2019 NFL Season Previews

San Francisco 49ers 2019 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Quarterback

After going 7-25 in a two-year stretch from 2015-2016, the 49ers hit the reset button during the 2017 off-season, bringing in Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to be their head coach and GM respectively. Shanahan was arguably the hottest coaching candidate of his class, as the son of former Super Bowl winning head coach Mike Shanahan was fresh off coordinating a Falcons offense that came painfully close to winning the Super Bowl. Shanahan’s expertise working with quarterbacks was likely one of the reasons the 49ers were interested in him and, taking over a roster without an obvious quarterback of the future (2016 starting quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert weren’t under contract for 2017), Shanahan had the opportunity to pick his own long-term guy under center.

Shanahan evidently did not find a quarterback to his liking in the 2017 off-season, using a 3rd round pick on unheralded Iowa quarterback CJ Beathard and signing journeyman Brian Hoyer, rather than making a splash move for a quarterback. With Hoyer and Beathard both struggling, the start of Shanahan/Lynch era in San Francisco looked similar to the previous two seasons, with the 49ers losing each of their first 9 games of the season.

That changed when the 49ers got a call from Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots at the trade deadline. With Tom Brady still playing at a high level and Jimmy Garoppolo set to hit unrestricted free agency in the 2018 off-season, suddenly the quarterback the 49ers were told was not available the previous off-season became very available. The 49ers were able to poach Garoppolo from the Patriots for a 2018 2nd round pick and Shanahan got the quarterback he had his eye on since he was the Browns’ offensive coordinator during the 2014 NFL Draft (they went with Johnny Manziel instead because the owner demanded it).

The 49ers gave Garoppolo about a month to learn the playbook before putting him into action, but once on the field Garoppolo wasted no time in making this look like a completely different football team, as the 49ers won all 5 of Garoppolo’s starts, after winning just 1 of their first 11 games. After picking up first downs at a 30.75% rate in the first 11 games of the season, the 49ers picked up first downs at a 38.39% rate in Garoppolo’s 5 starts. Garoppolo completed 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.76 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions and was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked quarterback during the final 5 weeks of the season.

Garoppolo was still unproven, with only 7 career starts and 272 career pass attempts under his belt heading into free agency last off-season, but he won all 7 of those games and had a 99.7 QB rating on those 272 attempts. Especially after they had just surrendered a 2nd round pick to acquire him, the 49ers had no choice but to pay up to keep Garoppolo (137.5 million over 5 years), but the 49ers seemed more than happy to do it. They had found their quarterback of the future and a team that had been sitting in the basement of the NFC West for about two and a half years suddenly had a lot of hope for the future.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, that hope was quickly put on hold when the 2018 season started. Not only did the 49ers lose 2 of their first 3 games, but they also lost Garoppolo to a torn ACL late in their week 3 loss in Kansas City. Despite the team’s underwhelming record, Garoppolo was still playing well before going down, averaging 8.07 yards per attempt and leading an offense that picked up first downs at a 41.30% rate.

With Garoppolo out, the 49ers were forced to turn back to CJ Beathard and subsequently lost each of their next 5 games. Not only did their first down rate drop to 35.17% in those 5 games, but Beathard turned the ball over 10 times by himself. A hand injury forced Beathard out of their week 9 Thursday night game against the Raiders, but that turned out to be a blessing in disguise as former 3rd string quarterback Nick Mullens led the 49ers to victory against the Raiders and kept the starting job the rest of the way.

In Mullens’ 8 starts, the 49ers picked up first downs at a 37.80% rate and Mullens turned the ball over 10 times, the same amount of turnovers as Beathard had in almost half the amount of starts. That first down rate would have been most equivalent to the Seahawks, who finished 12th in first down rate. The 49ers still went just 3-5 in those 8 games, but that wasn’t really Mullens’ fault. Aside from those 10 turnovers, Mullens had 13 touchdowns and averaged 8.31 yards per attempt on 274 attempts.

The problem was the defense, which not only allowed opponents to move the chains at a 37.60% rate in those 8 games, but also collected just 2 takeaways (and a record low 7 takeaways on the season). The 49ers made significant moves this off-season to improve their defense (more on those later), but even if they hadn’t the 49ers would likely have more takeaways this season, just because of the randomness of takeaways. The 49ers didn’t have a particularly good defense in 2017 either, but still managed almost three times as many takeaways (20). That’s not that many takeaways (would have ranked 16th in the NFL in 2018) and if the 49ers can get that to that number in 2019 that alone should translate to a couple more wins for a team that lost 6 games by 8 points or fewer in 2018.

Add in the fact that Garoppolo should be ready for training camp and it’s not hard to see how the 49ers could make a big leap in wins in 2019, after going 4-12 in 2018. Not only did Mullens prove himself to be a capable long-term backup behind Garoppolo, but their offensive performance in his starts suggests that there’s a good deal of talent around the quarterback as well. Garoppolo is still pretty unproven, with just 10 career starts in 5 seasons in the league, and might not be 100% immediately in his return from injury, but there’s plenty of potential for this offense in 2019.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The most talented player the 49ers have around Garoppolo is tight end George Kittle, who not only led the team in receiving yards with 1,377, but finished 8th in the league overall and set the record for most receiving yards ever in a season by a tight end, despite inconsistent quarterback play. Quarterbacks had a 101.3 QB rating on 136 targets thrown to Kittle, as opposed to 83.2 to other targets. An adequate blocker as well, Kittle finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked tight end overall and is very much in the debate for top tight end in the league.

The 2017 5th round pick is a one-year wonder in terms of being a high level producer in the receiving game, but he showed a nice rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo down the stretch in 2017, finishing his rookie year with 15 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown in his final 5 games, which extrapolates to a 48/717/3 slash line over 16 games. With Garoppolo returning from injury, Kittle seems likely to produce at a high level again in 2018. He’ll be backed up by blocking specialist Garrett Celek, who caught just 5 passes on 277 snaps in 2018. Barring an injury to Kittle, Celek should serve in a similar role in 2019.

The 49ers will need more out of their wide receivers in 2019, after none of them topped 487 yards receiving last season. Kendrick Bourne led the way, but largely by default, as the 2017 undrafted free agent was their only wide receiver to play all 16 games and to run more than 300 routes. His 1.23 yards per route run average was underwhelming and he’s received borderline grades from PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league. He could continue playing a role in an unsettled receiving corps, but the 49ers used 2nd and 3rd round picks on wide receivers in the draft, taking South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel and Baylor’s Jalen Hurd, so Bourne also isn’t a lock for the final roster.

Second year receiver Dante Pettis has the best chance to lead this wide receiver group. He struggled with injuries early in his rookie year, but finished strong with 20 catches for 355 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 5 games, 64/1136/13 extrapolated over 16 games. The 44th overall pick in 2018, Pettis has obvious upside and could easily make a second year leap. He’s the closest thing the 49ers have to a #1 wide receiver right now.

The 49ers are also hoping for a healthier season from veteran Marquise Goodwin, who led them in receiving with a 56/962/2 slash line in 2017, but was limited to 23/395/4 in 11 games in 2018. Goodwin showed great chemistry with Jimmy Garoppolo down the stretch in 2017, catching 29 passes for 384 yards and a touchdown in 5 games, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of producing at the level he did in 2017 (his 2nd highest receiving total in 6 years in the league is 431) and he’s been plagued by injuries for much of his career. He has some bounce back potential, but also could get lost in a more crowded receiving corps.

Goodwin will compete for playing time with Bourne and the two rookies, who both are pretty raw entering the league. Also in the mix is slot specialist Trent Taylor, who had a 43/430/2 slash line as a 5th round rookie in 2017, but struggled to earn playing time in 2018 and finished at 26/215/1, and veteran journeyman Jordan Matthews, who averaged 891 yards per season from 2014-2016, but has caught just 45 passes in 2 seasons since due to injury. Like Bourne, Taylor and Matthews are not locks for the final roster. It’s a much deeper receiving corps, but they lack a clear #1 wideout and will continue relying heavily on tight end George Kittle.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another skill position player who made a big impact on offense for the 49ers last season is running back Matt Breida. Breida was expected to be the 49ers’ 3rd running back at best last season, but lead back Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL on the last play of training camp and Breida earned the lead back job by significantly outperforming veteran backup running back Alfred Morris, who averaged just 3.86 yards per carry on the season in 111 carries and had just 34 carries in the final 8 weeks of the season. For comparison, Breida averaged a whopping 5.32 yards per carry on his 153 carries, 2nd in the NFL among running backs with at least 150 carries. That’s despite the fact he spent most of the year dealing with leg injuries, which limited him to 14 games and prevented the coaching staff from giving him more than 17 carries in a game.

Even if Breida is healthier in 2019, he’s unlikely to average the same average per carry. Not only is it very tough to average 5+ yards per carry in back-to-back seasons (63 of the last 69 running backs to top 5 yards per carry on 150+ carries did not repeat the feat the following season), but a lot of Breida’s yardage came on long runs. He had 42.5% of his rushing yards on 14 carries of 15 yards or more and averaged just 3.32 yards per carry on his other 141 carries. In terms of carry success rate, he ranked just 30th out of 47 qualifying running backs. Something similar to the 4.43 YPC average he had in 2017, when he didn’t have a single of his 105 carries go for more than 33 yards, is more likely.

