2021 NFL Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (6-6)

The Ravens are 8-4, but they are not nearly as good as their record. They have played a lot of close games and are overall 6-2 in one score games, which is not something they can rely on long-term. When these two teams met two weeks ago in Baltimore, I picked the Browns as 3.5-point underdogs, as a result of the Ravens’ lack of big wins, and the Browns had numerous chances to cover that number in a game that was tight throughout and an eventual 6-point loss, giving the Ravens’ just their third biggest margin of victory of the season.

This week, these two teams meet in Cleveland and, in addition to the obvious location difference, the Browns could have a significant injury edge as well, as the Ravens have lost right tackle Patrick Mekari and top cornerback Marlon Humphrey in the past week, while the Browns could get a much better performance out of Baker Mayfield after a bye week, which would be huge because Mayfield’s poor play was the biggest factor in the Browns not winning when these two teams met the last time. 

The Browns are favored this time, but only by 2.5 points and my calculated line has the Browns favored by 3.5 points, as, despite all of their injury absences, the Browns still rank 13th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, just behind the Ravens, who rank 11th, but are going in the wrong direction injury wise, while the Browns seem to be heading in the right direction. Just 8% of games are decided by two points or fewer, while about 1 in 6 are decided by exactly a field goal, so we’re getting good line value with the Browns as long as this line is under a field goal. There isn’t enough here to bet the Browns confidently, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes in a game in which they basically just have to win to cover this spread.

Cleveland Browns 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -2.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-10-1) at Denver Broncos (6-6)

I have picked the Lions in recent weeks, betting them frequently, as winless teams tend to be a good bet late in the season and, in fact, the Lions have now covered in five of their last six games, after last week’s upset win over the Vikings. However, now the Lions are not winless anymore and they could be in a bad spot after an emotional upset victory, as teams cover at just a 41.0% rate after a win as home underdogs of 5 points or more. The Lions could easily still be overlooked though, especially by a Broncos team that is coming off a tough loss to the Chiefs and now gets an easy opponent before another tough conference matchup against the Bengals. 

Teams cover the spread at just a 42.7% rate as favorites of a touchdown or more before facing an opponent with a winning percentage over 50% higher than their current opponent, which applies in this situation and effectively cancels out the Lions’ bad trend. On top of that, part of the reason why teams tend to struggle after a big home upset wins is because they become overrated off of overreaction to a single week of play, but the Lions went from being 8.5-point underdogs on the early line last week to now being 10-point underdogs this week, despite the Broncos looking underwhelming in Kansas City. 

That’s partially because the Lions will be without a pair of key offensive playmakers in running back Jamaal Williams and tight end TJ Hockenson, after already losing running back DeAndre Swift the week before, but my calculated line still has the Broncos favored by just a touchdown at most, despite the Lions’ injury absences. Even though the Lions have a terrible record, they haven’t been blown out much, as just three of their 12 games have ended in a defeat by more than 10 points, which is important, considering this line is at 10. 

The Broncos are unlikely to be the team that pushes that number to four. The Broncos started 3-0 against a weak schedule, winning all three games by double digits, but they have lost key players like Von Miller, Josey Jewell, AJ Johnson, and Graham Glasgow since then and have slipped to 6-6, while ranking just 21st, 4th, 29th, and 19th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency. The Lions, despite their league worst record, rank 25th, 28th, 9th, and 27th respectively, about four points behind the Broncos. This isn’t worth a big play, but I would expect this to be another relatively close game for the Lions, who are not as bad as their record.

Update: The COVID absences have continued for the Lions, with safety Tracy Walker and edge defender Julian Okwara being the most notable of the players who were also ruled out after Jamaal Williams. I am regretting locking this in at 10, as the line has since shifted to 11, and even at 11 I don’t know if I would be confident in the Lions, given how short-handed they will be this week.

Denver Broncos 23 Detroit Lions 16

Pick against the spread: Detroit +10

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

I have thought the 49ers are underrated for weeks, as their 6-6 record is not reflective of how they have performed in more predictive metrics, ranking 7th, 8th, 22nd, and 7th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency. However, it seems like the general public has become aware that the 49ers are better than their record and now is ignoring some key injury absences, including some new ones just in the past week.

The 49ers will get top linebacker Fred Warner back from injury this week, but they will now be without top cornerback Emmanuel Mosley, after already losing their previous top cornerback Jason Verrett for the season, as well as feature back Elijah Mitchell, after already losing their previous feature back Raheem Mostert for the season. On top of that, top wide receiver Deebo Samuel could miss his second straight game, right tackle Mike McGlinchey remains out, and would-be key contributors on defense like Javon Kinlaw, Dre Greenlaw, and Maurice Hurst remain out as well. 

