2022 Week 4 NFL Picks

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)

The Colts surprisingly got their first victory of the season last week in an upset win over the Chiefs, but the Chiefs missed a makeable field goal and extra point in the 3-point loss, so the Chiefs easily could have won, even though they lost the turnover battle. In terms of first down rate and yards per play, the Colts lost by 5.50% and 1.50 and those are much more predictive week-to-week than turnovers and opponents’ missed kicks. 

That win also puts the Colts in a tough spot this week, as teams tend to struggle off of big home upset wins, covering the spread at just a 41.5% rate all-time the week after a home win as underdogs of 5 points or more. Making matters even worse for the Colts, they have to play another game against the Broncos in four days and favorites cover at just a 42.9% rate before Thursday Night Football. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Colts overlook the 1-2 Titans a little bit in this spot.

That being said, I am not going to bet on the Titans this week because of all of their injuries. Already without talented left tackle Taylor Lewan and top edge defender Harold Landry for the season, the Titans will also be without top linebacker Zach Cunningham and talented starting safety Amani Hooker in this game, while the Colts could get back stud linebacker Shaq Leonard for the first time this season, which would be a huge re-addition.

I’m still taking the Titans because I think this line is fair, favoring the Colts by 3.5 points, a bigger line than you might think, given that 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and because the Colts are in such a bad spot. However, the only way I would bet on the Titans is if not only Leonard didn’t play for the Colts, but also stud interior defender DeForest Buckner, who is considered a gametime decision. If they’re both out and this line stays above three, I would probably bet on the Titans, but, unless that happens, this pick is for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

Coming into the season, I expected the Eagles to be one of the best teams in the league, projecting them to win 12 games and tie for the best record in the NFC. The Eagles were coming off of a playoff appearance a season ago, finishing 9th in overall efficiency, and got significantly better on both sides of the ball this off-season due to additions like AJ Brown, Haason Reddick, and James Bradberry, which seemed likely to vault them into the top tier of the NFL. So far, that has been the case as the Eagles are the NFL’s last unbeaten team, while ranking 10th, 2nd, and 4th in offensive, defensive, and overall schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Jaguars have also gotten out to an impressive start, sitting at 2-1 with a pair of multi-score wins and a schedule adjusted efficiency that ranks 6th in the NFL, but they’re still a couple points behind the Eagles in overall efficiency and I think they have much less staying power, with a roster that is not as good as their impressive to start to the season. While the Eagles are among the best teams in my roster rankings, the Jaguars rank nine points behind them as more of a middle of the road team. This line is decently high, favoring the Eagles by 6.5 at home, but, with the Eagles being one of the best teams in the league and the Jaguars being more middle of the road, I have the Eagles calculated as 10-point home favorites in this game, giving us good line value with them. This isn’t a big play, but the Eagles are worth betting in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at New York Giants: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-1) at New York Giants (2-1)

Expected by many to be the worst team in the league, the Bears are a surprising 2-1, but if you look at how they are winning games, it’s not hard to see how they could still be the worst team in the league going forward. In both of their wins, the Bears have lost the first down rate and yards per play battle, by 0.41% and 1.30 against the 49ers and by 1.39% and 0.08 against the Texans, while their one loss to the Packers was not competitive, with the Bears losing the first down rate and yards per play battle by 10.85% and 0.71 respectively.

That loss to the Packers came by a bigger margin than their combined margin of victory in their two wins, leading to them having a -5 point differential on the season, despite a +1 turnover margin, making them one of just four teams with a negative point differential and a positive turnover margin (Steelers, Cardinals, Texans). Turnover margins are not nearly as predictive week-to-week as first downs and yards per play and, in terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards, the Bears rank dead last in the league, with well below average marks on offense (26th), defense (26th), and special teams (22nd).

The Giants also aren’t as good as their 2-1 record, but they looked like the significantly better of these two teams coming into the season and, even if they have been mediocre, they still have played better than the Bears have thus far this season. They have a 4 point edge in my roster rankings, so they are the significantly better team overall. Despite that, they are favored by just a field goal here at home, so we’re getting good line value with them, with my calculated line favoring them by 6 points. This isn’t a big play, but the Giants are bettable at -3.

New York Giants 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Falcons were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this season and they may still end up there, but they have exceeded expectations through the first three games of the season, particularly on offense, where they rank 2nd in first down rate and 7th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, which are among the most predictive stats week-to-week. I don’t expect them to be that good all season, but they should have a favorable matchup this week against a Browns defense that ranks 18th in both yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed, despite playing well below average offenses in all three games thus far this season. 

When adjusted for schedule, the Browns rank just 31st in defensive efficiency and it’s possible the Falcons, even if they ultimately end up being a mediocre offense, are still the toughest offense the Browns have faced thus far these season by default, having played the Panthers (32nd in offensive efficiency), Jets (31st), and Steelers (27th) in the first three weeks of the season. Making matters worse, the Browns will be without a pair of key defenders Jadeveon Clowney and Anthony Walker and could be without their most important defender, Myles Garrett, who didn’t practice all week after a car accident.

