2021 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)

The Buccaneers entered the season as one of the top Super Bowl favorites, bringing back all 22 starters from last season’s Super Bowl winning team, and they have gotten off to a 5-1 start thus far, but they’ve gone 3-0 in one score games, so they’ve gotten somewhat lucky to be where they are record wise. They also lost five regular season games last season before getting hot in the post-season and they are also dealing with something that they really didn’t last season, which is a significant amount of injuries, a list that has been growing by the week. In total, the Buccaneers will be without top cornerback Carlton Davis, fellow starting cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, top off ball linebacker Lavonte David, starting edge defender Jason Pierre-Paul, stud wide receiver Antonio Brown, and talented starting tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Despite that, the Buccaneers are still favored by 11.5 points in this matchup against the Bears. The Bears looked like one of the worst teams in the league to start the season, but they’ve been better in recent weeks, as their defense has gotten healthier, their offense is in marginally better hands with promising rookie Justin Fields under center rather than low upside veteran Andy Dalton, and their special teams has played great in recent weeks. The Buccaneers should still win this game relatively easily, but my calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by 10, suggesting we’re getting some value with the underdog at +11.5. This isn’t a bettable game, but the Bears are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +11.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

Both of these teams have impressive records at 4-2 and 5-1, but both teams have also played a lot of close games, with the Bengals playing 4 games decided by a field goal or less (2-2), including a pair of overtime games and the Ravens playing 4 games decided by one score or less (3-1), including another pair of overtime games. Both teams are 2-0 in games decided by multiple scores, but the Bengals’ wins came against the Steelers and Lions, while the Ravens, who have faced a tougher schedule overall, beat the Broncos and Chargers by multiple scores.

The Ravens also have a talent edge on paper, about 6 points better in my roster rankings, suggesting we’re getting some line value with the Ravens as just 6.5 point favorites at home. The Ravens are also in a pair of good spots as they are big home favorites before a bye and they are in their third straight home game. Home favorites of 6+ cover at a 63.0% rate all-time before a bye week, while home favorites cover at a 55.6% rate in their third straight home game. 

Combining the two trends, teams have covered in 13 of 14 instances over the past 30 seasons as favorites in their third straight home game before a bye week. The Ravens should be fully focused for this game and give their best effort as a result. This isn’t a big play, but as long as this line is under a touchdown, the Ravens should take care of business against a Bengals team that has faced an easy schedule thus far and that has mostly overachieved their talent level this season.

Update: This line has dropped down to 6, which is a bigger number than it used to be because of the new overtime rules. I am upping this to a higher confidence pick.

Baltimore Ravens 33 Cincinnati Bengals 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)

The Eagles are just 2-4, but they’ve faced a tough schedule. Their losses have all come to above average teams, the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, with two of those games being decided by one score or less, while their wins have come against the Panthers and Falcons on the road by a combined 29 points. Those two teams are much more comparable to the Raiders, the Eagles’ opponents this week, than any of the teams the Eagles have lost to. 

The Eagles’ defense has especially faced a tough schedule, as the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Buccaneers are all in the top-3 in schedule adjusted first down rate, and the Eagles held up all things considered, holding those three teams well below their collective season average and leading the league by allowing 1.24 yards per play less than expected. They’re probably not going to be the best defense in the league by this metric all season, but this is a much better defense than they’ve been given credit for if you take into account who they’ve played.

The Eagles’ offense has not been nearly as good, ranking 27th in schedule adjusted first down rate, but their offensive line is a lot healthier now than it’s been, getting left tackle Jordan Mailata back from a 2-game absence in week 5 and now getting right tackle Lane Johnson back from a 3-game absence this week, the first time the Eagles have had their two tackles together since week 2. The Eagles are still missing their starting guards Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo, but they’ve gotten good play from their replacements and should overall have a strong offensive line with Johnson returning this week. 

