2024 NFL Season Previews

Carolina Panthers 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Panthers

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Panthers made an aggressive trade up from the 9th pick to the 1st pick in the draft to select quarterback Bryce Young. In the previous five seasons, the Panthers finished between 5 wins and 7 wins every season, while starting eight different quarterbacks, so they clearly needed a new direction at the position, but the Panthers paid a steep price to move up, giving away the 9th pick, the 61st pick, their 2024 1st round pick, their 2025 2nd round pick, and talented wide receiver DJ Moore.

Unfortunately, that decision backfired for the Panthers. Their offense missed DJ Moore in a big way and Bryce Young, with little help around him, struggled mightily as a rookie, completing just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 5.46 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on an offense that ranked last in yards per play and 29th in first down rate. The Panthers’ defense wasn’t bad, but their offensive struggles still led to the team finishing with the worst record in the league at 2-15, which meant that the first round pick the Panthers surrendered to the Bears ended up being 1st overall, allowing the Bears to select Caleb Williams, a much better quarterback prospect than Young.

That left the Panthers in the position of being the worst team in the league and not having the #1 pick to fix the situation. Instead, the Panthers spent significantly in free agency trying to improve their roster around Young, to hopefully get much better play out of Young in year two and beyond. In terms of average annual value of their roster, the Panthers shot up from 28th in 2023 to 11th in 2024 after their off-season spending spree. That normally correlates heavily with winning percentage, but the Panthers overpaid a lot of their free agents in a desperate attempt to improve their roster.

That being said, Young and this offense should be better in year two, if only by default. Much of the problem with the Panthers’ offense a year ago was not his fault and, if only by default, they are better around him on offense this season. Young also has a good chance to be better himself. He’ll continue being backed up by veteran Andy Dalton, who has a career 87.6 QB rating in 163 starts in 13 seasons in the league, including a 88.4 QB rating across 58 pass attempts when Young missed time with injury in 2023, but he’s now going into his age 37 season and is nothing more than a solid backup at this stage of his career, so Young figures to keep his job all season even if he continues struggling. The Panthers still have a long way to go to be competitive for a playoff spot, even in the weaker NFC, but they probably won’t be as bad as a year ago. 

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Panthers spent big at the guard position this off-season, signing ex-Dolphin Robert Hunt to a 5-year, 100 million dollar deal and ex-Seahawk Damien Lewis to a 4-year, 53 million dollar deal. Help at the guard position was much needed, as the Panthers somehow had nine different players start at the two guard spots in 2023 and all of them finished with PFF grades below 60, with all but four of them finishing with grades below 50. Hunt should be a big upgrade, having finished above 60 in all four seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2020 (55 starts), including PFF grades of 73.7 and 77.1 over the past two seasons respectively. He’s a little overpaid as the 3rd highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he should be a big boost for this offensive line. 

Damien Lewis is not nearly as good of a player and was a bigger overpay. He did have PFF grades of 70.2 and 71.8 in 2020 and 2022 respectively, but he was inconsistent with PFF grades of 57.1 and 59.6 in 2021 and 2023 respectively. The 2020 3rd round pick could still be a solid starter if he bounces back and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what the Panthers had at the position a year ago, but the Panthers paid a lot more than they needed to for a player with as inconsistent of a resume as him.

The Panthers didn’t bring back center Bradley Bozeman as a free agent and had a decent 62.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but they have Austin Corbett as a replacement. Corbett was one of the guards who struggled last season, with a 47.9 PFF grade in 257 snaps (4 starts), but he was coming off of a torn ACL that he suffered at the end of the 2022 season and he has a lot of bounce back potential in 2024 if he’s past his injury. From 2020-2022, Corbett made 50 starts and received PFF grades of 70.9, 68.8, and 69.1 and he’s only in his age 29 season. He has more experience at guard than center, but can play both positions and is needed more at center than guard with Hunt and Lewis being added this off-season.

Four other players who made starts at guard last season are still on the roster and will compete for depth options. Chandler Zavala was a 4th round pick in 2023, but he had a 26.2 PFF grade on 374 snaps as a rookie and has a long way to go to even be a decent backup. Nash Jensen was an undrafted rookie who had a 34.7 PFF grade on 302 snaps and he’s also unlikely to even be a decent backup this season. Cade Mays, a 2022 6th round pick, was better with a 58.3 PFF grade on a career high 434 snaps and could be a decent backup, while Brady Christensen probably has the most upside of the bunch. 

Christensen only played one game in 2023 due to injury, going down for the season with a season ending injury after week 1, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and wasn’t horrible in his first two seasons in the league with PFF grades of 61.6 and 57.3 on snap counts of 480 and 965 respectively. He’s only ever played tackle and guard, but could probably play center too if needed, so he’s a solid, versatile reserve option. 

The Panthers also signed Yosh Nijman to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal this off-season and he has grades of 60.5, 63.2, 63.1, and 61.7 over the past four seasons, while making 22 starts as the Packers’ swing tackle. Tackle is actually a position of strength for the Panthers, as starters Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are both above average, so Nijman will remain a swing tackle, giving the Panthers above average depth at that position. He and Christensen will probably be the Panthers’ top reserves, giving them good depth upfront.

Taylor Moton was the Panthers’ best offensive lineman in 2023, with a 74.6 PFF grade in 17 starts. He’s been an above average starter for years, with PFF grades of 76.6, 76.2, 81.6, 77.5, and 69.3 in the five seasons prior to last season, while making all 99 possible starts in the past six seasons combined. He’s now in his age 30 season and could decline a little bit in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does decline, there’s a good chance he remains an above average starter, given that he’s starting from such a high base point. 

Ikem Ekwonu, meanwhile, was the 6th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has PFF grades of 65.3 and 67.4 in the past two seasons, and could have his best season yet in 2024, given his sky high upside and the fact that he’s still only in his age 24 season. The Panthers overpaid for Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, but adding those two at guard and likely getting a healthier year out of Austin Corbett should make this offensive line much better than a year ago, when it was a big weakness, particularly on the interior.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Panthers’ receiving corps was a big problem last season as well. Adam Thielen surpassed 1000 yards receiving with a 103/1014/4 slash line, but he wasn’t that efficient, averaging just 1.59 yards per route run and 7.40 yards per target. Thielen was a better receiver in his prime, averaging 1.98 yards per route run from 2016-2021 with a 88/1124/9 slash line per 17 games, but he’s on the decline and he’s now going into his age 34 season, so he could easily continue declining further.

The rest of this receiving corps was even worse in 2023, with DJ Chark totaling a 35/525/5 slash line with 1.08 yards per route run, Jonathan Mingo totaling a 43/418/0 slash line with 0.78 yards per route run, and no other players surpassing 250 yards receiving. Quarterback play was part of the problem, but the receiving corps also needed significant upgrades this off-season, especially when you consider Adam Thielen’s age. To try to improve this group, the Panthers traded back up into the first round for Xavier Legette and traded for veteran Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers, taking on the remaining 1 year and 10 million left on his contract.

Legette should have a big role right away, likely as a starter, but he enters the league pretty raw, albeit with a huge upside. Diontae Johnson, meanwhile, is a solid wide receiver, but not a true #1 receiver, averaging 1.72 yards per route run, 6.83 yards per target, and 873 yards per season in five seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2019. They should both play in three wide receiver sets with Thielen, a trio that is unspectacular, but significantly better than what they had a year ago.

DJ Chark is no longer with the team, while Jonathan Mingo will now likely be the #4 receiver. He was a 2nd round pick in 2023 and has the upside to be significantly better in year two, so he’s not bad depth to have, but it’s possible he would continue struggling if forced back into a bigger role by injury and/or underperformance ahead of him on the depth chart. Terrance Marshall is also a recent 2nd round pick, but he has averaged just 0.94 yards per route run in three seasons in the league and couldn’t earn a significant role even in a thin receiving corps a year ago (334 snaps), so he’s nothing more than depth.

The Panthers gave playing time to four tight ends last season, Tommy Tremble (556 snaps), Hayden Hurst (318 snaps), Ian Thomas (218 snaps), and Stephen Sullivan (171 snaps), but they all struggled, with slash lines of 23/194/3, 18/184/1, 5/56/0, and 12/125/0 respectively on yards per route run averages of 0.78, 0.82, 0.73, and 0.98 respectively. All but Hurst remain and the only addition the Panthers made to this group this off-season was 4th round pick Ja’Tavion Sanders, so they should continue getting very little out of this group.

Tremble was a 3rd round pick in 2021, but has averaged just 0.71 yards per route run with 62 catches in 49 career games. Thomas is a 6-year veteran, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons, while averaging just 0.69 yards per route run. Stephen Sullivan is a 2020 7th round pick with 14 career catches. Unless the rookie Sanders surprises in a big way year one, I wouldn’t expect any of these players to contribute in any sort of significant way. This receiving corps should be better this year than a year ago, with the additions of Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson, but this group still has their problems and, overall, is underwhelming.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Last off-season, the Panthers gave a 4-year, 25.4 million dollar contract to former Eagles running back Miles Sanders, a contract that currently makes him the 12th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary. Sanders, a 2nd round pick in 2019, averaged 5.02 YPC on 739 carries in four seasons with the Eagles, but struggled mightily after going from a great offensive line on a talented offense in Philadelphia to a poor offensive line on a talentless offense in Carolina, dropping to just 3.34 YPC as a result.

Sanders struggled so much that lost his starting job to expected backup Chuba Hubbard, who ended up out-carrying him 238 to 129 on the season. Hubbard only had a 3.79 YPC average and has just a 3.92 YPC average on 505 carries in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in the 2021 NFL draft, but he was still significantly more effective than Sanders was and his underwhelming YPC average can largely be attributed to the issues around him on this offense. 

Sanders remains on the roster because of a guaranteed 6.22 million dollar salary, but Hubbard should remain above him on the depth chart and Sanders will also likely be surpassed on the depth chart by Jonathon Brooks, who the Panthers selected in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. 

Running back was a relatively minor need for the Panthers this off-season, but Brooks likely would have been a first round pick if not for a torn ACL suffered late in his final collegiate season and clearly the Panthers are comfortable with his recovery from that injury. He’ll probably be eased into action early in the season, but I would expect him to at least split carries with Hubbard by season’s end and it’s entirely possible he ends up as the lead back and the team leader in carries, even as a rookie being eased into action after injury.

Hubbard was actually 4th on this team in receiving yardage last season, but that’s not as impressive as it sounds, as he had just a 39/233/0 slash line with a 0.79 yards per route run average. Overall, his yards per route run average in his career is 0.99, making him a better pass catching option than Sanders, who has averaged just 0.85, including a 0.73 yards per route in 2023, when he finished with a 27/154/0 slash line. Hubbard will likely continue playing more passing down snaps than Sanders, but the rookie Brooks has the most passing down upside of any of their backs, after catching 25 passes for 286 yards in just 11 games in his final collegiate season. The Panthers have some options in the backfield, but this will likely remain an underwhelming group unless they get a big rookie year out of Jonathon Brooks, who is coming off a significant injury.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers spent a lot of money trying to build up their offensive supporting cast this off-season, but they traded away one of their best defensive player Brian Burns, receiving a second round pick for the talented edge defender, who the Giants gave a 5-year, 141 million dollar extension upon acquiring him, making him the third highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

The trade made some sense, as the Panthers are not close to competing even with Burns and needed to replenish draft capital after their trade up with the Bears for Bryce Young last off-season, but Burns is only going into his age 26 season and was the kind of player the Panthers should have built around, rather than using the money they saved by not paying him to overpay other team’s free agents. Burns finished the 2023 season with an overall 73.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate and totaled 46 sacks, 56 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 80 games in five seasons with the Panthers, who selected him in the first round in the 2019 NFL Draft.

The Panthers also did not bring back Yetur Gross-Matos, who had a decent 65.4 PFF grade across 465 snaps as the other starting edge defender last season, nor did they bring back Justin Houston or Marquis Haynes, who both were decent in smaller roles, with PFF grades of 61.2 and 71.9 respectively on snap counts of 177 and 142 respectively. In what is a completely revamped position group, the Panthers added free agents Jadeveon Clowney, DJ Wonnum, and K’Lavon Chaisson on deals worth 20 million over 2 years, 12.5 million over 2 years, and 2.5 million over 1 year respectively. 

Clowney is the best of the bunch, playing the run well and getting to the quarterback at an impressive rate, exceeding 60 on PFF in overall grade in every season except his rookie season in 2024 and exceeding 70 in all but one of the past nine seasons, including a 85.7 PFF grade in 653 snaps last season. In total, he has 52.5 sacks, 80 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 122 games over those past nine seasons, including 9.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 2023. 

However, Clowney is now going into his age 31 season and he’s always had durability problems, missing 37 games in 10 seasons in the league, while making it through the season without missing time just twice. He could start to decline this season and, even if he doesn’t, he’ll likely miss some time with injury and he also doesn’t really fit the rebuilding Panthers’ timeline to compete, so he was a bit of an odd signing, even if his presence does make the team better.

Wonnum and Chaisson, meanwhile, are both underwhelming players. Wonnum has developed into a decent run stopper, but he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with 23 sacks, 23 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate in 62 games in four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020, while finishing below 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in all four of those seasons. Chaisson, meanwhile, has finished below 60 overall on PFF in all four seasons in the league, while playing just 336 snaps per season. He is only still in the league because he was a first round pick in 2020 and is still only in his age 25 season. He might still have significant untapped upside and could theoretically take a step forward with his new team, but time is running out for him to develop into even a capable rotational player.

The Panthers’ top returning edge defenders from a year ago are DJ Johnson and Amare Barno, who played just 231 snaps and 189 snaps respectively. Johnson struggled in limited action last season, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league. I would expect him to see an expanded role in a revamped position group in 2024. Barno, meanwhile, was a 2022 6th round pick and has only played 240 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. He’ll likely be on the outside looking in for a role in 2024, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, and he’s not a lock for the final roster. This is an underwhelming group outside of the veteran Jadeveon Clowney, whose age and injury history are both significant concerns.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Panthers did keep one talented defensive lineman, locking up 2020 1st round pick Derrick Brown on a 4-year, 96 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. Brown is now the 4th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary and he only has 8 sacks in 66 career games, but he has added 37 hits and a 7.5% pressure rate, while excelling against the run, particularly over the past two seasons, when he has had overall PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 on snap counts of 870 and 938 respectively. Still only in his age 26 season, he should continue being one of the better interior defenders in the league for years to come and he could possibly even have further untapped upside.

The rest of the Panthers’ interior defender options are all also better against the run than they are as pass rushers, so this group doesn’t complement each other well. Shy Tuttle was second at the position in snaps played in 2023 with 547 and he has just a 3.5% pressure rate in his career, which fell to just 0.9% last season. He’s also only played 452 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, with a max of 557. The 2019 undrafted free agent is a solid run stuffer, but nothing more.

DeShawn Williams was a situational pass rusher for the Panthers last season and, while he only had a 7.5% pressure rate, he’ll still be missed in that aspect because the Panthers don’t have another situational pass rush option. Instead, Williams was replaced by A’Shawn Robinson, who has finished above 60 in run defense grade on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, but only has a 5.2% pressure rate in his career, including 3.6% last season with the Giants. Signing him to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal this off-season, the Panthers probably overpaid for a mostly redundant run stuffer.

Deep reserves Nick Thurman and LaBryan Ray are also better against the run than they are as pass rushers, but they aren’t particularly good run defenders either. Thurman, a 2018 undrafted free agent, has only played 505 snaps in his career, 368 of which came last season. He had a solid 65.4 PFF grade against the run last season, but had just a 2.3% pressure rate, and has a pressure rate of just 3.3% in his career. Ray, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who played the first 356 snaps of his career last season, finishing with a 54.6 PFF grade and a 2.2% pressure rate. 

Both Thurman and/or Ray will probably have to play at least somewhat of a role again in 2024, with the Panthers only other deep reserve option being 6th round rookie Jaden Crumedy, who would also probably struggle. Derrick Brown is one of the best interior defenders in the league and Shy Tuttle and A’Shawn Robinson are good run defenders, but the Panthers lack depth in this position group, particularly when it comes to interior pass rushers.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Another key defensive player the Panthers didn’t bring back this off-season is linebacker Frankie Luvu. Luvu had a 80.0 PFF grade across 989 snaps in 2023, but the Panthers opted not to try to match or exceed the 3-year, 31 million dollar deal he signed with the Commanders this off-season and instead signed Josey Jewell from the Broncos on a 3-year, 18.75 million dollar deal. Jewell is a solid player who has PFF grades of 68.1, 71.7, 67.2 on an average of 877 snaps per season in his last three healthy seasons, but he’ll still probably be a downgrade from Luvu.

Fortunately, the Panthers do get Shaq Thompson back, after his 2023 season was ended by injury in week 2. Prior to last season, Thompson had missed just 13 games in 8 seasons in the league and finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of those eight seasons, with four seasons above 70, including PFF grades of 72.7 and 72.3 on snap counts of 796 and 1,089 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Thompson is now in his age 30 season and coming off of a serious injury, so he could decline a little bit, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain a solid every down player.

The Panthers also added Trevin Wallace in the third round of the draft to give themselves additional linebacker depth. They downgraded by going from Frankie Luvu to Josey Jewell, but it wouldn’t be hard for Thompson and Wallace to be better than Deion Jones and Kamu Grugier-Hill were as their top linebackers behind Luvu last season, when they had PFF grades of 66.3 and 48.6 respectively. This group doesn’t have the top level talent in Luvu that they had a year ago, but they should make up for that somewhat by being a deeper group.

Grade: B

Cornerback

Along with getting Shaq Thompson back from injury, the Panthers could also get a healthier season out of top cornerback Jaycee Horn, who had an impressive 84.1 PFF grade in 2023, but was limited to just 275 snaps in 6 games by injury. A first round pick in 2021, Horn has always had a huge upside and he had impressive grades of 67.8 and 71.4 in his first two seasons in the league as well, but injuries have consistently plagued him, limiting him to 142 snaps in 3 games as a rookie and 812 snaps in 13 games in his second season in the league in 2022, meaning he’s played in just 22 of a possible 51 games in three seasons in the league. 

Horn is still only going into his age 24 season and the Panthers picked up his 5th year option for 2025 because of the upside he’s shown when healthy, but his impressive play has come in a pretty limited sample size thus far in his career and there’s a good chance he misses more time with injury in 2024 and beyond. He has a high ceiling and could put it all together in his 4th season in the league in 2024 if he can finally stay healthy, but he comes with a low floor as well.

The Panthers will need Horn to stay healthy because the rest of this position group is pretty thin. The Panthers didn’t bring back Donte Jackson (902 snaps) and CJ Henderson (407 snaps), who played significant roles a year ago. Henderson had just a 45.4 PFF grade, but Jackson was decent with a 64.3 PFF grade and the Panthers didn’t do much to replace them, only signing ex-Bill Dane Jackson to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal in free agency. Jackson, a 2020 7th round pick, only started 28 of the 52 games he played in four seasons in Buffalo and had mostly mediocre grades from PFF, finishing in the 50s or 60s in all four seasons, but the Panthers don’t have a choice but to make him an every down starter.

The Panthers do bring back veteran Troy Hill, who had a decent 61.3 PFF grade on 493 snaps in 2023, and he’ll probably have to be their 3rd cornerback by default, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and has started just 58 of the 113 games he’s played in nine seasons in the league, while posting middling PFF grades in the 60s in the past three seasons, on snap counts of 533, 703, and 493 respectively, a noticeable drop off from his prime. Given his age, he could decline further in 2024 and be a liability, especially in an expanded role. 

Behind the top-3 of Horn, Jackson, and Hill, the Panthers’ best options are 5th round rookie Chau Smith-Wade, who would likely struggle in a significant rookie year role, 2023 undrafted free agent D’Shawn Jamison, who struggled with a 47.2 PFF grade on 107 snaps as a rookie, and Dicaprio Bootle, a 2021 undrafted free agent who has played just 221 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league. Depth is a big issue for the Panthers at cornerback, one that will be an even bigger issue if Horn suffers another significant injury. Horn’s upside if he stays healthy and puts it all together is the only positive thing this cornerback group has going for it.

The Panthers could try to mask some of their lack of depth at cornerback by using three safeties together frequently in sub packages, but their safety depth is only better than their cornerback depth by default. The starting duo of Jordan Fuller and Xavier Woods is at least solid though, with Fuller coming over from the Rams this off-season on a 1-year, 3.25 million dollar deal and Woods in the final year of a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal that he signed as a free agent two off-seasons ago. 

Fuller, a 2020 6th round pick, received PFF grades of 63.6, 74.3, and 66.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, while starting all 45 games he played in those three seasons, with a lost season due to injury in 2022 in between. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue being a solid starter and he has a good chance to be an upgrade, even if only slightly, on the player he is replacing, Vonn Bell, who had a 63.9 PFF grade across 777 snaps in 2023.

Woods, meanwhile, is coming off of a career best 80.3 PFF grade in 14 starts (3 games missed due to injury). He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s not a complete one-year wonder, receiving PFF grades above 60 in all seven seasons in the league (94 starts in 106 games), including four seasons above 70. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect Woods to repeat his career best 2023 campaign, but he should remain at least a solid starter. Depth is the issue at the safety position. The Panthers signed veteran Nick Scott in free agency and he’s started 27 of the 50 games he’s played in the past three seasons, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in all three of those seasons, with grades of 47.5, 54.2, and 44.0 respectively. 

Even with his experience, Scott won’t be guaranteed the top backup spot and will have to compete with 2023 5th round pick Jammie Robinson, who played 64 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and Sam Franklin, who has been a backup safety for the Panthers for the past four seasons, with mostly mediocre play across 781 snaps. Scott is probably the favorite for the #3 safety job and all three of their backup options would probably struggle if forced into significant action. The Panthers have a solid safety duo and a high upside #1 cornerback Jaycee Horn, but Horn comes with a lot of downside as well and the Panthers’ depth at both cornerback and safety is very suspect.

Grade: B

Conclusion

On offense, the Panthers improved their supporting cast and should get better play out of quarterback Bryce Young. On defense, they lost a pair of key players in Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu, but they replaced them with Jadeveon Clowney and Josey Jewell, who aren’t huge downgrades, and they could get healthier years out of both Jaycee Horn and Shaq Thompson, who are key contributors when healthy. However, this team was the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin a year ago and needed to improve significantly to even be respectable. They’ll be more competitive than a year ago, but it’s hard to see this team qualifying for the post-season, even in the weaker NFC. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Panthers after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in NFC South

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Quarterback

In the first five seasons of Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback from 2018-2022, the Chiefs finished in the top-3 in offensive DVOA in all five seasons. In 2023, the Chiefs fell to 8th in DVOA and Mahomes had the lowest QB rating of his career at 92.6, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, after completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in his first five seasons in the league (106.0 QB rating). 

Despite that, the Chiefs still won the Super Bowl, their 2nd in a row and their 3rd in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. While their offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the past, their defense was the best it had been in Mahomes’ tenure, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, giving the Chiefs a well balanced team that was one of the best in the league in the regular season and that was capable of going all the way once the post-season began.

Mahomes wasn’t as good statistically as he had been in the past, but that wasn’t really his fault, nor was the Chiefs’ relative lack of offensive success. Mahomes has a 85.1 PFF grade, his 4th highest grade of his six seasons as a starter and his 6th straight season above 80, dating back to his first season as a starter in 2018. The problem was that Mahomes’ offensive supporting cast was the worst he’s had in his tenure as a starter, which I’ll get into later. With Mahomes still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Mahomes has only missed two games due to injury in his career, but if he were to miss time, the Chiefs would turn to Carson Wentz, who they added this off-season. Wentz would obviously be a big downgrade from Mahomes, as any backup quarterback would be, but he’s probably above average as far as backups go. He has plenty of experience, with 93 starts in 8 seasons in the league, and he has a decent 89.4 QB rating across those starts, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 153 touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. With Mahomes leading the way, this is one of, if not the best quarterback room in the NFL.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The biggest problem around Mahomes last season was his receiving corps. Of the Chiefs’ top-5 wide receivers in terms of snaps played, four of them finished in the bottom half of wide receivers on PFF. The one exception was rookie Rashee Rice, a 2023 2nd round pick. Rice’s overall receiving numbers (79/938/7) don’t look that great, but he was a part-time player earlier in the season. From week 6 on, he had a 62/765/5 slash line in 11 games, which extrapolates to 96/1182/7 over a 17-game stretch. He also averaged 2.39 yards per route run, 10th among eligible wide receivers, and he received a 85.0 PFF grade, 13th among eligible wide receivers. 

Going into his second season in the league, Rice should have a lot of promise, but he’s facing an extended suspension for off-the-field issues from this off-season, which would be a big blow to this offense. Fortunately, the Chiefs did make improving their receiving corps a priority this off-season, signing Marquise Brown to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal in free agency and using their first round pick on Xavier Worthy. When Rice is on the field, Brown and Worthy will play in three wide receiver sets with him and, if he’s not available, they should help somewhat make up for Rice’s absence. It’s also possible that Rice’ suspension doesn’t start until the 2025 season, as the league lets the legal process play out.

Marquise Brown was a first round pick in 2019 by the Ravens and then was traded to the Cardinals for a first round pick following the 2021 season. Brown was better with the Ravens, averaging 1.69 yards per route run over his three seasons with the team, surpassing 1000 yards in 2021, before falling to 1.35 yards per route run with the Cardinals over the past two seasons, but he had much worse quarterback play in Arizona and is a good bet to bounce back now that he’s in Kansas City with Mahomes. He’s also only in his age 27 season, so he should be in the prime of his career. Worthy, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term #1 receiver and, even if he has growing pains as a rookie, he should be a useful contributor for them in a complementary role.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling wasn’t brought back this off-season, but he won’t be missed after a 2023 season in which he had just a 21/315/1 slash line, a 0.71 yards per route run average, and ranked 100th among 102 eligible wide receivers in PFF grade. The Chiefs did bring back the rest of their wide receivers from a year ago and, while none of them were good in significant roles last season, the Chiefs won’t need them for more than depth this season, though one would have to play significant snaps for a period of time if Rice misses time due to his suspension. 

Skyy Moore has the most upside of their reserve options, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but he’s averaged just 1.08 yards per route run with slash lines of 22/250/0 and 21/244/1 in two seasons in the league. He’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but he’s still best as a reserve option. Kadarius Toney also has upside, as a 2021 1st round pick with a career 1.76 yards per route run average, but he’s been limited to snap counts of 302, 144, and 229 in three seasons in the league due to injuries and inconsistent performance and he was traded from the Giants to the Chiefs midway through his second season in the league for a 3rd round pick after they gave up on his upside. Still only in his age 25 season, the potential is there, but he’s also best as a reserve option.

Justin Watson is a veteran who was second among Chiefs wide receivers in receiving yardage last season, but he only had a 27/460/3 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average, both of which were actually career bests for the 6-year veteran. Now in his age 29 season, it’s highly unlikely the 2018 5th round pick has any untapped upside. The Chiefs also have Mecole Hardman, who returned to the team midway through the season after a very disappointing half season with the Jets. He has a decent 1.62 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league since being selected by the Chiefs in the 2nd round in 2019, but he only has 40 catches over the past two seasons and played just 124 snaps in 6 regular season games after returning to the team during last season. He’ll have to compete for a roster spot with the rest of the Chiefs reserve options.