The Browns should move the ball pretty well in this game though, entering this game ranked 6th in first down rate and 3rd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency against a Falcons defense that is mediocre at best. The Browns are on the road, but my roster rankings have them about three points better than the Falcons, even without their key defenders, so this line favoring the Browns by a point is about right. I’m taking the Falcons for now, but if Garrett ends up playing and this line doesn’t move drastically, I will probably change my pick. This is a really close one and Garrett’s presence, even at less than 100%, would be huge for the Browns’ defense.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Cleveland Browns 26

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +1

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

A week ago on the early line, the Cardinals were favored by a field goal on the road in this game in Carolina. At that number, I would have liked the Panthers a lot. The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average.

They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’ll also be without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

As field goal road favorites on the early line, the Cardinals were clearly overrated a week ago, but we’ve lost a lot of value in the past week, with this line dropping down to even. It’s not necessarily that the Cardinals’ aren’t overrated still, but the Panthers may be as well, after picking up their first win of the season last week against the Saints in a game in which they primarily won because of a return touchdown and a +3 turnover margin, losing the first down rate battle by 8.89% and the yards per play battle by 1.69, which are much more predictive week-to-week than turnovers.

In terms of overall efficiency, which are based on first downs and yards per play, the Panthers rank just 26th on the season, which isn’t too far behind the 22nd ranked Cardinals, but I still have about two points between these two teams in my roster rankings, so we aren’t getting much line value with the Panthers on an even line. I’m still taking the Panthers for pick ‘em purposes, in part because the Cardinals could overlook them with a much tougher game against the Eagles on deck, but there isn’t nearly enough here for the Panthers to be worth betting.

Carolina Panthers 17 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina PK

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2) in London

Typically, the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, as the better team tends to be better equipped to deal with playing a game after an unusual week, going 26-14 ATS all-time. That should be especially true in this matchup between the Vikings and the Saints in London, where the Vikings are undervalued as favorites of only three points. The Vikings are off to a significantly better start than the Saints, going 2-1 with a +3 point differential against a tougher schedule than the Saints, who are 1-2 with a -17 point differential.

The Vikings’ defense and special teams have been mediocre, ranking 21st and 20th in efficiency respectively, even when adjusted for schedule, but the Vikings’ offense ranks 3rd in first down rate, which is the most predictive offensive stat, and, when adjusted for schedule, the Vikings lead the league in offensive efficiency, which is more predictive than defense and special teams. It’s only been three games, so that’s not to say the Vikings are the best offense in the league, and they have had an absence of big plays, with just one play over 40 yards all season, but big plays tend to be much less predictive than first downs and my roster rankings have the Vikings as a well above offense as well.

The Saints, meanwhile, could easily be 0-3 if not for a late comeback to win by one against the Falcons, with their two losses both coming by double digits to the Buccaneers and Panthers. They rank just 21st in overall schedule adjusted efficiency, while the Vikings rank 2nd on the strength of their offense, and are six points behind the Saints in my roster rankings as well. That’s in part because the Vikings are the healthier team, getting back Harrison Smith from a one-game absence and otherwise being in good shape, while the Saints are missing a pair of expected starting offensive lineman (Trevor Penning and Andrus Peat), starting quarterback Jameis Winston, top receiver Michael Thomas, and talented starting safety Marcus Maye. With the Vikings getting good value in a good spot, they are worth a bet this week, one I will increase if this line drops down to 2.5, where it is trending.

Minnesota Vikings 24 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The Dolphins are 3-0, so it may be surprising to see them as 4-point underdogs in Cincinnati against a 1-2 Bengals team, especially since about 30% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer. However, the Bengals could also easily be 3-0. They lost week 1 in a game in which they lost the turnover battle by 5, but still could have won if they had made one of two makeable game winning kicks, winning the first down rate and yards per play battle by 11.36% and 0.22 respectively, which are both much more predictive than turnovers. The Bengals then followed that up by losing by a field goal on the road in a close game in Dallas. They may have the inferior record, but they still have a two point edge in my roster rankings, so this line is about right.

The Bengals also have a huge advantage of being at home on a short week, especially in a non-divisional game. Non-divisional home favorites cover at a 63.6% rate all-time, including 64.3% as favorites of more than a field goal. We aren’t getting any real line value with the Bengals, but they should be the right side, especially with the Dolphins coming off of a huge home upset win over the Bills, a win that is not as impressive when you consider how many defensive starters the Bills were missing. Teams cover at just a 40.6% after a win as home underdogs of 4.5 points or more. This isn’t a big play because of the lack of line value, but this is worth betting based on the great spot the Bengals are in.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -4

Confidence: Medium