Fortunately, the 49ers shouldn’t have to rely on Breida as the lead back in 2019. Not only do they get Jerick McKinnon back, but the 49ers also signed veteran running back Tevin Coleman away from Kyle Shanahan’s former team the Atlanta Falcons this season. Coleman also had an impressive YPC average last season, averaging 4.79 yards per carry on 167 carries, but, like Breida, much of his yardage came on a few carries. He had 48.5% of his yards on his 15 longest carries and averaged just 2.71 yards per carry on his other carries, while ranking 37th out of 47 qualifying in carry success rate. Coleman has averaged 4.43 yards per carry on 132 carries per season in 4 years in the league, primarily as a backup to Devonta Freeman, but it’s concerning he wasn’t able to run away with the lead back job in Atlanta last season, despite an injury to Freeman that left the Falcons without another capable runner.

McKinnon, meanwhile, has averaged just 4.05 yards per carry in his career and is coming off of a major injury, but he ran behind a poor offensive line in Minnesota before coming to San Francisco and the 49ers clearly valued him highly last off-season, signing him to a 4-year, 30 million dollar deal that guaranteed him 12.5 million in the first year. His biggest value to the 49ers will be on passing downs. McKinnon had 51 catches as a part-time player in his last healthy season in Minnesota and the 49ers probably had visions of increasing that number in 2018 had he stayed healthy.

Matt Breida caught 27 passes last season and Tevin Coleman had a 31/421/3 receiving slash line in 2016 with Shanahan in Atlanta, but McKinnon is a different caliber player in the passing game. He should play the majority of passing snaps, with the running snaps likely being split between McKinnon, Breida, and Coleman based on performance. Unproven backs Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert, who flashed with 66 carries for 266 yards and 34 carries for 261 yards respectively in limited action in 2018, will also compete for a roster spot and 3rd round wide receiver Jalen Hurd, who is a former running back, could also see some carries in a Cordarrelle Patterson role. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk should also be good for at least 30 catches out of the backfield, a number he’s topped in 4 straight seasons, and his 285 snaps played led all fullbacks in the NFL in 2018. The 49ers have plenty of options, but lack a clear lead back. If Brieda and Coleman don’t have as many big carries as they had last season, the 49ers may struggle to average the 4.40 yards per carry (12th in the NFL) that they averaged last season.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Part of the reason why the 49ers had success on the ground last season was their strong run blocking. They were not as good in pass protection, allowing 48 sacks (9th in the NFL), though that was partially the result of quarterbacks holding the ball too long. The 49ers return all 5 starters on the offensive line, so they could easily have similar play in 2019, but their depth might be tested a little bit more, after their starting 5 upfront missed a combined 1 game in last season.

One player who could take a leap forward in 2019 is right tackle Mike McGlinchey. The 9th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the 49ers traded Trent Brown for almost nothing to clear room for McGlinchey, which could have easily backfired, but McGlinchey played well enough as a rookie to make people forget about Brown. He was only adequate in pass protection, but was a strong run blocker and finished as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked offensive tackle in 2018. McGlinchey has Pro-Bowl upside and could easily take another step forward in 2019, though that’s obviously not a guarantee.

McGlinchey could end up at left tackle eventually, but for now veteran Joe Staley remains locked in on the blindside. Though he’s going into his age 35 season, Staley is still playing at a high level, finishing 6th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2018, his 7th straight season in the top-17 among offensive tackles on PFF (including 5 seasons in the top-6). His age is obviously becoming a concern and sometimes players lose it quickly, but he could easily have another strong season.

The 49ers are not quite as strong at guard as they are at tackle, but they have a pair of solid starters there as well. Left guard Laken Tomlinson was a bust as a first round pick of the Lions in 2015, struggling in 24 starts in 2 seasons in Detroit before the 28th overall pick was sent to the 49ers for a 2019 5th round pick during the 2017 off-season, but he has proven to be a late bloomer in San Francisco, making 31 of 32 starts and earning average grades from PFF in both seasons. The 49ers locked him up on a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie contract last off-season and he should continue providing solid play at left guard.

At right guard, the 49ers were hoping Josh Garnett would prove to be a similar late bloomer, but the 2016 28th overall pick failed to lock down the starting job in training camp and ended up playing just 59 snaps on the season, while journeyman Mike Person made all 16 starts. Person was not bad, earning an average grade from PFF, but he’s started just 34 games in 8 seasons in the league and is now going into his age 31 season, so it’s possible 2018 will end up being the best season of his career. Still, he should be considered the heavy favorite to start over Garnett, who has not made a start since struggling through 11 starts as a rookie in 2016, when he finished 70th among 85 qualifying guards on PFF. Garnett missed all of 2017 with a knee injury and also dealt with foot injuries that caused him to be inactive for several games in 2018. With his 1.7 million dollar salary non-guaranteed, he’s not a lock for the final roster.

The weak point upfront for the 49ers last season was center, where Weston Richburg was a major disappointment. Signed to a 5-year, 47.5 million contract with 16.5 million guaranteed in the first year last off-season to solidify the center position, Richburg had the worst season of his 5-year career, finishing 33rd among 39 qualifying centers on PFF. Injuries were likely the culprit, as he had surgery on his knee and thigh this off-season. Richburg ranked 1st among centers on PFF in 2015 and 8th in 2016, so he has obvious bounce back potential, only in his age 28 season, but the injuries are starting to pile up for him. In addition to the knee injury that limited him in 2018, he was limited to 4 games by a concussion in 2017 and dealt with a hand injury for much of the 2016 season. It’s possible his best days are behind him, but he should be better in 2019 in 2018. This should remain a solid offensive line with all 5 starters returning. With Jimmy Garoppolo returning under center, this could easily be a top-10 offense in 2019.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As mentioned earlier, the bigger problem for the 49ers for most of last season was their defense. Not only did they finish 21st in first down rate allowed, they somehow managed just 7 takeaways all season, fewest ever in a full length NFL season. That combined with CJ Beathard’s propensity to turn the ball over in his limited action led to the 49ers finished dead last in turnover margin at -25. The good news for them is turnover margins tend to be unpredictable on a year-to-year basis. In fact, the past 10 teams with a turnover margin of -20 or worse, on average, had a turnover margin of +5 the following season.

The 49ers would likely force more takeaways in 2019 even without a boost of talent on defense (in 2017, they ranked 26th in first down rate allowed, but still managed a league average 20 takeaways), but the 49ers also spent significant resources on upgrading their defensive talent this off-season, armed with among the most cap space in the league and the #2 overall pick in the draft. They used that #2 overall pick on Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa, who could have a big immediate impact on this pass rush, but he wasn’t even the biggest addition they made at the defensive end position this off-season.

The 49ers also sent a 2020 2nd round pick to the Chiefs for franchise tagged defensive end Dee Ford, who they then locked up on a 5-year, 85.5 million dollar extension. The Chiefs did not think Ford was a great fit for their new defensive scheme and did not want to give him a long-term extension, but he’s a worthwhile addition for a 49ers team that still has the 3rd most cap space in the league (about 35 million) as of this writing. His contract is also relatively low risk, with only 19.5 million total guaranteed in the first year, so the 49ers could move on him from next off-season if he regresses significantly.

Ford was one of the most productive edge rushers in the league last season, with 13 sacks, 19 hits, and 46 hurries on 563 pass rush snaps (13.9% pressure rate). He’s not nearly as good of a player against the run and has a concerning injury history, missing most of the 2017 season with a back injury, but the 49ers could play him off the ball as an outside linebacker in obvious running situations and he’s not a one-year wonder, totaling 10 sacks, 8 hits, and 35 hurries in 2016 as well.

Ford and Bosa are obvious upgrades on the edge for a team that had just 17 sacks off the edge in 2019. Cassius Marsh and Ronald Blair led the way with 5.5 sacks each off the edge, but the former left as a free agent this off-season, while the latter profiles best as a rotational end. The 49ers used first round picks on defensive ends in 2015 and 2017, taking Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas respectively, but they combined for just 4 sacks in 2018 and have 9 sacks and 4 sacks respectively in their careers.

Armstead is a strong run stuffer at 6-7 292 and should continue seeing a significant role in base packages, but Thomas is reportedly on the trade block after the addition of Ford and Bosa. Thomas is still only going into his age 24 season and still has obvious upside, going 3rd overall just two years ago, but he doesn’t have a clear role on this defense right now. Like Armstead, Thomas is a bigger end at 6-3 280, so the 49ers could try him more frequently as an interior rusher to see if that jumpstarts his career. They are much deeper at defensive end this season than last season.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is another former first round pick on this defensive line, going 7th overall in 2016, but unlike Armstead and Thomas, he has panned out. He had 12 of the team’s 37 sacks (22nd in the NFL) by himself last season and also added 10 hits and 31 hurries on 544 pass rush snaps, an 9.7% pressure rate, impressive for a player who lined up on the interior for almost all of his pass rush snaps. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked qualifying interior defensive lineman overall and is no one-year wonder either, finishing 20th at his position in his 2nd season in the league in 2017 as well. Still only going into his age 25 season, his best days could easily still be ahead of him.

The other defensive tackle position next to Buckner is still unsettled. Earl Mitchell was nominally the starter last season, but he played just 363 mediocre snaps in 13 games and is no longer on the team. DJ Jones and Sheldon Day remain on the team, but they were equally mediocre snaps on 239 snaps and 275 snaps respectively and both have never played more than a rotational role in their career.

