2020 Week 5 NFL Picks

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-3)

The Cowboys are a tough team to figure out. On one hand, they could easily be 0-4 if the Falcons had recovered an onside kick and they’ve been destroyed by injuries, with a list of long-term unavailable players that they were counting on for big contributions that includes the dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, every down linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, and expected top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, as well as his potential replacement Anthony Brown.

On the other hand, I liked them coming into the season because they finished last season 4th in first down rate differential and 6th in point differential and their bad record in close games was likely to even out in the long-term. This year, even though they could be 0-4, they’ve primarily been hurt by the turnover margin, which is something else that tends to even out in the long-term. The Cowboys have a league worst -7 turnover margin, in large part due to a 22.22% fumble recovery rate (1 of their own 7 fumbles recovered), but in terms of first down rate differential they actually rank 11th at +2.57%. Had they just recovered one of their first half fumbles against the Falcons, they likely wouldn’t have needed to recover an onside kick to win and their three losses were all relatively close games where the turnover margin played a big role. 

That’s a good sign for the Cowboys’ chances going forward, especially since their schedule is starting to get much easier after a tough start to the season. This home game against the Giants is probably their easiest game to date, only rivaled by their game against the Falcons in Atlanta in which the Cowboys won the first down rate battle by 10.80%. The Cowboys aren’t as talented as they were last year and the impact of their injuries can’t be understated, but they won seven games by double digits last season and it wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being another multi-score win against an easy opponent.

Unfortunately, we aren’t really getting line value with the Cowboys as 8.5-point home favorites. This line has moved slightly from 11.5 on the early line last week, but I don’t think it’s moved enough to compensate for Tyron Smith going down. My calculated line is Dallas -6.5, as the Cowboys won’t have a normal homefield advantage and the Giants have the kind of defense that can keep this close, especially with the Cowboys so banged up on the offensive line.

The Giants’ offense might be the worst in the league without running back Saquon Barkley and they haven’t scored a touchdown in their last two games without him, but the Cowboys have a much easier defense to move the ball against than the 49ers or Rams, so the Giants could easily keep it close or get a backdoor cover. I wouldn’t bet either side, but I’m taking the Giants for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +8.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

The Bengals picked up their first win of the season last week and I think they’re an underrated team going forward. They were better than their 2-14 record last season, ranking 24th in first down rate differential, and I expected them to be noticeably better than that this season, with the Bengals adding quarterback Joe Burrow atop the draft and getting their left tackle Jonah Williams and top wide receiver AJ Green back from injuries than cost them all of 2019. So far, the Bengals rank 18th at -0.25%. They have just one win, but they’ve been competitive in all four games and they should be better going forward, with stud defensive tackle Geno Atkins set to make his season debut after missing 4 games due to injury.

Unfortunately, that probably won’t translate to the win column right away, as Atkins’ first game back is probably the toughest game of the Bengals’ season, in Baltimore against the Ravens. In addition to the Ravens being a really tough opponent, this is also a really tough spot for the Bengals. While the Ravens have an easy game in Philadelphia on deck, the Bengals have another tough game in Indianapolis next week. Favorites of 6+ are 124-75 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 74-107 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again.

Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 39-11 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again when their opponent will be underdogs of 6+ again the following week. Good teams tend to take care of business against bad teams without upcoming distractions on their schedule, while bad teams tend to struggle to keep it close against good teams with another tough game on deck. All of those conditions should be true this week, which hurts the Bengals’ chances of keeping this competitive. I’m still taking the Bengals for pick ‘em purposes as 13-point underdogs because they typically keep their games close and my calculated line is just 8.5, so we’re getting significantly line value with the visitor, but I wouldn’t recommend putting money on this one.

Baltimore Ravens 28 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +13

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)

The Eagles got their first win of the season last week in San Francisco, but they were facing a very banged up 49ers team and got lucky that they won the turnover battle by 2 on a pair of terrible interceptions by 49ers backup quarterback Nick Mullens that swung what ended up being just a 5-point Eagles win. Turnover margins are highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis anyway (the Eagles were -7 in the first 3 weeks of the season) and the Eagles lost the first down rate battle in that game by 6.10%, giving them a 29th ranked -5.19% first down rate differential on the season, despite the fact that they haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule.

This game in Pittsburgh is arguably the toughest game of the Eagles’ season so far. The Steelers are 3-0 and, though they haven’t been quite as good as their record, with their wins all being close and a 15th ranked first down rate differential on the season (+0.87%), their defense has still been one of the best in the league, ranking 5th with a 34.43% first down rate allowed, while their 26th ranked offense (35.29%) should be better going forward, especially with top offensive lineman David DeCastro healthy after missing the first two games of the season. 

Despite that, the Eagles are only touchdown underdogs in this game. I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -10, as the Eagles are one of the worst teams in the league and are 8.5 points behind the Steelers in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good line value with the Steelers. The Eagles are also in a tough spot as they have an even tougher game on deck at home against the Ravens. Big upcoming home games like that tend to serve as a distraction, as teams are 37-60 ATS since 2016 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. It’s even tougher for teams when it is back-to-back tough games, as teams are 51-73 ATS since 2016 as underdogs of 6 or more before being underdogs of 6 or more again the following week. I don’t love the Steelers, but they’re worth a bet at -7 and I’d consider a larger bet at 6.5. It’s going to be tough for the Eagles to keep this one close.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -7

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)

Russell Wilson has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league throughout his career, but he’s never started a season this well, completing 75.2% of his passes for an average of 9.38 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, with 95 rushing yards in 4 games. The Seahawks overall rank 2nd in the league with a 44.80% first down rate, only behind the Green Bay Packers. This is as talented of an offensive supporting cast as Wilson has ever had, but there’s no denying how valuable Wilson has been for this team thus far. Wilson has somewhat famously never gotten an MVP vote, but it’s safe to say he’ll be in the mix this year if he continues playing this well.