The Chiefs also still have tight end Travis Kelce, who somewhat made up for the Chiefs’ lack of wide receiver depth, leading the team with a 93/984/5 slash line and averaging 1.92 yards per route run, second on the team behind Rashee Rice. That was a down year by Kelce’s standards though, as he had surpassed 1000 yards receiving in each of his previous seven seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run over that stretch. Now going into his age 35 season, age seems to be catching up with Kelce somewhat, but, barring a massive dropoff, the future Hall of Famer should remain one of the best tight ends in the league again in 2024.

Kelce will likely continue being backed up by Noah Gray, a 2021 5th round pick who has seen snap counts of 599 and 595 over the past two seasons, but he’s a mediocre player who has averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in his career and the Chiefs added Jared Wiley in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them another long-term option. Wiley will probably spend his rookie year as the third tight end, but could work his way into more playing time as the year goes on. The Chiefs added Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown to give themselves much needed depth in the receiving corps and Rashee Rice could have a big second season in the league if he is able to play the whole season, but his legal issues cloud his outlook, while tight end Travis Kelce could continue declining, given his age.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was part of the problem in 2023, particularly the tackle position. In 2022, the Chiefs had a solid tackle duo of Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie, but both left as free agents and the Chiefs replaced them with Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, who both struggled with PFF grades of 55.4 and 51.6 respectively. The left tackle Smith wasn’t brought back this off-season and will either be replaced by 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris, who was underwhelming in 55.6 snaps as a rookie, or by this year’s 2nd round pick Kingsley Suamataia. It’s possible neither one is an upgrade on Smith, but both at least have more upside.

Unfortunately, the Chiefs are stuck with Jawaan Taylor at right tackle, as he’s guaranteed 20 million in the 2nd year of a massive 4-year, 80 million dollar deal the Chiefs gave him last off-season. Taylor was never worth that kind of money, receiving grades of 63.7, 56.5, 60.4, and 58.7 in four seasons with the Jaguars, who made him a 2nd round pick in 2019, but last year was a career worst year for him, so he could be a little bit better in 2024, if only by default. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he got benched mid-season if he doesn’t turn it around though, despite his salary, either for whoever loses the left tackle battle, or for backup right tackle Lucas Niang, a 2021 3rd round pick who showed promise with a 64.6 grade across 524 snaps (9 starts) as a rookie, but who has since played just 69 mediocre snaps in the past two seasons.

The interior of this offensive line is still good though, as the trio of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith have been together for three seasons and have all been above average during that stretch. Humphrey and Smith were both draft picks in 2021, going in the 2nd round and 6th round respectively, while Thuney was added in free agency that off-season on a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal. Humphrey is actually coming off of a down year with a 78.2 PFF grade, as compared to 91.4 and 90.0 in his first two seasons in the league. He has a good chance to bounce back in 2024 though and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better centers in the league, still only in his age 25 season. 

Smith isn’t quite as good, but he’s still had PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, and 72.2 over the past three seasons respectively and should continue playing around that level, or possibly even better, still only in his age 25 season in 2024. Thuney, meanwhile, has finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons, though he’s now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline. He should remain an above average starter even if he does decline, but his best days could be behind him at this point. 

The trio of Humphrey, Smith, and Thuney have missed a combined three games over the past three seasons, none of which were last season, so depth hasn’t really been needed behind them, but the Chiefs would be in trouble if any of them missed an extended period of time, as their top interior reserve options are 5th round rookie Hunter Nourzad, 7th round rookie CJ Hanson, and 2022 undrafted free agent Mike Caliendo, who struggled mightily in the first 64 snaps of his career last season. The Chiefs should still have a strong interior of their offensive line, possibly even better than a year ago if Creed Humphrey can bounce back to his 2021-2022 form, but the tackle position is likely to remain a position of weakness, barring breakout seasons from young players, and depth is a concern.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

While the Chiefs’ wide receivers and offensive tackles were not as good in 2023 as they had been in the past, running back Isiah Pacheco took a step forward. His YPC average dropped from 4.88 in 2022, when he was a rookie, to 4.56 in 2023, but that was because his blocking wasn’t as good, as his yards after contact increased from 3.00 YPC to 3.04 YPC. He also saw a bigger workload, going from 170 carries to 205 carries, and he had much a higher broken tackle rate, with 37 broken tackles, as compared to just 20 in 2022. Overall, he went from a 74.6 PFF grade as a rookie to a 82.3 PFF grade in 2023.

Pacheco also saw a big increase in passing game work, going from a 13/130/0 slash line in 2022 to a 44/244/2 slash line in 2023, although his yards per route run average was still mediocre, going from 0.88 as a rookie to 0.91 last season. Passing down specialist Jerick McKinnon, who had a 25/192/4 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average last season, is no longer with the team, leaving Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the only back behind Pacheco and he’ll be a pure backup, rather than a passing down specialist, so Pacheco could see even more receiving production in 2024, though he’ll probably remain inefficient in that aspect.

Edwards-Helaire was a first round pick in 2020, but has mostly been a bust, with just a 4.18 YPC average and 12 touchdowns on 441 carries in four seasons in the league, including just 3.72 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 141 carries over the past two seasons since Pacheco took his starting job, but the Chiefs did opt to bring him back as a backup this off-season on a 1-year, 1.7 million dollar deal. He won’t see a big role unless Pacheco gets hurt, but he’s their only good backup option, so he should see at least a few touches per game. Behind him, the only other Chiefs running back who isn’t an undrafted free agent with no NFL carries is Keontay Ingram, who has averaged just 2.16 YPC on 62 carries in two seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2022. Pacheco is a solid starter and Edwards-Helaire isn’t a bad backup, but this is a thin backfield.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

A big reason for the Chiefs’ defensive success last season was a dominant season they got out of interior defender Chris Jones. Not only did Jones have 10.5 sacks of his own, while adding 21 sacks and a 15.6% pressure rate, ridiculous numbers for an interior pass rusher, but he also frequently drew double teams, allowing the Chiefs’ edge defenders to get frequent one-on-ones, which led to the Chiefs finishing 2nd in the NFL with 57 sacks in 2023. Jones wasn’t nearly as good against the run, but he still had an overall 84.1 PFF grade on 739 snaps.

Jones is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline, but, even if he drops off a little bit, he should remain one of the top interior defenders in the league, given that he’s starting from such a high base point. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Jones has exceeded a 70 PFF grade in all eight seasons in the league, including seven straight seasons above 80, while averaging 725 snaps per season in those seven seasons. In total, he has 75.5 sacks, 104 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 123 career games, with 67 sacks, 92 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 91 games in the past six seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he should continue playing at a high level and it’s possible he could avoid declining for at least another year.

The rest of the Chiefs’ interior defenders aren’t nearly as good though, as the other three interior defenders who saw significant action, Derrick Nnadi (500 snaps), Tershawn Wharton (401 snaps), and Matt Dickerson (190 snaps), all finished with grades below 60 on PFF. Wharton was at least a decent pass rusher, with a 6.7% pressure rate, but Nnadi had just a 3.8% pressure rate, Dickerson had just a 1.1% pressure rate, and none of the three played well against the run. All three of them remain on the roster in 2024 and should play similar roles.

Nnadi has been better against the run in the past, but he only has a 4.6% pressure rate in six seasons in the league and he has finished below 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons. At best, he’ll be a capable base package player, but he could easily continue struggling like he has in recent years. Wharton has always been a decent pass rusher, with a 7.0% pressure rate in four seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020, but he’s finished below 60 in run defense grade in all four seasons. He should remain a similar player in 2024, a decent, but unspectacular situational pass rusher who would likely struggle if forced into a bigger role. Matt Dickerson, meanwhile, is a 2018 undrafted free agent who has only played 566 mediocre snaps in six seasons in the league. Chris Jones elevates this group significantly by himself, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

To make up for their lack of depth on the interior, the Chiefs will likely use three defensive ends together frequently in sub packages, with one lined up on the interior, most likely either Mike Danna or Charles Omenihu, who both played in that capacity last season. George Karlaftis led Chiefs edge defenders with 755 snaps played and 10.5 sacks. He also had 5 hits and a 14.1% pressure rate, although he benefited significantly from Chris Jones drawing double teams on the interior and he also struggled against the run, so he finished with just a 64.0 PFF grade overall. A first round pick in 2022, Karlaftis struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 729 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to make his third season in the league in 2024 the best of his career thus far.

Danna was second among Chiefs edge defenders with 745 snaps played in 2023 and he had a solid 67.0 PFF grade. His pass rush productivity was underwhelming, but that’s because he lined up frequently on the interior, where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback from, and he still finished the season with 6.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.8% pressure rate, which isn’t bad considering the hybrid role he played in. A 2020 5th round pick, Danna also had a 67.4 PFF grade on 471 snaps in 2022, with 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, when he lined up almost exclusively on the edge. Danna also had a 61.8 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and a 61.7 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2021. He’s an unspectacular player, but he’s solid and he’s only in his age 27 season. The Chiefs kept him on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, a fair value for a useful contributor.

Charles Omenihu only played 403 snaps last season, but he was limited to just 11 games by suspension and will likely have a higher snap count in more games in 2024. He’s mostly a pass rush specialist though, finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all five seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all five seasons. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past three seasons, exceeding 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 11.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 43 games, despite seeing frequent action on the interior in sub packages.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah also will likely see a higher snap count in 2024, after the 2023 1st round pick only played 218 snaps as a rookie, with 61 of them coming in a meaningless week 18 game when the Chiefs’ seeding was already locked up. Anudike-Uzomah didn’t fare well in his limited action with a 52.1 PFF grade and a 7.4% pressure rate, but he has the upside to be a lot better in year two. Anudike-Uzomah and Omenihu seeing more action will likely come at the expense of Mike Danna’s and to a lesser extent George Karlaftis’ playing time, but all four players should rotate frequently and see significant snap counts. It’s an unspectacular group overall, but they have plenty of depth. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs lost linebacker Willie Gay in free agency this off-season, after he played 625 snaps last season, but he probably won’t be missed, for a few reasons. For one, Gay struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade in 2023. On top of that, the Chiefs also have good depth at the position, and they should get a healthier season out of Nick Bolton, who was limited to 441 snaps in 8 games last season. When Bolton is healthy, he’s their best linebacker. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Bolton flashed a lot of potential with a 69.2 PFF grade on 623 snaps as a rookie, then broke out with a 75.7 PFF grade on 1,118 snaps in an every down role in 2022, and before falling back to a 69.2 PFF grade in his injury plagued 2023 season. Still only in his age 24 season, Bolton has a lot of upside and should either bounce back in 2024 or possibly have the best season yet of his career.

Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal are the other two linebackers who will play significant snaps for the Chiefs in 2024. Tranquill had a 70.5 PFF grade across 579 snaps in 2023, playing in an every down capacity when Bolton was out. That was a career best year for him, but he also had a 66.5 PFF grade across 977 snaps with the Chargers in 2022 and he has finished above 60 on PFF in all four healthy seasons of his career, so he should be a capable every down linebacker at worst in 2024. 

Chenal, meanwhile, is a run stopping specialist who has PFF grades of 66.0 and 76.5 across snap counts of 262 and 446 since going in the third round in 2022, with 370 snaps on run plays, as opposed to 338 snaps on pass plays. He should play a similar role as the third linebacker in 2023 and he should continue being an effective role player. This is an above average linebacking corps overall, with Bolton as a high upside every down player, Tranquill as a solid starter, and Leo Chenal as a useful role player.

Grade: B+

Secondary

If the Chiefs’ defense isn’t as good this season as it was a year ago, it will be because they lost talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who had a 71.1 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Chiefs franchise tagged Sneed, but realistically could afford to keep him given all of their other long-term financial commitments, so they ended up trading him for a 3rd round pick to the Titans, who extended him on a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid cornerback in the league. 

The Chiefs will miss Sneed, but they have some promising options to replace him. Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams flashed potential in limited roles at cornerback last season, with a PFF grade on 66.1 snaps and a 73.0 PFF grade on 440 snaps and 321 snaps respectively, while 2023 4th round pick Chamarri Conner flashed potential with a 72.7 PFF grade on 305 snaps at safety last season and could play more cornerback in 2023. All have upside, but they all have downside as well, as Watson is a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 56.1 PFF grade on 604 snaps as a rookie, Williams is a 2022 4th round pick who was underwhelming with a 60.6 PFF grade on 437 snaps as a rookie, while Conner could struggle to make the position change.

Conner could also compete for a starting job at safety, where Bryan Cook and Justin Reid are penciled in as the starters, but could both be upgraded. Cook was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and was decent with a 64.3 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie and then received a 65.2 PFF grade as a starter in 2023, before his season was ended by injury after 593 snaps and 12 starts. Assuming he’s past his injury, Cook has the upside to have his best year yet in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee and it’s possible he remains only a marginal starter.

Justin Reid, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade in 16 starts (981 snaps) in 2023. He’s been better in the past, but he’s also been inconsistent for most of his career, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 in twice. He’s still only in his age 27 season and could be significantly better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but that’s not a guarantee. Both Reid and Cook have upside, but it’s also possible neither is better than they were a year ago, in which case they’d be an underwhelming starting duo.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have Trent McDuffie, who was actually their best cornerback a year ago, ranking 7th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 82.9 grade in 16 starts. A first round pick in 2022, McDuffie also had a 73.6 grade on 683 snaps as a rookie. Still only in his age 24 season in his third season in the league in 2024, McDuffie could still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t improve further this season, he should still remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He elevates a secondary that otherwise has upside, but a lot of downside and that should miss L’Jarius Sneed, possibly in a big way if their young cornerbacks can’t step up.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs’ offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the rest of the Patrick Mahomes era, as their offensive supporting cast was the worst of Mahomes’ career, but their defense was the best of Mahomes’ career and, overall, the Chiefs were still good enough to win their third Super Bowl in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. In 2024, their defense could take a step back, but their offensive supporting cast should be better and they still look like one of the best teams in the league and on the short list of contenders to win the Super Bowl, which would be the first three-peat in NFL history. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Chiefs after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

The Raiders were a mediocre team in 2023, finishing 8-9 with a -0.29 yards per play differential and a -1.46% first down rate differential. They did go 5-4 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who is now officially the head coach, but they weren’t that much better with Pierce, as their yards per play differential only improves to -0.20 when you weight their late season games higher and their first down rate differential only improves to -1.01%.

The biggest thing the Raiders needed to do this off-season to get out of mediocrity was to find a franchise quarterback. Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo began last season as the starter and was somewhat effective at moving the ball downfield, with a 65.1% completion percentage and a 7.13 YPA average, but he was also careless with the ball and had 7 interceptions to just 9 touchdowns in six starts. Garoppolo was replaced by 4th round rookie Aiden O’Connell, who took better care of the ball, with a 12/7 TD/INT ratio in 10 starts, but he had 62.1% completion percentage for an average of just 6.47 YPA and, ultimately, he still profiles as a long-term backup. Between the two quarterbacks, the Raiders had a team QB rating of just 80.1, 28th in the NFL.

Without many good veteran options available to them this off-season, the Raiders best path to a franchise quarterback was the draft, but unfortunately for them they had the 13th pick in a draft that saw six quarterbacks go in the top-12, leaving the Raiders without a good option. They did sign veteran Gardner Minshew to a 2-year, 25 million dollar deal and he should be better than what the Raiders had at the quarterback position a year ago, but he’s still a low end starting option, with 62.6% completion, 6.74 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions in 37 career starts, while finishing with grades of 70.5, 67.8, 61.7, 56.1, and 62.0 from PFF in five seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2019.

O’Connell remains as the backup and would likely continue being mediocre if forced into significant action again in 2024, a scenario that would only happen if Minshew missed extended time or happened to struggle mightily. O’Connell could be a little better in year two, but he doesn’t have great physical tools or a high upside, so it’s unlikely he ever develops into more than a solid backup. Overall, the Raiders have one of the most underwhelming quarterback rooms in the league, even if they should be marginally better than a year ago.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

With no quarterback available that was worth taking with the 13th pick, the Raiders instead used that selection on tight end Brock Bowers. It was a bit of a surprise because the Raiders had just used a second round on Michael Mayer in the 2023 NFL Draft, but Mayer had an underwhelming rookie season, with a 27/304/2 slash line and a 1.11 yards per route run average in a part-time role, and both he and Bowers have the versatility to line up in different spots and they will probably see the field at the same time with regularity.

The Raiders two tight ends should help mask their lack of depth at wide receiver, where they have a talented duo of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but didn’t have another wide receiver with more than 331 receiving yards last season. Adams had a 79.1 PFF grade, a 103/1144/8 slash line, and a 1.97 yards per route run average, but his PFF grade was actually his lowest since 2016, his receiving yardage total was just lowest since 2019, and his yards per route run average was his lowest since 2017. 

One of the best receivers in the league in his prime, Adams averaged a 122/1568/14 slash line per 17 games with a 2.52 yards per route run average from 2018-2022, but he seems to be starting to decline now and is going into his age 32 season in 2024, which is more of a concern than you might think. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. 

Even if Adams continues declining, he should still be an above average receiver, but his best days are probably behind him at this point. Meyers doesn’t have the high end talent that Adams has, but he’s been a consistent #2 caliber receiver for the past few seasons, averaging 1.77 yards per route run and 801 receiving yards per season over the past four seasons. Still in his prime, going into his age 28 season, Meyers should continue playing at a similar level in 2024. 

Tre Tucker was third on the team in receiving yardage with just a 19/331/2 slash line last season, but he actually had a decent 1.48 yards per route run average, splitting time as the #3 receiver with veteran Hunter Renfrow who had just a 25/255/0 slash line and a 0.98 yards per route run average. Renfrow is gone, which could free up more playing time for Tucker, a 2023 3rd round pick who is going into his second season in the league, but the Raiders did add a pair of veterans in free agency, Michael Gallup and Jalen Guyton, and they figure to use their two tight ends together frequently, which limits Tucker’s receiving upside.

Gallup is the better of the two veteran options, but he hasn’t been the same since a torn ACL that he suffered at the end of the 2021 season. Gallup surpassed 800 yards receiving in back-to-back years in 2019 and 2020 and is only in his age 28 season, so he could theoretically have bounce back potential, but he hasn’t surpassed 500 receiving yards in any of his past three seasons, while averaging just 1.13 yards per route run, so it’s unlikely he ever regains his old form. 

Guyton, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in five seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2019 and he has caught just 12 passes over the past two seasons combined, so he probably won’t be anything more than a deep reserve. Adams and Meyers still figure to be the clear #1 and #2 options, even though Adams’ age is becoming a concern, but the Raiders should have better depth than a year ago, with Tre Tucker going into his second season in the league, Brock Bowers being added in the draft and Michael Gallup likely at least being an upgrade on Hunter Renfrow.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Raiders let their long-time feature back Josh Jacobs walk in free agency this off-season, with Jacobs signing an expensive 4-year, 48 million dollar deal with the Packers, but part of the reason the Raiders let him leave is because they have a good internal replacement option in Zamir White. Jacobs was better than the 3.45 YPC average on 233 carries that he had last season would suggest, as he had a solid 45.9% carry success rate, but that was still a down year for Jacobs, and White was better than Jacobs in both metrics, averaging 4.34 YPC and a 51.0% carry success rate. White also had 3.21 yards per carry after contact, as opposed to just 2.35 for Jacobs. White did that in a much smaller sample size, with just 104 carries on the season, after just 17 carries as a 4th round rookie in 2022, but he has a lot of potential and should at least be an adequate replacement for what Jacobs did in a down year in 2023.

The Raiders added veteran Alexander Mattison to give them insurance behind White, but he’s been underwhelming in his career and he’ll probably be a clear #2 back. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Mattison has averaged just 4.06 YPC on 584 career carries, including just 3.82 YPC over the past three seasons combined, and he also has a carry success rate of just 43.7% for his career. Additionally, Mattison has averaged just 0.90 yards per route run in his career, so he’s probably not a candidate for a big passing down role. 

White had a decent 1.09 yards per route run average in 2023, but he’s still a downgrade from Jacobs in that aspect, as Jacobs averaged 1.24 yards per route run. White will see some passing down work as the lead back, but I wouldn’t expect him to be that productive in that aspect of the game. The Raiders do have passing down specialist Ameer Adbullah, who will likely see a significant situational role. Abdullah is going into his age 31 season and isn’t a real candidate for significant carries, with just 102 carries over the past six seasons combined and a career 3.93 YPC average, but he does have 82 catches over the past three seasons combined and a career 1.24 yards per route run average and, with neither White nor Mattison being great receiver, expect Abdullah to be utilized situationally. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Raiders’ offensive line was above average in 2024, ranking 12th in pass blocking grade on PFF and 14th in run blocking grade, but they could take a little bit of a step back in 2024. The Raiders lost a pair of offensive line starters this off-season, both of whom had above average seasons in 2023, left guard Greg Van Roten, who had a 75.3 PFF grade in 17 starts, and right tackle Jermaine Eleumanor, who had a 68.7 PFF grade in 14 starts. To replace them, the Raiders will start second round rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson at left guard and will promote 2022 7th round pick Thayer Munford to the right tackle job, after he impressed as the swing tackle over the past two seasons, posting PFF grades of 63.2 and 64.1 respectively across 14 total starts.

Powers-Johnson has a lot of upside, but will almost definitely be a downgrade from Van Roten as a rookie, while Munford could be an adequate replacement for Eleumanor, but he’s a projection to a larger role and promoting him to the starting lineup thins out the Raiders’ offensive line depth considerably. To try to replenish offensive line depth, the Raiders used a 3rd round pick on DJ Glaze and signed veterans Cody Whitehair and Andrus Peat in free agency, but it’s unlikely that any will be as good of reserves as Munford has been over the past two seasons.

Whitehair and Peat have plenty of experience, starting 118 games over 8 seasons in the league and 102 games over 9 seasons in the league respectively, Whitehair at guard and center and Peat at tackle and guard. Whitehair finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first 7 seasons in the league, but he fell to a 45.0 PFF grade in 2023 and now is going into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, while Peat has finished below 60 on PFF in four the past six seasons and now heads into his age 31 season. They’re not bad reserve options and neither is the rookie Glaze, but none of them are as good of reserves as Thuyer was before being promoted.

The rest of this offensive line stays the same from a year ago, with Kolton Miller at left tackle, Andre James at center, and Dylan Parham at right guard. All three are at least capable starters, but Parham is the least impressive of the bunch, with PFF grades of 61.9 and 60.4 in two seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2022, while making all 34 starts. He’s still young and could have untapped upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see 2024 be the best season of his career yet, but James and Miller still look like better players.

James is coming off of a strong 2023 season, with a 74.6 PFF grade, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, so he could regress somewhat in 2024. Undrafted in 2019, James became a starter in 2021 and received PFF grades of 64.1 and 62.8 in his first two seasons as a starter, so even if he does regress, he should at least be a capable starter. He’s also only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter in 2024, but it’s more likely that he’s unable to repeat the best season of his career.

Kolton Miller is clearly the best of the bunch. A first round pick in 2018, Miller took a couple years to develop, but he’s finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons and above 80 in three straight seasons. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. He significantly elevates an offensive line that could otherwise be underwhelming, with Jackson Powers-Johnson being a rookie, Andre James a candidate to regress, Dylan Parham only being a capable, but unspectacular starter thus far in his career, and Thayer Munford never being a full-season starter before.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Raiders’ defense was their better side of the ball last season, ranking 8th in DVOA, but they also had next to no injuries on this side of the ball, which is unlikely to happen again. If injuries knock out any of their key players for an extended period of time in 2024, it could be tough for them to repeat last season’s performance. The most important player to stay healthy is edge defender Maxx Crosby, who is one of the best defensive players in the league and a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Fortunately, Crosby is also one of the most durable players in the league, never missing a game in five seasons in the league, despite playing 57.2 snaps per game, including 59.6 snaps per game over the past four seasons, and 63.6 snaps per game over the past two seasons. In 2022, Crosby ranked 1st in the NFL among edge defenders with 1,082 snaps played and in 2023 he again ranked 1st among edge defenders with 1,080. He also remains effective despite his snap counts, receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.1, and 92.1 over the past three seasons respectively, dominating against the run and as a pass rusher. In total, he has 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 49 games over those three seasons. Still only in his age 27 season, I wouldn’t expect anything to change in 2024, barring an unexpected injury. 

The Raiders also got a great season out of Malcolm Koonce on the other side of Crosby, as he had a 81.3 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate, despite only being a part-time player (501 total snaps played). Koonce was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and always had potential, but injuries and underwhelming performance limited him to just 116 snaps in his first two seasons before his surprising breakout season in 2023. Koonce is a one-year wonder and could easily regress or miss more time with injury in 2024, but he’s also only in his age 26 season and has always had talent, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue playing at an above average level, even if he isn’t as good as a year ago.

The Raiders could give Koonce an expanded role in 2024, but that might make it more likely that he regresses and his role will largely be dependent on what the Raiders do with Tyree Wilson, who they selected 7th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Wilson had a tough rookie year, missing valuable time in the off-season with injury, falling behind Koonce on the depth chart, and then performing poorly with a 47.1 PFF grade on 493 snaps, struggling against the run and adding just 3.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. 

Wilson has the upside to be a lot better in year two though and he also has the size (6-6 275) to play inside, so, with Koonce breaking out opposite Crosby, the Raiders could line Wilson up inside more often in pass rushing situations in 2024 if they feel that would get their best players on the field. Wilson will still see some action on the edge though, as the Raiders don’t have much depth behind him, Koonce, and Crosby. 

Janarius Robinson and Elerson Smith are the only other edge defenders on the roster who aren’t former undrafted free agents with no NFL experience and Robinson has played just 78 snaps in three seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, while Elerson Smith was also a 4th round pick in 2021 and has played just 121 career snaps, none of which came last season. Maxx Crosby elevates this group significantly by himself, while Malcolm Koonce and Tyree Wilson are young players with upside, Koonce coming off of a breakout season in 2023 and Wilson going 7th overall in last year’s draft, but the Raiders’ lack of depth behind those three hurts their overall grade at this position a little bit.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

One reason the Raiders could have as good of a defensive season as they had last year, even with injuries likely to strike more than they did a year ago, is the addition of interior defender Christian Wilkins, who they added on a 4-year, 110 million dollar deal this off-season. It’s a steep price to pay, with Wilkins now being the second highest paid interior defender in the league, but he could be worth it. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2019, Wilkins finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in Miami, including three straight seasons over 70, culminating with a 2023 season in which he had a career best year as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. 

Wilkins had never been that good as a pass rusher before, but he does have 20.5 sacks, 33 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 81 career games, while also playing the run at an above average level. He’s also a durable every down player, missing just two games due to injury in his career, while averaging 48.7 snaps per game and 790 snaps per season. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, Wilkins should play at a similar level in 2024. Even if he doesn’t match his career best pass rush season from 2023, he should still be an above average every down interior defender.

Wilkins should be an upgrade on Jerry Tillery (67.7 PFF grade on 504 snaps) and Bilal Nichols (51.6 PFF grade on 616 snaps), who weren’t retained this off-season. The Raiders did bring back Adam Butler and John Jenkins from last season and they’ll probably get more interior snaps from Tyree Wilson, as well as more snaps out of Byron Young, a 2023 3rd round pick who struggled on 99 snaps as a rookie, but who has the upside to be a lot better in year two in 2024.

