2018 Week 15 NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (8-5) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

The Cowboys are obviously better offensively since acquiring wide receiver Amari Cooper, who has revitalized his career in Dallas, helping the Cowboys win 5 straight games and take control of the NFC East. I expect that streak to end this week though. Coming off of a huge upset win over the Saints and an overtime win over the Eagles that essentially clinched the division, the Cowboys probably won’t bring the same effort this week, especially since they’re basically locked into the #4 seed in the NFC, needing the Bears to lose twice in three games to have a chance to jump them.

Their seeding might be part of the reason why the Cowboys are resting right guard Zach Martin this week, as the All-Pro has dealt with injuries to both knees this season. That’s a huge loss, especially for an offensive line that could also sit left tackle Tyron Smith, who is also dealing with multiple injuries and did not practice in full this week. On defense, the Cowboys could hold out linebacker Sean Lee again, after he was limited all week in practice as well, and even if he does he play he’d likely have a limited role. They’ll also be without edge rush specialist Randy Gregory for personal reasons, also a big loss the way he’s been playing.

The Colts have injury issues as well, with left tackle Mark Glowinski and possibly safety Clayton Geathers and wide receiver TY Hilton out this week with injuries. They’ve had injury issues all season though and, if Hilton can play as a gametime decision, they’ll actually be much healthier this week than they have been for much of the season. Center Ryan Kelly is the most recent player to return to the lineup and he’ll be a big re-addition after a 3-game absence.

Despite injuries, the Colts have been better than their 7-6 record this season, as they rank 11th in point differential at +49 and 7th in first down rate differential at 3.39%. Injuries were part of the reason why they started 1-5, but they’ve since won 6 of 7 games. They are +12 in offensive touchdowns, as opposed to +2 for Dallas, and have 4 wins by more than a touchdown, as opposed to just 1 for Dallas.

The Colts haven’t faced the toughest schedule, but they’re still the 2nd toughest team the Cowboys have faced on their winning streak, outside of the Saints, who it took an incredible effort to beat in Dallas. In a much less meaningful game, out of conference, at much less than 100%, I don’t expect that same effort this week from the Cowboys. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but if Hilton plays and the line stays at -3, I’ll bump this up to high confidence.

Sunday Update: As promised, I’m bumping this up to high confidence with TY Hilton active and the line remaining at 3. The Cowboys got good news Sunday morning as well, with Tyron Smith, Sean Lee, and Randy Gregory active, but the Colts also have Clayton Geathers active and are as healthy as they’ve been all season with Hilton, Geathers, and Ryan Kelly active. The Cowboys, meanwhile, will be without stud right guard Zack Martin in a game that doesn’t mean as much for them as it does for the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (7-6) at Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1)

The Dolphins pulled off one of the craziest victories in recent memory last week, beating the New England Patriots on a last second lateral play that went 69 yards, pulling the 34-33 upset as 8-point home underdogs. Teams are typically flat the following week after big upset wins like that though, going 70-93 ATS over the past 30 years after a home win as underdogs of 6 or more, and I would expect the Dolphins especially to have difficulty matching last week’s intensity because of how crazy the ending was. The Dolphins won their Super Bowl last week in incredible fashion, but there could easily be a hangover effect this week.

This line is relatively high at Minnesota -7, but most of the Dolphins’ losses have not been close this season, as 5 of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their average margin of defeat is 15.50 points per game. Their 7 wins, on the other hand, have all come by 8 points or fewer, as the Dolphins have made a habit of squeaking out victories in close games. That’s the kind of habit that’s tough to maintain every week though and the Dolphins rank 25th in point differential at -55. That’s -55 point differential comes despite a +8 turnover margin, which is also the kind of habit that’s tough to maintain every week. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 28th at -4.81%, despite the 4th easiest schedule in terms of opponents’ DVOA.

The Dolphins have been better with Ryan Tannehill under center, but he’s not at 100%, dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries, and they are also missing top cornerback Xavien Howard, a massive loss on defense. The Vikings have disappointed this season, but they’re still a solid team and they’re healthier than they were earlier in the season. With the Vikings likely going to a much more balanced offensive attack under new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, I have this line calculated at Minnesota -10.5 and I like their chances of handing a likely flat Dolphins team their 6th double digit loss of the season. Without a better option this week, this is my Pick of the Week at -7.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (5-8) at Buffalo Bills (4-9)

Earlier in the week, I was strongly considering betting on the Lions in this game, for a couple of reasons. For one, the Lions typically play well against losing teams, while struggling against good teams. Since 2014, they are 20-12 ATS against teams with a losing record and they went 17-4 straight up against non-playoff teams between 2016 and 2017. The Bills certainly qualify at 4-9. Their offense has been better since getting Josh Allen back from injury a few weeks ago, but their defense takes a big hit with the losses of linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Taron Johnson and they could be without running back LeSean McCoy with injury as well this week.