The concern for the Seahawks is that, as well as Wilson is playing, they still aren’t blowing out most of their competition. They won by 13 points week 1 against the Falcons, but the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the league and their other three wins have come by one score, including games against the Cowboys and Dolphins. This isn’t anything new, as the Seahawks won 10 of their 11 wins by one score last season.

The Seahawks’ defense, which ranks 19th in first down rate allowed at 40.68%, is a definite concern, as the Seahawks could see some of their close wins turn to losses if Wilson falls back to earth the rest of the way. Those defensive concerns are even bigger this week with the Seahawks missing safety Jamal Adams due to injury, as Adams is arguably their best defensive player and the top safety in the league.

The Seahawks face a 1-3 Vikings team at home in Seattle this week, but they won’t have their normal homefield advantage and the Vikings are better than their record suggests, as they’ve had some things go against them that are very inconsistent week-to-week, like their -4 turnover margin (5th worst in the NFL), their 22.22% fumble recovery rate (2 of 9, including 1 for 7 on fumbles forced), and the 15 of 15 field goals that opponents have hit against them.

In fact, the Vikings actually rank just slightly behind the Seahawks in first down rate differential (+4.12% vs. +3.84%), despite the fact that they’ve faced a much tougher schedule. DVOA doesn’t have them quite as close, but the Vikings rank 13th, 7 spots behind the Seahawks, which still suggests we’re getting significant line value with the visitor. They should be able to keep this game close like most teams do with the Seahawks and they should also have a better chance to come in and get the straight up win than most expect, especially if Wilson has an off game.

My only concern with this game is the Seahawks are going into their bye, which is usually a good spot for a big home favorite. Since 2002, home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye. However, the Seahawks are barely 7-point favorites and these two teams are more evenly matched than this line suggests, so I’m not sure this trend applies. My calculated line is just Seattle -4.5, giving the Seahawks 1.5 points for homefield advantage. I don’t like the Vikings as much as my typical Pick of the Weeks, but I don’t see a better option this week. I would be surprised if Seattle was able to win this game by multiple scores, barring some fluky outlier plays.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 27

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

I’ve been on the Buccaneers in a big way for the past three weeks, because I’ve felt their defense was being very underrated, and they’ve covered in all three instances, but unfortunately it seems the line has caught up, as the Buccaneers have gone from being 3-point favorites in this game in Chicago on the early line last week to 5.5-point favorites this week. That takes away all line value, as that is my exact calculated line. I’m still taking the Buccaneers, but it’s purely because it’s a short week and the better team tends to be at even more of an advantage on a short week. 

Non-divisional favorites of a field goal or more typically cover at about a 61.6% rate on Thursday nights, and, though that drops to 55.6% for road favorites, I wonder how much that will matter without normal crowds. We haven’t seen a big road favorite on Thursday yet, so there are no data points to look at, but it makes sense that the Buccaneers would have a better chance than the typical Thursday road favorites of covering. That’s not enough to bet on the Buccaneers and this would likely be a no confidence pick if this was a normal week, but on a short week, I think it’s more likely we get a strong performance from the Buccaneers than the Bears, so I’d recommend them for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: This line has surprisingly dropped to 3.5 in most places, due to heavy sharp action. I don’t know why the sharps are on the Bears and 4 and 5 aren’t key numbers, but I may consider betting Tampa Bay, especially if this line goes all the way down to 3. Stay tuned.

Update #2: While we’re waiting for this line to hopefully drop to 3, I want to lock in Minnesota +7 for this weekend. I’ll still have a full writeup this weekend as normal, but I was planning on being on the Vikings heavily if Jamal Adams doesn’t play for the Seahawks and he was ruled out early. I don’t want to risk that line dropping from a touchdown, so I’m locking it in now.

Final Update: I’ve been going back and forth on this one, but I think a bet is justified. With the Buccaneers having Leonard Fournette surprisingly active and Mike Evans confirmed active despite missing practice all week on a short week, I have this line calculated at Tampa Bay -6 and they are in a good spot as well. As much as I’d much rather this line be 3, the Buccaneers should win by at least 6-7 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -3.5

Confidence: Medium

2020 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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Week 4

Total Against the Spread: 9-5-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 1-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 3-1-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 5-1-1

Low Confidence Picks: 3-3

No Confidence Picks: 1-1

Upset Picks: 0-0

2020

Total Against the Spread: 32-29-2

Pick of the Week: 2-2

High Confidence Picks: 4-2

Medium Confidence Picks: 8-8-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 14-12-1

Low Confidence Picks: 15-9

No Confidence Picks: 3-8-1

Upset Picks: 2-2

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 1011-864-57 (53.80%)

Pick of the Week: 75-45-5 (62.00%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 483-354-24 (57.49%)

Upset Picks: 156-176-1 (47.00%)