San Francisco 49ers 2023 NFL Season Preview

July 11, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Quarterback

The 49ers had a strange year in 2022. It goes back to the 2021 NFL Draft, when they traded away the equivalent of three first round picks, in addition to other later picks, to acquire the 3rd overall pick and select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, who had a sky high upside, but had only made 17 starts at the collegiate level due to injury and COVID cancellations. The 49ers already had Jimmy Garroppolo, who had a lot of success, including a Super Bowl appearance during the 2019 season, but the 49ers felt that Garoppolo benefited significantly from his supporting cast and that Lance gave them a higher upside in the long-term, while providing them with a much needed upgrade at the backup quarterback spot in the short-term, given Garoppolo’s history of injury issues.

The plan was to start Garoppolo in 2021, with Lance as the backup, and then move Garoppolo and his expensive salary the following off-season, allowing the cheaper and hopefully better Trey Lance to take over in 2022 and beyond. Lance was underwhelming with a 59.9 PFF grade in two rookie year starts as a spot starter in the absence of Garoppolo, who led this team to an NFC Championship appearance, but fell just short of a Super Bowl appearance in a game in which Garoppolo had a mediocre performance.

The 49ers seemed sure to move on from Garoppolo last off-season following that loss, but couldn’t find a suitor for Garoppolo’s salary because of his off-season shoulder injury and, with neither side having a better option, Garoppolo surprisingly agreed to return to the 49ers for the 2022 season on a reduced deal as Trey Lance’s backup. That proved to be a smart move for both sides, as Trey Lance unfortunately suffered a season ending injury after just 31 pass attempts in two games (55.0 QB rating, 53.1 PFF grade), giving Garoppolo the chance to get his old job back.

The 49ers started the 2022 season 3-4, but they had a lot of injuries early in the year. As the season went on, they got healthier, while Garoppolo proved to be an upgrade over Lance under center, and, perhaps most importantly, they acquired Christian McCaffrey in a trade from the Panthers in which the 49ers surrendered a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round pick, which proved to be well worth it. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all the credit, as his addition coincided closely with the insertion of Garoppolo into the starting lineup and the return of several other key players from injury, but the 49ers immediately won 4 in a row after McCaffrey became their featured back in week 8.

Those four wins took them to week 12, when it seemed like their season could have suddenly been over, with Garoppolo now suffering a season ending injury, leaving 7th round rookie Brock Purdy as the 49ers starting quarterback for the rest of the season. The 49ers still had one of the best rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position, but Purdy seemed likely to be overmatched in the first action of his career.

Instead, Purdy continued the 49ers’ success, winning his first 8 games to extend the winning streak to 12 games in a row, all the way up to the NFC Championship, when disaster struck again, with Purdy going down with an elbow injury early in the game. Backup Josh Johnson played admirably for a mid-season signing and essentially a 4th string quarterback, but when he too suffered an injury in the NFC Championship, the 49ers were essentially left without a passing attack, without a 3rd active quarterback, as one final quarterback injury that they couldn’t withstand put the nail in the coffin in a 31-7 loss.

The 49ers now head into the 2023 season still with among the most talent in the league around the quarterback, but with an unsettled situation under center. Garoppolo is now gone for good, signing a long-term deal with the Raiders in free agency. Brock Purdy played well enough that he figures to keep his job as long as he’s healthy, as he completed 67.1% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the regular season, and, while he benefited from a lot of talent around him, he was PFF’s 15th ranked quarterback with a 76.6 PFF grade over that stretch as well.

However, Purdy might not be ready for the start of the season after off-season surgery and, even if he is, he might not be 100% right away or he could prove to be a fluke, as we have still only seen a small sample size from him. The 49ers still have Trey Lance, who could start if Purdy isn’t ready for the beginning of the year, but he hasn’t shown a lot in limited action in his career and the 49ers took a flier on another former 3rd overall pick Sam Darnold this off-season and it’s very possible he jumps Lance on the depth chart.

Darnold has just a 78.2 QB rating in 55 starts in his career, but he had a 92.6 QB rating in six starts last season with the Panthers after returning from injury, he has never had anywhere near as good of a coaching staff and supporting cast as he’ll have with the 49ers, and he’s only going into his age 26 season and could still have untapped upside. Both he and Lance have low floors, but they both come with upside as well and it’s very possible Darnold ends up as the week one starter if he beats out Lance and Purdy isn’t ready right away at the beginning of the year. It’s definitely a situation to watch, on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, this team went on a 12-game winning streak starting with the first game in which they used Christian McCaffrey in a feature back role after acquiring him in a trade from the Panthers. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all of the credit, as that coincided with this team getting healthier and getting better quarterback play under center with Jimmy Garoppolo and later Brock Purdy, rather than Trey Lance at the beginning of the year. However, McCaffrey’s impact on this offense still can’t be understated.

In many ways, McCaffrey was almost a perfect fit for the 49ers, who are a run heavy team (9th in the league with 504 rush attempts and just 27th in the league with 512 pass attempts) and who love dual threat players like McCaffrey that can excel in multiple different areas, as McCaffrey does as a runner and a receiver. Because he doesn’t have a real weakness, McCaffrey was a true every down back, playing 46.5 snaps per game in the 13 games after he became the featured back last season.

McCaffrey’s 4.69 YPC and 6 touchdowns on 159 carries was impressive, but his biggest value to this team was as a receiver, as he finished the season second on the team with a 1.86 yards per route run average, 3rd in the NFL among eligible running backs, while turning 65 targets into a 52/464/4 slash line in 11 regular season games and receiving a 91.4 grade from PFF as a receiver, best in the NFL among eligible running backs. That’s pretty par for the course for a player who has exceeded 80 in receiving grade on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, while averaging 1.78 yards per route run and catching 442 passes for 3,756 yards and 22 touchdowns in 75 career games.

McCaffrey has also turned 1,025 carries into 4,726 yards and 38 touchdowns (4.61 YPC) in those 75 games in six seasons in the league. Injuries were a big problem for him in 2020 and 2021, limiting him to 212 touches in 10 games total across those two seasons, and, even if he’s not necessarily an injury prone player, exceeding 300 touches in the other three of his last five seasons in the league, he does play a position with a higher than average injury risk, especially for a player who sees the workload that McCaffrey does. However, McCaffrey is still only going into his age 27 season and is unlikely to start declining this season, so, if he can stay healthy, he should continue playing at a similar level as he has in recent years.

With this being a run-heavy team and McCaffrey seeing extra touches in the passing game, the 49ers do use other running backs to try to keep McCaffrey healthy. Their preferred #2 option at the running back position is Elijah Mitchell, who missed 12 regular season games with injury last season and found himself behind McCaffrey on the depth chart when he returned, but who still received 62 carries in 6 games that he played with McCaffrey on the roster, taking them for 4.69 YPC, not far behind McCaffrey himself, who had 69 carries in those 6 games.

Mitchell was just a 6th round pick in 2021, but he received 207 carries in 11 games as a rookie and took them for a 4.65 YPC average and 5 touchdowns, proving to be a great fit in the 49ers’ zone blocking scheme. He’s not much of a pass catcher, with a career 0.82 yards per route run average, and durability has been a problem for him, as he also missed 6 games as a rookie, but he has shown himself more than capable of playing a part-time role as an early down specialist, allowing the 49ers to be run-heavy and to frequently use McCaffrey in the passing game, without overloading him too much.

If Mitchell gets hurt, behind him on the depth chart the 49ers have 2022 3rd round pick Tyrion Davis-Price, who struggled with a 2.91 YPC on 34 rookie year carries, but who could be better in year two, and 2022 undrafted free agent Jordan Mason, who averaged 6.00 YPC on 43 rookie year carries, as well as a pair of 2023 undrafted free agents Khalan Laborn and Ronald Awatt, who have an outside chance of making this final roster. McCaffrey is obviously the focal point of this backfield, but they have good depth behind him as well and this blocking scheme has a history of getting the most out of overlooked running backs, so the 49ers should be in good shape at this position.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

McCaffrey was added to a receiving corps that already had a lot of playmakers in it and, given that, it’s reasonable to expect that the 49ers other pass catchers would see a statistical drop off when he was added. However, while the 49ers’ other pass catchers did see their target share drop, for the most part their efficiency improved so much with McCaffrey around that they didn’t see a significant drop off in total production.

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings had slash lines that extrapolated to 78/940/5 on 131 targets, 78/981/7 on 119 targets, and 34/437/2 on 58 targets respectively before McCaffrey’s became the featured back. In the 13 games after McCaffrey became the featured back, their slash lines extrapolated to 70/861/2, 68/942/7, and 39/468/0 respectively on target totals of 117, 98, and 60 respectively. Tight end George Kittle had the biggest drop off in target share, from a 116 target pace to a 69 target pace, but he still only saw his extrapolated slash line fall from 85/952/3 to 59/849/13. All four of those aforementioned receivers are back for 2023, along with McCaffrey, so I would expect more of the same, barring a massive drop off in quarterback play.

If anything, Deebo Samuel could be even better in 2023 than he was last season, as last year was a down year for him, as his yards per route run average dropped to 1.69, from 2.51 over his first three seasons in the league from 2019-2021, including 2.98 yards per route run and a 77/1405/6 slash line on 121 targets in 2021 (11.61 yards per target, as opposed to 6.72 yards per target in 2022). He might not bounce back all the way in 2023 and durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 15 games in four seasons in the league and limiting him in several others, but he didn’t need a huge target share to produce at that level in 2021 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he approached that level of production again if he can stay healthy in 2023, even with a lot of other options in this passing game.

Like many of the 49ers’ key players, Deebo Samuel is a dual threat, also adding 597 yards and 11 touchdowns on 101 carries over the past two seasons (5.91 YPC), lining up occasionally as a running back out of the backfield. Brandon Aiyuk is more of a traditional wide receiver, but the 2020 first round pick has developed into an above average one, going from a 60/748/5 slash line, 1.73 yards per route run average, and 80.1 PFF grade as a rookie to 56/816/5, 1.68, and 74.4 respectively in 2021 to 78/1015/8, 1.91, and 80.3 respectively in 2022. He’s not an elite wide receiver, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he could easily continue being an above average wide receiver for years to come.

Jauan Jennings is an underwhelming wide receiver, but he’s a decent option as the #3 wide receiver, averaging 1.38 yards per route run in that role over the past two seasons, after not playing a snap as a 7th round rookie in 2020. He will likely keep that job in 2023, though he could be challenged for the role by Danny Gray, a 2022 3rd round pick who only played 87 snaps as a rookie, but who could be ready for a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023.

Tight end George Kittle is the most likely of this bunch to see a statistical drop off in 2023. As I mentioned, his target share dropped off significantly once McCaffrey was added and, while he had a huge leap in efficiency at the same time, catching 85.5% of his passes for an average of 12.30 yards per attempt and a touchdown every 5.31 targets over a 13-game span, he’s unlikely to continue being quite that good in 2023, in part because no one is ever that good over an extended period of time, but also because he now is heading into his age 30 season and could be begin to decline soon.

Meanwhile, Kittle’s decreased target share is likely to remain, given that he and McCaffrey operate in similar parts of the field. Kittle has also had consistent durability problems throughout his career, missing 16 games in six seasons in the league and being limited in several others, which not only means he could miss more time with injury this season, but it could also contribute to him declining quicker than expected as he goes into his 30s.

All of this considered, I would expect Kittle to be a smaller part of this passing game this season than he has been in the past. Fortunately, Kittle is also an above average run blocker, which, combined with his career 2.34 yards per route run average, has led to him finishing above 80 overall on PFF in five straight seasons, so even if he declines, it will be from a pretty high level and he should remain above average as both a blocker and a pass catcher, one of the few tight ends in the league who can say so.

The 49ers also added Alabama tight end Cameron Latu in the 3rd round of the draft to give them a younger development option at the position and he will compete with 2020 6th round pick Charlie Woerner to be the #2 tight end, a battle he could win even as a rookie, with Woerner having played just 567 snaps with a 0.72 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Both could play small roles in a receiving corps that has among the most talent of any in the league, especially when you consider the dual threat Christian McCaffrey.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The 49ers’ offensive line has been a strength for them for years, but they have lost significant players in each of the last two off-seasons. Last off-season, they lost starting center Alex Mack and starting left guard Laken Tomlinson and, while their replacements, 2021 2nd round pick Aaron Banks and career backup Jake Brendel respectively, both had decent seasons in 2022, with PFF grades of 62.7 in 16 starts and 64.9 in 17 starts respectively, this off-season they lost starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who had a 71.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, and their top option at right guard, Daniel Brunskill, who had a 69.0 PFF grade on 518 snaps, without really replacing either of them.

Swing tackle Colton McKivitz, a 2020 5th round pick, is likely the favorite to replace McGlinchey at right tackle, but he has played just 439 snaps in three seasons in the league and, while he hasn’t been horrible in that limited action, he will almost definitely be a significant downgrade from McGlinchey. Other candidates for the right tackle job are 2021 5th round pick Jaylon Moore and veteran free agent addition Matt Pryor, but Moore hasn’t shown much on 329 career snaps, while Pryor is a career backup who has been middling at best in 24 starts in five seasons in the league, so they would both be big downgrades from McGlinchey as well.

With Brunskill gone at right guard, that job will fall to Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who actually was their primary starter at the position last season, with 744 snaps played, but who also struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade and who is no guarantee to be significantly better in his second season in the league. Burford is almost definitely locked into that job, but only by default, with their best alternative probably being 2022 6th round pick Nick Zakelj, who played just 12 snaps as a rookie.

Brendel and Banks remain at center and left guard for the second straight seasons, without a better option or a competent backup on the roster at either spot. Banks is a former high draft pick who is only going into his third season in the league, so he should continue being at least a competent starter, with the upside to be even more. Brendel, however, is already in his age 31 season, despite last year being his first year as a primary starter, as the 2016 undrafted free agent had made just 3 starts across his first 6 seasons in the league prior to last season. It’s possible Brendel could continue being a decent starter, but he doesn’t have much upside and, given his age and lack of experience, he could easily regress this season.

The saving grace of this offensive line is dominant left tackle Trent Williams, who is their only starting offensive lineman remaining from two years ago and a player who, if he plays at his best, elevates this whole offensive line by a significant amount, coming off three seasons where he has received PFF grades of 91.9, 97.8, and 93.0, while finishing above 80 on PFF in 8 of his last 10 seasons. However, Williams is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of aging yet, it’s very possible he regresses at least a little bit this season, which would weaken this offensive line even more. Williams’ presence still elevates this group by a significant amount, but the rest of this group is pretty inexperienced and Williams age is becoming a concern.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to all the talent the 49ers have around the quarterback on offense, the 49ers also have a lot of talented players on defense, retaining most of a defense that finished last season 1st in defensive DVOA. Probably the most talented of those players is edge defender Nick Bosa, who received the Defensive Player of the Year award for his performance in 2022, totaling 18.5 sacks (most in the NFL), 30 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate, while excelling against the run and finishing 3rd among edge defenders on PFF with a 90.9 overall grade on 745 snaps.

It was a career best year for Bosa, but it was nothing new for a player who has 43 sacks, 68 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate in 51 career games and who had previously received grades of 86.7, 84.9, and 88.3 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Bosa should continue playing at a very high level in 2023 and should be on the short list to defend his title and win Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight year.

The 49ers have a bit of a concern at the edge defender position behind Bosa though. Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam both played heavy rotational roles last season and fared pretty well, with Omenihu receiving a 67.5 PFF grade on 572 snaps and Ebukam receiving a 69.1 PFF grade on 559 snaps, but are no longer on the team. The 49ers have 2022 2nd round pick Drake Jackson set to play a bigger role in year two, after showing potential with a 64.1 grade on 315 snaps as a rookie, but, aside from him, the 49ers other options at the position are a pair of low end veteran free agent acquisitions Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant, as well as 5th round rookie Robert Beal, who would likely struggle if he played a significant role in year one.

Ferrell seems like their best reserve option, signed to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency. Ferrell has been a bust as the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he hasn’t been a bad player either. He only has 10 sacks, 23 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate in 58 career games, but that’s in part because he’s lined up on the interior in some pass rush situations, where it’s harder to pressure the passer, and he’s been a solid run stuffer, leading to him finishing above 60 overall on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, with an average of 466 snaps played per season.

Still only in his age 26 season, Ferrell may still have untapped upside and, at the very least, should be a solid rotational player. Bryant, on the other hand, was a 4th round pick in 2019 and has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of 247 snaps per season. He figures to continue struggling, even in what is likely to be a deep reserve role. Nick Bosa’s presence elevates this position group significantly and Drake Jackson has upside, but the 49ers are kind of top heavy at this position, after losing a pair of useful contributors from a year ago.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a relative weakness for the 49ers last season, with seven players playing at least 147, but no more than 357 snaps, with no one finishing above 63.3 on PFF. They should be significantly better in this group next season though. For one, they added Javon Hargrave on a big 4-year, 84 million dollar deal in free agency. That makes him the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, but it could easily be worth it, if he continues to play like he has in recent years.

His run defense has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he’s always been an effective pass rusher, with a 11.2% pressure rate in his career, and he’s been especially effective over the past seven seasons, finishing above 80 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 23 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 48 games. The one concern with Hargrave is he is going into his age 30 season and could begin declining soon, perhaps as soon as this season, but, even at less than his best, he should be a welcome addition for this position group.

Hargrave figures to start next to Arik Armstead, who could bounce back from a disappointing and injury plagued 2022 campaign to give them another above average every down player. From 2017-2021, Armstead finished above 70 on PFF in all five seasons, totaling 24 sacks, 29 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate over that stretch and also playing pretty well against the run, showing himself to be a well-rounded every down player by finishing above 60 in both pass rush and run defense grade in all five seasons and playing 45.9 snaps per game in 71 games.

In 2022, however, Armstead played just 349 snaps in 9 games due to injury and finished with a 63.3 PFF grade in his limited action. Armstead now heads into his age 30 season and his best days could be behind him as a result. However, he’s also not totally over the hill and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, even if he’s not at his peak form, and he should be healthier and play a bigger role than a year ago. He and Hargrave could easily both be above average starters, which would make this group significantly better than a year ago.

The 49ers were originally counting on 2020 1st round pick Javon Kinlaw to be the long-term starter next to Armstead, but he has proven to be a bust thus far in his career, finishing with a 54.1 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, before missing 24 games and being limited to 311 snaps total over the next two seasons due to injury, while again failing to top a 60 grade on PFF in both seasons. Kinlaw still has untapped potential if he can stay healthy and the 49ers probably won’t need him to be anything more than a reserve, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s already in his age 26 season and there’s a good chance he doesn’t develop much beyond this.

The 49ers also have veterans Kerry Hyder (357 snaps) and Kevin Givens (354 snaps) returning to compete for reserve roles, although both are pretty underwhelming options. Hyder has had some solid years in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 67.7, 68.0, and 68.6 respectively on snap counts of 659, 439, and 722 respectively in 2016, 2019, and 2020 respectively, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in each of his other five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons.

Hyder now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him as a result, and he figures to remain an underwhelming option even as a reserve. Givens, meanwhile, has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career, while maxing out at 387 snaps in a season. Neither he nor Hyder should be guaranteed a roster spot, but one of them will probably have to serve in at least a deep reserve role. Fortunately, the 49ers have a great every down starting duo and could get more out of former first round pick Javon Kinlaw, now in a reserve role and hopefully healthy, so this is an above average group overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The 49ers also had a pair of high level players at the off ball linebacker position, with Fred Warner (1,026 snaps) and Dre Greenlaw (850 snaps) finishing 4th and 7th respectively at the position with PFF grades of 83.7 and 81.2 respectively. For Warner, last year’s high level performance was nothing new, as the 2018 3rd round pick has been an every down starter since entering the league, playing at least 973 snaps every season and missing just 1 game ever, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three straight seasons over 75, with his career best year coming in 2020 when he had a 88.6 grade. Still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best every down linebackers in the league.

For Greenlaw, however, 2022 was a career best year, as he had shown flashes of high level play in his first three seasons in the league, but he had never exceeded a 69.5 grade on PFF, while missing 16 games due to injury in three seasons. It’s possible the 2019 5th round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down linebacker for years to come, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did last season and he could easily regress or suffer another injury in 2023. I would still expect him to be at least a solid every down linebacker, but it might be hard for him to repeat the best season of his career for the second year in a row.

The 49ers lost Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency and he was one of the best 3rd linebackers in the league, a player with every down skills who was overqualified for his limited role, but he only played 313 snaps for them last season (67.8 PFF grade), so he won’t be missed too much, unless the 49ers have an injury at the position. The 49ers used a 6th round pick on TCU’s Dee Winters as a potential long-term replacement, but, most likely, the 3rd linebacker job will go to one of their top reserves from last year, either Oren Burks (156 snaps) or Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (81 snaps).

Burks flashed potential in his limited role and was a 3rd round pick back in 2018, but he’s also only played 641 defensive snaps total in five seasons in the league and last season was the first of his career in which he didn’t finish below 60 on PFF. Flannigan-Fowles, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2019 and has played just 306 nondescript snaps on defense in his career. Neither will have to play a big role, but the 49ers do use a 3rd linebacker in base packages and, if either of their top-2 linebackers got hurt, the 49ers would be forced to rely on one or both of Burks and Flannigan-Fowles in a significant role, which would be a problem. Warner and Greenlaw are a high level every down duo, even if Greenlaw isn’t a guarantee to be as good again as he was a year ago, but depth is a bit of a concern.

Grade: A

Secondary

One position that could be a weakness on this defense this season is the cornerback position. Top cornerback Charvarius Ward remains, coming off of a season in which he ranked 4th among cornerbacks with a 83.2 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he had never previously exceeded 69.5 in a season in four prior years in the league, so there’s a good chance he is unable to be quite as good again in 2023 and, even if he can repeat the best year of his career, the 49ers have a lot of concerns behind him at the position. Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both left in free agency and, while the former was a slot specialist who missed 5 games and played just 509 snaps total, and the latter was limited to 312 snaps in 5 games by injury, they still had impressive grades of 76.1 and 70.9 respectively on PFF and the 49ers don’t have any other cornerbacks who are likely to play at that level, even in a limited role.

The 49ers will almost definitely continue using 2021 5th pick Deommodore Lenior as one of their top-3 cornerbacks, after he played 887 snaps and made 13 starts a year ago, with Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both missing significant time with injury, and they added veteran Isaiah Oliver in free agency on a 2-year, 6.75 million dollar deal, which should lock him in as the other top-3 cornerback, with Oliver and Lenoir competing to be the nominal #2 cornerback.

Lenoir struggled in that extended role last season though, posting a 55.9 grade on PFF, and there’s no guarantee he’s any better in 2023, as he wasn’t a high draft pick and also struggled on 238 snaps as a rookie. Oliver, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2018 and has shown flashes of impressive play, surpassing 70 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons, but he’s also missed a total of 20 games over those three seasons combined and, in his only two full seasons as a starter in his career (2019 and 2020), he finished below 60 on PFF, so he’s never played at a high level for an extended period of time. He still has potential if he can stay healthy, but he’s not really a reliable option.

With Lenoir likely to struggle and Oliver unreliable, the 49ers could need significant playing time out of their reserve cornerbacks. Samuel Womack, a 2022 5th round pick who flashed potential on 146 rookie year snaps, seems like the best of the bunch, but he’s still an unproven player who wasn’t drafted highly. Ambry Thomas was a higher pick, going in the 3rd round in 2021, but he struggled mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and wasn’t much better while only playing 41 snaps in his second season in the league last year. The 49ers also added South Alabama’s Darrell Luter in the 5th round of the draft and signed veteran Myles Hartsfield, though the former would likely struggle in a significant rookie year role, while the latter has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, playing 475 snaps per snaps as a mostly a slot specialist with the Panthers.

At safety, the 49ers return Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson, who were solid with PFF grades of 68.8 and 67.2 respectively last season, while starting all 17 games. Hufanaga should have a similar season in 2023. He was only a 6th round pick in 2021, but flashed potential on 395 snaps as a rookie, before being a solid starter a year ago. He might not have much more untapped upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued being a solid starter for years to come.

Gipson, on the other hand, is now going into his age 33 season and is much less safe of a bet to continue being a solid starter. Gipson has been a starter for most of his 11-year NFL career (149 starts), but he hasn’t always been the most consistent player, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seasons and, now well into his 30s, there’s a good chance he ends up struggling this season. Perhaps with that in mind, the 49ers used a 3rd round pick on Penn State’s Ja’Ayir Brown as a potential long-term replacement, but it’s unclear how much of a positive impact he’ll be able to make in year one. With Gipson potentially being a liability and questions at cornerback, this secondary is the relative weakness of this defense, but this isn’t a bad unit either.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The 49ers still have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but there are questions at the quarterback position, with Brock Purdy being inexperienced and coming off of a major injury and Sam Darnold and Trey Lance both having upside, but also considerable downside. They also aren’t quite as talented overall as they have been in recent years, especially on the offensive line, which has lost four of five starters just since a couple years ago, which could easily end up being a concern, especially when you pair it with their questions at the quarterback position.

The 49ers are still a high level team in by far the least talented of the two conferences, so they should have a pretty clear path to winning a bunch of regular season games and making a run into the post-season, but I wouldn’t put them in the top tier contender category, as most of the top teams in the AFC are still better than the 49ers and I wouldn’t say they are the top team in the NFC either. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC West

Washington Commanders 2023 NFL Season Preview

July 7, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Quarterback

Over the past five seasons, Washington has started twelve different quarterbacks, most in the league over that span. Prior to the past five seasons, Washington had Kirk Cousins, who made all 48 starts from 2015-2017 and was solid with a 97.5 QB rating, but Washington opted not to pay him the big contract long-term he wanted and let him walk in free agency. Cousins hasn’t exactly been worth his big contract over the past five seasons in Minnesota, posting a 100.9 QB rating, but winning just one playoff game and costing the Vikings 155 million over five seasons, with another 30 million due in 2023, but Washington has had such a hard time replacing him that they might have been better off biting the bullet and bringing Cousins back, instead of going on the quarterback carousel they’ve been on the past five seasons.

Washington’s quarterback issues in recent years haven’t been for lack of trying to find a solution either. They originally traded a third round pick and a starting cornerback Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs for veteran starter Alex Smith, who they gave a 4-year, 94 million dollar deal with 71 million guaranteed to be Cousins’ replacement, but he suffered a major injury midway through his first season in Washington and wound up making just 16 total starts for Washington in three seasons, while taking home all of his guaranteed money.

Washington then turned to the draft the following off-season, taking Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019, but he lasted just two seasons in Washington, with a 74.4 QB rating in 13 starts. Another veteran, Ryan Fitzpatrick, got a 1-year deal worth 10 million for the 2021 season, but lasted just 6 pass attempts before suffering a season ending and ultimately career ending injury. The Commanders then traded away a pair of third round picks last off-season to acquire Carson Wentz and his 28.3 million dollar salary from the Colts, but Wentz struggled and wound up with a 80.2 QB rating in just 7 total starts before being released this off-season.

Despite all the assets Washington has committed to the quarterback position in recent years, the quarterback who has made the most starts for them recently is Taylor Heinicke, a former undrafted free agent who was supposed to be a backup. Heinicke hasn’t been bad in his 22 starts over the past two seasons, but he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 87.5, while receiving grades of 59.4 and 49.8 from PFF in the past two seasons, suggesting he should stay a backup long-term.

Washington had opportunities to be aggressive and commit more significant resources to the quarterback position this off-season, whether in a trade for Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers, or by moving up into the top-4 of the draft to select a high level young quarterback prospect, but the Commanders took a more conservative approach, opting to see what 2022 5th round pick Sam Howell has, while adding Jacoby Brissett on an incentivized 1-year, 8 million dollar deal to replace Heinicke as a veteran backup and insurance option in case Howell struggles.

Howell wasn’t a high draft pick, even in a bad quarterback draft, and he was pretty nondescript in just one start (19 pass attempts) as a rookie, so the odds would seem to be against him developing into the solution at quarterback for the Commanders, but Howell was considered a higher draft pick before a disappointing final collegiate season and the Commanders have been happy with his performance behind the scenes, enough so that they didn’t seem to interested in making a splash addition at the quarterback position. He will likely struggle in his first season as a full-time starter, but there is at least some upside there.

Brissett doesn’t come with much upside, as he’s going into his age 31 season and basically is who he is at this point in his career, making 48 starts in 7 seasons in the league and totaling a 84.4 QB rating. However, he’s coming off a career best year in Cleveland, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.07 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 11 starts, good for a career high 88.9 QB rating and a career high 75.2 grade from PFF as a passer, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brissett ended up as the starter at some point this season if Howell struggles to show consistency, in which case Brissett could prove to be an upgrade, even if he’s also an underwhelming starter in his own right. Without any significant additions this off-season, this is an underwhelming quarterback room, with Washington giving the starting job to an inexperienced second year player who was just a 5th round pick a year ago. There is some upside here, but most teams have a better quarterback situation than this.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

With questions at the quarterback position again and Howell unlikely to be a significant upgrade under center in his first season as a starter, the Commanders will need more from the rest of this supporting cast if they are going to improve from last season, when they went 8-8-1 with a -22 point differential against an easy schedule and finished 22nd overall in DVOA, with their offense finishing 28th. On offense, the Commanders’ offensive line had more changes than any other position group on this team from last year to this year, which makes sense because they were an underwhelming unit a year ago, ranking 26th on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 23rd in team run blocking grade, but all of the changes don’t seem to have made this a better offensive line and, in fact, it’s possible they could be even worse than a year ago.

A lot of the changes the Commanders made on this offensive line this off-season involved moving on from struggling veterans. Center Chase Roullier could have had some bounce back potential if he was healthy, but the Commanders didn’t want to pay his 8.37 million dollar non-guaranteed salary after he had played in just 10 games over the previous two seasons, so he was let go. The Commanders also released Andrew Norwell to save 4.38 million and allowed free agent Trai Turner to walk, after they started 16 games and 12 games respectively last season at guard and received below average grades of 59.8 and 53.0 respectively from PFF. On top of that, Wes Schweitzer and Nick Martin, two of the three centers who made starts at center last season in Roullier’s absence, were not brought back this off-season.

Added to the mix are veterans Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie, both of whom the Commanders gave 3-year deals, worth 16.5 million and 24 million respectively, and a pair of rookies, third round pick Ricky Stromberg and fourth round pick Braeden Daniels. All four additions have one thing in common, the ability to play multiple positions, as Gates has started at tackle, guard, and center at the professional level, Wylie has started at tackle and guard at the professional level, Stromberg played center and guard at the collegiate level, and Daniels played tackle and guard at the collegiate level. It’s very likely none of those additions wind up being above average starters, but their versatility does at least give the Commanders more options upfront.

Gates will most likely be Washington’s starting center, with Washington’s other options being the rookie Stromberg, who could easily struggle in year one, and career backup Tyler Larsen, who started 8 games last season in Roullier’s absence, but finished with just a 58.2 PFF grade. Larsen has been better in the past, but he’s never been more than a middling starter, he’s made just 29 starts in eight seasons in the league, with a career high of 10 starts in a season, and he now heads into his age 31 season, so he’s not a realistic starting option and ultimately might not even make this team as a reserve, even though he also provides the Commanders with versatility, having made starts at guard in the past.

Gates went undrafted in 2018, but flashed potential on 291 snaps in his second season in the league in 2019 with the Giants, while playing both tackle and guard, which led to him being given a chance to start at center in 2020. Gates made all 16 starts at center and wasn’t horrible with a 59.7 PFF grade, but he suffered a brutal leg injury early in the 2021 season, which has limited him to just 10 starts total over the past two seasons. Gates is only in his age 28 season and seems to have finally made a full recovery, starting the Giants’ final 7 games (5 at guard, 2 at center) and receiving a 64.8 PFF over that stretch. He doesn’t come with a lot of upside, but as long as he can avoid further injury, he should at least be a capable starter wherever that ends up being, most likely center, given the Commanders’ other options.

The strength of this offensive line is probably the tackle position. Holdovers Charles Leno, Cornelius Lucas, and Samuel Cosmi all played above average as starters last season, making 17 starts, 12 starts, and 5 starts respectively last season and receiving grades of 71.6, 67.7, and 71.6 from PFF. With Andrew Wylie being added to the mix in free agency, at least one of those players will have to play guard, likely Wylie, who has the most extensive experience of the bunch at that position.

Wylie has spent the past two seasons as a tackle (24 starts), but he was primarily a guard prior to that, making 34 starts at guard from 2018-2020, as opposed to just one start at tackle over that stretch. Wylie has never been more than a middling starter, but he’s been decent regardless of where he’s played, receiving 66.0, 67.4, and 54.9 grades from PFF during his three seasons as primarily a guard and 67.2 and 63.1 grades from PFF during his two seasons as primarily a tackle. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season regardless of where he plays, most likely guard, given Washington’s other options.

Leno was the best of Washington’s tackles last season with a 71.6 PFF grade, which is in line with how he’s played for most of his career as a starter, finishing above 70 on PFF in six of the past seven seasons, while making 114 starts, with a career best 81.2 just a couple years ago in 2021. Leno now heads into his age 32 season and could easily decline this season, but, barring a massive dropoff, he should remain at least a solid starter with the upside for more if he continues not showing his age. He figures to be locked in as the starter at left tackle again.

Cosmi also had a good year last season, receiving a 71.6 PFF grade, but he also missed three games and was limited in others due to injury, which is a concern because the 2021 3rd round pick also missed eight games as a rookie. Cosmi flashed a lot of potential as a rookie too, with a 74.9 PFF grade, so, if he can stay healthy, he could easily be an above average starter for the Commanders in 2023, now in his third season in the league, but he does come with some downside, having not made it through a full season as a starter yet in his career. He’ll likely start at right tackle, but theoretically could also move inside to guard, though he has made just one start there at the professional level.