Butler and Jenkins were decent last season, with PFF grades of 526 and 595 on snap counts of 60.1 and 61.2. Butler has been mediocre most of his career though, finishing below 60 on PFF in his other six seasons in the league, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so he’s unlikely to get any better and will probably be mediocre at best. Jenkins, meanwhile, is a career role player who has never played more than the 595 snaps he played last season, playing an average of 315 snaps per season, and now he’s heading into his age 35 season. I would expect both to be underwhelming in 2024. The addition of Christian Wilkins elevates this group, but the rest of this group is pretty mediocre.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Raiders linebacking corps remains the same from a year ago, but there is some potential for regression from top linebacker Robert Spillane, who broke out with a 77.0 PFF grade on 1,100 snaps in 2023. Prior to last season, Spillane, a 2018 undrafted free agent, had never played more than 588 snaps in a season as a part-time linebacker specializing in stopping the run. In 2023, Spillane’s run defense was still by far his best attribute and he actually struggled in coverage a little bit with a 58.9 coverage grade, but his run defense more than made up for it and he played an every down role. Spillane should be an every down player again in 2024, but it’s fair to question whether he can repeat the by far best season of his career again, after previously never exceeding a 66.3 overall grade on PFF in any of his other five seasons in the league.

Divine Deablo also remains in a significant role, after playing 771 snaps a year ago, but he wasn’t nearly as good, finishing with a 60.6 PFF grade. A 2021 3rd round pick, Deablo has been decent, but unspectacular throughout his career, with a 63.2 PFF grade on 297 snaps as a rookie and a 58.4 PFF grade on 463 snaps in his 2nd season in the league in 2022. Now going into his 4th season in the league and his age 26 season, it’s possible he still has some untapped potential and has his best season yet in 2024, but it’s unlikely he’ll be more than a solid starter even if he does take a step forward.

Luke Masterson also returns as the top reserve, after flashing a lot of potential with a 86.9 PFF grade on 182 snaps last season, although that comes after the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled mightily with a 30.8 PFF grade on 344 snaps as a rookie. Going into his 3rd season in the league in 2024, Masterson’s NFL experience is still a small sample size and it remains to be seen what kind of player he would be if forced into significant action for an extended period of time, but most likely he won’t continue the level of play he had in very limited action last season. The Raiders also used a 5th round pick on Tommy Eichenberg to give themselves additional depth, but he most likely will be behind Masterson in the pecking order. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but, in the likely scenario that Robert Spillane regresses, it will be an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Raiders’ cornerback room has undergone significant changes in the past year. Going into last season, their top-3 cornerbacks were Nate Hobbs, Marcus Peters, and Amik Robertson. Peters was cut mid-season, despite receiving a 68.8 PFF grade across 732 snaps, because the Raiders were out of contention and didn’t want him to hit salary escalators in his contract. Peters was replaced by Jack Jones, who was claimed off waivers from the Patriots, with whom he had a falling out with the coaching staff. Robertson then left as a free agent this off-season and was not really replaced, after a 2023 season in which he was decent with a 63.4 PFF grade on 674 snaps.

Nate Hobbs is the one constant, but one constant with him is injuries, as the 2021 5th round pick has missed 11 games in three seasons in the league, while never playing all 17 games in a season. He’s been missed when he’s been on the field, as he’s mostly been an above average starter throughout his career, with PFF grades of 79.1, 60.9, and 69.0. He’s still only going into his age 25 season and has the upside to have a great season in 2024 if he can finally stay healthy, but more likely he’ll miss at least some time with injury at some point.

Jack Jones also has a lot of upside, as the 2022 4th round pick has received PFF grades of 74.7 and 71.6 in his two seasons in the league, but he’s also only played 905 snaps across the two seasons, due to injuries, off-the-field problems, and problems with his coaches. He could develop into an above average starter long-term if he can stay on the field and stay out of trouble, but he’s also a projection to a season-long role and comes with a lot of concerns.

With Robertson gone, the third cornerback job will likely either go to 2023 4th round pick Jakorian Bennett or veteran Brandon Facyson to start the season. Facyson is much more experienced, with 17 starts in 75 games in six seasons in the league, but he’s going into his age 30 season now and he’s mostly struggled throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of the past four seasons, and, as a result of that, he actually played behind the rookie Bennett a year ago, seeing just 44 snaps to Bennett’s 361.

Bennett struggled mightily in his limited action though, receiving a 42.4 PFF grade, and, while he has the upside to be better in year two, he hasn’t shown anything that would suggest he’s deserving of a bigger role and he will likely struggle in that role, assuming he continues being ahead of the veteran Facyson on the depth chart. The Raiders also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on cornerback Decamerion Richardson and he could see a significant role at some point as a rookie, but he is pretty raw and would almost definitely struggle in that role.

While there have been a lot of changes at cornerback, things remain pretty much the same at the safety spot, with Tre’von Moehrig and Marcus Epps remaining the starters. Moehrig was a 2nd round pick in 2021, has made 47 starts in three seasons in the league, and has shown a lot of potential, but he’s also been pretty inconsistent, with PFF grades of 72.5, 54.1, and 70.2 across the three seasons respectively. Only going into his age 25 season, Moehrig still has a lot of upside long-term if he can improve his consistency and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that happened and he had another above average season in 2024, but he could also regress, which would hurt this secondary.

Epps, meanwhile, is a 5-year veteran who has been a full-time starter over the past two seasons, but he’s been pretty mediocre, with PFF grades of 56.6 and 65.4 respectively. The 2019 6th round pick showed a lot of promise in smaller roles earlier in his career, but he hasn’t been able to carry that over to bigger roles and it would surprise me if he was more than a decent starter in 2024. The Raiders also lack depth behind Moehrig and Epps, as their top two reserves a year ago were Isaiah Pola-Mao, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has played 211 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, and Chris Smith, a 2023 5th round pick who played just 22 snaps as a rookie. Both would likely struggle if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This secondary is a young group with potential, with Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones, and Tre’von Moehrig all potentially being above average starters, but they come with a lot of downside as well and the rest of the group is very underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Raiders were a mediocre team a year ago. This year, they should have a slight upgrade at the quarterback position, but they still have one of the worst quarterback rooms in the league and their roster around the quarterback isn’t good enough to compensate. They’re also unlikely to have as few injuries as they did a year ago, when they had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. Overall, it should be tough for this team to qualify for the post-season in the loaded AFC. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Raiders after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

The Chargers transitioned perfectly at the quarterback position, going from 14 years of a future Hall of Fame quarterback Philip Rivers as their starter (2006-2019) to Justin Herbert, the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, who looks like he’s on a similar career track. The Chargers never made a Super Bowl with Rivers though, due to a variety of issues around the quarterback. The Chargers always had stars on both sides of the ball during Rivers’ career, but they struggled with injuries, a lack of depth when injuries struck, and coaching. Now four years into Herbert’s career, the Chargers have had similar issues, leading to Herbert going just 30-32 through four seasons with no playoff wins. 

Herbert hasn’t been the problem, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, while receiving PFF grades of 79.9, 90.0, 78.6, and 85.5, but they haven’t had the right supporting cast around him, nor have they had the right coach. Anthony Lynn was fired after Herbert’s rookie year and his replacement Brandon Staley was fired late last season, meaning the Chargers are going onto their third head coach of Herbert’s brief career, but fortunately they landed a great one in Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in his first stint as an NFL head coach with the 49ers from 2011-2014 and who has a career 147-52 record at the collegiate level with a National Championship, consistently getting the most out of his players at every stop.

Harbaugh is the right man for the job, but it could be a couple years before he gets this team in contention. Not only is this team coming off of an underwhelming 5-12 season, but the Chargers had salary cap issues this off-season and had to part ways with several key players, while not having a lot of financial flexibility to replace them. Herbert is coming off of the worst statistical career of his career, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, but it wasn’t really his fault because the Chargers had a lot of issues around him on offense and he still finished 9th among quarterbacks in the league in terms of PFF grade.

Herbert also missed four games with injury last season and was replaced by Easton Stick, who lost all of those games, while completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.49 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Stick was a 5th round pick in 2019, but last season was the first action of his career. Without much financial flexibility this off-season, the Chargers brought Stick back as the backup for another year. You could do worse than him as a backup, but you could also do a lot better and if Herbert misses more time with injury, the Chargers would be in a lot of trouble. The Chargers will obviously be hoping that doesn’t happen, because Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Chargers’ receiving corps was an issue last season. Going into the season, it didn’t look like an issue because they had veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who were just two years removed from being one of the few wide receiver duos in the league to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2021, and they added 2023 first round pick Quentin Johnston to the mix as well. Williams and Allen played well when healthy, with yards per route run averages of 2.33 and 2.36, but Williams went down for the season after 3 games, while Allen missed 4 games of his own. On top of that, Quentin Johnston struggled as a rookie, finishing with just a 38/431/2 slash line and a 0.88 yards per route run average, despite plenty of opportunity.

Things are not looking better for this group in 2024. To get out of their tough cap situation, Allen and Williams were both let go this off-season, Allen in a trade for a 4th round pick and Williams as a cap casualty, owed 23.1 million and 20 million respectively going into their age 32 and age 30 seasons respectively. To replace them, the Chargers will need more out of Quentin Johnston in his second season in the league and they will also be hoping for significant contributions from top holdover Joshua Palmer, second round rookie Ladd McConkey, and veteran free agent acquisition DJ Chark. 

Johnston has a lot of talent and could be significantly better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee. Palmer is their top returning receiver with a 38/581/2 slash line and a 1.71 yards per route run average, but the 2021 3rd round pick has never been a full-time starter and he only has a career 1.36 yards per route run average. McConkey has upside, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Chark is experienced, but has just a 1.39 yards per route run average in his 6-year career and he’s missed 30 games with injury in those 6 seasons. The Chargers also have 2023 5th round pick Derius Davis, who might have some upside, but he played just 149 snaps as a rookie and averaged just 0.90 yards per route run. Overall, it’s a pretty underwhelming group.

The Chargers can’t expect much out of their tight ends either. Gerald Everett wasn’t great as their starting tight end last season, with a 51/411/3 slash line and a 1.26 yards per route run average, but he’s no longer with the team and the tight ends the Chargers added to replace him, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, both look like downgrades. Dissly has averaged just 1.23 yards per route run and 251 yards per season over the past four seasons, while Hurst has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, was even worse in 2023, when he had a 18/184/1 slash line with a 0.82 yards per route run, and is now going into his age 31 season.

The Chargers still have Donald Parham, who had a 27/285/4 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average as the #2 tight end last season, but that was a career high in yardage for the career backup and he only has a career 1.32 yards per route run average, even in a limited role. This looks like one of the worst overall receiving corps in the league, even worse than a year ago, when they at least had Keenan Allen for most of the season before he got hurt.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

With the Chargers’ receiving corps being the way it is, their best path to improving on offense this season is to have a better running game and offensive line. In 2023, the Chargers ranked 27th in the NFL with 3.81 YPC, while their offensive line ranked dead last in PFF run blocking grade, though they at least ranked 13th in pass blocking grade. To improve their offensive line, the Chargers used the 5th overall pick on Joe Alt, who will instantly slot in at right tackle, and signed center Bradley Bozeman to a 1-year, 1.125 million dollar deal in free agency.

Alt should immediately be an upgrade over incumbent Trey Pipkins, who was marginal with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Pipkins has mostly been a marginal starter throughout his career (41 starts in five seasons in the league) and is best suited to be a swing tackle, which he will be now. Bozeman, meanwhile, should be a steal on a cheap 1-year deal, having finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons (76 starts). He’s going into his age 30 season now, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Will Clapp, who had a 56.7 PFF grade in 11 starts at center last season and who is no longer with the Chargers.

Guard was also a position of weakness in 2023 and, without any additions being made this off-season, the Chargers will instead be hoping for better play out of their incumbent starters, Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer. It’s very possible the Chargers get that, though both would probably still be underwhelming even in a best case scenario. Johnson has the most upside, as he was a first round pick in 2022, and he had a decent rookie year with a 64.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, before falling to a 57.6 grade in 2023. There’s a good chance he at least bounces back to his rookie year form in 2024 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his third season in the league be his best yet.

Salyer, on the other hand, was just a 6th round pick in 2022. He surprised as a rookie with a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts at left tackle as an injury replacement, but he couldn’t keep up that level of play in a new spot at right guard in 2023, finishing with a 54.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. Now going into his third season in the league in 2024, Salyer has bounce back potential, but it’s worth noting that he wasn’t highly drafted and that he’s playing a different position than where he originally found some success, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling. 

The Chargers will need better play out of Johnson and Salyer in 2024 because their only other options on the interior of their offensive line are Brenden James, a 2021 5th round pick who has played just 264 mediocre snaps in his career, and Jordan McFadden, a 2023 5th round pick, who struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 163 snaps as a rookie last season. Both are underwhelming options even as interior reserves, which is what they will be, barring injuries.

The Chargers best offensive lineman by far last season was left tackle Rashawn Slater, who had a 76.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, excelling in pass protection, with just 3 sacks and 7 hits allowed all season. A first round pick in 2021, Slater also excelled as a rookie with a 83.6 PFF grade, with a season mostly lost due to injury in 2022 in between (175 snaps played). Still only in his age 25 season, Slater should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and could potentially get even better, now in his fourth season in the league. The offensive line should be better with the additions of Joe Alt and Bradley Bozeman, as well as potential bounce back seasons from their guards Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer, but there are still some reasons to be concerned about this group.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another move the Chargers made this off-season towards trying to improve their running game was hiring offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who is one of the best running game offensive coordinators in the league. Roman has had a lot of success with mobile quarterbacks, getting career best years out of Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson over the past decade or so, starting as an NFL coordinator with Harbaugh and the 49ers. Justin Herbert isn’t the same kind of athlete those quarterbacks are, but he’s a good runner for a quarterback, with 4.07 YPC on 224 carries in four seasons in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he reached a new career high in carries, while becoming more efficient, with Roman now calling the shots.

The Chargers also overhauled their running back room this off-season, bringing in a couple backs from Roman’s last stop in Baltimore, Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. The Chargers’ run blocking was a big problem last season, but the running backs themselves were also a big part of the issue and, as such, the Chargers let their top two backs, Austin Ekeler (3.51 YPC on 179 carries) and Joshua Kelly (3.79 YPC on 107 carries) leave this off-season, replacing them with Edwards and Dobbins.

Edwards and Dobbins were teammates for the past four seasons in Baltimore, but weren’t active in the same game that often because of injuries, with Dobbins missing all but 9 games over the past three seasons, first tearing his ACL in 2021 and then tearing his achilles in 2023, and Edwards being limited to 26 games over that time period, also tearing his ACL around the same time as Dobbins did in 2021. Dobbins has shown plenty of potential in his career since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2020, averaging 5.76 YPC on 234 carries in 24 games, but it’s unclear if he’ll have the same level of explosiveness after two major injuries cost him most of the past three seasons. Dobbins also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson, who is the primary focus of opponents’ run defenses.

Edwards has a career 4.86 YPC average on 699 carries in 6 seasons in the league, but he also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson anymore. In the 24 games Dobbins has played in his career, Edwards has averaged 9.17 carries per game, as opposed to 9.75 carries per game for Dobbins and I would expect a similar split in 2024, though Edwards will probably end up leading the team in carries because he’s less likely to miss time with injury than Dobbins, never having any injury issues in his career aside from the torn ACL that cost him about a season and a half from 2021-2022.

Both backs are good fits for the scheme and, with the Chargers’ run blocking likely being a lot better this season, both backs should be significantly more effective on the ground than Ekeler and Kelley were a year ago. Neither Edwards nor Dobbins contribute much in the passing game, with career averages of 0.78 yards per route run and 0.59 yards per route run respectively, but Greg Roman’s offense doesn’t usually target running backs out of the backfield much anyway. 

If either Edwards or Dobbins misses more time with injury, the other would likely take on a much bigger role, with their backup being either 6th round rookie Kimani Vidal or 2022 4th round pick Isaiah Spiller, who has a career 2.49 YPC average on 55 carries. Both would be underwhelming options. This overhauled backfield isn’t a bad group and they should be more effective than the Chargers’ running backs a year ago, but they aren’t a great backfield either, lacking high end talent.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Chargers’ defense was also a problem a year ago and probably their biggest weakness was the interior defender position. Austin Johnson (641 snaps), Sebastian Joseph-Day (560 snaps), Morgan Fox (437 snaps), Nick Williams (399 snaps), Scott Matlock (266 snaps), and Otito Ogbonnia (223 snaps) all saw significant action at the interior defender spot for the Chargers last season and all finished with grades below 60 on PFF, some well below 60. Johnson, Joseph-Day, and Williams, who had grades of 45.7, 59.7, and 59.7, are no longer with the team, but the Chargers didn’t do much to replace them and this still figures to be a position of weakness in 2024.

Fox, Ogbonnia, and Matlock all figure to have significant roles and free agent addition Poona Ford and 4th round rookie Justin Eboigbe likely will as well. Ford was a good cheap signing on a 1-year, 1.79 million dollar deal. He only played 151 snaps in a deep position group with the Bills last season, but he finished above 60 on PFF in 4 of the previous 5 seasons with the Seahawks prior to joining the Bills, on an average of 570 snaps played per season. He’s at his best against the run, but isn’t a bad pass rusher, with 8.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 84 career games. He figures to at least have a base package role with the Chargers and could perform well in that capacity.

Morgan Fox is at least a useful interior pass rusher. He finished with an overall 58.0 PFF grade last season because of his issues against the run, but he did add 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s largely been the case for him throughout his career, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF as a run defender in six straight seasons, but has added 24 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate in 99 games. He should remain a similar player in 2024, though it’s a slight concern that he’s now going into his age 30 season.

The rest of this group should be mediocre at best, though they are young, so they at least have theoretical upside. The rookie Eboigbe could be a useful player long-term, but it would be a surprise if he contributed in a significant way in year one. Matlock was rookie last season, but he was only a 6th round pick and, even if he’s better in year two, he could still struggle, as he had a terrible 36.8 PFF grade last season. Ogbonnia was just a 5th round pick in 2022 and hasn’t shown much of anything in two years in the league, with PFF grades of 43.2 and 50.4 across 361 total snaps. It’s possible one takes a big step forward this season, but most likely they’ll all struggle. Even if they’re marginally better than a year ago, this should still be a weak position group.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position was supposed to be a big strength for the Chargers last season, with a dominant duo of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Mack held up his end of the bargain, dominating with a 91.8 PFF grade on 934 snaps, playing the run at a high level and adding 17 sacks, 12 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate, but Bosa was limited to just 320 snaps in 9 games due to injury. Bosa still played at a pretty high level when on the field, with a PFF grade, 6.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate, but he wasn’t at his best, after exceeding 80 on PFF in 6 of the previous 7 seasons. 

Bosa should bounce back in 2024 if he’s healthy, only going into his age 29 season, but he’s had injury issues for years, missing 38 games in eight seasons in the league, including 20 games over the past two seasons, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he missed more time this season. He should still give them more than he gave them a year ago, which would be a boost for this defense. Unfortunately, there’s a good chance Mack doesn’t give them as much as he did a year ago, now going into his age 33 season.

In fact, Mack looked like he was declining going into last season, receiving PFF grades of 73.0 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, while totaling 14 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 24 games, after finishing above 85 on PFF in the previous seven seasons, with 70.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 110 games in those seven seasons. Mack bounced back to his prime form in 2023, but he could easily regress significantly again in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

With Bosa missing significant time last season, the Chargers’ expected third edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu had to play 852 snaps and he did pretty well, finishing with a 71.0 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2023, Tuipulotu could be even better in year two, but he’ll probably play a smaller role, unless Mack or Bosa miss extended time with injury. The Chargers also added veteran Bud Dupree in free agency to give them additional depth.

Dupree is a 9-year veteran who has started 99 of the 119 games he’s played in his career, while averaging 48.0 snaps per game and 634 snaps per season, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’s best off in a reserve role. With Mack, Bosa, and Tuipulotu ahead of him on the depth chart, Dupree won’t play that many snaps in 2024, barring injury, which is a better role for him. This is a deep and talented edge defender group overall.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Eric Kendricks (847 snaps) and Kenneth Murray (968 snaps) were the Chargers top-2 linebackers a year ago and both are no longer with the team. Kendricks had a 72.3 PFF grade last season and was only let go because the Chargers had a tough cap situation and he was owed 6.5 million in what would have been his age 32 season in 2024. Murray, on the other hand, only had a 52.9 PFF grade, so he wouldn’t be missed too much, if not for the fact that the Chargers didn’t really replace him or Kendricks adequately. 

Added to the mix this off-season were Denzel Perryman, a free agent coming over on a cheap 1-year, 2.3 million dollar deal, and Junior Colson, a 3rd round rookie. The Chargers also could give bigger roles to 2023 3rd round pick Daiyan Henley, who played just 54 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Niemann, a 2021 6th round pick who has played just 322 snaps in three seasons in the league, 247 of which came last season. Perryman is by far the most experienced of the bunch, going into his 10th season in the league. 

Perryman has been a good run defender throughout his career, but he’s also consistently struggled in coverage and, as a result, only has played 38.8 snaps per game in his career. He’s also missed 39 games with injury in 9 seasons in the league and is now going into his age 32 season. He would be best as a pure base package run defender, but, given the state of this linebacking corps, he’ll probably have to play a bigger role, unless the young linebackers exceed expectations. This is an overall underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback was a problem for the Chargers’ defense last season as only one of their top-4 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played finished above 60 on PFF. That one cornerback was Asante Samuel, a 2021 2nd round pick who broke out with a 73.9 PFF grade on 1,111 snaps in 2023, after improving from a 56.4 PFF grade on 693 snaps as a rookie to a 63.6 PFF grade on 971 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022. Samuel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he’s also highly talented and only going into his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being an above average starter or even if he got better in 2024, now his 4th season in the league.

The Chargers didn’t retain Michael Davis, who struggled with a 56.5 PFF grade on 886 snaps in 15 games as the other starting cornerback in 2023, but his replacement, ex-Titan Kristian Fulton, isn’t necessarily going to be any better. Fulton was a 2nd round pick in 2020, but he was inconsistent throughout his four years in Tennessee, maxing out with a 66.1 PFF grade in 2021, missing 25 games due to injury, and finishing below 60 on PFF twice, including a career worst 46.4 PFF grade on 644 snaps in 12 games (11 starts) in 2023. Fulton is still relatively young in his age 26 season and was not a bad flier on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar contract, but time is running out for him to develop into even a consistently average starting cornerback.

Ja’Sir Taylor remains as the likely 3rd cornerback, despite finishing with a 56.2 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2023, in the first extended action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. It’s possible he could be better in his third season in the league in 2024, but he didn’t come into the league with a high upside and he’s really only likely to be their 3rd cornerback again because of the lack of a better option, with the Chargers other cornerback options being 2022 7th round pick Deane Leonard, who had a 57.3 PFF grade on 222 snaps in the first real action of his career in 2023, as well as rookies Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still, a pair of 5th round picks who would both almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie.

At safety, the Chargers finally got a healthy season out of Derwin James, after he had missed 32 games in the previous four seasons combined, not making it through a full season without missing time since his rookie season in 2018. However, James was not nearly the same player in 2023 as he had been in the past, finishing with a 60.1 PFF grade after surpassing 75 in each of his previous seasons in the league. James remained a great run defender, but had a lot of struggles in coverage. It’s possible his injuries have permanently sapped his abilities, but he’s also only going into his age 28 season, so he could have a lot of bounce back potential if he can regain his past form and continue avoiding injuries. Those are big ifs though.

Fortunately, a breakout season by the Chargers other safety Alohi Gilman made up for James disappointing. Gilman’s breakout season kind of came out of nowhere, as he was a 6th round pick in 2020, never played more than 474 snaps in a season prior to 2023, and had finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 86.1 PFF grade across 928 snaps in 2023. The market didn’t seem to buy that Gilman would continue playing at that level, leading to him re-signing with the Chargers for just 10.125 million over 2 years to this off-season, and it’s very possible he regresses at least somewhat in 2024, as he is the definition of a one-year wonder, but at least his regression could be offset by better play from Derwin James.

Dean Marlowe was the Chargers’ top reserve safety a year ago, with a 60.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season, so that role will likely go to JT Woods. Woods was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and came into the league with a lot of potential, but he’s only played 91 snaps in two seasons in the league thus far. He’s unproven, but he could still have upside and isn’t a bad option as a top reserve. The Chargers still have issues at the cornerback position, but their secondary isn’t that bad overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers finally seem to have found the right head coach and, with quarterback Justin Herbert already in place, the Chargers have the all important head coach/quarterback combo correct. Unfortunately, the rest of this roster isn’t in great shape, after a 5-12 finish in 2023 and an off-season of salary cap problems, and it may take a couple years for Harbaugh to fully build the kind of team he wants to build. I would still expect this team to finish with a better record in 2024 than they had in 2023, but it will be tough for them to make the playoffs in the loaded AFC. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Chargers after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC West

Denver Broncos 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Broncos

Quarterbacks

The Broncos won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, but they haven’t made the playoffs since, the second longest streak of missing the post-season in the league. The quarterback position has been a big part of the problem. Peyton Manning retired after that Super Bowl victory and the Broncos subsequently started eleven different quarterbacks over the next six seasons, none of whom had any sustained success. Fed up with their quarterback carousel, the Broncos made a splash move during the 2022 off-season, acquiring veteran Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seahawks in a trade that cost the Broncos two first round picks, two second round picks, and a trio of players.

The Broncos felt Wilson was the missing piece on a Super Bowl contending team, but instead Wilson ended up regressing mightily, completing just 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 30 starts, while going just 11-19, with no playoff appearances. Making matters worse, the Broncos gave Wilson a new 5-year, 242.5 million dollar deal when they acquired him. This off-season, the Broncos moved on from Wilson, despite owing him 39 million guaranteed, most of which they will still have to pay him, even after Wilson signed with the Steelers. Releasing Wilson this off-season ensures the Broncos won’t have to pay him in 2025, when he would have been guaranteed 37 million had he stayed on the roster in 2024, but the Broncos are still paying a big salary in 2024 to a player who isn’t even on their roster.

Still having to pay Wilson’s salary, the Broncos lacked the financial flexibility to add another starting caliber quarterback this off-season and were basically forced to choose between using a high draft pick on a cost-controlled young quarterback or starting a backup caliber quarterback like Jarrett Stidham, Wilson’s backup in 2023, who has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 pass attempts in five seasons in the league. The Broncos went with the former option, but the problem was five quarterbacks were drafted in the eleven picks before them in this year’s draft, forcing the Broncos to unsettle for Bo Nix, the 6th quarterback in this draft class. Nix was a productive college player, but doesn’t have elite physical traits and is already going into his age 24 season. Had there not been an early run on quarterbacks in this year’s draft, Nix could have easily been a second or third round pick.

Including the two first round picks they gave up for Wilson, the Broncos have now used their last three first round picks on quarterbacks, plus a pair of second round picks they gave up for Wilson. The Broncos were also missing their second round pick in this year’s draft from a trade for head coach Sean Payton, who disappointed in his first season in Denver. Wilson still getting paid most of his salary in 2024 also made it tough for the Broncos to build this team around the quarterback, after finishing just 24th in DVOA in 2023. The result is a roster that looks like one of the worst in the league. Unless Nix or Stidham can outperform expectations, the Broncos also have one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. The Broncos may be better set up for the future now as a result of ditching Wilson and drafting Nix, but, especially in the loaded AFC, the Broncos look like an extreme longshot to end their post-season drought in 2024.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

With limited financial flexibility, the Broncos moved on from wide receiver Jerry Jeudy this off-season, trading him to the Browns for just a pair of late round picks to get out of the 12.987 million they would have owed him this season. Jeudy never lived up to being selected in the first round in 2019, but he’ll still be missed, as he was only slightly behind the team leader in terms of receiving yards and yards per route run at the wide receiver position, with a 54/758/2 slash line and a 1.65 yards per route run average.