Veteran Cedric Thornton unretired this off-season and could play a role as well. He was once a strong run stuffer, but he struggled mightily in his final 2 seasons in the league before retiring last off-season. Now going into his age 31 season, it’s unclear if he can still contribute. The other defensive tackle spot next to Buckner figures to be handled by committee once again (with Solomon Thomas and Arik Armstead likely seeing snaps inside as well) and should remain a position of weakness.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The 49ers also made a big addition at linebacker this off-season, signing ex-Buccaneer linebacker Kwon Alexander to a 4-year, 54 million dollar deal that was the highest ever for an off ball linebacker until it was surpassed by CJ Mosley’s deal a few days later. Unlike the additions of Ford and Bosa, this signing is a bit head scratching. Not only was Alexander coming off of a torn ACL, but he’s never performed at the level the 49ers are paying him at, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked off ball linebacker in 2016. He’s a great athlete and holds up well in coverage, but he misses far too many tackles, missing 70 in 3 seasons before last year’s lost year due to injury.

Alexander is still young, only going into his age 25 season, and obviously the 49ers believe his best days are ahead of him, but it’s unclear who the 49ers were bidding against that also would have paid Alexander over 13.5 million annually. The one good thing about his contract is that only 14.5 million is guaranteed in the first year, so if he struggles off of injury the 49ers can let him go next off-season and cut their losses.

That being said, Alexander should by default be an upgrade over the different players they tried at the middle linebacker position last season. Outside linebacker Fred Warner was their only every down linebacker last season and he should continue playing the vast majority of the snaps, staying on the field with Alexander in nickel packages. Warner was more of a snap eater than an impact player, playing 1060 of the 49ers’ 1073 defensive players snaps, but only earning an average grade from PFF overall. Warner was only a 3rd round rookie though and could easily get better going forward. He might not play quite as many snaps this season, with Alexander likely to stay on the field over him in dime packages, but he could easily play at a higher level.

Malcolm Smith is currently penciled in as the 3rd linebacker. Smith has been a disappointment since signing a 5-year, 26.5 million dollar contract with the 49ers two off-seasons ago though and is not a lock for the role, after being forced to take a pay cut down to 1.2 million to keep his roster spot. Smith showed promise in limited action earlier in his career in Seattle, even becoming the most unlikely of Super Bowl MVPs in a game in which he didn’t even play half the snaps, but he has always struggled in a larger role and that’s unlikely to change, now going into his age 30 season. 3rd linebackers come off the field for a 5th defensive back in sub packages and rarely play more than half the snaps anymore, so that could work to his benefit, but I would be surprised if he made much of an impact this season.

Other options that the 49ers have for the 3rd linebacker role including using Dee Ford as an off ball linebacker in base packages or starting 2017 7th round pick Elijah Lee, who was underwhelming on 476 snaps last season. With Alexander coming in as an every down linebacker, this linebacking corps is upgrade by default, but they will lack an impact player unless Alexander becomes the player they expect or Warner takes a big leap forward in his 2nd season in the league.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The secondary is the one area the 49ers did not address this off-season. They were widely expected to sign a starting safety in a deep safety class in free agency, but they didn’t end up signing anyone and did not address the secondary in the draft until the 6th round. Jaquiski Tartt is locked into one safety spot and he’s developed into an above average starter, after the 2015 2nd round pick struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league, but his durability is a concern, as he’s missed 15 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons with injury.

Without a starter being added in free agency, the starting job at the other safety spot is totally up for grabs. Marcell Harris, DJ Reed, Adrian Colbert, Tyvis Powell, Antone Exum, and Jimmie Ward all made starts last season and all except Powell are still on the roster, but none of them played particularly well, hence why they cycled through so many players. Ward has the most experience of the group, with 31 career starts, but he’s also injury prone (missing 29 of 80 games in his career) and the 49ers value his versatility more than his talent. In 5 seasons in the league, he’s received below average grades from PFF in 3 seasons, including 2017 and 2018. He may play some safety, but he can also play both outside cornerback and slot cornerback as well.

Adrian Colbert is probably the favorite for the other starting safety job, if only because he started the first 6 games of the season last year before missing the rest of the season with an ankle injury. Colbert struggled mightily in those 6 games, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked safety, but he showed more promise as a rookie, when the 2017 7th round pick earned an above average grade on 320 snaps. Assuming he’s healthy, he has bounce back potential, but he’s no lock to keep his job if his struggles continue in training camp.

There have been rumors that the 49ers are going to move aging cornerback Richard Sherman to safety at some point in the future, rumors that Sherman basically confirmed himself, but at least for this season he seems likely to remain at cornerback, in his age 31 season. Sherman isn’t the player he was in his prime anymore, when he was arguably the top cornerback in the NFL, but he was still easily the 49ers’ top cornerback in 2018 and earned an above average grade from PFF for the 8th straight season. That’s despite the fact that he was coming off of a torn achilles and was never 100% all season, dealing with lingering leg issues. His durability is a serious question at this point, but if he’s healthier in 2019 that should be noticeable on the field.

At the other outside cornerback spot, starter Ahkello Witherspoon struggled mightily last season, finishing 128th among 131 qualifying cornerbacks on PFF. The 2017 3rd round pick was better as a rookie, finishing 41st among cornerbacks on 660 snaps, and has bounce back potential, but he’s not a lock to keep his starting job. Even with the 49ers not adding a top tier cornerback prospect in the draft, Witherspoon should still face competition from free agent acquisition Jason Verrett and 2018 3rd round pick Tarvarius Moore.

Verrett was only signed to a one-year deal that guaranteed him just 1 million (max value of 3.6 million), but he comes with a lot of upside. A first round pick in 2014, Verrett looked like one of the most promising young cornerbacks in the league at one point, finishing the 2015 season as PFF’s #2 ranked cornerback, but injuries have limited him to just 5 games in the 3 seasons since. Durability has always been a significant concern for him (even in 2015 he played just 14 games), as he’s played just 25 of a possible 80 games in 5 seasons in the league, thanks to multiple shoulder surgeries, multiple knee surgeries, and a torn achilles that cost him all of 2018.

Verrett is a worthwhile flyer, but he could easily just get hurt again and it’s unclear if he’ll ever regain his old form, now going on 28 years old and 4 years removed from that strong 2015 season. Moore also has upside, but managed to get on the field for just 232 snaps as a rookie. Perhaps he’ll make a leap from year 1 to year 2, but that’s hardly a given. Jimmie Ward is also probably in the mix for the other outside cornerback job, but he doesn’t have the same upside as Moore, Verrett, or Witherspoon.

Ward could be in the mix at slot cornerback as well, but K’Waun Williams is a solid slot specialist, earning above average grades from PFF in all 4 healthy seasons he’s been in the league (he missed 2016 after ankle surgery). The 49ers didn’t do much to address the secondary this off-season, but they have some bounce back candidates and they have players with upside.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The 49ers should be significantly better on both sides of the ball this year, with Jimmy Garoppolo coming back from injury and talent being added on defense. The 49ers should also have a significantly better turnover margin, which is very significant for a team that actually finished last season 19th in first down rate differential, despite everything that went wrong (4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league). Whether it’ll be enough to take the 49ers from 4 wins to the post-season is still a question, but they should be very much in the mix for a playoff spot.

It helps them that they are in a relatively weak division. The Seahawks continue to shed talent, while the Cardinals would likely need an All-Pro effort from rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to mask their other issues enough to make the post-season. Even the two time reigning NFC West champion Rams look vulnerable compared to a year ago, with Todd Gurley’s knee concerns and several off-season losses on both sides of the ball (including 2 starters on the offensive line).

Final Update: The 49ers did not have a good pre-season, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo looking rusty in his return from ACL surgery and the Seahawks acquiring defensive end Jadeveon Clowney from the Texans for pennies. This should still be a competitive team, but the NFC is probably too strong for them to make the post-season.

Prediction: 7-9, 3rd in NFC West

Los Angeles Rams 2019 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

In two years since hiring Sean McVay as head coach, the Rams have gone from perennial cellar dwellers to NFC Champions. In McVay’s first year, he took this offense from the worst in the league (dead last in first down rate in both 2015 and 2016) to one of the best (9th in first down rate in 2017) and in the process helped turn Jared Goff from a shell-shocked rookie with a 63.6 QB rating to Pro Bowler who looks deserving of having been the #1 overall pick in 2016.

In 2018, Goff made the Pro Bowl again and the Rams were able to make a deeper playoff run after being eliminated in the first round in 2017, going all the way to the Super Bowl before falling short. In total, Goff has completed 63.6% of his passes for an average of 8.18 YPA, 60 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 31 starts over the past two seasons, while finishing 15th and 8th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’ll be backed up by free agent signing Blake Bortles, who was a bust as the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft by the Jaguars, completing just 59.3% of his passes for an average of 6.70 YPA, 103 touchdowns, and 75 interceptions in 73 starts (24-49), but still has the upside to be a capable backup, especially in McVay’s quarterback friendly system.

The one problem with Goff is his contract status. Now going into the 4th year of his rookie deal, this is the last year the Rams will have Goff at a significantly below market value price. His 5th year option for 2020 is worth 22.783 million and the Rams undoubtedly would have to pay even more than that annually to keep him long-term on an extension. The Rams have been aggressive adding talent in the short window they have Goff under contract inexpensively, even trading away premium draft picks in a few cases.

Last off-season, they sent a 2nd round pick to the Chiefs for cornerback Marcus Peters and a 1st round pick to the Patriots for wide receiver Brandin Cooks to replace free agent departure Sammy Watkins, who they gave up a 2nd round pick for the previous off-season. Peters hasn’t even been extended long-term yet and the Rams still already have 6 players under contract making 11 million or more annually.

