2019 Week 5 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (4-0) at Washington Redskins (0-4)

Ordinarily, the Redskins would be in a great spot to bet on this week. While the Patriots have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, the Redskins have the easiest game of their season on deck, a trip to Miami for a game against the Dolphins in which they are currently favored by 6 points. While favorites are 57-78 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football, home underdogs are 42-20 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites. Based on historical trends, the Redskins are much more likely to be fully focused for this game.

However, the Redskins also have a likely lame duck head coach in Jay Gruden and an uncertain situation at quarterback, with long-time backup Colt McCoy getting the nod this week over a banged up Case Keenum and first round rookie Dwayne Haskins, who was disastrous in relief of Keenum in his NFL debut last week. They might not play their best game given those circumstances and even if they do it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Patriots still win by 20, even if the Patriots don’t play their best game. The talent gap between these two teams is just that big, especially with the Redskins continuing to be without top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff due to injury. 

Also, the Patriots play the Giants next week, so it’s not like they have a big look ahead game, even if it’s on Thursday. Double digit favorites are 45-31 ATS before being double digit favorites again since 2002, and, though they are just 2-4 ATS before Thursday Night Football, that’s still worth noting. The Redskins seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes, but it would be hard to bet on them this week, even as 16-point home underdogs.

New England Patriots 27 Washington Redskins 13

Pick against the spread: Washington +16

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)

The Bengals were favored by 4 points on the early line last week and, despite getting blown out on Monday Night Football by the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, they still briefly opened as 3.5-point favorites this week, before the line quickly dropped to 3. Even at 3, I was still considering betting on the Cardinals, as that line suggests these two teams are about even, which I didn’t quite agree with. Neither of these teams has a win, but the Cardinals have a better first down rate differential (-7.18% vs. -10.15%) and seem to be in a better spot, as the Bengals may not be fully focused against a winless non-conference opponent, 6 days after a blowout loss, and before a divisional rivalry game against the Ravens. However, then I saw the injury reports on Friday.

The Bengals have had terrible injury luck thus far this season and, while they’ll still be without several players, including #1 wide receiver AJ Green and left tackle Cordy Glenn, they do get back a pair of key contributors on the defensive line, Ryan Glasgow and Carl Lawson, while the Cardinals could be without starting wide receivers Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd, starting left guard Justin Pugh, starting cornerback Tramaine Brock, starter edge defender Terrell Suggs, and rotational defensive lineman Zach Allen. Only Allen and Kirk have been ruled out, but none of the others got in a full practice on Friday, so there’s too much certainty to bet the Cardinals right now. Depending on injury reports Sunday morning, I may decide to place a small bet on the Cardinals. They’re the pick for pick ‘em purposes regardless, as even if the Cardinals are without everyone I still have this line calculated at Cincinnati -3.

Sunday Update: Pugh, Brock, and Suggs are all playing for the Cardinals. I’m going to put a small bet on the Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Cincinnati Bengals 19 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)

These two teams are in very similar quarterback situations. Both have lost their starting quarterback indefinitely and have turned to a non-highly drafted backup that has thus far greatly exceeded expectations. The Jaguars are starting sixth round rookie Gardner Minshew, who has completed 69.4% of his passes for an average of 7.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception since taking over for Nick Foles in the first half of the Jaguars’ first game of the season, while the Panthers have turned to 2018 undrafted free agent Kyle Allen, who has won all 3 career starts while completing 69.2% of his passes for an average of 8.34 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Both quarterbacks are still pretty unproven and might not continue their high level of play, but it’s hard to say one quarterback is more likely to do so than another, so the quarterback position is essentially a wash between these two teams.

Where the Panthers have the edge is the rest of the team, as they rank 10th in first down rate differential at +2.66%, while the Jaguars rank 23rd at -1.95%. Despite that, this line suggests these two teams are about even with the Panthers only being favored by a field goal at home, so we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers. The Panthers nearly won their first 2 games despite Cam Newton playing at far less than 100% and could easily be a 4-0 team right now if they had gotten competent quarterback play all year. 

I wish the Panthers had a more favorable injury report though, because they’ll be without a pair of starters on the offensive line (left tackle Greg Little and right guard Trai Turner), starting cornerback Donte Jackson, and possibly defensive lineman Gerald McCoy, who didn’t practice on Friday. Despite those injuries, I still have this line calculated at Carolina -6, so the Panthers are still worth a bet. If McCoy ends up playing and this line doesn’t change, I may increase this to a high confidence pick.

Sunday Update: McCoy is expected to play, while the Jaguars will be without both Jalen Ramsey and his replacement DJ Hayden. Despite that, this line is still at 3, so I am increasing this to a high confidence pick.