Courtland Sutton was the team leader at the wide receiver position with a 1.66 yards per route run average and a 59/777/10 slash line. Sutton seemingly had a breakout season in his second season in the league in 2019 with a 72/1112/6 slash line and a 2.08 yards per route run average, but he missed almost all of 2020 with injury and hasn’t been the same in three seasons since, averaging 794 yards per season, while totaling a 1.54 yards per route run average. Now going into his age 29 season, Sutton is unlikely to bounce back to his 2019 form and is an underwhelming #1 wide receiver, but he’s still a solid wide receiver overall.

To replace Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos will give more playing time to 2023 2nd round pick Marvin Mims and they also signed veteran Josh Reynolds to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal. Mims didn’t play much as a rookie (384 snaps), but he had a decent 1.54 yards per route run average and he has the upside to translate that to a larger role in his second season in the league in 2024, so he might not be much of a downgrade from Jeudy. Reynolds, meanwhile, is a mediocre veteran with an average of 1.31 yards per route run and 494 yards per season over the past three seasons, but he should be an upgrade over Brandon Johnson (343 snaps) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (428 snaps), who combined to average just 1.02 yards per route run last season.

Both Johnson and Humphrey will be reserves at best this season, if they even make the roster. Undrafted free agents in 2019 and 2022 respectively, they have averaged just 0.94 and 1.01 yards per route run respectively in their careers. Most likely the Broncos’ top reserves will be 4th round rookie Troy Franklin and veteran Tim Patrick, who is coming off of two straight seasons missed due to separate injuries. Tim Patrick has a career 1.48 yards per route run average and had slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 in his last two healthy seasons, but it’s unclear how effective he’ll be after two straight major injuries, especially since he’s going into his age 31 season now.

At tight end, Adam Trautman started for most of the season, but he struggled mightily as a receiver, with just a 22/204/3 slash line and a 0.59 yards per route run average. He’s been better than that in the past, but not much, with an average of 0.96 yards per route run and 82 catches in 60 games in four seasons in the league. Backup tight end Lucas Krull wasn’t much better, with an average of 0.73 yards per route run in the first significant action of the 2022 undrafted free agent’s career.

Fortunately, the Broncos are getting Greg Dulcich back from an injury plagued season and he’s a much better receiving option, as the 2022 3rd round pick had a 1.30 yards per route run average and a 33/411/2 slash line as a rookie, before being limited to 32 snaps last season. He should be the primary receiving tight end, with Trautman serving more as a blocker, an aspect of the game he’s much better in. This is still an underwhelming receiving corps though.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Broncos were also unable to keep center Lloyd Cushenberry this off-season, watching him signing with the Titans on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal after a 2023 season in which he made all 17 starts and finished with a 73.2 PFF grade. Not only is that a big loss, but the Broncos also didn’t really do anything to replace him. Instead, they will have a three way competition for the starting job between 2022 5th round pick Luke Wattenberg, who has played just 129 career snaps, 2023 7th round pick Alex Forsyth, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and veteran Sam Mustipher, their only off-season addition, who has mostly been underwhelming in 42 starts in five seasons in the league with the Bears and Ravens. 

By virtue of being the only one with experience, Mustipher is probably the favorite for the job, but it’s very possible that multiple of these players end up making starts as the Broncos try to find an answer at the position, an answer that probably isn’t on this roster. The rest of this offensive line stays the same from a year ago, but they’re unlikely to have the same health as they did a year ago, when those four combined to miss just one game, and they really lack depth behind them, which could easily get exposed this season when injuries strike. Also of concern is the fact that their tackles are both on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Garett Bolles going into his age 32 season and right tackle Mike McGlinchey going into his age 30 season. 

Neither tackle has shown signs of decline yet, but both could start declining in 2024. Bolles has finished with a PFF grade above 70 in all seven seasons in the league (99 starts), while McGlinchey has finished above 60 in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, so both are starting from a pretty high base point, but it would still noticeably hurt this offensive line if one or both wasn’t as good as a year ago. If either of them miss time in 2024, they would likely be replaced by either Quinn Bailey, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has played just 279 mediocre snaps in his career, or Matt Peart, a 2020 3rd round pick who has been middling at best in 7 career starts.

At guard, the Broncos have Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz on the left and right side respectively. Powers is only a marginal starter, making 53 starts in the past four seasons with PFF grades of 59.4, 66.3, 62.9, and 61.5, but Meinerz is one of the best guards in the league and arguably the Broncos’ best player overall. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Meinerz has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 67.4 PFF grade as a rookie to a 77.7 PFF grade in his second season to a 83.7 PFF grade last season. 

Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect Meinerz to continue playing at a high level in 2024, even if he might not quite match last season’s dominant performance. If either Powers or Meinerz misses time, the Broncos would probably turn to Calvin Throckmorton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who has made 27 starts over the past three seasons, but who has posted PFF grades of 42.4, 38.4, and 47.9 over those three seasons. The Broncos had an above average offensive line a year ago, but they lost center Lloyd Cushenberry, they probably won’t have the same health as they had a year ago, their tackles are on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is a big problem, so I would expect this offensive line to be significantly worse than it was a year ago, when they ranked 5th on PFF in pass block grade and 4th in run block grade.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Javonte Williams was the Broncos lead back last season and struggled mightily, with an average of 3.57 YPC on 217 carries. He was in his first year back from a torn ACL and the 2021 2nd round pick had averaged 4.43 YPC on 250 carries in the year and a half before his injury, so he has some bounce back potential in 2024, another year removed from that ACL tear. Williams also was useful as a receiver last season, with a 47/228/2 slash line and a 1.34 yards per route run average, in line with his career average of 1.24. However, there is still going to be an open competition for roles in this backfield, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Williams saw a smaller role in 2024.

Williams had a passing down role last season, but Samaje Perine was the primary passing down back and was more effective. Perine only had 53 carries, taking advantage of defenses expecting the pass to average 4.49 YPC on those carries, but he added a 50/455/0 slash line and averaged 2.09 yards per route run as a receiver. He only has a career 1.35 yards per route run average, so he probably won’t be as effective in that aspect again in 2024, but there’s a good chance he continues being the primary passing down back. He only has 454 carries in seven seasons in the league though (64.9 carries per season) and probably isn’t a realistic option for a bigger role as a runner.

Jaleel McLaughin flashed potential as a change of pace option last season, despite being an undrafted rookie, averaging 5.39 YPC on 76 carries, while adding a 31/160/2 slash line and 1.63 yards per route run as a receiver. He’s undersized (5-7 187) and unproven and probably not a real candidate for a big workload, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he saw more work as a runner and a pass catcher in year two. The Broncos also used a 5th round pick on Audric Estime and he could earn a role in this backfield even as a rookie. Most likely, Williams will remain the lead back, Perine the passing down back, McLaughlin the change of pace back, and Estime will be a deep reserve, but playing time is up for grabs in an unsettled position group, after averaging 4.01 YPC as a team last season (21st in the NFL), despite an offensive line was one of the best in the league in run blocking

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

With limited financial flexibility, their first round pick being spent on a quarterback, and no second round pick after the Sean Payton trade last off-season, the Broncos had very limited avenues to improve their defense this off-season, a big problem considering the Broncos finished last season 30th in defensive DVOA. In fact, in terms of snaps played, the Broncos brought back 8 of their top-12 on defense from a year ago and most of the players they didn’t retain were solid players who either weren’t adequately replaced or who were at least not upgraded on.

The exception is at the interior defender position, where the Broncos let go of Jonathan Harris, who had a 52.0 PFF grade on 529 snaps in 2023, and upgraded on him by acquiring veteran John Franklin-Myers from the Jets in a trade for a late round pick. Franklin-Myers was then given a restructured 2-year, 15 million dollar deal after being acquired. Franklin-Myers has lined up on the edge and on the interior throughout his career and has consistently gotten pressure regardless of where he’s lined up, totaling 17.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate over the past four seasons, while posting PFF grades of 71.5, 80.3, 82.6, and 70.4 on snap counts of 500, 717, 643, and 626 respectively. He’s not as good against the run and he probably won’t be as efficient of a pass rusher with the Broncos since he’ll be lining up primarily on the interior, where it’s tougher to get consistent pressure, but he should still be a very useful interior pass rusher and a big upgrade over Jonathan Harris.

Along with Franklin-Myers, Zach Allen and DJ Jones will also play significant roles at the interior defender spot. Allen and Jones were added as free agents in the 2023 off-season and 2022 off-season respectively on contracts worth 45.75 million over 3 years and 30 million over 3 years respectively. Allen lived up to his contract in his first season in Denver last season, with a 71.9 PFF grade on 913 snaps, his second straight above average season (72.7 grade on 660 snaps in 2022), after the 2019 3rd round pick struggled in his first three seasons in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons. Only in his age 27 season, Allen seems to have permanently turned a corner as a player and should remain an above average every down player. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 30 games over the past two seasons, but he’s also a capable run defender.

Jones, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disappointment in two years in Denver, with a 63.6 PFF grade on 558 snaps in 2022 and a 56.2 PFF grade on 568 snaps in 2023. He had a 73.7 PFF grade on 654 snaps in his final season in San Francisco in 2021, which is why he got that big contract from the Broncos, but he looks like a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, finishing below 70 on PFF in his other six seasons in the league and below 60 in three of those six seasons. He’s been a decent pass rusher in two seasons in Denver, with 4 sacks, 3 hits, and a 7.1% pressure rate in 31 games, but he’s consistently struggled against the run. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

Franklin-Myers, Allen, and Jones figure to play the vast majority of the snaps at the interior defender position for the Broncos in 2024, but if any of them get hurt, the Broncos would be in trouble because their depth is very suspect behind their top-3. Matt Henningsen is a 2022 6th round pick who has played 456 mediocre snaps in two seasons in the league. Malcolm Roach is a 2020 undrafted free agent who has played just 258 snaps per season in four seasons in the league and has mostly struggled, finishing below 50 on PFF in three of those four seasons. Angelo Blackson is going into his 10th season in the league, but has only once finished above 60 on PFF, way back in 2017, while averaging 374 snaps per season, and now he heads into his age 32 season and is unlikely to improve. Adding John Franklin-Myers improves this group and he and Zach Allen should be a solid duo together inside, but there are still concerns with this group overall.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Not much changes at the edge defender position, which is not a bad thing because their top-3 of Jonathon Cooper (836 snaps), Nik Bonitto (524 snaps), and Baron Browning (445 snaps) was pretty solid a year ago. The Broncos also add third round rookie Jonah Elliss to the mix. He might not play a big role as a rookie, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Ronnie Perkins, who had a 38.9 PFF grade in the first 149 snaps of his 3-year career in 2023.

Baron Browning played the fewest snaps of the Broncos top-3 in 2023, but he was the best of the bunch with a 74.5 PFF grade and only played so few snaps because he missed seven games. His absence was noticeable, as the Broncos were noticeably better on defense when he was on the field. He was at his best against the run, but also was a very effective pass rusher, with 4.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.2% pressure rate. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Browning wasn’t as good in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.9 and 55.3 on snap counts of 528 and 569 respectively, so he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only in his age 25 season, so he might have permanently turned a corner as a player and it’s possible he could be even better in his 4th season in the league in 2024.

Cooper and Bonitto were not as good against the run as Browning, but both were effective pass rushers, with Cooper totaling 8.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate and Bonitto totaling 8 sacks, 13 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. A 7th round pick in 2021, Cooper was not as good in his first two seasons in the league, with a combined 9.1% pressure rate, so it’s possible he regresses, but he’s also still relatively young in his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner. 

Bonitto, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and struggled with a 52.4 PFF grade on 357 snaps as a rookie, but he too is young in his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner. Browning, Cooper, Bonitto are all one-year wonders in terms of playing at the level they played at least season, but they’re also all pretty young and could continue playing at a similar level to a year ago and the Broncos added extra young depth with third round rookie Jonah Elliss. This is a solid position group overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In the linebacking corps, the big change is the Broncos lost Josey Jewell, who signed with the Panthers on a 3-year, 18.75 million, and replaced him with Cody Barton on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal, which should be a noticeable downgrade. While Jewell had a solid 67.2 PFF grade on 796 snaps last season, Barton had a 53.9 PFF grade on 844 snaps and has finished below 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league. Even in his best season in 2022, when he had a 63.7 PFF grade on 894 snaps, he still would have been a downgrade from how Jewell performed a year ago.

Barton will start next to Alex Singleton, who will remain in an every down role after playing 1,089 snaps in 2023. Singleton is a good run defender, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four straight seasons and above 70 on PFF in run defense grade in three straight seasons, but he struggles in pass coverage, finishing below 60 on PFF in coverage grade in three of the past four seasons, including 2023, when he had a 78.2 run defense grade, but a 42.9 pass defense grade, leading to an overall 61.2 grade. Now going into his age 31 season, Singleton could start to decline even as a run defender and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finished the season as a below average overall every down linebacker.

For depth behind their two every down linebackers, the Broncos have Jonas Griffith and Drew Sanders. Griffith, a 2020 undrafted free agent, flashed potential with a 69.1 PFF grade on 255 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021, but he fell to 52.9 on 336 snaps in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 with injury, so he’s a pretty underwhelming reserve option. Sanders, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but struggled mightily with a 37.2 PFF grade on 260 snaps as a rookie and is questionable for the start of the season after an off-season injury. Overall, this is a pretty underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Broncos lost a couple starters in the secondary, releasing safety Justin Simmons ahead of a 14.5 million dollar salary in 2024 and not re-signing cornerback Fabian Moreau as a free agent. To replace them, the Broncos signed safety Brandon Jones to a 3-year, 20 million dollar deal and cornerback Levi Wallace to a 1-year, 1.3 million dollar deal. Simmons had a 67.9 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, but he was heading into his age 31 season, so it’s understandable the Broncos moved on and signed a cheaper, younger replacement. 

Jones has only started 30 of the 54 games he’s played in four seasons in the league and he was mediocre in his first three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 60.8, 53.4, and 61.1, before having a mini breakout year with a 76.8 PFF grade on 464 snaps in 2023 (6 starts in 16 games). It’s unclear if he can translate that to a starting role in 2024 and I would expect him to at least regress somewhat in a bigger role, but he’s only in his age 26 season and is a former 3rd round pick, so he at least has upside.

Moreau, meanwhile, started the final 11 games of last season and had a decent 62.4 PFF grade. Wallace isn’t a downgrade from him, but he isn’t really an upgrade either. Wallace has started 63 of 76 games played over the past five seasons with mostly middling results, finishing with PFF grades of 68.6, 60.1, 66.5, 62.8, and 57.8 respectively. He’s still only in his age 29 season, so he could continue having similar results in 2024. 

Wallace will start outside opposite #1 cornerback Pat Surtain, with Ja’Quan McMillan on the slot in sub packages. Surtain, a first round pick in 2021, looked like one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2022, finishing with a 86.8 PFF grade, but he fell to a 69.0 grade in 2023, in line with his 66.1 grade as a rookie in 2021. Still only in his age 24 season, Surtain has a huge upside long-term and could easily bounce back and be one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2024 and beyond, but that’s not a guarantee. 

McMillan, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2023, but had a 68.4 PFF grade as a rookie on 669 snaps. It’s only been a year since he went completely undrafted, so it’s possible he could regress in 2024, but there’s also a good chance he remains a solid slot cornerback. Behind their top-3 cornerbacks, the Broncos have Riley Moss, a 2023 3rd round pick who played 25 snaps as a rookie, and Damari Mathis, a 2022 4th round pick who had a decent rookie year with a 65.6 PFF grade on 794 snaps, before regressing mightily to a 35.2 PFF grade on 440 snaps in 2023. Both Moss and Mathis have decent upside and should provide solid depth.

At safety, Jones will start opposite PJ Locke, who took over as the starter mid-season when Kareem Jackson was suspended, benched, and released. Locke had a solid 64.0 PFF grade 538 snaps last season, but the 2019 undrafted free agent is still very inexperienced, having played just 145 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season. It’s possible he could continue being a decent starter over the course of a full season, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he struggled with his expanded, season-long role.

The Broncos don’t have a choice but to start Locke because their other options are poor. Caden Sterns, a 2021 5th round pick, has played just 587 snaps in three seasons in the league, with just 2 snaps last season, while Delarrin Turner-Yell, a 2022 5th round pick, struggled mightily with a 40.9 PFF grade on 212 snaps in the first real defensive action of his career in 2023, after playing just one snap as a rookie. Both have theoretical upside, but both would almost definitely struggle if forced into a starting role by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This secondary has one top end talent in Patrick Surtain, but the rest of the group is pretty questionable.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Broncos spent their 2022 and 2023 first and second round picks on a quarterback who is no longer on the roster, but will still collect about 38 million from the Broncos in 2024. They also gave up a first round pick (originally acquired when they traded away Bradley Chubb) and a second round pick for head coach Sean Payton, who has yet to move the needle as a head coach. The Broncos then spent their first round pick in this year’s draft on a quarterback in Bo Nix who could have gone in the second round. The result is a roster that looks like one of the worst in the league and a quarterback who is highly unlikely to be able to overcome the limitations of the rest of this roster, especially in the loaded AFC. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Jets after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC West

New York Jets 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Jets

Quarterback

The Jets have by far the NFL’s longest playoff drought, not having made the post-season since the 2010 season, with every other team having made it since 2016 and all but four teams having made it since 2020. The quarterback position has been a huge part of the reason why. It’s not for lack of investment at the quarterback position though and, in fact, dating back to 2006, no team has spent more picks in the first two rounds on the quarterback position, taking six total, Kellen Clemens (2006), Mark Sanchez (2009), Geno Smith (2013), Christian Hackenburg (2016), Sam Darnold (2018), and Zach Wilson (2021). Remarkably, not a single one of those quarterbacks has panned out as a long-term starter for this team, even though three of them (Sanchez, Darnold, and Wilson) were selected in the top-5 picks overall.

Last off-season, the Jets made another big investment at the quarterback position, trading a second round pick to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers and giving him a 3-year, 112.5 million dollar contract. The season before, the Jets ranked 5th in defensive DVOA, but 26th in offensive DVOA and finished 7-10 as a result, so they were hoping Rodgers could elevate their offense significantly and be the missing piece on a contender. 

Instead, Rodgers tore his achilles four snaps into the season, ending his season and essentially ending the Jets’ season at the same time. The Jets again finished 7-10 in a season that was very similar to the one before, as they ranked 3rd in defensive DVOA, but 32nd in offensive DVOA. The Jets could have added a veteran backup behind Rodgers last off-season, or traded for one mid-season, but instead they opted to stick with Zach Wilson as a developmental option behind Rodgers and that proved to be a mistake once he was forced back into the starting lineup. 

A massive bust as the 2nd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Wilson completed 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions in 22 starts in his first two seasons in the league and things weren’t any different in 2023, as he completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 6.17 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 11 starts. Wilson was ultimately benched for third string Tim Boyle and then mid-season free agent signing Trevor Siemian, but neither of them were any better, combining to complete 58.3% of their passes for an average of 4.71 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

Rodgers returns healthy for the 2024 season and the Jets added a better backup plan in Tyrod Taylor, an experienced 13-year veteran, albeit one who is now in his age 35 season. In his career, he has a decent 88.3 QB rating in 57 career starts, including a 89.1 QB rating in 5 starts last season. However, there is a lot of concern about what version of Rodgers the Jets are going to get. Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past decade and a half, with a career 103.6 QB rating, and he won back-to-back MVPs as recently as 2020-2021, but he had a down year by his standards in 2022, posting the 2nd worst PFF grade of his 15 years as a starter (77.5) and the worst QB rating of those 15 seasons (91.1), before missing almost all of last season, and now is heading into his age 41 season and coming off a major injury.

That being said, Rodgers will obviously be a huge upgrade over what the Jets had at quarterback last season and the Jets have a lot of talent on the rest of this roster, so they won’t need Rodgers to be at his best for this team to be contenders. Given the uncertainty about what level Rodgers will play at, there is a wide range of outcomes for the Jets this season, but the Jets will almost definitely be better than they were a year ago and the ceiling for this team is being one of the best in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The quarterback position wasn’t the Jets only issue on offense last season, as their offensive line struggled mightily, finishing 30th on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 27th on PFF in team run blocking grade. With a narrow window as contenders, given the age of their starting quarterback, the Jets spent aggressively this off-season to try to surround Rodgers with enough talent to succeed and a big chunk of that investment was on the offensive line. 

Left tackle Tyron Smith was added on a heavily incentivized 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal, right tackle Morgan Moses and the remaining 1-year and 5.5 million on his contract were acquired for a mid round pick, and guard John Simpson was added on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Smith and Moses are going into their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, but they still played at a high level last season, they fit the Jets’ narrow contending window, and the Jets also planned for the future by using their first round pick on tackle Olu Fashanu. 

Smith has spent the previous 13 seasons with the Cowboys, who took him in the first round in the 2011 NFL Draft, and he’s been one of the best tackles in the league over that stretch, surpassing 70 on PFF in eleven of those seasons and surpassing 80 on PFF in eight of those seasons, including 2023, when he had a 83.8 PFF grade in 13 starts, despite his advanced age. Injuries have increasingly become a problem for him in recent years, as he’s missed 49 games in the past eight seasons, with at least three games missed in each of those seasons, and at his age he could start to decline significantly in the next year or two, but he’s starting from a high base point and it’s very possible he remains at least an above average starter for another year.

Moses hasn’t been quite as good as Smith, but he’s made 143 starts in the past nine seasons, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all nine seasons, including six seasons over 70, most recently 2023, when he had a 77.6 PFF grade in 14 starts for the Ravens. He’s also only missed three games due to injury in those nine seasons, though those three games did come last season. It’s also very possible he declines this season, but even if he does, he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. Even at their advanced ages, it wouldn’t be hard for Smith and Moses to be massive upgrades over what the Jets had at tackle last season, when all of the tackles who made a start for them finished below 60 on PFF except Alijah Vera-Tucker, who lasted five games before suffering a season ending injury.

With Smith and Moses locked into starting jobs at tackle, Vera-Tucker will move to guard, where he had a 66.8 PFF grade in 16 starts as a rookie in 2021, after being selected in the first round by the Jets in that year’s draft. In two seasons since that promising rookie year, Vera-Tucker has been hampered by injuries in a big way, missing 12 games total, but he has still shown his talent when on the field, with PFF grades of 71.8 and 71.7 respectively. Durability remains a concern for him, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and still has a lot of talent if he can stay on the field this time around.

The rookie Fashanu could also move to guard in the short-term, but most likely they’ll keep him as a reserve and start free agent acquisition John Simpson at the other guard spot, given the contract the Jets gave him. Simpson could prove to be a disappointment at that salary though. A 4th round pick by the Raiders in 2020, Simpson struggled in his first stint as a starter in 2021, posting a 52.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, and was subsequently benched for the 2022 season and then cut late that season. He then landed with the Ravens and surprisingly won a starting job, but continued struggling with a 56.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, his 4th straight season below 60 on PFF to begin his career. He figures to continue struggling in 2024 and could easily find himself benched for Fashanu before the season is over.

The only starter in the same spot as the end of last season on this offensive line is center Joe Tippmann, a 2023 2nd round pick who started the final 10 games of the season at center, after making 4 starts at guard earlier in the season. Compared to most of this offensive line last season, Tippmann wasn’t bad, posting a 61.0 PFF grade, and he could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Even if he doesn’t, I would expect him to remain at least a capable starter on a much improved starting five.

Along with Fashanu, the Jets also bring back Xavier Newman, Wes Schweitzer, Max Mitchell, Jake Hanson, Chris Glaser, and Carter Warren as reserve options, although all six of them struggled last season, with PFF grades of 48.3, 52.7, 49.3, 51.8, 45.5, and 46.9 respectively on snap counts of 280, 149, 474, 244, 83, and 401 respectively. Schweitzer is the only one of them with any history of success, mostly holding up decently in 62 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, but he now heads into his age 31 season. Schweitzer could be a decent reserve and is probably the best of the bunch, but only by default. 

Newman was a 2022 undrafted free agent who had only played 4 career offensive snaps prior to last season. Chris Glaser is also a 2022 undrafted free agent and last season is the only action of his career. Carter Warren was a 4th round pick in 2023 and could have some untapped upside, but has a long way to develop to even be a solid backup. Max Mitchell was a 4th round pick in 2022 and also struggled with a 55.5 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie, so he also has a long way to develop to even be a solid backup. Jake Hanson was a 6th round pick in 2021 and played just 75 snaps prior to last season. This Jets’ offensive line is much improved from a year ago and it’s unlikely more than one or two of the aforementioned players will see any significant action, but it’s at least worth noting their depth drops off significantly after the rookie Fashanu, who could end up in the starting lineup in the likely event that John Simpson struggles.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Another big weakness on this offense a year ago was their receiving corps, outside of top wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson was the only Jets wide receiver to surpass even 1 yard per route run last season and, while quarterback play was a big part of the problem, the receiving corps itself was also part of the problem. Along with their offensive line additions, the Jets also focused on improving this group this off-season, signing veteran Mike Williams to a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal and using a third round pick on Malachi Corley.

Williams is a similar short-term signing to Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. He isn’t as old, going into his age 30 season, but he is coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2023 season after just three games. Williams also missed four games due to injury the year before, but he had a career best 76/1146/9 slash line in 16 games in 2021 prior to that and he has averaged 1.99 yards per route run over the past three seasons when on the field and has a career average of 1.79 yards per route run, so the upside is there if he can stay healthy and doesn’t start to decline due to age. Those are both big ifs, but he should be a worthwhile signing for a Jets team that is all in on competing at the highest level in 2024.

Corley, meanwhile, will compete for the #3 receiver job with veteran holdover Allen Lazard. Lazard was signed to a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal to give Rodgers a familiar target from his Green Bay days, but that contract was always an overpay compared to what the rest of the league would have paid him, as he had only averaged 557 yards per season and 1.52 yards per route run in the previous four seasons with Rodgers, and Lazard proved to be basically useless to the Jets when Rodgers got hurt, finishing with a 23/311/1 slash line and a 0.68 yards per route run average. 

Lazard even lost playing time down the stretch last season to undrafted rookies Jason Brownlee and Xavier Gipson, who weren’t any better with yards per route run averages of 0.29 and 0.67 respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, Lazard has some bounce back potential now that his quarterback is healthy, but even at his best he’d only be a middling #3 receiver and it’s possible the rookie Corley outplays him in training camp and takes his job. Brownlee and Gipson remain as well, but it’s highly unlikely they’re anything more than depth receivers in this improved receiving corps.

Garrett Wilson is still the obvious #1 receiver in this group, posting slash lines of 95/1042/3 and 83/1103/4 with a combined 1.69 yards per route run average in two seasons in the league, despite the quarterback play he’s had. Still only in his age 24 season, Wilson has a massive upside in year three if Rodgers can stay healthy and be even an average starting quarterback. He’ll probably see a smaller target share in a better receiving corps than he has over the past two seasons (147 targets in 2022, 168 targets in 2023), but he could easily make up for that with much improved efficiency. 