It’s a smart strategy if pays off with a Super Bowl in the short window they can keep all this talent together, but in the long-term after Goff gets paid it causes a couple problems. Not only will they need to let some players go, the Rams also don’t have premium draft picks on cost controlled rookie deals coming in behind them. Between their trades for veterans and the aggressive move they had to make to get Goff #1 overall in the first place, the Rams have made just one other pick in the top-60 in their past 4 drafts. Trades down have allowed them to pick 33 times total in those drafts, but 24 of those picks have come in the 4th round or later, so they’re really banking on their scouting department’s ability to find diamonds in the rough and their coaching staff’s ability to coach them up. It might be a worthwhile strategy, but 2019 could be their last great shot at a Super Bowl for a few years.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Rams have already had to let some players leave for financial reasons, as they return just three of five starters on the offensive line. Center John Sullivan was released ahead of a 5.25 million dollar non-guaranteed salary and left guard Rodger Saffold signed a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal with the Titans that the Rams simply did not have the financial flexibility to match. Sullivan is still available as a free agent, but his age is a major concern and he struggled more than he’s used to in 2018, so the Rams seem ready to turn the position over to 2018 4th round pick Brian Allen, who played just 37 snaps as a rookie. Allen could have growing pains in his first season as the starter, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to have a comparable season to Sullivan, who finished 34th among 39 qualifying centers in 2018.

Saffold is going to be the bigger loss, as he’s been a top-8 guard on Pro Football Focus in each of the past two seasons, excelling in pass protection, where he’s allowed just 4 sacks and 9 hits total in 31 starts. Like Sullivan, he’s expected to be replaced by a 2nd year player, 2018 3rd round pick Joe Noteboom (79 snaps as a rookie), but unlike Sullivan it’s hard to imagine Noteboom effectively replacing Saffold in his first season as a starter.

This is especially a concern because Jared Goff has seen his effectiveness drop significantly when pressured in his career. His completion percentage with a clean pocket ranked 9th in 2017 and 13th in 2018, but he fell to 35th out of 42 qualifying and 33rd out of 39 qualifying respectively when pressured. Goff has enjoyed good pass protection in each of the past two years, but he will probably be under fire more in 2019 and that could easily be noticeable in his completion percentage.

Left tackle Andrew Whitworth returns, but this could be his final season with the Rams and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he saw his play drop off. Signed to a 3-year, 33.75 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, Whitworth has been a big part of the reason for the Rams’ offensive turnaround, finishing as PFF’s 7th and 4th ranked offensive tackle in 2017 and 2018 respectively, but he’s going into an age 38 contract year. Given that he was considering retirement this off-season, this is very possibly his last season in the NFL. The Rams planned for the future this off-season by drafting tackles in the 3rd round (Oklahoma’s Bobby Evans) and 5th round (Wisconsin’s David Edwards), but Whitworth will still be missed when he’s gone and if his play drops off this season it would have a noticeable effect on this offense.

The right side of the offensive line should be more stable, with both right guard Austin Blythe and right tackle Rob Havenstein returning after making all 16 starts in 2018. Blythe originally got an opportunity because Jamon Brown, their regular starter, was suspended for the first two games of the season, but Blythe played so well that he kept the job permanently, while Brown was eventually waived and ended up with the Giants. Blythe finished the season as PFF’s 12th ranked guard, so he was quietly one of the better interior offensive linemen in the league. The 2016 7th round pick is a one-year wonder, making just 2 starts in his first 2 seasons in the league, but he could easily have another strong season in 2019. If that’s the case, he may be too expensive for the Rams to keep next off-season as an unrestricted free agent.

Havenstein is already locked up long-term, as the Rams gave him a very fair 4-year, 32.5 million dollar extension last off-season, ahead of the final year of his rookie deal, and unlike Blythe he’s proven himself more than once. He’s made 59 of 64 starts in 4 seasons in the league and has earned an above average grade on PFF in all 4 seasons, including a career best #3 finish in 2018. Only going into his age 27 season. He’s the most dependable offensive lineman on a line that lost a pair of starters, has a one-year wonder at right guard, and a left tackle in his late 30s. This offensive line is also unlikely to not lose a single start due to injury, something they benefited from in 2019. If this offense isn’t quite as effective in 2019, it will likely be because their offensive line play declined.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Another concern on this offense is the long-term durability of running back Todd Gurley’s knees. Gurley has been arguably the best all-purpose running back in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, totaling 2,556 rushing yards on 535 carries (4.78 yards per carry), 1,368 receiving yards on 123 catches (11.12 yards per catch), and 40 total touchdowns in 29 games. However, he has a history of knee issues dating back to college and had his usage cut drastically in the post-season, after missing a couple games with knee problems late in the season.

The Rams publicly don’t express concern about the long-term condition of Gurley’s knee, which is reportedly arthritic, but their off-season moves suggest they at least want good insurance in case he goes down again. They matched restricted free agent Malcolm Brown’s 2-year, 3.3 million dollar offer sheet from the Detroit Lions and then used a 3rd round pick on Memphis running back Darrell Henderson. Those two players could lessen Gurley’s workload, in an effort to keep him healthy later in the season.

An undrafted free agent in 2015, Brown has seen limited action in his career, averaging 4.02 yards per carry on just 128 carries in 4 seasons in the league and missing a golden opportunity to establish himself in Gurley’s absence last season because he was dealing with an injury of his own, but the Rams like him enough to keep him at an above minimum salary. He may ultimately end up being their 3rd running back this season, as Darrell Henderson is a great fit for this offense and can immediately serve in a change of pace role. The 5-8 208 pounder is faster even than his 4.49 40 time and was a dominant runner on outside zone runs (10.73 YPC the past 2 seasons), which the Rams run more than anyone. He and Brown would likely split carries if Gurley went down, but I expect Henderson to open the season the primary backup. This is a deep backfield, but Gurley’s injury concerns can’t be ignored.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The unit with the least concern on this offense is this receiving corps, which could actually be better this season, with Cooper Kupp returning from a torn ACL. After a promising rookie year in which the 2017 3rd round pick put up a 62/869/5 slash line, Kupp looked on his way to a breakout 2nd season in the league with 30 catches for 438 yards and 5 touchdowns in his first 5 games (96/1402/16 over 16 games), before suffering his first knee injury against the Broncos. He returned a few weeks later, but was not the same and ultimately ended up suffering a season ender in week 10.

His absence was felt, as the Rams had a 48.58% first down rate in those first 5 games, as opposed to 39.07% the rest of the way. That’s still a good number, but they went from being most equivalent to the #1 ranked Kansas City Chiefs with him healthy to being most equivalent to the #9 ranked Atlanta Falcons when he got hurt. Kupp has also been Jared Goff’s most dependable target over the past 2 seasons, as he’s completed 68.0% of his 150 targets to Kupp for 1,435 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, a 117.5 QB rating (98.0 QB rating to other targets).

Kupp is technically the Rams’ #3 receiver, but when he’s healthy the Rams use 3 receivers on almost every play, which is clearly their most effective package. The Rams’ receiving corps could be even better in 2019 if all three of their receivers are healthy, but that’s sometimes easier said than done. Injuries are part of the game and the Rams did not have an extraordinary amount of injuries last season by any measure, finishing with the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury overall.

Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are nominally their #1 and #2 receivers and both topped 1000 yards in 2018, putting up slash lines of 80/1204/5 and 86/1219/6 respectively. They were also both involved on end arounds, totaling 68 yards on 10 carries and 157 yards on 19 carries respectively. Cooks has now put up 1000+ receiving yards in each of the past 4 seasons and, while 2018 was Woods’ first 1000+ yard year, he’s shown signs of being this kind of player in the past, as he was on a 1000+ yard pace in 2017 before missing the final 4 games with injury and he had a 51/613/1 slash line in 13 games in 2016 on a very run heavy Bills offense.

With Cooks and Woods going into their age 26 and age 27 seasons respectively, both should continue playing at a high level. They might see their receiving stats dip a little bit, with Kupp coming back into the mix and shakier play on the offensive line forcing more incompletions, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see all three of the Rams’ wide receivers top 1000 yards if they can stay healthy enough. When everyone is healthy, the Rams like to run 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) on basically every snap, rather than changing things up by scenario, so all three receivers are every down players.

When one of their receivers is hurt, like Kupp was last year, they run more 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends). The Rams’ #4 receiver Josh Reynolds was not an every down player as Kupp’s replacement, while #2 tight end Gerald Everett saw his snap count increase from 15.9 per game to 31.6 per game in the 8 games Kupp missed completely. That makes sense, as the 6-3 240 pound Everett is their primary pass catching tight end (262 routes run on 380 snaps), while the 6-6 255 Tyler Higbee is primarily a blocker (544 blocking snaps on 789 snaps) whose role didn’t change much with Kupp out.

Everett didn’t do much with the extra playing time though, managing just 20 catches for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns in those 8 games, as opposed to 13 catches for 144 yards and 1 touchdown in their other 8 games. On the season, he barely outproduced Higbee, who had a 24/292/2 slash line. Everett was the 44th overall pick in 2017, their only other top-60 pick besides Goff from their past 4 drafts, so the Rams are obviously hoping for a 3rd year leap from him. Even if he does make a leap, he’s still unlikely to be that productive because of his role.

With Kupp returning from injury, Everett will go back to a smaller role, as the lone tight end in obvious passing situations, while Higbee will be the lone tight end the rest of the time. Higbee is relatively young too, going in the 4th round in 2016, but he doesn’t have the same receiving upside as Everett because of his limited athleticism and will probably max out as a strong blocker, which is all the Rams really need him to be. Reynolds, meanwhile, is nothing more than a reserve when all three receivers are healthy, which is for the best as he’s an obvious drop off from their other three receivers. This is arguably the most talented receiving corps in the NFL.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

In addition to the Rams’ losses on defense, they also lost a couple key players on defense, including defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh. Suh isn’t the player he was in his prime, but he still finished as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked interior defender and played 887 snaps, so he won’t be easy to replace. Suh is still available as of this writing, but the Rams have just about 6 million left in cap space and Suh is holding out for good money, so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to work out something to bring him back.