Lucas entered last season as a reserve and he has never made more than 12 starts in a season in nine seasons in the league, but he’s been one of the best swing tackles in the league in recent years, making 35 starts over the past four seasons and receiving grades of 72.2, 78.2, 75.2, and 67.7 from PFF respectively. Lucas is going into his age 32 season now and is still a projection to a season-long starting role, so he is likely to remain as the swing tackle, but he would likely still be one of the top swing tackles in the league and it’s possible he could see some starts at right tackle, with both Cosmi and Wylie playing guard in that scenario.

Guard is probably the weakest position of this offensive line, but the Commanders do at least have options. One of Cosmi or Wylie will likely start at one guard spot and it’s possible both could play guard if they wanted to give Lucas a shot at right tackle. Other guard options include the rookies Stromberg and Daniels, 2020 4th round pick Saahdiq Charles, who has mostly struggled in 545 snaps (8 starts) in three seasons in the league, and 2022 7th round pick Chris Paul, who was mediocre in 66 rookie year snaps.

The Commanders have options on this offensive line, but they are likely to have at least one weak spot in the starting lineup and, outside of Leno and Cosmi, they don’t have any starters who are likely to be above average and even that’s not a guarantee, given Leno’s age and that Cosmi has a significant injury history and might be playing out of position at guard. This is likely to remain a below average group, despite all the changes made this off-season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

To compensate for their underwhelming passing game, the Commanders were a run-heavy team last season, ranking 20th in the NFL with 554 pass attempts and 4th with 538 run attempts. With Howell being a first-time starter, the Commanders figure to remain run-heavy in 2023. They ranked just 28th in the NFL last season with 3.98 YPC, but they were better than that suggests, as their top-two running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson had carry success rates of 53% and 50% respectively, on carry totals of 205 and 149 respectively, meaning both backs kept this offense on schedule at an at least average rate, which is impressive considering the Commanders’ offensive line issues.

Their low averages were mostly the result of their lack of big plays in the running game, with Robinson managing just six carries of 15+ yards, which he took for 111 yards total, and Gibson managing just three carries of 15+ yards, which he took for 56 yards total. As a percentage of their overall rushing total, Robinson and Gibson had just 13.9% and 10.3% of their yardage on carries of 15+ yards, 10th lowest and 6th lowest respectively out of 60 eligible running backs. Fortunately for them, long carries tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, so both running backs could easily end up with more long carries this season, which would improve their overall averages significantly.

Robinson has the most upside of the two as a runner, as a 2022 3rd round pick going into his second season in the league, after not being at 100% for most of his rookie season due to injuries suffered when he was the victim of an shooting in the off-season, which also cost him the first five games of his rookie season. Robinson averaged 17.1 carries per game as the lead back upon his return and figures to remain in that role this season, a role in which he will have some breakout potential.

Gibson is also a former 3rd round pick, being selected there in 2020, and he had more long carries in his first two seasons prior to last season, with 22.8% of his yardage in those two seasons coming on carries of 15+ yards, but that only led to a 4.28 YPC in those two seasons, so Robinson seems like the better option as a runner going forward. Gibson, meanwhile, will be their primary passing down back, after averaging 1.34 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, a steep increase on the 0.72 yards per route run average that Robinson had as a rookie.

The Commanders don’t really need much depth behind their top-two running backs because both have the ability to take on a larger load if needed in the absence of the other, but depth is at least a little bit of a concern, with 6th round rookie Chris Rodriguez likely to be their #3 back and their other options being Jonathan Williams, a special teamer with just 134 carries in seven seasons in the league, and Jaret Patterson, a 2021 undrafted free agent with just a 4.05 YPC average on 85 career carries.

The Commanders also have Curtis Samuel, a wide receiver, who totaled 187 yards on 38 carries, of which came out of the backfield. He might not get that many carries in a new offensive scheme this season, but he does have 114 carries for 676 yards and 6 touchdowns in six seasons in the league. Even not including the hybrid Curtis Samuel, this is a solid backfield, with a pair of solid backs who will work in tandem and complement each other well and who are capable of being the featured back for a stretch if needed.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In addition to getting more long runs out of their backfield, another way this offense could improve somewhat in 2023 is by getting more out of 2022 first round pick Jahan Dotson, which would give them a much needed second reliable target in this receiving corps other than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin averaged 2.04 yards per route run with a 77/1191/5 slash line last season, in line with his 1.94 yards per route run average and 75/1070/5 slash line average in four seasons in the league, and he is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but the only other wide receiver on this team to even surpass 1.40 yards per route run last season was Dyami Brown, who played just 169 snaps and had 52.4% of his receiving yardage on one 75-yard play.

Dotson wasn’t bad as a rookie, but he had just a 35/523/7 slash line and 1.39 yards per route run average, two things he has the potential to improve on in his second season in the league, even if his upside is likely going to be capped as the #2 receiver in an underwhelming passing game. He’s not a guarantee to take a step forward, but he at least gives the Commanders some room for optimism. Curtis Samuel was the nominal #2 receiver last season, with 92 targets to Dotson’s 61, but he took them for just a 64/656/4 slash line, a 7.13 yards per target average, as opposed to 8.57 for Dotson, and Samuel averaged just 1.28 yards per route run, even though he was targeted more frequently than Dotson

Samuel is a former second round pick by the Panthers in 2017 and he has shown flashes of why he was a high draft pick through his 6-year career, but has just a 1.34 yards per route run average for his career, with 23 total games missed due to injury, and, now in his age 27 season, he probably is who he is at this stage of his career, so he should be the third option in this passing game, with Dotson giving them more upside in a bigger role in his second season in the league.

Samuel still will have somewhat of a role in this offense though, as they don’t have much depth behind him, with their likely #4 receiver being Dyami Brown, who was a third round pick in 2021, but who has played just 504 snaps in two seasons in the league and who has just a 16/233/1 slash line in his career outside of that one aforementioned 75-yard play. He has a little upside, but he’s underwhelming as a #4 receiver and would likely not contribute much if forced into a larger role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Commanders also don’t have much at the tight end position. Logan Thomas was their primary receiving tight end, but he took 61 targets in 14 games for a 39/323/1 slash line, while averaging 0.88 yards per route run. Thomas has averaged just 1.01 yards per route run for his career and now heads into his age 32 season, so he’s a very underwhelming starting option who could struggle even more than he did last season, but the Commanders don’t have another great option. John Bates played 510 snaps last season and 519 snaps in 2021, but he was primarily a blocker, running a route on just 35.4% of those snaps. Bates has been one of the better run blocking tight ends in the league over the past two seasons, since being selected in the 4th round in 2021, but his career 1.06 yards per route run average doesn’t suggest that he deserves more playing time in passing situations.

The Commanders also used a 5th round pick in last year’s draft on Cole Turner and he could play a bigger role in his second season at Thomas’ expense, after playing 245 snaps as a rookie, but he didn’t show much as a receiver either, with a 0.32 yards per route run average with his very limited action. The possible emergence of Jahan Dotson as an above average starting wide receiver in his second season in the league gives this group the upside to be better than a year ago, when they lacked a reliable target aside from Terry McLaurin, but this group still lacks depth at the wide receiver position and doesn’t have a reliable pass catching tight end.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Even if their offense ends up being slightly better this year than a year ago, they still figure to be a below average unit, so they will need their defense to continue playing well, after finishing last season 9th in defensive DVOA. Defensive performance tends to be much less predictive and predictable year-to-year than offensive performance and, as a result, it tends to be much tougher for a good defense to repeat that performance the following season than a good offense, but the Commanders didn’t have any significant losses on defense this off-season and actually have a couple key players who could be healthier than a year ago, so they have a better chance than most teams of continuing to play at a high level or possibly even a higher level on that side of the ball.

The most notable of those key players who should be healthier is Chase Young, who missed all but three games (114 snaps) as he struggled to recover from a torn ACL suffered during the 2021 season. Young was the #2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, won Defensive Rookie of the Year with a season in which he received a 87.2 grade from PFF on 770 snaps, and was on his way to another good season in 2021, with a 75.1 PFF grade on 477 snaps, before suffering that torn ACL in week 10. Young still had a 78.4 PFF grade in his limited action last season and, only in his age 24 season in 2023, another year removed from his injury, Young has obvious bounce back potential. The Commanders aren’t completely sold on his durability long-term, declining his 5th year option for 2024, which would have guaranteed him 17.452 million, but he could still be a big asset for them, now in the final year of his rookie deal in 2023.

In Young’s absence, the Commanders got a good year from fellow edge defender Montez Sweat, as he received a 86.4 PFF grade on 731 snaps, a big part of the reason why this defense was above average a year ago. That was a career best grade for Sweat and he might not be as good again in 2023, but him playing at a high level isn’t really new, as the 2019 1st round pick has finished above 75 overall on PFF in three straight seasons and, still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023 at the very least. Sweat is at his best as a run defender, with grades of 86.0, 82.4, and 79.8 in run defense over the past three seasons, but he also has 22 sacks, 39 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate over those three seasons, including 8 sacks, 19 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate a year ago.

James Smith-Williams (506 snaps), Casey Toohill (347 snaps), and Efe Obada (391 snaps) saw significant action in Young’s absence last season and, with all three returning to this team for 2023, I would expect them to be their top reserves again, with 5th and 7th round rookies KJ Henry and Andre Jones added as competition. The rookies are unlikely to contribute much though and all three of those aforementioned veterans were mediocre in their limited action though, which is not surprising, given their history.

Smith-Williams was just a 7th round pick in 2020 and has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, with snap counts of 100 and 388 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. Toohill was also a 7th round pick in 2020 and has been middling at best on an average of 253 snaps per season in three seasons in the league. Obada, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2015, has averaged just 308 snaps per season over the past five seasons, while finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, and now heads into his age 31 season. Fortunately, depth won’t be needed as much at this position with Chase Young likely to be healthier than a year ago and, even with suspect depth, this is still an impressive position group because of their dominant starting duo.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Another big part of the reason why this defense was above average a year ago was the play of interior defender Jonathan Allen, who was PFF’s 11th ranked interior defender with a 80.1 PFF grade on 802 snaps. Like Montez Sweat, Allen’s high level of play in 2022 was not out of the ordinary for him, as he’s now finished above 80 on PFF in three straight seasons, while surpassing 750 snaps played in all three seasons as well. Allen is only decent as a run defender, but he more than makes up for it by being one of the best interior pass rushers in the league, totaling 18.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate over the past three seasons combined. Like Sweat and Young, Allen is also a former first round pick, selected 17th overall in 2017, and still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect another strong season from him in 2023.

Fellow starting interior defender Da’Ron Payne is also a former first round pick (13th in 2018) and also had a strong season, particularly as a pass rusher, as he had a 72.0 pass rush grade on PFF and totaled 11.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate. Payne’s run defense was a liability and he missed a position leading 12 tackles, so he didn’t have quite as good of a season as Allen, but he was still an asset for this defensive line and the Commanders obviously value him highly, keeping him as a free agent on a 4-year, 90 million dollar deal, making him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league in average annual salary. Payne might not be quite worth that salary if his run defense doesn’t improve, but he did post above average run defense grades on PFF in his first three seasons in the league, prior to struggling the past two seasons, and, only going into his age 26 season, he has bounce back potential as a run defender.

Payne wasn’t as good as a pass rusher earlier in his career, totaling a 5.8% pressure rate across those first three seasons in the league, but he’s not a one-year wonder in that aspect either, finishing with a 74.1 pass rush grade on PFF in 2021, with 4.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate, giving him back-to-back seasons where he’s been well above average as an interior pass rusher. He should remain an asset for this team even if his run defense doesn’t bounce back and it wouldn’t be a shock if this ended up being his best all-around season, if he can return to form as a run defender and continue rushing the passer at a high level.

Depth was a problem at the interior defender position a year ago, but with Payne and Allen playing 907 snaps and 802 snaps respectively (3rd and 13th among interior defenders in snap count) depth wasn’t really needed that much and their depth should be better this season, with 2022 2nd round pick Phidarian Mathis set to return after missing all but 3 snaps in his rookie season due to injury. Payne and Allen still figure to play significant every down snap counts even with Mathis returning, but Mathis should still have a role as a rotational reserve and he has the potential to fare well in that role, while giving them a decent insurance option in case Payne or Allen get hurt.

The Commanders also still have John Ridgeway, their top reserve from a year ago with 279 snaps played, but the 2022 5th round pick struggled mightily as a rookie with a 48.9 PFF grade and, while he could be better in year two, he’s no guarantee to ever develop into even a useful rotational player and he probably would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see more than a deep reserve role. With Allen and Payne being one of the better interior defender duos in the league and Mathis returning from injury to presumably provide better depth than the Commanders had a year ago, this is a strong position group overall.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Commanders aren’t nearly as good in the linebacking corps as they are on the defensive line, but they do have a former first round pick in their linebacking corps as well, Jamin Davis, and he has the upside to have a breakout third season in the league. The 19th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Davis struggled in a part-time role as a rookie, finishing with a 46.8 PFF grade on 581 snaps, but took a step forward in an every down role in his second season in the league in 2022, playing 833 snaps and receiving a 62.9 PFF grade. Davis could regress a little in his third season in the league, but he also still has the upside to be an above average every down linebacker long-term and he could easily take another step forward in year three.

Cole Holcomb had a 66.6 PFF grade last season as the other starter opposite Davis, but he lasted just seven games (446 snaps) due to injury and none of the Commanders’ replacement options fared well, with the rest of this group all finishing below average on PFF. Holcomb wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Commanders did a decent job replacing him with former Seahawk Cody Barton, who they signed to a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal.

Barton, a 3rd round pick in 2019, was mostly a special teamer in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, maxing out at 190 snaps in a season, and he never fared well even in that limited action, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons, but he took a step forward in close to an every down role in 2022, receiving a 63.7 PFF grade on 894 snaps. Barton is a one-year wonder in terms of being even a decent every down player and, as a result, could regress a little bit this season, but that’s definitely not a guarantee and he’s not a bad option on a cheap one-year deal.

The Commanders will need Davis and Barton to stay healthy and hold up in every down roles, as their lack of depth behind them is still a concern, with their top reserve options being David Mayo, primarily a special teamer in his age 30 season who has only exceeded the 202 defensive snaps he played last season one other time in eight seasons in the league, and Khaleke Hudson, a 2020 5th round pick who has seen just 148 defensive snaps in his career. This isn’t a bad position group, but it’s not a good one and their lack of depth would be exposed in the event of an injury.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Chase Young, the other key player on this defense who has a good chance to be healthier than a year ago is safety Kamren Curl, who was limited to 727 snaps in 12 games by injury last season, but excelled when on the field, with a 82.9 PFF grade. A 7th round pick in 2020, Curl is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but, despite where he was drafted, Curl started 25 games across his first two seasons in the league and received grades of 68.1 and 69.4 from PFF on snap counts of 763 and 878 respectively, so his breakout third season in the league didn’t come out of nowhere. Curl might not be quite as good again in 2023, but he’s also only in his age 24 season and could continue being one of the better safeties in the league for years to come and, even if he’s not, he could easily compensate for that by being healthier than a year ago.

Darrick Forrest will remain the other starting safety, after playing 849 snaps in 17 games last season, in the first year as a starter for the 2021 5th round pick. Forrest only played 26 snaps as a rookie, but he showed some potential and wasn’t bad in his first season of significant action in 2022, with a 67.0 PFF grade. He wasn’t highly drafted and, as a result, might not have a huge upside, but he could remain at least a decent starter in 2023 and beyond, even if that ends up being his ceiling, and it’s possible he could have a little untapped potential.

Jeremy Reaves (149 snaps) and Percy Butler (134 snaps) were their top reserve safeties last season, along with hybrid slot cornerback/safety Bobby McCain, and all saw increased action in Curl’s absence. McCain is no longer with the team, but he’s been replaced by another hybrid player, second round rookie Jartavius Martin, and Reaves and Butler both remain. Reaves is probably the better of the two pure safeties, flashing potential in limited action in his career, but he’s also a special teamer who hasn’t exceeded 263 defensive snaps in a season in his career, while Butler is a 2022 4th round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie and Martin is likely to primarily be a cornerback.

Cornerback was arguably the Commanders’ biggest weakness on defense last season, so it’s not surprising they addressed it early in the draft, actually using their first round pick on a cornerback option as well, taking Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes with the 16th overall pick. Forbes and Taylor will compete for roles behind #1 cornerback Kendall Fuller, who was by far their best cornerback a year ago, with a 76.6 PFF grade on 1,030 snaps (17 starts). Fuller has been a bit inconsistent in his career, but he’s surpassed a 60 grade on PFF in six straight seasons, with four seasons over 70, including back-to-back years over 75, and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to drop off significantly this season and he should remain an above average starter.

Benjamin St. Juste (655 snaps) is their top returning cornerback other than Fuller and the 2021 3rd round pick will still be in the mix for a role this season, even with Forbes and Taylor being added, but he’s not a guarantee to win that role and could easily open the season as the 4th cornerback, after mediocre grades of 53.6 and 58.3 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league, while starting 15 of 21 games played. St. Juste could have some untapped potential, but he’s already going into his age 26 season and might never develop into even a decent starting option, which is why Forbes and Taylor were added.

The Commanders also have Danny Johnson, a 2018 undrafted free agent and career special teamer who has flashed potential on snap counts of 336 and 292 over the past two seasons, the two highest single-season totals of his career. He’s unlikely to see a significant role this season, but he should be a good depth option who can probably be relied on in a pinch. With Forbes and Taylor being added and Curl likely to play more games, this group could be better than a year ago, but they are relying heavily on inexperienced young players at the cornerback position, so there’s some downside here too if those young cornerbacks struggle through growing pains.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Commanders finished 8-8-1 in 2022, but their -22 point differential and 22nd ranked DVOA suggests that they were a little worse than their record and, as a result, they will likely have to be at least a little better in 2023 if they want to even match last season’s win total. The Commanders defense should remain one of the better units in the league, even though defensive performance is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, as the Commanders brought back all of their key defenders from a year ago and could have better injury luck this season. However, their offense still looks like one of the weakest in the league.

Their offensive skill position groups could be better this year with second year players Brian Robinson and Jahan Dotson having the potential to take a step forward in year two, but they still have one of the shakiest quarterback and one of the shakiest offensive line situations in the league and, overall, look like one of the weakest offenses in the league. Their defense will keep them competitive in most games, but, even in a weak NFC, there are better options to secure a wild card spot and make the post-season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC East

New York Giants 2023 NFL Season Preview

July 7, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Quarterback

The Giants were a surprise playoff qualifier a year ago, securing a wild card spot with a 9-7-1 record after most expected them to finish below .500 for the 6th straight season, but they benefited from an easy schedule, going just 2-6 in the regular season against playoff qualifiers and winning 8 of their 9 games by 8 points or fewer, giving them a -6 point differential and a DVOA that ranked 21st in the NFL. The Giants did win a playoff game, but they benefited from facing an even worse playoff qualifier in the Minnesota Vikings, who entered the post-season 21st in DVOA, and then the Giants were subsequently blown out in the second round against a tougher opponent in the Philadelphia Eagles, who won their playoff matchup by 31, after previously beating the Giants by 26 in the only meaningful regular season matchup between the two teams.

The Giants are unlikely to have as easy of a schedule or as good of a record in close games as they did a year ago, so if they want to make it back to the post-season, let alone go on a long post-season run, they had to get better this off-season. Fortunately, there was plenty of opportunity to do that, with the Giants entering the off-season with among the most cap space in the league and having a roster that largely overachieved its talent level last season, thanks to great coaching in Brian Daboll’s first year on the job, and that, as a result, had a lot of room for improvement this off-season.

Unfortunately, even with as much cap space as the Giants had this off-season, they weren’t able to make a ton of additions to this team because they committed a huge contract to keep quarterback Daniel Jones, guaranteeing him 82 million over the next two seasons and paying him up to 160 million over the next 4 seasons, making him the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Jones was the 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and has always had upside, but that is a steep increase for a player whose 5th year option, which would have paid him just 22.384 million in 2023, was declined before last season because the Giants felt he wasn’t worth it.

Jones wasn’t bad in his first three seasons in the league, earning grades of 65.5, 78.4, and 71.1 from PFF, but poor coaching and a lack of a supporting cast led to him completing just 62.8% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 45 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions in 37 starts, while rushing for 5.81 YPC and 5 touchdowns on 172 carries, and durability was always an issue for him, missing at least two starts in each of those three seasons. In 2022, Jones got better coaching, marginally better play from his supporting cast, and probably most importantly stayed healthy, starting all 16 of the Giants’ meaningful games last season, but he still only ranked 17th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 76.0 PFF grade, while completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.79 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, with 5.90 YPC and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries.

Jones may still have further untapped upside, only in his age 26 season, and his statistical production would almost definitely improve with more talent around him, but the history of paying non-elite quarterbacks top quarterback money is not promising. Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 29 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. It’s close to impossible to win it all with a highly paid starting quarterback unless he is an elite player under center, as it becomes very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win with if that quarterback is taking a significant percentage of the cap.

Jones’ durability issues also might not be totally behind him, given that he’s suffered a significant injury in three of four seasons in the league. Fortunately, the Giants do at least have a good backup in Tyrod Taylor, who has started 53 games in 12 seasons in the league, totaling a 88.2 QB rating, while adding 2,071 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on 366 carries (5.66 YPC). Taylor would still be a downgrade from Jones if he had to play an extended period of time, but you can do a lot worse at the backup quarterback spot. This is not a bad quarterback room, but Jones was likely overpaid this off-season and backup Tyrod Taylor has a better chance than most backup quarterbacks of having to see action, given Jones’ history of injuries.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest area the Giants needed to address on offense this off-season was their receiving corps. The Giants came into last season with a pair of highly paid veteran receivers Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard, who were on contracts worth up to 72 million over 4 years and up to 41 million over 4 years respectively, and they had another pair of recent high draft picks at the position, 2021 1st round pick Kadarius Toney and 2022 2nd round pick Wan’Dale Robinson.

However, Shepard and Robinson were limited to 165 snaps in 3 games and 229 snaps in 6 games respectively by torn ACLs that ended their seasons early, Toney was traded to the Chiefs mid-season for a third round pick after playing just 35 snaps in 2 games and falling out of favor with the coaching staff, while Golladay struggled so much in practice and fell out of favor so much with the coaching staff that he played just 261 snaps on the season, despite being highly paid and mostly healthy in a thin receiving corps that was devoid of real playmakers.

With those aforementioned four players contributing little, the Giants tried a variety of other receivers to see what would stick, with their top-5 in terms of snaps played being Darius Slayton (697 snaps), Richie James (524 snaps), Isaiah Hodgins (417 snaps), Marcus Johnson (312 snaps), and David Sills (269 snaps), a group of players that mostly was inexperienced and overlooked heading into last season. Slayton had the most experience of the bunch and, unsurprisingly, saw the most action and was the most productive of the bunch, leading the team in receiving, despite starting the season far down on the depth chart, playing just 18 snaps in the first three games of the season.

A 5th round pick in 2019, Slayton had averaged a decent 41/610/4 slash line per year with 1.33 yards per route run across his first three seasons in the league prior to last season and saw those numbers jump to 46/724/2 and 1.79 yards per route run last season. Set to be a free agent this off-season, the Giants opted to bring Slayton back on a reasonable 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, suggesting he will continue having a significant role even in what should be an overall improved receiving corps this year, even if only by default.

Along with re-signing Slayton, the Giants also signed ex-Colts wide receiver Parris Campbell to a 1-year, 4.7 million dollar deal, brought back Sterling Shepard on a reduced 1-year, 1.3175 million dollar deal, took a flier on veteran free agent Jamison Crowder (only 27.5K guaranteed), and used a 3rd round pick on Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, all of whom figure to compete for roles with Slayton and fellow holdovers Wan’Dale Robinson, Isaiah Hodgins, and David Sills, in a crowded group in which some of the aforementioned players will have to be left off the final roster.

Sills seems like a likely candidate to be left off this roster, averaging just 0.84 yards per route run last season and 0.72 yards per route run in his career since going undrafted in 2019, while Crowder would seem to have shaky hold on a roster spot as well, given how little guaranteed money he got this off-season and the fact that he is going into his age 30 season and coming off of an injury plagued season in which he played just 93 snaps in four games. Crowder averaged 1.59 yards per route run in his prime across his first six seasons in the league, but the 5-9 177 pounder was never more than a slot specialist and his yards per route run average fell to 1.15 in 2021 and 0.85 last season before the injury, so his best days seem to be behind him.

Shepard also probably has a shaky hold on a roster spot, after not being guaranteed anything on his new contract, but if he’s healthy he probably has a good chance to make this roster, as the 2016 2nd round pick has averaged 1.48 yards per route run in his career, including 1.56 last season. If he’s healthy is the tough part though, as he’s now missed 39 games in 7 seasons in the league, including 24 over just the past 2 seasons, and he’s now going into his age 30 season and coming off yet another significant injury. He may have a little bit left in the tank if he’s healthy, but he could just as easily not contribute to this team at all and/or be left off the final roster.

The rest of this group is likely locked into a roster spot. Robinson missed most of his rookie year with injury, but they used a second round pick on him, he flashed a lot of potential with 1.76 yards per route run average in his limited action and, while his injury recovery complicates his projection, if he’s healthy it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue playing at that level into a bigger role. Jalin Hyatt is raw and might not contribute much as a rookie, but he should be at least locked into a roster spot and has the talent to potentially make an impact in year one.

Parris Campbell’s contract suggests he will play at least somewhat of a role on this offense, after averaging 1.03 yards per route run and posting a 63/623/3 slash line with the Colts in 2022, mediocre numbers, but largely because of poor quarterback play with the Colts. Campbell was a 2nd round pick in 2019, but injuries limited him to 436 snaps in 15 games across those three seasons, though he did average 1.29 yards per route run across those three seasons when he had better quarterback play. Durability remains a concern with him, even after playing 17 games last season, but he’s still only going into his age 26 season and could continue being a decent option at wide receiver if he stays healthy.

Isaiah Hodgins will also likely continue having a role, after proving valuable as a mid-season signing last year, averaging 1.40 yards per route run with a 33/351/4 slash line in his final eight games of the season, after the Buffalo Bills gave up on the 2020 6th round pick too soon. Hodgins is a complete one-year wonder, never catching a pass prior to last season and catching just four passes with the Bills last year before they let him go mid-season, so he could prove to be a fluke, but he also still could be a useful receiver for them. The Giants lack a clear #1 wide receiver, but they do have a lot of options at the position and, overall, should be better than a year ago, even if that’s not saying much.

The Giants also added tight end Darren Waller this off-season, which was their biggest addition, sending a third round pick to the Raiders to acquire Waller and the 11.875 million he’s owed this season, and he could be the de facto #1 receiver for this team. In his prime, Waller was one of the best tight ends in the league, posting 83.2 and 86.5 grades on PFF in 2019 and 2020 respectively, while totaling slash lines of 90/1146/3 and 107/1196/9 respectively, while averaging 2.35 yards per route run total.

However, Waller has missed 14 games with injury over the past two seasons combined, while watching his yards per route run averages drop to 1.74 and 1.58 and his slash lines drop to 55/665/2 and 28/388/3 respectively, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he seems to be on the decline, with his best days almost definitely behind him. Waller has some bounce back potential and could still be a useful weapon for this team, especially given their lack of a top level receiver, but it’s unlikely he’ll bounce back all the way to his best and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining or suffered another injury.

At the very least though, Waller should be an upgrade over Daniel Bellinger, who averaged 0.83 yards per route run last season and managed just a 30/268/2 slash line in 12 games. Bellinger was also only a rookie last season, selected in the 4th round, so he could take a step forward in his second year in the league in 2023. He’s unlikely to see the same target share (35 targets in 12 games) he had last season with Waller now in town, but he could be a much more efficient pass catcher as the #2 tight end than he was as the starter last season and he’s a solid blocker as well. This receiving corps lacks a true coverage changer or go-to receiver, with the closest thing they have being an aging, injury prone tight end, but this isn’t a bad group and they should be noticeably better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Giants also used a big chunk of their cap space to retain free agent feature back Saquon Barkley, currently on the 1-year, 10.091 million dollar franchise tag and potentially in line to receive a long-term extension before the start of the season. Barkley was a big part of this offense’s success last season, rushing for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns on 295 carries (4.45 YPC), a big boost for this offense after Barkley had previously been limited to 627 yards and 2 touchdowns on 181 carries (3.46 YPC) over the previous two seasons combined, due to injuries that cost him 18 games total and limited him in several others.

Durability remains a concern for Barkley, who also missed 3 games in his second season in the league in 2019 too, but he’s surpassed 4.40 YPC, 200 carries, and 1,000 yards rushing in three of his five seasons in the league, so he’s proven to be a high level runner when healthy, even on an offense that has often lacked talent around him to help give him room to run. He’s also been heavily utilized in the passing game, with 247 catches and 336 targets in 60 career games, but that’s been more out of necessity than anything and he hasn’t been terribly efficient, averaging just 7.37 yards per catch, 5.42 yards per target, and 1.20 yards per route run in his career. Assuming he can stay healthy and can come to an agreement on his contract, Barkley should remain a talented feature back for this offense, but there is some risk of another injury or an extended holdout.

The Giants aren’t well prepared for an extended Barkley absence, with Matt Breida returning as the backup running back for the second straight year, with only 5th round rookie Eric Gray added to the mix this off-season. Breida does have an impressive 4.81 YPC for his career, but he has just 520 carries in 6 seasons in the league, with a career high for 153 carries in a season. A combination of him and the rookie Eric Gray would obviously be a downgrade from Barkley if he were to miss time, but, at the same time, the Giants also don’t have horrible depth either. Barkley being healthy and not holding out is key to this backfield and that’s not a guarantee, but this is still a good backfield overall.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Giants’ offensive line was also a big area of need this off-season, but the Giants didn’t really have enough resources left over to address it in a significant way. They weren’t horrible overall, ranking 24th in team pass block grade on PFF and 14th in team run blocking grade, but that was because the dominant play of left tackle Andrew Thomas elevated this group significantly. Thomas finished the season above 80 on PFF in both run blocking and pass blocking grade and finished 3rd among offensive tackles overall with a 89.1 grade.

Last season was the best season of Thomas’ career, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as Thomas was the 4th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and has been on an upwards trajectory since entering the league, receiving a 62.4 grade from PFF in 15 starts as a rookie and a 78.9 grade in 13 starts in his second season in the league in 2021, before last year’s career best year. Thomas might not be quite as good again this season, but he’s also only in his age 24 season and should remain one of the top players at his position for years to come, even if he’s not quite as dominant as he was a year ago every season.

In total, the Giants had ten different players make starts for them on the offensive line last season, but, outside of Thomas, only one other player, right guard Mark Glowinski, received a grade higher than 60 on PFF and he was only at 63.3. Glowinski has been a solid starter for most of his career, making 9 or more starts in 6 of 8 seasons in the league and finishing above 60 on PFF in all 6 of those seasons, with a pair of finishes above 70 in 2018 and 2021. However, Glowinski is now heading into his age 31 season and will likely start to decline soon, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was a little bit more of a liability than usual this season, even if he still has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter.

Despite the Giants’ problems on the offensive line, the only real addition they made to this group was using a second round pick on Minnesota center John Michael Schmitz, who is a heavy favorite to start at center as a rookie, replacing free agent departure Jon Feliciano, who had a 58.2 grade in 15 starts. Schmitz profiles as a solid starter long-term, but could struggle through some growing pains as a rookie. However, the only other true center on this team is JC Hassenhauer, a career backup (7 starts since going undrafted in 2018) who will almost definitely remain a backup, so Schmitz has a pretty clear path to a starting role in year one.

Aside from starting the rookie Schmitz or career backup Hassenhauer, the only other option the Giants have at center is moving one of their guards inside, but none of them have any real experience at the position and left guard is a position of weakness itself. Ben Bredeson made a team leading 8 starts at left guard last season, but finished with just a 56.7 PFF grade and the 2020 4th round pick hasn’t been better than that in the past, playing just 342 total snaps in his first two seasons combined in the league prior to 2022 and finishing below 60 on PFF in both seasons. He may still have some untapped potential, but it’s more likely that he remains a backup caliber player going forward.

Bredeson will face competition from Joshua Ezeudu, a 2022 3rd round pick who struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade on 290 rookie year snaps but who could be better in year two, Marcus McKethan, a 2022 5th round pick who missed his entire rookie season with injury, and Shane Lemieux, a 2020 5th round pick who received a 32.2 PFF grade in 9 starts as a rookie and who has since been limited to just 56 total snaps in two seasons due to injuries. Left guard will almost definitely remain a position of weakness for this team in 2023, while center could as well if Schmitz can’t be a starting caliber player right away in year one.

Right tackle was also a position of weakness for the Giants in 2022, but they are hoping for a lot more out of 2022 7th overall pick Evan Neal, who struggled mightily as a rookie with a 44.1 PFF grade in 14 starts, but who still has the potential to develop into an above average starter long-term. I would expect him to take a big leap forward in year two and, while that big leap might only make him a capable starter, that would still be a boost for this offensive line. Even after a rough rookie year, he is still a better option for the Giants than swing tackle candidates Tyre Phillips, a 2020 3rd round pick who has finished below average in all three seasons in the league (18 starts), and Matt Peart, another 2020 3rd round pick, who has just 6 career starts. This offensive line still figures to have problems this season, but they could be better than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Giants also had problems on defense last season. They had some standout players, with several starters having above average seasons, but they also had their weaknesses, they lacked depth, and they had a lot of injuries, with the 3rd most adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league. They should be healthier this season, but they didn’t add a lot on this side of the ball this off-season, so they still figure to have some problems.

