San Francisco 49ers 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most talented team in the league overall last season and arguably have been for the past two seasons. They had PFF’s top overall team grade and had nine players who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80, all of whom remain on the team for 2024, though there is one potential exception that I will get to later. The 49ers have been able to keep all of this talent under the cap by being aggressive in how they structure their contracts, using big signing bonuses to borrow future cap space, and by having the lowest paid quarterback in the league in Brock Purdy, who has been a revelation for them over the past two seasons, despite being the last pick in the draft in 2022.

The 49ers have seven players who have cap hits higher than 10 million in 2024, a list that is almost identical to the list of nine players who played more than 700 snaps and had PFF grades above 80, with the only two players from that list of nine who don’t have a cap hit above 10 million being the cheap Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey, who just signed a new extension to lower his cap hit for 2024. The 49ers have yet to win it all, but they could have easily at least made the Super Bowl in 2022 if Purdy didn’t get hurt in the NFC Championship and last year they took the Chiefs to overtime in the Super Bowl and came within a couple plays of winning the game in regulation. With their entire core from a year ago returning for 2024, the 49ers should be considered one of the top teams in the league and the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again.

As I mentioned, none of this would be possible without Brock Purdy exceeding expectations the way he has, completing 69.4% of his passes for an average of 9.64 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 21 career regular season starts, while going 17-4 in those games. Purdy has a lot of help around him, both in terms of talented supporting players and a great scheme coached by Kyle Shanahan, but Purdy has played well in his own right, posting a 76.6 PFF grade as a rookie and then jumping to a 88.4 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2023, 4th in the NFL among quarterbacks. Still only in his age 25 season, Purdy could keep improving and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Purdy does only have one more year left before he’s eligible for a massive pay raise on a long-term extension, which will make it harder for the 49ers to keep talent around him, especially with how aggressive they have been in borrowing future cap space, already about 26 million over the 2025 cap, but Purdy seems like he could develop into the kind of quarterback who could lead this team at least on deep playoff runs even if his supporting cast isn’t quite as good in the future. The 2024 season will probably be the 49ers’ best chance to win a Super Bowl for a while, given Purdy’s contract status and the long-term financial situation of this team, but they should remain competitive for years to come with Purdy under center, Shanahan calling plays, and numerous talented players still in their primes that the 49ers will prioritize keeping long-term.

Purdy will be backed up by veteran journeyman Josh Dobbs, who the 49ers signed this off-season. Calling him a journeyman is putting it lightly, as the 2017 4th round pick is already on his 8th team, including his 6th team since the start of the 2022 season, but he hasn’t been bad when he’s had to play over the past two seasons, completing 62.3% of his passes for an average of 5.93 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 14 starts. If Purdy suffered a significant injury that kept him out for a long-time, the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances would go way down, but Dobbs could hold down the fort if needed for a few games without this team completely tanking. With one of the better quarterbacks in the league and a capable backup, the 49ers are in good shape at the most important position in the game.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned earlier, there is one key player from a year ago who could potentially not be on the roster for 2024 and that’s wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who is owed 14.124 million in the final year of his rookie deal and wants to be traded if the 49ers don’t give him what he wants on a long-term extension. The 49ers would probably be able to lower Aiyuk’s cap hit for 2024 if they extended him, even on a deal that made him one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league, but that would give them another big contract to fit under the cap long-term and the 49ers at the very least seem to want to get the best deal possible in re-signing Aiyuk, given the state of their long-term cap situation and that Brock Purdy will be due a huge extension in a year.

A first round pick in 2020, Aiyuk has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, going from a 60/748/5 slash line with 1.73 yards per route run as a rookie, to a 56/816/5 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run in his second season in the league, to a 78/1015/8 slash line with 1.91 yards per route run in his third season in the league, to a 75/1342/7 slash line with 3.01 yards per route run last season, and he’s still only in his age 26 season and should remain in his prime for several years.

The 49ers do have another talented wide receiver in Deebo Samuel, who has averaged 2.29 yards per route run in his career, including a 60/892/7 slash line and 2.32 yards per route run in 2023, and they used their first round pick in this year’s draft on another talented wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, so they may view Aiyuk as expendable. In fact, they probably wouldn’t have drafted Pearsall if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the price, as the 49ers had more pressing needs they could have addressed. However, Pearsall is raw, Samuel is often injured, missing time in all five seasons in the league, with 17 games missed total, and the 49ers are in win now mode, so the best case scenario for them would be to keep Aiyuk at his current salary and then franchise tag and trade him next off-season before the draft, moving forward with Samuel and Pearsall long-term and avoiding another huge long-term financial commitment.

Aiyuk seems pretty committed to holding out until he gets his long-term extension, but he is still leaving a lot of money on the table if he sits out the 2024 season and sitting out the whole year would prevent him from being a free agent next off-season, so the 49ers do hold the leverage in this standoff. The most likely scenario is Aiyuk returning for 2024, with or without an extension, to play alongside Samuel and Pearsall, which would probably be the most talented wide receiver trio in the league, but this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

Jauan Jennings was the #3 receiver last season and could remain in that role this season if Aiyuk is traded or if Pearsall is too raw to make a significant impact in year one. Jennings has only averaged 1.31 yards per route run in his career, with slash lines of 24/282/5, 35/416/1, and 19/265/1 over the past three seasons, but the 49ers still kept him on a 2-year, 15.39 million dollar deal this off-season, so they clearly value him, even with all of the other wide receiver talent the 49ers have on this roster. That contract is another sign that the 49ers don’t plan on keeping Aiyik long-term, as that would be a lot of money to pay a #4 receiver.

The 49ers also have a dominant tight end in George Kittle, who plays at a high level as a receiver and a blocker. He has finished above 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, averaging 2.46 yards per route run and a 85/1180/7 slash line per 17 games, including 2.22 yards per route run and a 65/1020/6 slash line on just 90 targets last season. Kittle is going into his age 31 season and has missed 16 games in the past five seasons, which are both concerns, but the 49ers have enough talent that they can survive him being out for a few games, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless.

Charlie Woerner was their #2 tight end last season, playing 313 snaps, but he left this off-season and was replaced by veteran free agent Logan Thomas. Thomas is a decent pass catcher, with 184 catches and a 1.03 yards per route run average in 54 games over the past four seasons, and should be an upgrade over Woerner in that aspect, as Woerner has 11 catches and a 0.55 yards per route run average in four seasons in the league. However, Woerner is a much better run blocker, which is mostly what the 49ers need their #2 tight end for, so Thomas is probably a downgrade overall from Woerner, especially since he’s now going into his age 33 season. The 49ers also have 2023 3rd round pick Cameron Latu as a backup tight end option, but he missed his entire rookie season with injury and is a complete unknown at this point. This is the best receiving corps in the league, assuming Brandon Aiyuk is on the team this season.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Feature back Christian McCaffrey is also heavily involved in the passing game, with a 67/564/7 slash line and a 1.35 yards per route run average, but that was actually his lowest yards per route run average and his lowest yardage total for a healthy season in his career. McCaffrey has a career 1.71 yards per route run average and had slash lines of 80/651/5, 108/874/6, 116/1005/4, and 85/741/5 in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 respectively, but his 2024 receiving production will probably be around where it was in 2023 again, as there are just so many receiving options on this 49ers offense that someone is going to end up with less than they would have elsewhere.

Limiting McCaffrey’s passing game usage also helps them keep him fresh to carry the load as a runner and he excelled with 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns on 272 carries last season (5.36 YPC), ranking 1st in the NFL in rushing yardage, 4th in rushing touchdowns, and 1st in yards per carry among eligible running backs. In seven seasons in the league, McCaffrey has averaged 4.77 YPC with 52 touchdowns on 1,297 carries, even though he spent most of the early part of his career on bad offenses in Carolina, and he’s even more dangerous now on a 49ers offense that has so many other threats to worry about. He did miss 23 games due to injury from 2020-2021, but has otherwise not missed a game in his career, so it’s not fair to call him an injury prone player. In his age 28 season with 339 career touches, a potential decline for McCaffrey is a concern, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he is in the past, he should still be one of the best running backs in the league.

