2017 Week 9 NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)

The Jaguars entered the season near the top of my underrated list and I’ve taken them in 6 of 7 games so far this season, covering the spread in 4 of those 6 games. However, the general public is starting to catch on that this is a legitimate team, led by arguably the best defense in the NFL. They open as 5.5 point favorites this week against the Bengals, after being -3 on the early line last week. As a result of that line movement, we’ve lost all line value with the Jaguars, as the Bengals are an underrated team.

The Bengals have played better offensively since firing their offensive coordinator after the first 2 games of the season and they should have a better turnover margin going forward after going -10 through the first 7 games of the season, as turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. I only have them about 1.5 points worse than the Jaguars, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the visitors at 5.5. The Jaguars’ defense is strong, but their offense is not and they have to face a tough Cincinnati defense this week. With that in mind, I’m taking the Bengals here for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a no confidence pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 Cincinnati Bengals 14

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +5.5

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)

The Broncos opened the season 3-1, but have lost 3 straight games since the bye. Their defense has remained incredible, giving up a total of 42 first downs and 4 offensive touchdowns to the Giants, Chargers, and Chiefs combined, but their offense has struggled mightily to move the ball and they are -9 in turnover margin over that 3 game stretch (11-2). The good news is turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For example, the Broncos had a -3 turnover margin last week and teams, on average, follow up a -3 turnover margin with a turnover margin of around -0.1, essentially even. On the season, the Broncos are -11 in turnover margin, but still rank 5th in first down rate differential at 4.27%, tied with Philadelphia.

In an attempt to stop the turnovers, the Broncos have switched quarterbacks from Trevor Siemian (6 interceptions in the last 3 games) to Brock Osweiler. Osweiler might not be an upgrade over Siemian, but he should do a better job of avoiding turnovers than his predecessor. Osweiler also gets talented wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders back from injury, for the first time since he injured his ankle week 6 against the Giants. It’s no coincidence that the 2.5 games he missed coincided with this terrible offensive stretch. With him back out there, it makes things easier for this whole offense.

The problem is the Broncos have arguably their toughest game of the season this week. Not only do they have to travel to Philadelphia to play the 7-1 Eagles, but the Eagles are in a great spot with a bye week on deck, while the Broncos have to turn around and play another tough game at home against New England next week. Home favorites of 6+ are 44-15 ATS since 2002 before a regular season bye, while teams are 40-70 ATS since 2014 before being home underdogs of 4 or more (Denver is +5.5 against the Patriots on the early line). We’re not really getting much line value with the Eagles because the Broncos are an underrated team, but the Eagles are worth a bet because they’re in such a good spot schedule wise.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-2) at New York Jets (3-5)

The Bills beat the Raiders 34-14 last week, triggering a movement in this game’s line from BUF -2.5 @ NYJ last week on the early line to -3.5 this week. However, that final score is deceiving, as the Raiders won both the first down and the yardage battle. The Bills were able to win by 20 because they won the turnover battle by 4 and brought one back for a touchdown, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. The average turnover margin for a team that won the turnover battle by 4 in their previous game is +0.0, the same as the turnover margin for a team that previously lost the turnover battle by 4.

The Bills have been pretty reliant on the turnover margin so far this season, as they lead the league with a +14 turnover margin. They’re unlikely to continue winning the turnover battle at that same rate, which will have a noticeable effect on the scoreboard. They rank just 28th in first down rate differential at -3.74%, only one spot ahead of the 29th ranked Jets (-5.05%). Adding Kelvin Benjamin to this receiving corps via trade will help in future weeks, but he’s unlikely to be much help on Thursday Night Football after just being acquired from Carolina on Tuesday.

The Jets aren’t a very good team, but they’re not the worst and they’ve played pretty well at home this season (4-0 ATS), defeating the Jaguars and Dolphins and playing the Falcons and Patriots close. Given that, we’re getting some line value with the Jets as 3.5 point home favorites because the Bills are overrated right now as a result of their turnover margin. 3.5 points doesn’t seem like a lot, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less and this could easily be a close game. This is just a low confidence pick, but the Jets should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: Low