The interior defender position is a great example, as they had a pair of above average starters, Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, who received grades of 92.0 and 77.9 respectively from PFF, but Williams missed 5 games with injury and their depth was horrible, with Justin Ellis (362 snaps), Nick Williams (227 snaps), Henry Mondeaux (249 snaps), and Ryder Anderson (152 snaps) finishing with grades of 31.3, 59.9, 29.7, and 43.0 respectively from PFF.

The Giants did at least try to upgrade their depth at this position, letting all of the aforementioned players leave this off-season except Anderson, who is not a lock for the final roster, and adding veterans A’Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and Vernon Butler in free agency. The Giants could also give more playing time to 2022 5th round pick DJ Davidson, though he struggled mightily in his very limited (43 snaps) rookie year action.

Robinson is probably the best of the bunch. He’s never been much of a pass rusher with a 5.4% pressure rate for his career and a combination of injuries and his lack of pass rush ability have limited him to just 988 snaps in 35 games over the past three seasons combined, but he’s still only in his age 28 season and has finished above 60 on PFF against the run in all but one of his seven seasons in the league, so he should at least be a solid early down run defender for this team.

Nunez-Roches struggles even more as a pass rusher, with a career 4.1% pressure rate and he’s not nearly good enough against the run to make up for it, leading to him finishing below 60 overall on PFF in five of his eight seasons in the league, while averaging just 311 snaps per season with a career high of 548, which came last season when he had a 56.2 overall PFF grade and a 3.2% pressure rate. Now going into his age 30 season, I wouldn’t expect anything more out of him this season and he could easily decline and struggle even more.

Butler, meanwhile, is a former first round pick and flashed potential early in his career, but he’s never played more than 440 snaps in a season in 7 seasons in the league and he has finished below 60 on PFF in five straight seasons since his promising start, including a 34.5 PFF grade on 285 snaps in 2021, before only seeing 12 snaps all season in 2022. The Giants’ depth options at the interior defender position are probably by default better than a year ago, but they still would be in a lot of trouble at the position if one of their top-2, Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, ends up missing time with injury again.

The Giants will be hoping that doesn’t happen again, but injuries are part of the game and chances aren’t high that both players will play all 17 games. While they are on the field though, they should be one of the best interior defender duos in the league. Lawrence was the better of the two last season and he was better than basically any other interior defender in the league, ranking tied for 1st among interior defenders on PFF in overall grade, playing the run at a high level, but also adding 7.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate.

It was a career best year for Lawrence, but it didn’t come totally out of nowhere, as Lawrence was a first round pick in 2019 and played at an above average level throughout his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, receiving overall grades of 76.2, 79.7, and 68.6 from PFF on snap counts of 701, 655, and 759 respectively, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 22 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate in 48 games even before last year’s breakout season.

Lawrence might not be quite as good again in 2023, just because it’s hard for anyone to play at that level for two straight years, but it’s clear he is going to be one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come, still very much in his prime in his age 26 season. The Giants had to pay up to keep Lawrence long-term, extending him on a 4-year, 87.5 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the 4th highest paid interior defender in the league, but barring an unexpected catastrophic injury he figures to be worth every penny of that contract.

Williams is also a former first round pick, going 6th overall in 2015, and he’s been an above average starter ever since entering the league, surpassing 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league. A well-rounded and durable player, Williams has played 124 of 130 possible games in his career, with an average of 52.2 snaps per game, and he has received an above average grade from PFF for both his run defense and his pass rush in every season in the league. He’s also highly paid in the final year of a 3-year, 63 million dollar contract, which makes him the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary.

Williams doesn’t have a huge career sack total, with 38 in 124 career games, but he has great peripheral pass rush numbers, adding 129 hits and a 10.0% pressure rate to that sack total and is more or less worth his contract, given how good of an overall playoff he is. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Williams again in 2023. He and Lawrence are one of the best interior defender duos in the league and their depth is marginally better than a year ago, but they still would be in a lot of trouble if one of their top-2 missed significant time with injury.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Giants had an even worse depth/injury situation at the edge defender position last year and, unlike at the interior defender position, they didn’t have an elite top duo. Rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux had an impressive first season in the league, receiving a 71.9 PFF grade on 740 snaps, but he missed 3 games with injury and their second best edge defender Azeez Ojulari (62.4 PFF grade) missed 10 games and was limited to 230 snaps, which opened up playing time for Oshane Ximines (506 snaps), Jihad Ward (657 snaps), and Tomon Fox (320 snaps), who all struggled mightily, with PFF grades of 58.3, 43.7, and 40.1 respectively.

Unlike the interior defender position, the Giants didn’t make any real additions to this group this off-season and instead will just be hoping their starters can stay healthier, but, even if they can, this is still a position that could have been upgraded this off-season. Thibodeaux has a big upside and could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if Azeez Olujari can stay healthy, he might not be anything more than a marginal player, which he has been thus far in the NFL.

Olujari was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has the upside to be more than he’s been, but he had just a 58.3 PFF grade on 781 snaps as a rookie, totaling 8 sacks, but adding just 7 hits and a 9.3% pressure rate, before his middling performance last season in limited action, when he improved a little as a pass rusher, but struggled as a run defender. Olujari could take a step forward in year three if he can stay healthy, but that’s not a guarantee and he could remain more of a snap eater than anything.

Ximines and Ward are still on the team and figure to continue having roles, even though they are likely to continue struggling. Ximines was a third round pick in 2019 and was decent with a 60.8 PFF grade on 502 snaps as a rookie, but injuries limited him to 293 snaps in 14 games in his next two seasons, prior to last year’s underwhelming campaign. Now going into his age 27 season, it’s unlikely Ximines has much if any untapped upside left and, even if he can continue staying healthy, he should be marginal at best. Ward, meanwhile, was a second round pick back in 2015, but despite going into his 9th season in the league, he hasn’t really lived up to that, finishing below 60 on PFF in 6 of 8 seasons in the league, on an average of 336 snaps per season. I wouldn’t expect anything more from him in 2023.

The Giants also still have Tomon Fox, but the 2022 undrafted free agent shouldn’t be anything more than a deep reserve, even if he makes the final roster. Elerson Smith was a 4th round pick in 2021, but he has only played 121 snaps thus far in his career and might have trouble even beating out Fox for a final roster spot. Without any major additions to a group that was below average as a whole last season, the Giants are hoping for better health and potentially better play out of their top-2 edge defenders, who are a pair of recent high draft picks. There is upside here, but I wouldn’t expect above average overall play.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Linebacker was also a position of need for the Giants this off-season, as their top-3 linebackers a year ago in terms of snaps played were Jaylon Smith (626 snaps), Tae Crowder (445 snaps), and Micah McFadden (435 snaps) who received grades of 56.0, 29.6, and 38.7 respectively from PFF. The Giants did make one notable addition at the position, signing former Colts linebacker Bobby Okereke to a contract worth 40 million over 4 years in free agency, a move that could prove to be worth it, with Okereke coming off of a season in which he was PFF’s 21st ranked off ball linebacker with a 73.3 grade on 970 snaps.

Okereke is a one-year wonder playing at that level in an every down role though, flashing with a 78.4 PFF grade on 472 snaps as a rookie in 2019, but falling to 49.6 on 685 snaps in 2020 and 58.5 on 1,072 snaps in 2021, before his big contract year in 2022. Okereke was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down player, very much in his prime in his age 27 season, but he’s also a candidate to regress and might find it hard to repeat by far the best season of his career for the second straight season. Still, he figures to be a noticeable upgrade on what the Giants had at linebacker last season and he can play every down, which none of the Giants’ linebackers a year ago did.

Unfortunately, the Giants still have a big hole at the other linebacker spot next to Okereke, not making any other significant additions to this group this off-season. With Tae Crowder and Jaylon Smith gone, Micah McFadden is their top holdover from a year ago and the 2022 5th round pick could take a step forward in his second season in the league and play at a higher level in a larger role, but that’s far from a guarantee, considering how much he struggled in year one and how far he has to go to even be a competent linebacker, especially if they plan on using him in more of an every down capacity.

They may need McFadden to play close to an every down role though, as their other candidates for playing time next to Okereke are 2022 6th round pick Darrian Beavers, who didn’t play a snap on defense as a rookie, 2020 7th round pick Carter Coughlin, who has struggled mightily on 239 career snaps, 2020 6th round pick Cam Brown, who has also struggled on 109 career snaps, and veteran Jarrad Davis, who is an underwhelming option, but, by default might be their best competition for McFadden, even though the 6-year veteran has played just 517 snaps per season in his career, while finishing below 60 on PFF in 4 of 6 seasons. The addition of Bobby Okereke in free agency helps this group, but the rest of the bunch figures to continue struggling mightily, barring an unexpected breakout year from an inexperienced and unproven young player.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Giants also had a lot of injuries at the cornerback position last season. Adoree Jackson and Aaron Robinson were starters in week one, but were limited to 10 games and 2 games respectively due to injury, leading to Darnay Holmes and Fabian Moreau, expected to their #3 and #4 cornerbacks, instead being their top cornerbacks in terms of snaps with 572 and 749, which proved to be a big problem for this team, with Holmes and Moreau receiving grades of 43.7 and 53.8 respectively from PFF.

Holmes is still on the team, but Moreau is gone and Holmes is unlikely to continue seeing a significant role. Not only will Robinson and Jackson likely be healthier, but the Giants also used their first round pick on Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks, who has a good chance to start as a rookie alongside Jackson and potentially Robinson. The Giants also added Old Dominion cornerback Tre Hawkins in the 6th round of the draft, took a flier on veteran Amani Oruwariye, and they could give a bigger role to 2022 3rd round pick Cordale Flott, who was decent with a 65.8 PFF grade on 335 snaps as a rookie and who could push to start over Banks or Robinson in his second season in the league.

Jackson is locked in as a starter and the #1 cornerback as long as he’s healthy, although durability has been a consistent problem for him in his career, costing him 29 games in 6 seasons in the league since going in the first round in 2017. When healthy though, Jackson has mostly shown why he was a high draft pick, receiving a grade higher than 70 from PFF in 5 of 6 seasons in the league, including a 72.2 grade last season. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, but unfortunately more of the same will likely include more time missed with injury, having missed at least 4 games in each of the past four seasons. It’s a good thing the Giants have at least fortified their depth at this position this off-season in case of another Jackson injury.

Aaron Robinson, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick by the Giants in 2021 and looked on his way towards being a starter in 2022, but that was before the injury and he still really hasn’t played much in his career, seeing just 268 defensive snaps in 9 games as a rookie, so he’s probably not locked into a starting role with the rookie Banks being added and and Flott looking ready for a larger role. Robinson has flashed potential in his very limited action though and, still only in his age 25 season, he still has upside if he can stay healthy in his third season in the league, so he could easily end up as a week one starter again.

With a top-4 of Jackson, Banks, Robinson, and Flott in some order, that only leaves deep reserve roles available at most for Darnay Holmes, a 2020 4th round pick who has finished below average on PFF in all three seasons in the league on an average of 432 snaps per season, Amani Oruwariye, who has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons, including a 30.0 PFF grade on 474 snaps in 2022, and the rookie Tre Hawkins, who, by virtue of his status as a late round draft pick, seems unlikely to be able to make a significant impact in year one. This is a much deeper cornerback group than a year ago and they should be healthier as well.

The Giants did lose free agent safety Julian Love this off-season though, a big loss as he finished with a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,006 snaps last season. Fortunately, the Giants did sign Bobby McCain to replace him, who shouldn’t be too much of a downgrade. McCain has finished above 60 on PFF in 7 of 8 seasons in the league, including 62.1, 70.9, and 61.4 grades on PFF on snap counts of 923, 1,031, and 970 over the past three seasons respectively. The only concern with him is that he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him and I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good as Love, but he’s not totally over the hill so he could easily remain at least a capable starter.

The Giants are also likely to get more out of fellow starting safety Xavier McKinney, who missed 8 games with injury last season. McKinney finished with a 57.8 PFF grade on 554 snaps, but he earned grades of 70.0 and 75.4 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season and he was a 2nd round pick back in 2020, so he should bounce back in 2023 assuming he’s healthy, which would be a big boost for this secondary. Durability remains a concern, as he also missed 10 games as a rookie, limiting him to 211 snaps total, but he did make all 17 starts and play 1,134 snaps in 2021 and, only going into his age 24 season, he has the potential to be even better going forward and he could easily be an above average safety for years to come if he can consistently stay healthy.

In McKinney’s absence last season, Dane Belton (290 snaps) and Jason Pinnock (459 snaps) were forced into larger roles and they figure to be their top reserves again this season, along with Nick McCloud, a hybrid cornerback/safety who played 537 snaps between the two positions in 2022. Belton struggled mightily with a 30.6 grade in his limited role, but the 2022 4th round pick might be better in year two, while Pinnock and McCloud actually played pretty well, with grades of 61.3 and 67.0 respectively.

Pinnock was a 5th round pick in 2021 by the Jets and while he didn’t make the Jets’ final roster in year two, that was despite a 70.4 PFF grade on 202 rookie year snaps and he flashed that potential again in year two. McCloud, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2021 and only played 14 rookie year snaps, but could remain a solid reserve going forward, as could Pinnock, so the Giants have pretty good depth behind McKinney and McCain, who are also a solid safety duo. This secondary looks much improved from a year ago, when depth was suspect and was exposed by injuries to several key players.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Giants went 9-7-1 a year ago and got better this off-season, but they’re not as good as that suggests, as they had a -6 point differential and ranked just 21st in DVOA, meaning they’re improved from a lower base point than their record suggests. However, they have a pretty solid roster overall and, in the weak NFC, they have a pretty good shot to a wild card spot. They might not win more games than a year ago, or at least not significantly more so, but they’ll probably be a better team, especially if they can stay healthier on defense. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC East

Miami Dolphins 2023 NFL Season Preview

July 2, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Quarterback

No team has a wider range of outcomes at the quarterback position than Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Tagovailoa came into the league with a lot of upside as the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he was pretty underwhelming across his first two seasons in the league, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions (88.8 QB rating) in 21 starts, receiving season-long grades of 65.4 and 68.3 from PFF, and on multiple occasions getting injured or getting benched for a veteran mid-game.

However, going into his third season in the league in 2022, Tagovailoa got a much needed change of coaching on offense, with former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel becoming the new head coach and implementing a Shanahan style scheme, and he got much needed improvements in his supporting cast, which led to Tagovailoa being one of the best quarterbacks in the league to start last season. Through week 12, Tagovailoa completed 69.7% of his passes for an average of 9.03 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions (115.7 QB rating) and he had a 91.1 PFF grade, while winning all eight games in which he started and finished, with another two and a half games lost to injury.

Unfortunately, that’s where Tagovailoa’s story takes another turn as, after that hot start, he cooled down very quickly, completing just 52.6% of his passes for an average of 8.48 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (80.5 QB rating) with a 52.1 PFF grade in his final 4 starts, all of which were losses. Making matters worse, Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion of the season in week 16, which not only ended his year for good after costing him some time earlier in the season, but also puts his long-term future in doubt, as another significant concussion could be career-threatening or career-ending.

Heading into the off-season, a key one in which the Dolphins had to make a decision on guaranteeing Tagovailoa’s 23.171 million dollar option for 2024, it was tough to know what to make of Tagovailoa’s long-term projection, as he produced at an MVP level for the first half of last season, but has otherwise been mediocre as a starter and his high level of production last season might have been more because of the system and talent around him, rather than him legitimately playing like an elite quarterback, and now with that the league has caught on to the Dolphins’ scheme a little bit, Tagovailoa may continue to struggle. On top of that, there is also the long-term injury risk.

The Dolphins picked up the option, unwilling to effectively give up on Tagovailoa by declining it, but they haven’t committed to a long-term extension with him yet, with Tagovailoa set to hit free agency after 2024. Tagovailoa legitimately has the potential to be among the top quarterbacks and MVP candidates this season if he can stay healthy and play up to his potential, but he also just as easily could get hurt, and, even if he manages to stay healthy, he could continue to struggle like he did in the second half of last season and for much of the first two seasons of his career.

The Dolphins have continued to aggressively build this roster this off-season, ranking 8th in average annual value of the contracts on their roster, a stat that correlates heavily with winning, so if Tagovailoa plays close to the high end of his range of projections, the Dolphins are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and if he struggles or gets hurt, he would be holding a talented team back from reaching its goals. The uncertainty at this position makes the Dolphins a tough team to project this season, but their upside is as high as any team in the league.

With Tagovailoa’s performance and durability being question marks, the backup quarterback position takes on more importance. Last season, reserves Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson threw 184 passes and made four starts, completing 59.2% of those passes for 6.61 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions (72.2 QB rating), which isn’t horrible production, but they were aided by the scheme and talent around them and the Dolphins went just 1-4 in the five games in which Bridgewater and/or Thompson played all or most of the game, as opposed to 8-4 in games in which Tagovailoa played most of the game.

The Dolphins let Bridgewater walk this off-season and, unwilling to commit to 2022 7th round pick Skylar Thompson as the primary backup, they replaced Bridgewater with another veteran, former Jets quarterback Mike White, who gets paid towards the higher end of the price range for backup quarterbacks on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal. White was a 5th round pick in 2018 by the Cowboys, but never threw a regular season pass until 2021 with the Jets, with whom he made seven starts over the past two seasons and completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (75.4 QB rating). He’s a solid backup and the Dolphins are talented enough around him that they could survive him starting for an extended period of time, but they will need Tagovailoa to stay relatively healthy and play at close to his highest level for this team to legitimately compete at the highest level. It’s one of the most unpredictable situations in the NFL.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest thing the Dolphins did to upgrade their supporting cast last off-season was acquiring Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill came at a steep price, costing the Dolphins a first and second round pick, as well as an extension that would set Hill up to make 95.865 million over the next four seasons, but, along with Jaylen Waddle, who the Dolphins added the off-season before with the 6th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Dolphins had the best wide receiver duo in the league last season. Hill and Waddle were just one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving last season and they were the only duo to both surpass 1200 yards receiving, doing so by a pretty wide margin, taking 170 targets and 117 targets respectively for slash lines of 119/1710/7 and 75/1356/8 respectively, ranking them second and seventh respectively in the NFL in terms of receiving yardage.

Those slash lines and target totals come out to an average completion percentage of 67.6%, an average of 10.7 yards per target, and 15 touchdowns to 8 interceptions when targeted, good for a QB rating of 108.7 when targeted, almost 14 points above their team average. They accounted for 51.1% of their team’s targets and a whopping 64.3% of their team’s receiving yardage. In terms of yards per route run, Hill and Waddle ranked 1st and 3rd respectively among wide receivers at 3.20 and 2.59, and in PFF grade they ranked 1st and 10th respectively at 92.1 and 83.9. For both players, it was a career best year in terms of receiving yards, but there is reason to believe they can at least come close to repeating last year’s performance again in 2023.

Hill is still in his prime in his age 29 season and had averaged a 95/1368/11 slash line per 17 games in his five seasons in Kansas City prior to joining the Dolphins last off-season, exceeding 80 on PFF in all five seasons, while Waddle is still only going into his third season in the league and has shown the potential to be one of the best wide receivers in the league even dating back to his rookie season, when his 78.3 PFF grade, 104/1015/6 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run average were all impressive for a rookie who was playing on an overall underwhelming offense.

Waddle and Hill are both among the best wide receivers in the league and, even if they aren’t quite as good as a year ago, they still have a good chance to remain the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, as the gap between them and the rest of the league was pretty big last season. With Hill and Waddle as their top-two, there wasn’t much need for other targets in this passing game, but the Dolphins did have an underwhelming receiving corps behind them last season, which would have been a problem had either one of Hill or Waddle suffered a significant injury, and their depth doesn’t seem much better this season, so that remains a concern.

Trent Sherfield and Mike Gesicki averaged just 1.04 yards per route and 1.02 yards per route run as the #3 wide receiver and top receiving tight end respectively last season and are no longer with the team. Slot specialist Braxton Berrios was signed to replace Sherfield and the Dolphins took a flier on veteran Robbie Anderson as well, while Cedrick Wilson, who they signed to a 3-year, 22.05 million dollar deal last off-season, could have a better year in year two with the Dolphins, after falling down the depth chart and playing just 237 snaps last season.

Berrios averaged just 0.81 yards per route run last season, but that was on a horrendous Jets passing game and he had averaged 1.84 yards per route run as a slot specialist across his three prior seasons, so he has some bounce back potential, only in his age 28 season. Wilson does as well, as he is also in his age 28 season and averaged 1.56 yards per route run in four seasons with the Cowboys, prior to joining the Dolphins and averaging just 0.99 yards per route run last season. He was mostly a rotational player and spot starter in Dallas, so he’s not a proven starter, but the Dolphins don’t really need much more than that from him.

Anderson also could have some bounce back potential, but he’s going into his age 30 season and you have to go back to 2020 for his last good season, as his average has dropped from 1.66 yards per route run over his first five seasons in the league to 0.84 over the past two seasons. The Dolphins don’t have bad reserve options behind Waddle and Hill, but they’re an underwhelming bunch, so the Dolphins will obviously need Waddle and Hill to continue staying healthy and being the focal point of this offense.

At tight end, the Dolphins didn’t really replace Gesicki and figure to just de-emphasize the tight end position even more in this offense, after targeting the position just 72 times last season (12.3% of their pass attempts), even with Gesicki being a proven receiver who was coming off back-to-back seasons of 700+ receiving yards. Durham Smythe, who played 557 snaps last season as mostly a blocker (0.81 yards per route run, 15/129/1 slash line), will probably play a bigger role this season, but probably still won’t see much of an uptick in receiving production, with a career 1.04 yards per route run average in five seasons since being selected in the 4th round by the Dolphins in 2018.

The Dolphins also signed veterans Eric Saubert and Tyler Kroft this off-season, but they are just blocking specialists (0.71 yards per route run and 0.95 yards per route run in their careers) and played 395 snaps and 238 snaps respectively last season, so neither figures to contribute much in the passing game either. This offense will continue to run through Waddle and Hill, who are the best wide receiver duo in the league and obviously elevate this group by a massive amount, but will need to both stay healthy for this offense to have a chance to be a top level unit.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another big way in which the Dolphins supporting cast was better in 2022 than 2021 was on the offensive line, which was previously a weakness for years. The single biggest difference was the addition of former Saints left tackle Terron Armstead on a 5-year, 75 million dollar deal in free agency. It was a risky contract to give Armstead, as he was on the wrong side of 30 and had an alarming injury history, missing at least one game in all nine seasons in New Orleans, with 48 games missed total.

However, Armstead also finished above 70 on PFF in eight of those nine seasons, with five seasons over 80, and his high level play continued into his first season in Miami, as he finished with a 77.5 PFF grade. Armstead still missed another four games with injury and now heads into his age 32 season, so he figures to miss more time at some point this season and could easily decline in a noticeable way, but he still has a good chance to be an above average starter even if he’s not at his best and, as long as he plays close to the full season, he should be an asset to this offensive line again, even if it’s not to the extent he was last season.

The Dolphins also signed former Cowboys center Connor Williams to a 2-year, 14.035 million dollar deal last off-season and that paid off in a big way as he made 17 starts and received a 78.4 grade from PFF. It was a career best year for Williams, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2018 2nd round pick also received a 71.2 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2020 and a 76.1 grade in 14 starts in 2021. In those two seasons he primarily played left guard and his versatility just makes him even more valuable to this offensive line. Still going into his age 26 season, I would expect Williams to continue playing around the same level and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he matched or even slightly exceeded his career best performance from 2022.

Another free agent addition that ended up being important was right tackle Brandon Shell, even though he didn’t even come to the Dolphins until he was signed off the practice squad early in the season, when incumbent right tackle Austin Jackson got injured. Shell made his first start in week 6 and finished the season with a 64.9 grade in 12 starts. That’s unspectacular, but the Dolphins had gotten poor play at right tackle for years prior to last season and at first it looked like last season would be more of the same, with Jackson and his initial replacement Greg Little both struggling, finishing the season with PFF grades of 57.9 and 34.6 respectively.

Shell wasn’t retained this off-season and Jackson looks like the favorite to get his job back, which is a concern, as Jackson has struggled throughout his career, receiving PFF grades of 52.5 and 49.9 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, in a total of 28 starts, but Jackson is a former first round pick who is only going into his age 24 season, so he could take a step forward and be more of a capable starter in year four and, if not, the Dolphins do have other options, signing veterans Isaiah Wynn and Cedric Ogbuehi in free agency this off-season. Wynn seems like their best option at the position. He had a just 54.6 PFF grade in seven starts with the Patriots in 2022, but he was a first round pick in 2018 and he was a lot better with grades of 69.9, 82.6, and 74.9 in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Injuries have always been a problem for Wynn, costing him 39 games in five seasons in the league, and they may have sapped his abilities a little bit, leading to him having a down year in his contract year last season, which limited him to 2.3 million on a 1-year deal in free agency from Miami, a steep decrease from the 10.413 million he made on the 5th year option of his first round rookie deal last season, but Wynn does have some bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, only in his age 27 season, and he could prove to be a worthwhile flier on a cheap one-year deal.

Wynn also gives the Dolphins versatility with his ability to play guard, so, even if he’s just a reserve to start the season, he could prove to be valuable for the Dolphins one way or another.

Ogbuehi is also a former first round pick, but he’s mostly been a middling reserve in his career, with just 35 career starts since being selected in the first round in 2015, with just 10 of those coming in the past five seasons, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he’s not as intriguing of an option as Wynn and might not even be a guarantee to make the final roster.

Another reason for this offensive line’s improvement last season was right guard Robert Hunt having the best year of his career, finishing with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. That didn’t come out of nowhere for Hunt either, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and received grades of 66.0 and 67.4 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league, across a total of 28 starts. Still only in his age 27 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he repeated his career best 2022 season again in 2023.

Left guard was a weakness for a lot of last season, with second year player Liam Eichenberg making 10 starts and finishing with a horrendous 39.8 PFF grade, but he was replaced in the lineup by 2021 undrafted free agent Robert Jones when Eichenberg was hurt and Jones proved to be an upgrade, receiving a 62.0 grade in 7 starts. Jones is still pretty unproven as a former undrafted free agent who only played 79 snaps in his rookie season prior to his extended stint as a spot starter last year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued to keep the starting job, even if he’s an underwhelming option.

Eichenberg probably has a higher upside, as a 2nd round pick in 2021, but he struggled in 16 starts as a rookie as well and he has a long way to go to even be a middling starter. Right tackle and left guard are questionable positions and left tackle Terron Armstead is an aging injury risk, but Armstead, Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams give the Dolphins a trio of high level starters when they’re healthy and the Dolphins don’t have bad depth on the offensive line either.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Dolphins didn’t make any splash additions at the running back position last off-season, but they did get a good year out of free agent signing Raheem Mostert, who rushed for 891 yards and 3 touchdowns on 181 carries, giving him 4.92 YPC and a 55% carry success rate that was 9th best among eligible running backs. That’s nothing new for Mostert, who has a career 5.38 YPC average, mostly in the Shanahan style offense that the Dolphins run. What was new was him staying healthy for most of the season, playing in 16 of 17 games, after missing 36 of a possible 81 in the previous five seasons, with his career high carries in a season being 137 and just 465 total carries in eight seasons in the league.

Mostert now heads into his age 31 season and could decline and/or get injured, but he’s not the only former 49ers running back the Dolphins added last season, trading for Jeff Wilson mid-season and giving him 84 carries in the final 8 games of the season, which he took for 4.67 YPC and 3 touchdowns, while finishing the season 20th in carry success rate out of 42 eligible running backs at 51%. Wilson’s addition was especially big for this offense because it coincided with the Dolphins trading away Chase Edmonds, who was a poor fit in this offense and averaged just 2.86 YPC on 42 carries in eight games.

Wilson’s performance last season was also nothing new for him, as he has averaged 4.48 YPC on 474 carries in five seasons in the league, but he’s also an injury concern, as last season he set career highs with 16 games played and 176 carries in a season, with his previous highs being 12 games played and 126 carries. After Wilson joined the Dolphins, he and Mostert had a 84/80 carry split in the final eight games of the season, helping keeping each other fresh, and the Dolphins added further depth to this backfield when they added Texas A&M’s De’Von Achane in the third round of the draft. He might not start as a rookie, but figures to have at least a rotational role with Mostert and Wilson and, given the injury history of those two, Achane starting at some point next season is definitely a possibility.

The Dolphins don’t throw to running backs that much, with their passing game heavily focused around Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Raheem Mostert did see 42 targets as the primary passing down back. He wasn’t very efficient with those targets though, taking them for a 31/202/2 slash line (4.81 yards per target) and averaging just 0.69 yards per route run, but he has a 1.25 yards per route run average in his career aside from last season and his poor yards per route run average last season was in part due to the Dolphins not using their running backs in the passing game much.

Wilson also didn’t do much in the passing game last season, taking 24 targets for just 12 catches for 94 yards (3.92 yards per target) and a touchdown in 8 games, while averaging 0.73 yards per route run, but that’s nothing new for him, as he’s averaged just 0.83 yards per route run in his career. Wilson figures to see a pretty minimal passing game role again in 2023, with Mostert as the primary passing down back again and Achane also having pass catching upside, after catching 60 passes across his final two seasons in college. The Dolphins also still have Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin on this roster and, at times, they have been lead backs for this team in the past, but they’re both very underwhelming options who are not guaranteed to make the final roster, after 2022 campaigns in which they saw just 13 and 14 touches respectively.

Ahmed has been in the league for three seasons, but the former undrafted free agent has averaged just 3.77 yards per carry and 1.02 yards per route run, while seeing just 165 total touches in his career, while Gaskin is somewhat more experienced with 462 career touches and he has a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he also has just a 3.75 yards per carry average in four seasons since being selected in the 7th round in 2019. They’re not roster locks in a backfield that is much deeper than it has been in recent years, even if it lacks a true lead back or a good passing down option.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As they have done with their supporting cast on offense, the Dolphins have been aggressive adding talent on defense in recent years. During last season, they traded away a first round pick to the Denver Broncos for Bradley Chubb, who had an expiring contract and received a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension from the Dolphins upon arriving in Miami, making him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league in average annual salary.

In his first half season with the team, Chubb wasn’t really worth what the Dolphins gave up for him in terms of financial resources and draft capital, as his pass rush numbers were middling (2.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate) and his run defense was subpar. Chubb was the 5th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and has shown stretches of being a high level pass rusher, but he has missed 25 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, his total pass rush numbers are good, but not what you would expect from a high level edge defender (28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games), and his run defense has consistently been a problem, limiting him to a career high season-long grade from PFF of just 70.7 overall.

However, even if the Dolphins probably did overpay, Chubb should be an asset for this team and I would expect his performance in his second season in Miami to be better than his underwhelming first half season with the team. Chubb didn’t get to play much with Emmanuel Ogbah, who was the Dolphins’ sacks leader in 2021 with nine, but who was limited to just 326 snaps in nine games by injury in 2022, overlapping with Chubb for just two games. Ogbah also struggled even when on the field in 2022, finishing the season with a 52.1 PFF grade, with just 1 sack, 6 hits, and a 6.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

That performance last season is a concern with Ogbah now heading into his age 30 season, but, even if his best days are behind him, Ogbah isn’t totally over the hill yet and could at least bounce back somewhat from last year’s down year, after totaling 23.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 43 games in his previous three seasons prior to last season, with a PFF grade over 65 in all three seasons, including a career best 77.0 as recently as 2021. Ogbah and Chubb should both give the Dolphins more than they did a year ago, even if they’re not at their best.

Even if Chubb and Ogbah give them more than a year ago, the Dolphins best edge defender should still be Jaelan Phillips, who played 838 snaps and finished with a 87.7 PFF grade a year ago. Phillips was the 18th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and had 8.5 sacks as a rookie, but his peripheral pass rush stats were underwhelming, with 8 hits and a 9.7% pressure rate, while his run defense was horrendous, leading to Phillips finishing below average with an overall 53.7 grade from PFF.

In 2022, Phillips’ sack total was actually slightly less (7), but his peripheral pass rush stats were a lot better, adding 19 sacks and a 14.6% pressure rate, while drastically improving against the run, leading to his overall high grade, finishing 6th among edge defenders in PFF grade. Phillips is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and might not play quite as well in 2023, but, even if he regresses a little bit, he should remain a well above average overall player and he has the upside to continue being one of the top players at his league for years to come, even if he’s not quite as good as he was a year ago.

The Dolphins also have Andrew Van Ginkel, who played 333 snaps a year ago, and free agent acquisition Malik Reed as reserve options. Both are primarily base package players who are better against the run than they are as pass rushers. Van Ginkel is a good all-around reserve though, with a career 11.1% pressure rate and three straight seasons above 70 on PFF, doing so despite playing bigger snap counts (479 snaps and 801 snaps) in the previous two seasons prior to 2022. Reed, meanwhile, has exceeded 65 in run defense in three of four seasons in the league, on an average of 597 total snaps per season, but he has just a 7.2% career pressure rate. Van Ginkel and Reed provide even more depth at a very deep position group, led by a trio of players who could all be above average edge rushers this season.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins don’t have the same kind of depth at the interior defender position as they do on the edge, but they can use their depth on the edge to offset their lack of depth on the interior somewhat, lining up an edge defender on the interior in sub packages as a pass rush specialist somewhat regularly, and the Dolphins at least have a high level every down starting duo at the interior defender position, with Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler coming off seasons in which they finished with PFF grades of 85.1 and 74.7 respectively and saw snap counts of 952 snaps and 847 snaps respectively.