Despite that, the 49ers are 1.5-point favorites in Cincinnati. For comparison, the Chargers were 3-point underdogs last week. The Chargers did win that game convincingly, but the Bengals were also without a pair of starting offensive linemen, right tackle Riley Reiff and center Trey Hopkins, who will both be back this week. I can’t bet the Bengals confidently, because the 49ers are still better than their 6-6 record, while the Bengals are likely worse than their 7-5 record, as they have faced an easy schedule, but the Bengals are in the better spot and should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes, as teams in their third straight home game like the Bengals cover the spread at a 55.2% rate. If Samuel plays, I would likely drop all confidence, but this is a low confidence pick of the Bengals for now.

Update: It sounds like Deebo Samuel is playing, so this is going to be a no confidence pick.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 23

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +1.5

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (4-8) at Houston Texans (2-10)

The Texans are 2-10 and don’t have the worst record in the league, but they are undoubtedly the worst team in the league. Their first win came back in week one when their offensive line was healthier and it came against a Jaguars team that is also terrible, while their second win was a game against the Titans in which the Texans won the turnover margin by 5, an unpredictive metric, while losing the yards per play and first down rate battle convincingly, by margins of 2.2 and 9.47% respectively, which are much more predictive metrics.

Meanwhile, the Texans’ ten losses have come by an average of 18.3 points per game and that number could be even higher if the Patriots weren’t missing most of their offensive line in their 3-point win, a game in which the Patriots still won the first down rate battle by 8.67%, and if the Texans hadn’t scored 22 meaningless garbage points against the Rams in a game in which they were down 38-0 going into the 4th quarter. 

Overall, the Texans rank 32nd, 26th, and 21st in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively and, in mixed efficiency, they don’t just rank dead last in the NFL, but they are more than 6.5 points behind the next worst team. There was some hope they would play better when they got veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor back from injury, to replace raw rookie Davis Mills, but Taylor was barely an upgrade and was pulled in the middle of last week’s game so the team could get a better look at Davis Mills as a potential long-term starter, a chance he will get as the starter for the rest of the season.

It’s hard to see a circumstance where I would bet on the Texans and it would take a lot for me to even pick them against the spread, but this game is a situation where they make some sense as a pick, as they are in an incredible spot. The Texans lost 31-3 at home to the Colts last week, but teams tend to bounce back after a big loss as home underdogs like that, especially if teams are home underdogs again, as teams cover at a 59.0% rate all-time as home underdogs the week following a loss as home underdogs by 14 points or more. This is also the Texans’ third straight home game, a situation in which teams cover at a 55.2% rate.

Meanwhile, on the other side, the Seahawks have a much tougher game against the Rams on deck and could overlook the Texans or take their foot off the gas in the second half with a big lead and allow the Texans to backdoor cover this 8.5-point spread. Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 42.7% rate all-time before facing an opponent with a winning percentage that is more than 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, which applies here. My calculated line actually has the Seahawks favored by 11 points, with the Texans being the worst team in the league and the Seahawks being much better than their record with Russell Wilson rounding back into form, and, because of that, I can’t take the Texans with any confidence, but they could make this more of a game than people are expecting.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Houston Texans 23

Pick against the spread: Houston +8.5

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Jets (3-9)

The Saints got off to a 5-2 start, but injuries and other absences have completely derailed their season. Already without top wide receiver Michael Thomas from the start of the year, the Saints have been without starting quarterback Jameis Winston, top offensive lineman Ryan Ramcyzk, first round pick edge defender Payton Turner, and starting tight end Adam Trautman for an extended period of time. They will get feature back Alvin Kamara, talented left tackle Terron Armstead, and starting edge defender Marcus Davenport back this week, but they will also be without suspended wide receiver Deonte Harris, a talented offensive and special teams player, and likely edge defender Cameron Jordan, who is in the COVID protocols and would be an enormous absence for this defense.

Despite their injury situation and their current 5-game losing streak, sinking their record to 5-7, the Saints are still 5.5-point road favorites in New York against the Jets. The Jets are one of the worst teams in the league, but, in their current state, the Saints don’t deserve to be favored by this many points on the road against anyone outside of maybe the Texans. My calculated line has the Saints favored by a field goal at most, so we’re getting enough line value with the Jets at +5.5 for them to be worth betting, especially since they are also in a significantly better spot.

The Jets lost last week at home to the Eagles as home underdogs, a 15-point loss, and teams cover at a 59.0% rate all-time as home underdogs the week following a loss as home underdogs by 14 points or more. The Jets should be much more focused for their second straight home game after a big loss last week. On the other hand, the Saints play the Buccaneers next week and could overlook the Jets or take their foot off in the second half even if they can get a big lead. Road favorites of 4.5 points or more cover at just a 43.8% rate all-time before facing an opponent with a winning percentage over 50% higher than their current opponent. This is a smaller play for now, but if Cameron Jordan is officially ruled out, I would consider increasing this bet, especially if the line moves up to 6 at some point.

