2022 Week 1 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

The Cardinals are one of my top picks to regress this season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

Making matters worse, the Cardinals will be even further short-handed this week, missing top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins due to suspension and his replacement Rondale Moore due to injury, as well as injured starting cornerback Trayvon Mullen, while starting tight end Zach Ertz, top interior defender JJ Watt, starting cornerback Byron Murphy, and starting left guard Justin Pugh all legitimately questionable for this team. On top of that, the Cardinals are facing a Chiefs team that should be among the best in the league again. 

The Chiefs losing top wide receiver Tyreek Hill this off-season got a lot of attention, but they did a good job reloading at the position, giving them a much deeper group than a year ago, even if it lacks a true #1 receiver, while their defense figures to be much better than their 29th ranked finish in defensive efficiency a year ago. Most of their defensive struggles were concentrated early last season when they had significant injury problems and, once they turned it around defensively, the Chiefs went on to win 11 of their final 13 games, with their only two losses coming against the AFC winning Bengals. 

I expect the Chiefs to continue being one of the best teams in the league even without Hill and have them calculated as 10-point favorites in Arizona against a Cardinals team that was likely to be below average this season even before all of their recent injuries. This line has moved up to Kansas City -6 due to the Cardinals’ injury situation, but it hasn’t moved high enough and we’re still getting enough line value with the Chiefs for them to be worth betting. The only thing preventing this from being a bigger play is that the Chiefs have to play again four days after this game in a huge divisional matchup against the Chargers on Thursday Night Football and could overlook this game a little bit as a result, with favorites covering at just a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football historically. 

That might not matter as much in week 1 though, especially since Andy Reid coached teams typically do well with extra time to plan, going 36-22-1 ATS in that spot all time, which might cancel out the other trend. Depending on who ultimately is ruled out for the Cardinals and where this line ends up, I may consider increasing this bet even with the Chiefs potentially in an unfavorable situation. It’s worth locking in a bet at -6 even before knowing the final injury report because the Chiefs should cover either way and this line is likely to rise before gametime.

Update: Watt is expected to be out for the Cardinals, which is their most important absence, but this line is still at 6 in some places, so I want to lock in a bigger bet.

Kansas City Chiefs 38 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: High

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

The Patriots are my top pick this week, for a number of reasons. For one, they are underdogs of 3.5 points, which is the line that covers most often, about 53.2% of the time historically. That’s not a coincidence. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is, which seems to be the case here, with the majority of the public money coming in on the favored Dolphins.

It’s understandable why the public likes the Dolphins, as the Dolphins beat the Patriots twice last season and got better this off-season, while the Patriots got worse, but that’s based on some misconceptions. While the Dolphins did win both head-to-head matchups last season, the Patriots were actually the better team overall, finishing a game ahead of the Dolphins in the standings. Historically, teams fare pretty well in a rematch with a divisional opponent who had a worse overall record the previous season but who won both head-to-head matchups, winning the third matchup more often than not (51.5%) and covering at a 54.3% rate. 

It’s true the Dolphins got better this off-season while the Patriots got worse, but, despite the result of their two head-to-head matchups last season, the Dolphins are trying to close a gap between these two teams this off-season, rather than trying to pull ahead further. That gap is also bigger than their records suggest, with the Patriots ranking 3rd in overall efficiency last season, while the Dolphins ranked 25th, despite facing an easier schedule.

There has been a lot of concern around the Patriots’ offense this off-season, with the departure of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, but I think that concern is overblown, putting too much stock into practice reports and the pre-season, and the Patriots have the talent on offense to be better than a year ago, with Mac Jones in his second season and a better receiving corps, even after ranking an impressive 7th in offensive efficiency a year ago. The Patriots are likely to be worse on defense without top cornerback JC Jackson, who signed with the Chargers this off-season, but they’re starting from a pretty high base point, ranking 5th in defensive efficiency a year ago.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, should be better on offense, with Tua Tagovailoa going into his third season, with Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson being added to his receiving corps, Chase Edmonds being added to his backfield, and Terron Armstead and Connor Williams being added to his offensive line, but they’re starting from a pretty low base point, ranking 26th in offensive efficiency last season and if Tagovailoa doesn’t take a big step forward, the Dolphins are likely to be a middling offense at best. 