Both players have performed at that level before. Wilkins was a first round pick in 2019 who broke out with a 83.8 PFF grade on 734 snaps in 2021, after PFF grades of 64.4 and 68.9 on snap counts of 730 and 637 in his first two seasons in the league, while Sieler was only a 7th round choice in 2018, but received 76.2, 69.3, and 84.9 grades from PFF on snap counts of 118, 532, and 518 in the three seasons prior to last season in the 2019-2021 seasons respectively. With both going into their age 28 seasons, I would expect more of the same. Both are at their best against the run, but they also added 7 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.5% pressure rate between the two of them last season, so they were pretty well-rounded players.

Raekwon Davis was their top interior defender aside from Wilkins and Sieler in 2022 and he struggled mightily with a 43.4 PFF grade on 583 snaps. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but also struggled mightily with a 36.5 PFF grade on 424 snaps in an injury plagued 2021 season as well, prior to struggling last season. He was a solid run defender as a rookie, but his run defense has dropped off significantly in the past two seasons and he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.3% pressure rate for his career. Davis is still young, in his age 26 season, and could still have bounce back potential, but his best case scenario most likely is being just a decent base package run defender and he could easily continue struggling.

Davis will have to be their primary reserve though, because the Dolphins simply lack another good option at the position. Aside from Wilkins, Sieler, and Davis, the Dolphins also have 2021 6th round pick Jaylen Twyman, who has never played a defensive snap, 2021 undrafted free agent Josiah Bronson, who has played 168 mediocre snaps in his career, as well as a trio of undrafted rookies, none of whom are locks to make this final roster. This is a very thin group behind Wilkins and Sieler, but Wilkins and Sieler are at least an above average every down starting duo and the Dolphins could somewhat mask their lack of depth on the interior with their depth on the edge.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Dolphins didn’t add as much to this defense this off-season as they have in previous recent off-seasons, but they did make a couple key moves, one of which being the addition of linebacker David Long from the Titans on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal. Long has received grades of 67.4 and 76.2 from PFF over the past two seasons as an every down player, averaging 62.5 snaps played per game, and he is still only going into his age 27 season, but durability is a concern, as he’s missed 12 games total over the past two seasons and has missed at least one game in all four seasons in the league, since being selected in the 6th round by the Titans in 2019.

When he’s on the field, Long should be an upgrade on incumbent Elandon Roberts, who received a 57.1 PFF grade last season, and he should play more of an every down role too, with Roberts playing just 39.8 snaps per game in 17 games last season, but Long is much more of an injury risk and is likely to miss at least some time with injury again. Duke Riley played 364 snaps as the top reserve a year ago and, while he probably won’t have much of a role as long as Long is healthy, he could easily find himself having to make start in Long’s absence, assuming Riley can beat out 2022 3rd round pick Channing Tindall for the top reserve role, not a guarantee even though Tindall played just 10 snaps as a rookie, as Tindall still does have a significant upside long-term. Riley, meanwhile, finished last season with a 59.1 PFF grade and has been below 60 in four of six seasons in the league, so there’s room for improvement on him, even as a reserve.

Jerome Baker, meanwhile, will remain the other every down linebacker next to David Long and he should be a more reliable option in terms of durability, playing 81 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, while averaging 60.4 snaps per game over the past four seasons. The problem with Baker is he has been pretty inconsistent in his career. He finished last season with a 78.0 PFF grade on 1,010 snaps and he has another season with a PFF grade of 70+ on his resume, but it was only a 70.7 PFF grade and it came back in his rookie season in 2018, while his other three season-long grades were 46.7, 55.2, and 60.9.

Baker is still young and in his prime, only in his age 27 season, but it’s hard to imagine him being consistent enough to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023 and there’s a good chance he declines significantly from a year ago. Fortunately, the addition of David Long should offset Baker’s likely decline, at least somewhat, and Baker and Long are still a solid starting duo, with decent depth behind them, so this is a pretty solid position group, even if Baker doesn’t end up being as good as a year ago.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The biggest addition the Dolphins made this off-season was trading a third round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long to the Rams for Jalen Ramsey, who they signed to a new 3-year, 55 million dollar deal upon arrival. The 5th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Ramsey has been one of the top cornerbacks in the league since being drafted, starting 107 of 108 games played in seven seasons in the league (114 total possible games) and surpassing 70 on PFF in all six seasons, with three seasons over 80, including grades of 84.5 and 86.4 over the past two seasons.

The Rams were in cap hell and lacking draft capital, so they decided to move Ramsey, but he is still only in his age 29 season and could remain a top level cornerback for at least another season or two before he starts declining. His addition should be a big boost for a secondary that had just one cornerback play more than 300 snaps and finish above 60 on PFF in 2022, with no cornerbacks above 70. The Dolphins should also get a better year out of their other starting outside cornerback Xavien Howard, who had finished above 70 on PFF in three of the previous four seasons prior to falling to 58.4 in 2022.

Howard now heads into his age 30 season, which is a concern, but his struggles last season were mostly due to an injury that he played through and, even if his best days are behind him, he still has a lot of bounce back potential as, even at less than his best, he could easily be an above average cornerback. I would expect more from Howard in 2023, assuming he’s healthier, which is not a guarantee, as he’s missed 27 games in seven seasons in the league. Even with Howard’s durability concerns though, with Ramsey coming in, the Dolphins have a good chance to have a pair of above average outside cornerbacks, at a position that was kind of a weakness a year ago.

The Dolphins best cornerback a year ago in terms of PFF grade was actually undrafted rookie Kader Kohou, who played 895 snaps and posted a 69.8 grade. That could prove to be a fluke and Kohou might not be as good again, as he hasn’t shown enough yet to ignore the fact that the whole league, including the Dolphins, let him go undrafted a year ago, but he’s at least earned the chance to keep the #3 cornerback job and could remain a solid player in that role.

The Dolphins also have good alternatives in case Kohou slips up in his second season in the league, using a 2nd round pick on South Carolina’s Cam Smith and also retaining veteran free agent Nik Needham, who was limited to 294 snaps in six games by injury last season, but who has generally been a middling player on an average of 566 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, with 27 starts in 51 career games played. The Dolphins are pretty deep at the cornerback position and their top-3 have a high upside, even if there’s risk of downside if Howard gets hurt or continues to decline or if Kohou proves his rookie year to be sort of a fluke.

The Dolphins didn’t make any big additions at the safety position, but they will get starting safety Brandon Jones back from an injury that limited him to 347 snaps in seven games last season. Jones only had a 61.1 PFF grade overall and was much better as a run defender (73.3) and blitzer (65.2) than he was in coverage (52.4), which is par for the course from the 2020 3rd round pick, who received grades of 60.8 and 53.4 from PFF on snap counts of 385 and 644 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, while finishing below 60 on pass coverage grade in all three seasons in the league. However, he was still missed when he was hurt, as backup Eric Rowe had a 57.3 grade on 567 snaps and didn’t excel in any aspects of the game.

This season, Jones should get his starting job back, but the Dolphins did add better insurance behind him, replacing Rowe with free agent DeShon Elliott. Elliott can be a capable starter if the Dolphins need him to, receiving grades of 66.6, 65.6, and 66.5 over the past three seasons as a starter, but he comes with his own durability concerns, missing 14 of a possible 50 games over those three seasons. Perhaps moving him to a reserve role will make it easier for him to stay healthy and he is good insurance to have if needed, given his history of being a capable starter.

Jevon Holland remains as the other starting safety opposite Jones. He had a solid 65.5 grade in 17 starts last season, but that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick burst onto the scene with a 84.7 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie. Still only going into his age 23 season, Holland has plenty of bounce back potential in his third season in the league and he could easily still develop into one of the consistently best safeties in the league for years to come. I would expect a better year from him in 2023. WIth Holland and Howard likely to bounce back and Ramsey being added, this secondary is much improved from a year ago.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

On defense, the Dolphins finished last season 15th in DVOA and they should be better this year, probably noticeably, with likely bounce back years coming from Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland, the addition of Jalen Ramsey, and Emmanuel Ogbah and Bradley Chubb likely to give them more than a year ago. The Dolphins also have a strong supporting cast on offense and have the potential to get high level play from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which would make this team among the favorites in the NFL.

Unfortunately, Tagovailoa comes with a history of injury and inconsistency, so the Dolphins are not necessarily likely to get the best case scenario out of Tagovailoa, and not getting a high level season out of Tagovailoa would hurt their chances of being high level contenders. As long as Tagovailoa doesn’t miss the whole season or drop off completely, this should at least be a playoff team, even in the loaded AFC, with the upside for more and they are among the most intriguing sleepers in the league, but they come with some downside as well. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC East

New York Jets 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 29, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Jets

Quarterback

The Jets have by far the longest active streak of not making the post-season in the NFL, with their last appearance being 2010 and every other team having made it since 2016, including all but five teams making it since 2020. When you look at the quarterback position, it’s easy to see why the Jets have failed to make the post-season for so long, as they have started 13 different quarterbacks since their last post-season appearance, including six different regular starting quarterbacks in 12 seasons. That’s not for lack of investment at the quarterback position though and, in fact, dating back to 2006, no team has spent more picks in the first two rounds on the quarterback position, taking six total, Kellen Clemens (2006), Mark Sanchez (2009), Geno Smith (2013), Christian Hackenburg (2016), Sam Darnold (2018), and Zach Wilson (2021).

Remarkably, not a single one of those quarterbacks has panned out as a long-term starter for this team, even though three of them (Sanchez, Darnold, and Wilson) were selected in the top-5 picks overall. Wilson was their most recent attempt at solving the quarterback position and, only two years into his career, he already looks like a bust, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions in 22 career starts, playing so badly that the Jets didn’t even have confidence in him as their backup down the stretch last season. The Jets aren’t ready to completely give up on Wilson, but it was clear they did not want to go into next season with him as their primary starting option.

In desperate need of a quarterback this off-season, despite all of the capital they have committed to the position in recent years, the Jets set their sights on acquiring Packers quarterback and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, whose time in Green Bay seemed to be coming to a close. In fact, the Jets were so set on Rodgers that they seemed to ignore all other options, including retaining Mike White, who has probably been by default their best quarterback over the past two seasons (75.4 QB rating in seven starts).

It was a risky strategy to go all in on Rodgers, given that their fallback options if he didn’t pan out were signing backup caliber stopgaps or going back to Wilson, but it did result in the Jets getting Rodgers eventually, albeit after paying a steep price for a quarterback who no one else legitimately seemed to be interested in trading for, swapping first round picks this year (moving down from 13 to 15), trading away a second rounder this year, and giving up a conditional first next year with loose conditions that would still be a second round pick even if Rodgers gets hurt.

The common opinion seems to be that Rodgers can be the missing piece for a Jets team that finished 5th in defensive DVOA a year ago and only wound up with a final record of 7-10 because of horrendous quarterback play (75.0 QB rating, worst in the NFL), which led to the Jets finishing just 26th in offensive DVOA. However, that opinion seems to overlook a couple things. One of those, which I’ll get into more later, is that defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, meaning it’s much tougher to be a top level defense in back-to-back years than it is to do so on offense.

Being a top level defense requires 7, 8, 9 starters all playing at above average levels and, with free agency and injuries and general regression, it’s hard for that to happen in back-to-back years. The Jets didn’t lose much in free agency this off-season, but they had several players who had the best year of their career on defense in 2022, which they might not repeat again in 2023, and they will almost definitely have more injuries on defense than a year ago, when they had the fewest defensive adjusted games lost to injury in the league.

On top of that, there are legitimate concerns about what version of Aaron Rodgers the Jets are getting at this point. Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs as recently as 2020 and 2021 and he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league throughout his career, starting 223 games in 15 seasons as the starter in Green Bay and totaling 65.3% completion, 7.71 YPA, 475 touchdowns, and 105 interceptions over that stretch, while finishing above 80 on PFF eleven times and above 90 on PFF five times. However, he fell to 77.5 in PFF grade last season, his worst for a full season since 2015 and his second worst ever as a starter, while his 91.1 QB rating was his worst ever as a starter, a concern with Rodgers now heading into his age 40 season.

Even for elite quarterbacks like Rodgers, playing at a high level into your 40s isn’t common and, even if Rodgers doesn’t completely drop off this season, there’s a very good chance his best days are behind him at this point. On top of that, Rodgers’ contract is set to pay him over 108.8 million over the next two seasons and, while it’s structured in a way that significantly incentivizes Rodgers stick around for two seasons, he could decide in a year that he doesn’t care about the money and opt to retire, something he said he was close to doing this off-season, or he could continue declining and not be worth that high salary, which the Jets are essentially locked into unless Rodgers hangs them up after this season.

Overall, acquiring Rodgers is a risky move when you take into account his age, the decline he showed last season, his salary, and how close he said he was to retiring this off-season, but the Jets were so desperate at the quarterback position, despite all of the draft capital they have invested in the position in recent years, that they had they felt to get Rodgers to maximize their chances with a roster that is otherwise in good shape, even if their defense might not be quite as good as a year ago. Rodgers might not make this team quite the contender that many are expecting them to be, but he obviously gives them a much better chance of at least making the post-season and potentially winning a game or two once they make it, which is more than the Jets have done in over a decade.

With Rodgers being their only real addition at the quarterback position this off-season, that leaves Zach Wilson as the likely backup and, while his time on the bench could benefit him and he still has upside, the Jets would obviously be in a lot of trouble if Rodgers got hurt and they had to turn back to Wilson, whose only competition for the backup job is Tim Boyle, a 2018 undrafted free agent with just 106 career pass attempts and a career 54.5 QB rating. Rodgers’ addition obviously elevates the ceiling and the floor of this quarterback room, but his best days are probably behind him and the Jets would probably be in a lot of trouble if he happened to miss significant time with injury.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The biggest concern with Rodgers’ supporting cast is the Jets’ offensive line, which was a problem last season and wasn’t significantly addressed this off-season, with the Jets instead hoping for better health and better performance from the offensive linemen already on their roster. There’s a good chance the Jets do get more out of their existing offensive linemen, but this group ranked 29th in team pass blocking grade on PFF and 27th in team run blocking grade on PFF last year, so even if they are better than a year ago, they could still easily be a below average unit.

Alijah Vera-Tucker was the Jets’ best offensive lineman a year ago, one of just two offensive linemen to start a game for the Jets last season and finish above 60 on PFF, out of ten offensive linemen who saw starts for the Jets last season. Vera-Tucker finished with an impressive 71.8 PFF grade, while making starts at right guard, left tackle, and right tackle for an offensive line in flux a year ago, but injuries limited him to just seven starts total. This year, he should be healthier and is expected to return full-time to guard, where he made all 16 of his starts as a rookie in 2021 and received a 66.8 grade from PFF. The 14th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Vera-Tucker should remain at least an above average starter in his third season in the league in 2023 and has a chance to take another step forward and have his best season yet.

Mekhi Becton is also a former first round pick coming off of an injury plagued season, as the former 11th overall pick missed all of last season with injury. Becton also missed all but one game with injury in 2021, with the only extended experience of his career being the 13 starts he made at left tackle as a rookie in 2020. Becton received a 74.4 grade from PFF for his performance as a rookie and looked on his way to being an above average long-term starter, before the last two injury plagued seasons, so he could bounce back in 2023 if he’s healthy. However, even as a rookie he missed time with injury and he has a history of conditioning issues that have likely contributed to his injuries, which has caused Becton to fall out of favor with the Jets somewhat. He’s expected to start in 2023, but will be on a short leash and could easily get hurt again or prove to not be the same player he was as a rookie.

With Becton hurt, the Jets signed veteran Duane Brown to replace him at left tackle last off-season, but he fell to a 57.8 grade on PFF in 12 starts, after finishing above 70 in each of the previous 13 seasons, including seven finishes above 80. That drop off wasn’t that surprising considering his age and now Brown heads into his age 38 season, making him one of the oldest starters in the league at any position, so, while he may have some bounce back potential, there’s a good chance he continues struggling or even declines further.

With Brown aging and Becton coming off two lost years due to injury, offensive tackle was a big position of need going into the draft, but, in part due to swapping first round picks with the Packers this year and moving down from 13 to 15, the Jets were unable to get any of the top-4 offensive tackle prospects in this draft, with the last of them going 14th to the Steelers after a trade up. Instead, the Jets had to settle for Pittsburgh’s Carter Warren in the 4th round and, as a rookie, he isn’t a real insurance option for Brown or Becton.

Warren will compete for a reserve role as a rookie with 2022 4th round pick Max Mitchell, who had a 55.5 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie, veteran Billy Turner, who has mostly been a solid starter in 61 starts over the past five seasons, but who is now going into his age 32 season and coming off of an injury plagued 2022 campaign in which he had a 56.3 PFF grade in seven starts, and Yodny Cajuste, a 2019 3rd round pick who has made just five career starts, in large part due to injury. All of the Jets’ reserve tackle options are underwhelming insurance options behind Brown or Becton, who both could easily struggle and/or get hurt.

Left guard Laken Tomlinson is also coming off of a mediocre year, finishing with a 56.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he has some bounce back potential, finishing above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons with the 49ers prior to last season (80 total starts), including grades of 78.8 and 75.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, before signing with the Jets on a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season. Tomlinson’s age is a concern, going into his age 31 season, so his best days could easily be behind him and he could continue declining further, but he could also bounce back somewhat, even if he’s not quite as good as he was at his best again.

Center Connor McGovern was the other offensive lineman along with Vera-Tucker who received an above average grade from PFF last season, finishing with a 69.6 grade in 17 starts. That’s pretty par for the course for McGovern who has been a starter for the past five seasons (79 starts) with the Broncos and Jets and has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including two seasons over 70 in 2019 and 2021. Despite that, the Jets opted to use their 2nd round pick on Wisconsin center Joe Tippmann, with McGovern going into an age 30 contract year. McGovern could decline a little this year, but figures to keep his job this year barring a massive dropoff or a significant injury, leaving Tippmann on the bench, unable to make much of a rookie year impact.

The Jets also have veteran Wes Schweitzer as a reserve option on the interior of their offensive line. Schweitzer has made 60 starts in the past six seasons, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of those seasons, but one of those seasons below 60 was last year, when he finished 59.3 on 419 snaps (6 starts) and now he heads into his age 30 season, meaning he’s probably best as a reserve at this stage of his career, even if he’s an above average one who could probably fill in for a stretch if needed without a significant drop off. This offensive line should be better than last year, but that could be mostly by default and they are likely to remain a below average unit.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with the injuries the Jets had on the offensive line last season, the Jets’ offense was also dealt a big blow when rookie running back Breece Hall tore his ACL in the middle of a promising rookie season, ending his year after seven games. A second round pick in last year’s draft, Hall split time with incumbent lead back Michael Carter for the first three games of the season, when he had 34 touches to 41 for Carter, but Hall quickly proved to be the superior back and had 65 touches in his final three and a half games of the season before getting hurt, ending his year with 5.79 YPC on 80 carries and 2.00 yards per route run as a pass catcher. In his absence, the Jets were stuck giving touches to Carter, undrafted rookie Zonovan Knight, and mid-season acquisition James Robinson, who averaged 3.52 YPC, 3.53 YPC, and 2.93 YPC respectively.

With Hall set to return for 2023, there is a scenario where he can pick up where he left off and continue developing into one of the best all-around running backs in the league, even if he isn’t quite as efficient as a year ago, but we also didn’t see that big of a sample size from him last season, so we don’t know how he’ll hold up over a full season and the injury complicates things as, even if he does turn into one of the best running backs in the league long-term, he might not be at his best right away in his first year back. His return should benefit this offense and he has a lot of upside, but he could be significantly less efficient than a year ago and the Jets might limit his playing time early in the season to avoid wearing him out in his first year back.

Carter and Knight remain as reserve options and the Jets also added Pittsburgh’s Israel Abanikanda in the 5th round of this year’s draft, to give them another depth option at the position. Carter probably has the most upside of the bunch, despite his disappointing season last year, as the 2021 4th round pick did have a decent 4.35 YPC average on 147 carries as a rookie before struggling last season and he’s also shown decent pass catching ability, with 1.26 yards per route run in two seasons in the league.

Knight showed flashes as a rookie, but ultimately seemed overmatched as a lead back, unsurprising for a player who the league let go undrafted a year ago. He’ll probably end up as a reserve for most of his career, as will likely be the case for Abanikanda as well, just based on the track record of players selected in the late rounds. All of their reserve options would likely be a significant downgrade from Breece Hall, who has the upside to be one of the best feature backs in the league, but who is also still very inexperienced and coming off of a significant injury that could limit his abilities and his playing time early in the season. Hall’s upside elevates the overall grade of this position group significantly, but this position group has a pretty low floor too.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Jets also have another second year player with a huge upside, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and, unlike Hall, he played the full season and is not coming off of a major injury. In fact, he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, finishing the season with a 83/1103/4 slash line and a 1.85 yards per route run average, despite horrendous quarterback play. In four games played with Mike White, the Jets most competent quarterback last year, Wilson had 22 catches for 353 yards, good for 94 catches for 1500 yards over 17 games. Overall, Wilson finished as PFF’s 9th ranked wide receiver overall with a 85.9 receiving grade and, going into his second season in the league, with an obvious upgrade under center, Wilson could easily finish among the league’s leaders in receiving yards and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect his production to take a step forward from the already impressive season he had a year ago.

In addition to adding Aaron Rodgers from the Packers, the Jets also signed a pair of former Packers wide receivers, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, likely at least partially in an effort to convince Rodgers to be willing to play for them, rather than opting to retire. Cobb was signed on a cheap 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and will only be a situational reserve, as he’s going into his age 33 season and hasn’t exceeded 400 snaps played in a season since 2020, although he’s still averaged 1.61 yards per route run over the three seasons since (1.68 yards per route run in his 12-year career). However, Lazard got a significant contract, paying him 44 million over the next 4 years, which seems a little steep for a player of his caliber.

Lazard finished last season as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, but only took his 100 targets for a 60/788/6 slash line and 1.61 yards per route run, middling numbers for a wide receiver and not the kind of numbers that would suggest he’s worth what the Jets are paying him, especially when you consider that last season was his career high in receiving yards and that his career yards per route run average is just 1.52. The Jets are likely paying a premium to a preferred Rodgers target to ensure Rodgers would be willing to play for them. Lazard is not a bad wide receiver and his familiarity with Rodgers is a benefit, but he won’t be his primary target anymore with Garrett Wilson on this team and, as a result, I would expect Lazard’s numbers to dip below his numbers from last season.

The Packers also added ex-Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman in free agency, but his 1-year, 4.5 million dollar contract also suggests he’ll be more of a situational reserve than anything. Hardman was a second round pick by the Chiefs in 2019 and had some flashes of potential in his four seasons in Kansas City, but he only played an average of 474 snaps per season with an average 38/522/4 slash line per season and a 1.65 yards per route run average, despite playing with Patrick Mahomes under center. Hardman is only going into his age 25 season and might still have the potential to become more than he is now, but it’s also very possible he just remains a decent rotational receiver.

With Lazard, Cobb, and Hardman being added, the Jets had to move on from some receivers this off-season and they did so by releasing Braxton Berrios (296 snaps) to save 5.5 million and trading Elijah Moore (729 snaps) to the Browns for the equivalent of a third round pick in draft capital in a pick swap, while Denzel Mims (269 snaps) seems unlikely to make the final roster, after three mediocre seasons with the Jets since being a second round pick in 2020. One wide receiver they could have moved on from and chose not to was Corey Davis, even publicly announcing that Davis would be back for the final year of his contract, despite his 10.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary.

Davis came to the Jets with a lot of potential on a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, a former #5 overall pick in his prime who had averaged 1.95 yards per route run over his previous three seasons in Tennessee before joining the Jets, only falling short of surpassing 1,000 yards because he had injuries (8 games missed in 4 seasons with the Titans) and played on a run heavy Titans team. With the Jets, Davis has had the opportunity for a bigger role in the passing game than he did in Tennessee, but injuries have become an even bigger problem (12 games missed in the past two seasons) and poor quarterback play has limited him to just 1.52 yards per route run over the past two seasons combined.

Davis gets an upgrade at quarterback this year though and, still only going into his age 28 season, he could still have potential if he can stay healthy. This is a crowded receiving corps and he probably won’t have a huge role as a complementary receiver behind Garrett Wilson, but the salary that the Jets opted to keep him in spite of is pretty high, which suggests he should at least be one of their top-3 receivers with Wilson and Lazard, with Hardman and Cobb serving as depth options behind them and Denzel Mims likely being left out of a deep and talented position group.

With a thinner receiving corps a year ago, tight end Tyler Conklin actually finished second on the team with 87 targets last season, but he was pretty inefficient with a 58/552/3 slash line (6.34 yards per target) and a 1.13 yards per route run average, in line with his career average of 1.14 in five seasons in the league. Conklin figures to remain the starter and primary receiving option at tight end, in the second year of a 3-year, 20.25 million dollar deal, but I wouldn’t expect him to be as involved in the offense as he was a year ago, with a much better and deeper group at wide receiver.

The Jets also have another veteran tight end CJ Uzomah, who they also signed to a significant contract last off-season, bringing him over from the Bengals on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal. Despite his salary, which is actually even higher than Conklin’s, Uzomah was mostly a blocker in his first season with the Jets, holding up pretty well in that aspect of the game, but seeing just 27 targets and finishing with 1.03 yards per route run, in line with his career average of 1.02 in eight seasons in the league. Now going into his age 30 season, Uzomah is what he is at this stage of his career and he could easily start to decline. He’s not a bad #2 tight end, but he won’t have much of a role in this offense, in a receiving corps that is much deeper at wide receiver than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Jets had one of the best defenses in the league last season, ranking 5th in defensive DVOA. That was actually a huge improvement over the year before, as the Jets finished the 2021 season dead last in DVOA. The Jets were able to improve in a hurry because they were healthier, with the fewest defensive adjusted games lost in NFL, after having the most in 2021, and because they made significant additions in free agency and the draft. However, defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and teams that make big leaps from one year to another especially tend to regress at least somewhat the following season, which is a concern going into this season.

The Jets also almost definitely will have more injuries on defense than a year ago and, while they didn’t lose a lot in terms of key players from a year ago, they still did lose some, while other players may fail to repeat last season’s performance. The position where the Jets lost the most this off-season was the interior defender position, where they lost Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd, who had 73.1 and 68.9 PFF grades on snap counts of 558 and 416 respectively last season, especially playing well as interior pass rushers, with a combined 8.3% pressure rate between them. The Jets added veteran Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods in free agency as replacements, but they are likely to be downgrades.

Jefferson has a 9.5% pressure rate for his career, but that’s because he has lined up on the edge frequently in his career, which is an easier spot to pressure the quarterback from and his run defense has fallen off significantly from earlier in his career, leading him to finish below 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons. Now heading into his age 30 season, I would expect him to continue being a liability overall, especially if he has to line up on the interior full-time in pass rush situations, where he has not been as effective in his career.

Woods, on the other hand, is a base package run stuffer who doesn’t get much pass rush, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense each of the past 12 seasons, but only managing a 4.7% pressure rate for his career. Woods’ run defense grade has been above 75 in three of the past five seasons, but he’s averaged just 477 snaps per season as a part-time player over those five seasons and he now heads into his age 36 season and could easily drop off significantly, even if he hasn’t really shown any signs of decline yet. Woods and Jefferson aren’t bad situational players, but they’re downgrades from Rankins and Shepherd, who were better all-around players.

Solomon Thomas is still on the team, but he was the Jets’ worst interior defender who had a significant role last season, receiving a 49.9 grade from PFF on 374 snaps, and he will almost definitely struggle in a similar role again this season. Thomas was the 3rd overall pick by the 49ers in 2017, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including three straight seasons under 50, while averaging a total of 457 snaps played per season in his career. He won’t have a huge role, but figures to remain a liability even in a limited role. Fortunately, the Jets also still have their top interior defender from a year ago, Quinnen Williams, who was one of the best players in the league at his position, finishing 4th among interior defenders on PFF with a 90.1 overall grade, playing the run at a high level, but also adding 12 sacks, 15 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

It was the best year of Williams’ career, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as Williams entered the league with immense talent as the 3rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and flashed that talent right away with a 67.4 PFF grade on 512 snaps as a rookie, before taking a step forward in year two, with a 81.4 PFF grade on 587 snaps. A foot injury slowed Williams for much of 2021, as he finished with a 64.4 PFF grade on 613 snaps, but that grade was 71.4 from week 11 through the end of the season, as he got healthier as the season went on, and it wasn’t a surprise at all that he stayed healthy and had a career best year in his fourth season in the league in 2022.

Williams might not be quite as good in 2023 as he was a year ago just because it’s really hard to have that kind of season in back-to-back years and even only a little bit of a regression from Williams could have a noticeable effect on this defense, but Williams is still only in his age 26 season and, even if he isn’t quite as good every season as he was a year ago, he should remain one of the best players at his position for years to come, barring injury. He significantly elevates a position group that is underwhelming other than him.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position was arguably the Jets’ biggest position of strength a year ago. Given that, it was very surprising to see them using the first round pick, 15th overall, on Iowa State edge defender Will McDonald. The speculation was that the Jets, who took their full time on the clock, panicked when all of the top-4 offensive tackles were unexpectedly off the board by their pick and selected a player they liked, but who didn’t fit what they needed. Even if that’s not true and McDonald was their top choice all along, it’s hard to see how he has a path to playing an impactful role early in his career.

The Jets added edge defenders Jermaine Johnson and Micheal Clemons in the 1st and 4th round of last year’s draft and both showed potential as rookies with Johnson posting a 71.7 PFF grade on 312 snaps and Clemons posting a 78.7 grade on 311 snaps, suggesting they deserve bigger roles in year two. On top of that, the Jets also still have Bryce Huff, who only played 191 snaps last season, but excelled with a 90.4 PFF grade, posting 3.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a ridiculous 20.8% pressure rate, despite his limited role, leading to the Jets keeping him on a 2nd round tender as a restricted free agent this off-season, paying him 4.304 million in the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, which would also suggest he should have a bigger role this season.

However, with McDonald coming in, Huff could find himself getting traded, given that he’s in the last year of his deal and doesn’t have an obvious role in a very deep position group, playing a limited role a year ago even before the addition of another first round pick to the group. Huff went undrafted in 2020 and posted middling grades in his first two seasons in the league, 58.5 on 296 snaps in 2020 and 60.7 on 338 snaps in 2021, so the Jets might be selling high by trading him now and, if he can return a significant draft asset to the Jets, that would probably be worth more to them than having Huff around as a somewhat expensive insurance option and deep reserve for another year, before losing him for nothing in free agency next off-season.

In addition to Johnson, Clemons, McDonald, and Huff, starters Carl Lawson (663 snaps) and John Franklin-Myers (643 snaps) are also still around, at a very deep position group, so, even if Will McDonald pans out long-term, it’s hard to see how he can have much impact early in his career on this already high level group. Lawson and Franklin-Myers are also coming off impressive seasons as the starters and figure to remain in those roles, even with as much talent as the Jets have behind them on the depth chart.

Lawson struggled against the run, but was an effective pass rusher with 7 sacks, 17 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, providing a boost to the Jets after missing all of 2021 with injury, his first year with the Jets after signing a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. Last year’s performance was pretty par for the course from Lawson, as he’s consistently been mediocre against the run in his career, but has 27 sacks, 77 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 68 career games. Lawson is still only in his age 28 season, so I would expect more of the same from him this season, although it’s worth noting that he has a history of durability issues, even beyond his 2021 injury, as he has missed 30 games total in six seasons in the league.

Franklin-Myers was also an effective pass rusher last season, adding 6 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate, but, unlike Lawson, he also played the run at a high level, finishing with grades above 75 on PFF both as a pass rusher and a run stuffer and an overall PFF grade of 82.6. For Franklin-Myers, it was actually his second season in a row over 80, finishing with a 80.3 grade on 717 snaps in 2021, again finishing above 75 as a run defender and adding 6 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

Prior to 2021, Franklin-Myers was not as good of a run defender, but he still finished with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in 2020, leading to him having an overall 71.5 grade on PFF, despite his struggles in run defense. His run defense seems to have permanently turned a corner now after two straight strong seasons in that aspect, while his pass rush ability should remain as impressive in 2023 as it’s been for the past three seasons, still in his prime in his age 27 season.

Franklin-Myers is also a versatile player who lines up both on the edge and on the interior in obvious passing situations and, with the Jets having as much depth as they have on the edge, they could line Franklin-Myers up on the interior even more this season, to help mask their lack of depth at that position behind Quinnen Williams. Lawson and Franklin-Myers figure to remain the starters on the edge, even with this year’s first round pick Will McDonald, pair of promising second year players Jermaine Johnson and Micheal Clemons, and potential trade bait Bryce Huff behind them on the depth chart, in a very deep and talented position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

One player who might have a hard time repeating last season’s performance is linebacker CJ Mosley, who played all but 24 snaps as an every down player and received a 69.8 grade from PFF. Mosley has had other above average seasons as an every down linebacker in his career, surpassing 65 on PFF in five straight seasons with the Ravens to begin his career from 2014-2018, with four seasons over 70, while playing an average of 64.2 snaps per game and 989 snaps per season.

Mosley’s performance with the Ravens led to the Jets giving him a 5-year, 85 million dollar deal four off-seasons ago at the end of Mosley’s rookie deal that still makes him the 5th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league, but, aside from last year, Mosley has been a disappointment since joining the Jets, missing but all two games with injury in 2019, opting out in 2020, and then performing disastrously in his first season back in 2021, when he had a 42.0 PFF grade on 1,098 snaps, before finally bouncing back in 2022. It’s possible Mosley continues his solid play into this season, but he’s four seasons removed from being a consistently above average every down option and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it’s very possible he regresses at least somewhat in 2023.