Assuming Suh does not return, the Rams will likely be replacing him with several players, as they didn’t add a replacement this off-season and don’t have an obvious one-to-one replacement on the roster. In base packages, he will likely be replaced by one of Tanzel Smart, Sebastian Joseph-Day, or Greg Gaines, who will compete for the nose tackle job in the Rams’ 3-4 defense. All three players have good size (6-1 300, 6-4 310, and 6-1 312 respectively), but they barely have any experience. Smart, a 6th round pick in 2017, is the only one with NFL experience and he’s played just 312 mediocre snaps. Joseph-Day was also a 6th round pick, but he didn’t play a snap as a rookie in 2018. Gaines, meanwhile, is a 4th round rookie. All three are complete projections to a larger role.

In sub packages, the Rams could give more playing time to Ethan Westbrooks (180 snaps in 2018) and could also use edge rusher John Franklin-Myers as an interior rusher more frequently. Westbrooks has been a rotational lineman for the Rams for 5 years, averaging 287 snaps per season, while John Franklin-Myers is a 2018 4th round pick who played 301 snaps as a rookie, primarily as an edge rusher, but has the size (6-4 288) to move inside. Neither player is particularly good, but Franklin-Myers at least has some upside.

Michael Brockers could also have a bigger role, but he already played 679 snaps last season and isn’t much of a pass rusher, so that’s not a great option. Brockers is a strong run stuffer, dominant at times, but he has a career 5.2% pressure rate in 7 seasons in the league and had just 1 sack, 2 hits, and 16 hurries on 370 pass rush snaps in 2018 (5.1%). For lack of a better option, the Rams will have to continue giving him significant pass rush snaps in 2019.

Fortunately, the Rams also have a back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year on the interior of their defensive front, which obviously elevates this whole group significantly. Aaron Donald has had some dominant years in the past, but he took that to a new level in 2018, totaling 20.5 sacks, 20 hits, and 65 hurries on 584 pass rush snaps, a ridiculous 18.2% pressure rate that not only led all interior defenders, but led all defenders across the board. He’s been PFF’s top ranked interior defender in each of the past 4 seasons, putting up a 16.3% pressure rate across those 4 seasons and also playing the run well. He took the title of the league’s best defensive player from JJ Watt a few years back and, still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, having never missed a game with injury, he could keep that title for another couple seasons at least. He’ll make everyone around him better by commanding frequent double teams, but this defensive line will still feel the absence of Ndamukong Suh.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

One free agent the Rams did bring back this off-season was Dante Fowler. With the Rams desperate for edge rush help, they sent a 2019 3rd round pick and a 2020 5th round pick to the Jaguars to acquire Fowler, a former high draft pick who had gotten buried on the depth chart in Jacksonville. Drafted 3rd overall in 2015, Fowler missed his entire rookie year with a torn ACL and made just one start in two and a half seasons before the Jaguars sent him to the Rams. He also served a one-game suspension at the start of the 2018 season for an off-the-field incident.

He showed enough as a pass rusher in limited action in Jacksonville (14 sacks, 11 hits, and 67 hurries on 868 pass rush snaps, a 10.6% pressure rate) that the Rams decided to take a chance on him, but he didn’t make much of an impact once he arrived, with 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and 20 hurries on 363 pass rush snaps (8.2% pressure rate), including playoffs. One of those hits was a key play in the NFC Championship, but for evaluative purposes one snap doesn’t trump all other snaps. Despite his overall underwhelming play, the Rams decided to keep him this off-season, but they overpaid on a one-year deal, giving him 12 million.

Even if we assume Fowler, who is only going into his age 25 season, still has a lot of untapped potential, there isn’t much upside to this deal, as it’s only a one-year deal and, if he breaks out, they’d undoubtedly need to give him a higher average annual value on his next contract if they are going to keep him beyond 2019. There’s also plenty of downside with this deal, as Fowler is not worth a 12 million dollar salary if he continues playing like he’s played thus far in his career. It would be one thing if they gave him a 3-year deal that guaranteed him 12 million in the first year and gave the Rams a couple team options for 2020 and 2021 at a similar salary if he breaks out, but this is a bit of a head scratching deal.

Samson Ebukam remains as the other starter opposite Dante Fowler. A 4th round pick in 2017, Ebukam played 351 nondescript snaps as a rookie, before moving into a starting role in 2018 and playing 692 snaps. He wasn’t much better than his rookie year though, with just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and 26 hurries on 304 pass rush snaps. The Rams are hoping he can keep developing, but he doesn’t have a huge upside and will likely max out as a solid starter at best.

The Rams also added veteran Clay Matthews to the mix in free agency, signing the ex-Packer to a 2-year deal worth up to 9.25 million. Matthews was once one of the better edge defenders in the league, but his age (33 in May) and a variety of injuries have sapped his abilities. He played all 16 games in 2018, but was more or less a replacement level player and had just 3.5 sacks, 7 hits, and 19 hurries on 376 pass rush snaps (8.0% pressure rate)

It’s not a surprise that the Packers, his team for 10 seasons, weren’t that interested in bringing him back this off-season, opting instead to get younger at the position. He’ll play a rotational role with the Rams and is unlikely to match the 756 snaps he played last season. His addition pushes John Franklin-Myers to the 4th edge defender spot and could free him up to play more snaps inside as an interior rusher in sub packages. The Rams have a decent trio of edge defenders, but lack an obvious difference maker.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Rams also lost starting middle linebacker Mark Barron this off-season, but he was only worth a fraction of his 8 million dollar non-guaranteed salary and struggled mightily last season, finishing 85th out of 96 qualifying off ball linebackers on Pro Football Focus. The Rams don’t have an obvious replacement for him though. 2018 5th round pick Micah Kiser is penciled in as the starter, but he played just one defensive snap as a rookie, so he’s a projection to a larger role.

Their only other real option is Bryce Hager, but the 2015 7th round pick has primarily been a special teams player to this point in his career, starting just 1 of 64 games on defense in 4 seasons in the league. This is an obvious position of weakness. Fortunately, the Rams like to use 3 safeties in sub packages, playing one closer to the line of scrimmage essentially as a linebacker. That’s something they could do even more of in 2019 with Barron gone.

Cory Littleton remains as an every down player at the other middle linebacker spot, following a mini-breakout year in 2018. Originally undrafted in 2016, Littleton made all 16 starts in 2018 after playing sparingly in his first 2 seasons in the league and earned an above average grade from PFF. He’s better in coverage than against the run, which he still has issues with, but, unless he proves to be a one-year wonder, he should be a useful part of this defense. He’s another player that the Rams will have to give a pay raise to keep beyond 2019, as he’s scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency next off-season. For now, he’s the best player in a thin linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

Even though the Rams went 13-3 last season, their defense struggled for most of the regular season and actually finished the regular season 26th in first down rate allowed. They were better when they had starting cornerback Aqib Talib healthy though, including in the post-season. In the 8 games he missed with an ankle injury, the Rams allowed opponents to pick up first downs at a 43.29% rate, most equivalent to the worst ranked Kansas City Chiefs, as opposed to 33.18% in his 11 healthy games, most equivalent to the 5th ranked Jacksonville Jaguars, a really significant swing. Talib earned an above average grade from Pro Football Focus for the 5th straight season, finishing 21st overall at his position, but his age is getting to be a concern, going into his age 33 season. Lacking a better option, the Rams will have to hope his abilities don’t have a sudden drop off, which is a possibility at his age.

Talib’s injury also coincided with an injury to fellow starting cornerback Marcus Peters, which is part of why they struggled so much in the games Talib didn’t play. Peters didn’t miss a game with injury, but played through a leg injury that was supposed to cost him 4-6 weeks and struggled mightily for about two months after sustaining the injury. Peters claims the injury is not to blame for his struggles, but it’s hard to believe that’s actually the case.

Peters was PFF’s 16th ranked cornerback in 2016 and their 14th ranked cornerback in 2017, but fell all the way to 100th out of 131 qualifying in 2018. He’s an obvious bounce back candidate and has all the motivation in the world to have a strong season, going into the final year of his rookie deal. If he can prove 2018 was a fluke, Peters will likely get paid among the top cornerbacks in the league by someone next off-season. The Rams are reportedly interested in locking him up long-term, but may need him to take a little bit of discount to keep him long-term, given their other financial commitments. Even after a down year, he may not give them a discount.

Nickell Robey-Coleman remains as the slot cornerback. The diminutive 5-8 180 pounder has struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play outside, but he’s one of the best pure slot cornerbacks in the NFL, earning above average grades from PFF in 3 straight seasons, including a 2018 season in which he was PFF’s 9th ranked cornerback on 556 snaps. He also had the 3rd fewest yards per coverage snap allowed on the slot among qualifying cornerbacks in 2018, allowing 0.71 yards per route run on 358 slot coverage snaps. He should continue excelling on the slot in 2019.

Reserve cornerbacks Sam Shields and Troy Hill both struggled mightily in Talib’s absence in 2018, but, while Hill is still on the roster, the Rams did use a 3rd round pick on Michigan cornerback David Long and he could easily be the 4th cornerback if he has a strong post-season. Considered a borderline first round pick by PFF, Long was a dominant cover cornerback in college and could prove to be a steal. With both Talib and Peters hitting free agency next off-season, he could easily become a starter in 2020 and, in the short-term, he gives them better insurance in case Talib or Peters miss time again.