On top of that, the Bills are in a terrible spot and could easily be looking forward to next week’s game in New England. With their season essentially over, the Bills might not bring their best effort against the Lions, ahead of a much bigger game. Since 2014, teams are 39-67 ATS before being double digit underdogs (the early line is New England -13), including 10-18 ATS as favorites, which the Bills are by 2.5 points in this one.

Unfortunately, the Lions have had their own injury issues in the past week, losing stud rookie defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, slot receiver Bruce Ellington, talented right tackle Rick Wagner, and top edge rusher Ezekiel Ansah. The Lions have lost as much as any team in the league since week 1, with those 4 players joining a list that includes starting wide receivers Marvin Jones and Golden Tate, starting running back Kerryon Johnson, and stud right guard TJ Lang. On top of that, quarterback Matt Stafford is less than 100% with a back injury. The Lions are pretty bad team right now and we’re not getting much line value with them at +2.5. The money line is worth a bet at +120, but I’d need at least +3 to consider betting this spread.

Final Update: The Bills will be without LeSean McCoy and backup Chris Ivory in this one, but the line has still climbed up to +3. Detroit is worth a small bet this week as the better team in the better spot, getting a field goal.

Detroit Lions 19 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (5-7-1) at Chicago Bears (9-4)

The Packers played arguably their best game of the season last week in their first game without long-time head coach Mike McCarthy, but the injuries have really started adding up for this team. Already without starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga, starting left guard Lane Taylor, dominant defensive lineman Mike Daniels, starting outside linebacker Nick Perry, and starting cornerback Kevin King, the Packers are likely also going to be without their other dominant defensive lineman Kenny Clark and replacement starting cornerback Bashaud Breeland, both of whom missed practice all week. The Clark injury in particular is a huge loss, but Breeland had been playing well too, in the absence of Kevin King, and they’ve lost a lot of depth in the secondary over the course of the season.

Despite those injuries and the Bears’ impressive victory over the Rams, this line shifted in Green Bay’s favor this week, going from Chicago -6 to Chicago -5.5. Casual bettors may think Green Bay’s issues are solved with McCarthy gone, but I’m not so sure about that and I don’t think casual bettors realize how banged up the Packers are right now, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. Given the state of the Packers’ roster right now, I have this line calculated at Chicago -7.5, so we’re getting good line value with the hosts.

The Bears might also still be a little underrated, even after last week’s big win, as that win was no fluke. Their 9-4 record is impressive, but they’re even better than that suggests, as their 4 losses came by a combined 14 points, including one game with a backup quarterback. Despite starting a backup quarterback for two games, the Bears still rank 1st in the NFL in first down rate differential at +6.49%, while the Packers are middle of the pack at +0.70%. At full strength, they’re much more talented than that suggests, but they’re far from that this week, so the Bears are worth a bet at -5.5.

Sunday Update: Bashaud Breeland and Lane Taylor will play for the Packers this week, but Kenny Clark is inactive, which is a huge loss. Without him and Mike Daniels on that defensive line, the Bears shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball at home. I’m leaving this as a medium confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 27 Green Bay Packers 19

Pick against the spread: Chicago -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (5-7-1) at Denver Broncos (6-7)

This line favored the Broncos by 6.5 points a week ago, but the line has since dropped all the way down to 2.5. Normally I love going against significant week-to-week line movements like that, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but I think that line movement was justified, even crossing key numbers of 3, 4, and 6. In fact, at 6.5, Cleveland might have been my Pick of the Week this week. The Broncos were underrated a few weeks ago, as they started the season with the toughest schedule in the league through 11 games, going 5-6, with close losses to the Texans, Rams, and Chiefs (twice) and wins over the Chargers, Steelers, and Seahawks. However, now they are a little overrated, as they’ve lost so many key players in recent weeks.

Just since week 9, the Broncos have lost starting wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, starting tight end Jeff Heuerman, top offensive lineman Matt Paradis, valuable edge rusher Shaq Barrett, top cornerback Chris Harris, and his replacement Isaac Yiadom. They also lost right guard Ron Leary, probably their 2nd best offensive lineman, for the season after week 6 and his replacement Max Garcia went down for the year a few weeks later. Now finally in the easier part of their schedule, the Broncos are a shell of their former selves. For this reason, it wasn’t a huge surprise that they lost in San Francisco last week.

This week, the Broncos return home to face the Browns, who are one of the worst teams the Broncos have faced this season in terms of record at 5-7-1, but they’re also better than their record suggests, as their offense has played significantly better since parting ways with head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Led by the emergence of rookies Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb, the Broncos have picked up first downs at a 42.45% rate in 5 games without Jackson and Haley, as opposed to 30.25% in their first 8 games. They’ve also played better defensively since getting talented every down middle linebacker Joe Schobert back from injury a few weeks ago, though they are not 100% on defense with top cornerback Denzel Ward set to miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion.