This linebacking corps could also be hurt by the loss of veteran Kwon Alexander this off-season, after he proved to be a great value on a one-year prove it deal in 2022, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade on 558 snaps, part of why this defense was able to improve as much as it did from 2021 to 2022. With Alexander gone and no real replacement added, the Jets will rely more on Quincy Williams (792 snaps) as an every down player, after giving him a 3-year, 18 million dollar extension to stick around this off-season as a free agent.

Williams was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and has started 36 of 49 games played in his career, but that contract seems a little rich, as the below average 55.2 PFF grade Williams received last season was actually the best season grade of his career, as he’s mostly struggled throughout his four seasons in the league. Likely to play the largest snap count of his career in 2023 with Kwon Alexander gone, Williams could prove to be a big liability.

The Jets also have very little depth behind Mosley and Williams if something happens to either one. They have Jamien Sherwood and Hamsah Nasirildeen, who were 5th and 6th round picks in 2021, but they’ve played just 164 snaps and 67 snaps respectively on defense in their careers and have shown very little, so they would likely struggle if forced into significant action. The Jets also added Western Michigan linebacker Zaire Barnes in the 6th round of this year’s draft, but he also would likely struggle in a big role.

The Jets run a 4-3 defense, which means in base packages one of the three aforementioned linebackers are going to have to play alongside Mosley and Williams, so one of them will at least have somewhat of a role even if Mosley and Williams stay healthy. Even in a small, situational role, whoever wins the job will likely be at least somewhat of a liability. With Williams being an underwhelming every down option, Mosley going into his age 31 season with a history of inconsistency, and no proven depth behind them, this position group is a rare weakness on this defense.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Probably the biggest reason for the Jets’ defensive improvement last season was the addition of cornerback Ahmad Gardner with the 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Despite being only a rookie, Gardner was legitimately one of the top few cornerbacks in the league last season, ranking #1 among cornerbacks an 87.9 PFF grade in 17 starts, en route to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Gardner might not be quite as good as that every season, but he should remain one of the best players in the league at his position in 2023, even if he isn’t quite as good as a year ago, and he looks very likely to remain one of the top players in the league at his position for years to come.

The Jets also added veteran DJ Reed in free agency last off-season, signing the former Seahawk to a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal to start opposite Gardner and he was a big part of their defensive turnaround as well, finishing with a 72.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. Reed had only been a starter for a year and a half prior to joining the Jets last off-season, but he received a 73.1 PFF grade as a half season starter in 2020 and a 78.6 PFF grade as a full season starter in 2021 and, now without another above average season as a full season starter under his belt, he seems very likely to repeat that performance again in 2023, still only in his age 27 season.

On top of adding Gardner and Reed, the Jets also got a better season from Michael Carter, who posted a 74.3 PFF grade on 732 snaps as the third cornerback and primary slot cornerback, after the 2021 5th round pick finished with a mediocre 53.7 PFF grade on 777 snaps as a rookie. Carter is a one-year wonder and could regress a little bit to his rookie year form in 2023, but he could also keep improving, still only going into his third season in the league.

The Jets also have Bryce Hall as an insurance option. The 2020 5th round pick wasn’t bad with a 63.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2021, after a 59.9 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, but with the Jets being significantly improved at the position and staying healthy in 2022, Hall only played 15 snaps as a deep reserve. If more injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart, Hall figures to have a bigger role in 2023 and he’s shown he can handle a bigger role, even if he’ll almost definitely be a downgrade from any of the Jets top-3 cornerbacks.

Safety Jordan Whitehead was also added as a free agent last off-season, signing a 2-year, 14.5 million dollar deal to come over from the Buccaneers, and his addition was a benefit to this secondary as well, posting a 66.1 PFF grade in 17 starts. That’s in line with how Whitehead played with the Buccaneers, surpassing 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in Tampa Bay, while making 55 starts, including a career best 74.9 PFF grade in 14 starts in his contract year in 2021. Whitehead wasn’t quite as good as that in 2022, but he was still a solid starter and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2023 performance was closer to his 2021 performance than his 2022 performance, especially since he’s still only in his early prime in his age 26 season.

The only starter who doesn’t return in this secondary from a year ago is veteran safety LaMarcus Joyner, but he had just a 57.0 PFF grade on 872 snaps and won’t be missed that much. In fact, the Jets have a good chance to get upgraded play at Joyner’s old position in his absence. The Jets first traded for Ravens safety Chuck Clark to replace Joyner, but after Clark suffered a season ending injury in the off-season, the Jets then signed another veteran Adrian Amos in free agency, giving him a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal.

Amos finished last season with a 53.4 PFF grade in 17 starts for the Packers and is now going into his age 30 season, but he’s a worthwhile flier on a cheap one-year deal because, prior to last season, Amos had finished above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons (89 total starts), including three seasons over 80. Given his age, Amos’ best days are probably behind him, but he’s also not totally over the hill yet and could easily bounce back from a career worst year, even if he doesn’t end up returning to his pre-2022 form. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on LaMarcus Joyner and, worst case scenario, I don’t expect him to be a downgrade.

Ashtyn Davis will probably be the Jets’ third safety and top reserve at the position and the 2020 3rd round pick made 16 starts across his first two seasons in the league in 2020 and 2021, but he was mediocre in both seasons and spent much of last year behind undrafted free agent Tony Adams on the depth chart, with Davis playing just 13 defensive snaps total, as opposed to 118 for Adams. Adams is still inexperienced, but it won’t be a surprise if he continues beating out Davis and goes into 2023 as the Jets’ top reserve safety. Whoever wins the top backup safety job would likely be a noticeable downgrade if either of their starting safeties got hurt, but they’re not bad depth to have. The Jets’ secondary should remain one of the better secondaries in the league, though it’s worth noting the Jets are unlikely to have the same injury luck as they had a year ago, when their top three cornerbacks and their top safety all made all 17 starts.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Jets went 7-10 last year with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL, led by one of the best defenses in the NFL. This off-season, they added Aaron Rodgers, which undoubtedly gives them a significant upgrade under center, as a result, will make this a significantly better team, but I am not sure this team is quite the contender that some are expecting them to be. Rodgers is coming off of one of the worst seasons of his career as a starter and, while he was still better than a lot of quarterbacks even at his worst, he’s now going into his age 40 season and could continue declining.

Meanwhile, things are unlikely to go as smoothly on defense this year as they did last year, when they had next to no injuries and had several players who had seasons they might not repeat in 2023. As a result, the Jets’ defense seems likely to regress even somewhat as a result, as is often the case with top defenses from year-to-year, given how much more inconsistent defensive performance tends to be every year, as compared to offensive performance. This should at least be a playoff team, barring catastrophe, but the AFC is loaded and the Jets still seem like they are still behind the top few teams in the conference. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC East

Los Angeles Chargers 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 27, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

The Chargers set themselves up for the foreseeable future at the quarterback position when they selected Justin Herbert 6th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Herbert was considered sort of a boom or bust prospect, but he made an immediate impact as a rookie, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, finishing 16th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 79.9 grade. Herbert then followed that up in 2021 by completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while finishing 3rd among quarterbacks on PFF with a 90.0 grade.

With Herbert on a cheap rookie contract, the Chargers decided to be aggressive last off-season to try to maximize their chances of winning while Herbert is still cheap, bringing in, among others, top cornerback JC Jackson and top edge defender Khalil Mack. The Chargers finished the 2021 season ranked 4th in offensive DVOA, but just 26th in defensive DVOA and the upgrades they made on defense seemed to improve them drastically, which seemed to make the Chargers contenders in 2022, assuming their offense continued to perform at a high level.

Unfortunately for the Chargers, that’s not what happened. Their defense did improve, finishing 16th in defensive DVOA, but that’s a bit of a disappointment considering the additions they made on defense last off-season and their offense was even more disappointing, falling to 19th in offensive DVOA. Overall, the Chargers finished 18th in DVOA and, while they did make the post-season at 10-7, they were not quite as good as their final record suggested and they lost in their first post-season game, blowing a big lead to the Jaguars.

The biggest reason for their disappointment was injuries. The Chargers only were a middle of the pack team in terms of adjusted games lost last season, with the 15th fewest in the league, but those injuries disproportionately affected some of their most important players, so the overall amount of games they lost to injury is a little misleading, especially when you consider that Herbert didn’t miss any games with injury, but clearly was not himself for an extended period of time after suffering a rib injury late in week 2. Over the next 5 games, Herbert completed just 63.7% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while receiving a total grade from PFF of 66.2, as opposed to 70.4% completion, 7.07 YPA, 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 81.5 PFF grade in his other 12 games.

Herbert hasn’t gotten hurt that much since entering the league, actually never missing a start due to injury, so he has a good chance to bounce back and continue being one of the better quarterbacks in the league in 2023, still only in his age 25 season. If he does miss time though, the Chargers would be in a lot of trouble, with their only reserve options being 2019 5th round pick Easton Stick, who has just one career attempt, as well as 7th round rookie Max Duggan, both of whom would obviously be huge downgrades from Herbert if forced into action. Herbert’s upside gives the Chargers one of the better quarterback situations in the league and he doesn’t have much of a history of injuries, but they would be in a lot of trouble if Herbert suffered an injury that kept him out of the lineup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

With the Chargers still having much of their same supporting cast and core from a year ago, if they can be healthier this season, or at least if their injuries don’t disproportionately keep out their best players again, the Chargers could end up being the Super Bowl contenders they were expected to be a year ago. The Chargers are already 73.9 million over next year’s cap though, as a result of their aggressive strategy in recent off-seasons, even before taking into account a Justin Herbert extension, which could increase his cap number, so this season might be the Chargers’ last really good chance to be true contenders for the short-term future, as they will almost definitely have to cut or re-sign some key players to get under the cap, even if they continue being aggressive borrowing future cap space.

One of those players who will likely be gone in a year is wide receiver Keenan Allen, who was a cap casualty or trade candidate this off-season, owed 16.5 million non-guaranteed for his age 31 season in 2022, after a 2021 season in which he was one of the Chargers’ key players who missed significant time with injury, limited to 515 snaps in 10 games. Allen was likely only retained because the Chargers didn’t feel confident in their other options, with Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter being the ones to take over most of Allen’s playing time and averaging just 1.24 yards per route run and 1.08 yards per route run respectively in his absence, a significant drop off from Allen, who averaged 2.18 yards per route run last season and who has averaged 2.07 yards per route run for his career.

The Chargers probably feel more confident about a long-term replacement for Allen now though, after using their first round pick on TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Even with Allen and fellow starter Mike Williams on the team, Johnson figures to still have a significant rookie year role. Allen figures to be healthier this season, but his age is becoming a concern, with 31-year-old wide receivers being 35.7% less likely to surpass 1000 yards in a season than 29-year-old wide receivers, a steep drop off for a short period of time.

Williams also missed four games with injury last season, as well as their playoff loss, but he still averaged 1.93 yards per route run when on the field, in line with his 1.81 yards per route run average from the previous four seasons combined, and, unlike Allen, he is still on the right side of 30, going into his age 29 season, so I would expect more of the same from him this year, with probably fewer games missed due to injury (three games missed in his previous four seasons prior to last season).

DeAndre Carter played 698 snaps last season at wide receiver for the Chargers and won’t be back, but he struggled with the opportunity he got and, even without him, the Chargers still have great depth at the wide receiver position behind their top-3. Josh Palmer returns and, while the Chargers clearly don’t trust him as a long-term Keenan Allen replacement, as evidenced by the Johnston selection, Palmer is still a 2021 3rd round pick who wasn’t horrible last season even though he played close to a starter’s snap count, playing 898 snaps on the season, after being decent on 457 snaps as a rookie as well. The Chargers also used a 4th round pick on another TCU wide receiver, Derius Davis, to give them even more wide receiver depth. The Chargers will be much better prepared for a wide receiver injury this season and they should get healthier seasons out of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams as well.

Gerald Everett was the Chargers starting tight end last season, playing 667 snaps, averaging 1.24 yards per route run, and finishing with an overall grade of 67.1 on PFF, decent, but unspectacular. He could see a smaller role this season though, in the second season of a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, as the Chargers probably didn’t want to play him as much as they did a year ago, but their other pass catching tight end option Donald Parham missed 11 games with injury. Parham flashed a lot of potential with a 2.06 yards per route run average in limited action last season, after the 2019 undrafted free agent averaged 1.31 yards per route run in limited action in his career prior to last season, so he, if healthy, should continue taking away at least some routes from Everett like he did down the stretch last season, even if Parham is still relatively inexperienced and a projection to a larger role.

The Chargers also have Tre McKitty as a blocking tight end option, which is good because both Everett and Parham struggled in that aspect. A 2021 3rd round pick, McKitty has only averaged 0.44 yards per route run in his career, but is a solid blocker and theoretically could have untapped upside as a pass catcher, still only going into his third season in the league. He’s unlikely to have a big pass catching role though, behind Everett and Parham in the pecking order for targets at tight end and on a team with one of the most talented groups of wide receivers in the league.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Running back Austin Ekeler was also a huge part of this passing game a year ago, actually leading the team with 127 targets, 19th most in the NFL among all positions, on one of the pass heaviest teams in the league, with the Chargers ranking 2nd in the NFL with 711 pass attempts. The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator this year with Kellen Moore coming in, but the Chargers figure to remain pass heavy and Ekeler figures to remain a big part of the passing game, even if their pass attempts go down slightly and Ekeler’s target share drops with Allen and Williams likely playing more and Quentin Johnston being added.

Ekeler wasn’t that efficient with those targets, finishing with a 107/722/5 slash line, a 5.69 yards per target average, but running backs tend not to be efficient targets and Ekeler’s 1.63 yards per route run average was 6th in the NFL among running backs. That average is actually below his 1.95 career yards per route run average and last season was his 5th finish above 80 on PFF in six seasons in the league. Ekeler also was a huge part of this running game, leading the team with 204 carries for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns (4.49 YPC).

The 2017 undrafted free agent wasn’t trusted with a huge running role early in his career, not surpassing 200 carries in a season until 2021, but he also impressed in that 2021 season with 4.42 YPC and 12 touchdowns, and he has an impressive 4.60 YPC average on 811 carries in his career. Ekeler should remain in a similar role in 2023. He’s going into his age 28 season though, which is around when running backs tend to decline, with running backs being 40.5% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards rushing in their age 29 season, as opposed to their age 27 season, a big dropoff for a short timespan. Ekeler should maintain his feature back role from the past two seasons and, barring injury, is a strong candidate for 200+ carries and 70+ catches, but he might not be quite as efficient as he has been in his career and he might be a little bit more susceptible to injury as he ages.

Joshua Kelley was second on this team among running backs with 69 carries last season and he had a decent 4.16 YPC average, but he has just a 3.49 YPC average on 213 carries in his career, since being selected in the 4th round in 2020, as well as just a 0.84 yards per route run average for his career. The Chargers selected Isaiah Spiller in the 4th round of last year’s draft and, while he played just 53 snaps as a rookie, it’s possible he could take a step forward in year two and earn the #2 job, in which he could be an upgrade on Kelley. That’s not a guarantee though and this backfield would be in a lot of trouble if Ekeler got hurt, especially in the passing game, but, as long as Ekeler is healthy and doesn’t decline in a big way, he elevates this running back group significantly by himself.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Along with their top-2 wide receivers both missing significant time last season, the Chargers also had significant injuries on the offensive line, most notably the loss of left tackle Rashawn Slater for the year after 175 snaps in three games. His replacement Jamaree Salyer actually wasn’t bad, posting a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts, despite being only a 6th round rookie, but he was still a big downgrade from Slater, who went 13th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, finished 9th among offensive tackles on PFF in 83.6 starts as a rookie, and then was on his way to a similar season in 2022, with a 84.0 PFF grade, before he got hurt.

Returning for his third season in the league in 2023, Slater should pick up right where he left off and his return will allow Salyer to play another position, most likely right guard, where he would replace free agent departure Matt Feiler, whose disappointing 53.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season was part of the reason why the Chargers were not as good as expected on offense, a year after he finished with a 74.0 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2021. Salyer wasn’t a high pick and might not have a high upside, but he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter at his new position and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Feiler.

Incumbent right tackle Trey Pipkins wasn’t that good last season, with a 59.2 PFF grade in 14 starts, but the Chargers re-signed the 2019 3rd round pick to a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal this off-season to keep him off the open market, suggesting he’ll keep his job at right tackle and Salyer will move to guard. Pipkins has been a little better in the past, but he has just 24 career starts and has finished in the 50s and 60s on PFF in all four seasons in the league and, going into his age 27 season, I would expect him to remain a marginal starter at best.

If Salyer moves to right tackle, on the other hand, the Chargers’ options at right guard would be very limited, with their top options being 5th round rookie Jordan McFadden, 2021 5th round pick Brenden Jaimes, who has played just 23 offensive snaps in his career, and veteran journeyman backup Will Clapp, a 7th round pick in 2018 who has never surpassed 333 snaps in a season or finished above 60 on PFF. If none of them get into the starting lineup, they will be the Chargers top reserves along with likely swing tackle Foster Sarell, a 2021 undrafted free agent who struggled mightily with a 44.6 PFF grade on the first 250 snaps of his career last season and who will almost definitely be an underwhelming option, even as a reserve. Salyer starting at right guard to begin the season makes the most sense, though the Chargers do have some options, even if they’re not good ones.

Center Corey Linsley also missed some time last season, limited to 858 snaps in 14 games, and he was a big loss when he was out, as he finished with a 74.2 PFF grade when healthy. That’s nothing new for Linsley, who has finished above 70 on PFF seven times in nine seasons in the league, but age is becoming a concern, as he now heads into his age 32 season. Even if he declines in 2023, he should remain at least a solid starter, but his best days could easily be behind him and it would hurt this offensive line if he wasn’t his usual self.

Left guard Zion Johnson didn’t miss any time last season, starting all 17 games, but he was a bit of a disappointment, after being selected 17th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Johnson’s 64.8 PFF grade wasn’t bad, but you expect more out of guards taken in the first round than most other positions, as the position value usually isn’t high enough for an interior offensive lineman to go in the first round unless he’s a really good prospect. Johnson did get better as the season went on though, receiving a 70.8 PFF grade in his final seven starts, 10th among eligible guards over that stretch, after receiving a 59.4 PFF grade in first 10 starts, and he could easily continue that into his second season in the league or even improve further. It’s not a guarantee, but he could easily end up as an above average starter. This should be a solid offensive line, with Rashawn Slater’s return from injury being a big deal.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, acquiring Khalil Mack was arguably the biggest move the Chargers made in an aggressive off-season last year, trading away the 48th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to acquire Mack and the 63.9 million that was remaining on his contract from the Bears. Mack was supposed to form a dominant edge defender duo with Joey Bosa, but he ended up mostly being a replacement for Bosa, who was another key injured player for this team in 2022, limited to just 165 snaps in 5 games. In Bosa’s absence, expected #3 edge defender Kyle Van Noy played 733 snaps as the primary edge defender opposite Mack and he was middling at best, with a 63.4 PFF grade and 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

Mack mostly held up his end of the deal, playing 860 snaps and finishing with 8 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate, but his overall 71.1 PFF grade was the worst of his 9-year career and he was even worse down the stretch with a 53.9 grade from week 10 on, after a grade of 85.4 through week 9, a concern considering Mack is now heading into his age 32 season in 2023. Mack also had just a 73.0 grade on 315 snaps in an injury plagued 2021 season in his final season in Chicago, after exceeding 86 on PFF in each of his first seven seasons in the league. Mack’s best days are almost definitely behind him at this point and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined further, but he’s not totally over the hill, so he could have at least a little bit of bounce back potential as well and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain an above average edge defender.

Bosa was good last season when he got on the field too, receiving a 85.8 PFF grade and totaling 2.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate. That’s pretty par for the course for Bosa, who has finished above 85 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, playing the run well, but especially excelling as a pass rusher with 60.5 sacks, 78 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate in 84 career games, but, unfortunately, injuries have also been par for the course for him, as he has missed 30 games in his career, with at least one game missed in five of seven seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 28 season and should remain a highly effective player in 2023, but he could easily miss more time, even if it’s unlikely to be as much as a year ago, which is obviously a big boost for this defense.

The Chargers also added Tuli Tuipulotu in the 2nd round of the draft. He will replace departed veteran Kyle Van Noy as the #3 edge defender, likely giving them better insurance in case of another Bosa injury, as well as giving them a potential long-term replacement for the aging and expensive Mack, who the soon to be cap strapped Chargers might not bring back at his 23.25 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024.

Tuipulotu being added and Bosa returning also could give Mack more of a rest than he got last season (50.6 snaps per game), which could in turn allow him to be more effective as he ages than he otherwise would have. Tuipulotu probably won’t have a huge impact as a rookie, but the Chargers probably won’t need him to behind Mack and Bosa, who are one of the best edge defender duos in the league, even with Mack aging and Bosa being injury-prone.

The Chargers also still have 2021 4th round pick Chris Rumph, who struggled on 300 snaps last season, mostly in place of an injured Bosa, finishing with a 48.7 PFF grade. Rumph was better as a rookie, but only on 176 snaps and, while he could still have upside, he’s no guarantee to take a step forward in year three. He’ll probably still see action for this team, but, fortunately, he probably won’t be needed as more than a deep reserve role this season, in a talented position group overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Chargers also made a lesser, but still significant addition at the interior defender position last off-season, signing Sebastian Joseph-Day to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal to come over from the Rams. That didn’t work out as well though, as Joseph-Day had a mediocre year with a 51.6 PFF grade on 702 snaps, struggling against the run and as a pass rusher (4.8%). Joseph-Day was an above average run defender with the Rams, who selected him in the 6th round in 2018, but he had just a 5.9% pass rush rate and never played more than 481 snaps in a season in four seasons with the Rams.

Those low snap counts were in part because Joseph-Day missed seven games in his final season with the Rams in 2021, as he was a starter tat season and would have played a lot more snaps if he had been healthy, after being a reserve to that point in his career, but he was still a risky signing given how inexperienced he was and so far the signing has not paid off. He might have a little bounce back potential in 2023, but I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than a solid base package run stopper at his best, playing the nose tackle position in this defense at 6-4 310.

With Joseph-Day struggling, another, much cheaper free agent signing was actually their best interior defender a year ago, as Morgan Fox only received 7.25 million on a 2-year deal, but played 575 snaps and received a 62.7 overall grade from PFF. He struggled against the run, but excelled as a pass rusher with 6.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate. That’s in line with how he’s played throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all five seasons in his career in which he’s seen significant action, but totaling 18.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate over that stretch.

Fox has mostly been a part-time player in his career, playing an average of 445 snaps per season and 27.1 snaps per game while playing all 82 games over those past five seasons, but he’s proven himself on snap counts of 561 and 575 over the past two seasons and is still only in his age 29 season, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, good pass rush, but poor run defense, on a similar snap count, most playing in sub packages.

Austin Johnson was on his way to a big snap count last season too, playing 287 snaps in 8 games (610 over a 17-game season), before getting hurt. Johnson played 665 snaps in 2021 with the Giants, but he struggled with a 58.3 PFF grade, as he did in 2022, when he had a 55.9 PFF grade. Johnson was better on smaller snap counts earlier in his career and could benefit from playing a smaller role in 2023, but, either way, he shouldn’t be guaranteed to maintain his same role from a year ago. Unfortunately though, the Chargers don’t have many better options.

Otito Ogbonnia was a 5th round pick a year ago, but struggled mightily on 138 snaps and, even if he can take a step forward in year two, he has a long way to go to even being a decent rotational player. The Chargers also used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Boise State’s Scott Matlock, but he would likely struggle in a big rookie year role. Veteran Nick Williams was signed in free agency, but he’s going into his age 33 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in all but two of nine seasons in the league, including a 59.9 PFF grade on 227 snaps last season. Even though he’d be a mediocre one, Austin Johnson seems like their best option to play a significant role along with Joseph-Day and Fox. It’s an underwhelming group overall, but Fox can at least pressure the quarterback.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Chargers didn’t make many big additions this off-season, but they did sign linebacker Eric Kendricks to a 2-year, 13.25 million dollar deal, after Kendricks was released by the Vikings, ahead of the 9.5 million owed in the final year of his 5-year, 50 million dollar contract. Kendricks was an above average every down linebacker for a long time in Minnesota, finishing above 64 on PFF in five straight seasons from 2016 to 2020, while averaging 62.4 snaps per game and starting 113 of 117 games played in eight seasons in the league to date.

However, Kendricks fell below 60 on PFF in 2021 at 59.2 and was only slightly better at 61.1 in 2022, a concern given that he now heads into his age 31 season, which is why the Vikings opted to cut him loose. He’s a better value on a cheaper contract for the Chargers, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and could continue declining. There’s a good chance he is a downgrade from free agent departure Drue Tranquill, who had a 66.5 grade on 977 snaps last season.

Kenneth Murray was their other starting linebacker last season, playing 718 snaps, and he returns, but he struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade. Murray was a first round pick in 2020 and wasn’t horrible with a 54.4 PFF grade on 959 snaps as a rookie, but injuries limited him to 363 snaps in 11 games in 2021 and he struggled mightily with a 34.0 PFF grade, before only being better by default in 2022, meaning his mediocre rookie year still remains his best season to date in three years in the league.

Murray is still only going into his age 25 season and could develop into a solid starter, but that’s far from a guarantee and, with Murray’s 5th year option for 2024 being declined and 2023 becoming his contract year, the Chargers added another option in the third round draft, Washington State’s Daiyan Henley, who could take Murray’s job as soon as this season if Murray continues to struggle. Henley could also struggle as a rookie though, so there’s a good chance the linebacker spot next to Kendricks is a position of liability either way. Depth is also a concern at this position behind Kendricks, Murray, and Henley, as the rest of the bunch are career special teamers and undrafted rookies from the past two drafts who have never played a snap. Led by the aging Eric Kendricks, this is a mediocre position group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Khalil Mack, the other big off-season addition on this defense last year was cornerback JC Jackson, who they gave a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar deal to come over from the New England Patriots, a deal which is the 8th highest in the NFL among cornerbacks in terms of average annual salary. The deal made sense and seemed like it would be a good fit for the cornerback needy Chargers, as Jackson had finished above 67 on PFF in all four seasons in New England, who signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2019, including a career best 82.6 on 944 snaps in his contract year 2021, 3rd in the league among cornerbacks.

However, Jackson’s deal was a disaster in year one, as he was yet another key player significantly affected by injuries. Jackson suffered an ankle injury before the season started that cost him the first few games of the season and then limited him to a pathetic 28.7 PFF grade on 244 snaps in 5 games before a season ending torn patellar tendon, which is arguably the most serious low body injury a player can suffer, with a low percentage historically of returning to form, especially for skill position players that rely on athleticism. Jackson is expected back for the start of the season and should give the Chargers more than he did a year ago, but it seems unlikely he’ll be the caliber of cornerback that is worth the contract the Chargers gave him.

In Jackson’s absence, the Chargers top cornerbacks in terms of snaps played were Asante Samuel (971 snaps), Michael Davis (790 snaps), and Bryce Callahan (585 snaps). Callahan is gone, not retained ahead of his age 32 season, but the former two are still with the team and, even if Jackson can return to the lineup, they will continue to be part of the Chargers’ top-3 cornerbacks. That’s in part due to the Chargers’ lack of depth at the position, with their only reserve with any real NFL experience being 2022 6th round pick Ja’Sir Taylor, who played 161 nondescript snaps as a rookie, which is a concern given Jackson is coming off of a major injury, but Davis and Samuel are also starting caliber players in their own right and deserve to retain their job, even if the Chargers happen to add better depth.

Davis was the Chargers’ best cornerback a year ago, posting a 72.7 PFF grade on 790 snaps, but he missed three games with injury himself and that was a career best year for him, as the 2017 undrafted free agent had only finished in the 50s and 60s on PFF previously in his career, while playing an average of 774 snaps per season in 58 games over the previous four seasons (49 starts) prior to 2022. Davis is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2023 and he has a history of missing time with injury consistently, missing time in four of six seasons in the league.

Samuel, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2021. He struggled a bit with a 56.4 PFF grade in 12 starts as a rookie, but he improved to 63.6 in his second season in the league and, still only in his age 24 season, obviously has the upside to take another step forward in year three and develop into an above average starter long-term. That’s not a guarantee and it’s possible he’ll regress some and that some of his rookie year struggles will recur, but I would expect a little bit of a better year from him in 2023 than a year ago, which would somewhat offset the likely decline by Michael Davis.

At safety, the Chargers lost Nasir Adderley this off-season to an early retirement due to injuries and he was decent with a 62.2 PFF grade on 882 snaps (15 starts). The Chargers did nothing to replace him, instead looking internally and promoting Alohi Gilman, who has played just 900 snaps in his career over the past three seasons as a hybrid cornerback/safety/linebacker and will now be an every down safety. Gilman was pretty mediocre in his old role though, maxing out at a 58.8 PFF grade and seems to be only starting due to the lack of a better option.

The Chargers used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on safety JT Woods, but he only played 30 mediocre snaps as a rookie and doesn’t seem likely to break into the starting lineup in year two, while all their other reserve safeties are career special teamers and undrafted rookies who have never played a snap. Fortunately, the Chargers still have top safety Derwin James, who is one of the best players in the league at his position.

A first round pick in 2018, James immediately broke out with a 88.3 PFF grade in his first season in the league, while making all 16 starts, only to see injuries limit him to 299 snaps in five games total over the next two seasons. James still played at about the same level when on the field in that limited action though and he returned to a healthier season in 2021, when he finished with a 78.1 PFF grade, followed by a 77.3 grade in another relatively healthy season in 2022. Injuries have remained a concern, as he’s missed at least two games in each of the past two seasons, missing five games total over that stretch, but he has been much more durable than he was earlier in his career and, still only in his age 27 season, he should remain one of the best players in the league for as long as he can stay on the field.

Very well-rounded, James has finished above 70 in run defense grade and above 70 in pass defense grade in every season in his career and he’s especially excelled on the rare occasions he blitzes, contributing 9.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 31.0% pressure rate on just 142 pass rush snaps in his career. I would expect more of the same from him this season, even if that same is likely to include a couple games missed due to injury, with his last full season being his rookie year in 2018. James significantly elevates a secondary that otherwise has just decent cornerbacks, a likely weak spot at the other safety spot, and depth concerns overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers entered last season with among the most talented rosters in the league, but were disappointing because of injuries to significant key players, with top wide receivers Keenan Allen (7 games missed) and Mike Williams (4 games missed), stud left tackle Rashawn Slater (14 games missed), talented center Corey Linsley (3 games missed), dominant edge defender Joey Bosa (12 games missed), expected top cornerback JC Jackson (12 games missed), new top cornerback Michael Davis (3 games missed) and top defensive back Derwin James (3 games missed) all missing significant time due to injury last season.

On top of that, star quarterback Justin Herbert suffered a rib injury early in the season and struggled by his standards for a stretch as a result. The Chargers went still 10-7, but went out in the first round of the post-season, a disappointment for a team that was aggressive last off-season and that looked like a contender entering the season, and they were arguably not even as good as that record suggests, with a point differential (+7) and DVOA (-0.8%) that suggests they were a middling team.

This season, the Chargers should be healthier and they enter the season with a similar roster to a year ago, so expectations should be pretty high if they can have better injury luck. They got better as last season went on, as they got healthier and likely would have advanced at least one round in the post-season had Mike Williams not been reinjured the week prior in a meaningless week 18 contest, with the Chargers barely losing to the Jaguars without him. The Chargers are probably still behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, but most teams would be and the Chargers have a roster that can compete with the best in a loaded AFC, even if their path out of it to a Super Bowl appearance would be very tough and crowded. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 24, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

When Josh McDaniels came to the Raiders, he and the new front office gave Derek Carr a shot, giving him a “3-year, 121.5 million” extension that effectively just gave him a raise in what would have been the final year of his previous deal in 2022 from 19.8 million to a fully guaranteed 25 million, without guaranteeing any of the remaining 116.3 million that would be due from 2023-2025. The Raiders essentially paid a few million dollars to see if Carr could prove to be worth a top of the market contract in McDaniels’ offense and, if he didn’t, the Raiders would plan on moving on from the player who had started for them since his rookie season in 2014.

Instead of proving he was worth that contract, Carr actually had one of the worst seasons of his career, completing 60.8% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, good for a QB rating of just 86.3, worst since his rookie season, as was his 66.6 PFF grade. That made the Raiders’ decision easy and, when they fell out of the post-season race with two weeks left in the season, the Raiders shut down Carr to avoid him getting hurt and not being able to pass a physical, which would have guaranteed his 2023 salary. Backup Jarrett Stidham started the final two games of the season, the Raiders finished at 6-11 and ranked 26th in DVOA, and Carr was let go early in the off-season when the Raiders couldn’t find a suitable trade partner.

With Carr gone, there were a few routes the Raiders could have gone to replace him. They could have used their 7th overall pick to draft or trade up for a quarterback and build around a young, cost controlled quarterback long-term. They could have brought back Jarrett Stidham on a cheap contract and paired him with another cheap contract as competition. Or they could have been aggressive going after veteran free agents on the open market, using all or most of the money they saved from releasing Carr to do so.

The Raiders chose the latter option, giving one of the top available veteran free agent quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo a 3-year, 72.75 million dollar deal that essentially guarantees him 48.5 million over the next two seasons, or 36 million guaranteed over one year. Garoppolo has completed 67.6% of his passes for an average of 8.28 YPA, 87 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, giving him a 99.6 career QB rating is better than Carr’s (91.8) and significantly better than what Carr did in 2022, but Garoppolo played with a lot more talent around him with the 49ers than Carr did with the Raiders for the most part and Garoppolo been a lot less durable, missing 31 games over the past five seasons since becoming a starter in San Francisco. He’s probably not a downgrade from Carr and he is noticeably cheaper, but he’ll probably be significantly less available as well.