In their current state, I have them 2.5 points better than the Raiders, suggesting this line should be about even, with the Raiders getting about 2.5 points for homefield advantage. The Raiders have a better record at 4-2, but their victories haven’t been all that impressive, with none coming by more than 10 points and two coming in overtime, despite an underwhelming strength of victory that includes a mediocre Steelers team, a terrible Dolphins team, a banged up Broncos team, and a Ravens team that was travelling cross country for a night game in the Raiders home opener. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders’ two losses have each come by double digits, including a home loss to an underwhelming Bears team and the Chargers’ only multi-score win of the season. In hindsight I wish I had picked the Browns on Thursday Night Football as my Pick of the Week because I liked that matchup more than anything this weekend, but I didn’t know that at the time, so I am taking this as my Pick of the Week. The Eagles have a good chance to pull this straight up upset and even if they don’t, we get protection from a field goal loss.

Update: I am glad I locked this in because Darren Waller might not play and this line dropped to 2. I would still like the Eagles at a lot at +2, assuming Waller doesn’t play, but this is an afternoon game, so the line and the injury report need to be monitored before locking in a bet if you didn’t get this at +3.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Las Vegas Raiders 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (3-3)

The rule of thumb in these Thursday games is to take a home favorite in a non-divisional matchup, as historically it has proven tough for inferior teams to travel on a short week and face a superior team that is out of their division that they are unfamiliar with. Overall, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 65% rate on Thursday nights, as long as both teams are on normal rest. The Browns are only favored by a point here, suggesting that the visitors are the superior team, but I think this line is way off.

Both teams are 3-3, but the Browns have been much better overall. Their three losses came against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals, who are all among the top teams in the league, with a combined record of 13-5 and no losses to opponents who are worse than 4-2, and two of those teams were decided by one score and could have gone either way. The Browns’ strength of schedule isn’t that impressive, but they went into Minnesota and won by a touchdown against a Vikings team that is better than their 3-3 record, while their wins over the Texans and Bears came in blowout fashion, with the Browns winning the first down rate battle by 11.26% and 18.86% respectively in those games and the yards per play battle by 1.02 and 4.24 respectively. 

The Browns’ one blowout loss, their loss to the Cardinals, did come just last week, which is concerning because the Browns were dealing with significant injury issues in that game that will carry over to this game, but the Broncos are equally banged up. The Browns are expected to be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, their two top running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, their stud right tackle Jack Conklin, possibly starting wide receiver Odell Beckham, and their most impressive linebacker this season, rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, while the Broncos have lost wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, edge defender Bradley Chubb, and inside linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson since the start of the season.

The common narrative is that the Broncos got out to a 3-0 start by facing weak competition and have fallen back to earth against tougher competition, but the Broncos largely dominated their weak competition and looked like a legitimately good team, while their tougher competition in recent weeks has only consisted of the Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders. It’s not just that their schedule has gotten tougher; they have legitimately played much worse the past few weeks and injuries are the primary culprit. 

This line has shifted from favoring the Browns by 6 points last week on the early line last week to a single point this week, largely due to the Browns injuries and their blowout loss last week, but it seems to ignore the Broncos’ injuries and their recent struggles, all against teams inferior to the Cardinals. When strength of schedule is taken into account, the Browns rank 16th in first down rate, 3rd in yards per play allowed, and 3rd in special teams DVOA, which are the most predictive metrics for each unit, while the Broncos rank 22nd, 23rd, and 25th. 

My roster rankings have these two teams closer together and overall the value of the Browns’ injured players is more than the Broncos’ injured players, but the Browns still have about a four point talent edge and are still in relatively good hands under center because backup Case Keenum is one of the better in the league. Add in their extra homefield advantage on a short week and the Browns should be favored by a lot more than a point in this matchup. This might be a Pick of the Week if this was a Sunday or Monday game, but I hate having my top pick on Thursday before I’ve gotten to review everything during the weekend, so I’m keeping this as a high confidence pick.

