Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)

Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to bet on the home team as long as they are significantly better, as it’s very tough for inferior teams to travel to face an unfamiliar opponent on a short week. As a result, non-divisional home favorites of 3+ are 29-16 ATS on Thursdays, as long as both teams are on short rest. The Bills are only a half game better than the Buccaneers in the standings, but that trend applies here, as they have a significantly better point differential (+80 vs. -1) and rank 4th in DVOA, while the Buccaneers rank 20th. We’re not getting significant line value with the Bills as 8.5-point home favorites, as that is right where I have this line calculated, but the Bills are worth betting purely based on that aforementioned trend, with that trend increasing to 17-6 ATS for non-divisional favorites of more than a touchdown. This isn’t a big bet, but I like the Bills a good amount this week.

Buffalo Bills 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -8.5

Confidence: Medium