Availability is actually already a question even before Garoppolo’s tenure in Las Vegas even begins, as Garoppolo had foot surgery early in the off-season and has language in his contract that allows the Raiders to void any guarantees if he can’t pass a physical by week one. It doesn’t sound like there’s a real possibility that will happen, but it would be a disaster for both parties if that happened, especially with the Raiders not having another good option on the roster.

The Raiders signed veteran backup Brian Hoyer in free agency and he has a career 82.9 QB rating and 40 career starts in 14 seasons in the league, but he’s also going into his age 38 season and has thrown just 41 passes over the past three seasons, mostly struggling, so he’s an underwhelming backup option at this stage of his career and would almost definitely struggle in the somewhat likely scenario they he ends up having to fill in for Garoppolo for one reason or another.

The Raiders also used a 4th round pick on Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell as a long-term developmental option and there’s a chance he could wind up as the primary backup as a rookie if he has a good training camp and pre-season, but, most likely, he will be the 3rd quarterback and, like Hoyer, he would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action in 2023. This isn’t a bad quarterback room, but there are reasons for concern.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The Raiders’ receiving corps was supposed to be a strength going into last season and there were still some obvious highlights, with Davante Adams ranking third in the league in receiving yards with a 100/1516/14 slash line, but slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller were also supposed to be big parts of this offense and were limited to 36/330/2 in 10 games and 28/388/3 in 9 games respectively by injuries. In their absence, wide receiver Mack Hollins had to play much more than expected, finishing second on the team with a 57/690/4 slash line, but that came on 94 targets, good for just 7.34 yards per target, which is mediocre, as was his 1.14 yards per route run average.

Waller was traded to the Giants for a third round pick this off-season, saving the Raiders 11.825 million, but the Raiders should get a healthier year from Hunter Renfrow, they used the money they saved by trading Waller on signing free agent Jakobi Meyers to a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal to be an upgrade on Hollins, who left as a free agent this off-season, and they did a pretty good job reloading at tight end to replace Waller and Foster Moreau, who was their primary tight end in Waller’s absence last season and averaged 1.22 yards per route, before also departing this off-season. In free agency, the Raiders added veteran starting tight end Austin Hooper on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal, took a flier on former first round pick OJ Howard, and then used the 35th pick in the draft on Michael Mayer, who was one of the best tight ends in the draft and could make an instant impact in year one.

Davante Adams will remain the top receiver regardless, as he’s one of the top receivers in the entire league. Over the past five seasons, he’s averaged a 106/1365/12 slash line per season, with his only season below 1300 yards coming in a year in which he was limited to 12 games by injury, while averaging 2.52 yards per route run combined and finishing above 83 on PFF in all five seasons, including an active three straight season streak over 90, a stretch in which he’s averaged 2.72 yards per route run. Adams is going into his age 31 season and will start to decline soon, as 31-year-old wide receivers are 35.7% less likely to surpass 1000 yards than 29-year-old wide receivers, a big drop off for a short period of time, but even at less than his best Adams should remain better than most wide receivers and the Raiders’ obvious #1 option, even with what should be a better group behind him this season.

Renfrow has obvious bounce back potential if healthy, averaging 1.92 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, while averaging a 69/766/4 slash line per season on 92 targets as the primary slot option. He was limited to just 1.13 yards per route run last season, but that was in part due to injuries and he has a great chance to be significantly better than that next season. The one thing that could cap his production is how many options the Raiders now have in the passing game, but Renfrow should be pretty efficient with his opportunities, even if he plays fewer snaps and sees fewer targets than he did in his first three seasons in the league.

Jakobi Meyers will also have a big role, as evidenced by the significant contract the Raiders gave him to come over from the Patriots this off-season. Meyers went undrafted in 2019, but he has averaged 1.87 yards per route run in the past three seasons since becoming a starter in his second season in the league, leading to average 70/800/3 slash line on an average of 101 targets per season as the #1 receiver for the run heavy Patriots. Like Renfrow, Meyers could also see his production capped by the amount of other options the Raiders have, but he should be an above average #2/#3 wide receiver and gives the Raiders a very impressive trio with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Jakobi Meyers, assuming all of them can stay healthy.

The Raiders have pretty good depth at the wide receiver position too. Keenan Cole, DeAndre Carter, and Phillip Dorsett are veteran options with experience and career averages of 1.20, 1.14, and 1.10 yards per route run respectively, underwhelming, but not horrible for reserve options. On top of that, the Raiders used a third round pick on Cincinnati’s Tre Tucker in the draft and he could easily win a top reserve job and end up as high as 4th on the depth chart behind the Raiders’ talented top trio.

At tight end, the veteran Hooper and the rookie Mayer will compete for the starting role and both figure to have significant roles, regardless of who starts. Mayer obviously has more upside long-term and could make an immediate impact, but Hooper isn’t a bad stopgap starting option if needed and he would be an above average #2 tight end if relegated to that role, which his contract is in line with. Hooper has started 59 of 105 games played in seven seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons, averaging a decent 1.39 yards per route run and holding up as a run blocker as well. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him, solid, but unspectacular play in whatever role the Raiders need him in.

OJ Howard could also earn a role, but his contract only has 450K guaranteed, so he could just as easily not make the final roster. There’s a reason he could only get that much guaranteed money in free agency, as he has averaged just 1.03 yards per route run over the past two seasons, while finishing with overall grades of 49.0 and 56.2 on PFF. That’s a steep drop off for a player who averaged 1.73 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league and who was a first round pick in 2017, but Howard has suffered multiple significant leg injuries in his career and they seem to have sapped his abilities.

Howard is still only in his age 29 season and theoretically could have some bounce back potential, another year removed from his most recent injury, but he probably won’t have much of an impact on this offense, in a deep receiving corps that was already pretty decent last year just because of Davante Adams and that now is much deeper than a year ago with Renfrow expected to return to health, Meyers being added, and Michael Mayer and Austin Hooper being decent replacements for Darren Waller, who also missed much of last season with injury. This is one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.

Grade: A

Running Backs

With a lack of consistent, healthy targets in the passing game behind Davante Adams, the Raiders used running back Josh Jacobs pretty heavily in the passing game, with Jacobs tying a career high in targets (64) and yards per route run (1.17) and setting a new career high in receiving yards (400). Jacobs also had the best year of his 4-year career on the ground, rushing for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns on 340 carries, good for an average of 4.86 YPC, all of which were career highs for Jacobs, who was PFF’s #1 ranked running back in rushing grade at 91.9.

Jacobs was a first round pick in 2019 and burst onto the scene with a big rookie year, rushing for 1,150 yards and 7 touchdowns on 242 carries (4.75 YPC) and receiving an 86.9 rushing grade from PFF, but he missed three games with injury, a trend that continued into his next two seasons in which he missed two each, and the injuries seemed to slow him down, limiting him to just 3.95 YPC and 21 touchdowns on 490 carries between 2020-2021, when he received reduced rushing grades of 79.4 and 81.5, leading to the Raiders declining his 5th year option for 2023, which would have guaranteed him 8.034 million. When Jacobs put up his career best year in 2022 after the option was declined, the Raiders were left with no real choice but to franchise tag Jacobs at a 10.091 million dollar salary.

Even the Raiders seem skeptical that Jacobs can continue producing like he did last season though, as they don’t seem in a rush to give him a top of the market long-term deal, and the history of running backs the year after high rushing totals suggests that Jacobs will have a hard time repeating last season’s performance. Of the last 35 rushing champions, just 6 have surpassed their rushing total the following season and only another 2 have come within 200 yards of their previous rushing total, with the other 28 all coming in at least 200 yards shorter a year later.

Jacobs’ chances of repeating last season’s performance seems to be even less when you consider that of those 8 exceptions, 4 were Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders, arguably the two greatest running backs of the modern NFL. Even with those two big exceptions factored in, the previous 35 rushing champions averaged 22.6% fewer carries, 31.9% fewer yards, 33.3% fewer touchdowns, and a 12.0% lower YPC average the following season, going from an average slash line of 344/1693/14 to 266/1153/9 slash line, still a solid season, but not the highs they reached as rushing champion the year before. Factor in that Jacobs already has a history of injuries and inconsistency and it seems like there’s a very good chance Jacobs regresses at least somewhat this season, either by being less effective or missing time or both.

The Raiders don’t have a lot of running back depth, which was not something they needed last year when Jacobs played all 17 games and averaged 48.3 snaps per game and 23.1 touches per game, but it’s very possible he doesn’t quite reach any of those three numbers this season and, as a result, they would need more from their backups. Veteran Ameer Abdullah played the most snaps of any other running back on this team last season with 176, but he was only a passing down specialist, with all but seven of his snaps coming on passing plays and just four total carries on the season.

Abdullah still isn’t much of an option as a runner, with a 3.95 YPC average on 87 carries over the past 5 seasons as primarily a passing down specialist and special teamer, and he now heads into his age 30 season, but he could retain a small passing down role this year, as passing situations are a good opportunity to give a rest to Jacobs, who is a middling pass catcher at best, while Abdullah has fared pretty well in those situations in his career, with a 1.29 yards per route run average, including 1.57 last season.

With Abdullah barely getting any carries last season, the running back with the second most rushing yards this season was actually 4th round rookie Zamir White, albeit with just 70 yards on 17 carries. The Raiders didn’t trust White much as a rookie, especially in passing situations, but he could earn a bigger role in his second season in the league and become the reliable backup the Raiders need behind Jacobs. That’s not a guarantee though and the Raiders would still likely be in trouble if Jacobs missed extended time with injury. Having the league’s reigning rushing leader gives the Raiders a high upside at this position, but the history of reigning rushing leaders and the Raiders lack of proven depth behind him are a concerning situation.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Raiders have good skill position talent around Jimmy Garoppolo, similar to his situation in San Francisco, where he was fairly effective, but one thing he doesn’t have with the Raiders that he had with the 49ers is a dominant offensive line. This group was actually better than expected a year ago though, with surprising performances from a couple players. The biggest surprise was right tackle Jeremaine Eluemunor, who made 17 starts and received a 75.3 grade from PFF in his 6th season in the league in 2022, after mostly being a mediocre reserve prior to last season, making just 14 starts in five seasons and finishing below 60 on PFF four times. It’s possible Eluemunor has permanently turned a corner and the former 5th round pick is still only in his age 29 season, but it seems more likely he’ll regress at least somewhat this season, even if he remains at least a decent starter.

Left guard Dylan Parham was also a bit of a surprise, although not on the same scale as Eluemanor. Still, Parham was only a third round pick and he was pretty decent with a 61.9 PFF grade while making all 17 starts as a rookie, so the Raiders have to be pretty happy with that, considering their issues at the position the year prior. Parham will likely remain at least a decent starter again in 2023 and he has the upside to develop into more long-term, even if he doesn’t necessarily take a step forward right away in year two.

The rest of this line was about as expected. Left tackle Kolton Miller continued his dominant play from the year prior, ranking 5th among offensive tackles on PFF with a 84.1 grade, after ranking 8th with a 84.0 grade in 2021. Miller looked like a bust as the 15th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft when he had a 49.6 PFF grade as a rookie, but that increased to 65.0 in his second season in the league, 73.0 the year after that, and then into the 80s over the past two seasons. Still only in his age 28 season with only three starts missed in five seasons in the league, I see no reason to expect anything different from him in 2023.

Center Andre James continued his middling play from the year prior, finishing with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts after a 64.1 PFF grade in 15 starts in 2021, in the first starting action of his career. The 2019 undrafted free agent probably doesn’t have much more upside, but he’s established himself as a reliable starter and I would expect him to remain that this season. Right guard Alex Bars, meanwhile, struggled with a 45.4 PFF grade in 14 starts, which also was to be expected, as Bars had made just 11 starts in three seasons in the league prior to last season and the former undrafted free agent had never finished above 60 on PFF even in limited action. He should be expected to continue struggling if he remains the starter in 2023.

The Raiders return all five starting offensive linemen from a year ago and not much is expected to change, but the one at least somewhat notable addition the Raiders made was adding experienced journeyman veteran Greg Van Roten, who will mostly likely be versatile depth on the interior, but who could theoretically take Bars’ job at right guard and be an upgrade, given how much Bars struggled a year ago and that Bars only received 1.5 million on a 1-year deal to re-sign as a free agent this off-season. Van Roten made 50 starts from 2018-2021 and received PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons, but he slipped to a 57.6 PFF grade on just 354 snaps in 2022 and now heads into his age 33 season, so his days as a starting caliber player are behind him, even if he could still probably be better than Bars was a year ago, if given the opportunity.

Along with Van Roten on the interior, the Raiders also have Justin Herron and Brandon Parker as their top reserve options at tackle. Herron only played 17 snaps last season, but the 2020 6th round pick played 745 snaps (10 starts) in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season and wasn’t horrible, with PFF grades of 63.4 and 56.7. Parker, meanwhile, missed all of last season with injury, but the 2018 3rd round pick made 32 starts in his first four seasons in the league and, while he finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons, he might not be a bad backup, assuming he’s over his injury from a year ago. This isn’t a great offensive line, but it’s not a bad one either.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

While the Raiders’ offense was decent last season (17th in offensive DVOA) and could be better this season with what should be an improved receiving corps, the Raiders’ defense was a huge problem last season, ranking 31st in defensive DVOA. Defensive performance is much less predictive and predictable on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and it’s much easier to improve a bad defense from one year to the next than it is to improve a bad offense, but the Raiders did very little to get more talented on this side of the ball this off-season and, while they could still be better than a year ago, it will probably mostly be by default, after being one of the worst defenses in the league a year ago.

At the interior defender position, the Raiders had just one player see any action and finish above 60 on PFF and that was Andrew Billings (76.4 PFF grade on 478 snaps), who was not retained this off-season. The Raiders actually didn’t retain most of this position group from a year ago, which, outside of Billings, isn’t a big loss because of how bad the rest of this group was, but their replacements are unlikely to be much better and no one in this group has the upside to be as good as Billings was a year ago, even if Billings was just a rotational player.

The Raiders bring back veterans Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery from a year ago and could give more playing time to second year players Neil Farrell and Matthew Butler, who played 158 snaps and 56 snaps as fourth and fifth round rookies respectively. The Raiders also used a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Byron Young and took veteran fliers on Adam Butler and John Jenkins, who will also compete for roles, though they could just as easily be left off the final roster, after getting just 486K and 200K guaranteed on their contracts.

Nichols will probably end up leading this position group in snaps played again, after doing so with 801 a year ago. He has some bounce back potential, finishing with PFF grades of 75.3 and 61.3 on 618 snaps and 679 snaps respectively in the two seasons prior to last season, when he fell to 55.5 in the first season of a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal that he signed last off-season to come over from the Bears, who selected him in the 5th round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

It was actually mostly Nichols’ run defense that fell off in 2022, as he still managed 1.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 6.5% pressure rate as a pass rusher, not that far off from the 8 sacks, 15 hits, and 8.8% pressure rate he had over the previous two seasons combined in 2020 and 2021. Still only going into his age 27 season, there’s a good chance Nichols run defense improves this season and, even if it happens to not, he’ll likely remain a solid pass rusher at the very least.

Tillery was even worse than Nichols overall last season and, unlike Nichols, he doesn’t have any real bounce back potential, having never finished with even a grade in the 50s on PFF in four seasons in the league. A bust of a first round pick by the Chargers in 2019, Tillery has a decent 6.7% pressure rate for his career, but that’s in part because he has lined up on the edge on occasion, where it is easier to pressure the quarterback from, and he has been consistently horrendous in run defense, leading to the Chargers cutting him loose midway through last season.

That’s when the Raiders decided to pick him up, playing him 258 snaps down the stretch in 8 games and watching him continue to struggle mightily with a 42.9 PFF grade during that stretch. He’s only in his age 27 season and may have theoretical untapped upside, which seems to be what the Raiders are betting on by giving him a 2-year, 6.6 million dollar deal to stay with them as a free agent this off-season, but he probably won’t even prove to be worth that relatively small contract. He’ll probably be a de facto starter, but only by default, due to the Raiders’ lack of other options.

Neil Farrell and Matthew Butler have some upside, but they didn’t show much as rookies, struggling mightily on very limited snap counts. Third round rookie Bryon Young also has potential, but enters the league pretty raw. Butler and Jenkins, meanwhile, are both underwhelming veteran options. Jenkins was a solid base package run stuffer in his prime, but he has a career pressure rate of just 5.5%, he’s never played more than 530 snaps in a season, and he’s slowed down in recent years, playing just 657 total snaps over the past three seasons combined and now going into his age 34 season. He might be able to play a little bit of a situational role, but he also might just not have anything left in the tank.

Butler, meanwhile, had a pressure rate of 6.8% and an average of 480 total snaps played per year in his first five seasons in the league from 2017-2021, but struggled mightily against the run, leading to him finishing in the 50s overall on PFF in all five seasons, and then he missed all of last season with injury. Butler is still relatively young in his age 29 season and could earn a situational role, but he would likely be underwhelming even in that role and, coming off of a lost season, he could just as easily wind up off the final roster, even in a very mediocre position group.

Grade: C-

Edge Defenders

By far the biggest bright spot on this defense a year ago was edge defender Maxx Crosby, who was PFF’s 4th ranked edge defender with a 90.1 grade on 1,082 snaps, most among edge defenders by a wide margin, with no one else having more than 953. He excelled against the run and totaled 12.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate as a pass rusher. It’s not the first time Crosby has done that either, finishing the 2021 season ranked 2nd among edge defenders on PFF with a 91.4 grade on 926 snaps (4th most snaps played among edge defenders), again excelling against the run and totaling 8 sacks, 21 hits, and a 16.9% pressure rate.

Crosby was a 4th round pick in 2019 and had decent sack totals in his first two seasons in the league too, with 17 sacks total, but his peripheral pass rush stats were not nearly as good with a 9.1% total pressure rate and he used to struggle against the run as well, leading to him finishing with PFF grades of just 65.4 and 57.8 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. However, he seems to have permanently turned a corner as a player and is still only going into his age 26 season, so he should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league again in 2023, even if he happens to not be quite as good as the past two seasons.

As well as Crosby played, the Raiders also got a disappointing season opposite Crosby from big free agent signing Chandler Jones, who they gave a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal to come over from the Cardinals. In 10 seasons prior to joining the Raiders, Jones had 107.5 sacks, 99 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 139 games and eight finishes above 70 on PFF overall in ten seasons, after being selected in the first round by the Patriots in 2012, and the Raiders paid for that past production. However, in his first season in Las Vegas, Jones’ age caught up to him and he declined significantly. finishing with a 63.8 overall grade on PFF, including a career worst 60.4 pass rush grade, totalling just 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate.

Now Jones heads into his age 33 season and his best days are almost definitely behind him and, while he could bounce back a little bit from arguably the worst year of his career, he could also just as easily keep declining and become a liability for this defense. Preparing for a future without Jones, the Raiders used the 7th overall pick on Texas Tech‘s Tyree Wilson, a great choice because Wilson could have easily been a top-5 selection. He figures to have an immediate role as a rookie and has a good chance to make an impact right away. It won’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over their incumbent top edge defender Clelin Ferrell, who had a middling 63.8 PFF grade last season, and with Ferrell gone, Wilson has a good chance to exceed Ferrell’s snap count of 492 from last season, perhaps by a significant amount.

Maxx Crosby obviously handles a large workload well and should come off the field as little as possible, something he did last season when he missed just 43 total snaps, but Chandler Jones also played a pretty high snap count with 783 in 15 games and perhaps he would benefit from more regular rest as he ages, which is something Wilson can provide. Even if Jones can’t bounce back in a smaller role, this is still a very good edge defender trio, with Wilson possessing a high ceiling and especially with Maxx Crosby being one of the best edge defenders in the league.

With the top-3 that the Raiders have at the edge defender position, they don’t have much need for other depth, but they did add veteran journeyman Jordan Willis in free agency and he could have a deep reserve role, as could Malcolm Koonce, a 2021 3rd round pick who has only played 783 snaps in two seasons in the league, but who still has the upside to potentially take a step forward and play at least a deep reserve role in his third season in the league in 2023. Willis, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2017, but, between injury and ineffectiveness, he’s averaged just 187 snaps played per season over the past four seasons, with a max of 229 snaps in a season over that stretch and mostly middling play in that limited action. Neither Willis nor Koonce will be needed much barring injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, with one of the better top trios of edge defenders in the league.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Raiders top linebacker a year ago was Denzel Perryman, who had a 74.2 PFF grade, but injuries limited him to just 555 snaps in 12 games and he is no longer with the team, leaving behind a group that didn’t have a single player over 60 on PFF a year ago. Most of last year’s group is gone anyway, with the exceptions being Divine Deablo (463 snaps), an every down player who missed nine games with injury, and a pair of undrafted free agents from a year ago, Darien Butler, who only played 22 snaps as a rookie, and Luke Masterson, who got into at least some action with 344 snaps, but who struggled mightily with a 30.8 PFF grade.

The Raiders didn’t add much in the way of reinforcements though, only adding veteran free agent Robert Spillane, a situational player who has never exceeded 588 snaps played in a season, and 6th round rookie Amari Burney, who would likely struggle in a significant role as a rookie, so this is a pretty wide open position group and a very underwhelming one overall.

Deablo would seem to have the inside track to retaining the every down job he had before he got hurt last season and the 2021 3rd round pick wasn’t that bad in it, with a 58.4 PFF grade. He also had a 63.2 PFF grade on 297 snaps as a rookie and has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023, if he can stay healthy, though that’s far from a guarantee. He doesn’t have much competition for an every down role, even if he hasn’t yet come close to playing that kind of snap count.

Spillane will likely be the other starter, but, as I mentioned, he’s never played an every down role and, even in his limited roles, he’s been pretty underwhelming, with PFF grades of 66.3, 49.8, and 52.5 on snap counts of 379, 347, and 588 over the past three seasons respectively, the only three seasons of significant action in the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career. Spillane not being an every down player leaves playing time available for other linebackers behind him and Deablo, but obviously their options are limited, with no other remotely experienced players or even somewhat high draft picks at the position. This figures to be a position of particular weakness for the Raiders this season, even on an overall underwhelming defense.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Raiders got good cornerback play in 2021 with Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs finishing the year with PFF grades of 76.0 and 79.1 respectively, but Hayward left as a free agent last off-season and Hobbs was a just 5th round rookie slot cornerback who played 55.8 snaps per game in 2021 couldn’t repeat that success in a larger role in his second season in the league in 2022, posting a PFF grade of 60.9 on 60.6 snaps per game. That regression was in part due to injuries and he missed six games in total, but it’s possible he’ll never develop into anything more than a slot cornerback and even on the slot he could be inconsistent, even if that’s clearly his highest upside spot.

The Raiders don’t seem to have the luxury to only use him on the slot though. Rock Ya-Sin was a starter a year ago too and, while he also missed six games with injury, he had a 65.7 PFF grade on 663 snaps and is no longer with the team. With Hobbs and Ya-Sin missing time, Amik Robertson led this cornerback group with 677 snaps played last season and he wasn’t bad with a 64.1 PFF grade, but the 2020 4th round pick is a one-year wonder even as a solid starter, struggling mightily in limited action early in his career, and has never been a season long starter, which is what the Raiders will need from him this season. Even if he holds up as a season long starter, he probably doesn’t have much upside beyond being a capable starter and he could easily end up struggling.

The Raiders added veterans Brandon Facyson, David Long, and Duke Shelley in free agency this off-season and they’ll be in the mix for roles in three cornerback sets with Hobbs and Robertson, but they are all underwhelming options. Facyson is returning to the Raiders, with whom he played 602 snaps in 2021, but he had a 51.7 PFF grade and then followed that up with a 56.2 PFF grade on 455 snaps in 2022, in the two most significant snap totals of the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career, so he would likely struggle if he ended up as a top-3 cornerback.

David Long was a 3rd round pick by the Rams in 2019, but he’s averaged just 257 snaps played per season in four seasons in the league, with a max of 517 snaps played in a season, and he hasn’t played well either, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, including a 53.6 grade on 287 snaps in 2022. Long is still only in his age 25 season and isn’t a bad flier considering his talent, his youth, and where he was drafted, but he would probably struggle if he landed a significant role. Shelley, meanwhile, was a 6th round pick in 2019 and has averaged just 339 snaps per season in the past three seasons, with a maximum of 409 snaps in a season. He has flashed some potential in limited action and is still only in his age 27 season, but he would be a projection to a starting role and also could end up struggling.

Sam Webb (327 snaps), Anthony Averett (278 snaps), and Tyler Hall (218 snaps) all saw action last season too in a banged up position group and Webb and Hall remain on the roster, but Webb went undrafted in 2022 and was mediocre in his limited rookie year role and, while Tyler Hall flashed potential, it came in very limited action and the 2020 undrafted free agent had only played 7 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season, so he’s very unproven. He could provide decent depth, but is unlikely to have a real role in this secondary, even with this group being very unsettled.

The Raiders also got much worse play from starting safety Trevon Moehrig in 2022 than they got from him in 2021, when he was a 2nd round rookie and impressed with a 72.5 PFF grade on 1,152 snaps, before falling to 54.1 on 906 snaps in 2022. Moehrig is still only going into his age 24 season and could easily bounce back or even have his best season yet in his third season in the league in 2023, but he also just as easily could continue struggling. The Raiders will need him to bounce back because their best safety from a year ago, Duron Harmon, who had a 72.3 PFF grade on 1,076 snaps, is no longer on the team and has been replaced by free agency Marcus Epps.

Epps was a 6th round pick in 2019 and flashed some potential on limited snap roles early in his career with PFF grades of 75.1 and 72.8 on snap counts of 365 and 505 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he couldn’t translate that into a full season starting role in 2022, making all 17 starts, but receiving just a 56.3 grade from PFF. Epps could be a little bit better this season and he’s still only in his age 27 season, but he could also just as easily continue struggling and he figures to be a downgrade from Harmon either way. They’ll need Moehrig to bounce back enough to offset that, otherwise safety could be a position of liability this season.

Epps is likely locked into a starting role, with the Raiders’ other options being Roderic Teamer, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has 858 career defensive snaps, Jaquan Johnson, a 2019 6th round pick who has played even less, with 428 career defensive snaps, and 5th round rookie Chris Smith out of Georgia, all of whom would almost definitely struggle if they were the season long starter, so Epps will likely remain the starter even if he struggles. Moehrig and Hobbs at least have some upside and could bounce back from sophomore slumps in 2022, but this is a pretty underwhelming secondary overall.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Raiders were a mediocre team a year ago, ranking 26th in DVOA, and it seems likely they will be one again this season. Jimmy Garoppolo could be an upgrade over Derek Carr under center and he’s been more effective statistically in his career, but he won’t be bringing San Francisco’s supporting cast with him to Las Vegas and he’s also likely to get hurt again at some point or another, forcing either mediocre veteran Brian Hoyer or inexperienced 4th round rookie Aidan O’Connell into significant action, which, even if the Raiders can manage to be in the playoff mix this season, would likely doom their chances of getting into the post-season.

Their receiving corps should be deeper than a year ago, but feature back Josh Jacobs is unlikely to be quite as good as a year ago, while their offensive line remains middling at best. Their defense could be better by default this season, after ranking 31st in defensive DVOA a year ago, but they still have a lot of problems on that side of the ball, so that should remain a big weakness for this team. This isn’t a horrible team, unless Garoppolo misses a big chunk of the season, but they’re likely to be a below average team and have a very tough road to even a wild card spot in the loaded AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in AFC West

Denver Broncos 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 22, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Broncos

Quarterback

The Broncos thought they had solved their long-standing quarterback problem last off-season when they acquired Russell Wilson. With no playoff appearances since Peyton Manning’s final season in 2015 and with none of the 11 starting quarterbacks the Broncos tried in the six seasons after Manning’s retirement showing much promise, the Broncos got aggressive and traded away a pair of first and second round picks to the Seahawks, along with a trio of mid-level players, in exchange for the Seahawks’ starting quarterback of the past decade (158 of a possible 161 starts), who also received a 5-year, 242.5 million dollar extension with 124 million fully guaranteed upon arrival in Denver.

Wilson had completed 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.78 YPA, 308 touchdowns, and 98 interceptions over that 10-year stretch in Seattle with 5.54 YPC and 23 touchdowns on 846 carries, while finishing above 80 on PFF seven times and above 90 three times, so it seemed like the Broncos were getting a safe bet, even with Wilson heading into his mid 30s. However, Wilson struggled mightily in his first season in Denver, completing just 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, with 277 yards and 3 touchdowns on 55 carries (5.04 YPC) on the ground, while receiving just a 66.2 grade from PFF.

Wilson wasn’t the Broncos only problem last season and their supporting cast was a shell of what it was supposed to be, leading the league in adjusted games lost to injury, but the Broncos finished just 5-12 in Wilson’s first season in Denver, their lowest winning percentage since 2010, a massive disappointment for a team that made an aggressive win now move and that was seen by some as Super Bowl contenders entering the season. Their defense actually wasn’t bad, ranking 10th in DVOA, so their Wilson and offense, which ranked 29th in DVOA, deserves the vast majority of the blame.

Wilson was particularly bad in the pocket, taking numerous unnecessary sacks, which led to the Broncos allowing 63 sacks on the season, most in the NFL, which was probably the biggest barrier to this being an effective offense last season. Some of the blame for the high sack total should fall on the offensive line, which I’ll get into later, but Wilson had the 4th highest rate of taking sacks while under pressure, ranked 7th in time to attempt, and was credited as being responsible for 11 of the sacks he took, 5th most in the NFL, so he definitely deserves much of the blame as well.

Coming into this off-season, reviving Wilson’s career was obviously the top priority, with Wilson’s contract tying him to the Broncos through at least 2025, paying him 104 million over the next three seasons before they can realistically move on from him. The Broncos hired head coach Sean Payton, surrendering a first round pick to the Saints for him, which is a steep price, but Payton figures to be a big upgrade on last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett, which can only help Wilson’s chances of bouncing back. The Broncos also made a couple key free agent signings and will almost definitely be healthier this season, so they should be better around Wilson than a year ago as well.

However, Wilson is now going into his age 35 season and, even if he bounces back a little bit, it’s very possible his best days are behind him. His athleticism in particular seems to have dropped off over the past two seasons, leading to the two lowest rushing totals of his career. Wilson was never that much of a rushing quarterback, but his mobility has always been a big part of his game as he likes to hold the ball, extend plays, and makes throws on the run.

Now in his mid-30s, it makes sense he wouldn’t be able to do that as effectively anymore and, as a result, his whole game suffers significantly. Even in his final season in Seattle, Wilson’s 73.9 PFF grade was his 2nd lowest of his tenure there, perhaps the first sign of his decline. Wilson probably won’t be quite as bad in 2023 as he was a year ago, but I wouldn’t expect him to return to his Seattle level of play either, or even close to it. With Wilson being a question mark, the backup quarterback spot is important for the Broncos and they treated it as such, giving a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal to ex-Raider Jarrett Stidham, which makes him one of the better paid backup quarterbacks in the league.

Stidham was a 4th round pick in 2019 and had never made a start before making a couple down the stretch last season for a Raiders team that essentially had nothing to play for, but he wasn’t bad in those two starts, completing 64.3% of his passes for 8.34 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions and could remain a solid backup going forward. He’s inexperienced and far from a proven option, but if Wilson continues to really struggle it’s possible the Broncos might give him a chance. With Wilson’s best days likely behind him, this isn’t a bad quarterback room, but it probably doesn’t have a huge upside.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, injuries were a big part of the reason why the Broncos struggled last season and their biggest injury loss on offense was probably the absence of talented left tackle Garret Bolles, whose season was ended by a broken leg after 325 snaps in five games. Bolles was a first round pick by the Broncos in 2017 and has been starting at left tackle since his rookie year, making 82 starts total and receiving a PFF grade of 70 or higher in all six seasons. In his absence, Cameron Fleming (976 snaps), Calvin Anderson (439 snaps), and Billy Turner (483 snaps) were their primary tackles and they weren’t bad, but none were on the same level as Bolles.

Bolles will be in his age 31 season this season and, between that and the injury, he might not be at his best this year, but he’ll still be a welcome re-addition for this team and he should still remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive drop off. He’ll start opposite free agent acquisition Mike McGlinchey, who they gave a 5-year, 87.5 million dollar deal to come over from the 49ers as a free agent.

The 9th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, McGlinchey has been an above average starter when healthy in his career, finishing above 70 on PFF in all three seasons in which he’s played every game and, even in his other two seasons, in which he’s missed 13 games total, he’s still finished with grades in the 60s on PFF. The Broncos might have overpaid a little bit, but he should be at least a solid starter for them and will be a welcome addition to an offensive line that needed help.

McGlinchey’s arrival will push Cameron Fleming into the swing tackle role. Fleming started 15 games last season, first at right tackle and then at left tackle after Bolles got hurt, and he was the best of the Broncos’ offensive tackles aside from Bolles, but he’s mostly been a backup in his career, surpassing 7 starts in just twice of 9 seasons in the league, and now heads into his age 31 season. Fleming has actually surpassed 70 on PFF four times in his career, making 30 total starts across those four seasons, but he’s been very inconsistent, with four seasons under 60 (29 starts) as well, so he’s best as a reserve, though he is an above average one and one who can probably hold up as the starter for a stretch if needed.

