Philadelphia Eagles 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

It’s really impressive the way the Eagles have retooled without going through a true rebuild. After three straight playoff appearances from 2017-2019, including a 2017 Super Bowl Championship, the Eagles fell all the way to 4-11-1 in 2020. Making matters worse, the Eagles did so despite having the third highest combined average annual salary of their roster and, after years of expensive rosters, lacked significant financial flexibility to add to the team in free agency. And yet, just a year later, the Eagles are coming off of another post-season appearance and the arrow seems to be pointing up into 2022 and beyond.

How the Eagles have transformed their situation so quickly is complex, but a lot of it can be traced to the trade of Carson Wentz, a trade in which the Eagles were somehow able to get a 2022 first round pick and a 2021 third round pick for a declining quarterback who was owed 103 million over four years on the remainder of his contract. At this point, the Eagles could have used their first pick on a quarterback to replace Wentz, picking 6th in a loaded quarterback class, a draft slot where the Eagles could have chosen between Justin Fields and Mac Jones if they had stayed put.

Instead, the Eagles decided to bet on 2020 2nd round pick Jalen Hurts, who was highly raw, but showed flashes in a 4-game stint as the starter down the stretch in his rookie season. Rather than taking a quarterback at 6, the Eagles traded down with the Dolphins, accumulating another 2022 first round pick in the process, and ultimately selected wide receiver Devonta Smith to give Jalen Hurts someone to throw to. With three first round picks scheduled for 2022, the Eagles would have plenty of draft capital to try to acquire or trade up for another quarterback if Hurts had struggled as the starter in 2021.

Hurts wasn’t spectacular in 2021, but he showed his dual threat ability, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns on 139 carries (5.64 YPC), and he played well enough, along with the rest of this team, for the Eagles to finish in a wild card spot in the NFC. Overall, he finished as PFF’s 14th ranked quarterback across 15 starts and, while he didn’t prove to be a clear long-term franchise quarterback, he did more than enough to justify keeping his job into 2022, especially since he is still on a cheap rookie deal.

Hurts will be eligible for an extension next off-season, so the Eagles will have to make a decision on his future at some point, but, when they do, they will be doing so having seen even more of him on the field. The Eagles seem to have somewhat hedged their bet on Hurts, trading out of one of their first round picks this year to get another first round pick next year, picking up an extra 3rd in 2022 and an extra 2nd in 2024 from the Saints in the process. With two first round picks scheduled in a better quarterback draft a year from now, the Eagles could have options if they decide that Hurts isn’t worth paying long-term.

The Eagles also used one of their first round picks this year to get Hurts even more help, trading for Titans’ wide receiver AJ Brown, a dominant young wide receiver who the Titans were unwilling to sign to the kind of extension the Eagles were willing to give him, locking him up long-term on a 4-year, 100 million dollar deal immediately after acquiring him. I’ll get into Brown more later, but, with Brown in the mix, and full season as the starter under his belt, it’s well within the realm of possibility that Hurts takes another step forward in year three, especially as a passer.

The Eagles also have a solid backup quarterback for Hurts in Gardner Minshew, who fared well in two starts in place of Hurts last season, completing 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.32 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and an interception. When the Eagles acquired Minshew from the Jaguars for a late round pick last off-season, many felt Minshew was being acquired to add competition for Hurts, after he showed some promise in 20 starts in two seasons in Jacksonville (93.1 QB rating), but Hurts played well enough in 2021 that Minshew is not a legitimate threat to his starting job.

Going into the final year of his rookie deal, Minshew could find himself as a starter elsewhere in 2023, but, for now, he will remain in Philadelphia as an above average backup capable of leading the team without a significant drop off in Hurts’ absence. In addition to being a capable passer, Minshew also has some athleticism, albeit not as much as Hurts, averaging 4.93 YPC on 105 career carries. Hurts continuing to improve is the key to the Eagles taking a step forward in 2022, but they will be able to get by with Minshew for a few weeks if needed. This is a solid quarterback room and an inexpensive one at that.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

AJ Brown comes over from Tennessee after three seasons with the Titans, who took him in the 2nd round in 2019. In those three seasons, Brown has surpassed 1000 yards twice and has averaged a 69/1114/9 slash line per 16 games, all before his 25th birthday, but even that doesn’t tell the whole story of why Brown is such a good acquisition, as Brown did that despite playing on a run heavy offense, which makes him a perfect fit for the Eagles, who also have a run-heavy offense. On a per route run basis, Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the league throughout his career, averaging 2.61 yards per route run, second most by a wide receiver over the past three seasons, only behind Davante Adams. Brown has also finished in the top-9 among wide receivers on PFF all three seasons, the only wide receiver in the league to do so.

If he played on a more pass-heavy offense, Brown likely would be among the league’s leaders in receiving on an annual basis, but, even in a run heavy offense, he’s shown he can be a true #1 wide receiver and surpass the thousand yard mark consistently. He’s also never complained about playing on a run-heavy offense and willingly serves his role as a run blocker as well, so he’s really a perfect fit in Philadelphia. The Eagles may open their offense up more with Brown being added, but having a quarterback like Jalen Hurts who takes off and runs a lot on his own will always limit the amount of passes a team has per game.

Brown’s addition moves Devonta Smith into the #2 wide receiver role, but he has the upside to be a #1 caliber wide receiver long-term, as he posted a 64/916/5 slash line as a rookie, despite playing on a run-heavy offense, and ranked 25th among wide receivers on PFF in overall grade. The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, it’s not hard to see how Smith has the potential to take a step forward in year two. He might not get as many targets with Brown in town, but he’ll face more single coverage and should be a more effective and efficient target in his own right. Brown and Smith could be one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL for years to come.

The Eagles also have a talented tight end in Dallas Goedert. A 2nd round pick in 2018, Goedert always showed a lot of promise early in his career, both as a receiver and as a run blocker, finishing 10th, 5th, and 6th among tight ends on PFF in overall grade in the first three seasons of his career respectively, but he never posted big receiving totals (33/334/4, 58/607/5, 46/524/3) because he was the #2 tight end behind established starter Zach Ertz. However, Ertz was traded midway through the 2021 season, the final year of his contract, and Goedert took off, totalling 41 catches for 614 yards and 2 touchdowns in 10 games, which extrapolates to 66/982/3 per 16 games.

Not only did Goedert’s raw totals increase, but he also became more efficient, with his yards per route run average jumping from 1.59 over the first three seasons of his career to 2.34 in 2021, 2nd best in the league among tight ends, only behind George Kittle. Goedert also remained a strong run blocker and finished as PFF’s 3rd ranked tight end overall. Like Ertz, Goedert was also going into the final year of his contract last season, but the Eagles kept him on a 4-year, 57 million dollar extension. It makes him the third highest paid tight end in the league in terms of average annual value, but he’s only going into his age 27 season and has shown a tremendous upside, so he should be worth what the Eagles paid him.

With Brown, Smith, and Goedert all likely to dominate targets on a run heavy team, the Eagles likely won’t have many targets left over for other receivers. The Eagles have actually given up a first round pick to acquire a wide receiver in three straight years, taking Jalen Reagor in the first round in 2020, before taking Smith in the first round in 2021 and trading for Brown this year, but Reagor has been a massive bust, averaging just 0.93 yards per route run in two seasons in the league, while totaling just 64 catches in 28 games. Reagor may still have theoretical upside, but he’ll likely be no better than the 4th receiver entering the year, with fellow 2020 draftee Quez Watkins likely the favorite for the #3 receiver job.

Watkins was just a 6th round pick and he was actually the third wide receiver the Eagles took in 2020, but he has been by far the best wide receiver they took that year, posting a 43/647/1 slash line as the de facto #2 wide receiver last season and averaging a decent 1.54 yards per route run average in his career. Even if he doesn’t have more untapped upside, Watkins should be a solid #3 wide receiver. He might not get a lot of targets, but he should be a relatively efficient option. The Eagles also have Zach Pascal, a mediocre veteran player who was signed this off-season after averaging an uninspiring 1.15 yards per route run in four seasons with the Colts. He will compete for playing time in this receiving corps and may also be ahead of Reagor on the depth chart.

After Ertz was traded last season, undrafted free agent rookie Jack Stoll moved into the #2 tight end role, but he wasn’t used much in the passing game, catching just 4 passes for 22 yards. He did play 331 snaps, so he had a somewhat significant role, but he was only a capable blocker at most. He could improve a little bit going forward, but I wouldn’t expect much to change for him in year two and he’s likely to continue not having much of a role in the passing game. He could also face competition from veteran Richard Rodgers, who has a decent 1.19 yards per route run average for his career, but is going into his age 30 season and played just 69 snaps total in 3 games last season. There’s not likely to be much need for depth tight ends and wide receivers on a run-heavy offense with a talented trio of top options.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Eagles’ offensive line was a big part of the reason for this team’s turnaround from 2020 to 2021. The 2020 Eagles’ offensive line led the league in adjusted games lost to injury, with just one of their expected starting five offensive linemen playing more than 9 games, but better health wasn’t the primary reason for their improvement in 2021. In fact, of the four expected starters who missed significant time in 2020, only one of them was still with the Eagles as a regular starter in 2021.

That one offensive lineman is right tackle Lane Johnson though and he was a big part of the reason for their turnaround, even if he’s only one player. Johnson has had durability problems throughout his career, missing 29 total across the first 8 seasons of his career from 2013-2020, and, after a relatively down year across just 405 snaps in 2020, it was fair to wonder if he was breaking down physically and on the decline, now on the wrong side of 30.

However, Johnson turned the clock back a little bit in 2021, finishing 11th among offensive tackles on PFF, his 7th finish in the top-23 in nine seasons in the league. He still missed 4 games and, now going into his age 32 season, there are still concerns that he could start to decline and/or miss more time with injury. Even if he does decline, he has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter when healthy, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t have quite as good of a season as he did a season ago.

Fortunately, the Eagles have a good swing tackle who can fill in for Johnson if needed in Andre Dillard. Dillard was actually a first round selection by the Eagles in 2019 and was expected to be their long-term left tackle, but he spent his rookie year mostly on the bench behind veteran Jason Peters and then, when he was expected to take over for Peters, he was one of the many expected starters on the 2020 Eagles’ offensive line to miss significant time with injury, actually missing the entire season.

In his absence, Jordan Mailata established himself as the long-term left tackle, finishing above average on PFF in 10 starts, leaving Dillard with a bench role again in 2021. Dillard has hardly played in his career, playing just 677 total career snaps, but he’s held up pretty well in limited action and would likely start for several teams around the league, so he’s a good backup option to have. He could probably hold down the fort for an extended period of time if need be.

The Eagles locked Mailata up with a 4-year, 64 million dollar extension last off-season, with the 2018 7th round pick heading into the final year of his rookie deal, even though he only had been a starter for one season, and it proved to be a forward thinking extension, with Mailata improving even more in his second season as a starter, finishing as PFF’s 3rd ranked offensive tackle, an improvement that was as big of a reason as any for the Eagles’ improved offensive line from 2020 to 2021. Mailata is a one-year wonder in terms of being an elite level offensive tackle and he’s not a guarantee to repeat the best season of his career, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season, may have further untapped upside, and could develop into one of the best offensive tackles in the league for years to come.

Center Jason Kelce also had a much better year in 2021 compared to 2020, another reason for this offensive line’s improvement. Kelce was the only Eagles starting offensive lineman who didn’t miss time with injury in 2020, actually playing all 16 games, but he was just PFF’s 12th ranked center, a big drop off for a player who had finished #1 among centers on PFF in three straight seasons prior to 2020. Kelce was also getting up there in age so, like Johnson, it was fair to wonder if his best days were ahead of him, but, instead, he bounced back with a 3rd ranked finish among centers on PFF, while making every start, for the 7th straight season.

Kelce is now heading into his age 35 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined, but he also still has a good chance to remain an above average starter even if he does. Going into the final year of his contract, Kelce could easily be entering his final season in the league, having contemplated retirement in recent off-seasons, but the Eagles have prepared for the future by drafting Cam Jurgens in the 2nd round of this year’s draft to be their center of the future. He would also fill in if Kelce happened to miss significant time or if he dropped off consistently and needed to be benched.

The Eagles also used a 2nd round pick on an offensive lineman in the 2021 NFL Draft, taking Landon Dickerson, who fared pretty well in 13 rookie year starts, primarily at left guard, finishing slightly above average on PFF, another part of the reason why the Eagles were improved upfront last season. He could take another step forward in 2022 and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid starter, now locked in as the starting left guard long-term.

The only position unsettled on this offensive line is right guard. Nate Herbig made 17 starts for the Eagles over the past two seasons as an injury replacement, mostly at right guard, and he held up pretty well, but he’s no longer with the team. With Herbig gone, the Eagles will be hoping for a healthier season from Isaac Seumalo, who not only missed significant time in 2020 (7 games missed) when most of the Eagles’ offensive linemen did, but also missed another 14 games with injury last season.

Prior to his last two injury plagued seasons, Seumalo was PFF’s 19th ranked guard in 16 starts in 2019 and the 2016 3rd round pick has mostly been a solid starter when healthy in 43 starts in 6 seasons in the league, so, still only going into his age 29 season, he has a good chance to be a solid starter if healthy this season, but that could be a big if, given his recent history. Seumalo will be pushed for his starting role by 2020 4th round pick Jack Driscoll, who will likely settle in as a backup, but he held up pretty well in nine starts last season and could be a capable starter long-term. The Eagles could also give Cam Jurgens a look at guard, while he’s waiting to take over for Kelce at center long-term. Even with an unsettled situation at right guard and a couple key players getting older (Kelce and Johnson), this is a talented offensive line with plenty of depth.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Eagles had a great running game last season, finishing 4th in the NFL with 4.94 YPC and leading the league with 2,715 total rushing yards, but that was primarily because of quarterback Jalen Hurts, as, not only he did lead the team in carries, yards, and touchdowns, but also his ability to take off and run makes it harder for the defense to play the run straight up and opens up more running lanes for running backs, which was especially the case for the Eagles, given their talented offensive line. The running backs themselves were not bad though, with Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell all earning average or better grades from PFF.

Sanders led the group with 754 yards on 137 carries (5.50 YPC), despite being limited to 12 games. A 2019 2nd round pick, Sanders has never surpassed 179 carries in a season and has benefitted from being in some good running situations, but his career 5.08 YPC average is impressive and he should continue being effective, still in a good running situation. Scott was Sanders’ direct backup and had 87 carries on the season, but 47 of those came in four games when Sanders was out, meaning if Sanders is healthier in 2022, Scott likely won’t have much of a role. He has a 4.35 YPC average for his career, but he also has just 228 career carries and the 87 carries he had last season were a career high.

Gainwell was the Eagles’ least effective runner last season in terms of PFF grade, but he wasn’t bad, with a 4.28 YPC average on 68 carries and he was also the most effective of the bunch in passing situations, with a 1.39 yards per route run average. His passing game success was not surprising, considering he had 51 catches for 610 yards in his final season at the University of Memphis, before the Eagles took him in the 5th round in 2021. Sanders and Scott also had a passing game role, but neither one was as effective as Gainwell, averaging 0.81 and 1.00 yards per route run respectively.

Sanders had a 1.61 yards per route run average as a rookie in 2019, but he has seen that drop drastically to 0.72 over the past two seasons, while Scott has just a 1.00 yards per route run average over the past two seasons, so Gainwell should continue having a big passing game role, possibly even a bigger role, now in his second season in the league. He could also have an expanded role as a runner and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him overtake Scott as the #2 on the team for carry opportunities. This isn’t the most talented backfield, but the Eagles have some solid options.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The two fixtures on the Eagles defensive line for years have been edge defender Brandon Graham and interior defender Fletcher Cox, first round picks in 2010 and 2012 respectively, who have been with the Eagles their entire careers. Both are on the decline, however, now on the wrong side of 30. I will get into Fletcher Cox later, but Graham is coming off of mostly a lost season due to a torn achilles, playing just 50 snaps in two games before the injury last season.

It’s a tough injury to come back from for a player going into his age 34 season, but, even if Graham isn’t as good as he was in his prime, he could still be an above average rotational player for the Eagles in 2022. In total, Graham had 56 sacks, 82 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate from 2012-2020, while playing at a high level against the run, only missing one game total in nine seasons, and finishing in the top-11 among edge defenders on PFF in seven of those nine seasons.

The Eagles have prepared for life after Graham and even made Graham take a pay cut down to 7.5 million on a restructured contract, so Graham won’t be expected to play as big of a role as he has in the past. Josh Sweat, a 4th round pick in 2018, has broken out in Graham’s absence and the Eagles added Haason Reddick in free agency as well, bringing him in on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal. Sweat had shown potential in the past prior to last season, but he had only played 842 snaps in three seasons, with his highest snap total only being 422 in 2020.

In 2021, with Graham out, Sweat got a chance to start and play a bigger role (654 snaps) and he responded with the best year of his career, finishing 23rd among edge defenders on PFF and totaling 7.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Sweat is a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter, but he’s also only going into his age 25 and has the upside to be even better going forward. The Eagles clearly believe in his long-term potential, locking him up on a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal just a few games into last season, which was the last year of his rookie deal.

Reddick, meanwhile, was a 1st round pick of the Cardinals in 2017. He entered the league with a lot of potential and versatility, but took until his 4th season to find his best position at the NFL level, finishing 24th among edge defenders on PFF in 2020, after being middling at best early in his career. He especially played well as a pass rusher in 2020, with 12.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate. Reddick was still met with a cold market last off-season as a free agent and had to settle for a one-year deal with the Panthers worth just 6 million, but Reddick proved it again in Carolina, with 11 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate, leading to a much bigger deal from the Eagles this off-season. Reddick is a middling run defender at best, but, still in his prime in his age 28 season, he should continue his effectiveness as a pass rusher with his new team.

The Eagles also brought back Derek Barnett as a free agent and he’ll give them the depth the Eagles have always liked on the defensive line. Barnett was a first round pick in 2017, but hasn’t developed into more than a solid rotational player. He’s at his best against the run, but is underwhelming as a pass rusher, with 21.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate in 64 games in his career, which is why he had to settle for just a 3-year, 15.21 million dollar deal from the Eagles in free agency this off-season. He will almost definitely play a smaller role than the career high 718 snaps he played last season, with Graham returning from injury and Reddick being added. The Eagles also have 2021 6th round pick Tarron Jackson, who showed some potential on 253 snaps as a rookie. This is once again a deep and talented edge defender group.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While Brandon Graham had to take a pay cut in order to stay on the roster for 2022, Fletcher Cox was actually released this off-season and tested the open market, before returning to the Eagles on a reduced deal. He’ll still make 14 million this season, but he’s set to hit the open market again next off-season, so this could easily be his final season in Philadelphia, and, going into his age 32 season, Cox has shown significant decline in recent years.

Cox has still been an above average starter, but he’s dropped off significantly since finishing in the top-8 among interior defenders on PFF in every season from 2015-2019, excelling against the run and totaling 35.5 sacks, 66 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate over those four seasons. His pressure rate has dropped to 9.3% over the past two seasons and his run defense dropped off significantly as well. He could still have another couple solid seasons left in the tank, but he could also continue declining and his best days are almost definitely behind him.

With Cox’s days with the team likely coming to an end soon one way or another, the Eagles used a first round pick on Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis. The Eagles also have Javon Hargrave, who is a solid starter next to Cox, so Davis will begin his career as a reserve, but the Eagles rotate linemen regularly and with, Hargrave also heading into a contract year, there should be an opportunity for Davis to become a starter in 2023 one way or another. Hargrave has struggled against the run since joining the Eagles on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, but he’s excelled as a pass rusher, with 12 sacks, 14 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 31 games.

Hargrave has also been a better run stopper in the past and has an impressive 10.5% pressure rate for his career, so he has the upside to be a more well-rounded player in 2022, which will be his age 29 season. The Eagles also have 2021 3rd round pick Milton Williams as a reserve option with upside, but he struggled as a rookie, finishing 110th out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF, and he is no guarantee to be significantly improved in his second season in the league in 2022. With Cox, Hargrave, and Davis atop the depth chart, Williams won’t have a big role, as the Eagles have a locked-in top trio of interior defenders, even if Davis is a rookie and Cox is an aging player on the decline.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Alex Singleton led the Eagles in tackles each of the past two seasons, with 257 combined tackles total over that stretch, but he went elsewhere as a free agent this off-season and the Eagles are arguably better off without him. Singleton was a solid run stuffer, but he struggled mightily in coverage and has never earned more than a middling grade from PFF for a season as a result. Meanwhile, Singleton’s replacement, Kyzir White, is a more complete player.

A 4th round pick in 2018 by the Chargers, White was an average or better linebacker in all four seasons in Los Angeles, with his best year coming last year, when he finished 27th among off ball linebackers in overall grade on PFF and played the 17th most snaps in the league by an off ball linebacker with 979. He might not be quite as good in 2022, but he should still be at least a solid starter, so he was a great value on just a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal.

The Eagles also added Georgia’s Nakobe Dean with a third round pick, but he’s unlikely to have a big role as a rookie, with incumbent every down linebacker TJ Edwards very likely to be ahead of him on the depth chart, playing roughly the same role as a year ago. Edwards had almost as many tackles as Singleton last season (137 vs. 130), but was the much better overall player, finishing 11th among off ball linebackers on PFF in overall grade.

Undrafted in 2019, Edwards played a career high in snaps last season, but he also was PFF’s 23rd ranked off ball linebacker across 492 snaps in 2020, after flashing on 112 snaps as a rookie, so he’s not a complete one-year wonder. Even if he doesn’t match the best season of his career again in 2022, he should still form a solid linebacker duo with White, with Dean serving as depth and a third linebacker in obvious running situations. A potential first round pick before injury concerns, Dean profiles as a future starter long-term, but will have to wait his turn, with Edwards and White both hitting free agency next off-season.

The Eagles also have 2020 3rd round pick Davion Taylor, who theoretically has upside, but he’s struggled mightily across 283 career snaps and the addition of Dean is not a good sign for his long-term chances. Taylor probably has a better chance of not making the Eagles’ final roster than he does of carving out a consistent role in this defense. This is a solid linebacking corps, with a pair of solid starters in Kyzir White and TJ Edwards and a promising third option in Nakobe Dean.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback was arguably the position where the Eagles were most improved from 2020 to 2021. The Eagles acquired long-time Lions #1 cornerback Darius Slay two off-seasons ago to upgrade their secondary, giving up a third round and a fifth round pick and paying Slay near the top of the cornerback market on a 3-year, 50.05 million dollar extension, but he struggled through a career worst year in his first season in Philadelphia, while the rest of the Eagles’ cornerbacks were given worse.

In 2021, things were much better, in large part to a bounce back year from Slay, who finished 7th among cornerbacks on PFF, his 6th season in the top-28 at his position over the past 8 seasons. Slay is now going into his age 31 season, so there is some concern that he may decline, especially since he’s not long removed from his down 2020 season, but he has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter for another season.

The Eagles also benefited from signing veteran cornerback Steven Nelson to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal. Nelson was a consistently average or better starter in his years with the Chiefs and Steelers, but was available at a reasonable price last off-season after the cap strapped Steelers let him go ahead of the final year of his contract, which would have paid him 8.25 million. Nelson didn’t have the best season of his career in Philadelphia, but was still a solid starter across 16 starts, which gave the Eagles a much needed #2 cornerback. Nelson was only on a one-year deal though and signed elsewhere this off-season, so the Eagles were in the market for a replacement this off-season.

They found one in James Bradberry, who was in a similar situation as Nelson last off-season, owed 13.5 million non-guaranteed from the Giants and forced to settle for 7.25 million on a one-year deal as a free agent. Bradberry wasn’t as good of a value as Nelson, but he could be an upgrade. A 2nd round pick in 2016 by the Panthers, Bradberry has been a bit inconsistent in his career, but he’s been at least an average starter throughout his career (91 starts in 92 games), with his best season coming in a 7th ranked finish on PFF in 2020. Still only in his age 29 season, Bradberry should remain at least a solid starter in his first season in Philadelphia.

Avonte Maddox was the Eagles’ #3 cornerback last season and he also was a big part of why this cornerback group improved from 2020 to 2021, as Maddox struggled mightily in 2020, finishing 132nd out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF across 509 snaps, before finishing the 2021 season as PFF’s 22nd ranked cornerback across 729 snaps. A 4th round pick in 2018, Maddox was never more than a middling cornerback in his first three seasons in the league and only played about half the snaps, so he’s a one-year wonder, but he’s still only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average cornerback going forward. If Maddox slips up or any of the Eagles’ cornerbacks suffer an injury, they have 2021 4th round pick Zech McPhearson waiting in the wings and he showed promise on 179 snaps as a rookie in a similar reserve role.

Safety was one of the Eagles’ weaker position groups last season, with middling veterans Rodney McLeod and Anthony Harris being the starters. McLeod signed with the Colts this off-season for his age 32 season, but the Eagles probably won’t miss him much and his likely replacement, 2019 6th round pick Marcus Epps, could easily prove to be an upgrade, after earning above average grades from PFF on snap counts of 365 and 505 in 2020 and 2021 respectively. He has the upside to be an above average starter and should hold off his top competition for the role, 2020 4th round pick K’Von Wallace, who has struggled across 386 career defensive snaps.

Harris remains as the other starter, for his age 31 season. Harris had a couple years in his prime when he was one of the best safeties in the league, finishing 5th among safeties on PFF in 2018 and 2nd in 2019, but he hasn’t come close to playing at that level in any of his other five seasons in the league and he’s fallen off pretty quickly in two seasons since his last dominant year, finishing the 2021 season as PFF’s 57th ranked safety out of 98 eligible. Harris could remain a capable starter and may even have some bounce back potential, but he could also easily continue declining and struggle for most of the season. Slay and Maddox might not repeat last year’s strong performances and Harris could be a weak spot in this secondary, but both Epps and Bradberry could prove to be an upgrade on the player they are replacing and, overall, this is still a solid secondary.

Grade: B+

Special Teams

The Eagles had a middling special teams last season, ranking 15th in special teams DVOA, with their biggest strength being kicker Jake Elliott, who was among the best in the league at his position. Elliott returns for 2022, but their special teams were otherwise underwhelming last season and they didn’t make any significant changes to any part of this unit. If Elliott can continue his elite play, this should remain a solid overall special teams unit, but they would likely struggle if he happened to regress.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Eagles weren’t good enough to win the division or to get out of the first round of the playoffs last season, but they have a good chance to do one or both of those things this season, primarily due to the addition of AJ Brown, who is a perfect fit for their run heavy offense, which he should elevate significantly by giving them a legitimate #1 receiver to go with talented complementary pass catchers Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, as well as a talented offensive line and running game. The Eagles also added Haason Reddick, Kyzir White, and James Bradberry this off-season, who should all be above average starters for them on defense. This team doesn’t have any real weaknesses now and should be among the better teams in the league. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Eagles beat up on bad teams last season, but they still have one of the easiest schedules in the league this season and are better on both sides of the field. They are legitimate contenders, especially in the weaker NFC.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC East

Indianapolis Colts 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

The Colts thought they were set for the foreseeable future under center with former #1 overall pick Andrew Luck, who made three Pro Bowls in his first five seasons in the league from 2012-2016. However, Luck missed all of 2017 with injury and, while he returned in 2018 to make another Pro Bowl and win Comeback Player of the Year, Luck opted to retire after the 2018 season at the age of just 29, citing years of nagging injuries. That led to a quarterback carousel that has seen the Colts start a different quarterback week 1 every season, dating back to Luck’s missed season in 2017.

Luck was first replaced by backup Jacoby Brissett in 2019, but he proved to be a low upside option and was replaced by aging future Hall of Famer Philip Rivers, who played well enough in 2020 to make the post-season, but the Colts didn’t make any noise once they were there and Rivers hung them up after his lone season with Indianapolis. The Colts then traded a first and third round pick to the Eagles last off-season for Carson Wentz, a reclamation project who the Colts thought could discover his old form, reunited with former Eagles offensive coordinator and current Colts head coach Frank Reich.

Wentz was better in 2021 than he was in his final season in Philadelphia, when he finished as PFF’s 34th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible, but Wentz still only finished 23rd out of 39 eligible quarterbacks and was a limiting factor that kept one of the best rushing teams in the league out of the post-season. The Colts also paid Wentz 21.3 million for 2021, in addition to giving up a first and third round draft pick, so they clearly overpaid for a year of middling at best quarterback play.

Fortunately, the Colts were able to play the quarterback market perfectly this off-season, taking advantage of unprecedented movement at the quarterback position. They traded Wentz at the very beginning of the off-season, getting back a pair of third round picks for him from Washington, who also took on the rest of his contract, and then they waited out the quarterback market to get Matt Ryan from the Falcons for just a single third round pick.

Not only did the Colts secure an extra third round pick in the exchange, helping them recoup draft capital from their original trade for Wentz, but the Colts also got an upgrade at the quarterback position, at a salary lower monetary cost (28.3 million to due Wentz in 2022 vs. 24.7 million for Ryan). Ryan is quite a bit older, going into his age 37 season, and he’s shown some decline in recent years, but he has still been at least a solid starting quarterback.

Over the past three seasons, Ryan has completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 7.22 YPA, 72 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions, while finishing 18th, 11th, and 16th among quarterbacks on PFF, which is solid play, but it’s also a pretty noticeable drop off for a quarterback who finished in the top-10 among quarterbacks on PFF in 9 of his first 11 seasons in the league prior to the last three seasons. It’s always possible his play completely falls off at his age, but he should have a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, similar to Rivers in 2020. The Colts did well to maneuver to get Ryan as a replacement for Wentz under center this off-season, picking up an extra third round pick in the process.

The Colts also added veteran backup Nick Foles, reuniting him with Frank Reich, with whom he won a Super Bowl in Philadelphia. Reuniting Wentz with Reich might not have saved his career or brought back his old form, but it did get better play out of him and it could conceivably do the same for Foles, who has completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of just 6.12 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 12 starts in three seasons since leaving the Eagles. Foles is now going into his age 33 season, but he does give the Colts some upside as a backup, given how well he’s played in certain stretches of his career. Ryan is rarely out of the lineup (3 games missed in 14 seasons in the league), but if he does miss time, Foles could perform well in his absence for a few games.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Colts had a dominant running game last season, ranking second in the NFL with 5.09 YPC and second in the NFL with 2,540 total rushing yards. The vast majority of that production came from feature back Jonathan Taylor, who led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards (Nick Chubb was 2nd with 1,259) and 18 rushing touchdowns (no one else had more than 15) on 332 carries (Najee Harris was 2nd with 307).

Taylor’s 5.45 YPC average was among the best in the NFL and the advanced metrics loved his performance as well, as he ranked third with 3.83 yards per carry average contract, led the league with 66 broken tackles, and ranked 13th with a 56% carry success rate, while also leading the league with 23 carries of 15 yards per more. This comes after a rookie season where the 2020 2nd round pick rushed for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) and finished as PFF’s 6th ranked running back.

Unfortunately, Taylor plays a position where it’s very hard to dominate like that two years in a row. In fact, there is almost no history of a running back producing like Taylor did last season and then repeating it the following season. Of the 23 running backs ever to rush for more than 1,700 yards in a season, only 7 of them ever surpassed that total again in their career, only one of them repeated it a third time, only 3 surpassed that total again the following season, and only 2 improved their rushing total the following season.

In total those 23 running backs rushed for an average of 1,872 yards on 367 carries (5.10 YPC) and 15 touchdowns in 30 total seasons with more than 1,700 rushing yards, but the following season, they saw their YPC fall by 13.9%, their carries fall by 24.3%, their rushing yards fall by 35.0%, and their rushing touchdowns fall by a whopping 41.8%. Applying those percentages to Taylor’s 2021 production gets 1,178 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 251 carries (4.69 YPC), which are still good numbers, and Taylor’s youth, only going into his age 23 season and his third year in the league, gives him a better shot to exceed those numbers than if Taylor were in the middle of his career, but it would still be a surprise to see him be quite as good as he was last season again. He should remain one of the best running backs in the NFL, but if he’s only good, instead of incredible, that will have a noticeable effect on this offense.

Taylor is unspectacular in the passing game, with a 1.32 yards per route run average in his career, and Nyheim Hines frequently spells him in obvious passing situations, a role he has thrived in throughout his 4 seasons in the league, averaging a 52/378/2 slash line per 16 games and a 1.48 yards per route run average, including 1.69 yards per route run over the past two seasons combined. Hines also averages about 70.5 carries per season and should see a similar total in 2022, even though he’s been pretty ineffective overall, with a 4.15 YPC average.

The Colts took a flyer on veteran free agent Phillip Lindsay this off-season and he could also compete for carries. Undrafted in 2018, Lindsay burst onto the scene with back-to-back thousand year seasons with the Broncos to begin his career, totaling 2,048 yards and 16 touchdowns on 416 carries (4.92 YPC) combined across the two seasons, but he’s completely fallen off since, totaling just 751 yards and 2 touchdowns on 206 carries (3.65 YPC) as a member of three different teams over the past two seasons.