New Orleans Saints 19 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +5.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Washington Football Team (6-6)

The Cowboys have slowed down since their 6-1 start, falling to 8-4 after losing three of their last five games, but their big problem has really just been that they haven’t been healthy, most notably missing their top two edge defenders DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory and their top two wide receivers Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb, and all four of those players will play this week. Given that, the Cowboys are well positioned to continue their winning ways going forward.

In addition to those four players, the Cowboys also have other key players who missed time and have since returned, like right guard Zack Martin, right tackle La’El Collins, left tackle Tyron Smith, wide receiver Michael Gallup, and, of course, quarterback Dak Prescott. In fact, this game will be the first time all season that the Cowboys will have all nine of the aforementioned players available. As healthy as they’ve been all year, the Cowboys have one of the best rosters in the NFL and should be one of the top contenders going forward if they can avoid further injuries.

Washington, meanwhile, has won four straight games since a 2-6 start, but many of their wins have been close, as they have gone 5-2 in one score games and have a -51 point differential that ranks just 25th in the NFL, as opposed to a 6th rank +86 point differential for the Cowboys, despite all of their key players who have missed time. Washington has faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, but Dallas isn’t far behind them, having also faced a tough schedule.

My calculated line says the Cowboys should be favored by more than a touchdown in this game, so we’re getting a lot of value with them as just 4-point favorites, enough for them to be my Pick of the Week. In hindsight, I liked Minnesota on Thursday more than I like Dallas, but I didn’t want to make a Pick of the Week on Thursday before I got to review every game and, of the Sunday/Monday picks, Dallas is my favorite play.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Football Team 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

A week ago on the early line, the Vikings were favored by 4.5 points in this matchup, but this line has since fallen all the way down to 3, a significant shift, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly. I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week’s result. In this case, the Steelers beat the previously 8-3 Ravens last week, while the Vikings lost to the previously winless Lions, but I don’t think either result was that surprising or should have triggered this shift.

Both games came down to the final play and both the Ravens and Lions have played a lot of close games this year, despite their significantly different records, so the fact that the former finally lost one and the latter finally won one is not a surprise. As bad as the Vikings’ loss to the Lions was last week, the Steelers nearly lost to the Lions at home earlier this season, a game that ended in a tie, and, overall, the Steelers have been a much worse team than the Vikings this season, despite having a slightly better record.

Including last week’s close win over the Ravens, the Steelers have won their six games by a combined 26 points, with none by more than one score, while their five losses have come by a combined 68 points, with their only one-score loss coming in Los Angeles, in a game in which the Steelers lost despite winning the turnover battle and blocking a punt, which led to the Steelers cutting into what was a 14-point 4th quarter lead, despite losing the first down rate battle by 12.24% and the yards per play battle by 3.1 yards per play. 

The Steelers other four losses all came by multiple scores, while the Vikings have not lost by more than one score all season and possess a significant edge in point differential (+3 vs. -42). In terms of schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, the Steelers rank 26th, while the Vikings rank 18th. The Vikings are also a lot healthier this week than they were a week ago and the significant amount of missing personnel they had last week in Detroit is a big part of the reason why they lost. 

They will still be without their top two edge defenders Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen and their starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, while #2 wide receiver Adam Thielen will miss his first game of the season, but they will get back their top cornerback Patrick Peterson and their top two linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr and could also get back feature back Dalvin Cook and key reserve defensive back Camryn Bynum, all of whom missed last week’s game. This comes a couple weeks after the Vikings got their starting defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Michael Pierce back. 

The Vikings are still not as healthy as they were earlier in the season, but last week was their low point of the season from an injury standpoint and they should play a lot better now that they are healthier. They have a significant talent edge over the Steelers, who remain without top cornerback Joe Haden and are now down to their third string left guard. Overall, I have the Vikings 5.5 points better in my roster rankings right now, with Bynum and Cook factored in as legitimately questionable, so we are getting a ton of line value with the Vikings as only 3-point home favorites, a line that suggests the Vikings are only barely better than the Steelers.

This is also a very tough spot for the Steelers, who have to come on the road and face an unfamiliar non-divisional and non-conference opponent on a short week, as underdogs. All-time, non-divisional road underdogs cover at just a 34.5% rate on Thursday Night Football when both teams are on short rest. Making matters worse for the Steelers, they are coming off of an emotional win over the Ravens. 