Cleveland Browns 23 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

This is one of the toughest calls of the week. On one hand, the Chargers have the better offense and defense, ranking 4th in first down rate and 23rd in yards per play attempt allowed, while the Ravens rank 10th and 28th respectively, and are getting points. The Chargers are on the road, but they’ve done the aforementioned without the benefit of any real homefield advantage. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS at home this season, but they are also 2-0 ATS on the road, they don’t draw consistent crowds, and, dating back to their first season in Los Angeles, they are 13-19 ATS at home, as opposed to 20-12 ATS on the road.

On the other hand, the Ravens have the significant edge in special teams DVOA, which is more predictive than you’d think. The Ravens have consistently had among the best special teams in the league for years and currently rank 2nd in special teams DVOA, while the opposite is true of the Chargers, who rank 29th in special teams DVOA this season. That could especially matter in what figures to be a close game either way and the Ravens only need to win by a field goal to cover this 2.5-point spread. The Ravens also rank slightly higher than the Chargers in my roster rankings, in large part due to their special teams edge. I’m taking the Ravens because a field goal win by the home team is the single most likely outcome, but the Chargers could also easily pull the upset on the road, where they have traditionally exceeded expectations.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)

The Bills went into Kansas City last week and won a nationally televised game against two-time defending AFC Champion Chiefs. That came after the Bills outscored their previous three opponents by score of 118-21 and, with their 38-20 win over the Chiefs, the Bills have the league’s best point differential by a wide margin at +108 (next closest is +62). Between that point differential and their nationally televised win over the previous de facto Super Bowl favorite, the Bills have become the league’s new de facto Super Bowl favorite. That can be seen in this line, which now favors the Bills by 6 points in Tennessee over a decent at worst Titans team, a week after the Bills were just -3 in this game on the early line.

The Bills may be the best team in the league, but I do think they are a little overrated right now. Even if we completely discount their week one home loss to the underwhelming Steelers, the Bills faced a very easy schedule during their streak of blowout wins, while their win over the Chiefs was aided by a +4 turnover margin, which is something that is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of first down rate, which is more predictive, the game was a lot closer, with the Bills winning the first down rate battle by just 1.84%. 

Overall on the season, the Bills have benefitted from a +11 turnover margin, which is the best in the league by a wide margin (no one else is better than +7), but also something that is highly unlikely to continue going forward, given the unpredictability of turnover margins. No team in the NFL had a turnover margin better than +11 on the season last year, so the Bills could play turnover neutral football going forward and still wide up as the league’s best turnover margin team when all is said and done. 

The Titans haven’t been great this season, but they are getting healthier, most notably with both star wide receivers AJ Brown and Julio Jones expected to suit up this week, for the first time since both went down in week 3. My calculated line still has the Titans as field goal home underdogs, with the Bills 5.5 points higher in my roster rankings, so we’re getting line value with the Titans at +6. This isn’t a big play, but this should be a competitive game and the Titans will have the motivation edge to make a statement in this nationally televised game, with the Bills having already done so last week.

Buffalo Bills 30 Tennessee Titans 27

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-4)

The Texans nearly won last week against the Patriots, losing by a field goal in their first competitive game since losing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor and having to turn to raw rookie backup Davis Mills, who saw the Texans get outscored 81-16 in his first 10 quarters of action prior to last week’s close loss. Even last week’s near win came against a Patriots team that was missing most of its offensive line with injury and, despite that, still won the first down rate battle play battle by 8.67%, with much of the Texans’ offense coming on 50/50 balls downfield that happened to go their way. The Texans were also likely giving their best effort after getting blown out 40-0 the previous week, something they could struggle to repeat in back-to-back weeks after last week’s demoralizing loss, especially since they will be without arguably their best player on either side of the ball, left tackle Laremy Tunsil. 