Lindsay is somewhat young still, only in his age 28 season, but he’s undersized at 5-8 190 and has not shown the same burst over the past two seasons. He could prove to be a worthwhile flyer and compete to be the #2 back on this offense, but he could also just as easily end up off the final roster. He doesn’t show much in the passing game either, with a career 0.95 yards per route run average. This is a deep backfield and it’s also led by one of the top running backs in the league.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another thing that should hurt the Colts’ running game, and their offense as a whole, is their declining offensive line. From 2018-2020, the Colts had probably the best offensive line in the NFL and they had rare continuity, with the same starters in all three seasons and no significant injury absences. However, the cracks started to show last off-season when long-time left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired and, while he was replaced by veteran Eric Fisher, he was a downgrade and he is also now no longer with the team, with no clear replacement being added. Also gone now is right guard Mark Glowinski, who signed with the Giants this off-season and also was not replaced in any sort of meaningful way. The rest of the group remains, but the Colts have clear weak spots at left tackle and right guard now.

Career backup Matt Pryor will likely take over one starting spot. The 2018 6th round pick has made 15 career starts with the Eagles and Colts in four seasons in the league, 2 at left tackle, 7 at right guard, and 6 at right tackle and he has shown some promise, but he is a projection to a season long starting role and could easily struggle. The Colts signed veteran journeyman Dennis Kelly this off-season and he’s mostly been solid in his career when counted on to play, but he’s mostly played on the right side in his career, with 36 career starts at right tackle, 11 at left tackle, and 4 at right guard, and he’s going into his age 32 season, so he would be a shaky season-long starting option as well.

The Colts also used a 3rd round pick on Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann, a versatile offensive line prospect who could earn a starting role somewhere by the end of the season. Also in the mix for playing time are a pair of recent draftees, 2020 5th round pick Danny Pinter and 2021 7th round pick Will Fries. Pinter has shown some promise in two years in the league, but he is still very unproven with just 329 career snaps played and he’s mostly seen action at center, while Fries played just 22 snaps as a rookie and did nothing to suggest he profiles as a long-term starter. Whoever wins the starting left tackle and right guard jobs will likely be a liability for the Colts’ offensive line.

The good news for the Colts’ offensive line is they have a good chance to get better play from left guard Quenton Nelson and center Ryan Kelly, who both dealt with injuries for much of last season and, as a result, they struggled by their standards. Kelly only missed three games, but struggled when on the field, finishing 34th out of 41 eligible centers on PFF, after the 2016 1st round pick finished in the top-14 at his position of PFF in each of the previous three seasons. Going into his age 29 season, Kelly could bounce back, but durability has been a concern for him throughout his career, as he’s missed 17 games in 6 seasons and has been limited in several others.

Nelson, meanwhile, missed four games, but also did not look anywhere near his top form when on the field. He still finished 26th among guards on PFF, but that was a steep drop off for a player who finished 5th, 2nd, and 4th in the first three seasons of his career from 2018-2020. Nelson had never missed a game prior to last season and is only in his age 26 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential. Thus far in his career, only injuries have kept the 2018 6th overall pick from being one of the top offensive linemen in the entire NFL.

Right tackle Braden Smith was also selected in the 2018 NFL Draft, 37th overall at the top of the second round, and he has also developed into one of the best players in the league at his position. Smith missed six games last season, but played at his top level when on the field, finishing 16th among offensive tackles on PFF, after finishing 29th, 9th, and 17th in the first three seasons of his career respectively. He hasn’t always been the most durable player, missing time in three of four seasons in the league, but he has a good chance to play more than the 11 games he played last season. The Colts will need Kelly, Nelson, and Smith to be at their healthiest and best to compensate for their weaknesses at left tackle and right guard.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ receiving corps was a weakness last season, with Michael Pittman topping 1000 yards receiving, but their 2nd leading receiver finishing with a 38/384/3 slash line and no other wide receivers averaging more than 1.50 yards per route run. Their second leading receiver was Zach Pascal, who averaged just 0.78 yards per route run. Pascal is no longer with the team, which should be addition by subtraction, and the Colts have also yet to retain TY Hilton, who still had a decent 1.48 yards per route run average last season, but missed 7 games with injury and now heads into his age 33 season.

The Colts could still opt to bring Hilton back for what would be his 11th season with the Colts, assuming he even wants to play, after reportedly flirting with retirement for much of the off-season, but, for now, the Colts are going with a youth movement at wide receiver. Pittman will return as the #1 receiver and the 2020 2nd round pick is still only in his 3rd season in the league, while 2nd round rookie Alec Pierce and inexperienced 2019 2nd round pick Parris Campbell are expected to be the other starters in three wide receiver sets.

Pierce comes with a lot of upside, but could be overmatched in a large role in year one, while Campbell’s inexperience comes primarily as a result of injuries, which have limited him to just 436 snaps in 15 games in three seasons in the league, making him a complete wild card in terms of what he can contribute in his 4th season in the league. The Colts also lack depth at the position, with their top reserve options being Keke Coutee, Ashton Dulin, and Dezmon Patmon.

Coutee has shown promise with 1.49 yards per route run in his career, but the 5-11 180 pounder is a slot only option and played just 33 snaps for the Colts last season after the Texans made him a final cut last off-season, following three injury plagued seasons in Houston (25 of a possible 48 games missed). Dulin and Patmon, meanwhile, have shown very little in limited action since joining the Colts as a 2019 undrafted free agent and a 2020 6th round pick respectively.

Given the state of the rest of the Colts wide receiver group, the Colts will once again rely heavily on Pittman, who ranked 16th in the NFL last season with 129 targets and took them for a 88/1082/6 slash line, while averaging 1.95 yards per route run and finishing as PFF’s 21st ranked wide receiver. Pittman was not an elite #1 receiver and is still a one-year wonder, after averaging just 1.37 yards per route run in a limited role as a rookie, but he also has the talent and the potential get better going forward and could easily develop into a #1 caliber wide receiver for years to come. The Colts will have to hope he can do so again this season, given their other options, and they are probably expecting him to take another step forward, with another year under his belt and a likely upgrade under center.

The Colts’ also didn’t get much out of their tight ends last season. Mo Alie-Cox led the way with a 24/316/4 slash line and a 1.28 yards per route run average, while splitting playing time with Jack Doyle, who finished with a 29/302/3 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average, Doyle retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 32 season, and the Colts will turn to some young players to replace him.

Kylen Granson played 227 snaps as the third tight end last season and, while he was underwhelming in his limited action, the 2021 4th round pick still has the upside to be better going forward. The Colts also used 3rd and 6th round picks on tight ends in this year’s draft, first taking Virginia’s Jelani Woods and then taking Youngstown State’s Andrew Ogletree. They’ll likely open the season as the 3rd and 4th tight ends, but they have the potential to carve out a role by the end of the season, with Woods being the more likely of the two to develop, due to his higher draft status.

With young, inexperienced players behind him on the depth chart, Mo Alie-Cox will continue to have a big role. Undrafted in 2017, Alie-Cox showed potential early in his career, averaging 1.88 yards per route run through the 2020 season, albeit in limited action. He couldn’t continue that into a larger role in 2021, but he wasn’t bad as a receiver and he had his best year as a blocker. Now going into his age 29 season, he probably doesn’t have any untapped upside, but has a good chance to be at least a capable starter. This looks like an underwhelming receiving corps again, one that will be very reliant on Michael Pittman again, but they at least have some young players with some upside and it wouldn’t be hard for this group to be better than a year ago, at least by default.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Colts made a rare player-for-player trade with no draft compensation involved this off-season, swapping cornerback Rock Ya-Sin for Raiders edge defender Yannick Ngakoue. Ya-Sin was a promising young cornerback, earning an above average grade from PFF on 592 snaps in 13 games last season, and was set to make just 2.54 million for his age 26 season in 2022, the final year of his rookie deal, while Ngakoue is set to make a considerable amount more, owed 13 million in the final year of a 2-year, 26 million dollar deal he signed with the Raiders last off-season, so he’ll have to make significantly more impact than Ya-Sin would have and I’m not sure he will.

Ngakoue is still relatively young, in his age 27 season, and has fared well as a pass rusher in recent years, totaling 47.5 sacks, 68 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 79 games over the past five seasons combined, but his run defense is horrendous and it’s concerning that he’s now on his 5th team (Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens, Raiders, and Colts) in three years, moving for the third time by trade. Last season was his worst season against the run, when he finished dead last among edge defenders on PFF in run grade, likely a big part of the reason why the Raiders moved on from him for the more well-rounded Chandler Jones, who wasn’t even that much more expensive (51 million over 3 years).

Ngakoue should remain an effective pass rusher, but his run defense will hurt the Colts and he’s not nearly as good of a value as Ya-Sin would have been in the final year of his rookie deal. The Colts also have already committed a lot of draft capital to the edge defender position in recent years, most recently using their first two draft picks in 2021 on Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, so adding someone like Ngakoue at a high salary didn’t seem necessary.

Odeyingbo didn’t make his debut until week 8 because he was coming off of a torn achilles, but he could have been a first round pick if he was healthy during the draft and, even though he only was about average on 173 snaps as a rookie, he has the upside to be a lot better in year two, now another year removed from his injury. Paye, meanwhile, played 638 snaps as a rookie and held up pretty well, finishing in the 68th percentile among edge defenders on PFF. Like Odeyingbo, he also has a good chance to take a step forward in year two. Odeyingbo is the bigger of the two edge defenders and somewhat frequently lined up on the interior in passing situations, something he could continue to do in 2022.

The Colts also brought back 2018 2nd round pick Tyquan Lewis on a 1-year, 2.545 million dollar deal and he also has played a hybrid edge/interior role in the past for the Colts. Lewis hasn’t shown much overall since being drafted high, never topping 415 snaps in a season and totaling just a 8.9% pressure rate for his career, which is why he had to settle for a cheap one-year deal back with the Colts as a free agent, but he was in the middle of the best year of his career last season before a knee injury ended it after 311 snaps in 8 games, with 2.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate, while playing well against the run.

There’s no guarantee Lewis can keep that up over a full season, but he probably won’t have as big of a role with Ngakoue coming in and Odeyingbo expected to be healthy, and he has a good chance to be a useful rotational player. Lewis’ injury last season more or less coincided with Odeyingbo’s return, so the Colts didn’t have both available at the same time much last season. Both could continue seeing action on the interior in passing situations in 2022, as the Colts are not as deep at that position as they are on the edge.

The Colts also have 2019 2nd round pick Ben Banogu as an option on the edge, but he hasn’t shown much of anything in three years in the league and is competing for a roster spot more than anything, after playing just 440 snaps in 3 seasons in the league and averaging just a 8.9% pressure rate, while struggling as a run defender as well. Even if he makes the final roster, he’s unlikely to see much action in a deep position group, albeit one that lacks an established every down player, with Ngakoue being a huge liability against the run and Paye and Odeyingbo only being in their second years in the league and yet to break out.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Colts are thin at the interior defender position and they’ll be even thinner with key reserve Taylor Stallworth (331 snaps in 2021) now in Kansas City. The Colts used 5th and 6th round picks on Cincinnati’s Curtis Brooks and Missouri State’s Eric Johnson and it’s possible one or both have to play significant roles in year one, but both would likely be overmatched if they did. The Colts signed RJ McIntosh this off-season, but the 2018 5th round pick hasn’t played a snap in two seasons, after playing 179 nondescript snaps across the first two seasons in the league in 2018-2019.

Without established depth on the interior, it’s not hard to see how the Colts could use Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis on the interior regularly. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart both return as the starters and both will likely have to play big snap counts again, after playing 843 snaps (7th in the NFL among interior defenders) and 643 snaps respectively last season. Both played well on those big snap counts too, finishing 23rd and 20th respectively among interior defenders on PFF.

For Buckner, last year’s performance was nothing new and, in fact, was something of a down year by his standards, as he finished with his worst grade from PFF since his rookie season in 2016. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, Buckner was PFF’s 4th ranked interior defender as recently as 2020, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was closer to that level in 2022, as compared to his 23rd ranked finish in 2021. Also a talented run defender, Buckner has totaled 45 sacks, 81 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as almost exclusively an interior defender in 95 games in his career, while missing just two games total and averaging 54.0 snaps per game.

Stewart, on the other hand, had a career best season in 2021. The 2017 4th round pick was also solid on snap counts of 627 and 581 respectively in 2019 and 2020 and has essentially gotten better in every season of his career. The 6-4 333 entered the league as purely a situational run stuffer and he’s still at his best against the run, but has developed into a capable pass rusher as well, with a 6.3% pressure rate over the past three seasons. He might not repeat the best season of his career in 2022, but he’s still only in his age 29 season and I see no reason he wouldn’t at least be a solid starter, while playing a similar snap count to the past three seasons. He and Buckner remain as a talented starting duo at a position with questionable depth.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Along with DeForest Buckner, the Colts’ other top defensive player is off ball linebacker Darius Leonard, who has been one of the best players in the league at his position since he entered the league as a 2nd round pick in 2018, finishing in the top-10 among off ball linebackers on PFF in all four seasons, while playing 58 of 65 games and averaging 62.2 snaps per game as a true every down linebacker. The Colts locked him up on a 5-year, 98.5 million dollar extension last off-season ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal, making him the highest paid off ball linebacker in the league, and he’s still worth every penny, even at that place. Only in his age 27 season, without a serious injury history, there’s no reason to expect any drop off from Leonard any time soon.

Bobby Okereke also played an every down role in this linebacking corps last season, playing the 7th most snaps in the NFL by an off ball linebacker with 1,072, and, while he obviously wasn’t as good as Leonard, he held up pretty well in his big role, finishing in the 57th percentile among off ball linebackers on PFF. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Okereke has only been an every down player for one season, but he flashed in limited action as a part-time player in the first two seasons of his career and he could easily remain a solid player in 2022 and beyond, still only in his age 26 season.

EJ Speed, a 2019 5th round pick, and Zaire Franklin, a 2018 7th round pick, return to reserve roles, after playing 146 snaps and 201 snaps respectively last season. Both players are very inexperienced and would be a big question mark if forced into larger roles, as last season’s small snap totals were actually the highest of their careers for a single season. Leonard and Okereke are one of the better linebacker duos in the league, but the Colts’ depth is questionable.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Colts opted not to retain cornerback Xavier Rhodes this off-season, which was understandable, as he was going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he was mediocre in 13 starts. Rock Ya-Sin would have been an obvious candidate to take on a larger role in Rhodes’ absence, but he was sent to the Raiders in the Ngakoue trade, so the Colts had to give out a big contract in free agency to add a cornerback, giving Stephon Gilmore a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, in addition to having to pay significant money for Ngakoue himself. That is money that could have been spent on other parts of the roster.

Gilmore is also heading into his age 32 season, but he’s coming off of a much better season than Rhodes and has a much higher ceiling. Gilmore was probably the best cornerback in the NFL from 2018-2019, finishing 1st and 6th among cornerbacks on PFF in those two seasons respectively, winning a Super Bowl and a Defensive Player of the Year award with the Patriots, and he still showed a high level of ability last season, when he finished as PFF’s 14th ranked cornerback with the Panthers. However, he played just 304 snaps and, in total, injuries have cost him 14 of a possible 33 games over the past two seasons. Given his age and recent injury history, it’s likely his best days are behind him and he could easily decline further or miss more time with injury in 2022. He comes with a lot of upside, but significant downside as well.

Gilmore will be the Colts’ top outside cornerback, while Kenny Moore will remain their top slot cornerback. Moore had a down year by his standards in 2021, but still earned a slightly above average grade from PFF, his 4th straight season as a starter in which he’s earned an above average grade from PFF (56 starts in 59 games), with his best year coming when he finished as PFF’s 15th ranked cornerback, just two seasons ago in 2020. Not only a slot cornerback, Moore can also hold up outside, despite being just 5-9 190. Still only going into his age 27 season, Moore should remain an above average cornerback again in 2022, playing both outside in base packages and on the slot in sub packages.

Isaiah Rodgers will likely be the third cornerback, playing outside opposite Gilmore in sub packages when Moore moves to the slot. A 6th round pick in 2020, Rodgers has shown a lot of promise in 576 snaps in two seasons in the league and could easily have a solid season in a larger role in 2022. His primary competition will come from reserve backup Brandon Facyson, who has made just 13 starts in 4 seasons in the league and has never been more than a mediocre cornerback, including a 2021 season in which he finished 120th among 134 eligible cornerbacks on PFF on 602 snaps (9 starts) with the Raiders. The free agent acquisition is likely to remain a reserve and would likely struggle if forced into extended action.

Safety was a position of weakness for the Colts in 2021, as they had four safeties play at least 376 snaps, but none of them earned even an average grade from PFF. Khari Willis and Julian Blackmon were the Colts’ week one starters at the position, but they were limited to 11 games and 6 games respectively, with Blackmon suffering a torn Achilles in week 6, and neither were particularly effective, even when on the field.

Willis was PFF’s 36th ranked safety on 620 snaps in 2019 and the 17th ranked safety on 842 snaps in 2020 though, so the 2019 4th round pick has obvious bounce back potential, now in his 4th season in the league. Blackmon, meanwhile, was a middling player at best in 14 starts as a 3rd round rookie in 2020 and now his future is clouded by a serious injury, but he still has a good chance to remain the starter and, even coming off of an injury, he could have the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league.

The Colts added competition at the position this off-season by drafting Nick Cross in the 3rd round and signing veteran Rodney McLeod from the Eagles. Both would be best as backups though, as Cross could be overmatched in a big role in year one, while McLeod is a long-time starter (123 starts in nine seasons since 2013) who has mostly earned average or better grades from PFF, but who is now going into his age 32 season and who is coming off of his lowest graded season from PFF since 2013. The Colts have a good chance to be better at safety by default this season, while their cornerback group should benefit from Gilmore being an upgrade on Xavier Rhodes and a possible bounce back year from Kenny Moore.

Grade: B+

Special Teams

The Colts finished last season slightly above average with a 14th ranked special teams DVOA. Kicker Michael Badgely and punter Rigoberto Sanchez were both middling players and their kickoff and punt return teams were both mediocre, but they did have five core special teams players who all finished in the top-50 special teamers on PFF. George Odum and Matthew Adams are gone from that group, signing with the 49ers and Bears respectively this off-season, but EJ Speed, Ashton Dulin, and Zaire Franklin all remain, with Armani Watts being signed from the Chiefs to give them a 4th top-50 player from a year ago. On top of that, the Colts will get kicker Rodrigo Blakenship back from injury, which should be a slight upgrade. They’ll likely continue struggling in the return game, but this should still be a solid special teams unit overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Colts upgraded the quarterback position this off-season, which should help a team that almost made the post-season a year ago, but they also probably won’t get quite the same level of production from Jonathan Taylor, their receiving corps is still very questionable, and their offensive line is continuing to shed talent. Their offense should still be solid and their defense has a good chance to be a solid unit as well, but they don’t stack up with the other top teams in the AFC and, while they should be considered the favorites to win the AFC South, the weakest division in the AFC, they’re unlikely to go on a long playoff run once they get there and if they slip up in the division, it’s going to be tough for them to get a wild card spot. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: It’s concerning that top linebacker Darius Leonard is working back from a serious back injury that will cause him to miss the start of the season, but the Colts still benefit from playing in the easiest division in football, one the should win rather easily.

Prediction: 10-7, 1st in AFC South

Dallas Cowboys 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

The 2019 Cowboys ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency, and 5th in overall efficiency, but finished just 8-8 and out of the playoffs, in large part due to a 0-5 record in one score games, with their +113 point differential also being among the best in the league, ranking 6th. That suggested the Cowboys had a good chance to take a big step forward in 2020, as their record in close games would inevitably even out in the long-term (the 2018 Cowboys were 9-3 in one score games). However, the Cowboys’ 2020 season was completely derailed by injuries with their quarterback Dak Prescott (11 games missed) and their top-3 offensive linemen Tyron Smith (14 games), La’El Collins (16 games), and Zack Martin (6 games) all missing significant time, among others, leading to the Cowboys dropping to 6-10.

The 2021 Cowboys were healthier though and, perhaps not surprisingly, had a good season on both sides of the ball, ranking 8th in offensive efficiency, 15th in defensive efficiency, and 7th in overall efficiency, similar to their 2019 campaign, only this time their record in one-score games was 5-3 and their overall record improved to 12-5. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough for the Cowboys to avoid going out in the first round of the playoffs and things have only gotten worse for them since then, as they have lost arguably the most talent of any team in the league this off-season and did not have the cap flexibility to do much of anything to replace them.

Part of the reason for the Cowboys’ lack of cap flexibility is the 4-year, 160 million dollar deal they gave to franchise quarterback Dak Prescott last off-season. The Cowboys got creative with the structure of the deal and his 2022 cap hit of 19.73 million is manageable, but eventually all of that money will hit the cap, which is something the Cowboys had to be mindful of when making making moves this off-season, when they chose to trade wide receiver Amari Cooper for a late round pick (20 million dollar salary), to cut right tackle La’El Collins (10.7 million), and to not match contracts given to left guard Connor Williams (14.035 million over 2 years) and edge defender Randy Gregory (70 million over 5 years). All four of those players were above average starters last season and their absence will be noticeable on the field this season.

Prescott’s cap hit is set to jump to 49.13 million in 2023 and, while the Cowboys can push some of that forward by restructuring the contract, it’s going to get increasingly harder to keep Prescott’s cap number at a manageable number. That’s relevant because, since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 28 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. Prescott has played well throughout his 6-year career, finishing above average on PFF in every season, and he is coming off arguably the best season of his career, finishing 8th among quarterbacks on PFF in 2021, but he hasn’t quite shown himself to be the caliber of quarterback who could win a Super Bowl with a big cap hit number.

In total, Prescott has completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.64 YPA, 143 touchdowns, and 50 interceptions in 85 career starts, including 68.8% completion for 7.46 YPA, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions last season. The ankle injury that wiped out most of Prescott’s 2020 season seems to have limited his athleticism, as he had just 48 carries for 3.04 YPC last season, after averaging 5.07 YPC on 259 carries prior to the injury, but he’s only missed one other game with injury and his career and it’s possible some of his athleticism returns now another year removed from the injury, even if he doesn’t return to his old form as a runner.

The injury hasn’t affected him as a passer clearly, but, with his supporting cast starting to decline, Prescott will need to elevate his play to an elite level to compensate and to keep the Cowboys consistently competitive as key players leave around him. It remains to be seen if he can do that though and the smart money is on the Cowboys declining in 2022 compared to 2021. If he misses any time this season, Prescott would be again replaced by Cooper Rush, who made his first career start in place of Prescott last season when he missed a game with a shoulder injury.

Rush performed pretty well in that game, completing 24 of 40 for 325 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception in an upset victory, but he’s still a former undrafted free agent with one start in five seasons in the league, so he’s still very unproven and would almost certainly be a big downgrade from Prescott if he had to start for an extended period of time. Even if Prescott isn’t quite an elite quarterback this year, he should still be one of the better quarterbacks, so the Cowboys’ quarterback room is in a relatively enviable position from a talent standpoint.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

With the Cowboys lacking financial flexibility to replace the key players they lost this off-season, they mostly turned to the draft to fill holes and, with a pair of offensive line starters from a year ago no longer with the team, it’s not surprising the Cowboys opted to use their first round pick on an offensive lineman, taking Tulsa’s Tyler Smith 24th overall, their 4th selection of an offensive lineman in the first round in the past 12 drafts. Smith was penalty prone in college and, despite his physical tools, could take some time to adjust to the NFL game from the small school level, but the Cowboys need him to make an impact right away, as departed left guard Connor Williams was PFF’s 10th ranked guard last season, while departed right tackle La’El Collins was PFF’s 13th ranked offensive tackle.

Smith was a left tackle at the collegiate level, but is expected to begin his career at left guard, rather than right tackle, likely locking in Terence Steele as the starter at right tackle. An undrafted free agent in 2020, Steele has been the swing tackle for the Cowboys over the past two seasons, but they’ve had so many absences at tackle in that time that Steele has still made 27 starts over the past two seasons, despite technically being a reserve, with 6 of those starts coming on the left side and 21 coming on the right. Steele struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 89th out of 93 eligible on PFF, but he was a middling starter in year two and, while he probably doesn’t have a huge ceiling, he could easily remain a capable starter long-term.

The other option would be to play Smith at right tackle and start Connor McGovern at guard, where he has shown promise in 14 career starts since the Cowboys drafted him in the 3rd round in 2019, but it seems like the most likely option is Smith at left guard, Steele at right tackle, and McGovern beginning the season on the bench. It’s also possible McGovern could push for the starting center job, as incumbent Tyler Biadasz has been middling at best in 21 starts over the past two seasons, since the Cowboys drafted him in the 4th round in 2020. The Cowboys have seemed hesitant to move McGovern to center though, despite the fact that he played there in college, and it’s also possible that Biadasz could be better in his third season in the league, so the most likely outcome is McGovern being a reserve.

With the rest of the offensive line being unsettled, the Cowboys will need big seasons from their two best offensive linemen, long-time starters and perennial Pro Bowlers Zack Martin and Tyron Smith who, along with Tyler Smith and retired All-Pro center Travis Frederick, were the four offensive linemen the Cowboys have selected in the first round in recent drafts. Zack Martin and Tyron Smith have been great players for a long time, but they are both going into their age 32 season and both have become increasingly injury prone in recent years, so it’s no guarantee they continue playing at the same level.

Tyron Smith still finished the 2021 season as PFF’s 2nd ranked offensive tackle, his 5th season in the top-7 at his position over the past 9 years and 8th season in the top-15, but he missed 6 games, bringing his total missed games to 33 over the past 7 seasons, a stretch in which he has never played more than 13 games in a season. If he can stay on the field, he has a good chance to remain an above average starter, but I wouldn’t expect him to quite play at the level he played at last season. It’s possible the Cowboys drafted Tyler Smith to eventually replace Tyron Smith at left tackle, though the Cowboys have also taken Josh Ball in the 4th round in 2021 (zero rookie year snaps) and Matt Waletzko in the 5th round this year as developmental long-term options.

Martin, meanwhile, was PFF’s 1st ranked guard last season, his 8th straight season in the top-5 at the position, but he’s missed seven games over the past two seasons, after missing just two in the previous six seasons. He hasn’t shown as many signs of breaking down as Tyron Smith, but he will almost definitely begin to decline over the next few seasons. I wouldn’t expect either of them to drop off significantly in 2022 and both could still remain among the best players in the league at their positions, but they’re shakier options than they have been in recent years. It’s a concern for an offensive line that will struggle to replace a pair of key starters from a year ago, even with a first round pick being used on the unit.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Losing Amari Cooper will hurt for the Cowboys, but he’s not coming off of his best season, finishing 41st among wide receivers on PFF, averaging 1.65 yards per route run (down from his 1.85 career average), and posting a 68/865/8 slash line. On top of that, if there was one position where the Cowboys could afford to lose a player like Cooper it was wide receiver, with recent first round pick Ceedee Lamb looking like a long-term #1 receiver and Michael Gallup capable of being a solid #2 receiver at a cheaper price than Cooper, re-signing on a 5-year, 57.5 million dollar deal this off-season, with 23 million guaranteed over the first two seasons.

Like on the offensive line, the Cowboys used an early pick on a wide receiver to replace Amari Cooper, taking South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert in the 3rd round. He’ll compete with veteran free agent acquisition James Washington for the #3 wide receiver job behind Lamb and Gallup. Washington was a 2nd round pick by the Steelers in 2018 and was given plenty of opportunity in Pittsburgh, but his best slash line was a 44/735/3 in 2019 and he averaged just 1.14 yards per route run over his four seasons in Pittsburgh, including just 0.85 yards per route run in 2021, a season in which he finished as PFF’s 109th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible.

Washington may be the starter in three wide receiver sets early in the year, but the Cowboys are probably hoping Tolbert takes his job sooner rather than later. It’s also possible both Tolbert and Washington could have to play in three wide receiver sets at the beginning of the season because Gallup is coming off of a torn ACL suffered in early January, which means he’ll be just 8 months removed from the injury in week 1, making him a question mark for the start of the season.

Gallup also dealt with a calf injury earlier last season, and, between the two injuries, he was limited to just a 35/445/2 slash line in just 9 games total. Cedrick Wilson played well as an injury replacement last season, averaging 1.74 yards per route run and totaling a 45/602/6 slash line, despite opening the season as the #4 receiver, but he signed with the Dolphins this off-season and both Tolbert and Washington are unlikely to be as good as Wilson was last season, so the Cowboys will have to hope Gallup doesn’t miss too much time.

Despite his recent injuries, the Cowboys obviously still believe in Gallup, as evidenced by the fact that they gave him a big long-term contract. He’s taken on more of a complementary role over the past two seasons due to the addition of Ceedee Lamb, but he still had a 59/843/5 slash line in 2020 in Lamb’s first season in Dallas, despite not having his starting quarterback for most of the season, and he finished with a 66/1107/6 slash line in 14 games when he was the #2 receiver in 2019, with he and Amari Cooper being one of just five wide receiver duos in the league to both surpass 1000 yards that season.

Gallup also only missed two games in his first three seasons due to injury, prior to last year’s injury plagued season. A torn ACL clouds his future and he’s a one-year wonder in terms of being a 1000+ yard receiver, but the 2018 3rd round pick is still only going into his age 26 season and has the upside to be an above average wide receiver for years to come if he can put his recent injuries behind him. It might take him a year to return to form and he probably won’t play all 17 games this season, but he could still make a significant impact, especially in the second half of the season.

With Cooper gone, Ceedee Lamb is officially the #1 receiver on this offense and it’s impressive what he’s been able to do despite not being a true #1 receiver thus far in his career, as he posted a 74/935/5 slash line with 1.81 yards per route run as a rookie in 2020 on 111 targets (24th most in the NFL) and then posted a 79/1102/6 slash line with 2.06 yards per route run last season on 120 targets (24th most in the NFL again), finishing as PFF’s 10th ranked wide receiver for the 2021 season in the process. Still only going into his age 23 season, Lamb could easily take another step forward and has the potential for a massive statistical performance in his third year in the league.

Trading Cooper also allowed the Cowboys to keep tight end Dalton Schultz on the franchise tag, after his breakout 2021 campaign. Schultz finished last season with a 78/808/8 slash line and was PFF’s 7th ranked tight end overall, but the 2018 4th round pick is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at that level, posting a 63/615/4 slash line in his first season as the starter in 2020 and averaging a 1.08 yards per route run average in his first three seasons in the league, before that average jumped to 1.47 in 2021. The Cowboys were smart to make him prove it another time, set to pay him 10.931 million on the franchise tag for 2022, rather than keeping him on a big long-term extension. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him do it again though, if he’s permanently turned the corner as a player.

Depth is a bit of a concern at the tight end position though. Blake Jarwin was solid as the backup last season when he played, but he was limited to just eight games in 2021 and is expected to miss the entire 2022 season with injury. That leaves Sean McKeon, a 2020 undrafted free agent who has played 183 mediocre snaps in his career, Jeremy Sprinkle, a blocking specialist with 37 catches in 76 career games, and 4th round rookie Jake Ferguson to compete for the #2 tight end role. Whoever wins the job is unlikely to have much of an impact. This is still a talented receiving corps, though they’re not as good as a year ago and could have significant depth problems if Gallup misses an extended period of time to begin the season.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One player the Cowboys brought back this off-season was running back Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys wouldn’t have gotten any cap relief from letting him go this off-season, because of past restructures of his contract, so they really didn’t have a choice but to bring him back at a 14.12 million dollar price tag. They didn’t restructure his contract this off-season though, so they’ll be able to get some cap relief by moving on from him next off-season, ahead of 12.62 million owed in 2023. I would expect that to happen.

Elliott has been the Cowboys feature back since they drafted him 4th overall in 2016, with his career lows being just 237 carries and 979 yards in a season, but his efficiency has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons (4.12 YPC vs. 4.62 in his first four seasons in the league), as his salary has increased, while backup Tony Pollard has averaged a significantly higher YPC (5.08 YPC over the past three seasons on 317 total carries). Pollard runs in more favorable YPC average situations than Elliott, but he had a significantly better carry success rate (55% vs. 53%) and YPC over expected (+0.9 vs. -0.1) than Elliott last season, so he was the more effective runner any way you look at it. Pollard, a 4th round pick in 2019, is set to hit free agency next off-season and, barring an unexpected bounce back year from Elliott, the plan is likely to let go of Elliott to free up money to bring back Pollard as the long-term feature back.

Pollard has also been by far the more effective option as a receiver over the past three seasons, with Elliott averaging 0.82 yards per route run and 5.05 yards per target and Pollard averaging 1.42 yards per route run and 6.00 yards per target, though the Cowboys do still prefer Elliott’s pass protection to Pollard’s. Elliott still had 284 touches to Pollard’s 169 last season, but those numbers could be more even in 2022. Pollard looks like the clearly better option, but he’s a projection to a larger role, so it’s good to have Elliott around as well, at least for another season. This is a talented backfield overall.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

The Cowboys also lost edge defender Randy Gregory in free agency, after he finished as PFF’s 18th ranked edge defender overall in 2021, especially playing well as a pass rusher, with 6 sacks, 12 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate. Like at wide receiver and on the offensive line, the Cowboys turned to the draft for a replacement, using their 2nd round pick on Mississippi’s Sam Williams. They also took a flyer on veteran Dante Fowler, signing him to a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal.