The Dolphins had a solid defense last season, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, and they return all of their key players from a year ago, but they could still be worse, losing defensive minded head coach Brian Flores and likely to have more injuries than a year ago, when they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense. The injury bug has already damaged this group in a significant way this season, knocking starting cornerback Byron Jones out for the start of the season, a big absence in this game.

Flores is also a former Patriots assistant which may have given the Dolphins the edge in their matchups with the Patriots last season, despite being overall a significantly worse team. The Dolphins are now coached by former 49ers assistant Mike McDaniel, who is coaching his first career game against Bill Belichick and doing so with a young (age 24) quarterback, two situations in which Belichick’s defenses have thrived throughout his tenure in New England. The Patriots have a good chance to pull this straight up upset, even on the road, and, if they lose, this should still be a close game, so I love getting the full 3.5. This is my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 23 Miami Dolphins 21 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: New England +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

The Steelers have made the post-season in back-to-back years with records of 12-4 and 9-7-1 respectively, but, in order to do that, they’ve needed to go 7-2 and 8-2-1 in one score games in the two seasons respectively, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2022. The Steelers’ defense will probably be better than the 20th ranked unit they were in terms of efficiency last season, but they’re unlikely to be as good as their 3rd ranked finish in efficiency in 2020, while their offense figures to continue to struggle like they have the past two seasons, when they have ranked 28th and 30th in offensive efficiency. 

The Bengals, meanwhile, ranked just 17th in overall efficiency in the regular season last year and needed to win the turnover battle to win three close post-season games, which is not sustainable long-term, but they are significantly improved on the offensive line this off-season, which was a huge weakness for them last season, holding back what should have been an elite offensive unit, given their skill position talent and their quarterback play. Despite their offensive line improvements and the Steelers offensive struggles, the Bengals are just 6.5-point home favorites over the Steelers.

Including playoffs, 10 of the Steelers’ 13 losses over the past two seasons would have covered this 6.5-point spread and the Bengals are the caliber of team that should be able to give them another 7+ point loss, as they did in 14-point and 31-point victories last season. My calculated line actually has the Bengals favored in this one by 12.5 points, so we’re getting quite a bit of line value with them as just 6.5-point home favorites. This is one of my favorite plays of the week, as I don’t expect this to be a close game.

Cincinnati Bengals 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Baltimore is one of my top Super Bowl sleepers, a year after missing the playoffs at 8-9 in an injury riddled 2021 season, following a 24-8 stretch from 2019-2020, but their chances of going all the way are going to depend largely on health, with as many key players coming off significant injuries as any team in the league. The Ravens have time to get healthy and make a run later in the season, but they enter the season in pretty rough shape injury wise and, as a result, I think they are overvalued as 7-point road favorites in New York against the Jets.

Stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley is doubtful after missing most of last season with an ankle injury. Running back Gus Edwards and edge defender Tyus Bowser will miss at least the first few games of the season recovering from a torn ACL and a torn achilles respectively, both of which occurred last season. Rookies David Ojabo (2nd round) and Travis Jones (3rd round) are also out to start the season, while starting cornerback Marcus Peters and their other top running back JK Dobbins are both legitimately questionable, both returning from ACL tears that cost them the entirety of 2021.

Despite all of the Ravens injury problems, I don’t think there is quite enough here for the Jets to be worth betting. My calculated line has them as 5.5-point home underdogs, which isn’t significant enough line value compared to this 7-point line. Part of that is because the Jets have injury problems of their own, with quarterback Zach Wilson being replaced by veteran backup Joe Flacco to start the season, who might not be a downgrade, but who also is a very underwhelming starting option at this point of his career, while rookie 4th round pick Max Mitchell will be forced into a starting role in week 1, with Mekhi Becton out for the season and free agent replacement Duane Brown now hurt as well. The Jets are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t bet on them.

Baltimore Ravens 24 New York Jets 19

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week for me. Even without Deshaun Watson, I have the Browns three points better than the Panthers in my roster rankings, possessing one of the league’s best rosters around the quarterback and a capable high end backup quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. On the road in Carolina, that suggests the Browns should be favored by about a point or two and this line is even, so we’re getting some line value with Cleveland, but a pretty insignificant amount.