McCaffrey rarely comes off the field, playing 812 snaps last season (4th in the NFL among running backs), despite sitting out a meaningless week 18 game, so depth isn’t needed that much behind him, but when McCaffrey does need a breather or if he misses time with injury, the 49ers would likely turn either to incumbent backup Elijah Mitchell or to 4th round rookie Isaac Guerendo. Mitchell saw 81 touches as the backup last season, 16 of which came in that meaningless week 18 game that McCaffrey didn’t play.

Mitchell has an impressive 4.66 YPC average on 327 carries in three seasons in the league, 207 of which came when he was the lead back in 2021 prior to McCaffrey’s arrival, but he’s very injury prone, missing at least six games in every season, with 24 total games missed in three seasons in the league, and he’s not much of a pass catcher, with just 0.70 yards per route run in his career. Guerendo will probably be behind him on the depth chart, but if Mitchell misses time, Guerendo would likely become the #2 back and, if McCaffrey misses time, Guerendo, who caught 22 passes in his final collegiate season, would probably be the passing down complement to Mitchell. Led by arguably the best running back in the league, with capable depth behind him, the 49ers are in great shape at the running back position.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers probably would not have drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the cost. Some viewed that pick as a luxury pick that the 49ers could afford to make even if they were keeping Aiyuk, but, as talented as the 49ers’ roster is, they did have more pressing needs to address. One of those was the offensive line, which played pretty well last season and returns all five starters from a year ago, but three of those five starters are on the wrong side of 30, so an infusion of young talent was needed.

Left tackle Trent Williams was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 89.9 PFF grade in 15 starts, but he’s going into his age 36 season and could decline significantly soon, perhaps this season. Williams has finished above 70 on PFF in 13 straight seasons, a streak starting with his second season in the league in 2011, and he’s finished above 80 in all but one of those seasons, with five seasons above 90, including three straight as recently as 2020-2022, so even if he does decline significantly this season, he should remain at least an above average starter, but a significant decline from him would have a noticeable negative effect on the rest of this offense.

Center Jake Brendel is going into his age 32 season. The 2016 6th round pick only made three starts in his first six seasons in the league prior to becoming a full-time starter for the first time in 2022, but he’s made 34 starts over the past two seasons and hasn’t been bad, with PFF grades of 64.9 and 63.9. He doesn’t have much margin for error if he declines though, as he’s only a marginal starter at his best and would likely be a liability if he declined even a little. Right guard Jon Feliciano is also going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.2 PFF grade in 2023, but that was pretty out of character for him, as he’s only finished above 70 on PFF in one other season and that came in 2017 when he played just 124 snaps.

Feliciano has also only made 61 starts in nine seasons in the league, while exceeding 7 starts in a season in only twice. Last season was not one of those seasons, so his strong performance came in a pretty limited sample size, as he played just 478 snaps and made just 7 starts, starting the season on the bench and suffering multiple injuries after taking over the starting job. He’s a good fit for the 49ers blocking scheme, but given his age and his history, I would be surprised if he didn’t regress significantly in 2023. He should at least be available for more games this season though, which is a good thing because Spencer Burford, who started when Feliciano was on the bench or injured, struggled mightily with a 50.4 PFF grade across 846 snaps.

Left guard Aaron Banks is much younger, as the 2021 2nd round pick is only going into his age 27 season, but he’s been mediocre in two seasons as a starter, receiving a 62.7 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2022 and a 54.9 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2023. He came into the league with a lot of upside and he’s still relatively young, even if he is older than most 4th year players are, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a step forward in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee. The 49ers don’t have much choice but to start him either way, as their alternatives are very underwhelming.

The aforementioned Spencer Burford is a 2022 6th round pick who has struggled even more over the past two seasons than Banks has and doesn’t have as much upside as Banks. Dominick Puni is a third round rookie who would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time as a rookie. Ben Bartch has made 20 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected by the Jaguars in the 4th round in 2020, but he’s been middling at best and mostly mediocre when forced into action. Chris Hubbard has made 58 starts in 11 seasons in the league and can play both guard and tackle, but he’s also been middling at best and is now going into his age 33 season.

Right tackle Colton McKivitz is the only offensive line starter below 30 who played well for the 49ers last season, as the 2020 5th round pick is only going into his age 28 season and had a solid 65.1 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. He’s only a one-year starter though, playing just 439 snaps and making just five starts in three seasons in the league prior to last season. He could remain a solid starter in 2024, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed somewhat, given his lack of experience.

The 49ers also have a good young swing tackle in Jaylon Moore, a 2021 5th round pick who has made seven starts in three seasons in the league, while receiving PFF grades of 66.3 and 72.9 over the past two seasons. He’s relatively unproven and could struggle in an extended role, but he’s a solid option as far as swing tackles go. Overall, the 49ers’ offensive line looks likely to be worse than a year ago. They bring back all five starters, but four of them could be worse than a year ago, including three who are in their age 32 season or older.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position is another one the 49ers could have addressed early in the draft, after losing Arik Armstead, their biggest off-season loss. Armstead only played 509 snaps in 12 games last season, but he had a 81.9 PFF grade, excelling as an interior pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. He was going into his age 31 season and had a history of injuries, which is why the 49ers released him to save 18.26 million, but he will still be missed. To replace Armstead, the 49ers traded two late round picks for Maliek Collins and the 2 years and 23 million remaining on his contract. He’s younger than Armstead, only going into his age 29 season, but he will almost definitely be a downgrade, even if he doesn’t miss significant time like Armstead did last season.

Collins is an above average pass rusher, with pass rush grades in the 70s on PFF in four of the past five seasons, a stretch in which he has had 25.5 sacks, 53 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate in 119 games, but he also finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of those five seasons, while maxing out with a 65.4 overall grade from PFF. He should remain a similar player in 2024, above average as a pass rusher, below average as a run defender, and middling at best overall.

The 49ers also lost Javon Kinlaw in free agency this off-season, watching him sign with the Jets on a 1-year, 7.25 million dollar deal. He struggled mightily against the run, but was at least a good pass rusher with 3.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate, while his replacement Jordan Elliott, who the 49ers signed to a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal, isn’t good in any aspect of the game, finishing with PFF grades of 55.3, 41.6, 40.4, and 46.5 on snap counts of 307, 464, 703, and 440 in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020. Equally bad as a run defender and a pass rusher, Elliott has just 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 4.6% pressure rate in 66 career games. Elliott is now in his age 27 season, so it’s unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to continue struggling.

The 49ers do at least bring back Javon Hargrave, who had a 73.9 PFF grade across 632 snaps last season, excelling as a pass rusher with 7 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, while struggling somewhat against the run. That’s in line with how he’s played throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all eight seasons in the league, but finishing below 60 in run defense five times. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past five seasons, with 34 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 127 games. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 31 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his decline started in 2024. He should remain at least an above average pass rusher, but he might not be as good as he has been in recent years, while his run defense could get even worse.

The 49ers also bring back Kevin Givens, who played 398 snaps last season, although he’s an underwhelming option even as a reserve, finishing last season with a 56.9 PFF grade, his 5th straight season below 60 on PFF to begin his career, since going undrafted in 2019. Mediocre as a run defender and a pass rusher, Givens has just 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 5.9% pressure rate in 57 career games and should continue struggling in 2024. The 49ers have a great interior pass rush duo of Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins, but both figure to struggle against the run, while their reserve options of Jordan Elliott and Kevin Givens aren’t good in any aspect of the game. With Arik Armstead gone and Javon Hargrave aging, this position group should be significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position is another spot where the 49ers lost a key player this off-season and could have replaced him in the draft, but didn’t, as they lost Chase Young to the Saints on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young only spent half the season with the 49ers, after being acquired from the Commanders at the trade deadline for a third round pick, but he had a solid 68.6 PFF grade across 328 snaps, playing the run decently and adding 2.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 9 games. The 49ers also lost Clelin Ferrell this off-season and he was decent with a 60.7 PFF grade on 471 snaps, while totaling 3.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 17 games.

With no premium draft picks being used on the position, Young and Ferrell will be replaced by free agents Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, neither of whom are likely to be as good as Young was last season. Floyd was an above average edge defender in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons to begin his career, through the 2022 season, but he fell to 56.3 across 576 snaps last season and is now heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He was still a solid pass rusher with 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate last season, but he struggled against the run and missed a bunch of tackles, so he’s not as complete of a player as Chase Young was, even before you take his age into account.