The Jets didn’t make any additions at the tight end position this off-season, so Tyler Conklin will remain the starter. He hasn’t been a bad starter, with slash lines of 61/593/3, 58/552/3, and 61/621/0 over the past three seasons respectively, with an average of 1.22 yards per route run over that stretch, but he’s more of a checkdown option than anything and will probably have a smaller target share in 2024 with better wide receivers around him, after finishing third on the team with 87 last season.

Conklin will continue to be backed up by Jeremy Ruckert, a 2022 3rd round pick who has shown very little through two seasons in the league, averaging 1.05 yards per route run and posting PFF grades of 56.1 and 57.5 over those two seasons. The Jets parted ways with veteran CJ Uzomah (240 snaps in 2023), so Ruckert will probably have a bigger role in 2024 than 2023 (313 snaps), but I don’t have high expectations from him aside from him being a decent backup option. This should be an improved receiving corps over last year, particularly with the addition of Mike Williams in free agency.

Grade; B

Running Backs

Along with Garrett Wilson, the other big playmaker on this Jets’ offense last season was running back Breece Hall. A 2022 2nd round pick, Hall’s impressive rookie season was ended by a torn ACL, after he rushed for 463 yards and 4 touchdowns on 80 carries (5.79 YPC) with a 19/218/1 slash line and 2.00 yards per route run in 7 games. In his first season back from the injury in 2023, Hall was eased back into action, splitting time with veteran Dalvin Cook early in the year, but he drastically outperformed Cook and took control of this backfield as the season went on, with Cook eventually being cut after he was unhappy with his role. 

While Cook finished the season with just 214 yards and no touchdowns on 67 carries (3.19 YPC) and a 15/78/0 slash line with 0.88 yards per route run in 15 games, Hall finished the season with 994 yards and 5 touchdowns on 223 carries (4.46 YPC) and a 76/591/4 slash line with 1.76 yards per route run. The Jets didn’t add a veteran backup to replace Breece Hall, only using 4th and 5th round picks on Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis instead, leaving the two rookies and 2023 5th round pick Israel Abanikanda (29 touches as a rookie) behind Hall on the depth chart, so Hall should be in for a big role in year three and he has a massive upside, another year removed from his injury, with much more talent around him than he had a year ago, particularly at quarterback and on the offensive line.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Jets’ defense has been dominant the past two seasons. It’s tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistent great on offense because defense tends to have more changes year-to-year, but the Jets have kept most of the same personnel for the past few seasons, with eight of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last season remaining on the roster and six of their top-10 in terms of snaps played from 2022 remaining on the roster. 

The position group that has seen the most changes has been the edge defender group, but that’s not really a bad thing. In 2022, their top edge defenders in terms of snaps played were veterans Carl Lawson (663 snaps) and John Franklin-Myers (643 snaps), 2022 1st round pick Jermaine Johnson (312 snaps), and 2022 4th round pick Michael Clemons (311 snaps) and they all played well, with PFF grades of 66.8, 82.6, 71.7, and 78.7 respectively. The Jets then added another first round pick, Will McDonald, to the mix the following off-season.

In 2023, Lawson, the worst of the bunch in 2022, was largely phased out, playing just 101 snaps in 6 games, while Jermaine Johnson and another young edge defender Bryce Huff played bigger roles, seeing 748 snaps and 481 snaps respectively. Both played well, with PFF grades of 83.0 and 79.7 respectively, while John Franklin-Myers and Michael Clemons also had solid seasons in similar roles to 2022, with PFF grades of 70.4 and 65.9 respectively on snap counts of 626 and 368 respectively. Will McDonald played sparingly in a deep role, but showed potential with a 71.6 PFF grade on 183 snaps.

This off-season, Huff signed with the Eagles on a 3-year, 51.1 million dollar deal and John Franklin-Myers was traded to the Broncos for a late round pick, saving the Jets his 13.9 million dollar salary. To replace them, the Jets traded a mid-round pick to the Eagles for Haason Reddick, who will make 15 million in the final year of his contract this season, and they figure to give more playing time in year two to Will McDonald. 

Reddick, McDonald, and Jermaine Johnson all figure to have significant roles, while Michael Clemons could see an expanded role as well, in what is still a very talented position group. McDonald is still unproven, but he has a high upside, while Clemons is at least a solid rotational player, particularly against the run, and Johnson is coming off of a breakout 2023 campaign and should continue playing at a high level for years to come, only going into his age 25 season.

Reddick is going into his age 30 season and could start declining in 2024, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off a little this season, he’s starting from a pretty high base point, so he should continue playing at a pretty high level. A first round pick by the Cardinals in 2017, Reddick’s career got off to a slow start, but over the past four seasons he has 50.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 66 games, while receiving overall grades of 72.8, 67.9, 81.1, and 75.2 respectively from PFF. Even with all of the changes in recent years, this should still be a talented position group in 2024.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Jets also have a high level player at the interior defender position, with Quinnen Williams being one of the best players in the league at that position. The 3rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Williams showed a lot of promise early in his career, but didn’t put it all together until the past two seasons, when he has excelled with PFF grades of 90.1 and 90.6, playing the run well and dominating as a pass rusher, with a combined 17.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Williams should continue playing at a high level in 2024.

The rest of this group is not nearly as good, however. Solomon Thomas (483 snaps) and Quinton Jefferson (468 snaps) were second and third on this team in snaps played and struggled with PFF grades of 37.0 and 52.8 respectively. Jefferson left as a free agent this off-season and was replaced with Javon Kinlaw, which is not necessarily an upgrade. A first round pick by the 49ers in 2020, Kinlaw has been a massive bust to this point in his career. Injuries have been part of the problem, as he’s missed 26 games in four seasons in the league, but he hasn’t played well when on the field either, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons, while averaging 32.5 snaps played per game. He’s a decent pass rusher, with a career 7.1% pressure rate, but is horrible against the run. Now in his age 27 season, there probably isn’t much untapped upside here, so he figures to continue struggling in his new home.

Solomon Thomas is also a former first round pick bust of the 49ers, going third overall in the 2017 NFL Draft and finishing below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, including five straight, and four straight seasons below 50. Like Kinlaw, he’s also better as a pass rusher than a run defender, but his career 7.0% pressure rate is pretty mediocre. In his age 29 season in 2024, I would expect him to continue struggling. The Jets also signed ex-Cardinal Leki Fotu in free agency this off-season, but he too has struggled throughout his career, finishing below 50 on PFF in all four seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020, on an average of 363 snaps per season. He too should continue struggling in 2024. The Jets have one of the best interior defenders in the league in Quinnen Williams, but this is a very top heavy group, as the rest of the bunch figure to struggle.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Jets also got great play out of starting linebackers CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams in 2023, as they finished with PFF grades of 82.9 and 81.1 respectively. Both had career best years though and it’s very possible neither one is as good again in 2024. For Williams, his dominant 2023 campaign came out of nowhere, as the 2019 3rd round pick had never finished above 60 on PFF in his four previous seasons. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at the same level, but it’s much more likely he regresses, at least somewhat, possibly a lot.

Mosley has a better history than Williams, exceeding 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including six seasons above 70, but he’s never been above 80 in any of his other seasons and he’s now heading into his age 32 season, so he’s highly unlikely to repeat the best season of his career for the second year in a row and it’s possible he could regress significantly, given his age. He and Williams will probably remain at least a solid starting duo, but it seems improbable that both would be as good as a year ago.

Behind Mosley and Williams, the Jets’ depth is pretty suspect. Jamien Sherwood (193 snaps), Sam Eguavoen (14 snaps), and Chazz Surratt (9 snaps) were the only other linebackers who played a snap for them last season and they return for 2024 as their top reserves. Sherwood was a 5th round pick in 2021, but has only played 357 snaps in three seasons in the league. He’s flashed potential in that limited action, but could easily struggle in a larger role. 

Eguavoen played 621 snaps as a rookie in 2019, but the former undrafted free agent struggled with a 50.2 PFF grade that season and has only played 314 snaps in four seasons in the league since then and now is heading into his age 31 season. Chazz Surratt, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick by the Vikings in 2021, but the 9 snaps he played last season were the first defensive snaps of his career. Mosley and Williams are a solid starting duo, but both are unlikely to be as good as a year ago and their depth behind them is suspect.

Grade: B+

Secondary

One of the few defensive players the Jets lost this off-season is safety Jordan Whitehead, who had a 68.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but the Jets have a ready made replacement in Chuck Clark. Clark was originally brought in last off-season to start next to Whitehead, but he tore his ACL before the season started and didn’t play a snap. He’s only in his age 29 season though and now more than a full year removed from his injury, he has a good chance to bounce back to his pre-injury form, when he had PFF grades of 72.9, 68.8, 66.2, and 66.0 in 61 starts in the previous four seasons. In Clark’s absence, Tony Adams was the other starter next to Whitehead and he played well enough to keep a starting job for another year, posting a 68.0 PFF grade in 15 starts. 

A 2022 undrafted free agent, Adams flashed potential with a 69.5 PFF grade on 118 snaps as a rookie and then was able to carry that into a larger role in 2023. He’s still pretty inexperienced and I don’t think we can completely forget that he went undrafted just yet, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he remained at least a decent starter for another season. Ashtyn Davis returns as the third safety and top reserve. He was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but he was mediocre as a starter early in his career and has played just 221 snaps over the past two seasons since. Already in his age 28 season, Davis probably doesn’t have any untapped upside, but he is at least a decent backup behind Chuck Clark and Tony Adams.

At cornerback is probably where the Jets are their strongest on defense, with a trio of highly talented cornerbacks. Sauce Gardner, the 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, is already one of the top cornerbacks in the league, receiving PFF grades of 87.9 and 88.6 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. Still only in his age 24 season, Gardner should remain one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

Fellow starting outside cornerback DJ Reed joined the Jets as a free agent in the same off-season Gardner was drafted and he has been a big part of their defensive success over the past two seasons, finishing with PFF grades of 72.5 and 77.9 respectively, after posting a 78.6 PFF grade in his final season in Seattle in 2021. Reed actually has five straight seasons above 70 on PFF, although the first two were in smaller roles, as the 2018 5th round pick took time to develop into a full-time starter. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Reed in 2024.

At the same time as Gardner and Reed were added, slot cornerback Michael Carter broke out between them. Only a 5th round pick in 2021, Carter struggled with a 53.7 PFF grade on 777 snaps as a rookie, but improved drastically in year two and has since had PFF grades of 73.5 and 80.4 on snap counts of 732 and 671 respectively. Still only in his age 25 season, Carter should continue being one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league in 2024 and beyond.

In addition to having a very talented top trio of cornerbacks, the Jets also added better depth this off-season. Last season, their top reserve was Brandin Echols and, while he only had to play 143 snaps in 2023, it’s possible one of their top-3 cornerbacks misses significant time with injury in 2024, in which case the Jets would have had to turn to a 2021 6th round pick who struggled mightily with a 45.0 PFF grade on 762 snaps as a rookie, in the only significant action of his career. He hasn’t been bad in a smaller role in two seasons since, but he would have been a very shaky injury replacement option, so the Jets added veteran Isaiah Oliver in free agency and he’ll be their 4th cornerback this season. 

A second round pick in 2018, Oliver never really panned out as a starter, with PFF grades of 56.8 and 58.8 on snap counts of 927 and 831 respectively in 2019 and 2020, but he’s been better on smaller snap counts since, with PFF grades of 72.6, 77.9, and 67.6 respectively over the past three seasons on snap counts of 161, 349, and 503. If forced into significant action in 2024, he could continue struggling, but he probably wouldn’t be as bad as Echols would have been and it’s possible his second stint as a starter could go better than the first, if needed. He’s an above average option as a #4 cornerback, behind arguably the top trio of cornerbacks in the league. The Jets aren’t as good at safety, but they’re not bad there either and, overall, this is a very good secondary.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Jets are going all in on 2024, which makes a lot of sense, given the age of their starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers and their lack of a long-term succession plan behind him. The 2024 season could be their only good chance at winning it all for a long-time. Whether or not they can ultimately reach that goal is strongly dependent on what version of Rodgers they get, now going into his age 41 season, coming off of a major injury, and three years removed from his last prime caliber season. The rest of this roster is good enough that, if Rodgers can somewhat resemble his prime self, they should be legitimate contenders to win it all, but that’s a big if. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Jets after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC East

Buffalo Bills 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Quarterback

A common team building strategy is to draft a young, cheap quarterback, surround him with talent while he’s young and cheap, even at the expense of future cap space, and then by the team the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback, hopefully the quarterback is good enough to succeed even with less help around him. It’s arguably the only way to build a consistent contending team, as the only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers.

The Bills have followed this blueprint since using the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft on Josh Allen. It took a couple years for the Bills to load up on talent around Allen and for Allen to develop into a top level quarterback, but in his third season in the league in 2020, Allen and the Bills broke out and since then the Bills have gone 48-18 with five playoff victories, with Allen completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions, while adding 2,470 yards and 36 touchdowns on 459 carries (5.38 YPC). Overall, he has ranked 5th, 6th, 1st and 1st among quarterbacks on PFF with grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, and 91.2 respectively. 

Unfortunately, despite all their success, Allen and the Bills haven’t reached the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl. Now with Allen going into his 7th season in the league and the 2nd season of his massive 6-year, 258 million dollar extension (10th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary), Allen’s cap hit will go over 11% of the cap for the first time and it will only go up from there, so the Bills had to move on from several players this off-season to improve their long-term cap situation. Allen is the kind of quarterback capable of at least keeping this team in contention even with a diminished roster around him, but things will only get harder from here for him.

Allen hasn’t missed any time with injury since his rookie season, despite a playing style that makes him more susceptible to injury. If Allen does happen to miss time this season, the Bills brought back veteran Mitch Trubisky, who backed Allen up in 2021, in between stints as a starter with the Bears from 2017-2020 and as a spot starter with the Steelers from 2022-2023. Trubisky has never lived up to his billing as the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he’s pretty good as far as backups go, completing 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.70 YPA, 72 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in 57 career starts. The Bills would obviously be in a lot of trouble if they lost Allen for an extended period of time, as Allen is a top-5 quarterback, but you could do a lot worse than turning to Trubisky in a worst case scenario.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

In 2023, the Bills finished 11-6, but were better than their record suggested, as they finished the season ranked 3rd in DVOA. After a 5-5 start, the Bills went 6-1 in their final 7 regular season games and came within a couple plays of beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the second round of the playoffs. That turnaround coincided with the Bills firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replacing him with former quarterbacks coach Joe Brady, but their improved success had more to do with the team doing better in close games than it did with the team actually playing better. In fact, the Bills offense actually got slightly worse as the season went on, after the coordinator switch. Overall on the season, the Bills averaged 5.71 yards per play and had a 33.45% first down rate, but if you more heavily weight their games later in the season, the Bills averages drop to 5.60 yards per play and a 32.97% first down rate. 

The biggest change when Brady took over was this offense became much more run heavy, going from averaging 38.9 pass attempts and 28.2 carries per game with Dorsey calling plays to 33.1 pass attempts and 36.8 carries per game with Brady. Part of that was giving more carries to their running backs, but Josh Allen’s carries also increased from 4.8 per game to 9.0 per game, as Dorsey preferred to keep Allen in the pocket more to help him avoid injury, while Brady used Allen more as a dual threat. 

Utilizing Allen as a runner is not a bad idea in of itself, but Allen’s passing effectiveness decreased down the stretch as well, going from a 70.3% completion percentage, 7.43 YPA average, and 19 touchdowns to 11 interceptions with Dorsey to a 60.7% completion percentage, 7.45 YPA average, and 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions with Brady and Brady’s scheme probably deserves some of the blame for that. Allen was also a less efficient runner down the stretch than he was early in the season, averaging 4.41 YPC, as opposed to 5.13 YPC with Dorsey as the offensive coordinator. Brady remains as the Bills’ offensive coordinator for the 2024 season, but that might not necessarily be a good thing, even if the team’s record misleadingly shows they were better with Brady calling plays in 2023.

That being said, a more run-heavy game plan might be for the best in 2024, given the personnel changes they made this off-season, as they traded away top wide receiver Stefon Diggs for a 2025 2nd round pick and let #2 wide receiver Gabe Davis leave on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal in free agency. The Diggs trade didn’t free up any immediate cap space for the Bills in 2024, but they were going to have to take a big dead cap hit whenever they moved on from him and, if Diggs continued on his current trajectory, this might have been the last off-season the Bills could have gotten anything significant for him via trade. 

Diggs still had a 107/1183/8 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 2023, but his production significantly decreased down the stretch, as he managed just a 47/422/1 slash line on 80 targets in his final 10 games including playoffs with a 1.30 yards per route run average. That largely coincides with the Bills’ offensive coordinator change and Joe Brady is probably partially to blame for that, but Diggs was also on the wrong side of 30, heading into his age 31 season in 2024, and it’s very possible he’s on the decline in a significant way. 

Davis, meanwhile, was decent with a 45/746/7 slash line and a 1.34 yards per route run average in 2023, but he’s not irreplaceable. To replace Diggs and Davis, the Bills signed veteran Curtis Samuel to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal, used a second round pick on Keon Coleman, and took fliers on additional veterans in Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Chase Claypool. The Bills will also probably give a bigger role to 2022 5th round pick Khalil Shakir, who took on a bigger role down the stretch last season, at the expense of Stefon Diggs. 

In fact, Shakir had basically the same level of production down the stretch last season as Diggs did, despite a smaller role. In the final 12 games of the season, including playoffs, Shakir had a 41/611/3 slash line on 48 targets with a 1.79 yards per route run average. It’s a small sample size for a player who was not highly drafted and who had previously averaged just 1.23 yards per route run in the first year and a half of his career, but Shakir comes into his third season in the league in 2024 with a lot of upside and could see a big target share. 

Coleman and Samuel are probably locked into big roles by virtue of the significant investments the Bills made in them this off-season, but Shakir figures to at least be a top-3 receiver on this team and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him lead this team in targets, given the Bills’ other options. Coleman has a lot of potential, but enters the league pretty raw and could see a lot of growing pains as a rookie, while Samuel is a decent receiver, but an unspectacular one and one without much upside, going into his age 28 season, having averaged 1.37 yards per route run and 483 yards per season in seven seasons in the league.

As for the veteran fliers the Bills added as depth options, none are likely to have a big impact. Mack Hollins has only exceeded 300 receiving yardage once in seven seasons in the league, has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, and is going into his age 31 season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is going into his age 30 season with a career average of 1.23 yards per route run and 526 yards per season in six seasons in the league. 

Chase Claypool was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and showed potential early in his career, with slash lines of 62/873/9 and 59/860/2 on an average of 1.84 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league, but he has averaged only 0.99 yards per route run over the past two seasons, with just 54 catches, only 8 of which came in 2023. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and is the only one of the trio of reserve options with any upside, but he’s still nothing more than a flier.

With concerns at the wide receiver position, the Bills figure to heavily use their two tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and spent most of his first four seasons in the league as a starter, averaging 718 snaps per season, but he was underwhelming, averaging 1.13 yards per route run and 445 yards per season, which led to the Bills selecting Kincaid in the first round in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Kincaid immediately was better than Knox had ever been, with a 73/673/2 slash line and a 1.46 yards per route run average as a rookie, and he out-snapped Knox 699-486. Now going into his second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kincaid take another step forward, but Knox is not a bad #2 tight end and, given the Bills’ wide receiver situation, the Bills figure to use both on the field at the same time frequently. The Bills’ lack a true #1 option, but there are at least some good options, as the Bills try to replace Stefon Diggs’ targets by committee.

Grade: B

Running Backs

In addition to Josh Allen running with the ball more often after Joe Brady took over, lead running back James Cook also saw an uptick in carries, averaging 17.0 carries per game in the final seven games of the regular season and their two playoff games, as opposed to 12.0 carries per game in the first 10 games of the season. It is worth noting that his efficiency dropped off though, like the rest of this offense, as he went from averaging 5.13 yards per carry to 4.33 yards per carry. A 2nd round pick in 2022, Cook flashed a lot of potential with a 5.70 YPC average on 89 rookie year carries, but it’s possible the 5-11 190 back wears down as he sees largely carry totals and would be best off as part of a tandem with a bigger power back. 

Unfortunately, the Bills don’t really have a good option for that role unless they get a surprising rookie season out of 4th round pick Ray Davis, who at least has the size to complement Cook at 5-8 220. Cook is also a good pass catcher, with a yards per route run average of 1.44 in his two seasons in the league. Even when this offense became more run heavy down the stretch last season, Cook saw his pass production increase, with a 28/249/3 slash line in 9 games with Joe Brady, as opposed to 24/222/1 in 10 games with Ken Dorsey. 

Cook figures to continue having a big passing game role, though it’s worth noting that the rookie Davis also has good receiving upside, with 62 catches in his final two collegiate seasons, and the Bills also have veteran Ty Johnson, who has played sparingly in his career, but has seen 74.4% of his career 1,158 snaps come on passing plays, with an average of 1.08 yards per route run (4.44 YPC on 238 career carries, against defenses that were mostly expecting the pass). All three backs could see action in passing situations this season, but Cook figures to remain the feature back, both as a runner and a pass catcher. He has a high upside, but might not be big enough to be a true feature back and their depth behind him is pretty suspect.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bills also parted ways with long-time center Mitch Morse this off-season, making him a cap casualty ahead of a 8.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2024, but he won’t be too hard to replace, after he posted a decent, but unspectacular 64.5 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. To replace him, expect the Bills to move left guard Connor McGovern inside. McGovern has only made one start at center in the NFL, but he played there extensively in college and should be able to make the position switch relatively easily. 

McGovern has been underwhelming in 46 career starts in five seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2019 and received a 58.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but his likely replacement at left guard, David Edwards, could be an upgrade on what Morse was at center so, in the aggregate, the Bills probably won’t miss Morse. Edwards hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2021, but he had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 respectively in 2020 and 2021 with the Rams, while making 31 starts in those two seasons combined. 

Edwards was limited to 230 snaps with the Rams in 2022 by injuries and only played 148 snaps as a reserve with the Bills in 2023, but he’s still only in his age 27 season and should be able to bounce back to being at least a decent starter in 2024. The rest of this offensive line will remain the same in 2024. At the other guard spot opposite Edwards, 2023 2nd round pick O’Cyrus Torrence will be the starter for the second straight season. He was underwhelming with a 56.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie in 2023, but he has a good chance to be better in year two, possibly a lot better. 

At tackle, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown remain, on the left and right side respectively. Dawkins has been their best offensive lineman for years and that should remain the case in 2024. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Dawkins has been a starter since his rookie season, making 106 starts in seven seasons, while never finishing worse than 69.9 on PFF, which came back in his second season in the league in 2018. In 2023, he finished with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. He’s going into his age 30 season in 2024 and could start to decline soon, but even if he does, he’s likely to remain an above average starter for at least another season.

Brown, on the other hand, is not as good. He did have a career best 68.1 PFF grade in a career high 17 starts in 2023, after the 2021 1st round pick had PFF grades of 62.6 and 51.4 in a combined 24 starts in his first two seasons in the league. Brown is only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue being a solid starter like he was last season, or possibly even better than last season, but he could also regress, given his inconsistent history.

The Bills also signed veteran right tackle La’El Collins in free agency this off-season, but he figures to be a reserve, despite his extensive history as a starter. Collins has made 86 starts in nine seasons in the league and has mostly been an above average starter, including PFF grades of 72.5, 86.4, and 82.0 in 2018, 2019, and 2021 (41 combined starts), but he missed all of 2020 with injury, fell to a 57.9 PFF grade in 2022 (15 starts), then again missed all of the 2023 season with injury, and now heads into his age 31 season with an extensive recent injury history and his last above average season coming three years ago. He’s an above average insurance policy to have and could be a solid starter if forced into action, but I wouldn’t consider him a legitimate threat to Spencer Brown’s starting job at right tackle.

On the interior, the Bills’ depth isn’t as good. They used a 5th round pick on Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, a collegiate center who could also play guard if needed, but he probably would struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. Will Clapp is their most experienced veteran option and he has the versatility to play both guard and center, but the 2018 7th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league (21 starts), including a 56.7 PF grade in a career high 11 starts for the Chargers in 2023. Either way, the Bills would likely be in trouble if one of their interior offensive line starters got hurt this season. This isn’t a bad offensive line overall though, with David Edwards essentially replacing veteran Mitch Morse, which should be at worst a lateral move, and they at least have a good swing tackle option in La’El Collins, even if their interior depth is a concern.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bills lost more on defense this off-season than they did on offense, with four of their top-9 in terms of snaps played last season now gone, among other more minor players. At the edge defender spot, the Bills lost Leonard Floyd, who had a 56.3 PFF grade on 576 snaps, as well as Shaq Lawson, who played a smaller role, with a 48.1 PFF grade on 322 snaps. In their absence, the Bills will probably give bigger roles to Greg Rousseau (585 snaps) and AJ Epenesa (388 snaps), who excelled in their limited roles last season with PFF grades of 85.6 and 80.3 respectively and pressure rates of 14.9% and 13.1% respectively.

Rousseau was a first round pick in 2021 and has shown a lot of promise in part-time roles through three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 70.2 and 83.6 on snap counts of 531 and 463 prior to last season and a combined 17 sacks, 26 hits, and 13.6% pressure rate in 46 career games. Still only in his age 24 season, Rousseau could be in for a huge 2024 season if he sees a significantly bigger snap count and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain highly effective in a part-time role.

Epenesa, on the other hand, was a second round pick in 2020 and had posted mostly mediocre grades on PFF prior to last season, finishing in the 50s and 60s with a combined 9.7% pressure rate, and he’s never played more than 388 snaps in a season in four seasons in the league, even including last year. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, but doesn’t have the same upside as Rousseau and could easily regress in 2024, especially if he has to play a bigger role and proves unable to hold up on a higher snap count.

The Bills will also be hoping for more out of Von Miller, who was limited to a 45.4 PFF grade and a 7.3% pressure rate in 2023 on a snap count of 257 in 12 games in an injury plagued season. Miller is one of the most accomplished edge defenders in the league over the past decade plus, exceeding 80 on PFF in 11 of 13 seasons in the league, including most recently a 85.8 PFF grade in 2022, albeit in an injury shortened season in which he played just 450 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season with a significant recent injury history and, even if he stays healthy and bounces back in 2024, his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point. Still, if he could even be a talented rotational player for the Bills this season, that would be a big boost over what he gave them a year ago.

The Bills did add some depth to this group this off-season, using a 5th round pick on Javon Solomon and signing veterans Dawuane Smoot and Casey Toohill. Solomon would probably struggle even in a rotational role as a rookie, while Toohill is an underwhelming 2020 7th round pick who has a career 7.4% pressure rate and who received a 52.1 PFF grade on 494 snaps in 2023, but Smoot at least has some potential. 