Williams and Fowler will compete for roles with holdovers Dorance Armstrong (507 snaps), Tarell Basham (627 snaps), and Chauncey Golston (414 snaps). The Cowboys should also get a healthier season from expected starting defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, after he played just 271 snaps in seven games last season, and All-Pro caliber linebacker Micah Parsons lines up as an edge defender with regularity in sub packages.

I’ll get into Parsons more in the linebacker section, but his biggest impact last season was as an edge defender, with 13 sacks, 15 hits, and a ridiculous 21.8% pressure rate, while leading the league with a 38.7% pass rush win rate. He probably won’t be quite as good this season, just because no one is ever that good two years in a row, but it’s clear the 2021 12th overall pick is here to stay as an elite edge rusher for years to come.

Lawrence was also still a very effective player when on the field last season, totaling 3 sacks, 4 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate, while defending the run at a high level and earning PFF’s 3rd highest overall grade among edge defenders during the weeks he was active. That’s nothing new for Lawrence, who now has five straight seasons in the top-13 among edge defenders, dating back to 2017, a stretch in which he has 39.5 sacks, 48 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 71 games, while also excelling against the run.

Lawrence also didn’t miss a game from 2017-2020, before last year’s foot injury, so he’s not an overly injury prone player. The Cowboys still made him take a pay cut to stay on the roster, originally set to make 19 million non-guaranteed for his age 30 season in 2022, but his contract is for 40 million over 3 years with 30 million guaranteed, so they clearly still value him and he could easily have at least another couple above average seasons left in the tank, even if he does begin to decline. If they can get a healthier season out of him, the Cowboys should still have a strong edge rush with him and Parsons, even with Gregory gone.

When Parsons plays linebacker in base packages, Dorance Armstrong is probably the favorite to start opposite DeMarcus Lawrence, after being re-signed on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. A 4th round pick in 2018, Armstrong struggled throughout his first three seasons in his career, earning below average grades from PFF on an average of 301 snaps per season, but he earned an above average grade on 507 snaps in 2021.

Armstrong has always been a better run stopper than a pass rusher and his career pressure rate is just 8.3%, but he was better both against the run and as a pass rusher in 2021, with that pressure rate jumping to 11.0%, and the role the Cowboys are likely to play him in is primarily a base package run stopper role, so his pass rush ability isn’t as important as it would be if he was going to play in more sub packages. Armstrong could regress a little after the best season of his career, but he’s not a bad option for the role the Cowboys are going to play him in and, still only going into his age 25 season, it’s possible he has some untapped potential.

Fellow holdovers Chauncey Golston and Tarell Basham are coming off mediocre seasons and will not be guaranteed to have roles because, while they will miss Gregory’s high end pass rush ability, they are a deeper group overall this season. Golston is a 2021 3rd round pick with the upside to be better going forward though, while Basham is a veteran in his age 28 season who has had better years in the past, so both could have better seasons this year than they did a year ago.

Newcomers Sam Williams and Dante Fowler could also see rotational roles. Williams enters the league pretty raw, but he has a lot of potential as a pass rusher and could contribute in that role immediately. Fowler, meanwhile, has at least some bounce back potential, though he’s coming off of two straight down years with the Falcons, finishing 117th among 124 eligible edge defenders on PFF in 2020 and 103rd among 129 eligible edge defenders in 2021.

Fowler was never as good as the 11.5 sacks he had in 2019 suggested, as he had the benefit of playing on a great Rams defense and his peripheral pass rush stats were not as good as his sack total, but he still has a decent 10.4% pressure rate for his career, even with the past two seasons included, and he’s also still only in his age 28 season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him carve out a rotational role and to see him be effective in that role. The Cowboys will miss Randy Gregory, but they have a very talented edge rush duo in DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons and some intriguing depth options, so this is still a good position group overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was the Cowboys’ biggest weakness last season. They had six different players see at least 150 snaps, but none were better than middling on PFF, with several struggling mightily. The Cowboys didn’t make any additions to this group this off-season, aside from using a 5th round pick on Arkansas’ John Ridgeway, so they’re clearly expecting to get more this season out of a very young position group. The Cowboys should also get healthier seasons out of Neville Gallimore and Trysten Hill, who missed 12 games and 11 games respectively last season.

Hill was a 2nd round pick by the Cowboys in 2019 and has shown some upside, but he spent most of his rookie year as an inactive, playing just 121 snaps in 7 games, and then he tore his ACL midway through the 2020 season, limiting him to just 212 snaps in 5 games in 2020 and then just 171 snaps in 6 games in 2021, meaning he’s played just a total of 18 out of a possible 49 games, while playing just 504 total snaps in three seasons in the league.

Hill could be an effective rotational player for the Cowboys if healthy, but he’s a complete wild card at this point. Gallimore, meanwhile, is a 2020 3rd round pick who struggled on 416 snaps as a rookie, finishing 109th out of 139 eligible interior defenders on PFF, before struggling through 164 snaps in five games last season, only returning late in the season after missing most of the season with an elbow injury suffered in the pre-season.

With Hill and Gallimore missing significant time last season, a pair of rookies saw significant action, with 2021 3rd round pick Osa Odighizuwa leading the group with 614 snaps played. He struggled mightily though, finishing 113rd out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF, and 6th round rookie Quinton Bohanna was even worse, finishing dead last out of 146 eligible interior defenders across 222 snaps. Both could be better in year two and Odighizuwa in particular has a lot of upside and could benefit from playing a smaller role this season, but Bohanna has a long way to go to even be a useful rotational player and neither look like good starting options.

Carlos Watkins is the relative veteran of the bunch and played 437 snaps last season, but the Houston Texans 2017 4th round pick has never earned more than a middling grade from PFF for a season. He might have to play a significant role again out of necessity, but he’s an underwhelming option. Given the state of this position group, it’s possible the rookie Ridgeway sees action in year one, but he probably would be overmatched in a significant role. The Cowboys don’t have any true starting caliber interior defenders and will hope to get by with a heavy rotation of several different players, so this once again figures to be a position of weakness, even if they do have some upside as a result of their relative youth.

Grade: C

Linebackers

I mentioned Micah Parsons’ rookie year dominance as a pass rusher. He was much more ordinary in coverage and struggled against the run at times, but he still finished as by far PFF’s top ranked off ball linebacker in overall grade, including his pass rush grade, which was the best in the NFL regardless of position. As I said, he might not be quite as good again as a pass rusher in 2022, but he should still be one of the best edge rushers in the league for years to come and the other aspects of his game could develop further, making him a more complete player.

Parsons isn’t the only linebacker the Cowboys have used a first round pick on recently, taking Leighton Vander Esch 19th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Vander Esch also had a great rookie season, almost as great as Parsons’ rookie year, finishing as PFF’s 5th ranked off ball linebacker on 785 snaps, while playing all 16 games, but injuries limited Vander Esch to just 19 total games between 2019 and 2020 and he was middling at best even when on the field.

Vander Esch did play every game in 2021 though and, while he wasn’t quite as good as his rookie year, he still finished as PFF’s 30th ranked off ball linebacker on 661 snaps. Given that, it’s surprising that he had to settle for a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, but teams are very cautious of his injury history, with his neck problems dating back to his collegiate days. He could easily miss more time in 2022, but he could just as easily have another above average season, possibly even better than last season, as a first round talent who is still only in his age 25 season.

The Cowboys didn’t retain Keanu Neal this off-season and he was PFF’s 86th ranked off ball linebacker out of 94 eligible last season, so he could be addition by subtraction, but he played 579 snaps even with Vander Esch healthy last season and the Cowboys don’t have any proven depth options to replace him. Instead, they will likely rely on 2021 4th round pick Jabril Cox as their third linebacker. He has the upside to be a useful player, but he also only played 9 snaps as a rookie, so he is a mystery as an NFL player. The Cowboys also added more young linebacker depth in this year’s draft, taking Damone Clark in the 5th round and Devin Harper in the 6th round, but it’s likely they’d struggle if forced into a significant role in year one. Depth is a concern for the Cowboys at the linebacker position, but they’re in good shape with their top two.

Grade: A-

Secondary

Trevon Diggs is the other young Cowboys player who captured the attention of NFL fans, leading the league with 11 interceptions, the most interceptions in the NFL since Everson Walls in 1981. Diggs was the ultimate boom or bust player though, leading the league with 1,016 receiving yards allowed, the most yards allowed by a cornerback since the 2016 season. PFF gave Diggs a middling grade for 2021 and, while I think that underestimates the value of his interceptions, it’s clear that his interception total doesn’t tell the whole story, when you take into account how many yards and big plays he allows.

Diggs also gave up a lot of yards as a rookie in 2020, as the 2nd round pick allowed the 21st most yards in the league (650), despite playing just 68.4% of his teams snaps. Only one player played fewer snaps than him and allowed more yards and, on top of that, Diggs only managed to pick off three passes, earning another middling grade in the process. He’s only going into his age 25 season and should remain a ball hawk, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his interception total got cut in half, given the volatility of interception stats and his yardage allowed will likely remain among the most in the league either way.

Fellow starting cornerbacks Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis also received middling grades from PFF last season. Lewis was PFF’s 116th ranked cornerback out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF in 2020, but that was mostly because he was a poor fit for their defensive scheme that season and, prior to 2020, he started his career with three straight seasons of above average grades on PFF, including a career best 41st ranked finish in 2019. Brown, on the other hand, has never been more than a middling starter, but he’s experienced, with 57 starts in 82 games in six seasons in the league, and he is still relatively young, in his age 29 season.

All three of the Cowboys’ top-3 cornerbacks played 16 of 17 games last season, so there wasn’t much need for depth behind them, but the Cowboys have good alternatives if injuries strike, as they have 2021 2nd round pick Kelvin Joseph and 2021 3rd round pick Nahshon Wright waiting in the wings. Joseph showed a lot of promise on 165 rookie year snaps and could push to start at some point in year two and, while Wright struggled on his 92 snaps, he still has the upside to develop into a contributor long-term. It’s a deep position group.

At safety, the Cowboys brought back Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker on deals worth 10 million over 2 years and 7 million over 2 years respectively and they will compete with fellow holdover Donovan Wilson for the two starting safety jobs. Kearse was a starter for most of 2021, starting every game from week 1 to week 17, and he finished as PFF’s 14th ranked safety on the season. He had just 12 career starts in five seasons in the league prior to last season and had never surpassed 503 snaps played in a season, so he’s a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average season long starter, but he always flashed potential as a reserve, so it wasn’t too surprising that he broke out in a larger role and he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, even if he isn’t as good as he was a year ago. Kearse should be considered a heavy favorite to keep his job.

Hooker, on the other hand, only played 445 snaps in a rotational role last season, but he’s been an above average starter before and, only going into his age 26 season, he has the potential to bounce back and be an above average starter once again, now another year removed from the torn achilles that ended his 2020 season after just two games. Durability has always been a concern for Hooker, who has missed 30 games in five seasons in the league since being drafted in the first round in 2017 by the Colts, but early in his career he showed some of why he was drafted highly, earning average or better grades from PFF in all three seasons, including a career best 18th ranked finish in 2018. He’s never played more than 15 games in a season and he’ll almost definitely miss some time at some point this season, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he won the starting job and bounced back to being at least a solid starter.

That likely leaves Wilson as the third safety, but he’ll have a fair shot at a starting job, with neither Hooker nor Kearse signed to a big contract, and, given Hooker’s durability concerns, there is a good chance Wilson ends up making some starts this season one way or another. Selected in the 6th round in 2019, Wilson finished above average on PFF in the first significant action of his career in 2020, playing 673 snaps total, but he saw that role scaled back to 338 snaps in 2021 and, when on the field, his play was also more middling than it was the prior year. He’s not a bad third safety though and should be able to provide a reliable option as a short-term replacement if needed. Trevon Diggs isn’t as effective of a cover cornerback as his interception total suggests, but this is not a bad unit and they have good depth overall.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Cowboys also had a good special teams unit last season, ranking 6th in the league in special teams DVOA. They lost one of their best core special teamers Corey Clement this off-season, but talented punter Bryan Anger remains, Tony Pollard and Ceedee Lamb remain locked in as the primary kickoff and punt returner respectively, after averaging 28.8 yards per kickoff return and 9.9 yards per punt return respectively last season, and their one weak spot last season, kicker Greg Zuerlein, is no longer with the team, replaced with undrafted rookie Jonathan Garibay, who has a good chance to be an upgrade even as a rookie, making 85.2% of his collegiate kicks, including 15 of 16 with a long of 62 yards in 2021. They might not be quite as good on special teams in 2022, but they should at least remain an above average unit.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Cowboys were one of the better teams in the league last season, finishing 12-5 with the 7th highest efficiency rating in the league, but they suffered significant losses on both sides of the ball this off-season and figure to be a noticeably worse team as a result. They should still compete for a playoff spot in the weaker NFC, but their division rival Eagles got significantly better this off-season and now look like the favorites for the division, which would leave the Cowboys fighting for a wild card spot. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Cowboys suffered a big loss when left tackle Tyron Smith suffered an injury that will cost him most of the season, but they face one of the easiest schedules among NFC contenders and could still qualify for a wild card spot even without Smith.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC East

Cincinnati Bengals 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Quarterback

The Bengals went all the way to the Super Bowl last season, coming within one score of victory, in a run that was surprising in more ways than one. For starters, it was surprising to see the Bengals even make the playoffs, given the 4th worst playoff odds to do so in the NFL by sportsbooks before the season, behind the Texans, Lions, and Jets. Then once the Bengals got to the post-season, few expected them to make it all the way to the Super Bowl, coming off of a solid, but unspectacular 10-7 regular season. The Bengals’ efficiency in the regular season didn’t suggest they were about to go on a long playoff run either, as they finished 17th in mixed efficiency.

On top of that, the Bengals weren’t overly efficient during their playoff run either, which makes it even more surprising. In their three wins, which came by a combined 13 points, the Bengals didn’t win the yards per play battle or the first down rate battle once. The primary reason they won those close games is because they won the turnover battle by a combined +5 across those three games. The Bengals also won the turnover battle by two in the Super Bowl, to make that game closer than it could have been, bringing their overall post-season turnover margin to +7.

Turnover margin is highly inconsistent week-to-week and year-to-year, however, especially compared to efficiency metrics. Case in point, the Bengals had an even turnover margin in the regular season last year, showing no real propensity for forcing or avoiding turnovers until the post-season. Their post-season turnover success is unlikely to continue into 2022, so the Bengals will have to become a more efficient team on both sides of the ball (15th ranked offensive efficiency, 21st ranked defensive efficiency) if they want to have a chance to make it back to the Super Bowl, especially with the AFC becoming even more loaded this off-season.

The biggest reason for more optimism that the Bengals will be more efficient at least on offense this season is the improvements they’ve made on their offensive line to better protect franchise quarterback Joe Burrow. I’ll get into the specific additions later, but the Bengals took full advantage of having their franchise quarterback on a cheap rookie deal and used their financial flexibility to address by far their biggest need from a year ago. Burrow was sacked a league-leading 51 times last season, with the Bengals allowing the 3rd most sacks in the league, and, in addition risking injury to their most important player, having that many negative plays really has a big impact on an offense’s overall efficiency.

That high sack total also came despite the fact that Burrow had the 4th highest percentage of passes thrown in less than 2.5 seconds last season. Burrow was effective on both quicker throws and longer developing plays, completing 70.4% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in the regular season, while finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked quarterback, but he was especially effective on longer developing plays, not surprising due to his arm strength and his talented receiving corps.

On passes thrown after more than 2.5 seconds last season, Burrow saw his yards per attempt average jump from 7.98 to 10.29 and his quarterback rating jump from 106.1 to 112.6. In fact, that YPA and QB rating led all quarterbacks in the league on throws after 2.5 seconds, with that QB rating being more than eight points higher than any other quarterback in the league on those types of throws. Better offensive line play should allow the Bengals to call more longer developing plays, which should result in more plays down the field.

Burrow is still a year one wonder in terms of being the elite quarterback he was last season, but the 2020 1st overall pick came into the league with a massive upside and he had a solid rookie season as well before a torn ACL ended his season, ranking as PFF’s 19th ranked quarterback. He could easily be one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come and, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, his supporting cast should be better, thanks to improvements on the offensive line.

Burrow will be backed up by Brandon Allen for the second straight season, after the veteran journeyman won the backup job by outplaying Ryan Finley in Burrow’s absence in 2020. Allen still struggled for a lot of his stint as Burrow’s replacement though, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 6.51 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, good for a QB rating of just 82.0, and his career QB rating of 77.5 is even worse. The Bengals would obviously see a major drop off if Allen had to play for a significant period of time.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

To improve their offensive line, the Bengals made a trio of additions, signing Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La’El Collins to reasonable contracts worth 18 million over 3 years, 35 million over 4 years, and 21 million over 3 years respectively. None are elite players at their positions, but they all should be upgrades on the players they’re replacing. Karras is coming off the best season of his career in 2021, when he played almost exclusively at guard and finished 18th among guards on PFF, but he’s expected to move back to center with the Bengals in 2022. He might not be as good back at center, but he still was a capable starter across 31 starts at center from 2019-2020, so he should easily be an upgrade on Trey Hopkins, who finished last season ranked 37th among 41 centers on PFF and was not retained as a free agent this off-season.

La’El Collins will take over at right tackle, where Riley Reiff was a solid starter across 12 starts last season, but then went down for the season with injury and was replaced by Isaiah Prince, a 2020 7th round pick, who struggled the rest of the way in the first significant experience of his career, including the Bengals’ playoff run. Reiff was not retained ahead of his age 34 season this off-season and Collins gives them a younger, more talented option.

Collins missed all of 2020 with injury and served a 5-game suspension last season, which were big factors in the Cowboys releasing him this off-season, ahead of a non-guaranteed 10.7 million dollar salary, but he made 47 of 48 starts from 2017-2019 and he’s played at a high level when on the field recently, finishing 4th and 13th respectively among offensive tackles on PFF in his last two healthy seasons in 2019 and 2021 respectively. Still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season, Collins should continue to play at a high level in 2022 and doesn’t have an overly concerning injury history.

The only player who might not be an upgrade is Alex Cappa. Cappa will take over at right guard, which was a position of weakness last season, and he’s in the prime of his career, in his age 27 season, coming off three straight seasons as an above average starter in Tampa Bay (46 starts), including a 19th ranked season among guards on PFF in 2020 and a 15th ranked season in 2021. However, Cappa will effectively be replacing left guard Quinton Spain, who was PFF’s 16th ranked guard last season, across 16 starts, before not being retained as a free agent this off-season, ahead of his age 31 season. Cappa will be a solid starter and is a younger long-term option, but might not be noticeably better than Spain was last season.

Hakeem Adeniji and Jackson Carman were the starters who struggled at right guard last season and they’ll have to move to left guard this season to earn their way into their starting lineup. Carman already moved there towards the end of last season and the 2021 2nd round pick should be considered the favorite for the starting job by virtue of his draft status and his slightly better play last season, finishing 64th among 90 eligible guards on PFF, while Adeniji, a 2020 6th round pick, finished 84th and didn’t play much better on 233 rookie year snaps in 2020 either. Carman needs to take a step forward to be even an average starter, but he has the upside to do so. If he can, the Bengals would be without a clear weak spot on the offensive line, a huge change from last season.

Left tackle Jonah Williams was the Bengals’ best offensive lineman last season and could easily be their best again this season. A first round pick in 2019, Williams missed his entire rookie season with injury, but he finished 43rd among offensive tackles in 10 starts in 2020 and 24th among offensive tackles in 16 starts in 2021. Only going into his age 25 season, his best play could still be ahead of him. The Bengals made the obvious decision to pick up his 5th year option this off-season, guaranteeing him 12.604 million for 2023. The Bengals will almost definitely try to extend him long-term sometime in the next year and he should end up with a top of market deal whenever he ultimately signs. Depth is a concern on this offensive line, without any proven backups, but this starting five should be an above average group as long as they’re healthy, which would be a drastic change from last season.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

I mentioned earlier than the Bengals have a talented receiving corps, but that might be underselling it, as they have arguably the top receiving corps in the league and a trio of wide receivers who would all be #1 wide receivers for many teams across the league. JaMarr Chase led the way, as the 2021 5th overall pick had one of the best rookie seasons ever by a wide receiver, transitioning seamlessly from dominating the SEC as Joe Burrow #1 receiver at LSU to dominating the NFL as Joe Burrow’s #1 receiver with the Bengals.

Chase finished with a 81/1455/13 slash line and was the NFL’s 4th leading receiver last season, despite his 128 targets ranking just 19th in the NFL. Chase benefitted from having Burrow throwing him the ball and having a lot of talent around him on offense, but he also finished as PFF’s 11th ranked wide receiver in his own right and was especially dangerous after the catch, ranking 5th among wide receivers with 8.1 yards per catch coming after the catch. He should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come, still only going into his age 22 season.

Tee Higgins also surpassed 1000 yards last season, totaling with a 74/1091/7 slash line in just 14 games, while finishing as PFF’s 8th ranked wide receiver. That came after the 2020 2nd round pick posted a 67/908/7 slash line, despite inconsistent quarterback play, as a rookie, when he also finished as PFF’s 35th ranked wide receiver. Still only going into his age 23 season, Higgins’ best years could still be ahead of him and he’d be a #1 wide receiver for at least half of the league, if not more. Higgins and Chase have a good chance to both surpass 1000 yards again next season and for years to come, something only two other wide receiver duos in the league did last season (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams).

Tyler Boyd has a pair of 1000-yard receiving seasons on his resume, but he’s only the third wide receiver on this season behind Chase and Higgins. Despite that, he still finished last season with a 67/828/5 slash line, his 4th straight season surpassing 800 receiving yards. It was also his 4th straight season finishing in the 60th percentile or higher among wide receivers on PFF. He doesn’t quite have the top end athleticism and ability of Higgins and Chase, but he’s still a very reliable possession receiver who excels in the slot and who would be many teams’ top wide receiver if he was elsewhere. Still only going into his age 29 season with just four games missed over the past four seasons, I don’t see any reason to expect a drop off this season.

With the three wide receivers that they have, the Bengals understandably don’t have much use for the tight end position in this offense, but CJ Uzomah was not a bad 4th option last season (49/493/5 on 63 targets) and, while he signed with the Jets in free agency, the Bengals replaced him with a comparable player in Hayden Hurst. Hurst is an unspectacular player who has not been an above average pass catcher or run blocker in his career, but his 1.21 yards per route run average for his career is higher than the 1.07 yards per route run that Uzomah averaged last season and Hurst obviously won’t be relied on for a big role in this offense, likely serving mostly as a check down option if nothing develops downfield.

Backup tight end Drew Sample will see a significant role, likely to see around the 458 snaps in 17 games he had last season. Sample was a surprise 2nd round pick in 2019 because of his lack of receiving production in college and he hasn’t proven to have untapped receiving ability at the next level, averaging a pitiful 0.82 yards per route run throughout his career, but he’s at least a solid blocker, which is mostly what he’ll be used for. He caught just 11 passes in the regular season last season and could easily fail to exceed that total in 2022.

The Bengals likely won’t use a lot of two tight end sets, given the wide receiver talent they have, but they do have a bit of a concerning depth situation behind their top-3 wide receivers. While they didn’t need depth last season because Boyd, Higgins, and Chase missed a combined four games, they did have a reliable 4th option in Auden Tate if they needed him and he’s no longer with the team, leaving them without a reliable 4th option. If one of their top-3 wide receivers suffers an injury, this offense will feel the effect in a noticeable way. At full strength though, it’s hard to find a team with better passing game weapons.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Featured running back Joe Mixon also is involved in the passing game, taking 48 targets for 42 catches, 314 yards, and two touchdowns last season, in addition to ranking 3rd in the NFL with 292 carries. Mixon has played a similar role for the Bengals over the past four seasons, averaging 285 carries and 43 catches per 16 games over that stretch, and, while he is not an elite running back, he has fared pretty well with his heavy workload, averaging 4.25 yards per carry and 1.11 yards per route run over those four seasons, while finishing in the top-16 among running backs in three of those seasons. The 2017 2nd round pick is still only in his age 26 season and should remain an above average starter for at least another couple seasons.

Running backs are more susceptible to injury than any position though and, while Mixon has mostly been durable, he did miss 10 games in 2020. If that happened again in 2022, the Bengals would be in a lot of trouble, as backup Samaje Perine is an underwhelming replacement option. He has averaged 4.64 yards per carry over the past two seasons, but he has done so on carry totals of 63 and 55 and he averaged 3.45 YPC in the one season in his career in which he saw significant action, carrying the ball 175 times as a rookie in 2017.

The Bengals like to use Perine to give Mixon a rest in obvious passing situations, but he is underwhelming in that role as well, averaging 1.00 yards per route run and 6.09 yards per target over the past two seasons. The Bengals also have 2021 6th round pick Chris Evans and 2019 6th round pick Trayveon Williams, but they are both very inexperienced, with career carry totals of 17 and 41 respectively, so they are unlikely to make much of an impact, even if they do make the final roster. This remains Joe Mixon’s backfield and he should be one of the better running backs in the league again.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Bengals will have a lot of continuity on defense this season, returning 14 of their 15 defenders who played at least 250 snaps last season. Their one loss could actually prove to be addition by subtraction, as Larry Ogunjobi finished 103rd among 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF across his 724 snaps last season. The Bengals drafted Florida’s Zachary Carter in the third round and he will likely have a rotational role as a rookie, but BJ Hill will be the one to take Ogunjobi’s place in the starting lineup, which should be a good thing for this defense, as he was significantly better than Ogunjobi last season, despite his more limited snap count at 502.

Hill was PFF’s 28th ranked interior defender in 2021 and actually earned above average grades from PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league prior to last season as well. Despite that, he fell out of favor with the Giants, seeing his snap count drop from 642 to 486 to 375 across his three seasons there before they traded him to the Bengals for reserve offensive lineman Billy Price last off-season, a move that proved to be a steal for the Bengals. Cincinnati kept him on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal this off-season and he should prove to be an above average starter now that he gets a chance to see more every down starter, in his age 27 season. Also good against the run, Hill also has 13 sacks, 13 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate in 64 career games, despite a relatively limited role.

DJ Reader will start opposite Hill and he was one of the biggest reasons for the Bengals’ surprising performance on defense last season, returning to action after being limited to 259 snaps in five games by injury in 2020 to finish as PFF’s 8th ranked interior defender on 590 snaps in 2021. Reader also finished 7th among interior defenders on PFF in 2019, as well as top-35 finishes in 2017 and 2018, and he’s never had much of an injury history outside of 2020, playing at least 14 games in 5 of 6 seasons in the league. A dominant run stuffer at 6-3 347, Reader is also a surprisingly efficient pass rusher for a big interior defender, with a career 7.7% pressure rate, albeit with just 8.5 actual sacks (25 quarterback hits) in 81 games. Still only going into his age 28 season, there is no reason to expect a drop off from Reader in 2022.

Josh Tupou also returns as a reserve, after playing 410 snaps last season, and he should have a similar role this season. Tupou has been a solid run stuffer as a rotational player in the past, but he struggled in that aspect in 2021 and has never provided much pass rush, with a 4.9% pressure rate for his career. Tupou also sat out the 2020 season, so his last solid rotational season came in 2019 when he played 465 snaps, which is a career high for him. He could bounce back and be a solid run stuffer, but that’s not a guarantee and even that isn’t much of an upside, even for a reserve. He could be pushed for playing time by both Zachary Carter and 2021 4th round pick Tyler Shelvin, who struggled across 49 rookie year snaps. Depth is a concern at the interior defender position for the Bengals, but DJ Reader is a well above average starter and Hill should be a solid starter as well.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Not much changes for the Bengals at the edge defender position this season, though they figure to get at least some contribution from 2021 3rd round pick Joseph Ossai, who missed his whole rookie season with injury. How much contribution they get remains to be seen, but they have the opportunity for him to carve out a significant reserve role, as top reserves Cameron Sample and Wyatt Ray struggled across 310 snaps and 219 snaps respectively.

Sample was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has the upside to be better in 2022, while Ray is a 2019 undrafted free agent who had played 72 snaps prior to last season. Ossai and Sample figure to be higher on the depth chart this season than Ray, who is not a lock to make the final roster and who will likely never develop into a useful rotational player. The Bengals also have 2020 5th round pick Khalil Kareem, who has shown a little bit of promise thus far in his career, albeit across just 369 career snaps in two seasons in the league.

Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard will remain the starters. Hendrickson is one of a few great free agent signings the Bengals have made on defense over the past few off-seasons, including DJ Reader. Hendrickson is only the league’s 19th highest paid edge defender on a 4-year, 60 million dollar deal, but he finished his first season in Cincinnati as PFF’s 11th ranked edge defender in terms of pass rush grade, while totaling 14 sacks (5th in the NFL), 15 quarterback hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate.

Hendrickson was somewhat of a risky signing because he was a one-year wonder, with 13.5 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in his contract year in 2020, after the 2017 3rd round pick totaled just 6.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate across the first three seasons of his career combined, but Hendrickson has proven to be a late bloomer and, still only going into his age 28 season, he should continue being one of the better edge rushers in the league. His run defense has always left something to be desired, but he has still finished in the top-29 among edge defenders in overall grade on PFF in back-to-back seasons.

Hubbard, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick by the Bengals in 2018. He isn’t nearly as good as Hendrickson, but he has consistently earned middling grades from PFF across his first four seasons in the league, so he’s a consistent player who you could do worse than. He had 7.5 sacks last season, though that was largely on volume, as he finished 6th among edge defenders with 877 snaps played and had an underwhelming 10.3% pressure rate overall. A better run stopper than pass rusher, Hubbard’s pressure rate last season is mostly in line with his career average of 10.0%.

Hubbard is still only going into his age 26 season, but I wouldn’t expect much more than he’s shown so far, even if he does happen to have the best season of his career. He would likely benefit from playing a smaller role, but the Bengals will need one of their young reserve edge defenders to step up for that to happen. Trey Hendrickson elevates this position group significantly by himself, but they otherwise are an underwhelming bunch.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Not much changes in the linebacking corps for the Bengals either, although that’s not really a good thing, as this was an underwhelming group a year ago. Top linebacker Logan Wilson earned a middling grade from PFF across 707 snaps, but their second linebacker Germaine Pratt struggled across 692 snaps, finishing 69th among 94 eligible linebackers on PFF. Wilson and Pratt are about recent third round picks, Wilson being drafted in 2020 and Pratt being drafted in 2019. Wilson also was a middling player across 343 rookie year snaps and should continue being at least a capable starter going forward, but Pratt has mostly struggled throughout his career.

Pratt could be pushed for his job by Akeem Davis-Gaither and Markus Bailey, also recent draft picks (4th and 7th round respectively in 2020), who both flashed in limited action last season, across 207 snaps and 256 snaps respectively. Both are very unproven though, as Markus Bailey played just 44 rookie year snaps prior to last season, while Davis-Gaither struggled on his 314 rookie year snaps in 2020. With no off-season additions made to this group, they should be very similar to last season’s underwhelming group, barring one of their young linebackers taking a big step forward.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Bengals’ biggest weakness on defense last season was probably cornerback Eli Apple, who received a below average grade from PFF across 15 regular season starts, before ultimately surrendering the game winning touchdown in the Super Bowl to Cooper Kupp. Apple isn’t as bad as internet memes might suggest and it’s not all that surprising that the Bengals brought him back as a free agent this off-season, but he’s never earned more than a middling grade from PFF across 6 seasons in the league (63 starts) and the Bengals needed to at least add competition for him, which they did when they used their second round pick on Nebraska cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. Apple is probably the favorite to open the season as the starter, but Taylor-Britt will likely be starting sooner rather than later and, while he could struggle in his first NFL action, he also possesses an upside that Apple does not.

Whoever wins the battle between Apple and Taylor-Britt will start opposite Chidobe Awuzie, another one of the Bengals’ great free agent signings from recent off-seasons. A 2nd round pick by the Cowboys in 2017, Awuzie showed promise early in his career, including a 27th ranked season among cornerbacks on PFF as a 16-game starter in 2019, but he saw his play drop off significantly on the Cowboys’ miserable 2020 defense, led by overmatched defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, resulting in Awuzie finishing 101st among 136 eligible cornerbacks in PFF, right before he was about to hit free agency.

Given the circumstances, Awuzie would have been wise from a financial standpoint to take a one-year deal somewhere last off-season, with the intention of trying free agency again this off-season after rehabbing his value. Instead, Awuzie signed a 3-year deal with the Bengals worth up to only 21.75 million total, which proved to be a huge steal for the Bengals. Out of Nolan’s system, Awuzie put it all together in 2021 and had the best season of his career, finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked cornerback on the season.

Given how well he played and that he is still only going into his age 27 season, Awuzie likely would have commanded at least 30 million guaranteed over the first two years of a new contract as a free agent this off-season, but, instead, the Bengals have him locked in for the next two years at just 12.5 million total. He might not repeat the best season of his career again in 2022, but he’s very much in the prime of his career and should have another high level season this year.