Yetur Gross-Matos is much younger than Floyd, only going into his age 26 season, and he has upside as a 2020 2nd round pick, but he has been underwhelming through four seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.7, 63.8, 51.2, and 65.4 respectively on snap counts of 377, 349, 847, and 465 respectively. He isn’t a bad run defender, but he only has 13 sacks, 18 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 55 career games and, unless he takes a big step forward in 2024, he figures to remain an underwhelming option.

The 49ers do still have Nick Bosa, who had a 92.7 PFF grade across 821 snaps last season. That was the best single season grade of his 5-year career, but he’s far from a one-year wonder, also receiving PFF grades of 86.7, 88.3, and 90.9 on snap counts of 777, 840, and 745 in 2019, 2021, and 2022 respectively, with a lost season due to injury in 2020 in between. He’s also not injury prone, only missing one game due to injury in his other four seasons combined, aside from his season ending injury in 2020.

In total, Bosa has 53.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 68 career games, with 10.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 16.8% pressure rate in 17 games last season and, as good as he is as a pass rusher, he is equally good against the run. Still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Bosa is on the short list of top Defensive Player of the Year candidates, an award he won in 2022. He elevates this position group significantly by himself.

Drake Jackson also figures to play more snaps then he did a year ago, when he suffered a season ending injury after 199 snaps in 8 games, which is why the 49ers went out and acquired Chase Young. Jackson was a second round pick in 2022, but has yet to live up to that, playing just 514 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league, while receiving middling PFF grades of 64.6 and 62.1. He’s a solid run stopper, but only has 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate thus far in his career. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024 though, only going into his age 23 season. Still, this is an overall underwhelming position group outside of Nick Bosa, but Bosa is so good that it would be hard for this group to be bad overall as long as he is healthy.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In addition to Nick Bosa, the 49ers also have a dominant defender in their linebacking corps, as Fred Warner finished last season with a 90.2 PFF grade across 982 snaps. That was the best season of his career, but he also has had PFF grades of 88.6, 75.2, and 83.7 across snap counts of 973, 977, and 1,026 over the three seasons prior to last season, so, even if he isn’t as good as he was last season, he should still remain one of the best linebackers in the league, still very much in his prime in his age 28 season.

Fellow starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw is coming off of a solid season in his own right, with a 69.3 PFF grade on 848 snaps. That’s not out of character for him, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with an 81.2 PFF grade on 850 snaps in 2022. He’s also still in his prime in his age 27 season. Unfortunately, he tore his achilles in the Super Bowl and could miss a big chunk of the 2024 season and/or not be his best self when he returns.

Because of Greenlaw’s injury, the 49ers signed veteran De’Vondre Campbell to a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal in free agency. In his prime, Campbell was one of the best linebackers in the league, receiving PFF grades of 84.7 and 75.6 in 2021 and 2022, but he fell to a 65.3 PFF grade in 2023 and is now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. He should still be an adequate replacement for Greenlaw while he is out or not at his best and, if Greenlaw can return to form at some point in 2024, Campbell is more than qualified to be the third linebacker in base packages.

If Greenlaw misses time, it’s unclear who the third linebacker in base packages would be and all of the 49ers’ options are underwhelming. Veterans Ezekiel Turner and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles are both career special teamers who have played just 194 snaps in six seasons in the league and 468 snaps in five seasons in the league, while 2023 6th round pick Dee Winters struggled mightily on 61 snaps as a rookie.

The 49ers also have 2023 7th round pick Jalen Graham, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who is likely to struggle as a rookie. Fortunately, the third linebacker job is just a part-time role and the 49ers would only need a replacement until Greenlaw returns from injury. With Warner, Greenlaw, and Campbell as their top-3 linebackers, this is an impressive group, even with Greenlaw’s injury and their lack of depth outside of their top-3 taken into account.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The 49ers also got a dominant season out of top cornerback Chavarius Ward, who had an 82.6 PFF grade across 931 snaps in 2023. An undrafted free agent in 2018, Ward spent the first four seasons of his career in Kansas City and was a solid starter, receiving PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons while starting 41 of the 43 games he played across his final three seasons with the Chiefs, but he took off when he joined the 49ers on a 3-year, 40.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, receiving a 83.2 PFF grade across 959 snaps in 2022, before repeating that level of play again in 2023. Ward’s contract, which once looked like an overpay, now looks like a steal, as he’s only the 11th highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Ward should remain a dominant cornerback in 2024 and is unlikely to regress to his pre-2022 form.

Deommodore Lenoir was the #2 cornerback last season and had a pretty solid season, with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps. He’s a one-year wonder, as the 2021 5th round pick had PFF grades of 57.1 and 55.9 across snap counts of 238 and 887 in the first two seasons of his career, so he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner as an above average starter, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will regress this season.

Ambry Thomas (482 snaps) and Isaiah Oliver (503 snaps) also saw roles at cornerback last season and were solid with PFF grades of 71.5 and 67.6 respectively. Oliver is no longer with the team, but Thomas remains and will compete with second round rookie Renardo Green and free agent acquisition Isaac Yiadom for the #3 cornerback job. Green has a high upside long-term, but Thomas and Yiadom could be better options in the short-term.

Both Thomas and Yiadom are one-year wonders though. Thomas was a third round pick in 2021, struggling mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and then playing just 41 snaps in his second season in the league. He’s still only in his age 25 season and has upside, but he still didn’t play that big of a snap count as a part-time player in 2023 and could be overmatched in a bigger role in 2024, so he comes with a lot of downside.

Yiadom, meanwhile, was also a third round pick, back in 2018, but he struggled mightily with PFF grades in the 50s on an average of 467 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and then played just 98 snaps between 2021-2022, before surprisingly breaking out with a 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps with the Saints in 2023. He probably won’t be that good again in 2024, especially if he plays an expanded role, but even if he regresses significantly, he could remain a solid third cornerback. Yiadom, Thomas, and the rookie Green all come with big downsides, but they also have big upsides and, overall, they provide great depth as the 49ers’ 3rd, 4th, and 5th cornerbacks, in some order.

At safety, Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga were the starters to begin last season and both had impressive seasons, with PFF grades of 73.6 and 70.5 respectively. Hufanga suffered a season ending injury down the stretch and was limited to 577 snaps in 10 games on the season, but his replacement, 2023 3rd round pick Ji’Ayir Brown, played at an even higher level in his absence, finishing with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps. Gipson wasn’t re-signed this off-season, so Brown will start opposite Hufanga.

Brown is a projection to a season-long starter role and might not be as good as he was in limited action last season, but, even if he isn’t, he could still be a solid starter and he has the upside to be more than that. Hufanga, meanwhile, was a season-long starter in 2022 and had a 68.8 PFF grade so, assuming he’s over the injury that ended his 2023 season, he should be a solid starter in 2024. Hufanga, 2021 5th round pick, is also still only in his age 25 season and could have the upside for more. Even after losing Tashaun Gipson this off-season, the 49ers still should have a solid safety duo in Ji’Ayir Brown and Talanoa Hufanga.

Depth is a concern though, without Gipson. The 49ers drafted Malik Mustapha in the 4th round this year, but he’s probably too raw to start for an extended period of time in case of an injury to Brown or Hufanga. George Odum would be the veteran option, but he’s mostly been a special teamer in his career and has been middling at best on an average of 177 snaps per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. Perhaps the 49ers could move one of their cornerbacks to safety in case of an injury, as their cornerback room is much deeper. Overall, this is a talented secondary that should be above average.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The 49ers have come very close to winning it all the past two seasons and bring back almost their entire core from the past two seasons. They might not necessarily be the favorites to win it all, but they’re high up on the short list of teams who could win it all. Much is dependent on the Brandon Aiyuk contract/holdout situation, but it seems likely that he will suit up for the 49ers one way or another this season.