At safety, the Rams lost LaMarcus Joyner, PFF’s 27th ranked safety in 2018, when he signed a 4-year, 42 million dollar deal with the Oakland Raiders, but the Rams did a good job of replacing him with Eric Weddle on a 2-year, 10.5 million dollar deal. Not only is that a much less expensive deal, but it doesn’t mess up the Rams’ compensatory pick formula because Weddle was released by his previous team. Weddle’s age is a concern (he turned 34 in January) and he reportedly considered retirement this off-season, but he actually played slightly better than Joyner last season, finishing as PFF’s 20th ranked safety with the Ravens.

Weddle’s best days are behind him and he could continue declining in 2019, but in his prime he was one of the best safeties in the NFL. A 12-year veteran, Weddle has earned an average or better grade from PFF in every season he’s been in the league, including 7 seasons in the top-5 at his position. He’s not the biggest name, but purely from a performance standpoint he deserves Hall of Fame consideration when all is said and done. The Rams are hoping he can continue to beat Father Time for another season.

Third year safety John Johnson remains the starter at the other safety spot and he looks like a budding star. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Johnson didn’t play much for the first few weeks of his career, but he’s made 27 straight starts and has finished 11th and 8th among safeties in the past 2 seasons respectively. Not even 24 until December, it’s possible his best football is still ahead of him and he could take another leap forward in 2019.

The Rams liked running three safety looks in obvious passing situations last season, to cover up for their lack of depth at linebacker, and that should remain the case again in 2019. Marqui Christian was their 3rd safety last year, but the Rams used a 2nd round pick on Washington safety Taylor Rapp and he figures to serve in that role this season. Rapp was a borderline first round talent, but concerns about his hip injury dropped him to the Rams at 61.

Assuming he’s healthy, he’ll fit perfectly as a 3rd safety behind Johnson and Weddle immediately and he’s likely viewed as Weddle’s eventual successor in the starting lineup. All three of the Rams’ safeties are versatile and can play in different spots (slot cornerback, linebacker), so we could see this trio on the field frequently in 2019. This secondary has the potential to be strong if their cornerbacks stay healthy, aging veterans like Aqib Talib and Eric Weddle continue playing well, and rookie Taylor Rapp’s hip injury turns out to be a non-issue. There’s some downside here, but this could be a much improved unit.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Rams should be Super Bowl contenders once again, but they are starting to leak talent, as they couldn’t afford to keep some key performers this off-season. They’ll have some big decisions to make next off-season, but for now they have enough talent to compete, even if they aren’t quite as good as 2018 on paper. They have a great coaching staff led by Sean McVay and legendary defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and if they continue to draft and develop like they have in recent years and some unproven players surprise, they could be better than they look on paper.

Prediction: 11-5, 1st in NFC West

Seattle Seahawks 2019 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks

Quarterback

When the Seahawks were making Super Bowls, they were able to have as much talent as they had because they had a cheap quarterback on a rookie deal, with Russell Wilson making just 526k and 662k respectively in their two Super Bowl appearance seasons. Wilson eventually got a 4-year, 87.6 million dollar extension and that started to affect the rest of the roster. It’s not the only reason why the Seahawks haven’t been true contenders in recent years, as their drafts have not nearly been as good and they’ve had bad injury luck, but they haven’t had a ton of financial flexibility to add outside talent to plug holes. They made the playoffs last season, but were the worst ranked playoff qualifier in first down rate differential at -0.04% (18th in the NFL) and lost in their first game against the Cowboys.

Heading into the final year of that extension this off-season, Wilson signed a record 4-year, 140 million dollar extension with a 65 million dollar signing bonus and that has already started to have an effect on this roster, which has continued to shed talent this off-season. I’ll go more in detail on the players they’ve lost later, but all of this being said, it’s hard to argue Wilson doesn’t deserve to get paid this much if he wants to. The Seahawks didn’t have much of a choice but to keep their most important player, as Wilson is the biggest reason why this team has at least been contending for playoff spots in recent years. Letting him go next off-season was not a real option, as it would have meant totally resetting the team.

In 7 years in the league since the Seahawks got a steal in the 3rd round in the 2012 NFL Draft, Wilson has completed 64.2% of his passes for an average of 7.86 YPA, 196 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions, while rushing for 3,651 yards and 16 touchdowns on 645 carries (5.66 YPC). He’s earned an above average grade from Pro Football Focus in all 7 seasons, including 5 seasons in the top-8 and a 7th place finish in 2018. He’s also made all 112 starts over that time period and, still only going into his age 31 season, I see no reason to expect any sort of drop off from him in 2019.

The Seahawks will need him to continue to stay healthy because their backup quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league, with Paxton Lynch and Geno Smith, a pair of former high draft picks who have busted, competing for the backup job. Lynch, the 26th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft by the Broncos, is one of the bigger quarterback busts in recent memory. Despite his high draft status, he had trouble getting on the field over the likes of Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler. When he actually got on the field, he showed why Siemian and Osweiler were playing over him, completing just 79 of 128 (61.7%) for 792 yards (6.19 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in just 4 starts, before the Broncos let him go last off-season, after just two seasons in Denver.

Lynch actually spent 2018 out of the league, taking a few tryout visits that never materialized into anything. Lynch is still only going into his age 25 season, but at this point even just winning the backup quarterback job in Seattle seems like a longshot. Geno Smith isn’t a great quarterback or anything, with a career 72.7 QB rating, but he’s at least experienced (31 career starts) and is good enough to be a backup somewhere. I would expect him to be the favorite for the job unless Lynch unexpectedly takes a big step forward. Either way, the Seahawks will be hoping Wilson can play all 16 games again.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Russell Wilson may be deserving of his massive salary based on pure talent, but given Wilson’s usage in this offense, it’s at least a little bit surprising they’d be willing to give him such a big contract. The Seahawks were one of the run heaviest team in the league last season, with their 534 run attempts being 2nd only to the Lamar Jackson led Ravens. Part of that is Wilson taking off, but even Wilson’s rushing attempts were down last year, as his 67 carries were a career low. After averaging 610 combined drop backs and carries in his first 6 seasons in the league, Wilson saw that number drop to 545 in 2018, lowest since his rookie season in 2012.

The Seahawks’ running game was effective in 2018, as they ranked 5th in the NFL in yards per carry at 4.79, so they will probably continue running this ultra-conservative offense in 2019, but it’s a bit of a strange move to pay someone 35 million dollars per year to be involved on only about half of the offensive snaps, especially given Wilson’s dual threat ability as a runner and a passer. It’s kind of like spending six figures on a nice car that you drive down the street to the store once a week.

In 2017, when the Seahawks struggled to run the ball, Wilson carried this offense, setting a career high with 691 combined drop backs and carries and accounting for 4,569 of the Seahawks’ 5,608 yards from scrimmage, a whopping 81.5%, easily the most in the NFL. That’s not an advisable strategy either, especially with the Seahawks now having more running back talent, but Wilson has proven time and time again he can handle anything you ask of him.

The Seahawks used a first round pick on San Diego State running back Rashaad Penny last year, expecting him to help turn around their running game, but he actually finished 3rd on the team in carries by a running back with 85. Instead, second year running back Chris Carson ended up making the biggest impact, rushing for 1,151 yards and 9 touchdowns on 247 carries (4.66 YPC), while finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked running back overall.

A 7th round pick in 2017, Carson showed flashes of being this kind of running back as a rookie, rushing for 208 yards on 49 carries (4.24 YPC) in 4 games, before breaking his leg and going down for the season, but his breakout 2018 was still a pleasant surprise for this team. Injuries have been a concern for Carson since college, part of why he fell in the draft, and he missed another 2 games in 2018, so durability will likely continue being an issue for him going forward, but if he stays healthy he could easily have another strong season.

Mike Davis was actually 2nd on the team in carries, rushing for 514 yards and 4 touchdowns on 112 carries (4.59 YPC), but he signed with the Bears this off-season, opening the door for Penny to become the clear #2 back. Penny also ran well last season, rushing for 419 yards and 2 touchdowns on 85 carries (4.93 YPC), and the Seahawks clearly like his talent, using a premium draft pick on him, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Penny earned his way into a more even timeshare with Carson. There will be plenty of carries to go around for both backs.

The one concern in this backfield is they lack an obvious passing down back. Mike Davis served in that role last season, catching 34 passes, while Carson and Penny managed just 20 and 9 respectively. Neither did much as a receiver in college either, so neither is a good fit for that role. The Seahawks have a few candidates, but JD McKissic is a converted wide receiver with just 86 career touches, CJ Prosise is a former 3rd round pick, but has played just 16 games in 3 seasons in the league, mostly due to injury, and 6th round rookie Travis Homer is too raw in pass protection to trust in passing situations as a rookie. None of those three backs are locks for the final roster. This will remain a run heavy team though, so the lack of a good passing down back isn’t as big of a deal.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

One key player the Seahawks lost this off-season was wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Baldwin was not let go for financial reasons though, as the 8-year veteran unfortunately could not continue his career due to a variety of injuries and retired ahead of his age 31 season. In an injury plagued 2018 season, Baldwin was not as productive (50/618/5 slash line in 13 games) as he was in his prime (78/1003/8 average slash line from 2014-2017), but he’ll still be missed and the Seahawks don’t have an obvious replacement.

Last year’s #3 receiver David Moore is a situational deep threat who caught less than 50% of his targets in 2018 and was a mere 7th round pick two years ago. The Seahawks were aggressive in adding receivers through this year’s draft, taking Mississippi’s DK Metcalf in the 2nd, West Virginia’s Gary Jennings in the 4th, and Hawaii’s John Ursua in the 7th round, but it’s unclear how much any of them will be able to contribute year 1.

