2018 Week 8 NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-6) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6)

Outside of the Bills, who are starting street free agent Derek Anderson right now, the Cardinals are easily the worst team in the NFL, ranking 31st in first down rate differential at -9.97% and in point differential at -92. Even in their one win, against these 49ers in San Francisco, they lost the first down rate battle by 12.60% and only were able to win because of a +5 turnover margin and a return touchdown, which is not sustainable week-to-week. They managed just 10 first downs to 33 for the 49ers in that game.

This time around, even though this game is in Arizona, I expect a different result. Despite also being 1-6 and starting backup quarterback CJ Beathard, the 49ers haven’t been terrible this season and actually rank around middle of the pack in first down rate differential on the season at +0.71%. Beathard has completed 62.4% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA and the offense has picked up first downs at a 37.12% rate in his 4 starts, not much below their rate in Garoppolo’s 3 starts, 41.30%.

The 49ers have been killed by the turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For example, the 49ers lost the turnover battle by 4 last week against the Rams, but teams with a turnover margin of -4, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. Even in games in which the 49ers have lost the turnover margin by 1 and 3 respectively, the 49ers hung within 2 points of the Chargers and 3 points of the Packers on the road, so if the 49ers’ -15 turnover margin stays steady, the result of that will be very noticeable on the scoreboard.

At the very least, it’s highly unlikely they keep up their current turnover pace, which would put them at -34 at the end of the season, the worst in recent memory. Even the winless Browns were just -28 last season and that was the highest mark since 2000. Facing a weak opponent this week, the 49ers could easily play turnover neutral football and get a relatively easy win on the road. As long as this line is under 3, which means the 49ers basically just have to win to cover, I like the 49ers a lot this week.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Arizona Cardinals 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) in London

These two teams almost met in the Super Bowl last year, but this year they’ve gotten off to disappointing 3-4 starts. The Jaguars have much more reason for concern though. While the Eagles’ 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points, the Jaguars are -30 in point differential and rank 15th in first down rate differential at +0.86%. The Jaguars defense has still played well overall, ranking 2nd in first down rate allowed at 30.73%, but their offense has been horrendous, ranking 27th in first down rate at 31.59%.

Blake Bortles’ regression to a subpar starting quarterback gets a lot of the blame, but the Jaguars have also had a lot of injuries around him. After losing likely #1 receiver Marqise Lee before the season even started, the Jaguars have lost running back Leonard Fournette, their top-3 tight ends, and their top-2 left tackles. They’ve run the ball somewhat effectively even without Fournette, but their offensive line has not played well and their receivers have consistently failed to get seperation.

They tried benching Bortles for backup Cody Kessler in their loss to the Texans last week, but that didn’t work, in large part because Kessler is a backup caliber quarterback who would not be an upgrade even on Bortles. Instead, the Jaguars will turn back to Bortles this week, as he at least gives them some upside under center, but he will be on a very short leash. An uncertain quarterback situation is never good for any offense, especially one with as little talent around the quarterback as the Jaguars. They’ll also be without top cornerback AJ Bouye with injury this week, as the injury bug has spread to their defense.

The Eagles, meanwhile, still resemble their Super Bowl team, ranking 6th in first down rate differential at +4.13%. They’ve just struggled in close games, most recently blowing a 17-0 4th quarter lead at home to the Panthers. They have some injuries, with defensive end Derek Barnett, safety Rodney McLeod, and running back Jay Ajayi all on injured reserve and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan yet to return from off-season back surgery, but they had injuries last year as well and are still a top-5 team on paper. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Jaguars in London, where the better team typically covers (favorites are 22-10 ATS all-time in neutral site games). I wish this line was still 3 where it briefly opened, but the shift is justifiable for Bouye’s mid-week injury and I have this line at -6 anyway, so the Eagles are worth a bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3.5

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1)

These two teams met in the post-season on this same field in what ended up being one of the craziest post-season finishes of all time, with the Vikings scoring on a 61-yard, last second touchdown to pull away with a 29-24 victory and advance to the NFC Championship game. That was a very evenly matched game, but a lot has changed since then. Both teams remain in contention in 2018, but the Saints have looked a lot better than the Vikings in doing it, going 5-1 with a +41 point differential and ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +3.74%, despite getting off to one of their signature slow starts (2-12 ATS in the first 2 games of the season since 2012, 54-38 ATS after week 2).

The Vikings, on the other hand, have a solid record, but have not looked good in doing it. Despite an easy schedule that has featured the Cardinals, Jets, and Bills, the Vikings are just +12 in point differential and rank just 21st in first down rate differential at -1.57%. The big problem for them has been injuries. After having the fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league in 2017, the Vikings have had numerous injuries to key players in 2018.

Defensive tackle Linval Joseph could return from a one-game absence this week, but that’s not a guarantee, as he didn’t get in a full practice all week. Defensive end Everson Griffen will be back after missing the last 5 games with mental health issues, but he probably won’t play every down immediately in his return. Even if those two play and play well, the Vikings will still be missing outside linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Andrew Sendejo, cornerback Mike Hughes, and cornerback Xavier Rhodes, four defensive starters. They will also be without left tackle Riley Reiff, left guard Tom Compton, and running back Dalvin Cook on the offensive side of the ball.