Update: Aiyuk has been re-signed long-term. The 49ers still have a concerning situation with Trent Williams wanting his contract redone, but it seems like the 49ers will resolve that sooner rather than later.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

Los Angeles Rams 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

The Rams won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season, but they were never a team built for consistent long-term success, as they mortgaged the future to win the ultimate prize, trading away numerous high draft picks and borrowing significant amounts of future cap space in order to build a team good enough to win it all. The collapse came quicker and harder than most expected though, as they fell to 5-12 the following season, the worst record ever by a defending Super Bowl Champion. Part of it their collapse was the key players they didn’t bring back from the previous season, but they never would have fallen as far as they did without injuries, as they had the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2022 and those injuries disproportionately affected their most important players. Going into 2023, the Rams were likely to be healthier, but there was still a lot of reason for concern with this team.

In an attempt to improve their long-term cap situation, the Rams moved on from even more expensive key players from their Super Bowl team last off-season, leaving behind a seemingly underwhelming roster and the league’s second highest dead cap hit at 79.4 million, about 35.3% of the overall cap. Making matters worse, three players, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, and Matt Stafford, counted for another 28.2% of the cap and all three were on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of significant injuries. That left just 36.5% of the cap for the rest of this roster, which mostly consisted of young players on rookie contracts, most of whom were mid or late round draft picks, as the Rams had picked just twice in the top-50 over the previous six drafts, with no first round picks, as a result of all their aggressive trades for veterans.

However, the Rams exceeded expectations in a big way in 2023, finishing with a 10-7 record, ranking 17th in DVOA, and qualifying for a post-season berth. The Rams might not have had many high draft picks in recent years nor did they have much financial flexibility last off-season, but they have consistently done a good job of finding talent outside of the top-50 picks and that was a big part of the reason for their surprising success in 2023.

The Rams had a lot more financial flexibility this off-season and they had a first round pick for the first time since 2016, but there are reasons to believe the Rams won’t be able to take a step forward in 2024. For one, they were incredibly lucky with injuries a year ago, as they went from one of the most injury plagued teams in the league to one of the least, with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2023. On top of that, that aforementioned aging core of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald got another year older, with the latter opting to hang them up this off-season, after a 10-year Hall of Fame career, which will be a huge loss for their defense.

For the Rams to have a good chance of making it back to the post-season, they will need quarterback Matt Stafford to continue playing at a relatively high level and stay healthy. Stafford’s long-term outlook looked questionable following the 2022 season, when he completed 68.0% of his passes for an average of 6.89 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in just 9 games before going down for the season with injury, but he bounced back to form in 2023, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

Over the past 13 seasons, dating back to his third season in the league in 2011, Stafford has completed 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 338 touchdowns, and 159 interceptions in 193 starts, while finishing above 70 on PFF ten times and finishing above 80 six times. He’s going into his age 36 season now though, so it’s fair to be concerned about his age and question how much longer he can continue playing at this level, especially with injuries costing him time in three of the previous five seasons.

When Stafford was out in 2022, the Rams went just 2-6, but they are at least better prepared for a potential Stafford absence this time around, signing veteran Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency. Garoppolo has been a starter for most of the past six seasons, completing 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.16 YPA, 82 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in 56 starts, and likely would have at least gotten a look as a stopgap starter somewhere this off-season, if not for the fact that he’s suspended for the first two games of the season.

Garoppolo struggled last season away from Kyle Shanahan’s play calling and the 49ers’ talented supporting cast in San Francisco, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.13 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in six starts with the Raiders before being benched, and he’s now going into his age 33 season with a significant injury history, with 32 games missed from 2018-2022, but he’s still at least an above average backup and he’ll play in a very similar scheme with the Rams as the one in which he had success with the 49ers.

The Rams won’t have Garoppolo for the first two games of the season, so if Stafford gets hurt early in the season, they would have to turn to 2023 4th round pick Stetson Bennett, who has never thrown a regular season pass, but Garoppolo will give them a good insurance policy for the rest of the season. Stafford’s age and injury history are concerns, but he could still remain a high level starter for another season and, if he gets hurt, Garoppolo probably won’t be a huge drop off, so, overall, this is an enviable quarterback room.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The mid-to-late round draft pick who made the biggest impact for the Rams in 2023 was Puka Nacua, who had one of the best rookie years ever by a wide receiver, with a 105/1486/6 slash line and a 2.59 yards per route run average, despite only being a 5th round pick. Nacua’s dominant rookie season started when Cooper Kupp missed the first four games of the season with injury, but Nacua outshined Kupp even after Kupp’s return, as Kupp was limited to a 59/737/5 slash line, 61.4 yards per game, and a 1.86 yards per route run average, his worst season since 2020, before he was paired with Stafford. In 2021 and 2022 combined, Kupp averaged 106.1 yards per game and 2.87 yards per route run, making him one of the best wide receivers in the league over that span.

Kupp is now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him, but he has a good chance to remain at least an above average #2 receiver in 2024, even if he continues declining. In his career, he’s averaged a 105/1306/9 slash line per 17 games and a 2.28 yards per route run average, so he would be declining from a pretty high base point. Nacua, meanwhile, will remain the #1 receiver and, while he could regress after such a dominant rookie season, he should still remain a high level player. He and Kupp should be one of the better wide receiver duos in the league this season.

Tutu Atwell was the Rams’ #3 receiver for most of the year, playing 687 snaps total, but he struggled with just a 39/483/3 slash line and a 1.19 yards per route run average and was benched down the stretch for DeMarcus Robinson, who was a lot better. Robinson played 363 of the 396 snaps he played last season in the final 7 games of the Rams’ season, coinciding with a 6-1 record by the Rams, and he had a 23/332/4 slash line in those 7 games, while averaging 1.66 yards per route run. Robinson is a 8-year veteran with only a career 0.96 yards per route run average though and he now heads into his age 30 season. The Rams kept him on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal this off-season, so he figures to remain the #3 receiver, but it’s unlikely over a full season that he will continue playing at the level he played down the stretch last season.

Atwell remains on the roster, likely as the #4 wide receiver, meaning he would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see a significant role. Atwell was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and is still only going into his age 25 season, but he hasn’t shown much in three seasons in the league, totaling 57 catches in 37 games, with a career 1.34 yards per route run average, so he’s best off as a reserve. The Rams also used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Jordan Whittington, although he would likely need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to see any sort of real playing time and it’s very likely he would struggle if that happened.

Tyler Higbee was the Rams’ starting tight end last season, a role he has played in since his second season in the league in 2017, starting all 109 games he has played since. He hasn’t been bad in that role, averaging 1.42 yards per route run and a 49/515/3 slash line per season over that stretch, while mostly being a solid run blocker, but he’s going into his age 31 season in 2024, he showed some signs of decline in 2023, with just a 47/495/2 slash line and a 1.09 yards per route run average, and he suffered a brutal knee injury, including a torn ACL, in the playoffs last season, making him very questionable for the start of the 2024 season. Even if he can return early in the season, it seems likely he won’t be as good as he’s been in the past, given his age and injury history.

No Rams tight end played more than 192 snaps or caught more than 10 passes in the regular season behind Higbee last season, but the Rams prepared for a potential Higbee absence and/or decline in 2024 by signing ex-Seahawks tight end Colby Parkinson to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal in free agency. Parkinson didn’t show a lot in his four seasons in Seattle, playing sparingly in his first two seasons in the league and only seeing part time roles over the past two seasons, with slash lines of 25/322/2 and 25/247/2, but he has had a decent 1.32 yards per route run average over the past two seasons, he’s a decent blocker, and the 2020 4th round pick is only in his age 25 season, so he could have untapped upside. Parkinson is a projection to a larger role and was probably overpaid this off-season, but he could be a decent replacement for Higbee and he could rotate with Higbee, even after he returns.

Behind Higbee and Parkinson, the Rams still have Davis Allen, their nominal backup tight end last season, though the 2023 5th round pick played very sparingly as a rookie. He did have a decent 1.28 yards per route run average in his limited rookie season action, but even if Higbee misses time early in the season, it’s hard to see Allen having a big role, given how infrequently the Rams use multiple tight ends on the field at the same time. This is an above average receiving corps overall, led by one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Another mid-to-late round pick who made a big impact last season was Kyren Williams, a 2022 5th round pick who led the team with 228 carries for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns, a 5.02 YPC average. Williams did that in just 12 games and, unsurprisingly, the Rams went just 2-3 without him, as opposed to 8-4 with him, as the other running backs on this roster combined for just 608 yards and 5 touchdowns on 186 carries, an average of 3.27 YPC.

Williams is not without flaws. He’s undersized at 5-9 197 and, unsurprisingly given his size, has had issues carrying the load and staying healthy, dating back to his collegiate days. He benefited from a great offense around him last season and an offensive line that ranked 5th on PFF in run blocking grade. He is a one-year wonder, seeing just 44 nondescript touches as a rookie in 2022. He also has struggled in passing situations, struggling mightily as a pass blocker and averaging just 0.70 yards per route run and 4.70 yards per target in his career.

Because of all of that, the Rams used a third round pick in this year’s draft on Blake Corum, who could spell Williams frequently to try to keep him healthier and who will likely take on a big role in passing situations. The only two backup running backs the Rams brought back from last season were Zach Evans, a 2023 6th round pick who had just 19 rushing yards on 9 carries as a rookie, and Ronnie Rivers, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has just 150 rushing yards on 41 carries in his career, so Corum doesn’t have much competition for the #2 role.

Evans and Rivers aren’t even guaranteed roster spots, as the Rams added veteran Boston Scott to the mix this off-season. He only has 373 touches in six seasons in the league, but his experience could give him the edge on the #3 back job. The Rams’ #3 back would only see a significant role in case of injury though, with Williams and Corum likely to see the vast majority of the touches as long as both are healthy. Even if Williams has his issues as a lead back, this is a solid backfield, with Corum being added to give them needed depth behind Williams.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was much improved in 2023 compared to 2022. I already mentioned their dominance in run blocking, where they ranked 5th on PFF. They weren’t nearly as good in pass protection, ranking 20th, but that was still a big step up from 2022, when they ranked 25th in pass protection and 19th in run blocking. The biggest reason for their improvement was guard Kevin Dotson, who the Rams acquired in a trade from the Steelers before the season started for just a swap of late round picks.

A 4th round pick in 2020, Dotson showed promise in the first three seasons of his career in Pittsburgh, making 30 starts and receiving PFF grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4, but the Steelers still felt he was expendable after revamping their offensive line last off-season and traded him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. That proved to be a mistake, as Dotson broke out with a career best 85.2 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2023. The Rams then rewarded him this off-season with a 3-year, 48 million dollar contract. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023 and might not repeat that dominant season, but he’s still in his prime in his age 28 season and could easily continue playing at an above average level in 2024.

Dotson wasn’t the only guard the Rams gave a big contract to this off-season, using some of their newfound cap space to sign ex-Lion Jonah Jackson to a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal. Jackson’s arrival will push incumbent Steve Avila inside to center, but Jackson isn’t necessarily going to be an upgrade on Avila, a 2023 2nd round pick who had a decent 61.1 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, while Avila isn’t necessarily going to be an upgrade over incumbent center Cameron Shelton, who had a 64.5 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and was allowed to leave as a free agent this off-season.

Jackson did have PFF grades of 69.3 and 66.1 in 2021 and 2022, but he fell to 59.7 in 2023 and also had a 57.0 PFF grade as a 3rd round rookie in 2020, so it’s hard to justify him being the 7th highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary. Avila, meanwhile, has a high upside and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024, but having to change positions probably hurts his chances of that happening. Even in a best case scenario in which Avila takes a step forward and Jackson bounces back to his top form, the Rams’ offensive line won’t be significantly better than a year ago and the big investment the Rams made in Jackson is unlikely to be worth it.

At left tackle, Alaric Jackson is another player who had a solid season in 2023, despite not being a high draft pick. In fact, Jackson wasn’t drafted at all back in 2021, but he still had a solid 66.2 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. He’s only had one season as a full-time starter, but he flashed potential in 6 starts in his first two seasons in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued at least being a decent starter in 2024 and beyond.

Right tackle Rob Havenstein is by far the longest tenured member of this offensive line, becoming a starter back in his rookie season in 2015 and making 130 starts in nine seasons since. However, with that experience comes age and the potential for decline, now going into his age 32 season. He is starting from a pretty high base point, finishing above 70 on PFF in all but two seasons in the league, including four straight and a career best 81.8 in 2023, so he has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter, but he’s unlikely to match his career best season from a year ago, given his age, and if he drops off significantly, that would hurt this offense.

Joe Noteboom was their top reserve offensive lineman a year ago, playing 573 snaps in 10 games (8 starts), and he’s a versatile reserve who can play any position except probably center. He did struggle with a 52.3 PFF grade in 2023, but the 2018 3rd round pick has finished above 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league (31 starts), so he’s a good reserve option to have. Other reserve options include guard Logan Bruss, a 2022 3rd round pick, tackle Warren McClendon, a 2023 5th round pick, guard/center Beaux Limmer, a 6th round rookie, and tackle/guard KT Leveston, a 7th round rookie, but they are all underwhelming options.

Bruss has yet to play a snap in two seasons in the league, missing his rookie season with injury and then spending most of last season on the practice squad, McClendon played just 32 snaps as a rookie, while Limmer and Leveston are probably too raw to make positive contributions in year one. The Rams have a solid starting five on the offensive line and Noteboom is a good reserve, but the Rams would be in trouble if they lost multiple offensive linemen to injury at the same time, something that didn’t happen a year ago, but that could easily happen in 2024.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Rams lost interior defender Aaron Donald to retirement this off-season, which is a big deal because he still had a 90.9 PFF grade across 865 snaps last season and was still one of the best defensive players in the league. Even with him last season, the Rams still ranked just 22nd in defensive DVOA and that was despite having the fewest adjusted games to injury on defense of any team in the league, so the Rams could be in some serious trouble on this side of the ball in 2024.

The Rams do still have some impressive players though and one of their best is another interior defender Kobie Turner, who had a 83.8 PFF grade last season on 695 snaps, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Turner was yet another mid-round pick who had a big season in 2023, as he was only a third round rookie. With Donald gone, Turner should see an expanded role. He could regress a little on a higher snap count, but he could also continue developing into one of the best interior defenders in the league.

Jonah Williams, who was third at the position in snaps played last season behind Donald and Turner with 597 snaps, is also no longer with the team, although he was pretty mediocre with a 55.6 PFF grade. To replace Donald and Williams’ snaps, on top of giving more snaps to Turner, the Rams also added Braden Fiske in the second round of the draft and will likely give a bigger snap count to Bobby Brown. A 4th round pick in 2021, Brown only played 186 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but impressed in a slightly expanded role in 2023, with a 72.0 PFF grade on 313 snaps. He’s a much better run defender than pass rusher though, with a 3.9% pressure rate last season and a 4.7% pressure rate for his career, so he could struggle if forced into more pass rushing situations in an expanded role. Fiske, meanwhile, profiles as a future starter, but could struggle through growing pains in year one.

Behind Turner, Fiske, and Brown, the Rams have Larrell Murchison, who played 252 snaps last season, Desjuan Johnson, who played 102 snaps last season, and 6th round rookie Tyler Davis, who could play a deep reserve role in year one. All are underwhelming options though. Murchison has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league on an average of 173 snaps per season, including a 49.5 PFF grade in 2023. Johnson was just a 7th round pick in 2023 and didn’t show much in limited action as a rookie. Davis, meanwhile, is unlikely to make much of a positive impact in his first season in the league. Overall, this is a pretty thin interior defender group behind Kobie Turner and they will miss Aaron Donald in a big way.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Rams also got a big contribution from a mid-round rookie at the edge defender position last season, with 3rd round rookie Byron Young receiving a 63.5 PFF grade on 967 snaps as a rookie, while totaling 8 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate. He should remain at least a capable starter in 2024. Michael Hoecht was the starter opposite him and he also was decent on a big snap count, with a 61.7 PFF grade on 960 snaps, while totaling 6 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. Undrafted in 2020, Hoecht was in his first season as a starter in 2023, but he also flashed some potential with a 65.4 PFF grade on 409 snaps in 2022, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate.