The Broncos also gave a big contract to ex-Ravens guard Ben Powers, signing him for 51.5 million over 4 years (9th highest among guards in average annual salary) to start at left guard in place of free agent departure Dalton Risner, who had a 61.1 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Powers figures to be an upgrade, coming off seasons of 66.3 and 62.9 on PFF in 12 starts and 17 starts respectively over the past two seasons, but the 2019 4th round pick has never done anything to prove he’s worth this kind of money and, already in his age 27 season, he probably doesn’t have any further untapped potential. He should be a solid starter and at least a slight upgrade on Risner, but he’s not a top level guard.

With Bolles out last season, the Broncos’ best offensive lineman was right guard Quinn Meinerz, who was a bright spot on this offense, ranking 5th among guards on PFF with a 77.7 grade in 13 starts in a breakout second season for the 2021 third round pick, after posting a decent 67.4 grade on 623 snaps as a rookie. He is still a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but, only in his age 25 season, he has a good chance to develop into one of the consistently best guards in the league long-term and he has a strong chance to have another above average season in 2023.

On the other hand, center Lloyd Cushenberry was the Broncos’ worst starting offensive lineman last season, with a 56.2 PFF grade. He only made 8 starts due to injury, but he wasn’t really missed and, in fact, his replacement Graham Glasgow was actually slightly less mediocre with a 59.3 PFF grade. A 3rd round pick in 2020, Cushenberry was better in 2021, with a 64.2 PFF grade in 16 starts, but that’s not that impressive and he was also horrendous as a rookie in 2020 with a 40.5 PFF grade in 16 starts.

Glasgow is gone and the Broncos’ depth on the interior is very suspect, so the Broncos don’t have a choice but to start Cushenberry again, but he could easily continue struggling. The additions of McGlinchey and Powers and the return of Garret Bolles from injury make this offensive line better, even if McGlinchey and Powers were likely overpays who are probably just solid starters rather than real game changers. With Quinn Meinerz returning, the Broncos’ could have above average play at every position except center, so this could be an above average offensive line overall.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Broncos had a deep receiving corps going into last season, but injuries hit this group as well. Expected starting wide receiver Tim Patrick went down for the season before the year even started and his expected replacement KJ Hamler played just 224 snaps in 7 games due to injuries of his own. They still had Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton as their top-2 receivers, but the latter continued not being the same since a 2020 ACL tear (69.3 PFF grade, 1.55 yards per route run) and, while the former had a good season with a 78.4 PFF grade and 2.18 yards per route run, it wasn’t enough to carry this receiving corps on his own.

Meanwhile, expected top tight end Albert Okwuegbunam played just 190 snaps in 8 games, falling down the depth chart even before getting hurt, and 3rd round rookie Greg Dulcich, who was their primary tight end for most of the season, also missed 7 games with injury, leaving blocking specialists Eric Saubert (395 total snaps) and Eric Tomlinson (407 total snaps) to play outsized roles, particularly in the passing game, where they averaged just 0.79 yards per route run between the two of them.

Things should be better this season. Tim Patrick returns and the Broncos added Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims in the 2nd round of the draft as extra insurance. Courtland Sutton has bounce back potential another year removed from his injury, while Jerry Jeudy still remains a former 2020 first round pick who is only in his age 24 season, so he could have further upside. Meanwhile, tight ends Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich should both be healthier than a year ago and ex-Saints tight end Adam Trautman was acquired in a trade for a late round pick as extra competition at the position.

Jeudy will likely remain the leader of this group and could easily take another step forward in his 4th season in the league, especially if he can get a little bit better quarterback play. Prior to his impressive yards per route run average last season, Jeudy averaged 1.66 yards per route run as a rookie and 1.85 yards per route run in his second season, so he’s been pretty good since entering the league and has taken a little bit of a step forward in each season in the league. Durability has been a bit of a problem for him in the past two seasons, with nine games missed total, and he’s never played more than 806 snaps in a season with an average of 644 snaps played per season, but if he can stay healthy and get even decent quarterback play, he has a huge upside, given how young he still is and how much talent he’s shown already.

Sutton is only going into his age 28 season and could have some bounce back potential, but his career best year in 2019 prior to his injury is now 4 years ago and that remains the only above average season of his career. He had a 72/1112/6 slash line that season with an average of 2.08 yards per route run, but excluding his 2020 season which was almost completely lost to injury, his 2nd best yards per route run average in his 5-year career was last season, as he averaged 1.32 yards per route run as a 2nd round rookie in 2018 and 1.43 yards per route run in his first year back from the injury in 2021. He might be a little bit better in 2023 than he was in 2022, especially if he gets better quarterback play, but I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly find his 2019 form again.

Tim Patrick should remain the #3 receiver in his return from injury, although the addition of Mims in the second round of the draft adds some confusion to the situation. Prior to his injury, Patrick had an average of 1.59 yards per route run and slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 respectively in his previous two seasons and, while he’s now going into his age 30 season, he’s also a full year removed from his injury, so he has a good chance to bounce back and play at least close to the level he was playing at before his injury.

That would leave Mims in a reserve role as the #4 receiver, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Broncos also still have KJ Hamler, whose career has been injury riddled thus far, missing 27 out of a possible 50 games missed, with just 10 games played in the past two seasons, while averaging just 1.15 yards per route run in his career in limited action. However, he was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and he’s only in his age 24 season, so he could still have some untapped upside if he can stay healthy.

At tight end, Greg Dulcich is likely to remain the starter, after showing promise as a receiver as a 3rd round rookie in 2022, averaging 1.30 yards per route run, a decent amount for a tight end, although he did struggle mightily as a blocker. He has the upside to take a step forward in year two and the Broncos should get a healthier season out of him. Albert Okwuegbunam came into last season with a lot of promise, after the 2020 4th round pick averaged 2.03 yards per route run in limited action in his first two seasons in the league, but he lost his starting job last season even before getting hurt and he struggled with a 55.4 PFF grade and a 0.69 yards per route run average on the year.

Okwuegbunam should be healthier this year and he’s only in his age 25 season, but the addition of Adam Trautman, who was with Sean Payton in New Orleans, suggests the new coaching staff isn’t that high on him and, at the very least, I would expect him to be behind Dulcich for passing down snaps and targets. Trautman was primarily a blocking tight end in his three seasons in New Orleans, but the 2020 3rd round pick has also averaged 1.20 yards per route run in his career, including 1.49 last season, so he’s a decent all-around tight end who has a good chance to earn a significant role as the #2 tight end ahead of Okwuegbunam, a role he would likely fare well in. The Broncos also added veteran blocking specialist Chris Manhertz, who has just 24 career catches in 101 games and a career average of 0.55 yards per route run, but who has finished above 60 on PFF in run blocking grade in five straight seasons. Overall, this should be a noticeably improved receiving corps compared to a year ago.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Broncos also lost their featured running back Javonte Williams for the season after a torn ACL in week 4 last season. In his absence, backup running back Melvin Gordon struggled mightily, averaging 3.53 YPC on 90 carries, before getting released and replaced with mid-season free agent Latavius Murray, who ended up leading the team with 160 carries, which he took for a decent 4.39 YPC average and 5 touchdowns. Murray is no longer with the team, but the Broncos are expecting to get Javonte Williams back relatively early in the season, if not week 1 and they also added free agent Samaje Perine on a 2-year, 7.5 million dollar deal, not an insignificant amount of money for a running back, especially a backup running back.

Prior to his injury, Williams came into last season with a lot of upside. A 2nd round pick, Williams rushed for 903 yards and 4 touchdowns on 203 carries (4.45 YPC) as a rookie, while adding a 1.21 yards per route run average, and he was expected to play a bigger role in year two, which he was on his way to before injury, with 63 touches in about three and a half games. The Broncos may limit his usage in his first year back from injury though and Perine is a more than capable backup that the Broncos spent decent money on, so he could take a big chunk of the touches, especially if Williams isn’t playing his best upon his return.

Perine hasn’t surpassed 100 carries in a season since his rookie year in Washington in 2017, when the 4th round pick averaged just 3.45 YPC, leading to him subsequently falling out of the rotation, bouncing around several teams, and totaling just 13 carries in a 2-year span, before landing with the Bengals as a backup in 2020, with whom he’s averaged 4.42 YPC on 213 carries over the past three seasons, making three starts when needed in place of an injured Joe Mixon. With Williams’ health being questionable, Perine could see more carries this season than he did in any of his seasons with the Bengals and he’s also a decent pass catcher (1.11 career yards per route run), who figures to be involved in that aspect of the game as well. He’s probably much more suited to a significant role now than he was as a rookie, so I would expect him to at least be decent.

Aside from adding Perine, the Broncos don’t seem too worried about Williams missing time, as the rest of this running back group is pretty thin, which would leave them without a capable #2 back behind Perine if Williams wasn’t ready for the start of the year. Aside from Williams and Perine, the other three running backs on this roster are 2022 6th round pick Tyler Badie (just two touches as a rookie), 2020 undrafted free agent Tony Jones (77 career touches), and undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin, none of whom seem to have any real potential. Williams’ return boosts this backfield and Perine is a solid backup as well, but Williams’ health is a question mark and their depth behind Perine is very suspect.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Broncos were actually pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball last season, ranking 10th in defensive DVOA, which is impressive because, while the Broncos’ didn’t quite have as many injuries on defense as they did on offense, they still had a lot of defensive injuries, ranking 4th in adjusted games lost to injury on defense, while ranking 2nd on offense. One of their biggest injury losses was edge defender Randy Gregory, who was a big free agent signing last off-season on a 5-year, 70 million dollar deal and who made a pretty big impact in his limited playing time, with a 76.9 PFF grade and a 17.5% pressure rate, though injuries limited him to just 187 total snaps in six games.

Not being available has been a theme for Gregory in his career, as the former 2nd round pick of the Cowboys has played in just 44 of a possible 130 games in his eight seasons in the league, maxing out at 457 snaps played in a season, due to injuries and suspensions. Gregory’s off-the-field problems seem to be behind him and he’s a highly talented pass rusher with a 13.2% pressure rate for his career, including 14.6% over the past three seasons, receiving a pass rush grade from PFF of 75 or higher in all three of those seasons.

However, Gregory is now going into his age 31 season, he’s not nearly as good against the run as he is as a pass rusher, which primarily limits him to sub package snaps, and it’s unclear if he can hold up over a full season, even as a situational pass rusher who doesn’t play the snap count that an every down player would. The Broncos should be able to expect more snaps out of him this season than last season and he has a high upside, but he comes with a lot of question marks and downside.

The Broncos also got good play out of Bradley Chubb for a stretch last season, with Chubb posting a 74.9 grade on PFF on 408 snaps in 8 games, while totaling 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate, but he was sent to the Dolphins at the trade deadline for the first round pick the Broncos eventually gave up to acquire Sean Payton. With Chubb traded and Gregory hurt, the Broncos really lacked at the edge defender position down the stretch last season. Baron Browning (569 snaps) was the best of the rest as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run, leading to him finishing with just a 55.3 PFF grade overall in the first season of his career at the edge defender position, after the 2021 3rd round pick spent his rookie season at off ball linebacker.

Second round rookie Nik Bonnito (357 snaps) also struggled against the run and didn’t have nearly as much success as Browning as a pass rusher, with a middling 10.1% pressure rate, leading to a 52.4 overall PFF grade, while 2021 7th round pick Jonathon Cooper (443 snaps) was the opposite, only getting a 9.5% pressure rate but performing pretty well against the run (66.7 PFF grade), similar to his rookie season when he played 457 snaps, had just a 8.7% pressure rate, but received a 74.8 PFF grade for his run defense. All three of Browning, Bonnito, and Cooper return for the 2023 season and they are all relatively young still and have the upside to be better this season, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Broncos also added veteran Frank Clark on a 1-year, 5.45 million dollar deal and he’ll have a role as well, probably a pretty significant one, given his contract and how questionable the rest of this group is, whether due to injury or inexperience. Clark was a 2nd round pick by the Seahawks in 2015 and was very effective in his final three seasons in Seattle from 2016-2018, totaling 33 sacks, 28 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 47 games, leading to the Chiefs trading a 1st and 2nd round pick to acquire him and give him a 5-year, 104 million dollar contract, after the Seahawks had franchise tagged him earlier in the off-season.

Clark spent four seasons in Kansas City, but didn’t consistently match the level of effectiveness he showed in Seattle, totaling 23.5 sacks, 41 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 58 games. He stayed on the team for four seasons despite his big salary because of some post-season heroics, but, eventually the Chiefs gave up on him and moved on from the final year and 21 million of his contract this off-season.

Clark now heads into his age 30 season, with four straight seasons on PFF in the 50s or 60, so he’s more of a snap eater than an impact player at this point on his career, but he figures to have at least a rotational role and he should be at least decent in that role, unless he declines significantly on the wrong side of 30. This isn’t a great edge defender group and there is a lot of downside here, but there is also a lot of upside if the young players can take the next step and if Randy Gregory can stay healthy for most of the season and avoid declining now that he’s on the other side of 30.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Dre’Mont Jones was the Broncos’ top interior pass rusher a year ago, totaling 6.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate, and he left this off-season to sign a 3-year, 51.53 million dollar deal with the Seahawks, but he struggled mightily against the run, with a 41.8 PFF grade in run defense, and the Broncos signed ex-Cardinal Zach Allen to a 3-year, 45.75 million dollar deal in free agency to replace Jones, which could easily prove to be an upgrade.

In total, Allen had 5.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate last season, but what set his 2022 performance apart from Jones’ is that he held up against the run as well, with a 67.4 run defense grade, leading to Allen receiving a 72.7 overall grade from PFF. The concern with Allen is that he’s a one-year wonder, as the 2019 3rd round pick was not nearly as good in his first two seasons as a starter in 2020 and 2021, when he finished with 54.9 and 58.7 grades from PFF on snap counts of 505 and 684 respectively.

Allen especially struggled against the run in those two seasons, but his run defense took a big step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2022 and his pass rush improved from his first two seasons in the league as well, after totaling 6 sacks, 14 hits, and a 6.4% pressure rate in those two seasons combined. Allen could prove to be a one-year wonder, but he was a relatively high draft pick and he’s still relatively young, only entering his age 26 season in 2023, so there’s a higher than average chance that he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down player. Even if he regresses a little bit, he should still be a more well-rounded option than the player he’s replacing Dre’Mont Jones.

The Broncos also lost DeShawn Williams this off-season, but he received just a 55.4 grade from PFF on 598 snaps, so he won’t really be missed that much. To replace him, the Broncos will likely give more playing time to second year players Matt Henningsen, who played 230 snaps as a 6th round rookie last season, and Eyioma Uwazurike, who played 165 snaps as a 4th round rookie last season. Both were above average run defenders in their limited action and can at least see base package snaps, but they combined for just a 3.0% pressure rate and, while they could take a step forward in year two, they also might not be as effective against the run in a larger role.

The Broncos also bring back veteran Mike Purcell, who is also much more of a base package player, with a 3.5% career pressure rate and four straight seasons above 65 on PFF against the run. He’s also going into his age 32 season and could see his run defense decline over the next couple seasons and, even in the past four seasons, he’s only averaged 31.1 snaps per game in 49 games (381 snaps per season), so he’s not really a candidate for a larger role and, in fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see his snap count go down from last year’s career high of 529, most in ten seasons in the league.

DJ Jones will likely be the primary sub package rusher inside opposite Zach Allen, a role he fared pretty well in last season next to Dre’Mont Jones, with a 8.6% pressure rate. Jones’ run defense has been pretty inconsistent in his career, but he’s finished above 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in four straight seasons, with a total pressure rate of 6.9% over those four seasons, and, only in his age 28 season, he could continue being a reliable sub package pass rusher. Outside of Zach Allen, the Broncos don’t have any other interior defenders who can both hold up against the run and rush the passer consistently and Allen is a one-year wonder, but the Broncos do have some interesting rotational pieces that fit together decently and Allen has the upside to remain an above average every down player going forward, so this isn’t a bad group.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Broncos’ linebacking corps were one of the Broncos’ top positions of strengths last season. Every down linebackers Alex Singleton (51.4 snaps per game) and Josey Jewell (63.5 snaps per game) finished with PFF grades of 79.1 and 71.7 respectively and, while they missed six games with injury between the two of them, top reserve Jonas Griffth was decent on 336 snaps. This season, all three of the aforementioned players return and the Broncos added even further to their depth by selecting Arkansas’ Drew Sanders in the 3rd round of the draft.

Unfortunately, one big area for concern is that Singleton might not be nearly as good this season, not only going into his age 30 season, but also being a complete one-year wonder, receiving PFF grades of 58.9 and 52.4 in his first two seasons as a starter in 2020 and 2021 respectively, playing the run decently, but struggling mightily in coverage. He was better in both aspects in 2022, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to repeat that, especially now that he is getting up there in age.

Josey Jewell has a much better chance to repeat last season’s performance, going into his age 29 season, with at least one other above average season as an every down player, playing 1,011 snaps and finishing with a 68.1 PFF grade in 2020, with a lost season due to injury in 2021 in between. He’s not the most proven player, but, if he stays healthy again, I would expect him to remain at least a solid every down player, one who is equally effective in coverage and against the run.

Griffith should also remain a solid reserve, as the 2020 undrafted free agent also held up pretty well on 255 snaps in the first defensive action of his career in 2021 too. Sanders might have more upside long-term, which is probably why the Broncos drafted him, but Griffith could remain the primary backup over him as a rookie. Sanders is also versatile enough to line up outside in certain situations, but the Broncos are deep enough at the edge defender position that it would be tough for him to earn a consistent role there as well. This is a solid position group and a deep one at that, but Singleton is a candidate for a serious regression.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Another key injury on this defense last season was the loss of starting cornerback Ronald Darby, after he posted a 71.1 PFF grade in 280 snaps in five games. Darby’s absence was somewhat mitigated though, by the play of 4th round rookie Damarri Mathis, who made 11 starts and finished with a 65.6 PFF grade. The Broncos added another cornerback in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, taking Iowa’s Riley Moss, but Mathis is probably the favorite to keep the starting job with Darby now no longer on the team. Mathis starting would then leave Moss as a reserve and a long-term developmental project.

Moss could end up being a long-term replacement for slot cornerback K’Waun Williams, who is going into his age 32 season. Williams still received a 67.2 grade from PFF last season on 596 snaps, finishing above 65 on PFF like he has in all 8 healthy seasons in the league (he missed all of 2016), but he still missed 3 games with injury in 2022, bringing his total games missed up to 41 in nine seasons in the league, never once playing more than 15 games, and he hasn’t posted a PFF grade over 70 since 2019, after finishing above 70 in four of his first five healthy seasons in the league. He’s clearly slowing down, even if he’s still a middling player for now. He could remain a solid player in 2023, but his best days are probably behind him, he has durability problems, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined even further.

If Moss ends up on the slot long-term and Mathis develops into a solid starter outside long-term, that would give the Broncos a trio of talented young cornerbacks, led by top cornerback Patrick Surtain, who has already developed into one of the best players in the league at his position in just two seasons in the league. The 9th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Broncos, Surtain wasn’t spectacular as a rookie, with a 66.1 PFF grade overall on 900 snaps, but he had a 71.4 PFF grade from week 8 on and continued improving into his second season in the league, finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked cornerback overall with a 86.8 PFF grade.

Surtain is still relatively inexperienced and only has one elite season under his belt, but he’s also only going into his age 23 season and it’s clear that his long-term ceiling is one of the consistently top few cornerbacks in the league, if not the top few defensive players in the league. It’s possible he could regress a little bit in 2023 after such a dominant 2022 campaign, but he should remain one of the better cornerbacks in the league at the very least.

Top safety Justin Simmons also missed 5 games with injury last season, recording a 70.7 PFF grade on 808 snaps in 12 games when he was healthy. That’s about in line with how he’s played throughout most of his career, as the 2016 3rd round pick developed into one of the better safeties in the league earlier in his career and has stayed one of them ever since, finishing above 70 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, dating back to his second season in the league in 2017. There’s some mild concern with Simmons now going into his age 30 season and coming off of his lowest graded season on PFF since 2018, but even if his best days are behind him, I like his chances of remaining at least an above average safety in 2023 and, even at less than his best, Simmons is obviously still a very capable player.

Fellow starting safety Kareem Jackson’s age is an even bigger concern, as he now heads into his age 35 season, but he did remain a decent starter last season with a 64.5 PFF grade. However, that’s a far cry from his prime, when he finished above 70 five times in seven seasons from 2014-2020, including four seasons over 80, Jackson’s abilities could fall off a cliff at any point at this stage of his career, and he had a pretty bad year in 2021, when he had a 52.0 PFF grade, before last year’s middling year. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Jackson was a liability this season and his upside is probably only remaining a capable starter. Fortunately, the Broncos seemingly have a ready replacement in 2021 5th round pick Caden Sterns, who could easily take Jackson’s job at some point this season if he struggles.

Sterns has only made five career starts in two seasons in the league and only received a 59.2 PFF grade on 311 snaps as a rookie, but that improved significantly to 76.7 on 274 snaps in year two, filling in very well as an injury replacement for Justin Simmons. He probably wouldn’t be quite that good as a full season starter and he’s still very unproven, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him at least be an upgrade over Jackson if he took his spot in the starting lineup. This is a pretty good secondary, led by Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons, with promising young depth (Moss and Sterns) behind aging veteran starters (Williams and Jackson) and no clear weaknesses and good depth as a result.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Broncos were solid defensively last season (10th in DVOA), despite some injuries, and they look likely to be at least average on that side of the ball again, if not above average, so if their offense (29th in DVOA) can improve significantly and be at least decent, this team could be pretty competitive. Nine of their 12 losses last season came by one score, as opposed to four wins by one score, and if their offense is even somewhat better in 2023, at least a few of those close games should go the other way. I think there’s a good chance that happens, even if quarterback Russell Wilson is past his prime.

They should have better play calling with Sean Payton coming in. Wilson should bounce back at least somewhat. They should be much healthier, after being the 2nd most banged up offense in the league last season, with most notably with left tackle Garret Bolles, starting wide receiver Tim Patrick, and starting running back Javonte Williams missing all or most of the season. They also added a pair of starters in free agency on big contracts, left guard Ben Powers and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, which gives them an infusion of talent, albeit at a steep price.

All in all, I wouldn’t expect the Broncos to be a playoff team in the loaded AFC, but they have a good chance to be a lot more competitive than a year ago and they weren’t as far from being a .500 team as their record suggested last season, so I would expect that they will at least be in the mix for a wild card spot, even if they ultimately fall short. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC West

Arizona Cardinals 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 21, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Quarterback

The Cardinals are just a season removed from a post-season appearance, securing a wild card spot in 2021 with a final record of 11-6. However, they were never as good as their record suggested that year, benefiting significantly from a +12 turnover margin (4th best in the NFL), which is not predictive year-to-year, and ranking just 15th in DVOA. That suggested the Cardinals would decline in the win column in 2022, especially when you also take into account all of the Cardinals’ off-season losses and the fact that many of their key players were on the wrong side of 30 and, as a result, were strong candidates to decline significantly. However, things were even worse than expected for the Cardinals last season, as they had a rash of injuries, 4th most in the league in terms of adjusted games lost, leading to the Cardinals being one of the worst teams in the league, finishing at 4-13 and ranking 29th in DVOA.

The Cardinals will probably be healthier this season in terms of the overall amount of games lost to injury, but they were a mediocre team that was likely to decline significantly last season even before all of the injury absences, they suffered even more personnel losses this off-season, and several of their key injured players from a year ago could miss the start of the season or not be at 100% in their first season back, most notably Kyler Murray, who went down with a torn ACL in week 14, putting him up against the clock to return for week 1, which will be less than 9 months after the injury.

For the Cardinals to have any chance of being remotely competitive this season, they will need Murray to return early in the season and not be limited, but that seems unlikely, especially considering how much he depends on his athleticism and running ability, which might not return to full strength right away. On top of that, even before the injury last season, Murray was not at his best, finishing with a 67.1 PFF grade that was his lowest since his rookie season in 2019, after back-to-back seasons over 80 in 2020 (82.8) and 2021 (84.0).

After completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 50 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions with 1242 yards and 16 touchdowns on 221 carries (5.62 YPC) in 2020 and 2021 combined, Murray saw those numbers drop to 66.4% completion, 6.07 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions with 418 yards and 3 touchdowns on 67 carries (6.24 YPC) in 2022. Those big seasons in 2020 and 2021 led to the Cardinals extending Murray last off-season on a 5-year, 230.5 million dollar deal that makes him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary.

Murray is still only in his age 26 season and could bounce back to his best form someday and be worth that extension, which doesn’t even technically start until next season, but it seems unlikely that bounce back will happen this season, a big problem for a team that has had a lot of trouble keeping talent around Murray and his big salary. The Cardinals also didn’t really do much to address the backup quarterback position, even with Murray likely to miss at least some time early in the year, only adding veteran journeyman Jeff Driskel and 5th round rookie Clayton Tune to compete with incumbent backups Colt McCoy and David Blough.

McCoy is likely to stay in the primary backup role, which he’s served in the past two seasons as well. He was impressive with a 101.4 QB rating on 99 attempts as Murray’s backup in 2021, but that fell to a 76.6 QB rating on 132 attempts in 2022 and he now heads into his age 37 season with a career QB rating of 79.9 on 1,220 attempts (36 starts). He’s not a bad backup and he’s probably the best option the Cardinals have, but he would likely struggle if forced into significant action again.

Driskel and Blough, meanwhile, have career QB ratings of 80.5 on 365 pass attempts and 67.1 on 242 pass attempts respectively, while Tune would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant rookie year action. It will most likely be McCoy, but whoever starts in Murray’s absence early in the year is likely to struggle, and then when Murray returns he is unlikely to be at his best. Murray has a high upside, but this isn’t an enviable quarterback situation at the moment.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Probably the Cardinals’ biggest off-season loss was top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He only played in 9 games last season due to suspension, but averaged 1.98 yards per route run and had a 64/717/3 slash line that extrapolated to 121/1354/6 over 17 games. Despite that, it made some sense for the rebuilding Cardinals to look into moving Hopkins this off-season, as he was owed 19.45 million for his age 31 season in 2023, but it was a surprise that the Cardinals couldn’t get anything for him in a trade and it seems like their decision to cut him just to get out of his salary had more to do with Hopkins not wanting to be there anymore than it did with the Cardinals feeling it was in the best interest of their football team to move on from him.

The Cardinals also lost veteran AJ Green to retirement this off-season and, while he only played 554 snaps and averaged just 0.65 yards per route run, his departure just leaves the Cardinals even thinner at the wide receiver position. Without Hopkins and Green, the Cardinals will hope for healthier seasons from Marquise Brown (782 snaps in 12 games) and Rondale Moore (458 snaps in 8 games), while Greg Dotrch (512 snaps in 16 games) competes with 3rd round rookie Michael Wilson for the 3rd receiver job.

The Cardinals surrendered a first round pick to acquire Brown last off-season, swapping the 23rd pick to Baltimore for Brown and the 100th pick, implying they view him as a #1 wide receiver, but he hasn’t consistently shown that type of ability in four seasons in the league. He has averaged just 1.63 yards per route run, with his season high of 1.81 yards per route run coming back in his rookie season in 2019, and his career low 1.44 yards per route run coming in his first season in Arizona in 2022, when he had a 67/709/3 slash line on 107 targets (6.63 yards per target) in 12 games.

Brown is a former first round pick who is only in his age 26 season, so he still could get better going forward, but he’s running out of time to develop into a true #1 wide receiver, after being more of a low end #1/high end #2 throughout his career. It’ll be interesting to see what the Cardinals do with his contract, with Brown going into the final year of his rookie deal and likely expecting a top of the market deal, given that the Cardinals traded a first round pick for him and now have money freed up from releasing Hopkins. The Cardinals might not have a choice but to double down on their decision to give up a first round pick for him by giving him a top of market deal, given the lack of other promising young players on this roster to give their money to.

Rondale Moore, meanwhile, is a former 2021 second round pick who is expected to be the #2 receiver. He essentially served in that role last season before getting hurt, as his healthy stint last season coincided with Hopkins suspension. Moore had a decent 41/414/1 slash line in 8 games, but averaged just 1.47 yards per route run, down from 1.64 yards per route run in a more limited role as a rookie. Moore is still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league, so if he can stay healthy, he could be a solid #2 receiver, but he could also remain middling at best or get hurt again.

Greg Dortch is probably the favorite for the #3 receiver job, but he’s a pretty underwhelming option, as the 2019 undrafted free agent averaged just 1.33 yards per route run in a part-time role last season, in the first significant action of his career. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the rookie Michael Wilson overtakes him for the job by mid-season, though Wilson would likely have growing pains and his own struggles if forced into a significant role in year one. Wilson could also find his way into a significant role if injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart, with the only experienced reserve option on the team being Zach Pascal, who has averaged just 1.13 yards per route run in six seasons in the league.

At tight end, the Cardinals will get Zach Ertz back from injury at some point, after a torn ACL ended his 2022 season in week 10, but he also might not be ready for the start of the season and, even if he is, he could easily not be at his best, especially given that he is now heading into his age 33 season. Ertz already seemed to be slowing down even before the injury, averaging just 1.20 yards per route run over the past three seasons, including just 1.08 in 2022 before getting hurt, down from 1.83 in his first seven years in the league, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further. Never a great run blocker, if Ertz declines further as a pass catcher, he would probably become a liability for this team.

The Cardinals used a 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Trey McBride, likely as a future replacement for Ertz, but he struggled as a rookie, averaging just 0.84 yards per route run, struggling as a run blocker, and doing minimal with his opportunity in Ertz’s absence (26/241/1 on 36 targets in 8 games without Ertz). He has a good chance to take a step forward in year two in 2023 and, even when Ertz is active, McBride will likely play more than a typical #2 tight end would, but he has a long way to go to become even a starting caliber tight end. This is an underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Along with DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Zach Ertz, the Cardinals also had a trio of week 1 starters on the offensive line who were over 30 last season, left guard Justin Pugh, center Rodney Hudson, and right tackle Kelvin Beachum. Pugh and Hudson were limited to 263 snaps and 303 snaps respectively by injury and are no longer with the team in 2023, while Beachum remains and now left tackle DJ Humphries heads into his age 30 season, on an offensive line that still has a lot of problems.

The Cardinals at least used a first round pick on Ohio State’s Paris Johnson to replace Justin Pugh at left guard and he figures to be an immediate upgrade, with Pugh posting a middling 61.0 grade before getting hurt last year and his primary replacement Max Garcia finishing at 54.5. Johnson also has the versatility to kick outside to either tackle spot if needed, which could ultimately be his long-term position. The Cardinals also signed veteran journeyman Elijah Wilkinson in free agency to give them some much needed depth at guard with Max Garcia also no longer on the team. Wilkinson is unspectacular, but he’s made 36 starts in 6 seasons in the league and is not bad depth, with grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF in every season in the league.

At center, on the other hand, the Cardinals don’t have an obvious starter, not only losing Hudson this off-season, but not retaining the players who started in Hudson’s absence last season, Sean Harlow and Billy Price, who struggled mightily anyway. To replace them, the Cardinals gave a 2-year, 4.6 million dollar deal to Hjalte Froholdt, a 2019 4th round pick who made the first 6 starts of his career last season, performing alright (61.4 PFF grade), but not well enough to suggest he should be locked in as a season long starter. The Cardinals might not have a choice but to use him in that role though, with their next best options being Leticus Smith, a 2022 6th round pick who struggled mightily on 210 snaps at guard as a rookie, and Jon Gaines, a 4th round rookie out of UCLA who would also be converting from guard. Center figures to be a position of weakness for this team again in 2023.

Humphries is also coming off of an injury plagued season, limited to 575 snaps in 8 games, and now returns to his age 30 season, which means he could be on the decline. He also has a pretty extensive injury history, playing fewer than nine games in half of his eight seasons in the league, with 47 total games missed. The Cardinals didn’t really miss Humphries much last season, as swing tackle Josh Jones had a 75.8 PFF grade in 9 starts in his absence, but Jones had a 46.7 PFF grade in 12 starts in 2021 in the only other extended starting experience of his career and, while the 2020 3rd round pick could have turned a corner and, as a result, will easily remain a solid starter if forced back into action, the Cardinals are still happy to have Humphries back. Humphries has finished above 70 on PFF in four of the past six seasons, including 72.3 last season, maxing out at 88.3 in 2020, so, even if he does decline, he should remain at least a solid starter, though one who would easily miss more time with injury, given his history.

Right tackle Kelvin Beachum could also decline this season, as he is even older than Humphries, going into his age 34 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, finishing above 60 on PFF yet again last season, like he had in each of his first 10 seasons in the league prior to last season. In fact, his 70.6 PFF grade last season was actually his highest since the 2014 season. He probably won’t be quite as good again in 2023, but he could still remain at least a capable starter, assuming his abilities don’t drop off completely.

Right guard Will Hernandez is the only returning starter who isn’t going into his age 30 season or older. He re-signed on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal with the Cardinals this off-season, after signing a one-year deal to come over from the Giants last off-season and posting a 65.4 PFF grade in his first season in Arizona in 2022. That’s around how he’s played throughout his career, mostly being a middling starter, making 69 starts and receiving a PFF grade in the 50s or 60s in all five seasons in the league. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Hernandez in 2023. He’s a decent starter on an offensive line with a lot of questions.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Lead back James Conner returns, but they have a serious depth problem behind him, which is a problem because Conner has missed at least two games in all six seasons in the league, missing 20 games total. Conner has averaged 13.8 carries per game over the past five seasons with a 4.17 YPC and 44 touchdowns, but that’s not an overly impressive average and Cardinals may need even more carries than that from him this season, given their lack of depth, which could wear him down and make him less effective. Conner also figures to have a big role in the passing game, after catching 207 passes in 64 games in the past five seasons, with a 1.18 yards per route run average, unspectacular, but decent for a running back. The Cardinals will be counting on Conner for a lot this season.