Smoot struggled mightily with a 42.4 PFF grade on 340 snaps in 2023, while managing just a 6.1% pressure rate, but he was coming off of a major injury and was a lot better in 2021 and 2022, with PFF grades of 68.1 and 70.3 respectively on snap counts of 675 and 445 respectively, while totaling 11 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 31 games. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Smoot has some bounce back potential as a rotational player if he’s healthy again. The Bills lost a couple rotational players in this group this off-season, but they both struggled, so they won’t be missed and, overall, this is still a talented group.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Bills also lost a couple rotational players at the interior defender spot from a year ago, with Jordan Phillips (391 snaps) and Tim Settle (380 snaps) no longer with the team, but they struggled with PFF grades of 35.8 and 58.2 respectively, so they probably won’t be missed. The replacements the Bills added, veteran journeymen Austin Johnson and DeShawn Williams and third round rookie DeWayne Carter are underwhelming options, but the Bills should at least get more out of DaQuan Jones, who was limited to 174 snaps in 86.0 games by injuries last season.

Jones excelled in his limited action, with a 86.0 PFF grade, playing the run well but also adding a 14.9% pressure rate. That was a little out of character for Jones, who has been a solid, but unspectacular player for most of his career, receiving grades in the 60s and 70s in eight straight seasons prior to last season, and Jones now heads into his age 33 season, so he’s highly unlikely to be as good over a full season this year as he was in limited action last year, but unless he drops off a cliff significantly, a possibility given his age, he should still be a welcome re-addition to this team. His run defense is probably his best attribute, but he also has decent pass rush numbers in his career, with 14.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 6.5% pressure rate in 139 career games. 

Jones will continue to start next to Ed Oliver, also a solid player, but kind of the opposite of Jones, with mediocre play against the run for most of his career, but also great pass rush production, with 24 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 78 games since going in the first round in 2019. His mediocre run defense has prevented him from exceeding a 71.5 PFF grade in five seasons in the league, but he’s still a useful starter for the Bills and, still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

Newcomers Johnson and Carter will compete to be the top reserve interior defender and both figure to have roles. Johnson is an 8-year veteran, but his career high PFF grade for a season is 66.9, which came on just 231 snaps in 2020. He’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of eight seasons in the league, including three straight seasons and the only two seasons in which he exceeded 400 snaps on the season. Last season, he had the worst season of his career with a 45.7 PFF grade on 641 snaps and now he heads into his age 30 season. He figures to continue struggling in 2024, even in a reserve role. 

Williams is also an aging veteran who has struggled for most of his career, going into his age 32 season and coming off of three straight seasons in which he has finished below 60 on PFF, with grades of 56.2, 55.4, and 50.0 on snap counts of 386, 598, and 443 respectively. Carter, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term starter, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Oliver and Jones are a solid starting duo, but the Bills’ depth is a concern at this position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, the Bills lost Tyrel Dodson, who played at a very high level last season, with a 89.5 PFF grade, albeit on just 550 snaps as an injury replacement for Matt Milano, a regular starter who played just 211 snaps in 5 games in 2023 before suffering a season ending injury. Milano returns healthy for the 2024 season and is an above average every down player when on the field, surpassing 70 on PFF in three straight seasons, but durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 25 games in 7 seasons in the league, missing time in every season except his rookie season. Milano is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury and the Bills don’t have a backup plan that is anywhere near as good as Dodson, with 2023 3rd round pick Dorian Williams, who was mediocre on 211 snaps as a rookie last season, as their top reserve.

Terrel Bernard returns as the other every down linebacker opposite Milano. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Bernard showed some promise while playing sparingly as a rookie (111 snaps), before having a solid season as a starter in 2023, with a 64.0 PFF grade on 999 snaps. Still only in his age 25 season, he should continue being at least a solid starter in 2024 and he has the upside to take a step forward and be even better in his third season in the league. Milano and Bernard are a solid linebacking duo, but the Bills’ depth could be a question mark if Dorian Williams doesn’t take a step forward in year two and, even if he does, the Bills will still likely miss Tyrel Dodson, who left as a free agent this off-season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group with the biggest changes on the Bills’ defense this off-season is safety, where the starting duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer was let go this off-season, after seven seasons together. Both still played pretty well last season, with PFF grades of 64.4 and 73.0 on snap counts of 796 and 987 respectively, but they were going into their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively in 2024 and Poyer was owed 5.75 million, so the Bills made him a cap casualty and didn’t re-sign Hyde as a free agent.

The Bills have options to replace them, but they all figure to be downgrades. They used a second round pick on Cole Bishop and added veterans Dee Delaney and Mike Edwards to a group that also has Taylor Rapp, another veteran who played 422 snaps as a reserve last season, but who previously was a starter with the Rams and who has 52 starts in five seasons in the league. Rapp struggled with a 56.4 PFF grade last season, but the 2019 2nd round pick previously had PFF grades over 60 in each of his first four seasons in the league, maxing out at 76.2 on 976 snaps as recently as 2022. Only in his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential and has a good chance to at least be an average starter.

I would expect Rapp to start alongside the rookie Bishop, but both Delaney and Edwards will be in the mix as well and could win the starting job if Bishop disappoints. Neither have ever been season long starters though, maxing out at 449 snaps and 814 snaps in a season in 6 seasons and 5 seasons in the league respectively. Delaney at least had a 63.4 PFF grade last season on his career high 449 snaps, but Edwards has finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Both would almost definitely be underwhelming starting options if forced into action, so the Bills will be hoping Bishop wins the job, but he could have growing pains as a rookie.

The Bills also moved on from veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White this off-season, rather than paying him 12.5 million in 2024, but he had been very injury prone in recent years and had just a 68.0 PFF grade in just 182 snaps in 4 games last season, so he won’t be missed that much. To replace him, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas mid-season last year and he will continue to start opposite Christian Benford, with Taron Johnson remaining as the slot cornerback in sub packages.

Johnson is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, exceeding 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a career best 80.4 PFF grade last season. Only in his age 28 season, he should continue playing well in 2024, though he might not repeat the best season of his career again and his previous career high PFF grade was 69.7. Douglas also played at a high level last season after being added via trade, with a 80.1 PFF grade on 503 snaps in 9 games. That was also a career best for him, but it wasn’t too out of character for him, as he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 as well. The 2017 3rd round pick was a late bloomer, but he’s still only in his age 29 season and should continue being an above average starter in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago.

Benford was just a 6th round pick in 2022 and struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade on 363 snaps as a rookie, but he broke out in a big way in 2023, with a 82.2 PFF grade on 824 snaps. He might not be quite as good again, but he played more than well enough to keep his starting job and he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, even if he regresses from his improbably good 2023 season. Finding Benford in the 6th round of that 2022 draft makes up for the fact that their first round pick that year, another cornerback Kaiir Elam, has been a big bust thus far, playing just 634 snaps in two seasons in the league, in part due to injuries (18 games missed), in part due to his struggles, as he’s received PFF grades of 56.7 and 58.8 thus far in two seasons in the league. 

Elam is only going into his age 23 season in 2024 still could develop into something useful long-term, but that’s far from a guarantee and he’ll start this season no higher than 4th on the depth chart, given how well the Bills top-3 cornerbacks played ahead of him a year ago. The Bills top cornerback trio of Douglas, Benford, and Johnson all might not be as good as a year ago and they lost their two solid starting safeties, but their cornerbacks should play at a relatively high level and their safeties at least aren’t bad.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bills probably aren’t as good overall as they were a year ago after some off-season losses, but they were one of the best teams in the league overall last season, finishing 3rd in overall DVOA, and they still have one of the top quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, who should continue keeping this team in contention. Whether or not they can finally get over the hump in the loaded AFC and make the Super Bowl over the likes of the Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens remains to be seen, but they should be considered on the short list of contenders in 2024. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Bills after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC East

New England Patriots 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Quarterback

The Patriots went 4-13 last season, tied for the second worst record in the league, but there were some reasons for optimism going into the off-season. While their offense struggled mightily, ranking 29th in DVOA, their defense was good, ranking 9th, and, as a result, many of their losses a year ago were close, with 8 of 13 decided by seven points or fewer. They also had the 3rd pick in this year’s draft, one of the best in terms of top quarterback talent in recent memory, they had among the most cap space in the league entering the off-season, and a they had significant amount of talent set to return from injury, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league a year ago.

However, things did not go nearly as well as they could have this off-season. They started the off-season by firing long-term head coach and GM Bill Belichick, who had increasingly had trouble winning in the post-Tom Brady era, going 29-38 in four seasons without the legendary quarterback, while not winning a single playoff game. Belichick deserves a lot of the blame for the Patriots’ inability to find the right quarterback or offensive coordinator to keep this offense at least competitive after the loss of Brady and, subsequently, after the loss of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Belichick also deserves a lot of the blame for some of the Patriots’ poor personnel decisions in recent years as the Patriots GM, particularly their drafts.

However, Belichick had proven to still be one of the best defensive minds in the game and it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots defense will be as good as it was a year ago without him. The Patriots did promote internally from that defense, making Jerod Mayo their new head coach, but Mayo is very young and inexperienced for a head coaching hire and never called plays or held the title defensive coordinator, so it’s fair to wonder if he can continue having the same success on that side of the ball without one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time leading the way, especially since defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance.

The Patriots also did very little in the way of adding new talent to this team this off-season, opting to use some of their cap space to lock in key members of last year’s team and saving the rest, so this roster still very much resembles the one built by Belichick as a GM. The Patriots still have about 46 million in cap space, most in the NFL, and have the 6th lowest average annual value in the league, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage. 

The Patriots should still be much healthier than a year ago and they did use their 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback Drake Maye, but Maye enters the league pretty raw and the Patriots haven’t really given him the talent around him that he needs to succeed. In fact, it’s very possible the Patriots sit Maye for at least a big chunk of his rookie season so he can sit and learn, rather than putting him in a tough situation and letting him potentially develop bad habits.

The Patriots brought back Jacoby Brissett, their former backup, to be the stopgap quarterback until they are ready to play Maye. in 48 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, Brissett hasn’t been bad, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 6.61 YPA, 51 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions (85.3 QB rating), and it wouldn’t be hard for either Brissett or Maye to be better than what the Patriots had at quarterback last year, when their ranked 30th in the league with a 73.8 QB rating, but Brissett isn’t the kind of quarterback who can elevate a poor supporting cast and it’s unlikely he finds much success this season. It’s ultimately very likely that the Patriots will have no choice but to throw Maye into the fire earlier than they’d like, with Brissett unlikely to win many games. Brissett is not a bad stopgap and Maye has a huge upside, but for 2024, this looks like a pretty weak quarterback situation, relative to the rest of the league.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

One group that should be healthier than a year ago in the Patriots’ receiving corps. This was already a weak group going into last season, but things went from bad to worse when they lost Kendrick Bourne, who had a 37/406/4 slash line and a 1.73 yards per route run average in 8 games, to a torn ACL. In Bourne’s absence, 6th round rookie DeMario Douglas took on a bigger role and did pretty well, posting a 39/418/0 slash line in a 9-game stretch and finishing the season with a 49/561/0 slash line and a 1.70 yards per route run average, but he also missed significant time with injuries. This season Bourne and Douglas both return, the former after re-signing on a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal this off-season, and both should play in three wide receiver sets with second round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk. 

The Patriots also used a 4th round pick on Javon Baker, signed veteran KJ Osborn in free agency, and have JuJu Smith-Schuster and TyQuan Thornton, who they have made big investments in recently, Smith-Schuster on a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal given last off-season and Thornton being added in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. However, I don’t have high expectations for any of those four players.

Osborn has been the #3 wide receiver with the Vikings for the past three seasons, but he’s been underwhelming, with a 1.11 yards per route run average, and he only signed for 1-year and 4 million this off-season. Baker is a rookie and not a highly drafted one. Thornton was highly drafted, but has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, averaging just 0.73 yards per route run and missing 12 games with injury. Smith-Schuster has a history of some success, exceeding 2 yards per route run in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has an average of just 1.40 yards per route run in five seasons since and even that is inflated by a 1.77 yards per route run average he had in 2022 with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football.

Even their top-3 of Bourne, Douglas, and Polk have their uncertainties. Obviously Polk is a rookie and could have some growing pains in year one, even if he enters the league with a lot of upside. Bourne is coming off of a major injury and, even if he bounces back to form, he’s still an underwhelming #1 option, with a 1.67 yards per route run average in the past four seasons combined. Douglas, meanwhile, was only a 6th round pick a year ago and, while he showed promise as a rookie, it was in a very limited sample size. This group has some options and should be better than a year ago, but they are pretty underwhelming overall.

With the issues they have at wide receiver, expect tight end Hunter Henry to be a big part of the offense again, after he finished third on the team in catches, second in receiving yards, and first in touchdowns last season. Still, that only translated to a 42/419/6 slash line, the worst receiving yardage total of his 8 seasons in the league, and a 1.13 yards per route run average, also a career worst. Quarterback play was part of the problem for Henry, as it was for all of these pass catcher, but he has a 1.27 yards per route run average over the past four seasons total and now heads into his age 30 season. 

The Patriots gave Henry a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal to stay as a free agent this off-season, making him the 14th highest paid tight end in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he could easily prove to not be worth that. Behind Henry, the Patriots signed another underwhelming veteran, Austin Hooper, on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar deal. In total, Hooper has averaged 1.22 yards per route run over the past four seasons, including 0.87 yards per route run last season, and he now heads into his age 30 season. Neither Henry nor Hooper are particularly good blockers either. Overall, this is a very underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Aside from the receiving corps, the Patriots’ offensive line was their biggest need coming into the off-season. The Patriots did re-sign Mike Onwenu on a well-deserved 3-year, 57 million dollar deal, after the 2020 6th round pick received PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, and 71.5 in the four seasons of his rookie deal, with his career worst year in 2023 becoming a lot better once the Patriots moved him to right tackle in week 7 (79.3 PFF grade from then on). However, the Patriots didn’t do anything to improve this group this off-season and it’s hard to see how they’ll be better than a year ago, when they ranked 12th on PFF in run blocking grade and 29th in pass blocking grade.

Left tackle Trent Brown was injury prone last season, limited to 579 snaps in 11 games, but he played well when on the field with a 80.2 PFF grade and he signed elsewhere as a free agent this off-season. In his place, the Patriots signed veteran Chukwuma Okorafor and used a third round pick on Caeden Walllace. Okorafor was a starter for the Steelers for three and a half seasons starting in 2020 (55 starts), but he posted mediocre grades of 57.5, 63.6, 61.2, and 60.4 and was eventually benched mid-season during the 2023 season and then subsequently cut this off-season. Okorafor also has mostly played at the easier right tackle spot, with just two career starts at left tackle, coming back in his rookie season in 2018, so he could really struggle on the blindside for the Patriots. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he ended up getting benched mid-season for the second straight year in favor of the rookie Wallace, but Wallace probably wouldn’t fare much better.

On the interior of the offensive line, the Patriots have center David Andrews, who is probably their second best offensive lineman behind Onwenu, right guard Sidy Sow, a 2023 4th round pick who was decent with a 64.4 PFF grade in 13 starts after Onwenu moved to right tackle last season, and left guard Cole Strange, a 2022 1st round pick who has been a disappointment thus far and who is also coming off of a significant knee injury that has him questionable for the start of the 2024 season.

Andrews has made 117 starts in eight healthy seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, with six seasons above 70, including a 71.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s going into his age 32 season now and could start declining. He’s starting from a pretty high base point, so even if he declines he could remain at least a solid starter, but any decline from him would be a concern for an offensive line that is already in rough shape. Strange, meanwhile, struggled with a 54.6 PFF grade on 982 snaps as a rookie before improving slightly with a 64.6 PFF grade on 564 snaps last season before getting hurt. If he wasn’t coming off of an injury, I would like his chances of taking a step forward in year three, but the injury throws a lot of uncertainty to the mix, as he could miss time to begin the year and/or not be 100% when he returns.

If Strange misses time, the Patriots replacement options are pretty underwhelming. Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi were 4th and 5th round picks in 2023, but Andrews played just 71 mediocre snaps as a rookie, while Mafi struggled mightily with a 32.3 PFF grade in 458 snaps. The Patriots also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Layden Robinson to give themselves some additional depth on the interior, but he also could struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. With Trent Brown gone and Cole Strange having injury uncertainty, this offensive line could be even worse than a year ago, when they were already an underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Another key offensive playmaker the Patriots lost to injury last season was running back Rhomandre Stevenson, who missed the final five games. He only averaged 3.97 YPC on 156 carries, but that was largely because of the lack of talent around him on offense and he was significantly more efficient than the Patriots’ other running back Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged just 3.49 YPC, leading the team with 184 carries because he stayed healthy all season. A 4th round pick in 2021, Stevenson still has a career 4.54 YPC average on 499 carries in three seasons in the league, despite his underwhelming average last season, and he also contributes in the passing game with a 1.17 yards per route run average and 121 catches in 41 career games. Still only in his age 26 season, Stevenson should be at least a solid all-around back again in 2024.

The Patriots also signed Antonio Gibson to replace Ezekiel Elliott as the #2 back. He only has a career 4.12 YPC average on 642 carries, but has mostly played on mediocre offenses in Washington and he also contributes in the passing game with a career 1.30 yards per route run average and 172 catches in 61 career games, so he’s an above average #2 back. Stevenson, who was on pace for 284 touches last season before getting hurt, will remain the lead back, but Gibson should have a significant role behind him. Depth behind Stevenson and Gibson is a concern because their third back is Kevin Harris, a 2022 6th round pick with just 37 career touches, but the Patriots at least have a solid top-2 at this position.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Patriots defense could have trouble repeating their solid play from a year ago without Bill Belichick at the helm, but there are some reasons for optimism with this group, as the Patriots also had significant injuries on this side of the ball and should be healthier in 2024. One of their biggest injury losses last season was top edge defender Matt Judon, who only played 184 snaps in 4 games due to injury and who had a 70.2 PFF grade with 4 sacks, 5 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. His absence was huge because the Patriots struggled to create pressure off the edge without him.

Anfernee Jennings led this group in snaps played with 677 and, while he was a strong run defender, he struggled mightily as a pass rusher with just 1.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 7.6% pressure rate. Deatrich Wise (615 snaps) also struggled as a pass rusher with 4.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate and didn’t even play the run well either, leading to him finishing the year with a 54.3 grade overall on PFF. Keion White (522 snaps) was mostly just a run stopper as well, finishing the season with 1 sack, 4 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate, while Josh Uche was an effective situational pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 6 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate, but only saw 331 snaps on the season because the Patriots didn’t trust his run defense.

Judon returns in 2024 to a group that is otherwise the same. Prior his injury plagued 2023, Judon had 58.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in 96 games over his previous six seasons, while only missing three games total, so the bounce back potential is high here, but it’s also worth noting that he’s going into his age 32 season and could decline in 2024. Even if he does, he should still be a welcome re-addition, but the Patriots might not be getting the best version of Judon at this point in his career. Wise also might have some bounce back potential, as he had 15 sacks, 29 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate in 63 games in his previous four seasons prior to last season, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days might be behind him. 

Jennings and White will likely remain in base package roles, with the former re-signing on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Jennings was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has just a 8.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s also exceeded 70 in run defense grade on PFF in every season in the league except 2021, when he missed the whole season due to injury. White, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2023 and could take a step forward in year two after posting a 64.2 overall grade as a rookie, but he’ll likely always remain a better run defender than pass rusher.

Uche also re-signed with the Patriots this off-season on an incentivized 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and will likely remain in a sub package role. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Uche has 18.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate in 51 career games, but he’s also never played more than 373 snaps in a season because of his struggles against the run. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. This group should be better in 2024 because of the return of Matt Judon and they have some decent situational players at this position aside from Judon, but Judon and arguably their second best all-around edge defender Deatrich Wise are both on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

With Judon missing most of last season, the Patriots were led in sacks by an interior defender, Christian Barmore, who had 8.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Barmore has been a good pass rusher throughout his career, exceeding 70 in pass rush grade on PFF in all three seasons in the league, while totaling 12.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 44 games, but last season was the first season he didn’t struggle against the run, going from a 45.8 PFF run defense grade and a 46.9 PFF run defense grade in 2021 and 2022 respectively to a 67.8 PFF run defense grade last season. 

As a result of that, Barmore had his best overall PFF grade at 83.8, up significantly from 63.5 and 68.6 in his first two seasons in the league. It’s possible he regresses as a run defender in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s turned a corner in that aspect of his game and, even if he hasn’t, he should remain a high level pass rusher at the very least. Still only going into his age 25 season, the Patriots wisely locked Barmore up long-term on a 4-year, 83 million dollar deal that makes him the 11th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

Davon Godchaux will remain the starter next to Barmore, but he’s not nearly as good of a player. Godchaux has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 4.4% pressure rate in seven seasons in the league, but that fell to an all-time low of 2.1% in 2023 and he wasn’t that good as a run defender either, unlike earlier in his career. As a result, he fell to an overall grade of 50.2 on 685 snaps on PFF, his second straight overall grade under 60 after posting a 53.1 PFF grade on 659 snaps in 2022. Now heading into his age 30 season, I would expect Godchaux to continue struggling in 2024.

The Patriots parted ways with veteran Lawrence Guy this off-season, which isn’t really a loss because he had a 45.5 PFF grade on 522 snaps last season, but the Patriots still don’t really have good depth at this position. They signed Armon Watts in free agency and he’s at least a solid situational pass rusher, with a career 7.2% pressure rate, but he’s not much of a run defender and, as a result, has played just 466 snaps per season over the past four seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. 

Daniel Ekuale returns after missing all but three games (53 snaps) due to injury last season, but he’s not a great depth option either, only exceeding 60 on PFF in two of six seasons in the league, while never playing more than 362 snaps in a season. To mask their lack of depth on the interior, expect the Patriots to use Keion White and Deatrich Wise, their two biggest edge defenders at 6-5 290 and 6-5 280 respectively, on the interior more frequently, something they did somewhat regularly in 2023. Christian Barmore is one of the best interior defenders in the league, especially as a pass rusher, but this is a very top heavy position group. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The biggest concern for this defense without Belichick is that the players who struggled elsewhere, but broke out with the Patriots will regress without Belichick’s guidance and scheme. A big example of that is top linebacker Jahlani Tavai. A 2nd round pick by the Lions in 2019, Tavai struggled in his first home, with PFF grades of 61.6 and 32.1 on snap counts of 597 and 624 respectively, before landing in New England, where he has posted PFF grades of 73.5 and 86.6 on snap counts of 570 and 838 over the past two seasons respectively. Going into his age 28 season, Tavai should theoretically be in his prime, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him regress in 2024 due to the coaching change, which would be a big blow to this defense, as he was arguably their best defensive player a year ago.

Jawhaun Bentley will remain the other every down linebacker next to Tavai. A 5th round pick in 2018, Bentley showed promise early in his career in limited action, before breaking out in a larger role over the past few seasons, with PFF grades of 68.2, 80.4, and 65.8 on snap counts of 693, 907, and 984 over the past three seasons respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. He might miss the leadership of his former head coach, but I wouldn’t consider him as strong a candidate to regress as Tavai. 

Mack Wilson excelled as the third linebacker with a 81.5 PFF grade on 305 snaps last season, but wasn’t brought back for 2024. In Wilson’s place, the Patriots signed Sione Takitaki, who should be a solid third linebacker, though not as good as Wilson was a year ago. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Takitaki has been a part-time player his whole career, maxing out at 563 snaps in a season, with an average of 377 snaps per season, but he’s always played pretty well, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with a 71.2 PFF grade on 435 snaps in 2020. 

In 2023, Takitaki played a career high in snaps and received a 68.6 PFF grade. He probably won’t play quite as much in New England unless there are injuries, but he should be a useful role player in base packages. This is a solid linebacking corps, but they might not get the high level play they got a year ago, with Mack Wilson gone and Bill Belichick no longer around to get the most out of Jahlani Tavai.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with Matt Judon, the other big injury loss on the Patriots’ defense last season was cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was only a rookie, but the first round pick entered the league with a ton of potential and had a 80.8 PFF grade across 209 snaps through four games before getting hurt. It’s a small sample size and I wouldn’t expect Gonzalez to keep that up over the course of a whole season, but he at least has the potential to and, even if he doesn’t, he should still be an above average starter.

Marcus Jones also missed most of last season with injury, limited to 44 snaps in two games, and he should be their primary slot cornerback in 2024 now that he’s healthy again. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Jones is still unproven, only playing 371 snaps as a rookie before barely playing last season, but he had a 67.6 grade as a rookie and a 64.2 grade last season, so he’s flashed at least some potential and is probably the Patriots best option on the slot.

Myles Bryant (852 snaps), JC Jackson (439 snaps), and Jack Jones (127 snaps) are all no longer with the team, but they mostly struggled last season, with PFF grades of 66.6, 35.4, and 46.6 respectively, so they won’t really be missed. They weren’t replaced, but the Patriots at least have Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones back healthy. Jonathan Jones (724 snaps) does return and he figures to remain a starter. He had a 76.5 PFF grade last season and has finished above 60 on PFF in his last five seasons, with three seasons over 70 and a career best 80.7 in 2020. Jones is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start declining soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he should remain at least a solid starting outside cornerback opposite Gonzalez, with Jones likely on the slot.

Their other slot options are Shaun Wade and Alex Austin, who return after decent seasons in limited roles in 2023, with PFF grades of 66.3 and 61.8 on snap counts of 348 and 211 respectively. Wade was a 5th round pick in 2021 and only played 29 snaps in two seasons prior to last season, so he’s a very unproven option, but he at least has some upside. Austin is in a similar situation as an unproven former late round pick, going in the 7th round in 2023. They’re pretty underwhelming depth options and will almost definitely remain behind Marcus Jones on the depth chart as long as he stays healthy.

To mask their lack of depth at cornerback, the Patriots could use three safeties together in sub packages frequently. Jalen Mills, their 3rd safety a year ago, is no longer with the team after playing 459 snaps, but he had a 59.1 PFF grade and the Patriots have 2023 3rd round pick Marte Mapu waiting in the wings, so Mills won’t really be missed. Mapu had a 50.0 PFF grade on 204 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to take a step forward in year two. He’s a versatile player who can play on the slot and at linebacker if needed.

Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger remain as the starters and both are also versatile. Dugger, a 2nd round pick in 2020, was re-signed to a 4-year, 58 million dollar deal this off-season after being transition tagged, making him the 7th highest paid safety in the league in terms of average annual value. Dugger isn’t quite worth that kind of money, but he’s a good, young player that the Patriots couldn’t afford to let leave, finishing above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league. Last season was actually the lowest PFF grade of his career, as he finished at 61.7, but he had a 78.4 PFF grade the year before and, only in his age 28 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2024.

Peppers, on the other hand, is coming off of a dominant season with a 87.3 PFF grade on 955 snaps, but, like Jahlani Tavai, he’s another player who could regress significantly without Belichick around. A first round pick in 2017, Peppers was underwhelming in his first two stops with the Browns and Giants, finishing in the 50s and 60s on PFF in all but one season, but he jumped to a 75.0 PFF grade in a part-time role (398) in his first season in New England in 2022 and then broke out even further as an every down player in 2023. 

Still only in his age 29 season, Peppers is theoretically still in his prime, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll regress without the head coach who got the most out of him over the past two seasons. This secondary has a lot of upside if Christian Gonzalez can reach his potential and Jabrill Peppers can avoid regressing, but their depth is also suspect and if Gonzalez doesn’t reach his potential and Peppers regresses, they will lack any true impact players.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The big off-season move the Patriots made was firing long-time head coach and GM Bill Belichick. Belichick’s defensive leadership would be missed, but letting go of him gave the Patriots an opportunity to enter a new era and, armed with the 3rd overall pick and significant cap space, the Patriots had the ammunition to improve in a hurry. Instead, they saved most of their cap space and what money they did spend they mostly spent re-signing players that Belichick had brought in. 