Metcalf has the best chance to make a rookie year impact and he’s an athletic freak, but he’s not nearly as good moving laterally, which will likely limit his ability to run a full route tree. He’s a boom or bust prospect, so it wasn’t a huge surprise to see him slip to the end of the 2nd round. The Seahawks love having open competitions, so all three rookies will compete for jobs in 2 and 3 wide receiver sets with Moore and veteran career reserve Jaron Brown. That competition might not produce any particularly useful players in 2019 though.

Tyler Lockett is locked in as the clear #1 option and will likely see a higher target share, as well as more coverage, with Baldwin gone. Lockett was about as efficient as a pass catcher can be last season, catching 57 of 70 targets for 965 yards and 10 touchdowns. When you include the fact that none of those targets were intercepted, Wilson had a perfect 158.3 QB rating when throwing to Lockett last season, the only quarterback/receiver combo in the league to do so.

His overall receiving totals aren’t that impressive, but they came on just 459 routes run on one of the most conservative offenses in the league and he ranked 18th among qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run at 2.10. He also added another 69 yards on 13 end around carries, as the Seahawks like to make use of his speed in any way possible. The Seahawks locked him up on a 3-year, 30.75 million dollar extension last off-season that seemed like an overpay at the time because he hadn’t proven himself at that level yet, but it’s hard to argue it’s an overpay in hindsight, especially with the Seahawks losing Baldwin.

A 2015 3rd round pick, Lockett showed signs of being the kind of player he was last season in the past, but he dealt with injury issues and never put it together consistently before 2018, when he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked wide receiver. He’s a perfect fit for Russell Wilson and this offense, as the goal of this offense is to run the ball and then throw deep off play action. Wilson had the 3rd highest QB rating in the league last season off play action (126.0) and Lockett was a big part of that. In the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Lockett could easily have another strong season in 2019, though he probably won’t be as efficient without Doug Baldwin drawing coverage opposite him. He’s now by far the biggest receiving threat that defenses need to worry about.

The Seahawks don’t have any real receiving threats at tight end either. Third year tight end Nick Vannett led the way with a 29/269/3 slash line and played 528 snaps in 15 games, while veteran Ed Dickson had just a 12/143/3 slash line and played 364 snaps in 10 games. Vannett was a third round pick in 2016, but he’s never shown himself to be much of a receiving threat, while Dickson has averaged just 21 catches per season in 9 years in the league and is now going into his age 32 season.

Last year’s 4th round pick Will Dissly is expected to return from injury and he had a 8/156/2 slash line in 4 games last season before getting hurt, but 66 of those yards came on one play and he wasn’t a receiving threat in college, getting drafted primarily for his blocking ability at 6-4 265. He wouldn’t be the first tight end to become a better receiver in the NFL, but he had limited athleticism (4.87 40) even before suffering a brutal torn patellar tendon last season. He’s the wild card of the group, but I wouldn’t expect much from him as a pass catcher. This is a limited receiving corps with Baldwin retiring.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

Seattle’s offensive line is also a problem, as it has been for years. They’re better in run blocking than they are in pass protection, so the switch to a run heavier offense helped this unit, but they still allowed 51 sacks, 8th in the NFL, and Russell Wilson was pressured on 39.7% of his drop backs, 6th among qualifying quarterbacks. They are still better than they’ve been in recent years though and they had a lot more consistency upfront, with 4 offensive linemen making at least 15 of 16 regular season starts. They also return 4 of 5 starters upfront in 2019.

Only one of those starters (left tackle Duane Brown) earned an above average grade from PFF in 2018 though. Brown was acquired by the Seahawks in the middle of the 2017 season, with the Seahawks sending a 2018 3rd round pick and a 2019 2nd round pick to the Texans for Brown and a 2018 5th round pick. The Seahawks also gave Brown a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar extension last off-season to keep him long-term, but he’s been worth it so far, immediately stabilizing the left tackle position and then finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked offensive tackle overall in 2018. His age (34 this season) is becoming a concern, but he’s finished in the top-17 at his position on PFF in 8 of the last 9 seasons and could easily have another couple solid seasons left in the tank.

He’ll likely start next to the lone newcomer on this offensive line, free agent addition Mike Iupati, who is expected to replace free agent departure JR Sweezy at left guard. Sweezy was PFF’s 82nd ranked guard out of 88 qualifying last season, so it wouldn’t be hard for Iupati to be an upgrade, but he’ll need to stay healthy, which has been an issue for him in recent years. He hasn’t played all 16 games since 2012 and has missed 30 games with injury in 6 seasons since, including 6 games missed last season with back and knee problems. Now going into his age 32 with a long injury history, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he’s a good fit for this offense if he’s healthy because his strength has always been blocking. In his prime, he was one of the best run blockers in the league, finishing as PFF’s 9th ranked run blocking guard as recently as 2015.

If Iupati gets hurt again, the Seahawks would likely turn to Ethan Pocic. Pocic was a 2nd round pick in 2017, but struggled mightily in 11 rookie year starts (83rd out of 92 qualifying guards on PFF) and was limited to 4 very underwhelming spot starts as an injury replacement in his 2nd season in the league in 2018. Only going into his age 24 season, Pocic theoretically has untapped potential, but the Seahawks seem to prefer him as a swing reserve. He has the ability to play both guard spots and center (and he played some tackle in college), but doesn’t play any of those positions particularly well.

Pocic could be an option at right guard, where veteran DJ Fluker is a mediocre starter, but Fluker seems like the heavy favorite for now. Despite finishing as PFF’s 72nd ranked guard out of 88 qualifying last season, the Seahawks re-signed him to a 2-year, 6 million contract this off-season as a free agent. He’s experienced, with 74 career starts in 6 seasons in the league, but he’s never been more than an average starter and that’s unlikely to change in 2018. Justin Britt is locked in at center, so Pocic isn’t an option there, but Britt hasn’t been quite as good since his breakout 2016, when he finished 12th among centers on PFF. The Seahawks gave him a 3-year, 27 million dollar extension after that season, but he’s finished below average in both seasons since, including 29th out of 39 qualifying centers in 2018.

Right tackle Germain Ifedi rounds out this offensive line. A first round pick in 2016, Ifedi has made 44 of 48 starts in 3 seasons in the league, but he has struggled and has only kept his starting job for lack of a better option, finishing in the bottom-10 at his position in all 3 seasons in the league. Not only has he struggled as a blocker, but he’s also committed 39 penalties in 3 seasons, including a ridiculous 19 penalties in 2017. The Seahawks declined his 5th year option for 2020, even though it was guaranteed for injury only, and while he’ll likely remain a starter in 2019, this could easily be his last season in Seattle.

The Seahawks also use 6 man offensive lines somewhat frequently, bringing swing tackle George Fant in as a blocking tight end. They almost always run out of this formation, running the ball on 202 of 215 plays with Fant at tight end, but he did catch one pass for nine yard on one of the 13 pass plays. Fant is a former blocking tight end that the Seahawks converted into an offensive lineman. He struggled in the first 10 starts of his career in 2016 (all at left tackle), finishing 83rd out of 86 qualifying offensive tackle on PFF, before missing all of 2017 with injury and moving into his new role as a 6th offensive lineman in 2018.

Fant did make a couple starts at right tackle down the stretch in 2018 due to injury and held his own, so perhaps he’ll push Ifedi for his starting job at right tackle in training camp. Blocking tight end is probably his best role though and he still gets plenty of action in that role in this offense. Like the rest of this offensive line, Fant can push guys around as a run blocker, but they should continue struggling mightily in pass protection.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Seahawks had solid offensive play in 2018, finishing 12th in first down rate at 37.45%, but this defense has fallen pretty significantly from their dominant units a few years ago, finishing last season 19th in first down rate allowed at 37.49%. Overall, they were 18th in first down rate differential at -0.04%. They were able to make the playoffs because of a league best +15 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis.

Russell Wilson isn’t suddenly going to start throwing a bunch of interceptions, but they were only +5 in interceptions last year, as opposed to +10 in fumbles. That’s in large part because of a 63.64% fumble recovery rate, 2nd in the NFL. They only lost 4 fumbles all season, despite running the ball on 534 snaps, but they fumbled 18 times total. They are unlikely to have that good of luck again and should commit more turnovers as a result. A lack of turnovers was a big part of why their defense played the 3rd fewest snaps in the league (behind Carolina and Detroit), which made their defense look better than it was.

The Seahawks also lost some key contributors on defense this off-season, most notably defensive end Frank Clark. Clark was one of the better edge defenders in the league in 2018, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked edge defender and totaling 14 sacks, 12 hits, and 38 hurries on 463 pass rush snaps (13.8% pressure rate). He’s not a one-year wonder either, but the Seahawks probably wouldn’t have been able to keep him and still extend Russell Wilson and a couple other starters on this defense, like defensive tackle Jarran Reed and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, so they franchise tagged him and traded him to the Chiefs for a good haul, including a 2019 first round pick (29th overall) and a 2020 2nd round pick.

They may have gotten a good return, but he will definitely be missed in the short-term. The Seahawks didn’t have another edge defender with more than 3 sacks last season. Second year defensive end Rasheem Green should have a bigger role in Clark’s absence, but he struggled mightily on 201 snaps as a rookie, finishing as one of PFF’s lowest ranked edge defenders. He had just 1 sack and 6 hurries all season on 120 pass rush snaps. The 2018 3rd round pick still has upside and could take a step forward in his 2nd season in the league, but his career is not off to a good start and he certainly wouldn’t be the first 3rd round pick who didn’t develop into a long-term starter.

