2018 Week 9 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-5-1)

I’ve been going against the Chiefs in recent weeks because when everyone knows a team is good, it’s tough to get good line value with them. As well as they’ve played, they are just 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games. This week though, it’s the Chiefs or nothing in this game, as the Browns are unbettable in the wake of their coaching change. It’s not that Hue Jackson was doing a good job or anything, but with both him and Todd Haley going out the door and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams taking over as interim head coach, the Browns’ offense is now in the hands of running backs coach Freddie Kitchens, a career position coach who has never called plays at any level. With an inexperienced rookie quarterback under center and a banged up receiving corps, the Browns could easily be a dysfunctional mess on offense this week, more so than usual.

The Browns haven’t been playing well in recent weeks anyway, hence why Jackson was let go. After a promising 2-2-1 start, the Browns have lost 3 straight and sit at 2-5-1 with a -41 point differential (27th in the NFL). That’s despite the fact that they’ve benefited from a league leading +11 turnover margin, which is not reliable week-to-week. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank just 30th at -6.07%, only ahead of the Cardinals and the Bills.

The Chiefs are also in a great spot because they have another easy game against the Cardinals on deck, a game in which they are 14.5-point favorites on the early line. Favorites of 7+ are 79-49 ATS before being favored by 7+ again the following week, as top level teams tend to take care of business against inferior teams with no upcoming distractions on their schedule. The Chiefs still have issues on defense and Justin Houston could be held out of a game they can easily win without him, despite his return to practice after a 3-week absence this week, so it’s hard to get too excited about the Chiefs as 9-point road favorites, but this could easily be a blowout in Cleveland.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (5-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

I was hoping the Chargers would get Joey Bosa back from injury following their week 8 bye because I think with him healthy they are a legitimate contender, but would likely not be considered one by the general public, giving us some deflated lines with them. Bosa is expected to still need a few more weeks though and, at the very least, is out for this game in Seattle. Despite that, I still like the Chargers a lot this week as 1.5 point road favorites. Even without Bosa, the Chargers rank 5th in first down rate differential at +4.48%. Their defense has been underwhelming, ranking 20th in first down rate allowed at 37.33%, but their offense has been strong with Philip Rivers playing as well as he ever has and plenty of weapons around him, picking up first downs or touchdowns on 41.81% of offensive snaps.

Making that even more impressive is the fact that they basically have no homefield advantage, as their home games are usually overtaken by visiting fans. Going into Seattle is no easy task, but the Chargers are used to playing well in hostile environments and are 31-20-3 ATS away from home since 2012. This is also far from the same Seattle team we are used to, as a result of all their defensive losses. They are 4-3 and have won 4 of 5, with their one loss in that span coming by 2 points to the Rams, but they’ve also benefited from a +10 turnover margin, which they are not necessarily going to be able to rely on going forward, given how inconsistent turnovers are week-to-week. In first down rate, they rank just 24th at -3.15%, with both their offense and defense ranking below average.

This is also a much better spot for the Chargers than the Seahawks, as the Chargers follow this game with a trip to Oakland to play the hapless Raiders, while the Seahawks have to go to Los Angeles and take on the currently undefeated Rams. Underdogs are 84-51 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be much more focused with an easier game on deck rather than a harder one that could potentially be a distraction. I know we’re only getting a point and a half with the Chargers, but the logic stands, as that game in Los Angeles has likely been circled on the calendar by the Seahawks for months. Last time they played the Rams, they almost lost in Arizona the week prior. We’re also getting good line value with the Chargers, who I have calculated as 3-point road favorites in this game, so the Chargers are an obvious choice in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Seattle Seahawks 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +1.5

Confidence: High

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at Washington Redskins (5-2)

The Redskins were on my overrated list at the beginning of the week, just because I didn’t think their 5-2 record was indicative of how they’ve played. They’ve benefitted from a 3-0 record in games decided by 7 points or less and a +7 turnover margin, but turnover margins are highly inconsistent week-to-week, so they can’t keep relying on that to win them close games, and they rank just 22nd in first down rate differential at -0.91%.