The Patriots did use the 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, but he enters the league pretty raw and doesn’t have the talent he needs around him to have success right away. The Patriots should still be healthier than a year ago and it would be hard for their quarterback situation to be as bad as it was a year ago, which could turn some of their close losses from a year ago into close wins, but, on the other hand, their defense could regress without Belichick’s leadership and, overall, this team doesn’t look anywhere near talented enough to compete even for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Patriots after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC East

Miami Dolphins 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Quarterbacks

Heading into the off-season before the 2019 season, the Dolphins had been stuck in mediocrity for over a decade and a half. They had won at least 6 games in all but 2 of their previous 17 seasons, but had only finished above .500 five times, never winning more than 11 games in a season, with just two playoff appearances and no playoff victories. To try to get out of that cycle, the Dolphins pursued an aggressive rebuilding strategy, trading away numerous veterans to try to tank for a high draft pick and a potential young franchise quarterback, and to accumulate future draft picks and cap space to surround that young franchise quarterback with as much talent as possible while he was still on his cheap rookie deal.

The strategy landed them their 5th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after a 5-11 season and they used that draft pick on Tua Tagovailoa, who they systematically loaded up on talent around over the next few off-seasons, using their draft picks to add more young talent in the draft and to trade for impact veterans, while also being aggressive in free agency. The Dolphins immediately jumped to 10-6 in 2020 and rattled off four consecutive seasons with records above .500, but they still couldn’t get over the hump, maxing out with a 11-6 season in 2023 and losing in the first round of both of their playoff appearances, pushing their playoff win drought to 23 seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL.

Last season was especially frustrating. They came out of the gates looking like one of the best teams in the league, starting 3-0 and 6-2, but went just 5-4 after that hot start. In terms of DVOA, the Dolphins were better than their final record, ranking 6th overall, but that didn’t matter when the post-season began. Many will blame their late season collapse on their schedule getting tougher and, in fact, they did finish just 1-6 against playoff qualifiers if you count their first round post-season loss to the Chiefs, with 5 of those 7 games coming in the second half of the season after their hot start, but they won their games against non-playoff qualifiers convincingly enough that it should have translated into more success against better opponents than they had. 

The bigger problem was they increasingly lost key players to injury down the stretch. They finished the season with the 12th most adjusted games lost to injury, which doesn’t sound bad, but those injuries were disproportionately to their key players and they disproportionately happened down the stretch, to the point where the Dolphins were basically a skeleton crew by season’s end and didn’t stand a chance on the road against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.

Making last season even more frustrating is the fact that their window is starting to close. Tagovailoa is no longer on the cheap part of his rookie contract, owed 23.171 million in 2024 and will be due an increase even from that on his eventual long-term extension, while the bill is starting to come due for many of the talented players the Dolphins surrounded Tagovailoa with over the years. The Dolphins’ aggressive rebuilding strategy made sense, but they had a limited window to go on a deep playoff run and it’s looking like that window is about to close, if it hasn’t already. Rather than continuing to load up on additional talent around the quarterback this off-season, the Dolphins had to part ways with several talented players.

I’ll get into the Dolphins’ off-season losses later, but probably the biggest problem with the Dolphins’ rebuilding strategy was their choice of quarterback, as Tagovailoa has not looked like the right quarterback to lead this team all the way. Tagovailoa struggled for most of his first two seasons in the league, completing a combined 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 21 starts, while repeatedly getting benched for veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Tagovailoa has been a lot more productive over the past two seasons, completing a combined 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.51 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions in 30 starts, but he missed four games with injury in 2022 and, while he stayed healthy in 2023, a lot of his statistical success can be attributed to the talent and scheme he’s had around him and he’s consistently underperformed in big games against tough opponents. Making matters worse for the Dolphins, a quarterback who could have had success with this roster, Justin Herbert, was available for the taking, going just one spot after Tagovailoa to the Chargers with the 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Now the Dolphins are in a tough spot with Tagovailoa. Starting over at the quarterback position would be tough, because the Dolphins don’t have an obvious path to finding a better quarterback, unless they blow it all up again, start completely over, and tried to tank and find another quarterback atop the draft. However, Tagovailoa also isn’t the kind of quarterback who deserves the kind of extension the Dolphins will likely have to give him to stay long-term. 

The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, as it’s very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win at the highest level if that quarterback is taking up a significant portion of the salary cap. If Tagovailoa couldn’t find playoff success with the amount of talent he’s had around him the past couple seasons, it’s unlikely he’ll find that success with a diminished supporting cast and that’s the reality the Dolphins are faced with if and when they ultimately end up paying their quarterback. 

Tagovailoa’s durability also still lingers as a problem. He stayed healthy last season, but has suffered numerous injuries dating back to his collegiate days, most notable a series of concussions that might legitimately have him a concussion or two away from having to either miss significant time or hang them up for good for his own safety. If Tagovailoa misses time in 2024, the Dolphins would turn to Mike White, a mediocre quarterback with a completion percentage of 62.6%, a YPA average of 7.09, and 9 touchdowns to 13 interceptions on 313 career passes since going in the 5th round in 2018.

White would be an obvious downgrade even if Tagovailoa is not an elite quarterback and if White had to start for an extended period of time in 2024, the Dolphins would likely find it difficult to even qualify for the post-season.  The one saving grace is Tagovailoa is only in his age 26 season and still theoretically could have untapped upside, but he’ll have to take his game to another level if this team is ever going to go on a deep playoff run with him under center. There are definitely worse quarterback rooms than this, but the Dolphins are in a very difficult spot from a team building standpoint and, even if they stay healthier than they did a year ago, it’s hard to see them being more successful, in the regular season or in the post-season, given the talented players they lost this off-season, unless Tagovailoa can take his game to another level.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One area where the Dolphins lost key players this off-season was on the offensive line, with Connor Williams and Robert Hunt both not being retained this off-season. Williams and Hunt were among the key players who missed time with injury last season, limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and 547 snaps in 10 games respectively, but they also had PFF grades of 86.5 and 77.1 respectively, so they will definitely be missed. The Dolphins at least somewhat replaced Williams through free agency, signing Aaron Brewer to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal to be their new starting center. 

Undrafted in 2020, Brewer became the Titans full-time starting center in his third season in the league in 2022 and struggled with a 59.9 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he took a step forward in his second season as a starter in 2023, finishing with a 71.6 PFF grade on 17 starts. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level and it’s possible he is unable to repeat that season, but he’s not a bad signing either, for the price the Dolphins got him at. He will almost definitely be a downgrade from Williams even if he doesn’t decline, but at least he should stay healthier than the injury prone Williams.

Hunt, on the other hand, was not replaced this off-season. Instead, the Dolphins will have a competition between Lester Cotton, Robert Jones, and Isaiah Wynn, who all saw starts at guard last season, as well as Jack Driscoll, a low-level free agent signing from the Eagles. Two of those four players will likely open the season as the starting guards and, given that they’re all underwhelming options, it’s likely that three or all four of them see action at some point this season as the Dolphins try to find a combination that works.

Cotton had the most starts of the bunch a year ago, making 8 starts, but that was out of character for him, as the 2019 undrafted free agent had previously played just 95 career snaps in four seasons in the league, and he predictably struggled when forced into a larger role in 2023, finishing with a 46.4 PFF grade. Wynn also struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade in 7 starts, before going down for the season with an injury. Wynn was a first round pick back in 2018, but injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career, costing him 47 games in 6 seasons in the league. He showed some potential early in his career, but injuries seem to have sapped that potential, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Now going into his age 29 season, his bounce back potential is limited, even if he can manage to stay on the field.

Robert Jones wasn’t bad last season, with a 60.9 PFF grade, but injuries also limited him to 418 snaps in 7 games. Undrafted in 2021, Jones also had a 62.0 PFF grade on 449 snaps in 2022, so he’s shown some potential, but he could struggle to hold up as a season-long starter and it’s unlikely he has a lot of upside, given that he wasn’t drafted. Driscoll, meanwhile, made 17 starts in four seasons with the Eagles after being drafted in the 4th round in 2020 and he had mixed results, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of his four seasons in the league and below 60 in his other two seasons. He would also likely struggle if forced into a season-long starting role. Overall, none of the Dolphins four guard options are promising, which is a big concern entering the season.

Making matters worse for the Dolphins on the offensive line, left tackle Terron Armstead is now going into his age 33 season. Armstead has consistently has issues with injuries, missing 59 games in 11 seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in all but one season, including 7 games missed in 2023, but he’s also always played at a pretty high level, exceeding 75 on PFF in ten straight seasons, with six seasons over 80, including a 80.9 PFF grade in 2023. Given his age, Armstead is likely to miss time again with injury at some point in 2024 and it’s very possible he declines noticeably. He’ll probably still remain at least a solid starter even if he does decline, but any drop off from him would be a big deal on an offensive line that already had lost significant talent from a year ago.

Because of Armstead’s age and injury history, the Dolphins used their second round pick on offensive tackle Patrick Paul to give them another insurance policy option. He’ll compete with Kendall Lamm, a veteran who had a 64.3 PFF grade on 613 snaps a year ago, for the swing tackle role. Lamm has been most decent in 37 starts in 9 seasons in the league, mostly as a backup, but he’s going into his age 32 season and doesn’t have a high upside, so Paul is probably the favorite for the top reserve tackle job, even as a rookie.

There are a couple other ways Paul could get on the field besides an injury, as the Dolphins could opt to try him at guard, or they could play him at right tackle and move Austin Jackson inside to guard where he has experience, but there’s no indication the Dolphins are considering doing either of those things and it’s possible Paul could struggle as a rookie if he ends up in a starting role. 

Jackson was a first round pick in 2020, but he was mostly a bust in the first three seasons of his career, with PFF grades of 52.5, 49.9, and 57.9 across 30 starts in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Jackson took a big step forward in year four, finishing with a 68.4 PFF grade in 16 starts, and was subsequently extended on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal after originally having his 5th year option declined. It’s possible he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and came into the league with a lot of talent, so it’s also very possible he’s permanently turned a corner and could remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more. Barring an unexpected move back to guard, Jackson is likely locked into as the starting right tackle. Even if he doesn’t regress though, this is overall a very underwhelming offensive line compared to a year ago.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Fortunately, the Dolphins kept all of their key skill position players this off-season, led by the wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league, Hill and Waddle both finished with PFF grades over 90 in 2023, at 93.7 and 90.7 respectively, and the Dolphins ran a huge portion of their offense through them, as they accounted for 48.6% of the Dolphins targets, 59.9% of their receiving yards, and 56.7% of their receiving touchdowns, all most in the NFL by a wide receiver duo.

For Hill, it was a career best year in terms of yardage (1,799), PFF grade, and yards per route run (3.82), which is even more impressive when you consider that he’s been in the league eight years and has exceeded 80 on PFF in all eight seasons, with 1,267 receiving yards per season and 2.61 yards per route run. Hill’s age is a bit of a concern, now going into his age 30 season, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he figures to remain one of the best wide receivers in the league regardless. The Dolphins paid a steep price to acquire Hill during the 2022 off-season, giving up first and second round picks and giving him a 3-year, 75 million dollar deal, but he has been well worth it, given how he has transformed this offense.

Waddle also transformed this offense when he was added as the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and he has gotten better in every season in the league. His yardage total in 2023 (72/1014/4) was actually the worst of his 3-year career, after slash lines of 104/1015/6 and 75/1356/8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but that was mostly because he missed three games with injury and didn’t run as many routes per game on a more balanced offense. In terms of yards per route run, Waddle had a career high with 2.64 (1.75 in 2021 and 2.59 in 2022) and the same was true of his PFF grade, after he had a 78.3 grade as a rookie and a 83.9 grade in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue playing at a high level in 2024, after the Dolphins wisely locked him up long-term on a 3-year, 84.75 million dollar extension this off-season.

With Hill and Waddle getting a huge chunk of the targets on this offense, there wasn’t much left over for anyone else, with tight end Durham Smythe ranking third on the team in catches, targets, and yards with just 35, 43, and 366 respectively. The Dolphins did add a couple pass catchers in free agency this off-season to give them some more options in the passing game, signing Odell Beckham to be the #3 receiver and tight end Jonnu Smith to compete with Smythe for the starting tight end job, but I wouldn’t expect huge roles for either of them as the Dolphins will continue to run their offense through Hill and Waddle.

Beckham used to be one of the best wide receivers in the league, exceeding 1000 yards in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2014-2019, with the exception being a season ended by injury after 4 games, but injuries have caught up to him in recent years, limiting him to 35 games in the past four seasons, with just a 50/690/5 slash line per 17 games. He still has a decent 1.60 yards per route run average over that 4-year span, but he now heads into his age 32 season and it’s likely he’ll miss more time with injury and/or regress further. 

It wouldn’t be hard for Beckham to be an upgrade over Cedrick Wilson, their nominal #3 receiver a year ago who had a 22/296/3 slash line and a 1.09 yards per route run average, but I don’t expect Beckham to be a big part of this offense unless Hill or Waddle get hurt, in which case he’d be a huge downgrade from either one. Braxton Berrios, meanwhile, remains as the #4 receiver, but he had just a 27/238/1 slash line and a 0.68 yards per route run average in 2023, so he’s not a big part of this offense either. In his career, Berrios has averaged 1.30 yards per route run, but just 0.76 yards per route run over the past two seasons.

Jonnu Smith, meanwhile, has a decent 1.61 yards per route run average over the past five seasons, but he’s been a part-time tight end for most of that time and has never exceeded 582 yards receiving in a season, something he’s unlikely to do in 2024, splitting time with Durham Smythe on an offense that doesn’t utilize the tight end spot much. I would expect him to outproduce Smythe though, as Smythe is more of a blocking specialist who has averaged just 1.00 yards per route run in his career, with a maximum of 366 yards receiving in a season in six seasons in the league. Beckham and Smith upgrade this offense slightly, but this receiving corps still will run through Hill and Waddle, who remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Dolphins also got great production from their top two running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane in 2023. Mostert led the team with 209 carries and averaged 4.84 YPC with 18 touchdowns in 15 games, while Achane averaged a ridiculous 7.77 YPC, but was limited to just 103 carries in 11 games. When both backs were healthy though, that carry split was a lot closer. Excluding two games where Achane played but was clearly not healthy and only had one carry, Achane and Mostert were healthy for seven games together and Mostert had 88 carries to 77 for Achane in those seven games.

In 2024, I would expect them to continue having a pretty even split as long as both are healthy and it’s very possible that Achane ends up as the top back. Not only did he significantly outproduce Mostert last season, but Achane was only a rookie last season, while Mostert is now going into his age 32 season. Achane is also a significantly better pass catcher, averaging 1.12 yards per route run last season, as opposed to 0.68 for Mostert, who has a career average of 0.88. Durability is a concern for Achane after an injury plagued rookie season, but Mostert has a significant history of injuries as well, missing 26 games over the past five seasons, and as a result he’s never had more carries in a season than the 209 carries he had last season, when he also missed a couple games with injury.

Regardless of the carry split, Achane and Mostert should both remain very effective running backs. Achane is highly unlikely to average anywhere close to what he averaged last season, especially in a larger role, partially because no one has that kind of average for an extended period of time, partially because the Dolphins’ offensive line won’t be as good this season, but he should still remain a highly effective back. Mostert, meanwhile, has a career 4.84 YPC average and, even if he doesn’t match that this season, given his age and the Dolphins’ offensive line situation, he should still remain an effective back. 

The Dolphins will be hoping both Achane and Mostert will be healthier than they were a year ago, but the Dolphins used a 4th round pick on Jaylen Wright to improve their depth at the position. Last season, Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed were their top backs behind Mostert and Achane and they averaged just 3.95 yards per carry with 0.97 yards per route run combined. Wilson does have a career 4.49 YPC average, but he has just 515 carries in six seasons in the league and has averaged just 0.85 yards per route run, while Ahmed has averaged just 3.64 YPC on 163 carries in four seasons in the league, with 1.00 yards per route run. There’s no guarantee that Jaylen Wright will be better than them as a rookie, but the Dolphins at least like his upside and there’s a chance he ends up as a long-term replacement for the aging Raheem Mostert. This remains a talented backfield and they could be deeper than a year ago if the rookie Jaylen Wright has an impact.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Dolphins’ defense is where the majority of their off-season losses were. Since last season, 5 of their top-9 and 9 of their top-17 in terms of snaps played on defense are no longer on the team. The player they lost who played the best last season is edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel, who had a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, totaling 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate and also excelling as a run defender and in coverage, before signing with the Vikings on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season. The Dolphins also lost Emmanuel Ogbah, though he played just 248 snaps in 14 games last season, contributing as a pass rusher with 5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate, but struggling mightily against the run and finishing with an overall 55.4 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed too much.

To try to replace the players they lost, the Dolphins signed veteran Shaq Barrett to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal and then used their first round pick on Chop Robinson. Both will have significant roles this season along with holdovers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips. Chubb excelled last season, finishing with a 88.8 PFF grade, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher with 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate, in his first full season in Miami after being acquired for a first round pick during the 2022 season, when the Dolphins also gave him a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension.

A first round pick in 2018 by the Broncos, Chubb had shown a lot of promise in his career prior to last season, especially as a pass rusher, with 28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games, but he missed 25 games with injury in those five seasons and consistently struggled against the run, leading to him maxing out with a 70.7 season-long PFF grade during those five seasons. Chubb is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him either regress somewhat after by far the best season of his career and/or miss more time with injury, after playing all but one game a year ago.

Phillips also played well last season with a 79.8 PFF grade, but he was limited to 8 games by injuries and is questionable for the start of the 2024 season after an achilles tear. Even if he is ready for the start of the season, he might not be at his best in his first year back. That being said, even at less than his best, he’s a welcome re-addition. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2021, Phillips was underwhelming as a rookie, but he’s been much better the past two seasons, maxing out with a 87.7 PFF grade on 838 snaps in 2022 and totaling 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games, while also playing the run well. Still only in his age 25 season, he has a very bright future if he can get past his injury.

First round rookie Chop Robinson and veteran free agent acquisition Shaq Barrett give the Dolphins good depth at this position and will rotate with Chubb and Phillips frequently. Robinson could have growing pains as a rookie, but he has a high upside long-term and he should at least be a useful rotational player as a rookie. Barrett, meanwhile, is probably on the way down, going into his age 32 season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that he should continue playing at a relatively high level in a rotational role. 

Barrett finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, playing the run well and adding 51.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 107 games, despite going undrafted in 2014. He fell to a 68.3 PFF grade in an injury shortened season in 2022 (382 snaps), but bounced back pretty well with a 75.3 PFF grade in 2023, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Because of his age, he was still let go by the Buccaneers ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary this off-season, but he could be a great value for the Dolphins on a much cheaper deal. The Dolphins will miss Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb could regress after a career best year in 2023, but this is still a deep and talented position group, arguably deeper than a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins also lost a key player at the interior defender position this off-season, letting Christian Wilkins walk in free agency, despite a 2023 season in which he had a 74.9 PFF grade on 895 snaps, playing the run well and also contributing 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. The Dolphins wanted to keep Wilkins, but, given their financial situation, franchise tagging him was not realistic, nor was matching the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he ended up getting from the Raiders. The Dolphins also lost Raekwon Davis, though that isn’t as big of a loss, as he finished last season with a 58.8 PFF grade on 499 snaps. 

Unlike on the edge, the Dolphins did a pretty poor job of replacing the players they lost, with veteran free agent additions Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones, Teair Tart, and Jonathan Harris all being underwhelming options. Those four will all compete for rotational roles, along with holdover Da’Shawn Hand, who excelled in limited action last season and who could see an increase on the 199 snaps he played in 2023. Giving Hand more playing time is probably their best option because he’s shown a lot of promise in his career, but he’s also never exceeded 455 snaps played in six seasons in the league, averaging 202 snaps played per season, while missing 54 games total over that span due to injury, so he’s not the most reliable option and his impressive play in limited action might not translate to a larger role.

Of the newcomers, Teair Tart probably is the best. The 2020 undrafted free agent has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, but he at least showed some potential with a 73.1 PFF grade on 520 snaps in 2022, playing the run well and also contributing a 8.5% pressure rate. He regressed to a 54.0 PFF grade on 378 snaps in 2023 and was cut by the Titans mid-season, before landing with the Texans to finish the season, but unlike the rest of the Dolphins’ free agent acquisitions, Tart at least has had one good season in his career. That doesn’t mean he’ll have another one in 2024, but by default he’s better than the alternatives.

Neville Gallimore was a 3rd round pick by the Cowboys in 2020, but never lived up to his potential, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons on an average of 318 snaps, including a 57.8 PFF grade on 288 snaps in 2023. Benito Jones was an undrafted free agent in 2020, barely played early in his career, and then finished with PFF grades of 53.3 and 37.4 on snap counts of 309 and 566 respectively over the past two seasons. Jonathan Harris went undrafted in 2019, played just 361 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league, before struggling with a 52.0 PFF grade in by far the biggest snap count of his career in 2023, playing 529 snaps. All three figure to struggle if forced to play a significant role, which at least one of them likely will, and Teair Tart could also struggle if he doesn’t bounce back to his 2022 form.

The Dolphins at least still have Zach Sieler, who will be their top interior defender with Wilkins gone. A 7th round pick in 2018, Sieler took a couple years to develop, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 69.3, 84.9, 74.7, and 68.1 on snap counts of 532, 518, 874, and 857 respectively over the past four seasons, playing the run well and also totaling 19 sacks, 29 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate over that time period. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another above average season as an every down player from him in 2024. He elevates a position group that is in pretty rough shape aside from him.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Dolphins also let go of linebacker Jerome Baker this off-season, ahead of a 11.133 million dollar salary owed in 2024. He probably wasn’t quite worth that salary, but he had a 66.6 PFF grade across 713 snaps in 13 games last season, so he’s not a small loss. To replace him, the Dolphins signed a couple options, Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker, who come over on contracts worth 26.25 million over 3 years and 1.3775 million over 1 year respectively. Brooks was a first round pick by the Seahawks in 2020 and has averaged 979 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league and would be an underwhelming replacement for Baker.

Walker has more upside, having finished with PFF grades of 69.1, 82.7, and 71.1 over the past three seasons, but he’s also missed 23 games over those three seasons, while playing an average of just 425 snaps per season. Walker is only going into his age 29 season and has finished above 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent problem for him throughout his career, costing him 30 games total in seven seasons in the league, while costing him at least one game in all but two seasons. If he can stay healthy, he should be a solid starter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

It’s possible both Brooks and Walker have roles in this linebacking corps, but they’ll have to compete for roles in a group that, while it lacks a high level linebacker, still has pretty good depth even without Jerome Baker. David Long had a 68.9 PFF grade on 823 snaps last season, after PFF grades of 67.4 and 76.2 on snap counts of 740 and 829 over the two seasons prior to last season. He has issues in coverage and should probably see a smaller snap count this season because of that, but he is a great run defender and should at least have a base package role. 

The Dolphins also have Duke Riley, who had a 72.5 PFF grade on 394 snaps last season, though he’s never been that good before in a season and has finished below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, while averaging 317 snaps per season and maxing out at 571 snaps in a season. Riley is also now going into his age 30 season. He’s good depth, but could wind up as the odd man out in a deeper linebacking corps than a year ago. All four of their linebackers have their issues, Brooks having struggled throughout his career, Long struggling in coverage, Walker being injury prone, and Duke Riley being inconsistent and having never played an every down role, but the Dolphins at least have options in this position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Dolphins also lost some key players in the secondary. At safety, Brandon Jones (76.8 PFF grade on 464 snaps) and DeShon Elliott (72.6 PFF grade on 926 snaps) weren’t retained this off-season. The Dolphins signed Jordan Poyer to a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal to be the starter opposite holdover Jevon Holland and Poyer has been a consistent above average safety for years, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons and 70 on PFF on five straight seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and could decline. Even if Poyer doesn’t decline, the Bills lack depth behind him and Holland, with their top reserve options being Elijah Campbell, who has played just 207 snaps in six seasons in the league, and 6th round rookie Patrick McMorris, who would almost definitely struggle if forced into a big role in year one.

The Dolphins’ lack of safety depth could become a big problem, as not only is Poyer getting up there in age, but he’s also missed 6 games over the past three seasons, while Holland has also missed 6 games in three seasons in the league. Best case scenario, Poyer doesn’t regress and both stay healthy, in which case they’d be one of the better safety duos in the league, with Holland, who is only in his age 24 season, having received PFF grades of 84.7, 65.5, and 90.4 since going in the 2nd round in 2021. More likely, Poyer regresses somewhat and at least one of them misses time with injury and exposes their lack of depth. Even if Poyer regresses, he and Holland should still be a good safety duo, with Holland being one of the top safeties in the league, but their lack of depth is a concern.

At cornerback, the Dolphins let go of veteran Xavien Howard, who was owed 18.5 million in what would have been his age 31 season in 2024, as well as Eli Apple, but both struggled with PFF grades of 55.1 and 55.3 respectively on snap counts of 743 and 551 last season, so they won’t really be missed much, especially since the Dolphins made a great signing bringing in Kendall Fuller on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Fuller will start alongside Jalen Ramsey, with Kader Kohou on the slot, and the Dolphins also have 2023 2nd round pick Cam Smith waiting in the wings as good depth, after flashing potential as a rookie, albeit on just 22 defensive snaps.

Fuller should prove to be a bargain at the price the Dolphins got him at, as he’s surpassed 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons, including five seasons over 70, three of which have come in the past three seasons, when he has made 48 of a possible 51 starts and finished with PFF grades of 81.5, 76.6, and 83.1 respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue playing at least at an above average level and, if he plays like he has the past three seasons, he should be a significant upgrade, at a cheaper price, over the departed Xavien Howard, who had struggled through injuries in recent years.

The Dolphins also should get more out of Jalen Ramsey this season, after he was limited to 585 snaps in 10 games last season and probably wasn’t fully healthy even when he did play, finishing with a 66.4 PFF grade, his worst in eight seasons in the league. Ramsey is going into his age 30 season and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best years were behind him at this point, but even if he does decline, he’s starting from a high base point, having finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons prior to last season, including three seasons above 80, most recently a 84.5 grade in 2021 and a 86.4 grade in 2022. 

Even with Ramsey’s age being a minor concern, I would expect the Dolphins to get more out of him in 2024 than they did in 2023. Meanwhile, slot cornerback Kader Kohou has received PFF grades of 69.8 and 64.5 on snap counts of 895 and 937 respectively in two seasons in the league, despite going undrafted in 2022, and he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024. The Dolphins’ secondary looks like a well above average group, with their only real concern being their lack of depth at safety, behind a couple players who could be one of the top safety duos in the league when healthy, but who also have consistently missed time with injury in recent years.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Dolphins’ championship window is narrowing as it becomes increasingly harder for them to fit all of their talent under the cap, but this team was better than their 11-6 record last season in terms of DVOA, even with all of the injuries they had down the stretch last season, and, while they lost some talented players this off-season, they overall did a pretty good job of replacing them with cheaper alternatives. They’ll still probably need quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to take a step forward to be considered true contenders, especially in the loaded AFC, but Tagovailoa is young enough that that’s a possibility. Ultimately, I still have them outside of the top teams in the AFC, but this is still a talented team overall. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Dolphins after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC East

Houston Texans 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

Going into last off-season, the Texans looked like they had the worst long-term outlook in the NFL. They had gone just 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons combined and, thanks to only having one first round pick and two top-50 picks from 2018-2021, they didn’t have a pipeline of young talent that made their future look significantly brighter than their present. Given that, it’s remarkable how the Texans have turned things around so quickly, finishing the 2023 season with a 10-7 record and a playoff victory and, now going into 2024, they look like one of the most promising young teams in the league.