Depth was a huge problem at the edge defender position in 2023, which is why Young and Hoecht played so many snaps last season, 5th and 6th in the NFL among edge defenders. In fact, the Rams didn’t have another edge defender play more than 100 snaps last season. That should change this year though, as the Rams used their first round pick on Jared Verse, who will play a significant role in rotation with Young and Hoecht. The Rams also used a 5th round pick on Brennan Jackson to give them another deep reserve option and they could get more out of 2023 5th round pick Nick Hampton and 2023 6th round pick Ochaun Mathis, who played just 67 snaps and 75 snaps respectively as rookies. This is a decent, if unspectacular position group, but at least their depth should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Off ball linebacker Ernest Young is another recent mid round pick who was a big part of the Rams’ season in 2023. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Jones had a 82.1 PFF grade on 932 snaps last season, a breakout year for a player who had previously had PFF grades of 59.3 and 63.6 on snap counts of 440 and 723 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and could regress in 2024, but he’s only in his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner as a high level off ball linebacker.

The rest of this linebacking corps struggled mightily though, with Christian Rozeboom and Troy Reeder ranking second and third in snaps played at 552 and 194 and posting PFF grades of 49.0 and 45.7 respectively. Rozeboom is a 2020 undrafted free agent who only played 8 career snaps prior to last season, while Reeder has finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league and is now going into his age 30 season. The Rams didn’t make any significant additions at this position this off-season, so Rozeboom will remain the starter next to Jones and Reeder will remain the top reserve and both figure to continue struggling at their roles. Jones elevates this position group significantly, but the rest of the group is so bad that they’re still underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Secondary

To mask their lack of depth at linebacker, the Rams frequently used three safeties together in sub packages, with one playing closer to the line of scrimmage as a coverage linebacker. The Rams didn’t bring back Jordan Fuller this off-season, after he had a solid 66.7 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but they signed Kamren Curl to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal to replace him and he should be more than an adequate replacement.

A 7th round pick in 2020, Curl has started 53 of the 60 games he’s played in four seasons in the league, while finishing above 65 on PFF in all four seasons. Curl’s best season came in 2022 when he had a 82.9 PFF grade on 727 snaps in 12 games and, while that looks like an outlier, given that he was below 70 in his other three seasons, it shows his upside. Still only in his age 25 season, Curl should at least be a solid starter in 2024 with the upside for more.

Russ Yeast (800 snaps), John Johnson (518 snaps), and Quentin Lake (451 snaps) all saw roles at safety behind Fuller last season, with Yeast being the one who most frequently played as a de facto linebacker. Yeast and Johnson struggled with PFF grades of 57.0 and 55.8, but Lake played pretty well with a 71.2 PFF grade. The Rams also added to this group this off-season with third round pick Kamren Kitchens.

Yeast will likely remain the starter opposite Curl, despite his struggles last season. Only a 7th round pick in 2022, Yeast was underwhelming on 113 snaps as a rookie before struggling in a bigger role in 2023 and he figures to continue struggling in 2024. Lake or Kinchens could push him for his starting job, but Lake is an inexperienced 2022 6th round pick, with 514 career snaps, while Kinchens could struggle through growing pains as a rookie. Johnson is the most experienced of the bunch, starting 88 of the 103 games he’s played in his career, and he was a solid starter in his prime, but he’s now heading into his age 30 season and his best years seem to be behind him, so he will likely remain only a part-time player and perhaps a mediocre one at that.

The two biggest additions the Rams made on defense this off-season were cornerback Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White, signed to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal and an incentivized 1-year, 4.25 million dollar deal respectively. White should be a starter if healthy, but that’s a big if, considering he has been limited to 21 games over the past three seasons due to a torn ACL and a torn achilles. White was a high level cornerback before his injuries, surpassing a 70 grade on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, but he has not been the same since and the achilles tear he is working back from now only complicates things. He’s still only in his age 29 season, but it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point.

For Williams, this is a return to the Rams, where he spent the first four seasons of his career from 2018-2021. The former undrafted free agent became a starter in 2020 and posted PFF grades of 80.0 and 65.3 in his two seasons as a starter with the Rams, before posting PFF grades of 62.6 and 79.5 as a starter with the Jaguars over the past two seasons. In total, he has started 52 of the 64 games he has played over the past four seasons, including all 17 last season. He’s going into his age 31 season now and could start to decline, but he has a good chance to remain an at least a solid starter.

The Rams’ top three cornerbacks last season were Akhello Witherspoon (1,060 snaps), Derion Kendrick (857 snaps), and Cobie Durant (642 snaps), who had PFF grades of 64.3, 59.8, and 56.9, so it won’t be hard for Williams and White to be an upgrade, even if Williams is on the wrong side of 30 and White is coming off of another significant injury. Witherspoon is no longer with the team, while Kendrick and Durant figure to compete for the #3 cornerback job behind Williams and White.

Both Kendrick and Durant struggled last season, but Durant should have the higher upside, as he went in the 4th round in 2022 and flashed potential with a 73.3 PFF grade on 281 snaps as a rookie, while Kendrick only went in the 6th round in 2022 and struggled with a 43.7 PFF grade on 483 snaps as a rookie. It’s possible neither will be even a capable third cornerback in 2024, but Durant has the better chance. Overall, this should be an upgraded secondary compared to a year ago with Kamren Curl, Darious Williams, and Tre’Davious White added, but this group still has problems.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Rams made some significant additions through free agency and the draft this off-season and they were a playoff qualifier a year ago, but they are also likely to have more injuries than a year ago, when they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, and they will miss retired interior defender Aaron Donald, who was still one of the best defensive players in the league. Their success is also very dependent on quarterback Matt Stafford not declining and staying healthy, both of which are not guarantees, given that he is in his age 36 season and has dealt with serious injuries in recent years. In the weak NFC, the Rams should still have a good chance to qualify for the playoffs again, unless Stafford gets hurt or drops off significantly, but I wouldn’t expect them to take a step forward from a year ago, despite their off-season additions.

Update: The Rams’ already weak defense took another big hit when they traded away linebacker Ernest Jones, rather than re-signing him long-term ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. The Rams are likely to be on the outside looking in for a playoff spot at season’s end, especially given their tough schedule.

Prediction: 8-9, 3rd in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Quarterback

Going into last season, the Cardinals looked like arguably the worst team in the league, with one of the worst rosters in the league and an injured quarterback in Kyler Murray who didn’t seem likely to return from his ACL tear until mid-season. The Cardinals finished 4-13, but they were better than that suggests, especially after Kyler Murray returned in week 10, from which point the Cardinals went 3-5, obviously below .500, but better than many would have expected for them in that stretch, even with Murray.

In terms of first down rate differential, the Cardinals finished at -3.86%, but when you weight their performances later in the season more heavily, that improves to -2.88%. Going into 2024, Murray should be fully healthy and the Cardinals should have a better roster around him, making significant investments in free agency and drafting eight times in the top-104 picks in the draft, including a pair of first round picks. All of that should make for a much more competitive team than a year ago and likely a significant jump in win total. That might not translate to a playoff appearance, but they’re heading in the right direction.

Murray’s stats in 2023 don’t look that impressive, as he completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 8 games, while rushing for 5.55 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 44 carries, but he wasn’t 100% healthy and had a weak supporting cast, two things that should be better in 2024. Prior to his injury, Murray had completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 64 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, with 5.76 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 288 carries in his previous 41 starts over the 2020-2022 seasons, while missing just three games due to injury in that stretch. He’ll always be more of an injury risk than most quarterbacks because of how much he takes off and runs, but he has a good chance to bounce back to his 2020-2022 form this season.

If Murray ends up missing more time due to injury, he would be replaced by Desmond Ridder, who the Cardinals acquired from the Falcons this off-season. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Ridder has completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.05 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 17 starts, which is underwhelming and why he lost his starting job, but he’s not bad as far as backups go and, only going into his age 25 season, he could have further untapped upside in 2024 and beyond. Overall, this is not a bad quarterback room.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Arguably the biggest addition the Cardinals made to their offensive supporting cast this off-season was Marvin Harrison, who they selected 4th overall, making him the highest drafted non-quarterback in this year’s draft. Harrison is one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent memory and likely would have been a top-3 pick if this wasn’t one of the strongest quarterback drafts in recent memory. He will essentially be replacing free agent departure Marquise Brown, who was nominally the #1 wide receiver last season, but had just a 51/574/4 slash line with 5.68 yards per target and 1.25 yards per route run. Harrison should be a noticeable upgrade, even in year one.