The Bengals also got a good value with ex-Steelers cornerback Mike Hilton last off-season, signing him to a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal to be their slot cornerback. Hilton consistently earned above average grades throughout his four seasons in Pittsburgh, not only covering at an above average level, but also providing value as a run stopper and a blitzer, so it was surprising he didn’t have more of a market, but his lack of size and ability to play outside at 5-9 185 probably had something to do with it. With the Bengals, he played 84.2% of his 803 snaps on the slot and yet again finished above average on PFF, ranking 23rd among cornerbacks at season’s end. He should continue that into 2022 and beyond, still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season.

In addition to the selection of Taylor-Britt in the second round, the Bengals also used a 2022 first round pick on the secondary, taking Michigan’s Daxton Hill. While their selection of a cornerback early was not surprising, the selection of a safety was because safety was not a weakness for the Bengals last season. However, starting safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell are both not signed long-term, with Bates being franchise tagged ahead of free agency this off-season and Bell going into the final year of his contract, and the Bengals must not be confident in their ability to sign them both long-term.

A 2nd round pick in 2018, Bates likely wants to be paid at the top of the safety market, currently at least 17.5 million annually, and, while he has shown top level ability in 2018 and 2020, finishing 12th and 1st respectively among safeties on PFF in those two seasons, he has also earned middling grades from PFF in both 2019 and 2021, so his lack of consistency is probably giving the Bengals some pause on paying him what he wants. He’s an incredible coverage safety at his best, but he’s also missed among the most tackles by any safety in the league over the past four seasons combined, with 65 total. He has obvious bounce back potential, which would be a huge boost for this defense, but he’s been very inconsistent in the past.

Vonn Bell, meanwhile, has proven to be a steal on the 3-year, 18 million dollar deal the Bengals gave him two off-seasons ago and he will be due a big raise on his next contract. A 2nd round pick by the Saints in 2016, Bell was mostly a middling starter in New Orleans, but he did finish 26th among safeties on PFF in 2018 and he’s shown that form more consistently in Cincinnati, ranking 20th and 21st among safeties on PFF in his two seasons with the team. He should continue his above average play into 2022.

Unless either Bates or Bell are traded, which is a possibility given their contract situations, Hill will likely start the season as a reserve, but he could see some action on the slot as a 4th cornerback and the Bengals could use more three safety looks this season to try to mask some of their lack of linebacker depth and, ultimately, he figures to be a starter on this defense long-term one way or another. This is a more talented group than a year ago after the Bengals used their first two draft picks on defensive backs and, while Chidobe Awuzie might not play as well as a year ago, any regression from him could easily be offset by a bounce back season from Jessie Bates, so this is a strong group overall.

Grade: B+

Special Teams

The Bengals finished last season 8th in special teams DVOA, in large part due to the high level of play of rookie kicker Evan McPherson. The Bengals were underwhelming aside from McPherson though, with punter Kevin Huber being middling at best, below average punt and kick return units, and just one player (Mitchell Wilcox) who finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF last season. The Bengals kept pretty much everything the same this season, so they’ll need McPherson to have another high level year for this to remain an above average unit. McPherson could be one of the best kickers in the league for years to come, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he struggled a little bit more in year two than he did as a rookie and, if that’s the case, this would be more of a middling special teams unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bengals finished last regular season ranked 17th in efficiency and needed a +7 turnover margin in their four playoff games to come as close to the Super Bowl as they did, something they showed no propensity for in the regular season (+0 turnover margin) and something they won’t be able to rely on going forward into 2022. For that reason, the Bengals needed to get better this off-season if they were going to have a chance to make it back to the Super Bowl, but they did a great job of addressing their needs this off-season, especially on the offensive line, turning a big position of weakness into a strength.

In fact, on paper, the Bengals look like one of the best teams in the league and one of the top Super Bowl contenders. The Bengals have a good chance to win the AFC North and, while the AFC is loaded with other contenders and it’s very tough for Super Bowl losers to return the following season (just one has done so in the past 25 seasons), those are really the biggest things standing in the Bengals’ way, as they have the talent to make it back. Whether or not they do remains to be seen, but they have as good of a shot as anyone. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: I consider the Bengals Super Bowl contenders, but they’ll have a tough path out of the loaded AFC and might not even be the best team in their division, with the Ravens expected to be much healthier this season. They should still qualify for a post-season berth, but like any AFC contender, they will have a tough path out of the conference and there are teams with a better chance than them.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC North

Arizona Cardinals 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Quarterback

The Cardinals were the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team last season, starting the year 7-0 and, even after dropping a couple games, they still remained in the NFC’s #1 overall seed at 10-2, with just five games left in the season. However, the Cardinals lost four of those last five regular season games to not only fall out of the #1 seed, but to fall out of the division lead as well, forcing them to go on the road in the first round of the playoffs, where they were embarrassed by their divisional rival Los Angeles Rams.

In some ways, the Cardinals’ collapse was predictable, as they were very reliant on the turnover margin early in the season, with a +12 turnover margin through 12 games. Turnover margins tend to be very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis and the Cardinals’ efficiency ratings, which are more predictive, did not show them to be as good as their record through 12 games, as they ranked 9th, 14th, 12th, and 8th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and overall efficiency. In the Cardinals’ final five games, they were even in the turnover margin, which made it much tougher for them to win games.

Their failure to continue to dominate the turnover margin was not their only problem though, as they badly missed top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who missed 7 of the Cardinals’ final 9 regular season games, including their final 4 games, as well as their playoff loss, top defensive lineman JJ Watt, who missed the final 10 games of the regular season before returning to be a shell of himself in the playoff loss, and top cornerback Robert Alford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and the playoff loss. As a result, the Cardinals fell to 13th, 19th, 20th, and 15th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and overall efficiency by season’s end.

That doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals’ chances of bouncing back in 2022. Hopkins is suspended for the first six games of the season, JJ Watt heads into his age 33 season with a big history of major injuries, and the oft-injured Robert Alford was not retained for his age 34 season this off-season. On top of that, the Cardinals lost Christian Kirk, their top receiver in Hopkins’ absence, Chandler Jones, their top edge defender, Jordan Hicks, their top off ball linebacker, and Chase Edmonds, their most efficient running back this off-season, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade.

Quarterback Kyler Murray will have his work cut out for him if he wants to get the Cardinals back to the post-season. The 2019 #1 overall pick, Murray has taken a step forward in all three seasons in the league, going from 29th among quarterbacks on PFF as a rookie to 12th in 2020 and then 7th last season, emerging as one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in the league. In total, Murray completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.87 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions last season, while rushing for 423 yards on 88 carries (4.81 YPC) with 5 touchdowns.

Murray is still only going into his age 25 season and may still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he’s likely to remain one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. The Cardinals will have to make a decision on his contract long-term at some point in the next calendar year or so, with Murray set to see his salary jump to 29.703 million in the final year of his rookie deal after this season, and Murray spent some of the off-season pressuring for a big deal from the Cardinals sooner rather than later, with this being the first off-season he is eligible for a new contract.

Murray is likely to command a top of market deal whenever he signs so there might be some logic to giving him a deal now, when the top of the market is lower than it might be in a year, with Lamar Jackson still unsigned long-term and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert set to be eligible for extensions next off-season. However, when Murray is ultimately signed long-term, it will make it even more difficult for the Cardinals to keep talent around Murray. In the salary cap era, only Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl with a cap hit lower than 11%, so Murray will have to prove he is on that level to justify his new payday when that day comes.

One concern with Murray, given his size (5-10 207) and playing style (314 carries in 3 seasons in the league), is injuries and he did miss the first three games of his career last season, but the Cardinals were able to hold down the fort pretty well because backup Colt McCoy gave them solid play. McCoy has been a bit of an erratic backup throughout his career, with just a 80.3 career QB rating, but he had a 101.4 QB rating on 99 pass attempts in his first season in Arizona last season and seems to be a good fit for the scheme. He’s only started 33 games total in 12 seasons in the league and he’s now going into his age 36 season, so it’s very possible he would struggle if he had to start for an extended period of time, but there are worse backups. The Cardinals obviously need Murray to stay healthy though, if they want any chance at being contenders.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the Cardinals traded their first round pick, 23rd overall, to the Ravens for wide receiver Marquise Brown. The Cardinals did get back pick #100, but they still gave up the equivalent of the 28th overall pick in draft capital, a steep price to pay for a wide receiver who wants a big long-term extension added on to the 15.52 million he’s due over the next two seasons on the final two years of his rookie deal.

Brown is a 2019 first round pick who is still only going into his age 25 season and there is some belief that he’ll be able to consistently put up better numbers in a more pass heavy system, after beginning his career with the run heavy Ravens, which is a big part of the reason Brown requested a trade from Baltimore in the draft place. However, Brown has actually surpassed 100 targets in each of the past two seasons and, while his 1.69 yards per route run average for his career is solid, it’s not the kind of number that suggests he’s secretly an elite wide receiver trapped in the wrong offense.

Brown played with Murray at the University of Oklahoma and their previous chemistry, as well as the likelihood that having Brown around will keep the mercurial Murray happy, make the addition of Brown more logical, but he hasn’t proven he’s worth the top level contract he wants long-term and giving a first round pick for the right to give him that contract is very questionable. He does give them a necessary replacement for Christian Kirk (1.81 yards per route run in 2021) and he gives them a interim #1 wide receiver while DeAndre Hopkins serves his 6-game suspension, but he comes at a very steep price.

Prior to the seven games he missed last season, Hopkins has missed just two games total in eight seasons in the league from 2013-2020. Starting in his breakout season in his second season in the league, the 2013 1st round pick had seven straight seasons among the top wide receivers in the league from 2014-2020, averaging a 99/1315/8 slash line and 2.18 yards per route run, despite generally inconsistent quarterback play, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and seemed to be slowing down a little bit in 2021 even before his injury, as he was averaging just 1.76 yards per route run and was on pace for just a 71/972/14 slash line across 17 games.

Hopkins still was PFF’s 18th ranked wide receiver across the 10 games he did play, but that was his lowest rating since his 2016 season, with five finishes in the top-7 among wide receivers on PFF the previous seven seasons prior to 2021. His age isn’t a big concern, but 30-year-old wide receivers are about 40% less likely to have a 1,000 yard receiver than 26-year-old wide receivers and, even if he doesn’t drop off significantly this season, it’s likely that is coming in the next 2-3 seasons, with 33-year-old wide receivers being 80% less likely to have a 1,000 yard receiver than 26-year-old wide receivers. Hopkins has a good chance to remain one of the better wide receivers in the league when on the field in 2022, but his best days are likely behind him and a higher than expected dropoff is certainly possible, especially if he continues becoming increasingly injury prone.

Before trading for Marquise Brown, the Cardinals brought back veteran AJ Green, but he was never a long-term solution, now heading into his age 34 season. The 4th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Bengals. Green surpassed 1,000 yard receiving in six of his first seven seasons in the league, but has had a pretty typical decline for a top level wide receiver, posting his most recent and likely final 1,000 yard season in 2017, in his age 29 season.

Green got off to an impressive start in 2018, with a 46/694/6 slash line in 9 games, but then he got hurt, leading to him missing all of 2019 and he has not nearly been the same since. His yards per route run average in 2021 was up from the pathetic 1.02 average he had in his final season in Cincinnati on a hapless Bengals team, but he still only averaged 1.60 yards per route run in a middling at best 2021 campaign and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined further in 2022. He could remain a serviceable stopgap, but he could also see his abilities totally fall off and his best days are almost definitely behind him either way.

The Cardinals also have 2021 2nd round pick Rondale Moore, who figures to be the 3rd receiver to begin the season, with Hopkins out. Moore is still extremely raw, only turning 22 this season, but he had an impressive 1.64 yards per route run average as a rookie in a limited role and could be ready for a bigger role in year two. Even when Hopkins returns, Moore figures to continue seeing action in 4-wide receiver sets, which the Cardinals run about as much as any team in the league under head coach and offensive play caller Kliff Kingsbury.

Because of how many 4-wide receiver sets they run, the Cardinals never used a tight end much in the early days of the Kliff Kingbury/Kyler Murray era, but that changed when they acquired veteran Zach Ertz from the Eagles mid-season last year. Ertz seemed to be nearing the end in 2020 and earlier last season with the Eagles, seeing his yards per route run average drop to 1.03 between 2020 and his time with the Eagles in 2021, after averaging 1.83 in the first seven seasons of his career prior to 2020, but he managed to have something of a resurgence in what was previously considered an unfriendly offense for tight ends in Arizona, posting a 56/574/3 slash line in 11 games while averaging 1.54 yards per route run, not as good as what he averaged earlier in his career, but still an above average figure for a tight end.

Ertz’ best days are still almost definitely behind him, as he now heads into his age 32 season, and it’s very possible he could see his 2020 form return, but it’s also very possible he remains a solid starter for at least another season. The Cardinals clearly believe Ertz can remain a solid starter going forward, re-signing him on a 3-year, 31.65 million dollar deal with 14.5 million fully guaranteed in the first year, but they also hedged their bet a little bit, using their 2nd round pick on Colorado State’s Trey McBride as potential long-term successor for Ertz.

McBride was mostly drafted for the future, but with Hopkins suspended to begin the year, we could see more two-tight end sets from the Cardinals, so the rookie could have a significant role to begin the season. The Cardinals also still have veteran tight end Maxx Williams, whose torn ACL suffered last season was what spurred the Cardinals to acquire Ertz in the first place. Williams has just 102 catches in 68 career games and injuries have been a consistent problem for him, costing him 45 games total in seven seasons in the league, but he’s an above average blocker and will be useful in that capacity if he can recover from his latest injury and stay on the field. This is a deep and talented group with a lot of potential when Hopkins is out there, but they’ll miss him early in the season and he may continue declining when he returns.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Cardinals employed a two-headed attack out of the backfield last season, three if you include Kyler Murray’s contributions as a runner. This off-season, both of those backs, James Conner and Chase Edmonds, were set to hit free agency. Conner had more carries (202 vs. 116) and significantly more touchdowns (15 vs. 2), but he was also the significantly less efficient back on a per carry basis (3.72 YPC and 52% carry success rate vs. 5.10 and 58% for Edmonds), so it might have been a mistake for the Cardinals to bring Conner back on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal, while Edmonds signed in Miami on a cheaper 2-year, 12.1 million dollar deal.

The Cardinals also didn’t do anything to replace Edmonds aside from signing mediocre veteran Darrel Williams, so Conner figures to have a significantly expanded role this season, a concern considering he’s been injury prone throughout his career, never missing fewer than two games and never surpassing 215 carries in a season. Williams is likely to have at least some role as the #2 back, probably mostly on passing downs, after a 47/452/2 slash line with the Chiefs last season, and he’ll likely see at least a couple starts at some point as well when Conner inevitably misses time with injury, but that is a concern, considering Williams has averaged just 3.85 YPC on 237 carries in four seasons in the league. Even his 1.18 yards per route run average is mediocre, actually lower than Conner’s 1.27 average for his career.

It’s possible Williams could face competition for the #2 back job from incumbent #3 running back Eno Benjamin, but the 2020 7th round pick struggled when given the first action of his career in 2021, averaging just 3.47 YPC on 34 carries. He’d likely see some role if Conner gets hurt, but he would likely be just as unimpressive as Williams in an expanded role. The Cardinals are counting on Conner staying healthy as a feature back, with questionable depth behind him, but his 4.16 YPC and 1.27 yards per route run average for his career are underwhelming and he’s never been healthy enough to have more than 270 touches in a season in five seasons in the league, so he’s a questionable fit in a feature back role. It’s a concern for this backfield.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Cardinals’ offensive line was more of a weakness than a strength in 2021. Their expected starting five was not that bad, but all five missed at least some time with injury, so they rarely had their expected line together and their top reserves Josh Jones (852 snaps), Sean Harlow (441 snaps), and Justin Murray (90 snaps) all struggled. In addition to depth being a weakness, the Cardinals also had a weak spot on the starting offensive line at right guard to address this off-season. However, the Cardinals did nothing of note to address their depth and only replaced mediocre incumbent right guard Max Garcia with free agent addition Will Hernandez, who may not be a significant upgrade.

A second round pick by the Giants in 2018, Hernandez looked like a long-term above average starter after a solid rookie season in which he made all 16 starts and finished as PFF’s 24th ranked guard. However, that has proven to be his peak thus far in his career, as he’s finished below average on PFF in each of the past three seasons and was even benched for a stretch in 2020. Garcia finished the 2021 season as PFF’s 64th ranked guard out of 90 eligible, but Hernandez was even worse, finishing 68th. Hernandez is an experienced starter (56 career starts) and may still have some bounce back potential, but he’s already in his age 27 season and is unlikely to have significant untapped upside. I wouldn’t expect him to be more than a serviceable starter and even that may be wishful thinking.

The Cardinals’ depth concerns upfront are even more concerning as several of their starters are on the wrong side of 30, with left guard Justin Pugh going into his age 32 season, center Rodney Hudson going into his age 33 season, and right tackle Kelvin Beachum going into his age 33 season. Pugh was an injury concern even when he was younger, playing all 16 games just twice in nine seasons in the league and missing 30 games total over those nine seasons, and he’s unlikely to become more durable now in his 30s. He was still a solid starter last season, but early career injuries largely sapped his abilities, as he hasn’t been more than a solid starter since 2016, and he could easily fall off significantly in 2022, given his age.

Hudson had a significant drop off last season, in his first year with the Cardinals after being acquired from the Raiders for a third round pick last off-season, finishing 28th out of 41 eligible centers, after finishing in the top-13 among centers in each of the previous seven seasons, with five top-10 finishes in those seven years. Hudson could bounce back a little bit in 2022, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and he also could just as easily drop off even further, as he goes further into his 30s. Beachum was still a capable starter in 2021, but he did earn his worst grade from PFF since 2016 and also could easily continue declining. Even if he doesn’t decline, he hasn’t been much more than a middling starter for most of his career, though he is plenty experienced with 130 career starts in 10 seasons in the league.

The Cardinals will need Pugh, Hudson, and Beachum to hold up as at least capable starters for another season because Josh Jones, Sean Harlow, and Justin Murray remain as their top reserves and none of them are likely to be significantly better than a year ago. Jones has the most upside of the bunch, as a 2020 3rd round pick, but he was horrendous last season, finishing 85th out of 90 eligible guards on PFF, after barely playing as a rookie. Even if he takes a step forward in his third year in the league, he could easily still remain a below average option. Harlow, meanwhile, is a 2020 undrafted free agent who struggled in the first significant action of his career last season and is no guarantee to be better going forward, while Justin Murray is a career backup who has never been more than a middling injury fill-in.

The only above average starter on this offensive line in the prime of their career is left tackle DJ Humphries, who heads into his age 29 season. A first round pick in 2015, Humphries took a year to earn a starting job and dealt with a lot of injuries early in his career, so he only had 27 starts in the first four seasons of his career, but in three seasons since, he’s missed just one game total and has developed into a consistently above average starter. His best season came in 2020 when he finished 5th among offensive tackles on PFF and, while he hasn’t consistently been that good, it shows the highest ceiling he has. Other Humphries though, this is a pretty underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Cardinals lost Chandler Jones in free agency this off-season, with Jones signing in Las Vegas on a 3-year, 51 million dollar contract. Jones is going into his age 32 season, but he still had the 7th double digit sack season of his career last season and the Cardinals top’ returning edge defenders Markus Golden and Devon Kennard are also on the wrong side of 30, going into their age 31 seasons in 2022. The Cardinals used 3rd round picks on San Diego State’s Cameron Thomas and University of Cincinnati’s Myjai Sanders in this year’s draft, but they probably won’t play huge roles as a rookie, so the Cardinals will be relying heavily on the veterans Golden and Kennard at this position in 2022.

Golden actually led this team with sacks last season with 11, while also totaling 9 hits and pressuring the quarterback at a 11.4% rate, and he’s mostly been an above average pass rusher throughout his career, with 44.5 sacks, 73 hits, and a 12.8% pressure rate in 94 games in 7 seasons in the league. He was limited to just 15 games total from 2017-2018 by injury, but has bounced back nicely to only miss one game over the past three seasons. He could easily have another above average season rushing the passer, but his age is becoming a concern and if his pass rush ability significantly declines, he would become a liability because his run defense has always been a problem.

Kennard, on the other hand, is in many ways the opposite, as he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with 26.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate in 111 games in 8 seasons in the league, but he’s also generally received above average grades from PFF for his run defense. He’s played more of a reserve role over the past two seasons since joining the Cardinals, playing just 22.8 snaps per game in 28 games, but he played 44.3 snaps per game in his first six seasons in the league prior to the past two seasons and now will need to play a bigger role with Jones gone. How effective he’ll be in that larger role, now on the wrong side of 30, is questionable though. The Cardinals will need Golden and Kennard to not show any signs of decline and they will need good production from their rookies for this to be an above average group. More likely, they’ll be more of a middling group.

Grade: B-

Interior Defender

JJ Watt returns to the Cardinals this season, which is important because their defense fell off significantly when he missed the final 10 games of last season. Watt is going into his age 33 season and has missed at least half the season with injury in four of the past six seasons though, so he’s not that reliable of an option. Watt still played at a pretty high level when on the field last season, pressuring the quarterback at a very impressive 12.9% rate from the interior and ranking 10th among interior defenders on PFF across the seven games he played, but he still finished with the 3rd lowest PFF grade of his 11-year career, with his previous season in 2020 being the 4th lowest grade of his career, so he’s clearly on the decline. Even a declined JJ Watt could still be one of the better players in the league at his position, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued declining further, considering his age and injury history.

If you’ve noticed something of a theme on this Cardinals team, it’s having key players who have been accomplished in the past, but who are now on the wrong side of 30. In addition to Watt, edge defenders Markus Golden and Devon Kennard, offensive linemen Justin Pugh, Rodney Hudson, and Kelvin Beachum, and pass catchers DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Zach Ertz are all on the wrong side of 30 and those nine players could all easily be starters for this team.

It’s not hard to see how this could be one of the oldest teams in the league this season in terms of average age of snaps played, which is a concern, because older players tend to drop off suddenly. If that happens to a few of the aforementioned players, the Cardinals will be in trouble, given that efficiency ratings suggested they were a middling team last season, even before off-season departures and potential drop offs from key players.

Watt dropping off significantly would especially be a concern, not just because of how well he still played last season before the season, but also because the Cardinals have next to nothing at the interior defender position behind him. Jordan Phillips (284 snaps) and Corey Peters (362 snaps) were their only other interior defenders to earn even an average grade from PFF last season, but those two veterans are gone and the Cardinals didn’t do anything to replace him, so they will be banking on getting better play from some of their young players at the position.

Those younger player sare 2019 3rd round pick Zach Allen (684 snaps), 2020 4th round pick Leki Fotu (371 snaps), fellow 2020 4th round pick Rashard Lawrence (219 snaps), and 2019 7th round pick Michael Dogbe (263 snaps), who all had roles last season and who are candidates to see their roles expanded in 2022, despite all of them finishing below average on PFF in every season of their careers. Allen led this position in snaps played last season, so there might not be much room for his role to grow, but either way, he will have a big role, which is a problem because he is a significant liability against the run. His career 6.4% pressure rate is not bad and he’s still only in his age 25 season and may have untapped upside, but he’ll need to improve his run defense to become even a capable starter.

Fotu, Lawrence, and Dogbe all may have untapped upside as well, but they’ve shown even less than Allen has thus far in his career, with Fotu and Lawrence also struggling on snap counts of 284 and 166 respectively as rookies in 2020 and Dogbe only playing 123 snaps total in two seasons in the league prior to earning a slightly bigger role in 2021. It’s very possible none of them ever develop into useful contributors, which is a concern because the Cardinals will need at least a couple of them to do so this season, for this to be a solid group overall. JJ Watt’s presence elevates this whole position group, but he has become increasingly unreliable in recent years.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Cardinals used back-to-back first round picks on off ball linebackers in the 2020 and 2021 NFL Draft, taking Isaiah Simmons 8th overall in 2020 and then taking Zaven Collins 16th overall in 2021. Simmons only saw 376 snaps as a rookie, but he moved into an every down role in year two in 2021. Collins was supposed to join him and his selection was expected to lead to the Cardinals trading or releasing veteran Jordan Hicks, but instead Hicks took a pay cut and stayed ahead of Collins on the depth chart all season, limiting Collins to 220 snaps as a reserve. In fact, Hicks was the Cardinals’ best off ball linebacker overall in terms of PFF grade and finished 27th in overall grade among off ball linebackers.

Hicks was still let go this off-season, a move that saved the Cardinals 6 million, freeing up the job for Collins, but there is no guarantee Collins is as good in his first year as a starter, even if he is a first round talent who flashed a lot of potential as a rookie. On top of that, Simmons hasn’t shown much more than middling play thus far in his career, though he obviously has the upside to take a big leap forward in year three. Both Collins and Simmons have the upside to be a very talented off ball linebacker duo long-term, but there is no guarantee they reach their potential and, even if they do, it might not be in 2022.

Collins and Simmons are also both somewhat non-prototypical linebackers, with the 6-4 230 pound Simmons having the athleticism to play on the slot and to move to the edge and the 6-4 260 Collins having the size to also play some defensive line, so there will be snaps available for at least one reserve off ball linebacker to see action. The most likely candidate for that role is veteran free agent signing Nick Vigil, who is plenty experienced, with 51 starts in 85 games in 6 seasons in the league, but who also has never been more than a middling linebacker and who finished last season as PFF’s 80th ranked off ball linebacker out of 94 eligible across 718 snaps. He’s not a bad reserve option, but he’ll likely struggle if he has to see extended action. This group has upside, but obvious downside if neither Collins nor Simmons take a step forward and it’s very possible they’ll miss Jordan Hicks, their best player at the position a year ago.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Robert Alford definitely wasn’t the biggest name on the 2021 Cardinals, but he was by default their top cornerback and his absence down the stretch last season was as big of a reason as any why the Cardinals declined down the stretch. Alford is oft injured, playing just 28 games total over the past 4 seasons, and was heading into his age 34 season in 2022, so the Cardinals opted not to retain him this off-season and he could easily have struggled even if he was brought back, so it’s understand why they let him go, but the Cardinals also didn’t replace him, so cornerback looks like it will be a very questionable position for the Cardinals this season.

Byron Murphy (967 snaps) and Marco Wilson (748 snaps) both played significant roles last season in three cornerback sets with Alford and both remain on the roster, but they finished 89th and 117th respectively out of 134 eligible cornerbacks on PFF and will likely be underwhelming starting options again in 2022. Wilson was only a rookie, but he was also only a 4th round pick and it’s far from a guarantee that 4th round picks ever develop into long-term starters, even ones that see playing time early in their career. Wilson could take a step forward in year two, but he played badly enough last season that a step forward wouldn’t necessarily make him even a capable starter.

Similarly, Murphy is a 2019 2nd round pick who was a little better in 2020 than he was in 2021, but he was still only a middling cornerback in 2020 and he finished 122nd out of 135 eligible cornerbacks as a rookie in 2019, so he’s had an inconsistent at best three years in the league thus far. Still only in his age 24 season, there is still time for him to develop into an above average starter and, even if that doesn’t happen this season, he could still be better than a year ago, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Without any significant additions being made to this group this off-season, the Cardinals will likely turn to Antonio Hamilton as their third cornerback. He was decent on 313 snaps last season, but that was a very limited sample size and it was still a career high in defensive snaps for a 6-year veteran who has primarily been a special teamer in his career. Now in his age 29 season, it’s unlikely he’s suddenly going to break out as even an average #3 cornerback.

Making matters worse, the Cardinals don’t have any real depth to speak of behind their shaky top-3 cornerbacks. Breon Borders was probably the most significant addition the Cardinals made to this group this off-season and he flashed potential on 360 snaps with the Titans in 2020, but the 2017 undrafted free agent has played just 166 other defensive snaps in his career, including just 70 last season for the Titans, so he’s a highly unproven option as well. The Cardinals took cornerback Christian Matthew in the 7th round, but he would very likely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. This is one of the shakiest cornerback groups in the league.

Things are fortunately better at safety, although somewhat by default. Budda Baker is arguably the Cardinals’ best defensive player with Chandler Jones gone and Markus Golden and JJ Watt getting up in age, but Baker is also coming off of a down year. He still finished above average on PFF, but he fell to 47th among safeties on PFF after finishing 33rd in 2019 and 10th in 2020. He’s only in his age 26 season though and he’s been an above average starter in all five seasons of his career, so he has a good chance to bounce back and even if he doesn’t, he should remain a valuable player.

Jalen Thompson was actually the better of the two starting safeties last season, finishing 37th among safeties on PFF in his first full season as a starter. A 5th round pick in the 2019 supplemental draft, Thompson actually became a starter midway through his rookie season, when he made 9 starts in total, but his second season in the league was ended after 4 starts by injury. He fared well when on the field in his first two seasons in the league though, so it wasn’t surprising that he had a solid season as a full-time starter in his 3rd year in the league. He should remain at least a solid starter and, still only going into his age 24 season, he may still have some untapped upside.

Depth is a bit of a concern at safety though, with Deionte Thompson being their only notable reserve. The incumbent #3 safety, Thompson should remain in that role, but the 2019 5th round pick has struggled in limited action in his career and would likely be a big weakness if forced to start for an extended period of time. He’s played just 655 snaps total in his career, with just 71 of those snaps coming last season. The Cardinals will need their starting safeties to stay healthy because they’ll have to try to mask the Cardinals’ big weakness at cornerback.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

The Cardinals’ special teams was slightly below average last season, finishing 20th in special teams DVOA. Kicker Matt Prater had a better good season and returns for another year, but, sticking with the theme of this team, he’s getting up there in age, even for a kicker, in his age 38 season, while punter Andy Lee is in his age 40 season and coming off of a significantly down year, finishing dead last out of 35 eligible punters on PFF.

Rondale Moore will likely remain their primary return man, even if he has to play a bigger role on offense when DeAndre Hopkins is suspended, but he was underwhelming last season and is not a guarantee to be better in year two. On top of that, one of the Cardinals’ two best core special teamers, veteran Demetrius Harris, is no longer with the team, leaving Dennis Gardeck as their only top-50 special teamer on PFF from a year ago. Because of that, it wouldn’t be a surprise if this group was even worse in 2022, especially given the age of their kicker and punter.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Cardinals went 11-6 last season, but they needed a +12 turnover margin to win that many games, finishing just 15th in efficiency, and they were exposed in a big way down the stretch last season. Even if they brought back the same team as a year ago, they likely would not win 11 games again, as they would not be able to count on dominating the turnover margin again, as turnover margin is not predictive year-to-year, but the Cardinals also look worse than a year ago.

The aging Cardinals lost top edge defender Chandler Jones and top cornerback Robert Alford this off-season, both over 30, which will be big losses, and they still have nine players over 30 who could easily start for them this season and if even a few of them drop off significantly, that will be very noticeable. The absence of JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins was a big part of the reason for their struggles in the second half last season, but Watt is a highly injury prone player in his age 33 season, while Hopkins is also on the wrong side of 30 and will sit for at least the first 6 games with a suspension.

The Cardinals also lost running back Chase Edmonds and linebacker Jordan Hicks this off-season, key players from last season’s team, and had to trade their first round pick to get Marquise Brown to replace another departure Christian Kirk, meaning the Cardinals didn’t get much out of the draft. There is still talent on this team, but they should be worse than a year ago and they’re starting from a lower base point than their 11-6 record a year ago would suggest. The NFC is the weaker of the two conferences by a wide margin, but the Cardinals play in probably the toughest division in the conference and are not guaranteed to even get a wild card berth again. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: With several key off-season losses and an aging roster, the Cardinals are not as talented of a team as they were last year when they weren’t as good as their 11-6 record. This year, they could easily finish as a sub-.500 team and they look like a long shot for the post-season.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC West

Denver Broncos 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Broncos

Quarterback

The Broncos were just 7-10 last season, but things were better than that suggests. The Broncos were 7-6 and in the middle of a close game with the Bengals when they lost starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the rest of the season with a concussion, leading to the Broncos losing their final four games of the season. Bridgewater was also knocked out of an eventual loss to the Ravens earlier in the season, so the Broncos were actually 7-5 last season in games that Bridgewater started and finished. Bridgewater also was far from their only key player who missed time last season, as the Broncos had the 5th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. Despite that, the Broncos actually finished with a positive point differential at +13, suggesting they still were better than their 7-10 record, even with all of the talent that was sidelined.

Bridgewater was unspectacular, completing 66.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while finishing 21st among 39 eligible quarterbacks on PFF, but he was significantly better than backup Drew Lock, who completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while finishing 32nd among quarterbacks on PFF. Still, with Bridgewater set to hit free agency this off-season, the Broncos were in the market for an upgrade and they found one when the Seahawks decided to trade them their long-time franchise quarterback Russell Wilson for two first round picks, two second round picks, a fifth round pick, and three players, including Drew Lock, as well as starting tight end Noah Fant and talented defensive lineman Shelby Harris.

