2023 NFL Picks

Super Bowl LVIII Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) in Super Bowl LVIII

The 49ers were by far the better of these two teams in the regular season, finishing the year with a +1.64 yards per play differential, a +6.50% first down rate differential, and a +39.4% DVOA, as opposed to +0.82, +3.55%, and +17.9% for the Chiefs. These two teams have been more even in the post-season, with the Chiefs having a -0.31 yards per play differential and a +2.87% first down rate differential, as opposed to +0.15 and -2.47% for the 49ers, but the 49ers are only slight favorites in this Super Bowl matchup, favored by 2.5 points, and the 49ers big advantage in their regular season numbers suggests they should be favored by more than that, even with both teams being more even in the post-season. The 49ers also have a 4.5-point edge in my roster rankings.

However, Patrick Mahomes has been close to an automatic bet as an underdog in his career, with a 10-1 ATS record and a 9-2 straight up record. I ignored this because it was still a small sample size and took the Bills as 2.5-point favorites and the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs in the Chiefs’ last two games, but it’s becoming apparent that Mahomes should be picked against the spread every time he’s an underdog unless there’s a good reason not to, much like the quarterback he’s often compared against Tom Brady, who went 36-17 ATS and 31-22 straight up in his career as an underdog.

The Chiefs also have the experience edge in this game, with head coach Andy Reid having been to four previous Super Bowls as a head coach and Patrick Mahomes having been to three, as opposed to one Super Bowl appearance as a head coach for 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan and none for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. On top of that, Andy Reid has been a strong bet in his career as a head coach when given an extra week to gameplan, going 36-24 ATS against the spread. The Chiefs aren’t worth a big bet unless we can get a full field goal against the spread with them, but at the very least the money line seems like a good value at +115.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2.5

Confidence: Low

2023 Week 18 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

MIA 28 (+3) BUF 26 Upset Pick +130

High Confidence Picks

None

Medium Confidence Picks

SEA 26 (-2.5) ARZ 21

DAL 30 WAS 20 (+13.5)

TB 16 CAR 14 (+4.5)

JAX 24 TEN 23 (+4)

DET 27 (-3) MIN 20

NE 17 (-1.5) NYJ 13

Low Confidence Picks

GB 24 CHI 23 (+3)

PHI 23 (-5.5) NYG 17

No Confidence Picks

LV 23 (-3) DEN 20

NO 20 ATL 17 (+3)

HOU 24 IND 23 (+1.5)

PIT 20 BAL 17 (+3)

CIN 20 CLE 13 (+7.5)

SF 20 (-4) LAR 16

LAC 23 KC 20 (+3.5)

2023 Week 17 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

KC 27 (-6.5) CIN 17

High Confidence Picks

None

Medium Confidence Picks

CLE 17 (-7) NYJ 6

BUF 23 NE 13 (+14)

JAX 16 CAR 14 (+4)

NO 17 (+2.5) TB 16 Upset Pick +120

CHI 17 ATL 16 (+3)

Low Confidence Picks

PHI 26 (-11.5) ARZ 13

SEA 24 (-3.5) PIT 19

DEN 19 LAC 17 (+3.5)

MIN 27 (-1) GB 24

BAL 28 MIA 26 (+3.5)

No Confidence Picks

SF 31 (-13.5) WAS 17

LAR 25 NYG 20 (+6)

IND 23 LV 20 (+3.5)

HOU 27 TEN 23 (+4.5)

DAL 27 DET 23 (+5)

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: 2023 Week 17 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (6-9) at Cleveland Browns (10-5)

This line, favoring the Browns by a touchdown, is about right and if this was a weekend game I wouldn’t have much interest betting on either side, but the Browns are at a huge advantage on Thursday Night Football, as it’s very tough for an inferior team like the Jets to go on the road and face a superior non-divisional opponent on a short week. In total, non-divisional home favorites are 48-33 ATS (59.3%) on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, and that becomes 22-12 ATS (64.7%) when we look at favorites of 6 points or more like the Browns are here. This isn’t a big play because we’re not getting much if any line value with the Browns, but they’re in a good enough spot to be worth betting just on that.