The Browns lost a lot of close games early in the season, with 3 of their first 4 losses coming by a field goal, and they arguably could be a playoff team right now if they began the season with Mayfield under center and anyone other than Hue Jackson as their head coach. They’ve certainly played like a playoff team in recent weeks, which is not something I expect out of the Broncos this week, given all of their injuries. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all real line value with the Browns at +2.5, so this is just a low confidence pick, but I like the Browns chances of winning straight up at +120. At the very least, this game is a toss up.

Cleveland Browns 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2.5

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at New York Jets: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (9-4) at New York Jets (4-9)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Texans have played a lot of close games this year. They are 9-4, but have just 4 wins by more than a touchdown, including just one road win by more than a touchdown, relevant considering this line is Houston -7. On the other hand, the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league, especially without suspended every down linebacker Darron Lee, so this line seems about right, even if the Texans are not quite as good as their record suggests.

The Jets won in Buffalo last week, but they lost the first down rate battle in that game by 2.66%, winning primarily because they won the turnover margin and converted a 4th down, which is not something that they can count on every week. The previous week, the Jets almost won in Tennessee, but they lost the first down rate battle in that game by 18.59%, losing the game despite blocking a punt and scoring a defensive touchdown. On the season, they rank just 31st in first down rate differential at -6.49%, significantly behind the #11 ranked Texans, who are at +2.08%. We’re not getting any line value with the Texans, so this is a no confidence pick, but they make more sense for pick ‘em purposes.

Houston Texans 24 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Houston -7

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (10-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-2)

These two teams met all the way back in week 1, with the Chiefs winning 38-28 in Los Angeles. That game swung on a few plays though, despite it being a 10-point game, as the Chargers turned the ball over twice and allowed a punt return touchdown (still the Chiefs’ only special teams touchdown of the season). The Chargers actually won the first down rate battle by 6.83%, picking up a first down or touchdown on 48.65% of offensive plays, as opposed to 41.92% for the Chiefs.

They could easily do so again this week and, if they do, they have a good chance to pull the upset. This game is in Kansas City, but the atmosphere won’t be much different, as Chiefs fans filled the Chargers’ stadium week 1, as most visiting fanbases do. Lacking homefield advantage in Los Angeles, the Chargers are 6-0 straight up (5-1 ATS) with an average margin of victory of 10.2 points per game in 6 games outside of Los Angeles this season. That is a trend that dates back to their final few years in San Diego, when they frequently had large visiting crowds, as they are 34-19-3 ATS away from home since 2012.

Divisional road underdogs typically do well in this spot anyway, as teams are 70-43 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs against a team that previously beat them as home favorites earlier in the season. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are in a terrible spot on a short week after going to overtime with the Ravens last week. Understandably teams are just 6-26 ATS on a short week on a Thursday night after an overtime game in the past 30 years.

I considered making this my Pick of the Week, but didn’t for a couple reasons. One is injury uncertainty. The Chiefs are pretty banged up on offense, missing left guard Cam Erving, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, and running back Spencer Ware, who is only starting because Kareem Hunt got kicked off the team, but their defense could be getting a big boost with Eric Berry returning from injury. I say “could” because it’s tough to know what kind of shape he’s going to be in for his first game in 15 months, after missing 28 straight games over the past 2 seasons with injury. He may not even play full snaps this week. On top of that, #1 receiver Tyreek Hill barely practiced this week with a foot injury.

The Chargers, meanwhile, might be getting star running back Melvin Gordon back from injury, but if he’s out again, they’ll also be down to their 3rd string running back. They have some injuries on defense as well, with cornerback Trevor Williams, defensive tackles Brandon Mebane and Corey Liuget, and middle linebacker Denzel Perryman all on the sidelines, but they’ve also gotten stud defensive end Joey Bosa back recently, giving them a dominant duo of Melvin Ingram and Bosa at defensive end, which has masked some of their issues at other positions like defensive tackle and linebacker. Their secondary is also playing at a high level, led by #1 cornerback Casey Hayward, dominant slot cornerback Desmond King, and stud rookie safety Derwin James.

The second reason I didn’t want to make this my Pick of the Week is the Chargers’ recent track record against the Chiefs. I normally don’t make too much of a team “having another team’s number” because the NFL changes so much and there usually isn’t a large enough sample size to make that claim, but the Chiefs have had the same head coach and defensive coordinator since 2013 and Philip Rivers is 2-9 against them, with 9 straight losses. That being said, he could easily exorcise those demons this week against a banged up Chiefs team that’s going to be exhausted on a short week and I like getting more than a field goal if the Chargers can’t pull the upset.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +3.5

Confidence: High