The Seahawks moved him because he is highly paid (51 million over the next two seasons) and getting up there in age (age 34 season), while the Seahawks are seemingly hitting the reset button and undergoing a rebuild, but Wilson was consistently one of the best quarterbacks in the league throughout his 10 years in Seattle and has yet to show many signs of slowing down. In total, Wilson has completed 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 292 touchdowns, and 87 interceptions in his career, while rushing for 4,689 yards and 23 touchdowns on 846 carries (5.54 YPC), and finishing in the top-10 among quarterbacks on PFF in seven of ten seasons.

Wilson missed three games with a finger injury last season, but he had never missed a game with injury in his entire career prior to that and returned from a 6-8 week injury much quicker than expected. Wilson wasn’t quite the same immediately upon his return, but after his first three games back, he returned to form. If you exclude those first three starts after his return, Wilson completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 8.24 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while earning PFF’s 10th highest grade among quarterbacks over those games.

Athletic quarterbacks like Russell Wilson tend not to age as well, as their athleticism declines, and Wilson is coming off by far his worst rushing season in terms of carries (43) and yards (183), but he should remain at least an above average quarterback for another season, even if he doesn’t bounce back as a runner. He significantly elevates the ceiling of a Broncos team that has a lot of talent around the quarterback and that is clearly in win now mode, after giving up a significant amount of draft capital.

One thing the Broncos still need to do is find a better backup quarterback, with Brett Rypien currently in line to be the #2 quarterback. Rypien was undrafted in 2019 and has thrown just 42 passes in three seasons with the Broncos, posting a 61.2 QB rating, so he would be a very underwhelming option if Wilson were to go down. Rypien’s only competition right now is career journeyman Josh Johnson, the other quarterback on their roster, who has made just 5 starts over the past 10 seasons. Even with the backup quarterback situation though, the Broncos are still in an enviable situation under center.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

One position group where the Broncos had significant injury absences was wide receiver, where Jerry Jeudy missed 7 games and KJ Hamler missed 14 games. Fortunately, the Broncos had a lot of depth at the wide receiver position going into last season and wide receivers Courtland Sutton (58/776/2) and Tim Patrick (53/734/5) led this group in receiving with Jeudy and Hamler missing time. All four should be healthy going into 2022, so this is a deep group, even if they lack a true #1 receiver.

Sutton and Patrick had pretty underwhelming 1.43 and 1.48 yards per route run averages, in part because of their inconsistent quarterback play, but Jerry was significantly better at 1.85 yards per route run, so getting a full season out of him should be a boost for this offense. That would especially be true if the 2020 1st round pick takes a step forward in his third season in the league, still only in his age 23 season.

Jeudy also had a 1.66 yards per route run average as a rookie, so he’s flashed a lot of potential so far, and he has the upside to be a #1 receiver long-term. Hamler was also drafted early in 2020, taken in the second round, but he hasn’t shown much so far, averaging just 1.18 yards per route run. Hamler still has upside, but coming off a torn ACL doesn’t help and he figures to open the season as the clear #4 receiver, unless injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart.

Sutton has been a #1 receiver for the Broncos in the past, surpassing the 1000 yard mark with a 72/1112/6 slash line in 2019 (2.08 yards per route run), in just his second season in the league. That made it seem like he’d be a #1 receiver for years to come, but he tore his ACL early in 2020 and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2021, even if he didn’t miss a game. He has a lot of bounce back potential though, now another year removed from the injury, especially now that he has a significant upgrade under center.

With Jeudy and Sutton possessing the most upside of the bunch, Tim Patrick will likely settle in as the #3 receiver, a role he’s a little overqualified for. The 2017 undrafted free agent didn’t do much early in his career, but he’s had back-to-back solid seasons for the Broncos, with slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 respectively and an average of 1.59 yards per route run over those two seasons. He probably won’t match the target totals he had in 2019 (79) and 2020 (85), with Jeudy and Sutton likely to command significantly more targets than him, but he also gets an upgrade at quarterback, so he could still remain a productive player in a smaller role.

Wilson won’t have the benefit of tight end Noah Fant, who went the opposite way in the trade with Seattle. Fant had a solid season as a receiver, averaging 1.52 yards per route run, but he struggled as a blocker and the Broncos have a good internal replacement for him in Albert Okwuegbunam. A 2020 4th round pick, Okwuegbunam hasn’t gotten to play much thus far in his career, limited to 86 snaps by injury as a rookie and then playing 421 snaps as Fant’s backup last season, but he’s flashed a lot of potential as a receiver, averaging 2.02 yards per route run. He’s not much of a blocker either and he’s a projection to a larger role, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ended up as an upgrade over Fant as a receiver.

The Broncos will still miss Fant though, as they won’t be able to pass out of two tight end sets as effectively as they did last season. They used a 3rd round pick on UCLA’s Greg Dulcich, but he might be too raw to have a big role as a rookie, so the Broncos could lean on veteran Eric Tomlinson as the #2 tight end. Tomlinson is a capable blocker, but has never been much of a receiver, with 18 career catches in 54 games in the league. The Broncos will likely use more three and four wide receiver sets to make up for their lack of tight end depth, but they have plenty of wide receiver depth and Okwuegbunam has the upside to be an above average receiving option.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Broncos also had a lot of injuries on the offensive line last season, as they didn’t have a single starter play all 17 games, missing a total of 16 games across the five starters. All five starters earned average or better or grades from PFF, so they played well when healthy, and they return four of those five starters, so if they can stay healthier, they have a good chance to be an above average unit. The one change they made was at right tackle, where free agent Bobby Massie was not retained and was replaced by free agent acquisition Billy Turner, which is essentially a lateral change.

Also capable of playing guard, Turner has been a capable, if unspectacular starter over the past four seasons, making 54 starts in total. His age is a concern, now going into his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of dropping off, so he has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter. If he struggles, he would likely be replaced by fellow veteran free agent acquisition Tom Compton, a versatile player who should provide depth across the board. Compton has never made more than 14 starts in a season in 10 seasons in the league (44 total starts) and now heads into his age 33 season, but he’s played well when depended on, finishing above average on PFF in three of the past four seasons, doing so both at guard and at tackle.

Compton won’t be the Broncos’ only talented reserve either, as they have four starting caliber players competing for three starting spots on the interior of their offensive line. Graham Glasgow and Lloyd Cushenberry were the Broncos starters at right guard and center respectively going into last season, with 3rd round rookie Quinn Meinerz serving as a reserve, but Glasgow was limited to 384 snaps by injuries, opening the door for Meinerz to play 623 snaps as a rookie and he fared pretty well, finishing 38th among guards on PFF.

At center, Cushenberry made the most starts of any Broncos offensive lineman with 16, but the 2020 3rd round pick was a middling starter, after struggling mightily in 16 rookie year starts, so Meinerz could be an upgrade on him. The Broncos could also keep Meinerz at guard and move Glasgow inside to center, where he has some experience earlier in his career. Another option they have is just moving Glasgow to the bench, which could happen if he doesn’t play well in training camp, coming off of a broken leg and going into his age 30 season.

Signed to a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal in free agency two off-seasons ago, Glasgow was a consistently above average starter throughout his time in Detroit, whether he played guard or center, but, in two seasons in Denver, he’s been limited to 20 games total by injury and he’s mostly been a middling starter. The Broncos only kept him this off-season after he cut his expected 9.5 million dollar salary down to 3.2 million and, even if he can bounce back from his most recent injury, the Broncos might not have a starting spot for him, on a deep offensive line.

Left guard Dalton Risner is the most secure in his role of any of the Broncos’ interior offensive linemen, having earned an average or better grade from PFF in three seasons since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2019 (47 of 49 possible starts), including a career best 31st ranked finish on PFF in 15 starts in 2021. He should have another solid season. The Broncos also bring back reserve Netane Muti, who has been underwhelming in four career starts in two seasons since the Broncos took him in the 6th round in 2020 and who will likely be further down on the depth chart on a deeper offensive line this season.

The best player on this offensive line is left tackle Garett Bolles, who finished 26th among offensive tackles on PFF last season, after a 4th ranked season in 2020. Bolles was a first round pick in 2017 and struggled mightily with penalties early in his career, so much so that the Broncos declined his 5th year option for 2021, despite the fact that he allowed just 14 sacks in 48 starts in his first three seasons in the league.

Bolles’ 45 penalties from 2017-2019 led the league over that stretch, but he’s committed just 15 in two seasons since, leading to the Broncos keeping him on a 4-year, 68 million dollar extension long-term. As long as he can continue to avoid penalties, Bolles should remain one of the best offensive tackles in the league again in 2022. He’ll be backed up by Calvin Anderson, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has just five career starts, but who flashed a lot of potential in 172 snaps last season. This is a deep offensive line without any clear weaknesses in the starting five.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The strength of this offense last season was their running game, as they had a pair of running backs in Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams who both were effective on over 200 carries, leading the team to a 4.45 YPC average, 10th best in the NFL. It looked like the Broncos would lose Gordon this off-season, but they re-signed him as a free agent and they did so relatively cheaply, on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal. A second round pick last season, Williams could take on a larger percentage of the carries in year two and the Broncos are unlikely to rely on their running backs as much with Russell Wilson being added, but both backs should still have a significant role on this offense and they could find more running room now that the passing game is more of a downfield threat.

Gordon turned his 203 carries into 918 yards (4.52 YPC) and 8 touchdowns and ranked 16th in the NFL in carry success rate (55%), while Williams had a slightly lower YPC average on an identical amount of carries, rushing for 903 yards and 4 touchdowns (4.45 YPC) and a lower carry success rate (48%), but averaged more yards after contact than Gordon (3.42 vs. 3.12), broke more tackles (63 vs. 48). and was the more effective player in the passing game (1.21 yards per route run vs. 0.86). Overall, both finished above average on PFF, with Gordon ranking 15th among running backs on PFF and Williams ranking 18th at the position.

Gordon is a 7-year veteran who has surpassed at least 150 carries in every season in the league, rushing for 4.16 YPC and 53 touchdowns on 1,477 career carries. He used to be used more in the passing game earlier in his career with the Chargers (284 career catches for 2,244 yards and 12 touchdowns), but has not been as involved since joining the Broncos two off-seasons ago. Williams figures to be the primary passing down back again, but both players will play a big role in both situations. The Broncos also have Mike Boone as the #3 running back and he’s averaged 5.52 YPC on 75 career carries in four seasons in the league. He could be a decent fill-in if either running back missed time with injury. This is a talented backfield.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Broncos finished last season 10th in defensive efficiency, which is even more impressive when you consider that arguably their three best players and their three highest graded players on PFF all didn’t finish the season with the team, with Alexander Johnson (323 snaps) and Josey Jewell (82 snaps) going down for the season with injury and Von Miller (328 snaps) getting traded to the Rams for a second and third round pick, ahead of his pending free agency this off-season.

The Broncos replaced Miller by signing ex-Cowboy Randy Gregory to a 5-year, 70 million dollar deal with 28 million guaranteed in free agency this off-season. Gregory comes with plenty of risk, as a soon-to-be-30-year-old who missed all of 2017 and 2019 with suspension and who has never played more than 14 games or 457 snaps in a season due to disciplinary and durability problems, but Gregory has been heavily effective when on the field, especially as a pass rusher, and he could prove to be a good value if he can keep on his recent play.

For his career, Gregory has had a 12.7% pressure rate and he’s been especially good over the past two seasons since getting his life on track, totaling 9.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 22 games, while finishing 11th and 18th among edge defenders in overall grade on PFF in the two seasons respectively. He’s also missed 11 games over that stretch and it’s unclear if he can hold up as the 600-700 snaps per season type player that the Broncos are paying him to be, but he could easily prove to be a worthwhile risk.

Gregory will start opposite Bradley Chubb, who is coming off of a very disappointing season, being limited to 268 snaps in 7 games by injury and struggling when on the field, with 0 sacks, 4 hits, and a 6.9% pressure rate. Chubb also was limited to 233 snaps in 2019 by injury, but the 2018 5th overall pick has shown a lot of potential when healthy, totaling 19.5 sacks, 19 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 30 games between 2018 and 2020, and he’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he has a lot of bounce back potential. He also has all the financial incentive in the world to perform this season, going into the final year of his rookie deal, with a big payday in free agency likely awaiting him if he can bounce back. Gregory and Chubb both come with risk, but they have the potential to be an above average edge defender duo.

The Broncos have good edge defender depth too, especially after using their second round pick on Oklahoma edge defender Nik Bonitto. The Broncos also have Jonathon Cooper (457 snaps) and Malik Reed (737 snaps), who saw significant roles last season with Chubb missing a lot of the season and Miller getting traded. Cooper was a 7th round pick in 2021 and, while he didn’t show much as a pass rusher as a rookie, with 2.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate, he excelled as a run defender. I don’t know if he’ll ever develop into a starter, which rarely happens from a 7th round pick, but he should provide decent depth again. Reed, an undrafted free agent in 2019, is a similar player, generally earning above average grades from PFF for his run defense, but totaling just 15 sacks, 17 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate in 45 career games. This group has a lot of potential and depth, but their starters come with a lot of risk.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Shelby Harris was traded to the Seahawks in the Russell Wilson trade and the Broncos will miss him, especially as a pass rusher, with him totaling 6 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate last season, a great rate for a player who almost exclusively lines up on the interior. With Harris gone, Dre’Mont Jones will likely be the Broncos’ top interior defender, after playing 560 snaps and 614 snaps over the past two seasons respectively. The 2019 3rd round pick doesn’t hold up well against the run, but he’s an effective interior pass rusher, with 15.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in three seasons in the league. He also may still have untapped potential, only heading into his age 25 season.

Harris will effectively be replaced by free agent signing DJ Jones, who comes over from the 49ers on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. A 6th round pick in 2017, Jones has developed into a capable player and is coming off the best season of his career, playing 550 snaps and earning above average grades for his run defense and pass rush. If he keeps that up, he should be worth what the Broncos are paying him, but, prior to last season, he had never earned more than a middling overall grade from PFF for a season, nor had he ever played more than 420 snaps in a season, so he’s not a guarantee to repeat the best season of his career. Either way, Jones should have a significant role as a starter alongside Dre’Mont Jones.

The Broncos didn’t retain reserve Shamar Stephen (393 snaps), but they will bring back fellow reserves Mike Purcell (361 snaps) and DeShawn Williams (386 snaps). Purcell is strictly a base package nose tackle and has just a 3.3% career pressure rate, but he’s earned above average grades from PFF for his run defense in three straight seasons and the Broncos won’t need him to play much more than the limited role he’s played in recent years. Going into his age 31 season, there’s some possibility his run defense drops off, but he has a good chance to remain a useful rotational player.

Williams, meanwhile, is more of a pass rusher than a run stopper (career 7.7% pressure rate), but he declined across the board in 2021 and finished below average on PFF, after a surprise breakout year on 436 snaps in 2020. Williams played just 57 career snaps between going undrafted in 2015 and his 2020 breakout season, so there was always skepticism that he would be able to repeat that performance. Now going into his age 30 season, he has a little bounce back potential, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he kept struggling, especially against the run.

The Broncos also have some young prospects competing for reserve roles, as they drafted Eyloma Uwazurike in the 4th round and Matt Henningsen in the 6th round in this past draft and have 2020 3rd round pick McTelvin Agim. Agim has shown nothing in two years in the league, struggling mightily across just 231 career snaps, and the selection of two defensive linemen in this year’s draft isn’t a good sign for Agim’s long-term chances, but he still theoretically has upside. None of the young players figure to see significant action early in the season, but they could be forced into a larger role by injury. This group will miss Shelby Harris, but it’s still not a bad group overall.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Off ball linebacker is the position where the Broncos were the most affected by injury last season, as every down linebackers Josey Jewell and AJ Johnson both played at a high level when on the field, but were limited to 82 snaps in two games and 323 snaps in six games respectively. Both were free agents this off-season and the Broncos only retained Jewell, replacing Johnson with ex-Eagle Alex Singleton. A late bloomer who didn’t play a defensive snap between going undrafted in 2015 and his first career defensive action in 2020, Singleton has plenty of tackles over the past two seasons (257 total), but he struggles mightily in coverage and has only earned middling overall grades from PFF in both seasons, despite his high tackle totals.

Singleton was only signed to a 1-year deal worth 1.115 million, so it’s possible he could see some competition from the Broncos’ reserve linebackers, who were forced into larger roles last season in the absence of Jewell and Johnson. Baron Browning led this group with 528 snaps played last season, doing so in just 10 games, and he held up pretty well for a third round rookie, earning a middling grade from PFF. He will probably be a reserve, but has the best shot of anyone to push Singleton for a starting role.

Justin Strnad (314 snaps) and Jonas Griffith (255 snaps) also played significant roles for this team down the stretch. Griffith, undrafted in 2020, flashed as a run stuffer in his first career action, but didn’t hold up as well in coverage and would be a projection to a larger role, so I wouldn’t expect a significant snap total from him, while Strnad, a 5th round pick in 2020, struggled mightily in the first significant action of his career and would not seem to be a strong candidate for a larger role. Still, with Browning in the mix as a reserve option, the Broncos have better linebacker depth than most teams.

Josey Jewell, meanwhile, re-signed on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal this off-season, so he should be locked into his role as an every down linebacker. If Jewell plays like he did last season before he got hurt, when he was PFF’s 7th ranked off ball linebacker across the first two weeks of the season, then he’ll be a steal at that price. While that’s unlikely, as he’s never shown that over the course of a full season, even if he plays like he did in 2020 he should be a good value.

In 2020, he finished 17th overall among off ball linebackers on PFF and played the 14th most snaps by an off ball linebacker with 1,011, showing himself to be the kind of linebacker who can hold up in coverage and against the run. It’s concerning that he’s coming off of a significant injury, but he had missed just one game in three seasons prior to last season and is still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, so he isn’t a major injury risk. He elevates an overall middling linebacking corps, albeit one with above average depth.

Grade: B

Secondary

With Von Miller no longer with the team, the best player on this defense is probably safety Justin Simmons, who has consistently been one of the best players in the league at his position over the past three seasons, finishing 1st, 9th, and 18th among safeties on PFF over the past three seasons respectively. The 2016 3rd round pick also finished in the top-30 among safeties in two of his first three seasons in the league too, before breaking out as an elite safety in 2019. Still only going into his age 29 season, having not missed a game in four seasons, Simmons should remain one of the top safeties in the league again in 2022 and could be even better than in 2021, which was actually a down year compared to 2019 and 2020.

Kareem Jackson was once an elite safety alongside Simmons, finishing 5th, 8th, and 6th at his position on PFF in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively, 2018 with the Texans and then 2019 and 2020 with the Broncos, but he’s getting up there in age, going into his age 34 season, and dropped off significantly in 2021, finishing as PFF’s 88th ranked safety out of 98 eligible. As a result, Jackson had to take a paycut down to 2 million this off-season and he may not even be guaranteed his starting spot.

Caden Sterns was the third safety as a 5th round rookie last season and, while he was nondescript on 311 snaps, the Broncos may view him as a future starter and he could take Jackson’s starting job with a strong pre-season. The Broncos also used a 5th round pick on Jamar Johnson last year and a 4th round pick on Delarrin Turner-Yell in this year’s draft, but Turner-Yell would likely be overmatched in significant playing time as a rookie, while Johnson didn’t get on the field for a defensive snap as a rookie, so it’s unlikely either plays a big role this season. Jackson is the favorite to keep his job and may have some bounce back potential, but he also could decline even more or he could cede his starting job to an inexperienced young player.

At cornerback, the Broncos made a couple changes, with a pair of players who played significant roles last season, Kyle Fuller (719 snaps) and Bryce Callahan (504 snaps), no longer with the team. Fuller struggled mightily last season though, finishing 127th out of 134 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, so losing him will be addition by subtraction, while the Broncos made a lateral move to replace Callahan with K’Waun Williams, signed as a free agent from the 49ers on a 2-year, 5.2 million dollar deal.

Like Callahan, Williams is an undersized and injury prone cornerback who excels on the slot, where the 5-9 185 pounder has played 86.6% of his career snaps. Williams never played in all 16 games once in eight seasons in the league and has missed 38 games total in his career, but he’s also earned an average or better grade from PFF in every season. Going into his age 31 season, there’s some concern that he’s coming off of a career worst grade from PFF in 2021, only earning a middling grade across 647 snaps, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining, but he also could remain a solid slot option for at least another season.

The Broncos didn’t replace Fuller, so, instead, they’ll be hoping they can get a healthier season from starting cornerback Ronald Darby, who missed 6 games last season. That’s probably wishful thinking though, as Darby has been injury prone throughout his career like Williams and Callahan, missing 29 games in 7 seasons in the league, including 26 over the past 5 seasons, while only playing in every game once. Darby is generally an above average player when healthier, finishing above average on PFF in 5 of 7 seasons in the league, but he’s also struggled through injuries in the past, resulting in some poor play on the field, especially in 2019, when he was PFF’s 129th ranked cornerback out of 135 eligible. He’s talented, but not the most reliable player.

If Darby misses time, he’ll likely be replaced by 2020 3rd round pick Michael Ojemudia, but he struggled mightily across 852 snaps as a rookie, finishing 114th out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, before only playing 85 snaps last season. He could face competition from 4th round rookie Damarri Mathis for the top reserve outside cornerback role, but Mathis also would likely struggle if he had to play significant snaps as a rookie.

Williams, meanwhile, will likely be backed up by 2020 undrafted free agent Essang Bassey, who struggled across 382 snaps as a rookie, before playing just 11 snaps last season. The Broncos also signed veteran Blessuan Austin, who struggled 16 games with the Jets from 2019-2020, but struggled so much in 2020 that he played just 149 snaps in 2021. The Broncos have questionable depth for a team with injury prone starters.

The Broncos’ best cornerback and de facto #1 cornerback will likely be Patrick Surtain, who they selected 9th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Surtain joined a group of veteran cornerbacks and only played 16 snaps in week one, but moved into the starting lineup week two and started the rest of the way except one game he missed, earning a slightly above average grade from PFF across 900 snaps in the process.

Surtain has the upside to be better in year two and a big breakout year is certainly a possibility, given his immense upside, still only in his age 22 season. There are some questions in this secondary, with Williams and Darby being injury prone, Kareem Jackson coming to the end of his career, and the depth being questionable, but Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons lead a group that has the upside to be above average if enough things go right.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Broncos had one of the worst special teams units in the league last season, finishing 30th in special teams DVOA. Kicker Brandon McManus and punter Sam Martin had solid seasons, but they didn’t have a single core special teamer finish in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF and their return game was among the worst in the league, especially their kickoff return unit, which ranked dead last with just 16.2 yards per return on the season.

The Broncos did add Montrell Washington, who scored five times in his collegiate career, albeit against underwhelming competition at Samford, but, aside from that, not much has changed in this group, with the Broncos still lacking any high level core special teamers. Especially if Washington doesn’t make much of an impact as a rookie, this could remain among the worst special teams units in the league this season and it could be tough for Washington to make an impact if he doesn’t get help from his supporting cast.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Broncos were a decent team last season, despite being one of the most injury affected teams in the league. This season, they should be healthier and they get a big upgrade under center with Russell Wilson replacing Teddy Bridgewater. Their defense probably won’t be as good this season, because former head coach Vic Fangio got the most out of that unit and is no longer with the team, but their offense should be a lot better and could be one of the best in the league, led by new coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was previously the offensive coordinator in Green Bay.

The Broncos are a legitimate contender, but unfortunately they play in the much tougher AFC and share a division with two of the best teams in the league in the Chargers and Chiefs, as well as another playoff contender in the Raiders. The Broncos are well-positioned to at least get a wild card berth, but they’ll have a hard time getting through the loaded AFC in the playoffs. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Broncos should be a better team this season with Russell Wilson providing a significant upgrade under center, but the Broncos figure to regress on defense and it’s a tough numbers game for a wild card spot in the AFC, in the toughest division in football, with at least the Chiefs and Chargers being significantly better than the Broncos.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West

Atlanta Falcons 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Falcons had the option to completely rebuild. Coming off of a 4-12 season the year before, the Falcons got the 4th overall pick in a talented quarterback draft and could have chosen a successor for Matt Ryan, who was going into his 14th season with the Falcons in 2021. Had they taken someone like Mac Jones or Justin Fields, they could have potentially had a long-term quarterback of the future and one at an inexpensive cost, very important for a team that has lacked financial flexibility in free agency for years.

The Falcons also probably could have traded Matt Ryan for a first round pick in an off-season where a slightly younger, but arguably less accomplished at the time Matt Stafford went for two first round picks. Instead, they picked an in-between approach, using the 4th overall pick to get Matt Ryan an explosive young receiver in Kyle Pitts, but then turning around and trading his long-time top target Julio Jones to the Titans a couple months after the draft for a 2022 draft pick.

The Julio Jones trade looked like a smart move in a vacuum. They were able to secure a 2022 2nd round pick for a player who was going into his age 32 season, an age when many elite wide receivers see significant drop offs, and who had become increasingly injury prone in recent years. That move looked even better when Jones bottomed out with a 31/434/1 slash line in 10 games in his lone season in Tennessee and now remains unsigned as a free agent.

However, it was a weird combination of moves to keep an aging quarterback instead of trading him at the highest his value would likely ever be again, a move presumably made because the Falcons felt they could compete in 2021, and then trading away his long-time top target, which is a rebuilding move that doesn’t give them nearly the same financial flexibility as replacing Matt Ryan with a quarterback on a rookie contract would have.

The result in 2021 was a Falcons team that went just 7-10 and that was even worse than their record suggested, as their 7 wins all came by 8 points or fewer against non-playoff qualifiers, while their 10 losses came by an average of 17.9 points per game, with just two of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer, both also against non-playoff qualifiers. Essentially, they didn’t play a competitive game against an above average opponent all season. Their efficiency ratings were all below average across the board as well, as they finished 24th, 25th, 22nd, and 29th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and overall efficiency, and it’s not even like they suffered a ridiculously high amount of injuries, actually having the 3rd fewest adjusted games lost in the league.

This off-season, the Falcons seemed like they were just going to run back the same team, once again without the cap space to make major upgrades in free agency. There were no real rumors early in the off-season that the Falcons would look to move on from Ryan and when Washington traded two third round picks for Carson Wentz, an inferior and more expensive quarterback, it didn’t seem like the Falcons intended to move Ryan.

However, the Falcons apparently spent the early off-season flirting with trading for Deshaun Watson and then when he went to Cleveland, the Falcons decided to trade Ryan instead of trying to repair the relationship with him and got just a third round pick for him from the Colts, with most teams out of the market for a quarterback at this point in the off-season. The Falcons interest in Watson made sense, but it’s tough to understand why they didn’t trade Matt Ryan earlier in the off-season when there were more available suitors if they knew there was a strong likelihood they’re going to be moving on from him at some point this off-season.

Even more puzzling was the Falcons hanging on to him for 2021, a highly forgettable campaign, rather than trading him for more of a return a year ago, only to then sell him when his value was at its lowest. Making matters even worse, this was a much worse quarterback draft than a year ago. The Falcons wisely didn’t waste their 8th overall pick on one of the quarterbacks from this year’s draft, instead signing Marcus Mariota as a veteran stopgap and reclamation project and then using a third round pick on University of Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder, a developmental prospect who needs a lot of work, but who could develop into a starter long-term.

Mariota reunites with his former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, now the head coach of the Falcons, but it’s a little surprising Smith wanted to bring Mariota in, considering he only overlapped as coordinator with Mariota as starting quarterback for the six starts Mariota made to start the 2019 season, when he played some of the worst football of his career and led the Titans to a 2-4 start, only to see the team go 9-4 the rest of the way in route to an AFC Championship game appearance.

Mariota has had better years and even won a playoff game, but he was never more than a middling starting quarterback in Tennessee and he never made all 16 starts. He spent the past two seasons attempting just 20 passes as one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league with the Raiders and he deserves another chance as a starter, but he’s a pretty low upside option who will be a serviceable starter at best. Mariota is good enough to win games when he has talent around him, but he’s not in a favorable situation on this Falcons team.

Whether through injury or ineffectiveness, Mariota is likely to cede starts to Ridder at some point this season, even if it’s just the Falcons wanting to get a look at him in a few otherwise meaningless starts late in the season. Ridder will likely be overmatched in year one though, leaving Mariota, by default, as their best option for 2022. Even in a best case scenario, Mariota figures to be a downgrade from Matt Ryan, who, even though he had declined from his peak form, still finished as PFF’s 18th ranked quarterback last season, on an otherwise hapless Falcons team.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

In addition to the quarterback downgrade, the Falcons also had a tough situation in the receiving corps this off-season. When Julio Jones was traded, Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley were supposed to be the focus of their receiving corps long-term, but, while Pitts had a strong rookie season, Ridley was limited to just a 31/281/2 slash line in five games last season before missing the rest of the season for personal reasons. The Falcons were expecting to get Ridley back for 2022, but instead he got suspended for the entire season for gambling. Making matters worse, Russell Gage, who was their top wide receiver last season in the absence of Ridley with a 66/770/4 slash line, signed with the Buccaneers this off-season.

With Jones, Ridley, and Gage all gone, Falcons’ top returning wide receiver is Olamide Zaccheaus, a 2019 undrafted free agent who finished last season with a 31/406/3 slash line in the first significant action of his career, so the Falcons had to essentially rebuild their receiving corps from scratch this off-season. The Falcons made a big investment in their receiving corps when they used their 8th overall pick on USC wide receiver Drake London, who gives them another promising young receiver along with Kyle Pitts who the Falcons can hopefully build their receiving corps around long-term. However, aside from taking London, the Falcons mostly just added bottom of the roster types in free agency and will hope to have found some diamonds in the rough and that they get better than expected play from this group.

Veterans Damiere Byrd, Bryan Edwards, Auden Tate, and Geronimo Allison were all added this off-season and they all have some experience, but the highest receiving yardage total from any of them, across a combined 19 seasons in the league, came from Damiere Byrd when he had just a 47/604/1 slash line in 2020. That production mostly came on volume too, as he had just a 1.29 yards per route run average for that season, which quickly dropped to 0.84 in a 26/329/1 season with the Bears in 2021. In total, the 7-year veteran averages just 1.09 yards per route run for his career and, now going into his age 29 season, it’s unlikely he has any untapped upside.

Bryan Edwards probably has the most upside of the newcomers, as he was a 3rd round pick just a couple years ago in 2020 and had a decently productive second season in the league, posting a 34/571/3 slash line, after a 11/193/1 slash line as a rookie. He wasn’t particularly efficient last season though, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run, and his production was mostly the result of being forced into action in a thin receiving corps. With the Raiders finding upgrades this off-season, Edwards was shipped off to the Falcons for just a late round pick. He theoretically has the upside to still develop into a solid starter, but he hasn’t shown that yet and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never panned out.

Auden Tate also has some upside, as the 2018 7th round pick had a 40/575/1 slash line with 1.41 yards per route run in 2019 and has a 1.35 yards per route run average for his career, but he’s been buried on the Bengals depth chart the past two seasons, totaling just 17 catches. The Bengals have the best wide receiver depth chart in the NFL, so it’s not exactly a knock on Tate that he couldn’t earn more playing time in the past two seasons, and he still has upside, only going into his age 25 season, but he’s essentially just a flyer for the Falcons.

Allison, meanwhile, was a decent reserve receiver with the Packers from 2016-2019, but never caught more than 34 passes in a season and hasn’t caught a pass since 2019, opting out in 2020 and unable to climb the Lions’ weak wide receiver depth chart in 2021. Once again in a weak wide receiver depth chart, Allison has opportunity, but isn’t even a lock to make the final roster. Frank Darby, a 2021 6th round pick, could also be in the mix for playing time, despite just one rookie year catch. The Falcons will be relying on a rookie #1 wide receiver and a bunch of question marks behind him on the depth chart.

Given the state of the Falcons’ wide receivers, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if tight end Kyle Pitts leads the team in receiving for the second straight year, after posting a 68/1026/1 slash line as a rookie. Pitts benefitted from the 5th most targets in the league by a tight end with 110, but his 2.02 yards per route run average also ranked 5th at his position and he averaged 9.33 yards per target on a team that otherwise averaged 6.67 yards per pass attempt.

Rookie tight ends usually take a year at least to adapt to the NFL, but Pitts is no ordinary tight end, becoming the highest draft player at his position ever and playing more than two thirds of his snaps in the slot or lined up out wide as a rookie. His blocking could use some work, but he has a sky high upside, not even turning 22 until October, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him take another step forward in year two, even with suspect quarterback play. He looks like he’ll be one of the best receiving tight ends in the league for years to come and he has the upside to be one of the best receivers in the league regardless of position.

With Pitts playing a lot of wide receiver as a rookie, backup tight ends Hayden Hurst (409 snaps) and Lee Smith (310 snaps) both saw significant action, but neither were retained this off-season. Hurst was underwhelming, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run and having limited success as a blocker, so he can be replaced pretty easily by free agent acquisition Anthony Firkser. Firkser isn’t much of a blocker, but has a solid 1.47 yards per route run average as a reserve in five seasons in the league, with his best season coming in 2020 when Arthur Smith was his offensive coordinator in Tennessee, posting a 39/387/1 slash line on 1.67 yards per route run. Firkser figures to at least have somewhat of a passing game role, given the lack of other options on this team.