Behind Conner on the depth chart, the Cardinals have career journeyman and special teamer Corey Clement, who has never surpassed 90 touches in a season in six seasons in the league, 2022 6th round pick Keaontay Ingram, who saw just 31 touches as a rookie, 2020 undrafted free agent Ty’Son Williams, who has 45 career touches, and undrafted rookie Emari Demercado. Any of them could wind up as the #2 back behind Conner and, while Conner figures to be the feature back, they will need at least a few carries per game from a backup running back and, if Conner’s injury history is any indication, one of these guys is likely going to have to start at some point this season. Conner is a solid starter, but he’s an unspectacular one and injury prone one and the Cardinals’ depth situation behind him is as bad as any team in the league.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Cardinals also lost key players on defense this off-season, including interior defenders JJ Watt and Zach Allen, the former of whom retired ahead of what would have been his age 34 season, despite still posting a 68.3 PFF grade on 816 snaps last season, while the latter also impressed with a 72.7 grade on 660 snaps last season and, as a result, ended up signing with the Broncos on a 3-year, 45.75 million dollar deal as a free agent. The Cardinals do still have Jeremiah Ledbetter (275 snaps) and Leki Fotu (499 snaps), but they struggled last season with PFF grades of 43.4 and 32.4 respectively.

The Cardinals will also be hoping for more from Rashard Lawrence, a 2020 4th round pick who was playing a significant role for the first time in his career when he went down for the season last year (112 snaps in 5 games), and they signed veterans Carlos Watkins and LJ Collier to cheap one-year deals. Ledbetter, Fotu, Lawrence, Watkins, and Collier will all compete for playing time, but all seem like very underwhelming options. Jonathan Ledbetter went undrafted in 2019 and had played just 61 defensive snaps in his career prior to struggling in a limited role last season. Leki Fotu was a 4th round pick in 2020, but has received a PFF grade of 41 or lower in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 385 snaps per season.

Lawrence barely played in his first two seasons in the league, seeing 385 nondescript snaps total, before continuing his nondescript play into a slightly larger per game role last season prior to injury. Carlos Watkins is a 6-year veteran who has mostly been a mediocre rotational player in his career, maxing out at 542 snaps in a season (2020) and a 60.8 PFF grade (2021), and is now going into his age 30 season. LJ Collier was a first round pick by the Seahawks in 2019, but proved to be a massive bust, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of just 270 snaps per season, and is already in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to get significantly better going forward. This is a very weak position group with no clear starting caliber players.

Grade: C-

Edge Defenders

The Cardinals’ top edge defender a year ago, Markus Golden (781 snaps) is another pretty key player who was on the wrong side of 30 last season and is no longer with the team, a pretty big loss as he had a decent 65.3 PFF grade across a large snap count. To replace him, the Cardinals used a 2nd round pick on LSU’s BJ Ojulari and will give larger roles to a pair of 2022 3rd round picks, Cameron Thomas and Myjai Sanders. Thomas was the better of the two as rookies, with a 69.9 PFF grade on 237 snaps and a 12.3% pressure rate, as opposed to 260 and a 10.1% pressure rate for Sanders, but both have the upside to develop into solid starters and both could take a step forward in year two in a bigger role.

The Cardinals also still have Dennis Gardeck, a career special teamer who has been decent on snap counts of 210 and 173 over the past two seasons, in the first even somewhat significant defensive action of the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career, and Victor Dimukeje, a 2021 6th round pick who was underwhelming with a 57.0 grade on 251 snaps in the first somewhat significant action of his career in 2023. This is a very thin and inexperienced position group, but they at least have a few young players with some upside, even if it’s unlikely all three will make good on that upside this season.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Cardinals didn’t make a lot of additions this off-season, but they did add free agent linebacker Kyzir White on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. White has posted grades of 66.5 and 65.0 on PFF over the past two seasons with the Chargers and Eagles as more or less an every down player, playing all possible 34 games and averaging 53.6 snaps played per game, holding up against the run and in coverage, and he’s needed in Arizona because the Cardinals no longer have Ben Niemann (484 snaps) and Tanner Vallejo (282 snaps), who saw roles at linebacker last season, while hybrid defensive back/linebacker Isaiah Simmons is expected to move to defensive back full-time, leaving the Cardinals in need of another every down linebacker next to holdover Zaven Collins (1,025 snaps), which White will be.

Collins wasn’t as good as White last season, but the 2021 1st round pick wasn’t too bad in the first starting action of his career (59.8 PFF grade), after flashing potential with a 69.3 grade on 220 snaps as a rookie, and could still get better in year three, only his age 24 season. He and White should be a decent every down starting linebacker duo, but depth is a big concern, with special teamer Ezekiel Turner (144 career defensive snaps in five seasons in the league) and 5th round rookie Owen Pappoe likely to be their top reserves. That hurts their overall grade at this position, as they would likely have a big liability in the starting lineup if either White or Collins got hurt.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Perhaps part of the reason the Cardinals are moving Isaiah Simmons to defensive back full-time is because the Cardinals have a big need at the cornerback position, where Simmons can man the slot. Byron Murphy was their top cornerback a year ago and, even though he was limited to 595 snaps in 9 games by injury, he will be missed because his 66.7 PFF grade made him one of just three Cardinals to see any action at cornerback and finish above 60 on PFF, with the other two being Simmons and Antonio Hamilton, who only played 420 snaps, making 5 starts.

Hamilton will get the first chance at replacing Murphy, but the 420 snaps he played last season were a career high and, while he’s been decent in limited action, he’s also already going into his age 30 season and could easily struggle in his first season as a full-time starter. He would start next to Marco Wilson, who has started 26 of 28 games played over the past two seasons, with an average of 54.5 snaps played per game, but the 2021 5th round pick has struggled with grades of 52.9 and 55.3 and he is no guarantee to be any better in his 2023, even if he does have the potential to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year three.

The Cardinals also signed veteran Rashad Fenton in free agency. A 6th round pick by the Chiefs in 2019, Fenton flashed a lot of potential as a part-time player in his first three seasons in the league, but struggled as a starter in the first half of the 2022 season, before getting benched and traded to the Falcons, with whom he barely played. Fenton is only going into his age 26 season and has some bounce back potential, but he’s never played more than 531 snaps in a season and might be overstretched as a full-time starter. He’ll be in the mix for a starting role, as will 3rd round rookie Garrett Williams, while 6th round rookie Kei’Trel Clark and 2022 7th round pick Christian Mathew, who struggled on 237 rookie year snaps in 2022, will compete for deep reserve roles.

As the slot cornerback, Isaiah Simmons might be the best player the Cardinals have at the cornerback position. He hasn’t lived up to the billing as the 8th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a freakishly athletic, versatile prospect with a sky high ceiling, as he struggled in his first two seasons in the league as primarily a linebacker, receiving a 59.9 PFF grade on 376 snaps as rookie and 51.0 on 1,005 snaps in his second season in 2021. However, he fared better in 2022 when he played more cornerback, receiving a 67.9 grade from PFF on 897 snaps, including a 69.9 coverage grade, and, still only in his age 25 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward now as a full-time defensive back. Even if he’s not worth where he was drafted, he could still be an above average slot cornerback, which will be useful for this defense.

Simmons could also see some action at safety, where he would also seem to be a fit, but he hasn’t played there a lot in his career and that’s one position where the Cardinals are in pretty good shape, with Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson returning as starters. Baker was a 2nd round pick by the Cardinals in 2017 and he has been an above average starter for most of his career, taking over the starting job in his second season in the league and finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including four seasons over 70, with just five total games missed due to injury. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Thompson, meanwhile, was a 4th round supplemental pick in 2019 and, after flashing potential with a 64.4 PFF grade on 607 snaps as a rookie, Thompson became a starter in year two and has started 33 of the 39 games he’s played over the past three seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 70.1, 68.2, and 65.0. Still only going into his age 25, Thompson could still have further untapped potential and, even if he doesn’t, he has a good chance to remain an above average starter. The Cardinals have paid up to keep their safeties, with Thompson on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal and Baker getting extra money tacked on to what was originally a 4-year, 59 million dollar deal after threatening a holdout this off-season. They might be a little overpaid, but they are the strength of a weak secondary and a weak defense overall.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

Despite coming off of a playoff appearance, the Cardinals were a below average team going into last season, relying on their +12 turnover margin to qualify for the post-season the year prior, losing several key players in the off-season, and having multiple key players who were over the age of 30 and who, as a result, were prime candidates to decline. Things then went from bad to worse for the Cardinals when they had the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, leading to a 4-13 record. They should be healthier this season by default, but they still have several key players who are coming off of serious injuries who might not be ready for the start of the season and/or may not be the same upon their return, including quarterback Kyler Murray.

On top of that, the Cardinals lost even more key players this off-season, with several of their key players over the age of 30 moving on, including DeAndre Hopkins, JJ Watt, and Markus Golden, as well as promising young free agents in Byron Murphy and Zach Allen, without the Cardinals really adding comparable replacements. All in all, this looks likely to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season and probably the single worst team in the league until Murray returns and somewhat resembles himself, which probably won’t be in week 1. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in NFC West

Seattle Seahawks 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 20, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Seahawks traded franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos after a decade in Seattle, seeming to signal the start of a full rebuild, with the Seahawks receiving first and second round picks in each of the next two years from Denver, as well as a trio of players, including young quarterback Drew Lock. It seemed likely that Lock, a former second round pick who was up and down throughout his stint as a starter with the Broncos (79.3 QB rating), would be given a chance to prove himself with the rebuilding Seahawks and, if he failed, the Seahawks would likely be in position to take one of the top quarterback prospects in the draft.

That was probably the Seahawks’ plan as well, but Lock struggled mightily throughout training camp and the pre-season, while long-time veteran backup Geno Smith impressed, giving the Seahawks no choice but to give the job to the veteran. From a team building strategy standpoint, it didn’t seem to be a good fit. Smith had been with the team for a couple seasons and had impressed in limited action (102.7 QB rating on 100 pass attempts), but he struggled in his previous stint as a starter with the Jets in 2013 and 2014 (74.2 QB rating in 29 starts), he was on the wrong side of 30 and, even if he could be a decent stopgap quarterback, it seemed unlikely he would be their long-term franchise quarterback and didn’t seem to fit the timeframe of a seemingly rebuilding Jets team. Smith also seemed to have a lower floor than Lock, which would reduce the Seahawks chances of getting a high draft pick.

It seemed likely that Smith would only start for a stint until he struggled and then the young Drew Lock would get his chance. Instead, what happened was one of the biggest surprises in recent memory. In his first extended chance at a starting job since 2014, Smith broke out with 69.8% completion, 7.49 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while receiving a 79.8 grade from PFF and leading the supposedly rebuilding Seahawks to a wild card berth in their first season without Wilson. Lock, meanwhile, didn’t throw a pass all season, with Smith starting all 17 games.

Despite that, the Seahawks still ended up with a top draft pick, getting back the 5th overall pick from the Broncos, who struggled mightily in Russell Wilson’s first season with the team. Smith was a free agent this off-season and, with him going into his age 33 season, there was some thought that the Seahawks might still try to take a quarterback early in the draft, rather than paying significant money to keep the veteran after just one good season. However, the Seahawks were able to work out a team friendly deal with Smith, worth 75 million over 3 years total, but just 27.3 million fully guaranteed, all in the first year, meaning the Seahawks aren’t tied to him beyond this season if he regresses.

That structure left the door open for the Seahawks to still use the #5 overall pick on a top quarterback, who would sit a year behind Smith and then take over as a cheaper, higher upside option in 2024 and beyond, but the top-3 quarterbacks all went off the board in the top-4 picks ahead of the Seahawks and it’s unclear if the Seahawks would have even wanted to take one if one had slipped to 5. Smith now will likely remain the starter for the next two seasons, barring a significant regression in 2023. I wouldn’t expect him to be as good this season as he was a year ago and he seemed to regress down the stretch last season, with a 96.0 QB rating and a 66.8 PFF grade in his final 9 starts, as opposed to 107.2 and 88.4 in his first 8, but I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly regress back to being a backup caliber quarterback either and he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter.

The Seahawks also brought back Drew Lock as a free agent on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and he will remain the backup quarterback. Lock has yet to establish himself as a starter in this league, but he’s only in his age 27 season and you could do a lot worse than him as a backup. Maybe someday he’ll do what Geno Smith did, going from a second round pick to a failed starter to a long-time backup to a late career breakout a few years from now. For now, this is Geno Smith’s job, barring injury, but Smith is good insurance to have and at a reasonable price. This is a pretty good quarterback room, even if Smith is unlikely to be quite as good again this year as he was a year ago.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Geno Smith’s surprise season was part of the reason for the Seahawks being significantly better than expected in 2022, but the Seahawks also got a lot of contributions out of their rookie class, which was a big part of their success as well. With the 9th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft that they got as part of the Wilson trade, the Seahawks selected offensive tackle Charles Cross and then later selected another offensive tackle Abraham Lucas in the third round, giving them much needed help at a position where they previously didn’t have a starter caliber player.

Neither Cross nor Lucas were spectacular as a rookie, with PFF grades of 63.7 and 68.5 respectively, but they made 17 starts and 16 starts at left tackle and right tackle respectively and, for rookies, they did an impressive job solidifying the position. That’s especially important for the Seahawks because their top tackles behind them last season were Stone Forsythe, a 2021 6th round pick who had a 37.0 grade on 122 snaps in the first real action of his career last season, and Jake Curhan, who played just 34 snaps last season, after receiving a 54.0 PFF grade on 405 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2021. Those remain their best swing tackle options for 2023, so the Seahawks will once again need Cross and Lucas to stay healthy. Both have the upside to take a step forward in year two, especially Cross, who was a top-10 pick for a reason.

The Seahawks lost a pair of starters from last year’s offensive line this off-season, center Austin Blythe (1,041 snaps) and right guard Gabe Jackson (667 snaps), but they were the Seahawks’ two worst offensive linemen a year ago, with PFF grades of 51.9 and 55.0 respectively, so they won’t really be missed. At center, the Seahawks’ replacement will actually likely be a significant upgrade, with Evan Brown coming over from the Lions on a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal that should prove to be a good value.

Brown went undrafted in 2018 and never started a game until 2021, but he started 12 games that season as an injury fill-in for center Frank Ragnow and received a 66.8 grade. In 2022, Brown went back to the bench to start the season when Ragnow returned, but Brown ended up getting a shot to start at right guard when the Lions couldn’t find a consistent starter at that position and Brown finished the season with a 64.8 PFF grade in 12 starts, 11 of which came at right guard. With the Seahawks, he’ll move back to center, which is probably his best position, but he has the versatility to kick to guard if needed and, regardless of where he plays, he should remain at least a capable starter.

At right guard, the Seahawks will be promoting backup Phil Haynes to replace Gabe Jackson, re-signing the younger Haynes on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and letting the aging Jackson walk as a free agent, ahead of his age 32 season. Jackson was already a liability last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Haynes was actually even worse. A 4th round pick in 2019, Haynes has played just 622 career snaps (5 starts), 485 of which came last season, when he received a 57.1 PFF grade, rotating with the struggling Jackson down the stretch and starting three games as well.

Haynes has never been close to a season long starter and he’s struggled even as a reserve, so he figures to be a liability, but the Seahawks don’t really have another option. They took LSU’s Anthony Bradford in the 4th round, but he would likely struggle as a rookie, as would 5th round rookie Olusegun Oluwatimi out of Michigan, a center who could move Evan Brown to guard if they wanted to go that route. Most likely, the rookies will be depth options in year one and the Seahawks figure to have one big hole on the offensive line regardless of how they line them up.

Damien Lewis is the final starter on this offensive line, entering his 4th season as the starting left guard, a job he has had since his rookie season in 2020, despite only being a 3rd round pick. Lewis impressed right away, ranking 16th among guards with a 70.2 PFF grade in 16 starts as a rookie and, while that slipped to a 57.1 PFF grade in 13 starts in an injury plagued second season in the league, he bounced back to 71.8 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2022, 13th best among guards, and, still only going into his age 26 season, he looks like he’ll be an above average starter for years to come, barring injuries. This isn’t a bad offensive line, but they don’t have any true stars, they have a big weakness at right guard, and their depth is very suspect.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another key rookie for the Seahawks last season was running back Kenneth Walker, a second round pick who finished his rookie season with 1,050 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on 228 carries (4.61 YPC), making him one of the leading candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Despite Walker’s impressive performance, the Seahawks opted to use another second round pick in this year’s draft, one of the two they had after getting an extra from the Russell WIlson trade, on another running back, UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet.

It’s a surprising move at first glance, but the Seahawks have always loved to run the ball, so adding another running back helps in that respect and Walker and Charbonnet figure to keep each other fresh. However, Charbonnet’s addition could also signal the Seahawks continuing to move in a more pass heavy direction, with Charbonnet by far being the better pass catching option of the two, with 61 catches in his final two seasons in college, while Walker had just 19 collegiate catches in his entire career and averaged just 0.67 yards per route run as a rookie.

The Seahawks already passed more last season with Geno Smith (573 times) than they ever did with Russell Wilson and adding a running back who can catch passes in addition to running the ball, a rarity of the Russell Wilson era, could be a sign that the Seahawks are continuing to head in that direction offensively. On top of that, Walker was not as effective at keeping this offense on schedule last season as you’d expect based on his yardage and his per carry average, as Walker actually ranked 2nd worst in the NFL among eligible running backs with a just 42% carry success rate.

Much of Walker’s production came on 17 carries of 15 yards or more, which resulted in 45.8% of his rushing yards, the 2nd highest percentage of yardage from 15+ yard runs in the league among running backs, which is concerning because long runs tend to be much less predictive year-to-year than carry success rate does. Outside of those 17 long runs, Walker averaged just 2.70 yards per carry last season and regularly struggled to keep this offense on schedule. Having Charbonnet to rotate with Walker, provide a change of pace, and to catch passes out of the backfield will help this offense. This is a solid backfield duo.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Another sign the Seahawks are moving in a more pass heavy direction is the addition of Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick. Smith-Njigba could have ultimately been drafted as a long-term replacement for Tyler Lockett, but Lockett is only going into his age 31 season and he’s coming off of a thousand yard season (84/1033/9) so, in the short-term Smith-Njigba gives the Seahawks a trio of wide receivers unlike any they had in the Russell Wilson era, with DK Metcalf also coming off of a thousand yard season (90/1048/6) alongside Lockett.

For Metcalf and Lockett, it was their second season with both surpassing 1000 yards receiving in the past three seasons, with the duo just narrowly missing in 2021 when Metcalf finished at 75/967/12. Overall, Lockett has surpassed 1000 yards in four straight seasons and 900 yards in five straight seasons, while missing just two games over that stretch, while Metcalf has surpassed 900 yards receiving in all four seasons in the league, with an average slash line of 77/1055/9 per season and zero missed games. In terms of yards per route run, Metcalf has averaged 1.88 for his 4-year career, while Lockett has averaged 1.97 over the past 5 seasons combined. Metcalf should remain a high level receiver for years to come, still only going into his age 26 season and, while he could start to decline this season, Lockett could still remain an above average starter even at less than his best.

The addition of Smith-Njigba to take targets away (Metcalf had 141, Lockett had 117, and no other Seahawks wide receiver had more than 42 last season) will make it tougher for Metcalf and Lockett to both surpass 1000 yards receiving again, especially with Lockett aging, but the rookie’s addition will make this group better overall, even if Lockett declines somewhat. The Seahawks also still have 2021 2nd round pick Dee Eskridge, but he’s played just 354 snaps in two seasons in the league, while averaging just 0.61 yards per route run, and the addition of Smith-Njigba will force Eskridge into a reserve role, barring injury ahead of him on the depth chart.

Tight ends also figure to remain a part of this offense, even if they don’t see as many targets as a year ago with Smith-Njigba and Charbonnet being added. The Seahawks are bringing back their top-3 tight ends, Noah Fant (659 snaps), Will Dissly (567 snaps), and Colby Parkinson (441 snaps), from a year ago and all are likely to continue seeing playing time, after all three averaged decent yards per route run averages, 1.39, 1.37, and 1.56 respectively.

Fant and Dissly have career averages of 1.52 and 1.49 yards per route run in 4 seasons and 5 seasons in the league respectively and should continue being around that number in 2023, while Parkinson saw minimal playing time in his first two seasons in the league (238 snaps) prior to last season, but was a 2020 4th round pick and could still continue playing at a similar level in 2023 as he did a year ago. With Smith-Njigba added as a #3 receiver and Zach Charbonnet added as a pass catching back, this is an even better receiving corps than a year ago, even with Tyler Lockett possibly on the decline.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Seahawks offense was solid last season, ranking 14th in offensive DVOA, their defense had more room for improvement, finishing 21st. As part of their attempt at improving defensively, the Seahawks decided to overhaul their interior defender position group. Shelby Harris (560 snaps), Al Woods (374 snaps), and Quinton Jefferson (566 snaps) were all released, saving a total of almost 17 million, while free agent Poona Ford (642 snaps) was allowed to sign with the Bills on just a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal. Woods was a solid base package run stopper, while Jefferson, Harris, and Ford combined for a 9.0% pressure rate, so they weren’t a bad group of players and the Seahawks aren’t necessarily better without them.

In their place, the Seahawks signed Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed to contracts of 3 years, 51.53 million and 2 years, 9 million respectively and used 4th and 5th round picks on Mississippi State’s Cameron Young and Michigan’s Michael Morris. Jones and Reed figure to start while Young and Morris figure to compete for reserve roles with holdover Bryan Mone (271 snaps) and another free agent acquisition Mario Edwards, a journeyman who signed for just 152.5 guaranteed. Jones is the big addition, costing the Seahawks about the same amount annually as they saved from releasing all three of the aforementioned interior defenders, but it’s hard to justify him being worth that, especially when you consider he costs as much as three useful players would have.

A 2019 3rd round pick, Jones has been an effective pass rusher in his career, with 22 sacks, 19 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate in 56 career games, including 6.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate last season, while playing a career high 715 total snaps, but he has struggled against the run for most of his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in three of four seasons in the league. Jones is still only going into his age 26 season and should remain an effective pass rusher for several more seasons, but his run defense is no guarantee to ever improve and, in fact, he’s coming off of a career worst 41.8 run defense grade just last season, so he could easily continue being a liability in that aspect, and an expensive one at that.

Jarran Reed, on the other hand, is much cheaper and a much better value. He’s not quite as good of a pass rusher, but he’s a similar player to Dre’Mont Jones, mostly struggling against the run in his career, but totaling 24 sacks, 51 hits, and a 7.5% pressure rate in 76 games over the past five seasons combined, including 2.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate last season. Reed is now going into his age 31 season and will likely start to decline soon, which is why he was so much cheaper than Jones in free agency, but he could remain a useful starting interior defender for at least another season, even if he’s not quite as good of a pass rusher as he’s been in the past.

Jones and Reed aren’t a bad starting duo and they figure to get plenty of interior pass rush, but they also both figure to struggle against the run and their depth is very suspect at the position after their off-season makeover. The rookies Young and Morris would likely struggle in significant roles as in year one, while veteran Mario Edwards and Bryan Mone would both be underwhelming options. Edwards has been in the league for eight seasons and has played pretty well at times, but he has averaged just 321 snaps played per season in his career and he is coming off of back-to-back seasons of PFF grades below 60 (50.4 and 56.0), while Mone is a 2019 undrafted free agent who has never surpassed 271 snaps played in a season and who has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league. This isn’t a bad position group, but it definitely has problems.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the big addition is second round pick Derick Hall out of Auburn. Hall will effectively take the place of middling departed veteran Bruce Irvin (60.2 PFF grade on 402 snaps in 11 games last season) in the rotation and Hall is one of three edge defenders drafted in the second round recently by the Seahawks, along with Darrell Taylor (2020) and Boye Mafe (2022). All three of them will have rotational roles, along with veteran Uchenna Nwosu, who led this group with 904 snaps played (9th most in the NFL among edge defenders) and a 72.6 PFF grade a year ago, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 14.2% pressure rate.

Nwosu could easily remain the best of the bunch this year. A 2nd round pick by the Chargers in 2018, Nwosu flashed a lot of potential early in his career, only playing 984 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league, but receiving grades of 68.4, 64.7, and 73.2 from PFF in those three seasons, especially excelling as a situational pass rusher, with a 13.7% pressure rate. He wasn’t able to translate that into a larger role in his 4th season in the league in 2021 though, receiving a 64.3 PFF grade on 781 snaps and totaling a 10.0% pressure rate, decent, but unspectacular. That also happened to come in a contract year, limiting Nwosu to a 2-year, 19.055 million dollar deal from the Seahawks in free agency, but he proved to be a good value in the first year of that deal and could easily remain an above average every down player going forward, still only in his age 27 season.

The rest of the bunch, on the other hand, will need to take a step forward this season. Darrell Taylor has 16 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in the past two seasons as a pass rusher, after missing his entire rookie season in 2020 with injury, but he has struggled mightily as a run defender and, as a result, has only received overall grades of 57.6 and 58.0 from PFF the past two seasons, on snap counts of 545 snaps and 484 snaps. He’s still relatively young and could still have untapped upside, but in his 4th season in the league and his age 26 season, I would mostly expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Boye Mafe, on the other hand, was the opposite as a rookie, playing well against the run with a 72.6 run defense grade, but managing just a 5.3% pressure rate, while playing just 423 snaps total. He has the upside to be a lot better of a pass rusher in year two and beyond, but it’s not a guarantee that he ever makes good on that. Still, I would expect him to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year two and he will likely see a bigger role as well, possibly at the expense of Nwosu, who could get more regular breaks this season if the rest of the group is better than it was a year ago. The addition of Derick Hall in the draft could also help, but it’s unlikely he’ll have a huge impact as a rookie. There is a lot of upside in this group, but a lot of downside as well, with a lot of inexperience behind Uchenna Nwosu on the depth chart.

Grade: B

Linebackers

In addition to the Russell Wilson trade, another sign the Seahawks were rebuilding was when they released defensive leader Bobby Wagner, a move that happened on the same day as the Wilson trade. Wagner still played at a high level in 2021 with a 71.8 PFF grade in his 10th season with the team, but he was on the wrong side of 30 and owed 16.6 million, so it makes sense the then rebuilding Seahawks moved on from him. However, with the Seahawks unexpectedly not rebuilding, after the emergence of quarterback Geno Smith, Wagner was actually brought back this off-season on a 1-year, 5.5 million dollar deal, after one season with the Rams.

Wagner now heads into his age 33 season, but he’s also coming off one of the best seasons of his career, ranking #1 among off ball linebackers on PFF with a 90.7 PFF grade, while playing 1,079 snaps. He probably won’t be quite as good in 2023, but he’s finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons, including five seasons over 80, with six total seasons over 80 in his 11-year career. Even if he isn’t as good as a year ago and even if he starts to decline noticeably, he should remain at the very least an above average every down linebacker, with the potential to remain one of the best in the league at his position if he continues not showing his age.

Wagner’s return is much needed for the Seahawks, not just because he is still playing at a high level, but because the Seahawks had a big need at the linebacker position. Jordyn Brooks (1,026 snaps) and Cody Barton (894 snaps) were middling at best as their two every down linebackers last season in Wagner’s absence last season and now the latter is no longer with the team, while the former is coming off of a torn ACL suffered in week 17 of last season that could sideline him for the start of the 2023, given how late in last season that he got hurt.

Brooks was selected in the first round in 2020, likely with the idea in mind of him being Wagner’s long-term replacement, and he’s developed into an above average run defender, with run defense grades of 68.6, 74.3, and 65.2 from PFF in three seasons in the league, while starting 33 of a possible 34 games and playing 65.0 snaps per game over the past two seasons. However, he has been horrendous against the pass, with grades of 29.8, 43.4, and 40.7 respectively in coverage.

Between his coverage struggles and his injury, the Seahawks opted this off-season to decline his 5th year option, which would have guaranteed him 12.722 million for 2024, meaning that Brooks now heads into the final year of his contract this season. If he’s healthy, he should remain an every down player next to Wagner and he’s a former first round pick who is only in his age 26 season, but he’s no guarantee to be any better in coverage than he’s been, especially coming off of a major injury, so the return of Wagner is very welcome to this group.

The Seahawks also added ex-Steeler Devin Bush in free agency on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. Bush is also a recent first round pick with a significant leg injury in his history. The 10th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Bush showed potential with a 62.9 PFF grade on 889 snaps as a rookie, but his second season in the league in 2020 ended after 278 snaps in 5 games and he was a shell of himself upon his return in 2021, with a 34.4 PFF grade on 762 snaps. Bush was better in his second season back in 2022, but still only had a 58.8 PFF grade on 659 snaps, still not even back at the level he played at as a rookie, which is why his free agent market was severely limited.

Still only in his age 25 season, Bush still has some potential and is not a bad flier on a cheap contract that pays him like a reserve, but he’ll be the 3rd linebacker on this defense, which means he won’t see much action unless Brooks misses time and, even if Bush does get to play in Brooks absence, he could easily continue struggling. The re-addition of Bobby Wagner helps this group significantly and Devin Bush and Jordyn Brooks both have upside if they can stay healthy, but they’ll most likely need Wagner to continue playing at a high level for this to be an above average group, as Bush and Brooks also come with a lot of questions.

Grade: B+

Secondary

With the 5th overall pick they got from the Broncos, after the top-3 quarterbacks all went off the board in the top-4 picks, the Seahawks opted to select Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon. He’ll probably have some growing pains as a rookie, but he has the upside to be a legitimate #1 cornerback long-term and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade in year one over Michael Jackson, a former undrafted free agent who started all 17 games for this defense last season (1,082 snaps) and was mediocre with a 60.2 PFF grade, after playing just 30 defensive snaps in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season.

Witherspoon’s addition gives the Seahawks a pair of promising cornerbacks long-term, after 2022 5th round pick Tariq Woolen looked like a diamond in the rough as a rookie, with a 71.6 grade on PFF on 1,135 snaps, including a 77.8 coverage grade that ranked 13th among cornerbacks, another product of last year’s great draft class by the Seahawks. Woolen’s run defense was a problem and only one year isn’t enough to ignore that the entire league let him fall to the 5th round a year ago, so he could struggle for consistency and regress in year two, but he should remain at least a solid starter and has the upside to continue developing and becoming one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The Seahawks also added veteran Julian Love in free agency on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, while fellow safety Jamal Adams is expected back after injuries limited him to just 15 snaps last season. Backup Ryan Neal played very well in Adams’ absence last season, with a 85.6 PFF grade on 713 snaps, and he wasn’t retained this off-season, so Adams’ return and Love’s addition are kind of a downgrade, but they’re not bad options and the Seahawks still have Quandre Diggs, who was the other starter last season, when he was in the first year of a 3-year, 39 million dollar extension.

All three safeties are starting caliber and, with Diggs and Love having experience on the slot the Seahawks lacking a good slot cornerback behind Witherspoon and Woolen, it’s very likely the Seahawks plan to use three safeties together frequently in sub packages. Diggs is the most reliable of the bunch, with four seasons over 70 on PFF in the past five years, including a 73.4 grade last season, while making all but six starts. He is going into his age 30 season this year, so he could start declining, but he could easily remain an above average starter, even if he’s not quite as good as he was at his best.

Jamal Adams gives the Seahawks a lot of upside, but it’s now been four years since he was at his best. He was the 6th overall pick in 2017 by the Jets and received grades of 68.5, 89.8, and 87.9 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league, leading to the Seahawks trading two first round picks for him and eventually giving him a 4-year, 70.58 million dollar deal, which still to this day makes him the third highest paid safety in the league in terms of average annual value.

However, despite being in the supposed prime of his career, Adams has not been able to play at the same level in Seattle, with PFF grades of 64.2 and 60.1 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, before a 2022 season that was almost completely lost due to injury. Adams is still only in his age 28 season and still has theoretical bounce back potential, but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely he’ll ever bounce all the way back, or even close to it. He should at least be a solid starter if healthy, but that’s a disappointment given the investment the Seahawks made in him.

Julian Love also comes with some upside, as the 2019 4th round pick finished last season with a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,006 snaps and is only heading into his age 25 season, but he comes with downside as well, as last season was his first full season as a starter, after averaging just 581 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, during which time his play was pretty inconsistent, even for a reserve. It’s very possible he’s turned a corner and will remain at least a solid starting caliber player, with the upside for more, but, even if he hasn’t, the Seahawks will probably mostly only use him in sub packages anyway, unless Adams or Diggs miss time with injury. His versatility is very valuable to this secondary.

Another rookie cornerback Coby Bryant played 757 snaps as the 3rd corner last season, but he struggled with a 58.9 PFF grade and will likely see a smaller role in year two. The Seahawks also still have Michael Jackson, who wasn’t terrible as a starter last season and is a much better fit as a reserve. With Witherspoon and Love being added and Adams set to return, the Seahawks have a much deeper secondary than a year ago, but the loss of Ryan Neal could prove to be very impactful and, overall, this is a good, not great secondary.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Seahawks surprisingly made the post-season last season after a surprising breakout season from Geno Smith. Things are pretty similar on offense this season and their defense looks a little bit better than a year ago, so if Smith can continue playing at the same level, the Seahawks have a good chance to be as good or better than a year ago. That’s a big if though, for a now 10-year veteran who is a one-year wonder and who was not nearly as good down the stretch last season as he was to start the year. I wouldn’t expect him to totally regress back to backup quality, but I wouldn’t expect him to be as good either and, depending on how much he regresses, that could be enough to keep the Seahawks on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, even with the NFC being even weaker than a year ago. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC West

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