Another young receiver, Michael Wilson, should be the #2 wide receiver. A 3rd round pick in 2023, Wilson didn’t have a bad rookie year, considering he was a rookie on an offense with a lot of problems, as he had a 38/565/3 slash line in 13 games with a 1.36 yards per route run average and a 9.74 yards per target average. Now going into his second season in the league, on what should be a better offense, Wilson has a good chance to take a significant step forward statistically.

The Cardinals also added veteran Zay Jones on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal this off-season and he should be their #3 receiver, replacing Rondale Moore, who had just a 40/352/1 slash line with 0.73 yards per route run and 5.68 yards per target last season. Jones was limited to a 34/321/2 slash line and a 1.05 yards per route run average with the Jaguars in 2023, but he missed eight games with injury and was limited in several games he did play. Prior to last season’s down performance, he had a 47/546/1 slash line in 2021 and a 82/823/5 slash line in 2022, with a combined 1.41 yards per route run average, so he should have bounce back potential in 2024 if he’s healthy, still relatively young in his age 29 season.

Veteran holdover Greg Dortch and veteran free agent addition Chris Moore are probably the Cardinals’ top reserve wide receivers. Originally undrafted in 2019, Dortch has slash lines of 52/461/2 and 24/281/2 over the past two seasons as a slot receiver specialist, with an average of 1.26 yards per route run. Moore, meanwhile, has a 1.37 yards per route run average in the past three seasons combined, with slash lines of 21/227/2, 48/548/2, and 22/424/0 in a part-time role, though he is now going into his age 31 season and could decline a little bit in 2024. They’re not bad depth and this isn’t a bad wide receiver group, especially compared to last season, but they’re still an underwhelming group overall.

With all of the problems the Cardinals had at wide receiver last season, tight end Trey McBride led this team with a 81/825/3 slash line, while averaging 2.03 yards per route run and 7.78 yards per target. Overall, McBride ranked 7th in the NFL among tight ends in receiving yardage, 2nd in yards per route run, and 6th in PFF grade at 76.3. He was even better in the final 10 games of the season from week 8 onward, after the Cardinals parted ways with veteran Zach Ertz, with whom McBride had previously been splitting snaps. In those 10 games, McBride had a 66/655/3 slash line, which extrapolates to 112/1114/5 over a 17-game season.

McBride is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2022 2nd round pick had just a 29/265/1 slash line and a 0.84 yards per route run average as a rookie, but he came into the league with a lot of upside and it often takes tight ends a year at least to develop, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if McBride remained an above average tight end going forward, with the upside to improve even further, still only going into his age 25 season. With little competition for tight end snaps and a better offense around him, McBride could easily exceed last season’s already impressive receiving totals.

McBrie will be backed up by Tip Reiman, 3rd round rookie. Reiman has upside as a receiver, but will likely struggle in that capacity as a rookie and was mostly drafted for his size and blocking ability at 6-5 271. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over incumbent backup Geoff Swaim, who is no longer with the team, after posting a 10/94/0 slash line with 0.94 yards per route run in 2023, while struggling as a blocker as well. This is a young receiving corps overall, but they have a lot of upside, led by third year Trey McBride, rookie Marvin Harrison, and second year Michael Wilson.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Cardinals also made a big investment on their offensive line this off-season, signing Jonah Williams to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal. He will essentially replace DJ Humphries, who was a cap casualty this off-season ahead of a 16 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2024, after a 2023 season in which he had a 62.5 PFF grade in 15 starts. Humphries played left tackle last season, but Williams played both left and right tackle in his previous home in Cincinnati and could play either spot in Arizona. It sounds like the Cardinals will start him at right tackle for now, with incumbent right tackle Paris Johnson moving to the left side, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals flipped those two at some point.

Williams was a first round pick by the Bengals in 2019 and showed a lot of promise early in his career, with PFF grades of 70.1 and 77.1 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, after missing his entire rookie season with injury, but he declined to 61.2 in 2022 and then declined further to 58.5 in 2023 in his lone season at right tackle. Williams is still relatively young in his age 27 season and has some bounce back potential, but that potential is less than it was a year ago, now coming off of back-to-back down years. Paris Johnson, meanwhile, is also a former first round pick, selected 6th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was unspectacular as a rookie, with a 60.1 PFF grade, but he has the upside to take a big step forward in his second season in the league in 2024.

On the interior, the Cardinals got decent seasons out of two of their starters a year ago, with center Hjalte Froholdt and right guard Will Hernandez posting PFF grades of 64.1 and 66.2 respectively, while starting all 17 games. Froholdt was in his first full season as a starter, but had a decent 61.4 PFF grade in 6 starts in 2022 as well and could easily continue being a capable, if unspectacular starter in 2024. Hernandez, meanwhile, has made 86 starts in six seasons in the league since being a second round pick in 2018. He’s been inconsistent in his career, with three seasons in the 50s on PFF and three seasons in the 60s, but he’s coming off of back-to-back decent seasons, also receiving a 65.4 PFF grade in 2022, so he could continue being a capable starter in 2024, still only in his age 29 season.

Left guard, on the other hand, was a weak spot for the Cardinals in 2023, with Elijah Wilkinson, Trystan Colon, Carter O’Donnell, Dennis Daley all making starts and all finishing below 60 on PFF. To upgrade this position, the Cardinals signed veteran Evan Brown to a 1-year, 2.35 million dollar deal and then used a third round pick on Isaiah Adams. Brown is the favorite for the job and he’s likely to be a significant upgrade over what they had a year ago, but Adams has more upside long-term and could take over the job at some point down the stretch. Brown has made 40 starts over the past three seasons. He’s coming off of a down year with a 55.5 PFF grade, but he had PFF grades of 66.8 and 64.8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively and, only in his age 28 season, could easily bounce back in 2024.

Wilkinson, Colon, O’Donnell, and Daley all return and will compete for reserve roles, but they’re all underwhelming options. Daley and Wilkinson are at least experienced and both have the ability to play multiple positions, so they’re probably the favorite for the backup jobs. Daley was a 6th round pick in 2019 and has made 37 starts in five seasons in the league, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, including a 38.4 PFF grade in 2023. Elijah Wilkinson has made 45 starts in seven seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2017 and he received PFF grades of 65.5, 65.0, and 64.3 in 2018, 2021, and 2022, when he made a combined 17 starts, but he’s otherwise struggled, including a 46.2 PFF grade in 9 starts in 2023.

Colon and O’Donnell, meanwhile, are much less experienced and likely have lower odds of making the final roster. Both are 2020 undrafted free agents. Colon has played just 645 snaps in four seasons in the league, struggling with a 59.6 PFF grade on a career high 322 snaps in 2023, while O’Donnell is also a 2020 undrafted free agent, who struggled with a 54.1 PFF grade on the first 193 snaps of his career in 2023. Colon has some experience at center, which increases his chances, but, on a deeper offensive line than a year ago, they probably have uphill battles to make the final roster.

The Cardinals also bring back swing tackle Kelvin Beachum. Beachum has started 149 games in 12 seasons in the league and has finished above 60 on PFF in all twelve of those seasons, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and is only a backup caliber player at this stage of his career. He did have a 61.2 PFF grade across 212 snaps a year ago and could probably still fill in decently for a few games if needed in the case of an injury, but he also could decline significantly given his age. It’s possible he’ll be pushed for the swing tackle job by 5th round rookie Christian Jones. Overall, this is a decent, if unspectacular offensive line.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Despite problems on the offensive line and with this offense in general, the Cardinals were actually a very effective running team in 2023, averaging 5.02 YPC, second in the NFL. James Conner led the way with 1,040 yards and 7 touchdowns on 208 carries, an average of 5.00 YPC. It was a career best year for a 7-year veteran who had previously never surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season and who has just a 4.33 YPC in his career across 1,125 carries, so it’s unlikely he repeats that performance, especially given that he’s now in his age 29 season, which tends to be around when running backs start to decline, often significantly.