The Falcons will miss the now retired Lee Smith though, as he was an above average blocker and the Falcons don’t have a clear replacement, with bottom of the roster talent Parker Hesse currently penciled in as the 3rd tight end. Even in a best case scenario where Pitts takes a step forward, London has a strong rookie year, and several others exceed expectations, it’s hard to see this being a significantly above average receiving corps and the downside is enormous, given their lack of proven pass catchers.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

With all of the problems the Falcons had in the receiving corps last season, they relied heavily on their lead running back Cordarrelle Patterson as a receiver out of the backfield. A converted wide receiver who can line up all over the formation, Patterson had the best receiving total of his 9-year career last season in his first season as a full-time lead running back, posting a 52/548/5 slash line. His 2.24 yards per route run average also well exceeded his career average of 1.39 yards per route run.

Patterson actually wasn’t that impressive as a runner though, taking 153 carries for a 4.04 YPC and 6 touchdowns, while ranking 40th out of 50 eligible running backs with a 45% carry success rate, and now he heads into his age 31 season, an age where skill position players, especially running backs, tend to see a significant drop off. The Falcons don’t have a better option, so I would still expect him to be the lead back, but I wouldn’t expect an efficient rushing season from him and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his receiving production drop off as well, given his age and the fact that he is coming off of the best receiving year of his career.

Despite Patterson being a shaky option as a lead back, the Falcons didn’t do much to upgrade their backfield this off-season, replacing veteran backup Mike Davis with a comparable veteran in Damien Williams and using a 5th round pick on BYU running back Tyler Allgeier. Williams averaged 4.49 YPC on 111 carries as the de facto lead back for the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in 2019, but he opted out of the 2020 season and, upon his return, was ineffective as a reserve with the Bears, while receiving just 56 touches in 12 games.

Williams has just 334 carries in eight seasons in the league with an underwhelming 4.18 YPC average and now heads into his age 30, so he’s an underwhelming option, even as a #2 running back. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him surpassed by the rookie Allgeier at some point this season. Fifth round running backs tend to have more of a rookie year impact than fifth round picks at any other position, so Allgeier could provide some value for the Falcons in year one, but the fact that he has a chance to earn a big role says more about the rest of this position group than it says about him.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Falcons also had struggles on the offensive line last season. They were an above average run blocking team, but finished as PFF’s 2nd worst ranking offensive line in pass protection, leading to Matt Ryan being pressured at a 39.7% rate, 6th highest in the NFL, despite a faster than average time to throw. Despite that, the Falcons didn’t make any changes upfront and will bring back the same starting five offensive linemen. They may benefit from continuity, but this group also missed just two games combined all last season, so they benefited from great health and continuity and still produced poor results.

The player who most needs to improve is left guard Jalen Mayfield, a 2021 3rd round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 83rd out of 90 eligible guards on PFF in overall grade, with his worst play coming in pass protection, finishing 88th among eligible guards in pass protection grade. He could be better in year two, even if it’s only by default, but there’s no guarantee he ever develops into a capable starter. If he continues to struggle, he could lose his job to one of the two veteran reserves the Falcons added this off-season, Germain Ifedi and Elijah Wilkinson.

Ifedi and Wilkinson have primarily played tackle in their career, but 24 of Ifedi’s 83 career starts came at guard, while Wilkinson has played 7 of his 27 career starts at guard, so they have some experience on the inside. Neither has ever been more than a middling starter in their career though, regardless of their position, and both have also struggled throughout long stretches of their career, so neither would be a strong starting job and would likely only see action in a worst case scenario where Mayfield doesn’t improve or injuries strike at other positions.

The Falcons also used a 4th round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Drew Dalman, who only played 68 snaps as a rookie, which came at center, but he could also push for a role at guard, where he saw some action in college. Dalman could also potentially push to start at center if incumbent Matt Hennessy struggles. Hennessy, a third round pick in 2020, broke out as a high level run blocker last season, finishing 3rd among centers on PFF in run blocking grade, but he finished 34th out of 41 eligible in pass protection, after struggling in both aspects on 225 snaps as a rookie. His run blocking is a significant asset, but his pass protection may never develop and, if he slips as a run blocker, he could become a liability overall.

The other three starting jobs are likely all locked in, with Jake Matthews, Chris Lindstrom, and Kaleb McCary remaining the starters at left tackle, right guard, and right tackle respectively. All three are also former first round picks. McCary has mostly been a disappointment thus far, making 45 starts in three seasons in the league, but never being more than a middling starter and generally struggling in pass protection. He’s going into his age 27 season now, so he’s running out of time to break out as the kind of player who was worth a first round pick. The Falcons seem to be underwhelmed with him as well, declining his 5th year option for 2023 which would have guaranteed him 13.202 million, but they also don’t really have a good replacement, so he figures to keep his job for at least one more season.

Matthews and Lindstrom, on the other hand, have developed into above average starters. Matthews was drafted back in 2014 and has been an above average starter for a while, earning above average grades from PFF in every season except his rookie year, while making 128 of a possible 129 starts in his career. He’s going into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of declining yet, finishing 38th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2021. He’ll likely remain an above average starter for at least another season.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, was a first round selection in 2019, breaking out with a 21st ranked season among guards on PFF in 2020, after an injury plagued rookie year. Lindstrom then improved even further in year three in 2021, finishing 6th among guards on PFF and, still only going into his age 25 season, he looks likely to become one of the better guards in the league for years to come. Development is not always linear and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lindstrom slip up a little bit compared to his dominant 2021 campaign, but he should remain an above average starter at the very least. Matthews and Lindstrom elevate this offensive line, but this still looks like a middling group at best overall.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

One of the Falcons’ biggest weaknesses for years has been their pass rush, as they somehow haven’t had more than 39 sacks in a season since 2004. In 2021, they had a league worst 18 sacks and their edge defenders were particularly a weakness, as they didn’t have a single edge defender who earned even an average grade from PFF and only one edge defender had more than a single sack, with Dante Fowler leading the team with just 4.5 sacks.

The Falcons overhauled this group this off-season, with just one of the seven edge defenders who played a snap for them last season returning for 2022, but that doesn’t necessarily mean this is going to be a significantly better group. They used a pair of draft picks on the position, taking Arnold Ebiketie in the second round and DeAngelo Malone in the third round, and, while they could develop into above average players long-term, they could easily struggle to make an impact in year one.

On top of that, their only veteran addition was former Giant Lorenzo Carter, who they added on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar contract this off-season. He’s a solid run stopper, but has been pretty underwhelming as a pass rusher in his career, with 14.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 49 career games (33 starts). Now in his age 27 season, he’s likely reached his peak, so I don’t expect him to be significantly better with his new team.

Their only holdover is 2021 5th round pick Adetokunbo Ogundeji. He could be better in year two, but he was a big liability on 527 rookie year snaps, finishing 107th among 129 eligible edge defenders on PFF, especially struggling as a pass rusher, finishing dead last eligible edge defenders on PFF in pass rush grade and managing a pathetic 4.2% pressure rate. He should only play an early down role, even in a thin position group. The Falcons are counting on big contributions from rookies, but may not get it. They should be better by default compared to last year’s group, which was arguably the worst in the league, but this is still a big position of weakness.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

One veteran the Falcons could have moved on from this off-season and chose not to was interior defender Grady Jarrett. Jarrett was a dominant interior defender in his prime, finishing 15th, 6th, 4th, and 16th respectively from 2017-2020, but their decision to retain him doesn’t seem to fit with the overall direction of this team. Jarrett dropped off significantly last season, falling to 33rd among interior defenders on PFF, and, while he’s still only going into his age 29 season and could easily bounce back in 2022, he’ll be in his 30s by the time the Falcons are ready to be competitive again.

Trading him for a draft pick ahead of a 16.5 million dollar salary in the final year of his contract in 2022 would have made sense, but the Falcons instead opted to keep him on a 3-year, 50.47 million dollar extension, which makes him the 7th highest paid interior defender in the league. He may have bounce back potential, but if he doesn’t bounce back or continues to decline, Jarrett will prove to be an overpay on that extension. Even if he does bounce back, Jarrett will likely be on the decline by the time this team is back in contention, with the Falcons starting on what figures to be a multi-year rebuild.

Jarrett was the Falcons’ only interior defender to earn even an average grade from PFF last season and they didn’t make any notable additions to this group, instead hoping to get better play from their young players at the position. Marlon Davidson was a 2nd round pick by the Falcons in 2020, but has played very little thus far in his career, playing just 402 snaps total in 19 career games, while showing very little when on the field as well. He still has upside, only in his age 24 season, and he’ll get significantly more action in 2022 out of necessity, but his career is off to a very unimpressive start and he’s no guarantee to ever develop into an even average starter.

Davidson will compete for playing time with 2021 5th round pick Ta’Quon Graham, who finished 117th out of 144 eligible interior defenders as a rookie on 309 snaps, and Anthony Rush, a 2019 undrafted free agent who is already on his 7th team and who struggled on a career high 250 snaps in 2021. The 6-5 350 pound Rush is the only true nose tackle the Falcons have, so he figures to at least have a base package role in the Falcons’ 3-4 defense, but he is unlikely to see significant more action than he did last season and he could easily continue struggling, even in a limited role. Outside of Jarrett, this is a very unproven group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Falcons had a pair of linebackers both play over 1,000 snaps last season, but Foyesade Oluokun (1,148 snaps) and Deion Jones (1,070 snaps) both struggled mightily, finishing 69th and 88th respectively out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF. As a result, the Falcons have tried to overhaul this group this off-season. Jones is still on the roster, but there is reportedly a strong likelihood he will be traded or released at some point this off-season and Oluokun was not retained as a free agent. Meanwhile, veteran Rashaan Evans was added in free agency and Montana State’s Troy Andersen was added in the second round of the draft.

Even with Andersen and Evans being added and Jones coming off of a terrible season, it is a bit surprising that the Falcons are trying to move on from Jones. He’s still only going into his age 28 season and was once one of the Falcons’ best defensive players for years, with his best season coming in 2017, when he finished 4th among off ball linebackers on PFF, and a 16th ranked finish as recently as 2020. Jones’ salary is also fully guaranteed for 2022, with a 4 million dollar roster bonus having already been paid out, and, while the Falcons would get a little bit of cap relief by cutting him after June 1st and could get a little more if his contract has offset language, he would still be on the cap for 2023 in that scenario and the Falcons would still have to pay most of his salary in 2022 to play for another team.

The Falcons would obviously love to trade him, even if it’s only for a swap of late round picks, as they would get out of his salary and would get actual cap relief in that scenario, but it’s unclear if anyone would want to take on his 9.64 million dollar salary for 2022, even if he does have bounce back potential. It doesn’t help their chances of trading him that he is coming off of off-season shoulder surgery and that teams know the Falcons are likely to cut him if he can’t be traded, making him available at a much cheaper price on the open market.

In addition to Jones’ down year last season, the Falcons reportedly are unhappy with Jones’ leadership, which is why they are looking to move on from him, but Andersen is only a rookie, while Rashaan Evans has struggled across the past three seasons, including a 73rd ranked finished among 94th eligible off ball linebackers on PFF on 445 snaps in 2021, so the Falcons would have a very shaky position group if they moved on from Jones. Especially given that they’re paying him either way, the Falcons should strongly consider keeping Jones for at least another season, unless they can find a trade partner.

If Jones is traded, Mykal Walker would become the top reserve and it’s possible he could carve out a significant role, especially if Andersen and/or Evans struggle, which is likely. A 2020 4th round pick, Walker has shown promise in two seasons in the league, but has played just 581 snaps total and would be a projection to a larger role. With or without Jones, this is a questionable group, but Jones is just one season removed from an above average season, which is way more than you can say about the rest of the group.

Grade: C

Secondary

With the Falcons’ defense struggling as a whole last season, by far their best player was top cornerback AJ Terrell, who was one of the best players in the league at his position last season, finishing as PFF’s 4th ranked cornerback. He also ranked 2nd in coverage snaps per reception allowed with 18.7 and he allowed just a 43.9% completion on 66 targets. In total, he allowed just 200 yards receiving, a ridiculous average of just 3.03 yards per attempt, and he also picked off 3 passes to 3 touchdowns allowed, with 13 pass deflections.

Terrell is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, after a middling rookie season in 2020, but the 16th overall pick has a ton of talent and is only going into his age 24 season, so it shouldn’t be a surprise at all if he develops into one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come. Even if he does, he could take a little bit of a step back in 2022 after such a dominant 2021, but he should still have a strong season. The problem is none of the Falcons’ other cornerbacks earned even an average grade from PFF, so opposing passing games could easily avoid having to throw on Terrell last season.

The Falcons attempted to fix that problem by signing veteran Casey Hayward in free agency. If Hayward plays like he did a season ago, when he was the only cornerback in the league with more snaps per reception allowed (21.0 snaps) than Terrell, he and Terrell could be one of the best cornerback duos in the league this season, but Hayward is going into his age 33 season, so a significant decline is definitely a strong possibility.

Even if Hayward does decline though, he was PFF’s 16th ranked cornerback a year ago, his 7th finish in the top-16 in 10 seasons in the league, so he could still remain a solid starter even not at his best. He should be an obvious upgrade on Fabian Moreau, who finished as PFF’s 99th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible as the Falcons’ #2 cornerback last season. Hayward should be a good value on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal, even if he was a weird signing for a team otherwise rebuilding.

Hayward’s additions leaves holdovers Isaiah Oliver, Darren Hall, and Richie Grant competing for the 3rd cornerback job, with the other two then settling in as reserves. Oliver was a starter to begin last season and made 28 starts between 2019 and 2020, but he struggled for most of his time as a starter and had his 2021 season end after four games due to a knee injury. The Falcons brought the 2018 2nd round pick back as a free agent after his rookie contract expired this off-season, but he was only brought back on a 1-year, 2.385 million dollar deal, so he won’t be guaranteed to even be the #3 cornerback.

Hall and Grant were rookies last season who saw action in Oliver’s absence, playing 283 snaps and 276 snaps respectively. Hall struggled though, finishing 129th among 134 eligible cornerbacks, not entirely surprising for a 4th round rookie. He could be better in year two, but maybe only by default and he’s no guarantee to ever develop into a solid starter. Grant, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick last year and wasn’t terrible as a rookie, but could play more at safety in year two, unless he locks down the primary slot cornerback job.

At safety, Grant would be replacing veteran Duron Harmon, who was not retained this off-season, after finishing 77th out of 98 eligible safeties in 17 starts last season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Grant were to replace him and be a noticeable upgrade. The only addition the Falcons made to this group this off-season was veteran free agent addition Dean Marlowe. Marlowe played 700 snaps with the Lions last season, but was underwhelming and, prior to last season, he was a career special teamer who had never played more than 230 defensive snaps in a season. Going into his age 30 season, he would be a very underwhelming starting option.

Holdovers Erik Harris (702 snaps) and Jaylinn Hawkins (462 snaps) will also compete for the starting jobs, even though both were mediocre last season. Harris had a larger role last season and is the more experienced player, with 42 career starts, but he’s also going into his age 32 season and has never been more than a middling starter, while Hawkins is a 2020 4th round pick who at least has upside. Hawkins is probably the favorite for one of the starting jobs, but this will be an open competition at an underwhelming position group. Terrell and Hayward are a talented cornerback duo, but this is a top heavy group with concerns at safety and concerns behind Terrell and Hayward on the cornerback depth chart.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Falcons also had a below average special teams unit last season, ranking 22nd in special teams DVOA. Kicker Younghoe Koo is one of the best in the league, but the Falcons struggled in the punting and return game and had just one player (Keith Smith) finish in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF. The Falcons did find a new punter this off-season, but Dom Maggio is just an undrafted rookie and, aside from that, not much has changed on the Falcons’ special teams unit.

The Falcons will be hoping they can get more out of return man Avery Williams in his second season in the league, with their only other option being to overload feature back Cordarrelle Patterson with even more touches by using him on special teams as well, and Keith Smith remains their only high level core special teamer, with the Falcons largely hoping for contributions out of rookies at that position. This probably won’t be a horrible special teams unit in 2022, but they figure to be below average again.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Falcons were just 7-10 a year ago and they were even worse than their record suggested, with all their wins being close victories over non-playoff qualifiers and every game they played against a playoff caliber team resulting in a blowout loss. Even if they had just run back the same team as a year ago, they would likely struggle making it back to 7 wins, but the Falcons also lost a significant amount of talent this off-season, most notably long-time franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, with this team undergoing a teardown and rebuild.

A teardown and rebuild is much needed for this team and they didn’t have a clear path to competing for a playoff spot in 2022 anyway, even if they didn’t rebuild, but the result is not going to be pretty in the short-term, with this looking like one of the worst teams in the league on paper, unsurprising considering their roster has the 2nd lowest average annual salary of any team in the league, only ahead of the also rebuilding Bears. The Falcons could easily compete for the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which could be the goal for a team that now needs to find a new franchise quarterback. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Falcons still look like one of the worst teams in the league.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in NFC South

Los Angeles Chargers 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

The Chargers struck gold with the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, finding a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. Herbert actually wasn’t a starter right away, but he made his first start in week two of his rookie year as an injury replacement and hasn’t looked back. He finished his rookie season as PFF’s 16th ranked quarterback overall and completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for another 234 yards and 5 touchdowns on 55 carries (4.25 YPC).

Herbert was then even better in year two, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, rushing for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns on 63 carries (4.79 YPC), and finishing as PFF’s 3rd ranked quarterback overall. His interception total might look a little concerning, but he was also the unluckiest quarterback in the league in terms of adjusted interceptions and his adjusted interception rate was 3rd best in the league, only behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Even though he’s only in his age 24 season, Herbert has already established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the entire league.

One thing Herbert hasn’t done yet is lead the Chargers to the post-season, but that hasn’t really been his fault, especially not last season, when he led the Chargers to the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the league. The Chargers ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and 28th in special teams efficiency, but offensive efficiency is more predictive and in terms of weighted overall efficiency they finished last season 10th, making them the 2nd highest ranked team to miss the post-season last season.

Herbert will be eligible for an extension next off-season and he’ll have a good case to push to be the highest paid quarterback in the league, but he’s still on a cheap rookie deal for now and the Chargers took full advantage of that this off-season, being aggressive in adding highly paid players this off-season, particularly on defense, to try to get as much talent around Herbert as possible while he is still cheap. I’ll get into their defensive additions more later, but their offense should remain one of the best in the league and, if they can be significantly improved on defense, the Chargers could easily be one of the better teams in the entire league in 2022.

The Chargers would obviously be in big trouble if Justin Herbert were to miss significant time with injury, but that’s especially true because Herbert’s backup is Chase Daniel, a career backup in his age 36 season who has started just 5 games in 13 seasons in the league. Assuming he can continue to stay healthy, Herbert should be an MVP candidate this season and, even if he doesn’t win it, he’s talented enough and young enough that an MVP is likely in his future.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Chargers didn’t make any big money additions on offense this off-season, but they did use their first round pick to add to their offensive line, taking Boston College’s Zion Johnson 17th overall and immediately plugging him in as the starting right guard. He might not make a huge impact in year one, but he has the upside to be one of the better guards in the league long-term. He’s also the second straight offensive lineman the Chargers have taken in the first round, after taking left tackle Rashawn Slater 13th overall last year, and he actually did make a big impact in year one, finishing as PFF’s 9th ranked offensive tackle in 16 starts. Development is not always linear and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Slater regressed a little bit in year two, but he could also take another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he’s still likely to develop into one of the better left tackles in the league for years to come.

Slater was not the only new starting offensive lineman the Chargers added last off-season, as the Chargers’ offensive line was a big weakness in Herbert’s rookie season and the Chargers rightfully made upgrading it a priority before his second season. Like Slater, the Chargers’ other two additions from last off-season also made a big impact in year one, with center Corey Linsley signing on a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal and finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked center in 2021 and left guard Matt Feiler signing on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and finishing as PFF’s 13th ranked guard. Along with Slater, they were huge upgrades for a team with one of the worst offensive lines in the league in 2020.

Linsley and Feiler are not guaranteed to play quite as well in 2022, but both have a decent chance to and both could still be valuable contributors even if they decline a little. Linsley is going into his age 31 season, but he’s coming off the two best seasons of his career, also finishing 1st among centers on PFF in 2020, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet. Despite only being a 5th round pick in 2014, Linsley has been an above average starter since entering the league, making 115 starts in eight seasons in the league and finishing in the top-7 among centers on PFF five times. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2022, he should remain an above average starter.

Feiler, meanwhile, was a late bloomer, but the 2014 undrafted free agent has been at least a solid starter in all four seasons since becoming a starter in 2018, with 55 starts total in 4 seasons since. Originally a right tackle, Feiler struggled a little bit in his first season at guard in 2020, falling to 36th among guards after finishing 34th and 17th among offensive tackles in 2018 and 2019, but he bounced back in his second year at guard in 2021 and could easily continue that into 2022. He’s going into his age 30 season, which is a bit of a concern, but even if he declines a little bit, he should remain an above average starter.

With Slater, Linsley, and Feiler being added last off-season and Zion Johnson being added this off-season, the only position on this offensive line the Chargers haven’t addressed is right tackle, which remains a position of weakness. The Chargers actually did address the position in free agency two off-seasons ago, signing ex-Packer Bryan Bulaga to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal, but he made just 11 underwhelming starts in two seasons with the Chargers due to injuries, including just a single start in 2021. With no guaranteed money left on his contract, he was predictably released this off-season ahead of his age 33 season, after being paid 19.25 million total over two seasons.

With Bulaga missing most of the 2021 season, Storm Norton was their primary starting right tackle. The 2017 undrafted free agent was mediocre in the first extended starting experience of his career (309 snaps played in his career prior to 2021), but the Chargers didn’t add any competition for him, so he’s likely to remain the starter for 2022, even if he is likely to be a liability. His biggest competition will likely come internally from Trey Pipkins, a 2019 3rd round pick who has shown some promise when on the field in his career, but who has also only played 995 snaps total in three seasons in the league. Pipkins may be an upgrade, but it’s likely whoever wins the right tackle job will be a liability. It’s also a strong possibility that both Norton and Pipkins both see starts at some point this season. This is a very strong offensive line other than the right tackle position.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Like their offensive line, the Chargers rushing attack was also a problem in Herbert’s first season in 2020, as they ranked 30th in the NFL with 3.83 YPC, and the Chargers also improved significantly in that area in 2021, averaging 4.34 YPC, 17th in the NFL. It helped that they had better blocking, but they also got better health from their two best running backs Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. Ekeler and Jackson averaged a combined 4.57 YPC in 2020, but they played just 19 games total with 175 combined carries, forcing #3 back Joshua Kelley into 111 carries, on which he averaged just 3.19 YPC, sinking the team’s average.

In 2021, Ekeler and Jackson missed just three games between them and totaled 274 carries combined, leaving Kelley in his #3 back role, in which the 2020 4th round pick averaged just 3.09 YPC on 33 carries. Ekeler led the way as the feature back, the first season of his career in which he’s been a true feature back for the whole season, and he put together a very impressive season in that role, rushing for 911 yards and 12 touchdowns on 206 carries (4.42 YPC), ranking 12th with a 56% carry success rate, and adding a 70/647/8 slash line with 1.55 yards per route run has a receiver.

SInce entering the NFL, Ekeler has always shown the potential to have that kind of production as a feature back, averaging 4.74 YPC and 2.29 yards per route run in 4 seasons prior to last season, but the 2017 undrafted free agent was a part-time player early in his career and, when given a bigger workload in 2020, he missed 6 games with injury, so it took until his 5th season in the league for him to break out. An undersized back at 5-10 200, there is some concern about consistently giving Ekeler a heavy workload, but he hasn’t been terribly injury prone in his career, missing 9 games total in 5 seasons. Still, the Chargers will likely keep his carry total around 200 or so for the season again, so they can preserve him for a big passing game role and not risk overloading him.

That will leave a good amount of carries for the #2 back and right now it looks like that will be 4th round rookie Isaiah Spiller, who only needs to hold off Joshua Kelley to be the #2 back, with Jackson not being retained in free agency this off-season. Spiller wasn’t highly drafted, but it’s not uncommon for even mid-round running backs to come in and make an impact right away in year one and he could certainly be an effective player on a few carries per game.

The Chargers could also opt to bring Jackson back as a free agent, after he impressed with 5.35 YPC on 68 carries last season, giving the 2018 7th round pick a 5.05 YPC on 206 carries for his career. The Chargers backfield would miss Austin Ekeler in a big way if he missed time because he’s both their best runner and their best receiver out of the backfield, but, if he’s healthy, he gives the Chargers one of the better all-around running backs in the league and the Chargers could have good depth behind him as well, especially if Jackson is retained.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Herbert’s two top wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both surpassed 1,100 yards receiving last season, making them just one of three wide receiver duos to both surpass 1,000 yards and the only one to both surpass 1,100 yards. Respectively, Allen and Williams posted slash lines of 106/1138/6 and 76/1146/9 and ranked 13rd and 12th in the NFL in receiving yards. It definitely helped that Herbert was throwing to them, but Allen and Williams had good seasons in their own right, finishing 23rd and 22nd respectively among wide receivers on PFF in overall grade, and both have track records of success that pre-date Herbert.

Allen is the more veteran of the two, joining the Chargers as a 3rd round pick in 2013. Allen instantly made a big impact, posting his first 1,000 yard season as a rookie, but he had a lot of injury problems early in his career, playing just 38 of a possible 64 games across his first four seasons in the league combined. He always showed #1 wide receiver upside when healthy though, averaging a 93/1102/7 slash line per 16 games with 1.93 yards per route run across those first four seasons, and he’s made good on that upside over the past five seasons, staying much healthier with just three games missed total and surpassing 1,000 yards in four of five seasons, coming up just 8 yards short in the 5th season.

Allen has never been an explosive athlete and has seen his yards per catch average drop to 10.3 over the past two seasons, compared to 12.2 over his first seven seasons, but he’s remained a very effective possession receiver, surpassing 97 catches in each of the past five seasons, while catching a league leading 509 passes across those five seasons combined. He’s going into his age 30 season and he could already be on the decline a little bit, but the fact that he’s not that dependent on athleticism could mean he’ll age better than most wide receivers and, even if he drops off a little bit more in 2022, he should remain an above average wide receiver and should push for another 1,000+ yard season.

Williams, meanwhile, was added as the Chargers 7th overall pick in 2017. He hardly contributed as a rookie, mostly due to injury, and didn’t become a full-time starter until his third season in the league, but he’s averaged 1.81 yards per route run over the past four seasons and has surpassed 1,000 yards in two of the past three seasons since becoming a full-time starter. That includes a career best 1.97 yards per route run in 2021, which led to the Chargers keeping him on a 3-year, 60 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season.

Unlike Allen, Williams does his damage mostly on big plays, catching just 57.8% of the targets thrown to him in his career, including just 58.9% last season, but averaging 16.1 yards per catch with an average depth of target of 14.8 yards. Quarterbacks may complete a low percentage of their passes to him, but they still average 9.64 yards per attempt when targeting him over the past four seasons combined. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, with just three games missed total over the past four seasons, Williams is unlikely to drop off significantly this season, but he might not quite repeat the best season of his career again in 2022.

With Allen and Williams being among the best wide receiver duos in the league, they don’t have much need for a good #3 wide receiver, but if either Allen or Williams missed extended time, incumbent #3 wide receiver Jalen Guyton would be a very underwhelming replacement. Part of it is because he understandably hasn’t gotten a lot of targets even when on the field, but Guyton has averaged just 0.94 yards per route run in three seasons in the league and he has consistently finished well below average on PFF, including a 99th ranked season out of 110 eligible wide receivers in 2021.

Guyton has a good chance to lose the #3 job to 2021 3rd round pick Josh Palmer, who was underwhelming on 457 snaps as a rookie (1.20 yards per route run), but who could take on a larger role in year two. Palmer would likely be an upgrade on Guyton by default, but he too could be overmatched if forced into starting for an extended period of time, so it will be very important to the Chargers for Allen and Williams to continue staying healthy.

The one significant veteran addition the Chargers made to their offense was tight end Gerald Everett, who comes in on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, but he is basically just a replacement for 2021 starting tight end Jared Cook, who finished 4th on the team in receiving behind Williams, Allen, and Ekeler, with a 48/564/4 slash line. A 2017 2nd round pick, Everett has never surpassed 500 yards receiving in five seasons in the league, but he’s also always split playing time with another tight end, never surpassing 63 targets in a season. When given opportunity throughout his career, Everett has been pretty impressive, averaging 1.40 yards per route run, and Jared Cook leaves behind 83 targets, so Everett has a great chance to surpass his career highs in both targets and yardage, on one of the best passing offenses in the league. He’ll probably be an upgrade on the middling Jared Cook, but probably not a significant one.

The Chargers used a 3rd round pick on Tre McKitty in 2021, but he only played 237 snaps, averaged 0.77 yards per route run, and wasn’t trusted to play outside of obvious run blocking situations. He could see a bigger role in year two, but the addition of Everett suggests the Chargers still don’t view McKitty as much more than a blocking tight end. The Chargers do have Donald Parham, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has shown some potential as a receiving tight end in limited action over the past two seasons, averaging 1.31 yards per route run, but he’s not much of a blocker and will likely remain in a situational role. This is a talented receiving corps overall, led by one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While there wasn’t much the Chargers needed to add on offense, they had significant needs on defense and they addressed several with veteran additions on big contracts. Their biggest addition came via trade, sending a 2nd round and a 6th round pick to the Bears for edge defender Khalil Mack, who has 63.9 million over 3 years remaining on his contract. Mack is a Hall-of-Fame caliber player who has been one of the best edge defenders in the league over the past decade or so, beginning his career in Oakland where he had four straight seasons in the top-6 among edge defenders on PFF and then returning two first round picks to the Raiders from Chicago when the Raiders traded him to the Bears ahead of the final year in his rookie deal, right before the start of the 2018 season.

In addition to giving up significant draft capital for him, the Bears also gave Mack a then record 6-year, 141 million dollar extension, but he was arguably still worth it for the Bears, continuing his dominant play from Oakland in his first three seasons in Chicago, finishing 3rd, 13th, and 1st among edge defenders in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. However, Mack is now heading into his age 31 season and is coming off of an injury plagued season in which he played just 315 snaps and did not play at his typical level, so it’s understandable why the rebuilding Bears would trade him to get a significant draft asset and to get out of the rest of the contract.

At the same time, he still has the upside to bounce back and be one of the best edge defenders in the league again in 2022 like he was in 2020, in which case he would be well worth what the Chargers paid to acquire him, between draft compensation and salary, so it’s understandable why the win now Chargers acquired him. Also a dominant run defender, Mack has also totaled 76.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 117 career games.

It’s concerning that he is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of a significant injury, but, prior to last season, he had only missed two games to injury in seven seasons in the league, so he has a good chance to stay healthy for most of the 2022 season. Even if Mack isn’t at his peak form, he still has a good chance to be among the best players in the league at his position this season. He should be an obvious upgrade on the middling Uchenna Nwosu, a now ex-Charger who Mack will be replacing at the edge defender position.

Mack also gives the Chargers a second high-level edge defender, joining 6-year veteran Joey Bosa, who has developed into one of the best players in the league at his position. The 3rd overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Bosa has dominated since entering the league, finishing in the top-9 among edge defenders on PFF in all but one season in the league. Also a good run defender, Bosa has totaled 58 sacks, 75 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate in 79 career games. Durability has been a little bit of a concern for him in his career, as he’s missed at least four games in half of his seasons in the league, but he’s played 16 games in the other three seasons and durability is really the only concern with a proven dominant player who is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season.

Kyler Fackrell, who was their top reserve with 382 snaps played last season, is no longer with the team, but the Chargers did sign Kyle Van Noy, a versatile linebacker who will see some action as an edge defender. Van Noy is heading into his age 32 season, but he was still a solid player on 811 snaps in 2021 and has been a capable run defender, coverage linebacker, and edge rusher (12.9% pressure rate) in his career. He could also see some action as an off ball linebacker. The Chargers also have 2021 4th round pick Chris Rumph as a reserve edge defender option. He only played 176 snaps as a rookie, but he wasn’t bad and could see more action in year two. The Chargers have arguably the best edge defender duo in the league with good depth behind them.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Interior defender was the Chargers’ weakest position group last season, as the only player who saw significant snaps for them at the position who earned even an average grade from PFF was veteran Linval Joseph (550 snaps), who was not retained this off-season as a free agent, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season. The Chargers didn’t make a splash addition at this position like they did by adding Mack on the edge, but they did make several additions to this group this off-season. Sebastian Joseph-Day was their best addition, coming over from the Rams on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal.

Joseph-Day has never played more than 481 snaps in a season, as the 2018 6th round pick spent 2019 and 2020 as mostly a rotational reserve and then, in his first season as more of an every down player in 2021, he went down for the season with an injury after 340 snaps in 7 games. However, he’s shown a lot of promise when on the field, playing at his best against the run, but also adding a decent 5.9% pressure rate for his career, including 3 sacks, 2 hits, and a 6.7% pressure rate in limited action last season.