The Saints, meanwhile, are close to fully healthy and playing great football, after winning last week in a tough one on the road in Baltimore. Despite the wide talent gap between these two teams, the Saints are just 1 point road favorites in this one. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -4, so we’re getting significant line value that crosses the key number of 3. The Saints have a great chance to cover in a game they basically just need to win to cover. This is my Pick of the Week this week.

New Orleans Saints 26 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Los Angeles Rams (7-0)

The Rams are the last unbeaten team in the league at 7-0. They’ve undoubtedly played the best of any team in the league this season, but they are still a little overrated, as the public seems to think they are a perfect team because of their record. In reality, they’ve faced a pretty easy schedule, with games against the Cardinals, Raiders, and 49ers, all of whom are among the worst few teams in the league. Their other 4 wins have come against the Broncos, Seahawks, Vikings, and Chargers, so the Packers could easily be the toughest team they’ve faced thus far.

They’re also a banged up right now. Cooper Kupp will miss his 2nd straight game with a knee injury, while their defense has not been the same since week 3, when they lost cornerback Aqib Talib indefinitely to injury and when fellow starting cornerback Marcus Peters suffered a leg injury that seems to have sapped his effectiveness. Since that week 3 game, the Rams have just one win by more than a touchdown and it came last week in San Francisco in a game in which the 49ers turned it over 4 times, leading to a +4 turnover margin for the Rams. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis anyway and it’s not hard to see how the Rams could have a harder time forcing takeaways against an Aaron Rodgers led team than a CJ Beathard led team.

Despite that, this line is all the way up to 9, as the odds makers know they can bump up the line on any Rams game because the public thinks the Rams are invincible. For some context, this is the most points by which Rodgers has been an underdog in his entire career. He’s only been an underdogs of 7+ points twice in his career, both times in the post-season and both times Rodgers and the Packers covered. Rodgers has also lost by more than 8 points just 17 times in 148 career starts, so he really doesn’t get blown out often.

The Packers were not playing great football before their bye, but they should be better coming out of the bye, as they get wide receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison and top cornerback Jaire Alexander back from injury. Rodgers is also as healthy as he’s been all year, as he got an extra week to rest the knee injury he’s been playing through since week 1. I have this line calculated at Rams -6.5, so we’re definitely getting some line value with the visitor. The Packers aren’t in a great spot with a trip to New England following this game, but the Packers won’t look past an undefeated team and the Rams are in a bad spot of their own with a trip to New Orleans on deck. I like the Packers chances of keeping this within a score.

Los Angeles Rams 33 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +9

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)

Typically the rule of thumb for betting Thursday Night Football is to take the home team as long as they are comparable to or better than their opponents and as long as it’s not a division game. Non-divisional home favorites are 32-15 ATS all-time on Thursday nights, including 13-5 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more. That makes a lot of sense, as it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent, especially if that opponent has a talent advantage as well.

That trend is certainly in play here, with the Dolphins traveling to Houston on a short week as 7.5 point underdogs. Putting the Dolphins at even more of a disadvantage is the fact that they’ll be without arguably their two best pass catchers due to injury, with both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills sidelined for this one. The Dolphins have solid depth at the wide receiver position, with both Jakeem Grant and Devante Parker capable of filling roles in 3-wide sets with slot receiver Danny Amendola, but this passing game could easily be out of sync with such limited practice time this week.

The Dolphins also have other problems besides the receiving corps. They’re 4-3, but they have a -26 point differential (4 wins by a combined 26 points, 3 losses by a combined 52 points) and rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.51%. They’re also starting backup quarterback Brock Osweiler for the 3rd straight week and, while he might not actually be that much of a downgrade from mediocre starter Ryan Tannehill, him starting just makes it more likely this passing game will be out of sync on a short week, with a backup quarterback throwing to unfamiliar receivers.

The Texans have some issues on offense too, with Deshaun Watson at less than 100%, playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, but their defense has played like a top-5 unit this year with all of their key players back healthy, ranking 3rd in first down rate allowed at 31.22%, only behind the Ravens and Jaguars. Overall, they rank 8th in first down rate differential at +2.47%. I wish we were getting more line value with the Texans, as I have these two teams about 4.5 points apart in my roster rankings, suggesting this line is accurate, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes and I would definitely bet them if the line went back down to 7 where it briefly opened, as the Texans should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Houston Texans 24 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -7.5

Confidence: Low

2018 Week 7 NFL Pick Results

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Week 7

Total Against the Spread: 9-5

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 0-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 2-2

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 3-2

Low Confidence Picks: 2-1

No Confidence Picks: 4-2

Upset Picks: 1-0

2018

Total Against the Spread: 63-41-3 (60.28%)

Pick of the Week: 3-3-1

High Confidence Picks: 7-5

Medium Confidence Picks: 21-11

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 31-19-1 (61.76%)

Low Confidence Picks: 11-10

No Confidence Picks: 21-12-2

Upset Picks: 9-9-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 748-640-39 (53.78%)

Pick of the Week: 54-37-3 (59.04%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 361-265-15 (57.49%)

Upset Picks: 116-145-1 (44.47%)