The Colts are missing their two best offensive linemen, Braden Smith and Quenton Nelson, and are not the kind of team that should be favored by double digits over anyone in a normal circumstance, but the Texans without Davis Mills are a different kind of bad, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they were able to beat them by multiple scores, barring the Texans bringing their best effort for the second straight week. My calculated line actually has the Colts as 13 point favorites and, while they might not give their best effort either with a tougher game against the 49ers on deck, which makes them unbettable, they are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -10

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)

The Cardinals are the league’s last remaining undefeated team at 5-0, but they are dealing with significant absences in all parts of this team. Their offense will be without talented center Rodney Hudson due to injury. Their defense will be without stud edge defender Chandler Jones, who is in the COVID protocol. Their special teams unit will be without Ezekiel Turner due to injury and he’s probably their best special teamer. They also won’t have head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who is in the COVID protocol as well. Kingsbury’s absence will especially be a problem because he also calls the plays for this offense and is his own offensive coordinator.

The timing is bad for them too, as they have to go on the road to face a Browns team that is one of the best in the league, despite their 3-2 record. Their two losses came on the road against tough teams in the Chiefs and Chargers and they easily could have won either one of them, as both were close games throughout. Their offense ranks 7th in first down rate, their defense ranks 7th in yards per play allowed, and their special teams ranks 4th in special teams DVOA, which are the most predictive metrics for each unit. The Cardinals, meanwhile, rank 12th, 15th, and 3rd respectively in those three metrics and have been more reliant on a +5 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week (the Browns are even in turnover margin).

With all of the Cardinals’ absences, this line has shifted up from 3 to 3.5, but I thought the Browns were the slightly better of these two teams even before the Cardinals injury absences, so we’re still getting some line value with the Browns. That, however, depends on the Browns’ injury report. They’re already without running back Nick Chubb, which won’t be a crushing loss because Kareem Hunt can carry the load, but they could also be without both of their offensive tackles, Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, who both did not practice on Friday. That would be a much bigger loss and I can’t take the Browns confidently until I know at least Conklin is playing. I’m making this a low confidence pick on the Browns for now, but depending on the Browns’ injury report, I may end up betting on them.

Cleveland Browns 33 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) in London

Typically, the rule of thumb in these international games is to take the favorite, who has covered at a 66.7% rate all-time, which makes sense, given that the better team is probably better equipped to deal with playing a game after an unusual week. However, the favorite in this matchup is the Dolphins, who, despite being favored by 3 points, might not necessarily be the better team. The Dolphins are off to a disappointing 1-4 start after going 10-6 last season, but I still don’t think the public and odds makers have realized how bad they are.

Their only win came by 1 point against a middling Patriots team and the Patriots, who won the first down rate and yards per play battle, likely would have won if they had not lost one of their two lost fumbles, in which case the Dolphins would be 0-5 right now. The Dolphins did take the Raiders to overtime a few weeks ago and could have won that game, but they needed a long defensive touchdown to keep it close and lost the first down rate battle by 6.50% and the yards per play battle by 1.91 to a mediocre Raiders team. In total, the Dolphins rank 30th in first down rate and 22nd in yards per play allowed and their -75 point differential is the worst in the league, even behind the 31st ranked Jaguars (-59).

The Dolphins are also starting from a lower base point than most realize, as they were not nearly as good as their record a year ago. They faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%) and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL). The Dolphins get Tua Tagovailoa back from injury this week, but it’s unclear if he’s an upgrade on Jacoby Brissett, as both quarterbacks have played like backups this season. They’ll also be without top cornerback Xavien Howard and their two starting wide receivers Will Fuller and Devante Parker, due to injuries.

The Dolphins are still one point better than the Jaguars in my roster rankings, but that’s pretty insignificant, so we’re getting good value getting a field goal with the Jaguars, even if underdogs do tend not to cover in international games. The Jaguars are arguably the worst team in the league, so there isn’t nearly enough to bet them confidently here, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as the Dolphins are also one of the worst teams in the league and are still overvalued.

Miami Dolphins 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 19

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3

Confidence: Low