Joseph-Day’s best season came in 2020, when he played 412 snaps and finished the season as PFF’s 13th ranked interior defender in run defense grade. He’s still a projection to a larger role, but, if he can stay healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was an above average player on a similar snap count to the 48.6 per game he averaged last season before getting hurt. He might not be a huge upgrade on the departed Linval Joseph, but he definitely gives the Chargers a younger option at the position and someone they can build around going forward.

The Chargers other veteran additions are not as promising. Austin Johnson comes over from the Giants on a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal, but that was likely an overpay. Johnson was a 2nd round pick in 2016, but was never more than a reserve in his first five seasons in the league, maxing out with 399 snaps played in 2018 with the Titans, prior to being forced into a much larger role with the Giants in 2021, playing 665 snaps.

Johnson was not bad earlier in his career as a reserve, but proved to be overmatched in a larger role last season, finishing slightly below average on PFF. His salary suggests the Chargers have a big role planned for him, but he’s likely to continue disappointing in that bigger role, like he did last season. He’s not a terrible option, but could easily prove to be a liability, especially as a pass rusher (4.3% career pressure rate).

The Chargers also signed ex-Panther Morgan Fox this off-season, but he’s only a rotational player, struggling on a career high 561 snaps last season, after averaging 363 snaps per season in the previous three seasons. He’s a solid pass rusher (career 8.1% pressure rate) and should have a role in obvious passing situations, but he’s also been a liability against the run throughout his career and generally has been more of a liability as a run defender than an asset as a pass rusher, finishing below average on PFF in three of the past four seasons.

Jerry Tillery has led this position group in snaps played over the past two seasons, playing 747 and 858 respectively, but he’s struggled mightily in that role, finishing 128th out of 139 eligible at his position on PFF in 2020 and 126th out of 146 eligible in 2021. With several players being added to this position group this off-season, I would expect Tillery’s role to be scaled back significantly, which should benefit this defense even if the players taking over his vacated snaps are underwhelming.

Tillery was a first round pick by the Chargers in 2019 and could be much more effective in more of a rotational role, but he also struggled mightily on 354 snaps as a rookie, so he could easily continue struggling even in a scaled back role. Tillery is at his best as a pass rusher, but his career 6.7% pressure rate isn’t nearly enough to make up for how bad he’s been as a run defender, especially considering the Chargers used to regularly line Tillery up as an edge defender, where he had a clearer path to the quarterback. The Chargers will probably primarily use Tillery as a sub package pass rusher, which makes the best use of his skillset, but he’s still unlikely to be a significant asset for this team, even in a best case scenario.

Christian Covington is probably their best returning interior defender, but he also struggled last season, earning a below average grade from PFF across 523 snaps. Covington also struggled on 559 snaps in 2020 with the Bengals, but he’s been better in the past as more of a rotational player and could be useful to the Chargers in a scaled back role this season. Covington is already going into his 8th season in the league, but he’s still only in his age 29 season and has generally held up pretty well as both a run defender and a pass rusher (6.1% pressure rate) in his career, especially when he’s played smaller snap counts. This is a deeper position group than a year ago, but they are primarily only a better group this year by default, compared to last year’s very underwhelming group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The only key player the Chargers lost this off-season that they didn’t really replace is Kyzir White, who played close to an every down role for the Chargers last season (57.6 snaps per games), while making all 17 starts and finishing as PFF’s 24th ranked off ball linebacker in overall grade for the season. The Chargers signed veteran Troy Reeder in free agency and he was solid on 423 snaps in 2020, finishing 37th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but he struggled mightily in a bigger role in 2021, finishing 72nd out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on 682 snaps, and he also struggled in the first action of his career in 2019, so he would be a very shaky starting option. It’s more likely he’ll be a reserve, with holdovers Kenneth Murray and Drue Tranquill likely to be the two starters at the position.

Murray and Tranquill technically split snaps opposite Kyzir White last season, playing 363 snaps and 560 snaps respectively, but it’s more complicated than that, as Murray began the season as an every down player through the first three games, but then got hurt and returned to a backup role when Tranquill outplayed him in his absence. Murray was a first round pick in 2020 and was not bad in an every down role as a rookie (959 snaps), but he finished as PFF’s 90th ranked off ball linebacker out of 94 eligible last season, continuing to struggle even after returning to a reserve role. Murray has a clear path to getting back an every down role and he still has the upside to develop into at least a solid starter, but he could also continue his poor play from 2021 into 2022.

Tranquill, on the other hand, was a much more effective linebacker last season, hence why he kept the job over Murray. Tranquill didn’t finish the season with a huge snap count, but he was PFF’s 28th ranked off ball linebacker overall and the 2019 4th round showed a lot of promise on 382 snaps as a rookie as well. He actually played well enough as a rookie to earn a starting role for 2020, but he missed all but 5 snaps with injury that season and initially returned as a backup in 2021, before taking Murray’s job when Murray suffered his own injury.

Tranquill looks like the Chargers’ best linebacker, even if by default, and should have a clear path to an every down role and a career high in snaps. He’s a projection to a larger role, but could easily remain at least a solid starter in an every down capacity. Tranquill and Murray both have the upside to be solid every down players in 2022, but that’s far from a guarantee and their reserve options are underwhelming, between Reeder and 2021 6th round pick Nick Niemann, who played just 67 nondescript snaps as a rookie. The Chargers may have to move edge defender Kyle Van Noy off ball if one of their starting off ball linebackers suffers a significant injury.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Cornerback was also a position of weakness for the Chargers last season. They had four cornerbacks all see significant action, Chris Harris (747 snaps), Asante Samuel (693 snaps), Michael Davis (851 snaps), and Tevaughn Campbell (678 snaps), but only Harris even earned an average grade from PFF, with the other three finishing 106th, 112th, and 104th respectively out of 134 eligible cornerbacks. Harris was not retained this off-season, but that was not that surprising because he’s an aging slot cornerback who is middling at best at this stage of his career, and he was replaced by fellow veteran slot specialist Bryce Callahan, who could prove to be an upgrade.

The Chargers also signed JC Jackson in free agency to give them a better outside cornerback and his presence will force Samuel, Davis, and Campbell to compete for the other starting outside cornerback job, with the losers of that competition filling in as depth, assuming they make the final roster. Jackson actually didn’t became a full-time starter until last season, the 2018 undrafted free agent’s 4th season in the league, but he impressed on snap counts of 395, 682, and 851 in his first three seasons in the league, earning above average grades from PFF in all three seasons, while starting 22 games total over that stretch, and then he broke out with a career best year as a 17-game starter in 2021, finishing the season as PFF’s 3rd ranked cornerback.

Jackson is a one-year wonder in terms of playing like that for a whole season and the Chargers gave him a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar contract that makes him the 9th highest paid cornerback in the league, so he could prove to be an overpay, especially if the former undrafted free agent regresses after leaving the Patriots, as many defensive backs have over the past two decades, especially ones that were not highly drafted. However, even if he does regress, he should still remain an above average starter and an obvious upgrade at the cornerback position for the Chargers.

Samuel is the favorite to start opposite Jackson. He struggled last season, but he was only a rookie, the 2021 2nd round pick has the upside to be better going forward, and the Chargers don’t have a better option. Michael Davis has made 49 starts over the past four seasons, including 40 starts in 42 games played over the past three seasons, but he’s never been more than a middling starter and is now coming off the worst season of his career.

Meanwhile, Tevaughn Campbell is a former undrafted free agent (2019) who had played just 326 mediocre snaps in his career prior to last season, when he opened the season as just the Chargers’ 4th cornerback, but was forced significant action because the Chargers top-3 cornerbacks missed 11 games combined last season. Campbell continued to be mediocre in the first extended action of his career, proving himself to be a depth cornerback at best. He’s highly unlikely to see the same amount of snaps in 2022.

Bryce Callahan is locked in as the slot cornerback, but the 5-9 188 pounder is a slot only option and has been very injury prone in his career, missing 47 games in 7 seasons in the league, while never playing more than 13 games in a season. He’s been one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league when healthy, including 26th, 11th, and 3rd ranked finishes among cornerbacks on PFF in overall grade in 2017, 2018, and 2020 respectively, but he fell to 41st among cornerbacks in coverage grade in 2021, while struggling mightily against the run and finishing slightly below average overall. He could bounce back in 2022, but he’s also now going into his age 31 season, so he could also continue declining. It’s very possible he’ll be an upgrade on the middling Chris Harris, but even if he is, he’s likely to miss at least some time with injury.

Safety Derwin James has also missed a lot of time with injury in his career, but he played 15 games last season, which was a big step forward for him. A first round pick in 2018, James immediately became one of the best safeties in the league, finishing his rookie season as PFF’s 6th ranked safety as a 16-game starter and then playing at a similarly high level in his second season in the league in 2019, but he was limited to just 5 games by injury that season, before missing all of 2020. James was PFF’s 10th ranked safety in 2021, so his injuries didn’t sap his abilities and he could be even better in 2022, another year removed from his last major injury, still only in his age 26 season. He probably has a better chance of missing serious time with injury than most safeties, but, when on the field, he should be one of the league’s best.

Nasir Adderley remains as the other starting safety and he was a solid starter in 15 games last season. He struggled in his first season as a starter in 2020, finishing 87th out of 99 eligible safeties on PFF, after playing just 10 snaps in his rookie season, but he was a 2nd round pick back in 2019, so it’s not surprising he eventually developed into a solid starter. It’s possible he regresses a little bit in 2022 and he’s not the most proven player, but it’s also possible he could take another step forward, only in his age 25 season.

Alohi Gilman played 355 snaps last season as the third safety and, barring a significant injury to one of the starters, he’ll remain in that role this season. He struggled in his limited action, as he did on 71 snaps as a rookie in 2020, and it’s very likely he would struggle if forced into significant action this season, but it’s possible the 2020 6th round pick could take a step forward in year three and become a better reserve. Led by Derwin James and JC Jackson, this is an above average secondary, though it’s a top heavy one and losing James or Jackson to injury would be a significant loss.

Grade: B+

Special Teams

Special teams was also a big weakness for the Chargers last season, ranking 28th in DVOA. That was nothing new for a Chargers team that has had significant special teams problems in recent years, but there are reasons to believe they can be at least somewhat better in 2022, even if mostly by default. For one, they added DeAndre Carter in free agency and he’s a solid veteran return man, with experience returning both punts and kickoffs.

The Chargers also added punter JK Scott, who figures to be an upgrade on Ty Long, and Troy Reeder, who gives them a second player who finished in the top-50 among special teams on PFF last season (Nick Niemann). On top of that, they brought back Dustin Hopkins, an experienced veteran who stabilized the kicker position as a mid-season acquisition last year. This may still be an underwhelming unit, but they probably won’t be as big of a liability as a year ago.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chargers missed the post-season last year, but just barely, even though they ranked just 24th in defensive efficiency and 28th in special teams DVOA. The Chargers should be significantly better in both aspects this year, especially on defense, where they added top edge defender Khalil Mack and top cornerback JC Jackson, while their offense, which ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency last season, brought back every key player from a year ago and probably found upgrades at the right guard and tight end position. With Justin Herbert likely to be a legitimate MVP candidate in his third year in the league and a very talented roster around him, the Chargers look like one of the best teams in the league this season and have a good chance of competing for a Super Bowl. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Update: The Chargers will have a tough path out of the loaded AFC, like all AFC contenders well, but they have one of the best rosters in the league and have as good of a shot as any of the other AFC contenders to make it to the Super Bowl. They’ll have a tough battle to even win the AFC West over the Chiefs, with the Broncos and Raiders also being tough opponents, but I have them as slight favorites to win the division and they can still make the Super Bowl as a wild card.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in AFC West

Jacksonville Jaguars 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

The Jaguars came within a blown 4th quarter lead of making the Super Bowl in 2017, but that team was not built for long-term success and the Jaguars have not seen anywhere near the same success since. Those 2017 Jaguars went 10-6 against arguably the easiest schedule in the league and went to the AFC Championship game on the strength of the league’s best defense, but it’s much tougher to consistently have an elite defense than an elite offense in the NFL, so, if the Jaguars were to continue contending, they would need their offense to improve going forward to compensate for their likely defensive regression. Instead, the opposite happened, as inconsistent starting quarterback Blake Bortles proved his serviceable 2017 campaign was the result of a weak schedule and regressed to his pre-2017 self.

The 2018 Jaguars finished 5-11 and, rather than trying to keep the current core together, the Jaguars underwent a full rebuild, leading to a 2020 Jaguars team that had just six of the 26 players who played 400 snaps or more in 2017 still on the roster, as well as the league’s 2nd lowest average annual salary. The idea was to let younger, cheaper players play, roll forward significant cap space to the future, accumulate draft assets, including a pair of first round picks from the Rams for Jalen Ramsey, as well as their own high picks as a result of being among the worst teams in the league, and eventually to supplement the team with free agency after finding a quarterback of the future, using all of that accumulated cap space.

It’s not an uncommon strategy, but it doesn’t always have the best results and in the Jaguars’ case, things have not gone well. The 2020 Jaguars won just one game, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the strategy the Jaguars’ undertook, as it gave them the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which allowed them to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, considered the most obvious #1 pick selection since Andrew Luck in 2012. Lawrence was one of 8 picks in the top-42 that the Jaguars had between the 2019-2021 NFL Drafts and, equipped with among the most cap space in the league, the Jaguars underwent a big off-season spending spree.

However, the result was again the league’s worst record at 3-14 and their efficiency ratings showed them to be every bit as bad as their final record, finishing 27th in offensive efficiency, 23rd in defensive efficiency, and 31st in overall efficiency. Trevor Lawrence was a disappointment, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while finishing as PFF’s 31st ranked quarterback out of 38 eligible, and the rest of the roster disappointed in many ways as well.

It was premature to expect a playoff berth out of Jacksonville in 2021, but few expected them to struggle as much as they did. The reasons why they disappointed as much as they did are complex, but an obvious culprit was first year head coach Urban Meyer, a successful college football coach, who proved to be completely in over his head in his first year in the NFL, as he lacked the requisite knowledge of the professional game and was unwilling to alter his abrasive coaching style, to put it lightly.

Meyer didn’t last past week 14, with interim head coach Darrell Bevell leading the way for the final four games of a lost season. The good news for the Jaguars was they once again had the #1 pick and among the most cap space in the league to continue supplementing what is still one of the league’s youngest rosters, which is now coached by Doug Pederson, a veteran head coach and Super Bowl winner in Philadelphia.

That’s where the good news stops, however. Pederson, while undoubtedly an upgrade over Meyer by default, was underwhelming in his final years with the Eagles, struggling to rebuild his coaching staff after the Super Bowl victory. The Jaguars’ #1 pick came in one of the weakest drafts at the top in recent memory, leading to their selection of the highly athletic, but relatively unproven Travon Walker, which was not a bad selection given their options, but still not the kind of can’t miss prospect you expect to go #1. And, on top of that, their free agency spending spree was largely filled with massive overpays as they were seemingly overpaying anyone with any talent who was willing to play for them.

That’s not all that surprising when you consider the Jaguars history, not just their recent history of losing since that AFC Championship loss, but their history of losing dating back over a decade, as that AFC Championship appearance was just their first playoff appearance since 2007 and their 67-158 record since the start of the 2008 season is the worst in the NFL over that stretch. This year’s Jaguars team is not as bad on paper as they have been in recent years, but their talent level does not come close to matching their roster’s average annual salary, which ranks 6th in the NFL as a result of all of the Jaguars’ off-season spending, just two years after having the 2nd lowest in the NFL.

The biggest goal for the Jaguars this season, regardless of their ultimate record, would be to see significant improvement out of Lawrence. It’s certainly a strong possibility, even if the Jaguars haven’t made the most of their resources in building around him. Lawrence still is a highly talented young quarterback and it’s not uncommon for eventual franchise quarterbacks to struggle and then take a big step forward in year two or three. A big leap could still only put him among the middle of the pack in quarterbacks in the NFL, but that would be a great sign for his development long-term and would elevate the floor of this team, after back-to-back league worst seasons.

The Jaguars clearly still believe in Lawrence and did not feel the need to add another quarterback this off-season, bringing back veteran backup CJ Beathard. Beathard had to throw just two passes last season and has struggled in limited action in his career, completing 58.7% of his passes for 7.02 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while going 2-10 in 12 career starts, since being selected by the 49ers in the 3rd round in 2017. If Lawrence were to suffer an injury that caused him to miss time, Beathard would almost definitely struggle and the Jaguars would likely be among the worst teams in the league again, despite their other off-season additions.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Nowhere is the Jaguars’ recent spending spree and roster makeover more obvious than in the receiving corps, where the Jaguars have given out significant contracts to wide receivers Christian Kirk (4 years, 72 million), Marvin Jones (2 years, 12.5 million), and Zay Jones (3 years, 24 million), as well as tight end Evan Engram (1 year, 9 million) over the past two off-seasons. Marvin Jones, who signed last off-season, was a decent value, but the other three, all signed this off-season, were not good values.

On top of that, these receivers been added at the expense of an already established young starter in DJ Chark, who signed in Detroit for 1-year, 10 million this off-season, and 2020 2nd round pick Laviska Shenault, one of their recent high draft picks, who is now buried on the depth chart despite showing some promise, averaging 1.45 yards per route run as a part-time player in two seasons in the league, despite playing on a terrible passing offense in both seasons.

Christian Kirk is their de facto #1 wide receiver and they’re paying him like one, with a contract that makes him the 15th highest paid wide receiver in the league, but he’s never served in that role for a whole season, nor has he ever cracked the 1000 yards receiving mark. Kirk averaged an impressive 1.80 yards per route run average last season and the 2018 2nd round pick is still only going into his age 26 season, but his 2020 season saw Kirk have a 1.21 yards per route run average and his career average of 1.53 yards per route run isn’t much higher than Shenault’s and definitely does not make Kirk seem like a top level wide receiver.

Marvin Jones was their de facto #1 wide receiver last season, leading the team with a 73/832/4 slash line, but he earned just a middling grade from PFF and arguably should have been more productive given the opportunity he got, averaging just 1.33 yards per route run and 6.93 yards per target on 120 targets. Jones has been a solid wide receiver in the NFL for a long time, averaging a 62/850/7 slash line per 16 games since 2013, topping out with a 61/1101/9 season in 2017, but he’s now going into his age 32 season and could easily be nearing the end of the line. I wouldn’t expect him to be significantly better this season than last season and he could easily fall off in a significant way.

Zay Jones is likely locked in as the #3 receiver given his salary, but he was only a marginal #3 wide receiver with the Raiders last season, averaging 1.35 yards per route run and posting a 47/546/1 slash line, and, prior to last season, he had struggled throughout his career, averaging just 0.87 yards per route run. It’s possible the 2017 2nd round pick has turned a corner and will remain a capable #3 wide receiver, but the Jaguars overpaid either way.

Shenault will play a reserve role, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, and the Jaguars also have veteran holdover Laquon Treadwell, who was decent in limited action as a reserve last season, averaging 1.52 yards per route run. The former 2016 first round pick has been a complete bust in his career, averaging 1.04 yards per route run, but that has jumped to 1.63 yards per route run as a reserve over the past three seasons, so he’s not a bad depth option.

At tight end, free agent acquisition Evan Engram will be an upgrade by default, as the Jaguars got just 50 catches out of the tight end position in total last season, but that doesn’t mean he was a good value. Engram has averaged a 64/696/4 slash line per 16 games in his career, but he’s only played the full season once in five seasons in the league, missing 16 games in total, while dropping 29 passes in 65 games and struggling as a run blocker. He’s also coming off of a career worst season in his contract year, posting a 46/408/3 slash line with 0.89 yards per route run in 15 games and finishing as PFF’s 42nd ranked tight end out of 44th eligible.

It makes sense Engram would have taken a one-year deal this off-season, to try to rehab his value after a down year and get a bigger contract next off-season, but the Jaguars are paying a lot for a one-year rental and if he happens to bounce back they would have to pay even more to keep him long-term. A two-year deal with only a guaranteed first year that gives the Jaguars an option to bring him back for 2023 if they wanted would have made more sense at this price, rather than a low upside one-year deal.

Engram will be backed up by holdovers Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz, and Luke Farrell. Manhertz is a blocking specialist who has fared well in that role in his career, but has just 18 career catches in 84 games. Arnold is the opposite, a 6-6 220 receiving specialist who has averaged 1.55 yards per route run in his career in a situational role, but who doesn’t hold up as a blocker. His 28/324/0 slash line led the position for the Jaguars last season and it came in just 8 games, but Engram’s addition leaves him with an uncertain role. Farrell, meanwhile, is a 2021 5th round pick who struggled on 255 snaps as a rookie, but could be better going forward. The Jaguars have invested a lot in this receiving corps and it should be better than last season’s by default, especially from a depth perspective, but it’s still an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Jaguars made a couple big investments on the offensive line this off-season, including an investment in a homegrown player, keeping left tackle Cam Robinson on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal, making him the 8th highest paid offensive tackle in the league. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Robinson has shaken off some early career struggles to develop into a solid starter, but a solid starter is the most he’s ever been, as his 50th ranked finish among offensive tackles on PFF last season was a career best.

Given that he’s never been more than a solid starter, Robinson is overpaid and it’s surprising to see the Jaguars keep him at that salary rather than promoting 2021 2nd round pick Walker Little or finding a cheaper, comparable replacement in free agency. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor returns as well, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him be pushed for his job by Little, as Taylor has been inconsistent and overall underwhelming in 49 career starts since being selected by the Jaguars in the 2nd round in 2019. He’s unlikely to be extended this off-season, ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2022.

The Jaguars’ other big investment on the offensive line was giving a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal to right guard Brandon Scherff to come over from Washington, where the 2015 5th overall pick spent the first seven seasons of his career. Scherff excelled throughout much of his time in Washington, finishing in the top-16 among guards on PFF in five of seven seasons and never finishing worse than 27th, but he came with a steep price tag, making him the highest paid guard in the league. He’s also going into his age 31 with a concerning injury history, not playing more than 14 games in a season since 2016 and missing 24 games over the past five seasons combined. He’s not a bad signing, even at a high price, but he is probably on the way down and will likely miss at least some time with injury.

The Jaguars were probably hoping to pair Scherff with highly paid center Brandon Linder, who has been one of the better players at his position throughout the past several seasons, but Linder surprisingly retired ahead of his age 30 season this off-season. Linder slipped to 26th among 41 eligible centers on PFF last season and missed 8 games with injury, likely part of the reason why he retired, but he’ll still be a loss for the Jaguars.

Jacksonville used a third round pick on Kentucky center Luke Fortner and he’s likely viewed as the long-term starter at the position, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see veteran Tyler Shatley begin the season as the starter, as the career reserve has held his own in 18 starts as an injury replacement over the past two seasons. Going into his age 31 season, having never made more than 10 starts in a season, Shatley is a low upside option and not a long-term solution, but Fortner might not start right away.

Scherff is effectively replacing highly paid left guard Andrew Norwell, who was a middling starter last season and was released ahead of a 13 million dollar non-guaranteed salary this off-season, but Scherff is a natural right guard, so it’s likely that incumbent right guard Ben Bartch will be moving to left guard. Bartch has been underwhelming in 12 career starts since being selected in the 4th round in 2020 and it’s unclear if changing positions will hurt his development, but he has the upside to take a step forward in 2022, even if he does change positions.

Along with Walker Little and Tyler Shatley, the Jaguars’ top reserve is Will Richardson, who has made five starts in his career (3 at tackle, 2 at guard), but he’s struggled throughout his limited action, so depth is a bit of a concern for this team. It’s not a terrible offensive line, especially with the addition of Scherff, but it’s an underwhelming group overall, as their only consistently above average starter is an injury prone player over 30, while both center and right tackle could prove to be positions of weakness.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Of all the recent high draft picks the Jaguars have had, the most head scratching was their selection of running back Travis Etienne with the 25th overall pick in 2021, the second of the two first round picks they got from the Rams for Jalen Ramsey. Taking running backs in the first round is questionable in general, but the Jaguars didn’t seem to have a need for a running back after 2020 undrafted free agent James Robinson rushed for 1,070 yards on 240 carries (4.46 YPC) and 7 touchdowns as a rookie.

Making that pick even worse is the fact that Etienne suffered a foot injury in the pre-season and missed the entire year, though the Jaguars obviously couldn’t have predicted that. Even with Etienne out, however, the Jaguars did not give Robinson the same workload in 2021 as he got in 2020, with his carry total slipping to 164 carries. He was still effective when given the opportunity, rushing for 4.68 YPC, but Urban Meyer gave backup Carlos Hyde a significant role and Robinson’s season ultimately ended after 14 games with a torn achilles.

Robinson’s injury was late enough in the season that it leaves his status for the start of the 2022 season in question, which makes it even tougher to project how the workload will be split this season. Etienne is expected to return to full strength for the start of the 2022 season, but it seems like his selection was heavily influenced by Urban Meyer, who is gone, so it’s unclear which running back the new coaching staff prefers.

Etienne is the better of the two as a receiver (Robinson averages just 1.03 yards per route run in his career) and will likely have a big role in passing situations regardless, but Robinson could still lead this team in rushing, especially if he plays all or most of the season. The Jaguars also used a 5th round pick on more insurance, taking Mississippi’s Snoop Conner. It’s a talented backfield, even if one with uncertainty and key players coming off of injury.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Jaguars used the #1 overall pick on Georgia defensive lineman Travon Walker and, compared to the typical #1 overall pick, Walker is a relatively underwhelming pick, but the Jaguars might not have had a better choice, in a weak draft overall at the top. The consensus for a few weeks leading up to the draft was that the Jaguars would take the more productive Aidan Hutchinson, but they chose to bet on Walker’s athleticism and versatility and it makes a lot of sense. Hutchinson has a relatively limited ceiling, while Walker’s lack of production in college was in large part due to being used in a variety of different roles, including frequently lining up in the interior, where it is tougher to get to the quarterback from.

Walker still comes with a lot of risk and it’s unclear exactly how the Jaguars plan to use him, as a pure edge defender or a hybrid player, but he should be able to make an impact, even as a rookie. He’s also the third edge defender the Jaguars have used a first round pick on in the past four drafts. One of those selections worked out much better than the other, as Josh Allen, the 7th overall pick in 2019, has developed into one of the best young edge defenders in the league.

Allen has earned an above average grade from PFF in all three seasons in the league, totaling 20.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 40 career games, and he’s coming off the best season of his career, finishing the 2021 season as PFF’s 19th ranked edge defender, playing at a high level against the run and adding 7.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Only going into his age 25 season, Allen could keep getting better and, even though development is not always linear, I would expect him to have another strong season in 2022. The Jaguars made the obvious choice to pick up his 5th year option for 2023 and will work to sign him on a long-term extension over the next couple off-seasons. In a best case scenario, Allen and Walker can bookend a talented pass rush for years to come.

On the other hand, K’Lavon Chaisson, their other recent first round edge defender, has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, totaling just 2 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate in 31 career games, while struggling against the run and finishing in the bottom 5% in overall grade among edge defenders on PFF in both seasons. Chaisson already saw his snap count drop from 569 in 2020 to 384 in 2021 and, in a deeper position group in 2022, Chaisson could see that number even further. It’s also possible he gets traded if the Jaguars can find a team willing to take a shot on him for at least some return.

The Jaguars also signed Arden Key in free agency to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and he figures to have at least a rotational role as well. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Key struggled across his first 3 seasons in the league with the Raiders, earning below average grades from PFF in all three seasons, but the 49ers were able to get some good pass rush out of him in a rotational role last season, as he totaled 6.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 17 games. He’s still a one-year wonder as a pass rusher, as his pressure rate was 8.6% across his first three seasons combined, and he’s never played the run well, but he’s also only going into his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average rotational pass rusher.

The addition of Key, as well as Walker, leaves the role of Dawuane Smoot in doubt, after he finished 2nd on the team among edge defenders with 675 snaps played last season. Smoot had a solid season last year, totalling 6 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate, but he finished well below average on PFF in both 2019 and 2020 and combined for just a 7.2% pressure rate over those two seasons, so he could easily regress, now going into his 6th season in the league. He should still be ahead of Chaisson in the rotation, but how much he’ll play compared to off-season additions Travon Walker and Arden Key remains to be seen. It’s a much deeper group than a year ago and a pretty talented group overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Jaguars also made a big addition on the interior of their defensive line this off-season, signing ex-Jet Foley Fatukasi to a 3-year deal worth 30 million, and, like most of the Jaguars’ signings this off-season, this move looks like an overpay. A 6th round pick in 2018, Fatukasi was a dominant run defender in a situational role in 2019 and 2020, playing 390 snaps and 507 snaps respectively in those two seasons and finishing 5th and 2nd respectively among interior defenders in run defense grade on PFF, but he’s never been much of a pass rusher (4.8% career pressure rate) and his run defense fell off in a big way in 2021, as he ranked around middle of the pack.

Still only going into his age 27 season, Fatukasi could definitely bounce back as a run defender, but even at his best, he’s a situational, rotational player, so paying him 10 million annually seems steep. He was a needed addition at a position of weakness, however, as the Jaguars’ top-5 interior defenders last season in terms of snaps played all finished with below average grades from PFF. Four of those players (Roy Robertson-Harris, Malcom Brown, Davon Hamilton, and Adam Gotsis) return to the Jaguars for 2022 and will compete for roles.

Robertson-Harris and Brown were signed last off-season to deals worth 23.4 million over 3 years and 11 million over 2 years respectively and both have bounce back potential, after uncharacteristically bad years. Robertson-Harris has never been much of a run defender, but he has a career 9.3% pressure rate and, prior to finishing 91st out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF in 2021, he had three straight seasons with above average grades on PFF. Going into his age 29 season, he could bounce back and be an effective sub package player, but that’s not a guarantee. Him bouncing back is especially important because he is the only effective pass rusher in this position group.

Brown is the opposite kind of player, a traditionally above average run stopper who has never been effective as a pass rusher, with a career 5.4% pressure rate. Brown struggled against the run as well in 2021 and fell to 134th out of 146 eligible interior defenders overall on PFF, but last season was his first below average season on PFF, earning average or better grades from PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league, after being drafted in the first round in 2015. Still only going into his age 28 season, he has bounce back potential as well, but could continue struggling and, even at his best, he is just an early down run stuffer.

Hamilton isn’t as proven as Robertson-Harris or Brown, but the 2020 3rd round pick does come with some upside, even if his career has started off with finishes of 103rd out of 139 eligible interior defenders and 92nd out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF. Even if he does take a step forward in 2022 though, the likely result would be him being a replacement level rotation player, so it’s hard to get excited about him.

Gotsis, meanwhile, could end up the odd man out in a relatively deep group, as he has not been effective as a pass rusher (4.8% pressure rate for his career) or run stopper for several years and now heads into his age 30 season. This isn’t a bad group overall, but Robertson-Harris is the only player who gets consistent pass rush, so the Jaguars may be looking to line up a larger defensive end like Travon Walker up on the interior regularly in sub packages.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Jaguars also invested heavily in an attempt to improve their linebacking corps. The biggest investment they made was giving ex-Falcon’s linebacker Foyesade Oluokun a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal that makes him the 4th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Oluokun is essentially replacing another highly paid linebacker, Myles Jack, a long-time Jaguar who was set to make 10.75 million non-guaranteed in 2022, in the third year of a 4-year, 57 million dollar extension.

Jack finished 84th out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season, so moving on from him ahead of a big non-guaranteed salary isn’t surprising and it wouldn’t be hard for Oluokun to be an upgrade, but Oluokun finished just 69th out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season, so it’s unclear why the Jaguars decided to make him one of the highest paid players in the league at his position. Oluokun has been better in the past, but the 2018 6th round pick has never finished higher than 37th among linebackers on PFF, so it’s hard to see him suddenly becoming a consistently above average starter, even if he is likely to be better in 2022 than he was in his down 2021 season.

Damien Wilson was the Jaguars’ other every down linebacker last season and he struggled as well, finishing 77th out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF across 866 snaps. Wilson signed in Carolina this off-season and the Jaguars replaced him by trading back up into the end of the first round to select Devin Lloyd, arguably the best off ball linebacker in the draft, with the 27th overall pick. Lloyd should immediately take over a big role.

The Jaguars then double dipped at the linebacker position by taking Chad Muma in the third round. He’ll compete for the top backup role with Shaq Quarterman, a 2020 4th round pick who is the only holdover of note from last year’s group. Even as the top reserve, Quarterman played just 144 snaps, after not playing at all as a rookie. The selection of Muma would seem to be a bad sign for Quarterman’s long-term chances in Jacksonville. This should be a better group than a year ago, but it may be mostly by default.

Grade: C+

Secondary

One of the recent high draft picks the Jaguars have used was on cornerback CJ Henderson, who was selected 9th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, but Henderson proved to be a massive bust. He earned a below average grade from PFF across 474 snaps as a rookie and lasted just 108 below average snaps in two games in 2021 before being traded to Carolina for a 3rd round pick and veteran tight end Dan Arnold. Even though they were selling low on a player who was barely over a year removed from being a top-10 pick, the Jaguars seem to have won that trade, as Henderson didn’t show anything more across 282 snaps with the Panthers than he did with the Jaguars.