On top of that, this is a big revenge game situation for Baker Mayfield in his first game in Carolina after being traded by the Browns this off-season, despite winning the franchise’s first playoff game since their return to the league and playing through injury for much of the subsequent 2021 season. Mayfield was a much better quarterback in 2020 when healthy and should prove that in his new home in Carolina, even if it doesn’t lead to a playoff berth, with a questionable roster around him. I’m still taking the Browns, but we’re hardly getting value with them and there’s a good chance the Panthers get a better than average performance from Baker Mayfield, who has likely had this game circled since being traded.

Update: Right tackle Jack Conklin and his backup Chris Hubbard are out for this game, so I’m flipping this pick, but still for a no confidence pick.

Carolina Panthers 24 Cleveland Browns 23

Pick against the spread: Carolina PK

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Washington Commanders (0-0)

This line favors the Commanders at home by 2.5, suggesting the odds makers view these teams as roughly even. In my season preview, I have the Commanders winning nine games and the Jaguars winning five, so I think this line undervalues Washington. Jacksonville is the healthier team, with Washington starting the season without a pair of key starters on defense, edge defender Chase Young and safety Kamren Curl, but their offense should be better than a year ago, with an upgrade at quarterback, a significantly improved receiving corps, and a healthier offensive line, while their defense is still a solid unit even not at full strength, which they weren’t for most of last season.

Jacksonville is better this year than a year ago as well, but they’re starting from a much lower base point, finishing 31st in overall efficiency and winning three games a year ago, while Washington won seven games and finished 22nd in overall efficiency. Trevor Lawrence has a good chance to take a big step forward in year two with a better coaching staff and supporting cast, but, despite a massive off-season spending spree, they aren’t as improved as they could be and still have a roster that lacks high end talent and that ranks about four points behind Washington in my roster rankings, even with Washington’s defensive injuries. My calculated line has Washington favored by about 5.5 points, so we’re getting good line value with them, crossing the key number of three. This isn’t a big play on Washington, but I like the value here.

Washington Commanders 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Washington -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

The Rams are defending Super Bowl champions, but instead it’s the Bills getting the majority of the hype coming into this game, entering the season as odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl and entering this week one game in Los Angeles against the defending champions as 2.5-point road favorites. In some ways, the hype the Bills are getting is understandable. They finished the regular season last year ranked #1 in overall efficiency and point differential and, while it was the Rams who eventually got it done in the post-season, last year’s playoff games were as close as any in recent memory, with the Rams winning each of their final three post-season games by just a field goal, while the Bills lost in overtime to the Chiefs, who lost in overtime to the Bengals, who came up a field goal short against the Rams in the Super Bowl. 

The Rams were the team who came out victorious last year, but had a few things gone differently, numerous different teams, including the Bills, could have come out victorious. The Bills also got better this off-season, most notably adding top edge defender Von Miller from the Rams, while the Rams lost stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth to retirement, in addition to the departure of Miller. However, I still think we are getting some line value with the Rams as home underdogs, as my calculated line is even. 

Von Miller changing sides seems to be getting a lot of attention in this matchup, likely leading to the Bills being a publicly backed favorite, but the Rams are unlikely to be significantly worse on defense without him, having added the talented Bobby Wagner to fill a big need at inside linebacker, while the Bills didn’t bring back a pair of key edge rushers from a year ago, Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison, and are going to be without top cornerback Tre’Davious White for the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered late last season. White is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when healthy and the Bills were noticeably worse defensively without him down the stretch last season, so that’s a huge absence for them.

In normal circumstances, there wouldn’t be quite enough line value with the Rams at +2.5 for them to be worth betting, but there are a couple circumstances working in their favor in this matchup. For one, defending Super Bowl champs tend to fare pretty well in their home opener, playing in front of their home crowd for the first time since winning the Super Bowl, going 12-4-1 ATS in that spot since 2005, including 9-2-1 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown. 

I would expect the Rams to play similarly well today, perhaps even more so, likely feeling disrespected as underdogs, just the second time a defending Super Bowl champion has been home underdogs in week 1 over the past 20 years (the Broncos beat the Panthers straight up as underdogs in 2016). The Rams will also benefit from being a Pacific time zone team playing an Atlantic time zone team at night, a spot in which teams cover at over a 60% rate, as teams accustomed to the Atlantic time zone tend to get tired and see their performance drop off in the second half of night games as a result. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Rams money line and against the spread in this one.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Buffalo Bills 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: Medium