Given that, I was shocked when they opened as mere 1.5-point home favorites over a banged up Falcons team. The Redskins are not as good as their 5-2 record, but they still have a solid team. The Falcons, meanwhile, are incredibly banged up on defense, missing safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen and linebacker Deion Jones, three of their best defensive players from a defense that had the 3rd fewest adjusted games lost to injury in 2017.

As a result, they rank dead last in first down rate allowed, giving up a first down or touchdown on 45.18% of defensive snaps. They’ve allowed 180 first downs and 26 offensive touchdowns through just 7 games, which puts them on pace for 411 first downs and 59 offensive touchdowns allowed on the season, both of which would be the most since the 1981 Baltimore Colts. Their offense has played well, ranking 8th in first down rate at 40.27%, but that’s not enough to keep up with what their defense is allowing (28th in first down rate differential) and they aren’t healthy on that side of the ball either, with running back Devonta Freeman and starting guards Andy Levitre and Brandon Fusco out indefinitely.

This line suggests the Falcons are better than a solid Redskins team, but they haven’t shown that in recent weeks, with their only recent wins coming by a combined 8 points against the Buccaneers and Giants. I have the Redskins 4 points better than the Falcons in my rankings right now, suggesting they should be favored by about a touchdown. The Redskins have a big injury with left tackle Trent Williams injured, but backup Ty Nsekhe has played alright in his absence in recent years and the Redskins also get a big mid-week addition with safety HaHa Clinton-Dix coming over in a trade with the Packers, in the middle of arguably the best season of his career. In a game where they basically just need to win to cover, the Redskins are an obvious Pick of the Week choice in a 13-game week.

Washington Redskins 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: Washington -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (1-7)

Things have gone from bad to worse for the 49ers. Already without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season with a torn ACL, now backup CJ Beathard is dealing with a hand and wrist injury on his throwing arm. Beathard is still expected to play, but he barely practiced on a short week and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be anywhere near 100% or if could get pulled mid-game for backup Nick Mullens, a second year undrafted free agent who has never thrown a pass in a regular season game. The 49ers will also be without key defensive players Reuben Foster and Jaquiski Tartt, who were very much missed as the 49ers blew a two score 4th quarter lead to the Cardinals last week.

The Raiders are not in good shape either, with a mediocre roster and all sorts of reported issues in their locker room, in their first year under new head coach Jon Gruden. They’re a little bit better of a team though and they have by far the better quarterback situation, which is important on a short week. It’s also worth noting that this is basically a home game for the Raiders too, as they play about an hour from the 49ers, so the 49ers shouldn’t get more than a point if anything for homefield advantage, even on a short week. I have this line calculated at about even. We’re not getting many points with the Raiders as 2.5 point underdogs though, so this is a pretty low confidence pick. It’s hard to get excited about backing either side in this one anyway, as this is two terrible teams playing on a short week.

Update: Beathard is active for this game, but Mullen will start as they feel he’s a better option than a less than 100% Beathard. That may be true, but the odds are heavily against Mullen performing well in this one. He’s just the 5th undrafted free agent in the past 30 years under the age of 24 to start at quarterback for a team. The previous 4 (Doug Johnson, Matt Moore, Jeff Tuel and Connor Shaw) had a combined 60.0 QB rating with a 2-5 record in 7 starts. It’ll be even more challenging for Mullen making his debut on a short week with limited first team reps. The Raiders still are not an appealing bet, even if the line movement from +2.5 to -1.5 is largely insignificant, but they are the safer bet for pick ’em purposes.

Oakland Raiders 23 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1.5

Confidence: None

2018 Week 8 NFL Pick Results

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Week 8

Total Against the Spread: 10-4

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 0-1

Medium Confidence Picks: 3-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 4-2

Low Confidence Picks: 3-1

No Confidence Picks: 3-1

Upset Picks: 1-0

2018

Total Against the Spread: 73-45-3 (61.57%)

Pick of the Week: 4-3-1

High Confidence Picks: 7-6

Medium Confidence Picks: 24-12

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 35-21-1 (62.28%)

Low Confidence Picks: 14-11

No Confidence Picks: 24-13-2

Upset Picks: 10-9-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 764-653-39 (53.81%)

Pick of the Week: 55-37-3 (59.47%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 365-267-15 (57.57%)

Upset Picks: 117-145-1 (44.68%)