The biggest reason for their turnaround was the selection of franchise quarterback CJ Stroud with the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, their reward for yet another terrible season in 2022 and the only real bright spot for their future rebuild. Stroud ended up having more help than it looked like he would going into the season, which I’ll get into later, but it’s not an exaggeration to say that he carried this team out of last place and into the playoffs, completing 63.9% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while posting a 82.8 PFF grade and going 9-6 as a starter, with two games missed due to injury. 

Stroud’s play was remarkable before even including the fact that he was a rookie, but when that’s taken into account, Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons of all-time for a quarterback. Development isn’t always linear and it’s possible Stroud isn’t quite as good again in 2024, but he also could take another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he seems destined to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league for years to come and a potential future MVP. Simply by nailing their quarterback decision, the Texans have completely turned their fortunes around and have set themselves up for future success for years to come.

In Stroud’s absence last season, backups Davis Mills and Case Keenum each made a start and were obvious downgrades, combining to complete 56.5% of their passes for an average of 5.04 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on the season. Both are still on the roster now, but with Stroud now established as a franchise quarterback, the Texans probably don’t need to keep three quarterbacks on their roster like they did for Stroud’s rookie year, so it’s very likely one of those two will end up getting the boot before the start of the season.

Mills was a 3rd round pick by the Texans in 2021 and struggled in two years as a starter on a talentless team, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, while posting PFF grades of 58.5 and 61.9 respectively and going just 5-19-1 in his 25 starts. However, he’s still young, going into his age 26 season, and could be a solid long-term backup for Stroud. Keenum, meanwhile, has made 66 starts in 12 seasons in the league and has a decent 84.6 QB rating in his career, but he’s now going into his age 36 season and could be at the end of his rope as an NFL player. Assuming one of the two gets cut this off-season, Keenum seems like the obvious choice, especially since the Texans can save 3 million by doing so. With an elite starter and a good backup situation, the Texans have a very enviable quarterback room.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Stroud ended up having more help last season than it appeared he would going into the season and the Texans’ receiving corps is the best example of that. Going into last season, the Texans didn’t have a single wide receiver who had exceeded 500 receiving yards in the previous season, but 3rd year player Nico Collins broke out with Stroud under center, while 3rd round rookie Tank Dell also contributed in a big way. 

Collins had shown promise before, with the 2021 3rd round pick averaging 1.68 yards per route run in limited action in 2022 despite being on a bad offense, but no one could have expected Collins to have the 2023 season he did, finishing with a 80/1297/8 slash line and 3.10 yards per route run (2nd in the league among wide receivers) in 15 games. Dell, meanwhile, entered last season with some promise, but also exceeded all expectations with a 47/709/1 slash line and 2.22 yards per route run in 11 games. Collins and Dell are still young, both in their age 25 season, and both missed time with injury last season, so we could see even more out of them in 2024. Even if they disappoint a little by last year’s standards, as still relatively unproven players, both should remain very useful passing game options for Stroud.

The Texans also took advantage of having a young franchise quarterback on a cheap rookie contract by trading away a 2025 2nd round pick to the Bills to acquire veteran Stefon Diggs, who they will pay 22.52 million this season, giving them another talented wide receiver and arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. Diggs had his 6th straight 1000+ yard season last year, with a 107/1183/8 slash line, but there was a reason he was available this off-season, as last season was arguably his worst of those 6 seasons, with his yards per route run average dipping to 1.99 and his yards per target dipping to 7.39, down from 2.23 and 8.72 over the past five seasons combined. 

Diggs also was especially disappointing down the stretch in 2023, managing just a 47/422/1 slash line in his final 10 games including playoffs with a 1.30 yards per route run average, and he now heads into his age 31 season, which is a very common time for elite wide receivers to decline significantly. Given that, he was a risky acquisition who could disappoint, but given the position the Texans are in with a limited window in which their franchise quarterback is very underpaid, it’s understandable why the Texans made that move. 

It also wouldn’t be hard for Diggs to be an upgrade over Robert Woods, who had a 40/426/1 slash line as the third receiver last season and averaged just 1.02 yards per route run. Having three great wide receiver options for Stroud to throw to could decrease the overall production for all three of them, with only so many targets to go around, but this has a great chance to be the best wide receiver trio in the league.

The Texans still have Woods and Noah Brown, who played well as an injury replacement last season and who is an excellent #4 wide receiver, and they still have tight end Dalton Schultz, who was also a useful weapon for them in 2023. Brown finished last season with a 33/567/2 slash line on just 55 targets and a 1.94 yards per route run average, which is a big step forward for a player who had previously averaged 1.21 yards per route run in six seasons in the league. 

Even if Woods regresses in 2024, he should still be one of the best #4 wide receivers in the league and the Texans are unlikely to need much out of him, barring significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Woods, meanwhile, is likely to be cut before the season starts to save 5 million. He was a high level wide receiver in his prime, averaging 1.86 yards per route run from 2016-2021, with two seasons over 1,000 yards, but he’s fallen to just 1.08 yards per route run over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 32 season. If he’s kept on the roster, it’ll be as a reserve and veteran leader, likely after taking a pay cut.

The Texans also still have John Metchie, who didn’t show much in his first season of action in 2023, with a 16/158/0 slash line and a 0.92 yards per route run average, but he’s a former 2022 2nd round pick who was in his first season back from cancer treatment in 2023, so he could easily still have untapped upside, now another year healthier. He also won’t have much of a role in 2024, but he’s great insurance to have as a #5 or #6 wide receiver. Schultz, meanwhile, had a 59/635/5 slash line with a 1.47 yards per route run average last season, in his first season in Houston after signing a 1-year, 6.25 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season. 

Extended on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal this off-season, Schultz will still remain a useful part of this receiving corps, even with Diggs being added, though his target share will probably come down at least a little bit. Prior to joining the Texans, Schultz was franchise tagged by the Cowboys after a 2021 season in which he had a 78/808/8 slash line and a 1.47 yards per route run average, a big jump from a 63/615/4 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run average the previous year. His production fell to 57/577/5 and 1.38 yards per route run on the franchise tag in 2022, which led to him settling for a one-year deal in Houston, but a knee injury cost him two games during that 2022 season and he wasn’t really healthy until week 7, from which point he had 1.56 yards per route run and a 46/497/5 slash line in 11 games, a 71/768/8 pace over 17 games, so it’s not a surprise he was able to bounce back in a healthier season in 2023.

Schultz will probably continue being backed up by Brevin Jordan and Teagan Quitoriano, though the Texans also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Cade Stover, who will also compete for a role. Jordan, a 2021 5th round pick, impressed in limited action last season with a 1.59 yards per route run average, while holding up as a blocker and playing 283 snaps total. That was a big step up from his first two seasons in the league, when he averaged just 1.06 yards per route run, but getting a new quarterback definitely helped him and he seemed to take a step forward himself, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue being a useful #2 tight end. 

Quitoriano, meanwhile, was mostly used as a blocker last season and played just 158 snaps total. A 2022 5th round pick, his career 0.98 yards per route run average isn’t terrible, but it came in very limited action and he’s a pretty mediocre blocker, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the rookie Stover at least beat him out for the #3 tight end job. This is a deep tight end group in arguably the best overall receiving corps in the league, led by a talented trio of wide receivers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs and a solid pass catching tight end in Dalton Schultz.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Texans also acquired running back Joe Mixon in a trade with the Bengals this off-season, giving up a 7th round pick and re-signing Mixon to a new 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal. Unlike the Diggs trade, that move isn’t a good use of resources, even for a team with financial flexibility as a result of having a cheap quarterback. Mixon has been a feature back for the Bengals for most of his career, but he hasn’t been that effective in the past few seasons, averaging just 3.99 YPC on 1,156 carries since 2019, and now he heads into his age 28 season with 1,854 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to start declining. His new contract makes him the 6th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and he’s not worth that much. 

Mixon will replace Devin Singletary, who averaged 4.16 YPC with 4 touchdowns on 216 carries last season and a 30/193/0 slash line with 0.65 yards per route run as a pass catcher, before signing with the Giants on a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Mixon is a better pass catcher, with a career 1.21 yards per route run average and an average 50/375/2 slash line per 17 games in his career, but the Texans still would have been better off just re-signing Singletary to a cheaper deal. 

Dameon Pierce remains as the #2 back. A 4th round pick in 2022, Pierce showed promise as a rookie, rushing for 939 yards and 4 touchdowns on 220 carries (4.27 YPC) in 13 games on an otherwise mediocre offense, but he struggled in his second season in the league on a much better offense and lost his starting job to Devin Singletary, leading to him finishing the season with just 416 yards and 2 touchdowns on 145 carries (2.87 YPC) in 14 games. Pierce has bounce back potential in 2024, but he’ll be the clear #2 back to Mixon and he’ll probably be exclusively an early down back, having averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in his two seasons in the league. Neither he nor Mixon give me a lot of confidence that this will be an efficient running game.

The Texans’ depth is lacking behind Mixon and Pierce too. Dare Ogunbowale is currently penciled in as the #3 back, but he has just 136 carries in seven seasons in the league, with a 3.36 YPC average, and now heads into his age 30 season. He could be pushed for the #3 job and a roster spot by 6th round rookie Jahwar Jordan, who is also underwhelming depth, even if he has more upside than Ogunbowale. This is an underwhelming group overall, despite the move to acquire Mixon.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Texans’ biggest weakness on offense last season was their offensive line, which entered the season as a position of concern and only got worse from there as injuries struck. The Texans were expecting to start left tackle Laremy Tunsil, left guard Kenyon Green, center Juice Scruggs, right guard Shaq Mason, and right tackle Tytus Howard last season, but that didn’t go according to plan at all. Howard and Scruggs didn’t make a single start in their expected spot, missing 10 games each and only seeing action at left guard, where Green missed the whole season with injury. Tunsil also missed three games, leaving Mason as their only starter to make all 17 starts. 

At center, Jarrett Patterson (7 starts) and Michael Dieter (10 starts) both saw starts, Patterson first and then Dieter after Patterson suffered a season ending injury, and both were underwhelming, with PFF grades of 60.4 and 57.1 respectively. Howard and Scruggs struggled at left guard, with PFF grades of 46.8 and 51.5 respectively, as did Kendrick Green (3 starts) who had a 58.9 PFF grade before suffering an injury of his own. At tackle, George Fant (13 starts) was the primary starter on the right side and wasn’t bad (63.5 PFF grade), while Charlie Heck and Josh Jones struggled mightily in limited action as injury reserves behind Tunsil and Fant, finishing with PFF grades of 48.3 and 49.1 respectively. Tunsil and Mason at least were above average starters, with PFF grades of 73.4 and 66.5 respectively, but they couldn’t save a unit that finished below average on PFF both in pass blocking and run blocking grade.

They should be healthier this season and better by default, but there is still reason to be concerned for this offensive line, which is still unsettled in several spots. George Fant is gone and was replaced by second round pick Blake Fisher. Fisher could start at right tackle, in which case Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs would likely start at left guard and center respectively, with Kenyon Green and Jarrett Patterson on the bench. Tytus Howard could start at right tackle, in which case Fisher would be a reserve and then either Kenyon Green would start at left guard, or Juice Scruggs, with Jarrett Patterson at center. The Texans essentially have five offensive linemen competing for three starting spots and all have concerns.

Patterson is most likely of the five to be a reserve. He wasn’t bad in limited action last season, but he wasn’t good either and the 2023 6th round pick still profiles as a reserve long-term. Kenyon Green was a first round pick in 2022, but his career has gone about as disastrously as possible through two seasons, as he struggled mightily with a 37.7 PFF grade on 823 snaps as a rookie, before missing all of last season with injury, so he’s not guaranteed a starting role. Scruggs is probably a heavy favorite for a starting role somewhere, as the 2023 2nd round pick has the upside to be better in year two, especially if he’s healthier. 

Howard will also likely start somewhere, despite struggling last season. A 1st round pick in 2019, Howard has been inconsistent in his career, missing 22 games with injury and finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, but he’s been better at right tackle than guard, most recently receiving a career best 67.9 PFF grade in 2022. Because Howard’s best spot is at right tackle, the Texans’ best offensive line probably has him there with Green and Scruggs at left guard and center respectively, but that would leave the rookie Fisher on the bench in favor of Green, who has been a massive bust to this point in his career. Expect the Texans to try multiple offensive line combinations throughout the season.

Tunsil and Mason are locked into starting roles at left tackle and right guard respectively and are the bright spots on this offensive line, though it’s worth noting they’re heading into their age 30 season and age 31 seasons respectively and could be on the decline. Mason seems to have already started to decline, as the 2015 4th round pick finished above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons from 2016-2021, with five seasons over 80, before falling to 68.9 and 66.5 over the past two seasons. 

Mason could continue declining further and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and could remain at least a solid starter for another season. Tunsil, meanwhile, has shown no signs of decline thus far and, even if he starts to do so in 2024, he should remain an above average left tackle, having finished above 70 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, including a career best 80.0 as recently as 2022. That 2022 season was also the only one of Tunsil’s career in which he didn’t miss time with injury and he’s missed 23 games total in eight seasons in the league, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him miss at least a little bit more time in 2024.

Along with whichever two offensive linemen don’t win starting spots at left guard, center, and right tackle, the Texans also bring back Kendrick Green and Charlie Heck as reserves. Green was a 3rd round pick by the Steelers in 2021 and started 15 games at center as a rookie, but struggled with a 52.4 PFF grade and subsequently was a healthy inactive for all 17 games in 2022, before being traded to the Texans as part of final cuts last off-season. Green saw action at guard in Houston in 2023 and, though his struggles in that limited action make him not a legitimate starting candidate, his versatility probably will keep him on the roster as a reserve. 

Heck, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020 (21 starts), but, with his rookie deal expired, he was re-signed to a one-year deal that guarantees him 650K this off-season, so he’s probably locked into a roster spot. The Texans’ offensive line should be healthier and better than it was last year by default, but they still have a lot of concerns upfront and this will likely remain a below average unit. If there is any unit that keeps this offense and all of its weapons from their potential, it will be this one.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to getting much more help from his receiving corps than most expected going into last season, CJ Stroud was also supported by a defense that exceeded most’s expectations. One big reason for that was rookie Will Anderson, who the Texans selected 3rd overall one pick after Stroud, trading up a future first round pick to move up and select him. It was a risky move, given that their first round pick could have been a high pick if the Texans continued to struggle like they did in recent years, but Anderson’s performed at a high level for a team that surprisingly ended up with a pick in the 20s. 

Anderson finished his rookie season with a 81.8 PFF grade on 629 snaps, playing well against the run and as a pass rusher, totaling 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate. As Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Anderson was the Defensive Rookie of the Year, giving the Texans impressive young building blocks on both sides of the ball. Like with Stroud, development is not always linear and there’s a chance he’s not as good again in 2024 as he was as a rookie, but he also could take another step forward and, long-term, he seems likely to be one of the best defensive players in the league for years to come.

The Texans also got a breakout year from Jonathan Greenard, a 2020 3rd round pick who had flashed promise in the past, but had struggled with injuries and hadn’t put it all together until last season, when he had a 78.2 PFF grade on 632 snaps in 15 games, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate. Greenard wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Texans did spend big to replace him, signing ex-Viking Danielle Hunter to a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal. Hunter is older than Greenard, going into his age 30 season, and could start to decline soon, but he’s also much more consistently proven than Greenard and, even if he does decline a little bit in 2024, he should be more than an adequate replacement for Greenard.

A 3rd round pick in 2015, Hunter has exceeded 70 on PFF in seven straight healthy seasons, dating back to his second season in the league, including three seasons over 80, while playing 51.7 snaps per game in 105 games. In total, Hunter has 81.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate over those 105 games, including 16.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 2023, when he had a 78.0 PFF grade on a career high 1,004 snaps. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2024, he should remain at least an above average edge defender opposite Will Anderson, with Anderson and Hunter being one of the best edge defender duos in the league.

The Texans also opted not to bring back veteran Jerry Hughes, who had a 67.7 PFF grade on 474 snaps as a rotational player last season, playing at his best as a pass rusher with a 10.9% pressure rate, but who was also going into his age 36 season in 2024, which is why he wasn’t brought back. Instead, the Texans will give a bigger role to Derek Barnett, a mid-season acquisition who excelled after being cut mid-season by the Eagles, with a 90.5 PFF grade on 220 snaps in 6 games in Houston, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 2.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate.

Barnett had never played at close to that level before, never surpassing 70 on PFF for a season, with a career 10.0% pressure rate, so he’s highly unlikely to continue playing at the level he played at in a limited sample size down the stretch last season, but he is a former 2017 first round pick who is only going into his age 28 season, so the talent is there and it wouldn’t surprise me if he had the best full season of his career in 2024 in a rotational reserve role behind Anderson and Hunter. The Texans could also give a bigger reserve role to 2023 4th round pick Dylan Horton, though he was underwhelming with a 55.9 PFF grade on 175 snaps and a 5.2% pressure rate as a rookie. Still, he has the upside to at least be useful in a deep rotational reserve role, behind a talented trio of edge defenders. This is a strong position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Texans also signed a pair of hybrid players in Denico Autry and Mario Edwards who could also see action on the edge this season, but primarily they will play inside and replace free agent departures Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who had solid seasons in 2023 with PFF grades of 64.2 and 62.7 respectively on snap counts of 596 and 698 respectively. The Texans also added Folorunso Fatuaski and Tim Settle in free agency this off-season, making this an almost completely revamped position group. Kurt Hinish (465 snaps) and Khalil Davis (420 snaps) return from last season, but will probably both play smaller roles as deep reserves.

Autry is the most accomplished of the bunch, exceeding a 60 grade on PFF in seven straight seasons, including three seasons over 70 and a career best 82.8 on 531 snaps as recently as 2022, while averaging 648 snaps per season and 44.5 snaps per game over that stretch and totaling 53.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate. However, he’s now going into his age 34 season, so his best days are probably behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he dropped off significantly in 2024. 

Autry still had a 61.7 PFF grade on 767 snaps last season, with 11.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate as a pass rusher, but his run defense declined significantly to 52.0, his worst run defense score since 2016. With the Texans, he will probably mostly be a sub package pass rusher, to try to minimize that he’s not as good against the run and to keep him fresh as he ages. Edwards is a similar player, but he doesn’t play as much, with an average of 332 snaps per season over the past seven seasons, with a maximum of 475 snaps in a season. In 114 career games, he has 21.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate, while mostly being a mediocre run stuffer. Now in his age 30 season, he could decline a little in 2024, but he should remain at least a decent situational player. 

Settle also has played sparingly throughout his career, playing an average of 293 snaps per season in his career, with a maximum of 380, since going in the 5th round back in 2018. A mediocre run stopper, Settle is at his best as a pass rusher, but he’s only decent in that aspect, with a 7.0% pressure rate. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024 in a rotational role. Fatusaki is kind of the opposite of Autry and Edwards, a solid run stuffer with just a career 5.8% pressure rate, and he figures to play a significant base package role, similar to the 463 snaps per season he played over the past five seasons. Going into his age 29 season, he should remain similar to the player he has been throughout his career.

Of the two holdovers, Khalil Davis was the better of the two last season, with a 61.7 PFF grade, as opposed to 40.0 for Kurt Hinish. Davis was a 6th round pick in 2020, but had only played 43 snaps in three seasons in the league prior to last season, so his decent 2023 season kind of came out of nowhere. He probably won’t play as much in 2024, but he could still be a decent deep reserve. Hinish, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who also struggled with a 49.5 PFF grade on 435 snaps as a rookie, before struggling last season. He won’t be guaranteed a roster spot in a remade position group this off-season. This is an underwhelming group, but they have some solid role players and they’re deeper than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

One big loss on this defense this off-season is top linebacker Blake Cashman, who came out of nowhere to have a 83.7 PFF grade on 655 snaps in 13 games last season, exceeding expectations arguably more than any player on this whole roster, which is saying something considering how much of a surprise it was that this team had the success they did last season. Cashman was a total one-year wonder and likely would have regressed at least somewhat, but it’s a surprise that the Texans didn’t try to match or outbid the 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal the Vikings signed him to, instead signing Azeez Al-Shahir to an even bigger 3-year, 34 million dollar deal.

Mostly a situational player earlier in his career with the 49ers, Al-Shahir received grades of 61.0, 64.8, and 67.8 on snap counts of 305, 730, and 313 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, only seeing an expanded snap count in 2021 because of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he continued his solid play into an every down role with the Titans on a 1-year deal last season, receiving a 64.7 PFF grade on 1,101 snaps. I would expect that to continue now with the Texans, but he should still be an obvious downgrade on what Cashman gave them last season and it’s weird they paid him more than Cashman got.

Veteran run stuffer Denzel Perryman is also gone, after playing 571 snaps and receiving a 59.9 overall grade from PFF last season, with a 79.8 run defense grade and a 43.2 coverage grade. The rest of this group is basically the same as last year, with Christian Harris (755 snaps) and Henry To’oTo’o (435 snaps) likely to take on bigger roles in Perryman’s absence. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Harris struggled mightily as a rookie with a 28.3 PFF grade on 755 snaps, but he was a lot better in year two, even if being a lot better only meant that he was a capable starter, with a 60.0 PFF grade. Now going into year three, he could regress a little bit, but he could also continue being a capable starter or even take another step forward. 

To’oTo’o, meanwhile, was a 5th round rookie in 2023 and struggled mightily with a 41.7 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two, but he could easily continue struggling and is only locked into a role due to a lack of a better option, with their other options being career special teamer Del’Shawn Phillips (243 defensive snaps in five seasons in the league, veteran Neville Hewitt (26 defensive snaps in the past two seasons), 2022 undrafted free agent Jake Hansen (248 defensive snaps in two seasons in the league), and 6th round rookie Jamal Hill. With the loss of Blake Cashman and, to a lesser extent, Denzel Perryman this off-season, this is now a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Will Anderson, the Texans have another young building block on their defense in cornerback Derek Stingley. The 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Stingley’s career got off to a pretty bad start as he struggled through an injury plagued rookie season, finishing with a 49.1 PFF grade on 599 snaps in 9 games, but he took a big step forward in year two, a big part of the reason for the Texans’ defensive improvement in 2023. Injuries were still a problem for him, as he missed six games, but when he was on the field he showed why the Texans drafted him so high, finishing with a 81.8 PFF grade on the season.

Durability has been an issue for him dating back to his collegiate days and many considered him a reach at 3 because of that, especially with Sauce Gardner still on the board, but Stingley has always had a huge upside and when healthy he should remain one of the best young cornerbacks in the league, still only in his age 23 season. If he can ever consistently put his durability issues behind him, he has the upside to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The rest of this cornerback group is a concern though. Steven Nelson (71.9 PFF grade on 1,087 snaps), Tavierre Thomas (72.2 PFF grade on 352 snaps), Shaq Griffin (66.3 PFF grade on 382 snaps), and Grayland Arnold (71.4 PFF grade on 143 snaps) are all no longer on the roster after playing above average last season and in their place the Texans used a 2nd round pick on Kamari Lassiter and took fliers on former top-10 pick busts Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson, giving them a much shakier cornerback room than the year before.

Okudah was the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but struggled mightily with a 42.5 PFF grade on 460 snaps in 9 games in an injury plagued rookie season, before tearing his achilles and missing all but 48 snaps in 2021. Okudah returned in 2022, but was only better by default, with a 59.4 PFF grade on 789 snaps, leading to him being traded to the Falcons for a late round pick, where he wasn’t any better, with a 50.5 PFF grade on 596 snaps. Still only in his age 25 season, Okudah might still have untapped upside, but is running out of time to even develop into a decent starting caliber cornerback and durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 29 games total in four seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in every season.

Henderson, meanwhile, went 9th in the 2020 NFL Draft, but lasted just over a year with the Jaguars, posting a 57.9 PFF grade on 474 snaps as a rookie and being traded early in his second season in the league to the Panthers for just a mid-round pick. With the Panthers, things didn’t get better and his rookie season is actually the best season of his career thus far, as he finished the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons with PFF grades of 50.7, 52.9, and 45.4 on snap counts of 390, 765, and 407, while missing 18 games total in four seasons in the league. Now in his age 26 season, Henderson does still have some theoretical upside, but like Okudah he is running out of time to develop into even a decent starting caliber player.

Okudah and Henderson were signed to 1-year deals worth just 4.75 million and 2 million respectively, but will likely have to see significant playing time in a thin position group, competing with the rookie Lassiter and veteran slot cornerback Desmond King for playing time. King had a 71.3 PFF grade on 311 snaps in 7 games last season after rejoining the team mid-season, after playing just 1 snap in a disappointing half season with the Steelers. King was with the Texans in 2021 and 2022 and has finished above 70 on PFF in five of seven seasons in the league, including a 73.2 grade on 916 snaps in 2022, but he’s not a realistic candidate to start outside, as he’s primarily a slot cornerback/safety, and he now heads into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline in 2024. Still, he should at least be useful as a versatile reserve/sub package player.

At safety, the Texans return Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward as starters for the second year in a row. A second round pick in 2022, Pitre has been underwhelming through two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 57.1 and 61.6, but he’s made 32 starts already, he was a little better in year two than year one, and he has the upside to make his third season in the league his best yet. Ward, meanwhile, is going into his 11th season in the league and has been an above average starter for most of his career, including four straight seasons over 70 on PFF from 2019-2022, but durability has been a consistent problem for him, causing him to miss 47 games in 10 seasons in the league, with at least 5 games missed in six of those seasons. Now Ward heads into his age 33 season and seemed to start to decline in 2023, finishing with a 68.4 PFF grade on 506 snaps in 10 games in yet another injury plagued season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Ward continued declining in 2024 and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him and he will likely miss more time with injury. 

DeAndre Houston-Carson struggled as the third safety and an injury fill-in when Ward was out last season, receiving a 57.2 PFF grade on 475 snaps. He wasn’t brought back this off-season, but the Texans don’t really have a better option. Veteran reserves MJ Stewart and Eric Murray remain, but Stewart hasn’t played more than 328 snaps in a season in six seasons in the league, while Murray has played just 294 snaps over the past two seasons combined, after posting grades of 53.9 and 50.9 on 941 snaps and 759 snaps respectively in 2020 and 2021, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season. The Texans used a 3rd round pick on safety Calen Bullock, who could be a future replacement for Jimmie Ward, but he also could struggle if forced into a significant role as a rookie. With less depth at cornerback and Jimmie Ward another year older, the Texans’ secondary probably won’t be as good as it was a year ago, but they’re not a bad group.

Grade: B

Conclusion

With a highly talented young quarterback on a cheap rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud, the Texans were aggressive this off-season in adding to this roster, to try to go all in and maximize their window of opportunity. However, their most notable move, the trade for Stefon Diggs, looks like an overrated move and this team still has significant concerns with their running game, offensive line, and defense, particularly in the secondary and in the linebacking corps. This should still be a playoff team in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect them to make the leap to a true Super Bowl contender like many are expecting from this team. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Texans after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC South