Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

The Vikings lost at home week 1 to a Buccaneers team that was expected to be mediocre at best coming into this season. The Vikings were favored by 5-6 points in that game depending on when you bet the line, so that loss was a surprise to many people, but it didn’t come out of nowhere. The Vikings finished last season 13-4, but needed an unprecedented 11-0 record in one-score games to do so, which history suggested they wouldn’t come close to repeating in 2023 (0-1 so far this season). 

The Vikings’ point differential last season was just -3 and because of a weak schedule their DVOA was even worse, ranking 27th, both of which are much more predictive year-to-year than winning percentage in one-score games is. On top of that, their roster looks worse going into 2023 than it did a year ago, losing key players like edge defender Za’Darius Smith, interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, cornerback Patrick Peterson, middle linebacker Eric Kendricks, and feature back Dalvin Cook this off-season, without adding comparable replacements. 

Despite the Vikings’ loss last week, this line has actually moved in their favor since the early line a week ago, with the Vikings going from 7-point underdogs in this game in Philadelphia to now being just 6-point underdogs. The Eagles looked underwhelming in a near loss in New England last week, losing the first down rate and yards per play battle and only prevailing because they won the turnover battle and had a defensive touchdown, which are both very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Additionally, the Eagles will be without talented cornerback James Bradberry, starting safety Reed Blankenship, and starting running back Kenneth Gainwell in this game.

However, the Eagles still had a big DVOA edge over the Vikings in week 1 (17.1% vs. -4.1%), even before you take into account that the Eagles probably faced a tougher opponent than the Vikings did, and even with their injuries the Eagles still have a big roster edge over the Vikings, who have injuries of their own, with center Garrett Bradbury out and left tackle Christian Darrisaw and Marcus Davenport both considered highly questionable on a short week. With all of that considered, my calculated line has the Eagles favored by 12 points, so we’re getting a lot of line value with Philadelphia at only -6. 

My calculated line might sound high, but the Vikings lost by at least 17 points in two of the three games they played against teams who finished with double digit wins last season, including the Eagles, and the Vikings are probably worse this year than they were a year ago, especially with their current injuries. On top of that, the Vikings are in a bad spot this week, traveling on a short week to face a superior non-divisional opponent. Non-divisional road underdogs are just 27-46 ATS on Thursday Night Football all-time when both teams are on short rest. Between that and the line being too short, I like the Eagles a lot this week. If this was a Sunday game, I probably would make it my Pick of the Week, but I don’t like locking in my Pick of the Week this early so I am going to keep this as “just” a high confidence pick. Either way, I don’t expect this one to be close.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: High