Jim Harbaugh’s decision to go for two not only led to the Steelers’ victory, but also spared the Steelers from being in a near-impossible spot this week, as they would have had to play on a short week after an overtime game, a 16% all-time cover spot, but the Steelers’ defense was still on the field for 69 plays in a game that went down to the wire and, even if the game didn’t go to overtime, they figure to be the more tired of these two teams. 

On top of that, teams cover at just a 43.3% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of four points or more, as teams tend to find it tough to bring that same level of intensity two weeks in a row. I like the Vikings enough as a field goal favorites in this game that it would probably be my Pick of the Week if it was a weekend game, but I don’t like to make my Pick of the Week on Thursdays because these games can be weird sometimes and it’s possible I like a game this weekend more and, even if this isn’t my Pick of the Week, this is still a big play.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: High

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (8-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-4)

Going into the season, I had both of these teams among the best in the league and so far that has been the case. It was a bit of a bumpy start for the Patriots, but they have won six straight games and could easily have won a couple of their early season losses, with losses coming by one point, two points, and in overtime, meaning in three of their loses they were a combined -3 in point differential at the end of regulation. 

By contrast, just two of their wins have come by one score, a game in Houston in which the Patriots were missing most of their offensive line and a game in Los Angeles in which the Patriots were up by 10 before a garbage time touchdown cut the margin to 3. On their six game winning streak, the Patriots have not only won, but won convincingly, with an average margin of victory of 24.7 points per game, while covering the spread by at least a touchdown in all six games. That has led to them possessing the league’s best point differential overall at +146, meaning they are arguably even better than their 8-4 record suggests.

The Bills rank right behind them in second at +144 and they have done so in one fewer game, but they also haven’t faced nearly as tough of a schedule as the Patriots, as the Bills’ schedule has been arguably the easiest in the league thus far. All seven of their wins have come by at least 15 points and they possess an average margin of victory of 26.1 points per game, but they also have only faced just four teams with a .500 or better record and they are just 1-3 in those three games. 

The Bills’ offense is what carried them a year ago, when they went 13-3, but they have fallen more to the middle of the pack this season, ranking 12th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, as not everything has gone as perfectly as it did a year ago and defenses have caught on to how to best defend them. Instead, it has been the Bills’ defense, which ranks 1st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, which has carried them this season, but defense is a less predictive side of the ball and this defense has not really held up against tougher competition. Making matters worse, the Bills lost top cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season last week, which is a big blow to this defensive unit. 

The Bills’ offense has some bounce back potential, with largely the same personnel as their dominant unit a year ago, but overall the Patriots seem to be the better team heading into this matchup. I wish we were still getting a field goal with the Patriots like we were early in the week, but sharp action quickly dropped this line to Buffalo -2.5, which is not as intriguing of a line, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. 

Also hurting the Patriots chances of covering this spread is the mid-week news that safety Kyle Dugger will likely miss this game due to COVID protocols, which unfortunately did not trigger the spread to shift back to a field goal. My calculated line is even, so we’re still getting line value with the Patriots, but I like a small bet on the money line more than I like betting this spread, unless we get a field goal before gametime, or some surprising good news on Dugger.

Update: Dugger is not playing, but the Patriots will have linebacker Jamie Collins back from injured reserve and, despite that, this line has still moved up to a full field goal. The Patriots are worth a bet at that number, in addition to a money line play. They should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game straight up.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: Medium

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)

The Steelers are 5-5-1, but all five of their wins have come by one score, their five losses have come by an average of 13.6 points per game, and their tie came against the winless Lions. The Steelers’ only close loss came against the Chargers in a game in which the Steelers lost despite winning the turnover battle and blocking a punt, which led to the Steelers cutting into what was a 14-point 4th quarter lead. Overall, the Chargers won the first down rate by 12.24% and the yards per play battle by 3.1 yards per play, both substantial amounts. The Steelers other four losses all came in double digits.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are 8-3, but they aren’t blowing teams out and have needed a 6-1 record in one score games to be where they are in the standings. The Steelers are missing stud edge defender TJ Watt and, without him, are one of the worst teams in the league, so we are getting some line value with the Ravens as 4.5-point road favorites, even with all of the close games they played, but it’s definitely worth noting that the Ravens’ final scores this season would have covered this spread in just four of eleven games. I don’t see this being a blowout, especially since Lamar Jackson has not been as good in his career against teams he has faced before, including the Steelers, but I would still pick the Ravens if I had to.

Update: Watt surprisingly will be able to play in this game, though it’s unclear if he’ll be 100%. Still, that is a big boost for the Steelers and yet the line has not moved, at least not yet. I am going to flip this pick to the Steelers, but this is still a no confidence pick, as the Steelers could easily get blown out again, even if the Ravens aren’t the kind of team that blows teams out.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4.5

Confidence: None