The Jaguars also used the 33rd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on a cornerback and they seem to have hit on that pick, selecting Georgia’s Tyson Campbell. Considered very raw coming out of college, Campbell predictably struggled early in the season, but improved significantly as the year went on, finishing as PFF’s 26th ranked cornerback from week 12 on. He only finished with a middling grade overall from PFF, but his best football is almost definitely still in front of him, still just a few months removed from his 22nd birthday.

Campbell will start alongside recent free agent additions Shaq Griffin, who signed a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season, and Darious Williams, who signed a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal this off-season. Both are among the best contracts the Jaguars have given out the past two seasons. Griffin was one of the Jaguars’ best players in general last season, finishing 24th among cornerbacks on PFF, and he’s been a consistently solid player throughout his career, earning above average grades from PFF in four of five seasons, with his best year coming in 2019, when he finished 11th at his position. Only in his age 27 season, Griffin should keep up his above average play for at least a few more years and is the Jaguars’ de facto #1 cornerback.

Williams, meanwhile, comes over from the Rams, where he developed into a solid starter opposite former Jaguar Jalen Ramsey. Undrafted in 2018, Williams played sparingly across his first two seasons in the league (225 snaps), but he showed potential in that limited action and put it all together with a 6th ranked season among cornerbacks on PFF in 2020. Williams is a one-year wonder who fell to a middling 57th among cornerbacks in 2021 and he might have a hard time bouncing back now that he doesn’t have as much talent around him, but he could easily remain a solid starter and wasn’t a bad value at 10 million annually.

Rudy Ford (423 snaps) and Tre Herndon (207 snaps) return and will likely be the Jaguars’ top reserves at the position, although both struggled in their limited action last season. Herndon has finished below average on PFF in all four seasons of his career, while Ford was primarily a special teamer who played just 127 snaps in four seasons in the league before being forced into an expanded role last season, so I wouldn’t expect more from either player in 2022. The Jaguars have a talented trio of cornerbacks and this is a more talented group than a year ago with Darious Williams being added, but depth is a concern if any of their top-3 get hurt.

Safety is one of the few positions where the Jaguars stood pat this off-season, as their top-3 safeties from a year ago, Rayshawn Jenkins, Andrew Wingard, and Andre Cisco all return, without any significant additions being made. Jenkins and Wingard were the clear starters last season, but Cisco is a 2021 3rd round pick who flashed on 247 snaps as a rookie, so he could push either of the starters for their job.

Jenkins was signed to a 4-year, 35 million dollar deal last off-season and would seem likely to keep his job on salary alone, but he struggled last season, finishing 79th out of 98 eligible safeties, while Wingard finished 34th. Jenkins was better in 2020, finishing 24th among safeties on PFF, so he has some bounce back potential, but his first season in Jacksonville was definitely a disappointment. Wingard, meanwhile, is a 2019 undrafted free agent who was a full-time starter last season for the first time last season, but who flashed promise in limited action in 2019 and 2020. He’s not that proven, but could easily be a solid starter again in 2022 if he can keep his job. This is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B

Special Teams

Special teams was also a big problem for the Jaguars in 2021, as they ranked 31st in special teams DVOA, and they look like they will be a below average unit again, without major changes being made. Logan Cooke returns as the punter and Jamal Agnew remains their primary return man. The Jaguars didn’t have any special teams finish in the top-50 on PFF and didn’t add any top-50 special teamers in free agency either. The only big change will be at kicker, where the winner of Ryan Santoso and Andrew Mevis will be the starter, but both would be underwhelming options.

Santoso went 4 of 5 on field goals in the first action of his career last season, but didn’t hit from longer than 35 and went just 6 of 8 on extra points, while Mevis is an undrafted free agent, albeit one who went 20 of 23 in his final collegiate season in 2021, including 2 of 2 from 50+. Regardless of who wins the kicker battle, special teams figures to be a liability again for the Jaguars in 2022, without any high level core special teamers.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jaguars have spent a lot of resources in the last few off-seasons rebuilding this team, between high draft picks and free agent spending sprees. As a result, the Jaguars should be improved in 2022, especially since they figure to be better coached as well, but they’re starting from such a low base point and many of the resources they spent were used on overpaying veterans or making draft picks that have yet to pan out. They should be a more competitive team this year, especially if quarterback Trevor Lawrence can make a big step forward in year two, but I have a hard time seeing them actually competing for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Jaguars should be better than a year ago by default, but still have a very underwhelming roster that is at least a year away from seriously competing for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC South

Houston Texans 2022 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2022September 4, 2022 stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

The Texans won just four games in 2021, but in many ways they exceeded expectations by doing that. Once perennial playoff contenders as recently as 2019, the Texans lost a significant amount of talent over the subsequent few off-seasons, including dominant wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, long-time dominant defender JJ Watt, talented safeties Kareem Jackson and Tyrann Mathieu, and talented defensive linemen DJ Reader and Jadeveon Clowney, among other key players. The Texans were unable to find adequate replacements for most of these players either through free agency or the draft, a problem made harder by the fact that the Texans had just four picks in the first two rounds combined across the 2018-2021 drafts, as a result of an aggressive team building strategy that did not result in an extended playoff run.

Making matters worse, star quarterback Deshaun Watson, who had already demanded a trade last off-season, had to sit out the entire 2021 season while his off-the-field legal situation played out. The 2020 Texans went just 4-12 and looked even worse on paper going into 2021, even before losing Watson, who was PFF’s 2nd ranked quarterback in 2020, despite the Texans’ lack of team success. Forced to turn to veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor and raw 3rd round rookie Davis Mills in Watson’s absence, it wasn’t hard to see how this team would be among the worst in the league in 2021.

The Texans weren’t quite as bad as many expected, with projections giving them a good chance to finish the season winless, but they were still among the worst teams in the league and were arguably even worse than their 4-13 record suggested, as their only win in which they won the first down rate battle was their week one home victory over a Jaguars team that finished with an even worse record at 3-14. In their other victory over the Jaguars, Texans lost the first down rate battle by 8.02%, only winning the game because they overperformed on third down (10/18 vs. 3/14), which is not as predictive as early downs. In their upset wins over the Chargers and Titans, the Texans won the turnover battle by 3 and 5 respectively, but lost the first down rate battle by 2.86% and 9.47% respectively.

Meanwhile, most of the Texans losses were not close, coming by an average of 17.2 points per game, leading to the Texans ranking dead last in overall efficiency, over five points worse than the next closest team, with their defense and offense both ranking dead last in efficiency. They might not have had the worst record in the league last season, but they’re still probably starting from a lower base point than any team in the league.

There is some good news, however. For one, Watson’s legal situation cleared up enough that the Texans were able to trade him to Cleveland for a huge return that included a trio of first round picks (2022-2024), despite lingering allegations and civil lawsuits against Watson. You never want to have to trade a player of Watson’s caliber in his prime, but given the circumstances, the Texans have to be considered winners of that trade. The added draft capital will be very valuable for a team that has lacked high draft picks in recent years and, when you add in their own 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft as a result of last year’s terrible record, the Texans have plenty of resources with which to rebuild.

The most important thing the Texans will have to do long-term now is to find a franchise quarterback. The Texans wisely sat out this off-season’s quarterback carousel, not giving up valuable draft capital to acquire an expensive veteran to quarterback a team that is otherwise taking a long-term approach to roster building, and not using a high draft pick to acquire a young quarterback who may not be any better than the one they already have in Davis Mills, who was the 8th quarterback chosen in a much deeper draft in 2021, but who could have been one of the first signal callers picked in a much weaker draft in 2022 had he returned to school for one more year.

In many ways Mills is the perfect quarterback for the Texans right now, as he could take a step forward and prove to be a long-term option and, if not, the Texans would almost definitely be picking near the top of a much better quarterback draft in 2023, which would allow them to get their quarterback of the future in a year. Either way, the Texans should have a lot more clarity on the position in a year, regardless of how the 2022 season plays out.

All in all, Mills had a rough rookie season, finishing 36th among 39 eligible quarterbacks on PFF and completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 6.76 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, but he did show some progress as the season went on, a good sign for a quarterback considered to have first round talent, who only fell because he started just 11 collegiate games. Across Mills’ first eight games, he completed 65.5% of his passes for an average of just 6.30 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, before completing 68.4% of his passes for an average of 7.36 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his final five games.

For better or worse, the Texans are fully committed to Mills for the time being, only bringing in middling backup Kyle Allen this off-season, rather than adding a higher upside backup who could potentially push Mills for his job if he struggles. Allen has made 17 starts in four seasons in the league, but his career stats of 63.1% completion, 6.90 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions are very underwhelming and his only extended run as a starting quarterback came in a 2019 season in which he finished as PFF’s 38th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. Barring injury, Mills should be the season-long starter, with Allen likely only being an option if Mills struggles mightily. I don’t expect Mills to be the long-term solution for this team, but he at least has the upside to potentially be.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One of the most questionable decisions the Texans made to put their roster in its current state was sending two first round picks and a second round pick to the Dolphins for left tackle Laremy Tunsil before the start of the 2019 season. The Texans had badly needed left tackle help for years and Tunsil was an above average starter on a rookie deal, but he was not the type of elite player that usually returned multiple high picks in a trade and the Texans also gave him a top of the market extension worth 66 million over 3 years ahead of the final two years of his rookie deal, so he didn’t come cheap from a salary standpoint either.

Tunsil continued his above average play in his first two seasons in Houston, finishing 19th and 28th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2019 and 2020 respectively, after finishing 24th among offensive tackles in his final season in Miami in 2018, but with the Texans bottoming out in 2020, the second of the two first round picks the Texans surrendered happened to be 3rd overall in one of the best quarterback drafts in recent memory. The Dolphins didn’t need a quarterback, but were able to trade the pick to the 49ers for a trio of first round picks, so in some ways, it’s like the Texans surrendered four first round picks for Tunsil.

Making matters even worse, Tunsil spent most of 2021 sidelined with injury, playing just 262 middling snaps across 5 games. Still only in his age 28 season without a significant injury history, playing at least 14 games in each of his first 5 seasons prior to last season, Tunsil has obvious bounce back potential, but he’ll never be the kind of player who justifies the cost the Texans paid for him. With two highly paid years left on his contract, there has been some talk of the Texans potentially moving Tunsil to try to recoup some draft compensation, but he likely wouldn’t return much in a trade because of his salary obligations and, for better or worse, he’s the Texans’ best offensive lineman and they missed him badly when he was out last season.

Tunsil was not the only offensive lineman that the Texans used significant resources to acquire during the 2019 off-season, as they also spent their first and second round picks on a pair of offensive linemen in Tytus Howard and Max Scharping, and, like Tunsil, neither has been worth what the Texans paid for them. Howard struggled across 22 starts at right tackle in his first two seasons in the league and then wasn’t much better when the Texans moved him to left guard in 2021.

Despite that, the Texans still picked up his 5th year option for 2023, which will guarantee him 13.202 million, a large sum for an offensive lineman yet to consistently put it together. The Texans decision to do that shows they still believe in his upside and it should lock him into a starting role for the next two seasons, but where he plays is still a bit of a mystery. He seems more comfortable at guard, but guard is a less valued position and his salary for 2023 would put him among the top-10 highest paid guards in the league, which he has yet to come close to justifying with his play. Barring a huge breakout year in 2022, he figures to be overpaid in 2023, regardless of what position he plays.

At least Howard is still a starter for this team, which isn’t necessarily true of Max Scharping, as he has struggled across 33 career starts, all at guard, earning below average grades from PFF in all three seasons, and he then saw the Texans add a couple of additional guards this off-season. Even if Howard is moved back to tackle, which is not a guarantee, Scharping will still need to compete with newcomers Kenyon Green and AJ Cann for starting roles. Green seems most likely of the three to start, as the Texans just used the 15th overall pick on him, but he isn’t locked into a starting role and isn’t a guarantee to make an immediate impact even if he lands the role.

Cann, meanwhile, is a veteran coming over from the Jaguars as a free agent. Cann was a long-time starter in Jacksonville, starting 94 games in 7 seasons, but he was pretty inconsistent and never played at a high level for a full season, maxing out as PFF’s 32nd ranked guard in 2016. Cann is also now going into his age 31 season and coming off of a year in which he struggled in four starts before going down for the season with injury, so he shouldn’t be locked into a starting role, but his 2-year, 8.5 million dollar contract suggests the Texans at least expect him to compete to start.

If Howard stays at guard, the Texans will likely stick with 2020 4th round pick Charlie Heck at right tackle, even though he struggled across 13 starts there last season, finishing as PFF’s 79th ranked offensive tackle out of 88 eligible. Heck didn’t show much as a rookie either, but it’s always a possibility he takes a step forward now in his 3rd season in the league, even if that’s far from a guarantee. If Howard moves back to right tackle, Heck would move to a swing tackle role and would be a top reserve along with the loser of the Green/Cann/Scharping battle for the two guard spots. The Texans also have Justin McCray, a versatile veteran who started 8 games for the Texans last season, albeit one who has mostly struggled across 27 career starts at various positions in 5 seasons in the league.

At center, the Texans will likely stick with Justin Britt, who earned a middling grade from PFF across 11 starts last season. Britt was PFF’s 12th ranked center in 2016, but he hasn’t come close to being that good in any of his other seasons, finishing 23rd or worse at his position in every other season, and he’s had a lot of injury issues in recent years, playing in just 19 games total over the past 3 seasons. Now going into his age 31 season, durability will especially be a concern for Britt and he could start to decline when on the field as well. He could also remain a decent starter, but the Texans could need to turn to backup Jimmy Morrissey, a 2021 7th round pick who struggled on 258 rookie year snaps, if Britt gets hurt or struggles. The Texans did add to this group this off-season and they should be better with Laremy Tunsil likely to be healthier, but this is still an unsettled group that could easily have some problems this season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Another one of the more questionable decisions the Texans have made in recent years to leave their roster in the state in which it is currently was their decision to trade DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals for a 2nd and 4th round pick, following the 2019 season. Trading Hopkins wasn’t a bad idea inherently and Hopkins has shown some signs of declining since joining the Cardinals and signing a big extension, but it was inexcusable for the Texans not to get back at least a first round pick for Hopkins, with six comparable or inferior wide receivers (Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Marquise Brown, AJ Brown, Odell Beckham) all being traded for at least a first round pick in the past four off-seasons, with Adams and Hill returning both a first and second round pick via trade.

The reason the Texans didn’t get a first round pick for Hopkins is that they valued Cardinals running back David Johnson, who they also acquired in the trade, but he did not come close to being worth the difference in draft compensation between what the Texans got and and what they could have gotten from another team had the Texans not been enamored with Johnson. For comparison, the Packers and Chiefs received 1,150 and 1,100 points of draft capital for Adams and Hill respectively, while the Texans received 500 for Hopkins, a difference in draft capital worth equivalent to in between the 28th-31st pick.

Making the Hopkins trade even weirder is the Texans then turned around and traded a second round pick to the Rams for Brandin Cooks as a replacement #1 wide receiver. The pick they gave up for Cooks was later in the second round than the pick they received for Hopkins (40th vs. 57th) and Cooks was paid significantly less over the past two seasons than Hopkins made with the Cardinals (41 million vs. 21.15 million), but Cooks was not the top level receiver Hopkins had been for the Texans. That being said, Cooks has still been their #1 receiver over the past two seasons and managed to surpass 1000 yards in both seasons, despite underwhelming quarterback play in 2021.

Cooks did benefit from receiving 134 targets in 2021, 13th most in the league, but his 7.74 yards per target average was still well above the team average and, in total, he’s surpassed 1000 yards six times over the past seven seasons. Still only going into his age 29 season, Cooks should continue playing well in 2021, even if he’s not a truly elite wide receiver, maxing out as PFF’s 20th ranked wide receiver in 2020 and finishing the 2021 season ranked 24th at his position. The Texans opted to keep him long-term this off-season, extending him on a 2-year, 39.764 million dollar deal ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract in 2022.

Part of the reason why Cooks received so many targets last season was that the Texans lacked another consistent receiving option. In fact, their 2nd leading receiver only had a 33/446/1 slash line. That receiver was 2021 3rd round pick Nico Collins, so he at least has some upside and could easily be better in 2022. The Texans also used a second round pick John Metchie in this year’s draft and he has upside as well. He’s coming off of a torn ACL in the college football playoffs, which has him questionable for the start of the season, but he has a good chance to at least carve out a role by the end of the season.

Veteran Chris Conley will likely keep the seat warm for Metchie while he develops and recovers from his injury, but Conley averaged just 0.96 yards per route run last season, so he’s a very underwhelming option. Even if quarterback play could be to blame for his struggles last season, he averaged just 1.06 yards per route run across his 7-year career, with a variety of different quarterbacks, so he’s unlikely to be much of a factor, especially now going into his age 30 season. The Texans also have fellow veteran Phillip Dorsett, but he has just 7 catches with three different teams over the past two seasons and is not even a lock to make this roster.

The Texans also didn’t get much out of the tight end position last season. Pharaoh Brown led the team with 605 snaps played by a tight end, but he was mostly a blocker, so he, Jordan Akins, and Brevin Jordan all saw about equal action as a receiver, with none having much of an impact, totaling slash lines of 23/171/0, 24/214/0, and 20/178/3 respectively. Brown should return in his blocking role, but last season’s underwhelming production was the best receiving year of his career, so he’s unlikely to make a significantly bigger impact in that aspect this year.

Without any significant off-season additions at the position and with Jordan Akins no longer with the team, the Texans are likely expecting more out of Brevin Jordan, who they selected in the 5th round last year. He showed some promise and led all Texans tight ends with 1.19 yards per route run, but he played limited action and is a projection to a larger role. The Texans also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Teagan Quitoriano, another developmental tight end, but he’s highly unlikely to open the season as higher than the third tight end on the depth chart and could be behind veteran blocking specialist Antony Auclair as well. The Texans still don’t have a clear #2 receiving option behind Brandin Cooks, but they do at least have some young players with potential.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Texans vastly overvaluing David Johnson in the DeAndre Hopkins trade was the primary reason that trade was a mistake, rather than the decision to trade Hopkins itself. Not only did the Texans value Johnson equivalent to significant draft compensation, but they also took on his terrible contract, which should have made Johnson worth negative draft compensation, and paid Johnson 15.85 million over the past two seasons. In return, Johnson gave them just 1,458 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns in 25 games across those two seasons, before not being brought back as a free agent this off-season.

Johnson was one of five running backs to make starts for the Texans in 2021, with none having much of any success, on a team that finished the season ranked dead last in the NFL with a 3.39 YPC average. The Texans didn’t make any big investments at the position this off-season, but running back is a position where you can often find effective players for cheap. Of the five backs who started for them last season, two of them (Royce Freeman and Rex Burkhead) remain and the Texans have also added veteran free agent Marlon Mack and 4th round rookie Dameon Pierce, who both come with upside.

Mack is a former starter and was a 1,000 yard rusher with the Colts in 2019, but he tore his achilles in 2020 and lost his job to young phenom Jonathan Taylor, limiting Mack to just 32 carries total since that 1000+ yard season in 2019. Mack is still only going into his age 26 season and is now another year removed from his injury, so he has plenty of bounce back potential. His 0.83 yards per route run average shows his struggles in the passing game, but he has averaged 4.38 yards per carry on the ground in his career and has experience as a lead back, a role he could easily reprise in Houston, without much competition. Pierce would be my second pick to lead this team in rushing, even though he’s a 4th round rookie, as mid-round rookies often have an impact at the running back position.

Freeman and Burkhead, meanwhile, are low upside veterans without much of a track record. Freeman has averaged 3.84 yards per carry on 353 carries in 61 games in four seasons in the league, while averaging just 0.82 yards per route run, and Burkhead has averaged 3.96 yards per carry on 462 carries in 98 games in nine seasons in the league, with just a 3.50 YPC average last season on a career high 122 carries. Burkhead at least is useful on passing downs (1.65 yards per route run for his career), but, now in his age 32 season, he’s an underwhelming option even in the passing game. Mack and Pierce have upside, but this is still one of the most wide open and unimpressive running back groups in the league.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

Arguably the biggest bright spot for the Texans last season was the emergence of young edge defender Jonathan Greenard, a 3rd round pick in 2020. Greenard only played 414 snaps total, missing five games and playing sparingly early in the season, but he played so well when on the field that the Texans had to give him more action later in the year. He led the team with 8 sacks, which is impressive considering his playing time and lack of opportunities to rush the passer on a team that was frequently trailing, and he added another 7 hits and a 12.6% pressure rate.

Greenard finished as PFF’s 7th ranked edge defender in pass rush grade and, though he was not as effective against the run, he still finished as PFF’s 11th best edge defender overall. Greenard is still pretty unproven, having only played 265 snaps as a rookie in 2020 prior to last year’s relatively low snap count, but he has plenty of upside and undoubtedly should get a bigger snap count in 2022. It would not be a surprise at all if he broke out as a Pro-Bowl caliber player for years to come.

Greenard should have plenty of opportunity to earn a bigger role, as just one other of the Texans top-5 edge defenders in terms of snaps played last season remains on the roster (Jordan Jenkins, 282 snaps), but the Texans did bring in some reinforcements, signing veterans Jerry Hughes (2 years, 10 million), Rasheem Green (1 year, 3.25 million), Mario Addison (2-year, 7.7 million), and Ogbo Okoronkwo (1-year, 3.25 million). All in all, those players are likely to be an upgrade on the players they are replacing, all of whom were middling at best.

Hughes is the most proven of the bunch, consistently earning above average pass rush grades across nine seasons with the Bills, totalling 52.5 sacks, 69 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 144 games. Hughes has never been as good as a run stopper and his sack count dropped to just two last season, but he still managed a 13.1% pressure rate as a part-time player, while earning PFF’s 15th ranked pass rush grade by an edge defender. Heading into his age 34 season, there’s always a possibility Hughes drops off completely this season, but he could easily continue being effective as a situational pass rusher. He’s also been incredibly durable, missing just one game in the past decade, which is likely a good sign for his chances of continuing to be effective into his mid-30s.

Addison also is an aging veteran who comes over from the Bills, but he hasn’t been as effective as Hughes in recent years, earning middling grades over the past four seasons, and now he heads into his age 35 season, so he may not have much left in the tank. He did have seven sacks last season, but added just one other quarterback hit and his 11.0% pressure rate was noticeably more middling than Hughes’ pressure rate, on the same defense. He’ll probably still have a role, at least in the beginning of the season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a game day inactive down the stretch if the Texans are in the middle of another lost season and want to give younger players more opportunity.

Green and Okoronkwo are younger players and both should have at least a rotational role. Green is a hybrid player who can line up both outside and inside in passing situations, which he will likely continue doing with the Texans, but he’s mostly struggled throughout his 4-year career, earning below average grades from PFF in all four seasons. He had 6.5 sacks last season, but did so largely on volume, as he ranked 17th among all NFL defensive linemen with 847 snaps played, but had just a 6.6% pressure rate and finished in the just the 18th percentile of defensive linemen on PFF in overall grade. He’s still only going into his age 25 season and could be more effective in a smaller role in Houston, but that’s not a guarantee.

Okoronkwo, meanwhile, could prove to be a steal. A 5th round pick by the Rams in 2018, Okoronkwo has barely played, totalling 528 snaps in four seasons in the league, but that was mostly because he was buried on the depth chart on a talented defense and he made the most of his limited action, playing at a high level against the run and pressuring quarterbacks at a 12.5% rate. Okoronkwo played a career high 255 snaps last season, totaling 2 sacks, 3 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate, and finished in the 86th percentile among edge defenders on PFF. He’s a projection to a larger role and he won’t have as much talent around him in Houston as he did with the Rams, but could easily be an above average player on 400-500 snaps.

With Greenard seemingly about to break out and four other players being added to the position this off-season, veteran Jordan Jenkins could find himself the odd man out, especially since none of his scheduled 3 million dollar salary is guaranteed. A third round pick in 2016 by the Jets, Jenkins has mostly been a solid rotational player throughout his career, but he’s missed 10 games over the past two seasons and is coming off the worst season of his career, finishing in the 9th percentile among edge defenders on PFF. He’s still only going into his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he wouldn’t be more than a solid rotational player even if he did bounce back. With Greenard and Okoronkwo having breakout potential and Jerry Hughes potentially still having some pass rush juice, this is actually a solid position group overall, but they figure to rotate players heavily and not all of their options will be effective.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Texans aren’t as deep on the interior of their defensive line, so Rasheem Green could line up inside more often than on the edge. Aside from adding 5th round pick Thomas Booker, the Texans didn’t address this position this off-season, so they’ll be counting on getting more out of holdovers Maliek Collins (628 snaps), Ross Blacklock (457 snaps), and Roy Lopez (502 snaps). Collins is the only one of the trio to even earn a middling grade from PFF, but he’s been inconsistent throughout his 6-year career, finishing well below average on PFF in three of those seasons, including just a 4th percentile finish in 2020.

Collins has especially struggled against the run in his career, though he’s been somewhat impressive as a pass rusher, totaling 17 sacks, 34 hits, and a 7.5% pressure rate in 88 career games. That pressure rate jumped to 8.5% in 2021 and the Texans opted to retain him on a 2-year, 17 million dollar extension this off-season, so clearly they believe he can keep that up, but he could just as easily regress (his pressure rate was 4.4% in 2020) and he figures to not be much of a factor against the run regardless.

Lopez and Blacklock, meanwhile, are both recent draft picks who haven’t shown much in their brief careers, but still potentially have upside. Blacklock, the 40th overall pick in 2020, would seem to have the most upside, but he was horrendous as a rookie, finishing dead last among 139 eligible interior defenders on PFF and, while his pass rush ability improved to middling in 2021, his run defense continued to be a significant problem. He could take another step forward in his third year in 2022, but he has a long way to go to even be a middling rotational player. That’s even more embarrassing for the Texans when you consider that he was selected with the second round pick acquired in the DeAndre Hopkins trade.

Lopez, meanwhile, was a 6th round pick in 2021 and struggled both as a run stopper and a pass rusher as a rookie. A late round pick, it’s very possible Lopez never develops into a useful contributor, but he’ll get another shot in a thin position group in 2022. It’s very possible the Texans add at least one more veteran free agent to this group this off-season, but for now, this looks like a very thin and underwhelming position group, especially if Maliek Collins regresses after a solid season in 2021 and if neither of their young players takes a step forward.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Texans’ off ball linebackers were very underwhelming last season as well. The only player at the position who earned even a middling grade from PFF was Zach Cunningham, who played just 493 snaps before being cut mid-season for disciplinary reasons. Kamu Grugier-Hill (778 snaps), Christian Kirksey (790 snaps), and Neville Hewitt (325 snaps) all saw action for the Texans last season and all three return this season, but none played well enough to be locked into a starting role in 2022 and the Texans added a pair of players to the mix this off-season, signing Jalen Reeves-Maybin to a deal worth 7.5 million over 2 years and using a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Christian Harris.

Reeves-Maybin was only middling last season in the first significant action of his career (615 snaps), after playing 685 underwhelming defensive snaps across his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, as mostly a special teams player, so he’s an underwhelming option as well. Kirksey is the only one of the bunch with any real track record of success, but his last above average season on PFF was in 2017, before an injury plagued stretch that has limited him to just 33 of 65 possible games in four seasons since.

Kirksey did play 13 games last season, but he now heads into his age 30 season, so he’s not a reliable option going forward. Hewitt and Grugier-Hill, meanwhile, have never earned an above average grade from PFF for a season in which they were a starter. Harris is the only one of the bunch with any real upside, but it’s unclear how much action he’ll see as a rookie. Even with some off-season additions, this is still a very underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

One bright spot of the Texans’ season last year was the emergence of slot cornerback Tavierre Thomas, a former 2018 undrafted free agent who was primarily a special teamer in his first three seasons in the league with the Browns, playing 237 defensive snaps total, but who proved to be a diamond in the rough in his first season in Houston. He only played six snaps in the first three games of the season, but he was made the primary slot cornerback in week 4 and finished the season as PFF’s 12th ranked cornerback, while allowing the 2nd fewest yards per route run of any slot cornerback in the league (0.50). He’s a complete one-year wonder and could easily regress in 2022, but he’s the heavy favorite to keep the slot cornerback job.

The downside of Thomas’ emergence on the slot was that the Texans had to move natural slot cornerback Desmond King to the outside, where he struggled mightily, finishing as PFF’s 116th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible. King earned an above average grade from PFF in each of his first four seasons prior to last season, so he has obvious bounce back potential on the slot, but he doesn’t have a clear path to playing time anywhere, with the Texans adding a pair of outside cornerbacks this off-season. It’s possible the Texans give King a look at safety this season.

Those two outside cornerbacks are Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson and both have a good chance to make a positive impact. Stingley was the 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and, while he was a polarizing prospect, struggling through injuries in 2020 and 2021 after being arguably the top cornerback in college football as a freshman in 2019, he comes with a sky high upside and could develop into one of the top cornerbacks in the league if all goes well. He comes with a lot of downside as well, but it’s not hard to see him making an impact as a rookie.

Nelson, meanwhile, is a proven veteran who is still only going into his age 29 season and should continue being an above average starter, after earning an average or better grade from PFF in each of the past six seasons (84 starts), including a career best 7th ranked finish in 2019. At the very least, he’ll be a capable starter for a team that got poor play from all of their outside cornerbacks last season and he could easily prove to be a steal on a 2-year, 9 million dollar contract. The Falcons also took a flyer on ex-Falcons cornerback Kendall Sheffield this off-season, but the 2019 4th round pick struggled mightily in his first two seasons with the Falcons, before being limited to just 53 snaps last season, so he’s unlikely to make much of an impact. If he even makes the team, he would be a reserve along with Desmond King.

Part of why King might have a better chance of playing at safety is because the Texans have an unsettled position group there, but the Texans did use a second round pick on safety Jalen Pitre and he figures to have the inside track to at least one of the starting roles, even if he’s far from a guarantee to be effective as a rookie. At the other spot, veteran Eric Murray may be the favorite, but he struggled in 11 starts last season, finishing 90th out of 98 eligible safeties on PFF and he’s never been more than a middling player in any of his six seasons in the league.

Justin Reid (780 snaps) and Lonnie Johnson (542 snaps) didn’t return from last year’s safety group, but both earned below average grades from PFF, so neither will be a big loss. Without those two, Murray will likely see competition from free agent addition MJ Stewart, a former bust of a 2nd round pick cornerback by the Buccaneers who flashed in limited action as a safety for the Browns in 2021. He’s never played more than 342 snaps in a season in four years in the league, but he’s only going into his age 27 season and has always had talent, so it’s possible he ends up as a late bloomer, even if he’s obviously a projection to a larger role.

The Texans also bring back reserves Terrence Brooks (180 snaps) and Jonathan Owens (168 snaps). Brooks is a career special teamer who has never surpassed 280 defensive snaps in a season, but Owens is a 2018 undrafted free agent who at least showed some promise last season, albeit in a very limited role. Having played just 10 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season, he’s extremely inexperienced, but he may be worth a longer look if the Texans’ other safety options struggle this season. The additions of Nelson, Stingley, and Pitre should make this group better by default, but, at the same time, their top player a year ago, Tavierre Thomas, could easily regress after his out-of-nowhere breakout season in 2021.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

By far the biggest strength of this Texans team last season was their special teams unit, ranking 9th in special teams DVOA, and this unit should remain their biggest strength in 2022, with their key players from a year ago all returning. Ka’imi Fairbairn and Cameron Johnston return as kicker and punter and Tremon Smith and Desmond King return as kick returner and above average, after posting solid averages of 25.6 yards per return and 9.1 yards per return respectively last season. Smith is also an elite core special teams player, ranking in the top-50 special teamers on PFF last season, along with Neville Hewitt and MJ Stewart, who also return in 2022. This should remain an above average unit.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Texans should be better than a year ago, but they’re starting from a lower base point than most realize. Their -172 point differential last season was 3rd worst in the league and would have been even worse if they didn’t still manage to have a +3 turnover margin, which made them the only team in the league with a positive turnover margin and a point differential worse than -60. Turnover margins are not predictive on a week-to-week or year-to-year basis and, in terms of efficiency ratings, which are much more predictive, the Texans ranked dead last in 2021, more than five points worse than the next worst team last season.

On top of that, even though they’re improved, they’re mostly improved by default, as this remains one of, if not the weakest roster in the NFL, with below average units at most position groups. They figure to be among the worst teams in the league again this season and have a good shot at the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which isn’t necessarily a bad result because this is a team still rebuilding that needs to find a franchise quarterback. Even in a best case scenario, it’s very hard to see this team competing for a playoff spot in 2022, especially not in the loaded AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Texans aren’t significantly improved from a year ago, when they needed some fluky things to go their way to win more than a couple games, in a season in which they finished dead last in overall efficiency by a significant amount. They could easily be the worst team in the league this season.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in AFC South

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