Cleveland Browns 17 New York Jets 6

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: Medium

2023 Week 16 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

CAR 17 (+4) GB 16 Upset Pick +170

High Confidence Picks

LAR 27 (-4) NO 19

PIT 20 (+2.5) CIN 17 Upset Pick +125

Medium Confidence Picks

BUF 26 LAC 17 (+12.5)

WAS 17 (+3) NYJ 16 Upset Pick +140

HOU 17 (+3) CLE 16 Upset Pick +135

SEA 24 TEN 23 (+3.5)

Low Confidence Picks

DET 28 MIN 27 (+3)

PHI 28 (-13.5) NYG 13

KC 28 (-10) LV 16

CHI 26 (-4) ARZ 20

SF 27 BAL 23 (+6)

No Confidence Picks

JAX 26 (-1) TB 24

ATL 23 (-2.5) IND 20

DEN 21 (-7) NE 13

MIA 24 DAL 23 (+1.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2023 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

The Bengals have surprisingly won three straight games with backup quarterback Jake Browning under center, but two of those games required overtime and I expect things to be tougher for Jake Browning going forward, as teams now have more tape on him, going into his 5th start in the league. Browning also faces a much tougher defense this week in Pittsburgh against the Steelers than he has in any of his three wins (Jaguars, Colts, Vikings), a Steelers defense that flustered Browning and led a defeat of the Bengals in Cincinnati in Browning’s first start a few weeks ago. 

The Steelers are without starting quarterback Kenny Pickett in this one, but Pickett wasn’t playing well anyway, so backup Mason Rudolph isn’t much of a downgrade. Conversely, the Bengals lost top wide receiver JaMarr Chase and stud defensive tackle DJ Reader to injury last week and are a much worse team without those two, which this line doesn’t seem to take into account, with the line shifting from Pittsburgh -1.5 on the early line to Cincinnati -2.5 in the last week. 

The Steelers aren’t at full strength, but Reader and Chase are bigger absences than anyone on Pittsburgh’s side and my roster rankings have these two teams about two points apart, so we’re getting good value with the Steelers as 2.5-point home underdogs. The Bengals are also in a tough spot after last week’s comeback win, as teams cover at just a 36.1% rate after winning as favorites in a game in which they trailed by 14 or more points going into the 4th quarter. Between the line value we’re getting with the Steelers and the bad spot the Bengals are in, I like the Steelers a good amount this week, both against the spread and on the money line.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers: 2023 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)

This might sound crazy since the Chargers were blown out by 42 points last week against the mediocre Raiders, but I actually like the Chargers a good amount this week, as 12.5-point home underdogs against the Bills, a big shift from -9.5 on the early line last week, prior to the Chargers’ blowout loss. The Chargers’ blowout loss last week was largely the result of poor effort and a -5 turnover margin and I expect both of those to be better this week. Teams tend to bounce back after a blowout loss, covering at a 62.4% rate as underdogs after a loss of 35 or more points, as teams tend to be embarrassed and overlooked in that spot, and that should especially be true of the Chargers, who saw head coach Brandon Staley fired over the past week. 

On top of that, turnover margins tend to be very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams with a turnover margin of -5 or worse, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week, leading to underdogs of more than a touchdown covering at a 59.5% rate after a turnover margin of -5 or worse the previous week. The Bills, on the other hand, are coming off of a huge win over the Cowboys and probably won’t bring their best effort for the Chargers. We’re not getting much line value with the Chargers, who are one of the worst teams in the league without Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, who remain out, and my calculated line is Buffalo -11.5, but I like the spot the Chargers are in enough to place a small bet on them against the spread, in a game that should be closer than most expect.

Buffalo Bills 26 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +12.5

Confidence: Medium