Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

Typically, betting on 3.5-point favorites is not a winning proposition, as they cover the spread only 47.7% of the time. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is.

However, I think the gap between these two teams is big enough to more than justify this line, as the Ravens have a significant edge in DVOA (1st ranked 47.2% vs. 15th ranked 5.7%), yards per play differential (+1.56 vs. -1.21), and first down rate differential (+6.32% vs. -3.72%). In terms of point differential, the Ravens are at +113, while the Bengals are at -10, despite the Bengals benefiting from a league best +10 turnover margin (Baltimore is +1), which tends to be unpredictive and tough to sustain week-to-week. 

The Bengals have been a lot better since Joe Burrow returned to full strength, but even with Burrow factored in as totally healthy, the Ravens have a 6-point edge in my roster rankings, as they have the significantly better roster overall. Given that, I have no problem betting the Ravens as mere 3.5-point home favorites. This isn’t a big bet because the Ravens have already beaten the Bengals once and teams cover at just a 42.7% rate as divisional home favorites against a team they’ve already beaten as divisional road underdogs, but that trend isn’t enough to completely deter me from betting on the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3.5

Confidence: Medium