Pick of the Week
CAR 17 (+4) GB 16 Upset Pick +170
High Confidence Picks
PIT 20 (+2.5) CIN 17 Upset Pick +125
Medium Confidence Picks
WAS 17 (+3) NYJ 16 Upset Pick +140
HOU 17 (+3) CLE 16 Upset Pick +135
SEA 24 TEN 23 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
DET 28 MIN 27 (+3)
PHI 28 (-13.5) NYG 13
KC 28 (-10) LV 16
CHI 26 (-4) ARZ 20
SF 27 BAL 23 (+6)
No Confidence Picks
JAX 26 (-1) TB 24
ATL 23 (-2.5) IND 20
DEN 21 (-7) NE 13
MIA 24 DAL 23 (+1.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
The Bengals have surprisingly won three straight games with backup quarterback Jake Browning under center, but two of those games required overtime and I expect things to be tougher for Jake Browning going forward, as teams now have more tape on him, going into his 5th start in the league. Browning also faces a much tougher defense this week in Pittsburgh against the Steelers than he has in any of his three wins (Jaguars, Colts, Vikings), a Steelers defense that flustered Browning and led a defeat of the Bengals in Cincinnati in Browning’s first start a few weeks ago.
The Steelers are without starting quarterback Kenny Pickett in this one, but Pickett wasn’t playing well anyway, so backup Mason Rudolph isn’t much of a downgrade. Conversely, the Bengals lost top wide receiver JaMarr Chase and stud defensive tackle DJ Reader to injury last week and are a much worse team without those two, which this line doesn’t seem to take into account, with the line shifting from Pittsburgh -1.5 on the early line to Cincinnati -2.5 in the last week.
The Steelers aren’t at full strength, but Reader and Chase are bigger absences than anyone on Pittsburgh’s side and my roster rankings have these two teams about two points apart, so we’re getting good value with the Steelers as 2.5-point home underdogs. The Bengals are also in a tough spot after last week’s comeback win, as teams cover at just a 36.1% rate after winning as favorites in a game in which they trailed by 14 or more points going into the 4th quarter. Between the line value we’re getting with the Steelers and the bad spot the Bengals are in, I like the Steelers a good amount this week, both against the spread and on the money line.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick +125
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +2.5
Confidence: High
Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
This might sound crazy since the Chargers were blown out by 42 points last week against the mediocre Raiders, but I actually like the Chargers a good amount this week, as 12.5-point home underdogs against the Bills, a big shift from -9.5 on the early line last week, prior to the Chargers’ blowout loss. The Chargers’ blowout loss last week was largely the result of poor effort and a -5 turnover margin and I expect both of those to be better this week. Teams tend to bounce back after a blowout loss, covering at a 62.4% rate as underdogs after a loss of 35 or more points, as teams tend to be embarrassed and overlooked in that spot, and that should especially be true of the Chargers, who saw head coach Brandon Staley fired over the past week.
On top of that, turnover margins tend to be very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams with a turnover margin of -5 or worse, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week, leading to underdogs of more than a touchdown covering at a 59.5% rate after a turnover margin of -5 or worse the previous week. The Bills, on the other hand, are coming off of a huge win over the Cowboys and probably won’t bring their best effort for the Chargers. We’re not getting much line value with the Chargers, who are one of the worst teams in the league without Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, who remain out, and my calculated line is Buffalo -11.5, but I like the spot the Chargers are in enough to place a small bet on them against the spread, in a game that should be closer than most expect.
Buffalo Bills 26 Los Angeles Chargers 17
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +12.5
Confidence: Medium
New Orleans Saints (7-7) at Los Angeles Rams (7-7)
Normally, the rule of thumb with Thursday Night Football is to take the home team in a non-divisional matchup as long as they are at least decently favored, as it’s tough for a team to travel on a short week and face a relatively unfamiliar non-divisional foe that is equal to or better than them, leading to non-divisional home favorites of more than a field goal going 31-20 ATS on Thursdays as long as both teams are on short rest. That trend applies here, with the Rams favored by 4 points at home.
Both teams are 7-7, but I would say this spread is still fair at -4, or even that it’s too low. These two teams are about equal in terms of first down rate differential (+1.07% for Saints vs. +0.88% for Rams) and yards per play differential (+0.07 vs. +0.26), but the Rams are a much better offensive team (5.53 yards per play and 30.66% first down rate differential vs. 5.05 and 28.36% for the Saints), which is much more predictive than defensive performance, and the Rams have also faced a much tougher schedule, ranking 9th in opponent’s DVOA, as opposed to 32nd for the Saints. The Rams also have the 3-point edge in my roster rankings, so, if anything this line is too low, with my calculated line sitting at New Orleans -5.5, taking into account my roster rankings and the statistical differences between these teams. With that in mind, the Rams are a safe bet in a good spot this week and I like them quite a bit.
Los Angeles Rams 27 New Orleans Saints 19
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -4
Confidence: High
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