Carolina Panthers 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)

The Ravens got off to a 2-0 start against still winless teams like the Dolphins and Cardinals, but have fallen back to earth against tougher competition, losing in Kansas City in a game in which they trailed by double digits for most of the game and then losing at home to Cleveland by 15 last week. Their offense is better this year than last year, with Lamar Jackson making a second year leap, but their defense lost five 2018 starters in the off-season and then another two due to injury early in the season. 

A year after finishing 2nd in points per game allowed with 17.9, the Ravens have now allowed a total of 73 points in the past 2 weeks. Last year, they allowed 32 defensive touchdowns. So far, they are on pace they allow 44 defensive backs. This week they get back defensive lineman Brandon Williams, who missed the Cleveland game, which should help, but this is nowhere near the defense it once was.

The general public doesn’t seem to realize the Ravens don’t have a good defense anymore, as the Ravens still seem to be overvalued, favored by 3.5 points on the road in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season with an elbow injury, but they have a solid roster around the quarterback and backup Mason Rudolph has shown some flashes. Even including their week 1 blowout loss in New England, the Steelers have just an average margin of just -3 points per game, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see them play the Ravens close or even pull the upset in Pittsburgh. 

Their best game of the season did come against a banged up Bengals team, last week on Monday Night Football, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they carried that momentum into this week, as teams are 85-56 ATS since 1989 after a Monday Night Football win of 17+ points. I have this line calculated at even and, with a strong situational trend on their side, the Steelers could easily win this game outright. With about 1 in 4 games decided by a field goal or less, we’re getting a good cushion in case the Steelers can’t pull the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Houston Texans (2-2)

The Falcons are just 1-3, but they should be better than that going forward. They have tied for the second worst turnover margin in the NFL at -5, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Matt Ryan, who has a career 2.18% interception rate on 6,377 attempts, is unlikely to continue throwing interceptions at a 3.41% rate going forward and the Falcons should recover more than 22.22% of available fumbles going forward as well. Their defense is a serious concern, ranking 29th in first down rate allowed at 40.57%, but their offense has moved the ball effectively, ranking 5th in first down rate at 40.47%, even with left tackle Jake Matthews getting off to a slow start to the season. 

The Texans are a solid team, but I have these teams about even in my roster rankings, suggesting the Texans should only be favored by 3. This line is Houston -4, which might not seem like a big difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Even if the Falcons can’t pull off the upset, we’re getting a good cushion at +4.

The Falcons are also in a much better spot. While the Texans have to worry about going to Kansas City next week, the Falcons only have a trip to Arizona on deck. Underdogs are 101-57 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. At 1-3, the Falcons should be fully focused to try to save their season, while the Texans could be looking ahead to a much bigger conference game. The Falcons could easily pull the upset and have a great chance to cover.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Houston Texans 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

It’s not unusual for favored teams to struggle the week before Thursday Night Football, as favorites cover the spread only at about a 43.6% rate all-time in that situation. The Seahawks took care of business last week in Arizona, winning by 17 as 5-point favorites, by far their biggest win of the season after their first two came by a combined 3 points. However, the Rams fell flat, losing at home to the Buccaneers by 15 as 9-point favorites. 

It’s not entirely surprising the Rams lost that game though, even aside from it being before a short week. The Buccaneers have shown signs of being a much improved football team under Bruce Arians and the new coaching staff, while the Rams had not been terribly impressive during their 3-0 start, winning week 1 by 3 against a banged up Cam Newton in a game in which the Rams recovered all 4 fumbles, winning by week 2 against a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury in the first quarter, and then winning by a touchdown in Cleveland in a game the Browns had a chance to tie at the end. 

What is surprising is how the Rams lost. Their offense was the concerning unit through the first 3 weeks of the season for the Rams, slowed by an offensive line that did not look nearly the same without the two starters they lost this off-season, while their defense actually ranked 5th in first down rate allowed through 3 games at 31.52%, led by Aaron Donald and a now healthy cornerback duo of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, ranked 4th in first down rate allowed through 3 weeks at 30.73%, with an upstart young defense coordinated by Todd Bowles and led by breakout star Vita Bea, but got inconsistent play from quarterback Jameis Winston and the offense. Somehow, despite both teams playing strong defense through the first 3 weeks of the season and having shaky offenses, the Rams and Buccaneers combined for 95 points in a 55-40 Rams loss. 

It’s hard to know what to make of that game, especially since the Rams were likely not playing their best game before the short week. It’s also tough to predict how teams will respond on a short week. On top of that, I have this calculated line at Seattle -1, which means we’re not getting any real line value either way with this line being at Seattle -1.5. For those three reasons, this is going to be one of my lowest confidence picks of the week, but I’d take the Rams if I had to, for the half point of “line value.” Both teams have been shaky in their 3-1 starts, but the Rams still have the more complete roster.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: None