The Seahawks also added a trio of edge defenders this off-season, in an attempt to replace Clark. They used the first round pick they got from the Chiefs on TCU defensive end LJ Collier and also added veterans Ezekiel Ansah and Cassius Marsh in free agency. Collier was not widely considered a first round prospect, but he wasn’t a huge reach either and could have a rookie year impact. Marsh, meanwhile, is a rotational player at best, who set a career high with 550 snaps last season, but finished 93rd out of 113 qualifying edge defenders on PFF.

Ansah has the best shot to replace Clark in the short-term. That would require him getting healthy and staying healthy though, which is far from a guarantee. Ansah was a productive pass rusher from 2014-2017, totaling 36 sacks, 67 hits, and 114 hurries on 1,561 pass rush snaps (13.9%), while earning an above average grade from PFF in all 4 seasons. The Lions franchise tagged him last off-season, but concerns about his long-term durability, after he missed 5 games from 2016-2017 and was limited in others, led the Lions to not extend him long-term, which proved to be wise.

Ansah played just 146 snaps in 2018 due to shoulder problems and is not expected to be back until training camp at the earliest after off-season surgery, which is why he didn’t sign anywhere until May and got just 6 million guaranteed on a deal worth up to 9 million, just a year after being given a 17.143 million dollar franchise tag. He has bounce back potential, but he’s also going into his age 30 season and could be starting to fall apart. He’s worth the risk for a team that desperately needs a difference maker off the edge, but there’s no guarantee the risk pays off. The Lions will try to replace Clark by committee and will likely have a weaker group of edge defenders as a result, unless a couple young players breakout and Ezekiel Ansah stays healthy and turns back the clock.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

With Frank Clark gone, defensive tackle Jarran Reed is now their top defensive lineman and, going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Seahawks will likely give him a big extension this off-season. Reed had a strong 2018 season, totaling 10.5 sacks, 13 hits, and 26 hurries, a very impressive 10.3% pressure rate from the interior, but he wasn’t as good against the run and the 2016 2nd round pick is a one-year wonder, earning middling overall grades from Pro Football Focus in his first two seasons in the league, while combining for just 3 sacks, 9 hits, and 22 hurries on 546 pass rush snaps (6.2% pressure rate). The Seahawks are banking on him continuing his strong play and not proving to be a one-year wonder, but the contract they ultimately give him may be a little bit much for a player who hasn’t proven it consistently yet.

At the other defensive tackle spot, Shamar Stephen and Quinton Jefferson split snaps last season, with Stephen playing primarily in base packages and Jefferson playing primarily in sub packages. Stephen is no longer with the team, but the he struggled for most of the season and the Seahawks have a few options to replace him. Free agent acquisition Al Woods is likely the favorite and he’s been a solid run stuffer for years, but he’s also going into his age 32 season. He’ll face competition from Nazair Jones, 2017 3rd round pick who has played just 416 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, and Poona Ford, a 2018 undrafted free agent who flashed on 231 snaps as a rookie.

Quinton Jefferson will likely remain as the primary interior pass rusher opposite Reed. Last year was the first significant action of the 2016 5th round pick’s career and he didn’t show much, managing just 3 sacks, 11 hits, and 17 hurries on 371 pass rush snaps (8.4% pressure rate) and struggling against the run. I don’t expect much more from him in 2019. Barring a breakout season from someone, the other defensive tackle spot inside next to Jarran Reed should continue being a weak point.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is also expected to be extended at some point this off-season now that the Seahawks have moved on from Clark. Wagner has been arguably the best off ball linebacker in the NFL in recent years, finishing in the top-6 at his position on Pro Football Focus in all 3 straight seasons, including back-to-back seasons as their highest ranked off ball linebacker, and he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season, so the Seahawks can’t afford to lose him.

To keep Wagner, the Seahawks will likely have to top the 5-year, 85 million dollar deal CJ Mosley received from the Jets in free agency this off-season. Wagner is a few years older, but he’s a much more dynamic player, as Mosley has his struggles in coverage. Outside of Russell Wilson, Wagner might be their most important player on the roster. He’s one of just a few players still remaining from their Super Bowl defenses and he’s easily the best.

Fellow linebacker KJ Wright is also still on the roster from those dominant defenses, though he had a lost 2018 season due to a knee injury that limited him to 223 snaps in 5 games. Wright was a top-30 off ball linebacker on PFF for 5 straight seasons prior to 2018, maxing out at #5 in 2015, so he has bounce back potential, but he’s also going into his age 30, so he could be slowing down. The Seahawks brought back him on a 2-year, 14 million dollar contract as a free agent this off-season, but they also might have drafted his long-term replacement in the 3rd round, when they took Utah’s Cody Barton.

For now, Barton will provide insurance behind Wright and compete for the other outside linebacker role, which plays less than half the snaps and comes off the field for a 5th defensive back in sub packages. Barkevious Mingo played the 2nd most snaps by a Seattle linebacker in Wright’s absence in 2018 and will compete for the 3rd linebacker job, but he struggled last season and has been a mediocre player throughout his career, so he’d be an underwhelming option, even in a pure base package role. Owed 4.2 million non-guaranteed plus incentives, Mingo will likely be let go if he can’t lock down a starting job, as his salary is too rich for a backup.

The Seahawks are hoping Mychal Kendricks can play this season and he’ll likely be the 3rd linebacker if he can, but he faces an uncertain legal future. Kendricks pled guilty to insider trading last summer and, while he’s already served his 8-game suspension from the NFL, he has yet to be sentenced and could get multiple years in prison, which would obviously make him unavailable for the 2019 season.

The Seahawks gave him a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal this off-season, but none of it is guaranteed, so they can move on without penalty if he can’t play. Kendricks is an experienced veteran with 77 career starts who is theoretically still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season and he’s more than qualified for a base package role (he’s always played best against the run), but none of that will matter if he’s in prison. With Wright returning and depth added through the draft, this should be an improved linebacking corps even if Kendricks can’t play.

Grade: A-

Secondary

No unit on this roster has seen more changes in recent years than the secondary. The last remaining member of the Legion of Boom, Earl Thomas, signed with the Ravens this off-season, with the Seahawks unwilling to meet his financial demands. Cornerback Richard Sherman was shown the door last off-season, coming off of a torn achilles and owed 11 million non-guaranteed, while Kam Chancellor was forced into retirement last off-season by a serious neck injury.

Thomas missed most of last season with a broken leg though and the Seahawks had solid safety play in his absence, so the loss that could affect this team more in 2019 is the loss of slot cornerback Justin Coleman, who signed a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Detroit Lions this off-season. Coleman isn’t nearly as big of name as the former Legion of Boom players, but he’s been one of the better slot cornerbacks in the league over the past 2 seasons, finishing 32nd on Pro Football Focus in overall coverage grade in 2017 and then 19th in that measure in 2018.

The Seahawks don’t have an obvious replacement on the roster, but they did use a 2nd round pick on Utah safety Marquise Blair, who can also cover the slot. Starters Bradley McDougald and Tedric Thompson are probably locked into their jobs, but the Seahawks could use 3 safety looks frequently to mask their lack of depth at cornerback, so Blair could still have a big rookie year role. Free agent acquisition Jamar Taylor is currently penciled in as the 3rd cornerback, but he’s struggled throughout his 6-year career, with the exception of a solid 2016 season, so he’s an underwhelming option and may not even be a roster lock, only guaranteed 25k at signing.

McDougald is their best safety, finishing a career best 32nd among safeties on PFF in 2018. A 6-year veteran with 61 career starts, McDougald has played better every season in the league and is still very much in the prime of his career in his age 29 season. He should continue giving them above average safety play and is a steal on the 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal the Seahawks gave him last off-season. Thompson, meanwhile, is a 2017 4th round pick that got his first starting action in Thomas’ absence last season. He wasn’t great, but he played well enough for the Seahawks to continue starting him and he could keep developing, only in his 3rd year in the league. He might have to compete with Blair for the starting job, but all three safeties should see significant action.

Shaq Griffin and Tre Flowers are locked in as the starting outside cornerbacks, after starting 16 games and 15 games respectively in 2018. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Griffin showed a lot of promise as a rookie, but took a step back in his 2nd season in the league, finishing below average on PFF. Flowers, meanwhile, went in the 5th round in 2018. The 6-3 203 converted safety has the size the Seahawks love in a cornerback and he did a great job against the run, but was also inconsistent in coverage. Both players could take a step forward in coverage in 2019, but that’s not a guarantee. This is far from the Seahawks’ once dominant secondary and this defense as a whole has gotten much worse in recent years as well.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Seahawks made the post-season in 2018, but they needed a league best +15 turnover margin to do so and turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. If the Seahawks hadn’t had such great luck recovering their own fumbles, they could have easily been about an 8-8 team last season. Add in some key defensive losses and the loss of wide receiver Doug Baldwin and this is a team that isn’t even as talented as last year’s squad. Pete Carroll is one of the better head coaches in the league and his team could overachieve their talent level once again, but even if they do that it might not be enough for them to qualify for the post-season again. 

Final Update: The Seahawks added Jadeveon Clowney via trade as a much needed replacement for Frank Clark on defense, but they will also be without Jarran Reed for the first 6 games of the season due to suspension. Overall, they are stronger than they were a month ago, but they’re going to have a tough time making the post-season again in the loaded NFC if they can’t match last season’s +15 turnover margin, which is unlikely.

Prediction: 7-9, 2nd in NFC West