Conner is also an injury prone player who has missed 24 games in his career, with at least two games missed in every season. He will likely miss more time in 2024, but the Cardinals don’t have bad depth behind him. Emari Demercado averaged 4.90 YPC on 58 carries last season, despite being an undrafted rookie. He’s still very unproven, but the Cardinals added further depth this off-season, selecting Trey Benson in the third round of the draft. They’ll compete for the backup job with Michael Carter, a mid-season waiver claim last season who only had 31 touches in six games once joining the Cardinals, but who has a decent 4.22 YPC average on 291 carries in three seasons since being a 4th round pick of the Jets in 2021.

Conner is a decent pass catcher with a 1.14 yards per route run average and an average slash line of 39/302/2 in six seasons as a starter, but Demercado was their primary third down back last season to give Conner a rest and he struggled with a 21/119/0 slash line and a 0.73 yards per route run average. The rookie Benson has some pass catching upside, with 20 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown in his final collegiate season, and Carter has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, so there will be competition for passing down roles. Conner probably won’t have as good of a season as he had a year ago, but, overall he’s a solid lead back and the Cardinals have decent depth as well.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Defense was the Cardinals’ biggest problem a year ago, as they ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and didn’t really get better down the stretch, as their improvement in the second half of the season was led by their offense and the return of quarterback Kyler Murray from injury. The interior defender position was a big problem a year ago and, while the Cardinals tried hard to improve the group, they might only be better at this position by default. Their worst interior defenders from a year ago, Jonathan Ledbetter, who had a 36.1 PFF grade on 511 snaps, Leki Fotu, who had a 46.1 PFF grade on 297 snaps, and Kevin Strong, who had a 50.1 PFF grade on 467 snaps, are all gone, but their replacements was mostly underwhelming too.

Justin Jones was signed to a 3-year, 31.165 million dollar deal and he’s played significant snap counts in the past two seasons, with 746 snaps played in 2022 and 740 snaps played in 2023, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including grades of 45.8 and 49.3 on those big snap counts the past two seasons, so he was a big overpay. Bilal Nichols wasn’t really an overpay, signed for a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal, but he’s an underwhelming option as well, with PFF grades of 55.5 and 51.6 respectively across 801 snaps and 616 snaps respectively over the past two seasons. He’s been better in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling, now two years removed from his last decent season.

The Cardinals did use a first round pick on Darius Robinson, a hybrid defensive lineman who figures to see the majority of his snaps on the interior, particularly in pass rush situations. He should be a boost for this group, but he could also be their top interior defender, which is a concern, as he’s just a rookie and could have some growing pains in year one. They also bring back Roy Lopez and Dante Stills, who were their best interior defenders a year ago, with PFF grades of 65.4 and 59.3 on snap counts of 395 and 533 respectively.

Stills was only a 6th round rookie a year ago and could take a step forward in year two, but he also didn’t come into the league with a high upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being a mediocre option. Lopez, meanwhile, was decent in a limited role last season, but the 2021 6th round pick struggled in bigger roles in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 55.7 and 53.1 on snap counts of 502 and 557 respectively. He probably won’t see a high snap count in a position group that is by default better than a year ago, so he could remain a useful rotational player, but, overall, this is still an underwhelming position group, even after the Cardinals made significant investments in it this off-season.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

Things should stay the same at the edge defender position in 2024, with the exception of hybrid rookie Darius Robinson potentially seeing some snaps on the edge and 5th round rookie Xavier Thomas potentially working his way into a role down the stretch. Zaven Collins (636 snaps), Dennis Gardeck (510 snaps), BJ Ojulari (409 snaps), Victor Dimukeje (385 snaps), and Cameron Thomas (355 snaps) all saw significant snaps last season and should continue playing a significant role this season.

Zaven Collins was arguably the Cardinals’ best defensive player last season, although mostly by default, as he finished with a 72.1 PFF grade, playing well against the run, in coverage, and as a pass rusher, with a 11.0% pressure rate. A first round pick in 2021, Collins started his career as an off ball linebacker, flashing potential with a 69.3 PFF grade on 220 snaps as a backup in 2021, but struggling with a 59.8 PFF grade across 1,025 snaps as a starter in 2022. He seems to be better in his new position and he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could easily remain an above average starter and could potentially take another step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2024.

Dennis Gardeck was their best edge rusher in 2023, leading the team with 6 sacks, while adding 8 hits and a 17.4% pressure, but he struggled mightily against the run, leading to a middling 67.6 PFF grade overall. He’s also a one-year wonder, as the 2018 undrafted free agent played just 480 snaps total in his career prior to last season, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could regress in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play fewer snaps in 2024, in favor of younger players like BJ Ojulari, Cameron Thomas, and Victor DImukeje.

Ojulari was a second round pick in 2023 and showed some promise with a 64.8 PFF grade and a 12.4% pressure rate in a limited rookie year role. He came into the league with a lot of upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him translate his promising rookie season into a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2024. Thomas was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and showed promise with a 69.9 PFF grade in 237 snaps and a 12.3% pressure rate as a rookie, but he took a step back in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023, finishing with a 58.5 PFF grade and a 8.0% pressure rate. Thomas still has upside and could have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2024, but he hasn’t shown much in two seasons in the league.

Dimukeje, meanwhile, was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and struggled across 297 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but he took a step forward with a 67.5 PFF grade in a limited role in 2023, especially playing well as a pass rusher, with a 15.9% pressure rate. It’s possible he could continue being a solid rotational player in 2024 and beyond, but he’s still pretty unproven and wasn’t a high draft pick, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed in 2024. Overall, this is an underwhelming edge defender group, but it’s at least young and has some upside.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, Kyzir White, Josh Woods, and Krys Barnes all played significant roles, seeing 64.4 snaps per game, 51.6 snaps per game, and 40.8 snaps per game, but not at the same time, as injuries limited them to 11 games, 11 games, and 10 games respectively. The Cardinals also frequently used three safeties together in sub packages with one playing as a coverage linebacker, to mask their lack of depth at the linebacker position, especially when injuries struck.

The Cardinals will hope for healthier seasons from their top-3 linebackers, but that wasn’t their only problem at the position. Kyzir White was the leader of the group, playing every down when healthy, but he was underwhelming with a 58.9 PFF grade. That was the second worst grade of his 6-year career, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also never finished above a 66.6 PFF grade for a season, so, even at his best, he’s only a capable starter. Krys Barnes wasn’t bad with a 60.1 PFF grade in 2023, but that was a career best for the 2020 undrafted free agent, who had grades of 43.7, 53.0, and 46.7 in his first three seasons in the league, and he’s never played more than 526 snaps in a season, so he would be a very underwhelming starting option, especially if he were to play close to an every down role.

Josh Woods, meanwhile, was the worst of the bunch, with a 31.8 PFF grade, which shouldn’t be a surprise because the 2018 undrafted free agent had previously played just 170 defensive snaps in his first five seasons in the league. He would be underwhelming, even as a backup. The Cardinals could hope for more out of 2023 5th round pick Owen Pappoe, who was decent with a 65.3 PFF grade last season, but he only played 114 snaps as a deep reserve and would be a projection to a bigger role. Even if they’re healthier than a year ago, this remains a well below average position group, with no significant additions made to it this off-season.

Grade: C

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Cardinals frequently used three safeties together in sub packages to try to mask their lack of linebacker depth, which makes sense because safety was probably their most talented position a year ago. That should remain the case in 2024. Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker were the starters, playing 938 snaps in 15 games and 763 snaps in 12 games respectively. Andre Chachere was the third safety, playing 467 snaps in 17 games as a reserve, while K’Von Wallace played 393 snaps in 6 games, mostly as an injury replacement when Thompson or Baker were out.

Thompson was the one who most commonly played linebacker in sub packages and he was the best of the bunch. A 5th round pick in the 2019 supplemental draft, Thompson has received PFF grades above 60 from PFF in each of the past five seasons, including grades of 68.2, 65.0, and 71.3 in a combined 44 starts over the past three seasons respectively, with his career best grade in 2023 being second best on this defense behind Zaven Collins.

Thompson might not repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, but he should remain at least an above average starter and it’s possible he has further untapped upside, only going into his age 26 season. Budda Baker, meanwhile, had a 64.8 PFF grade in 2023, but that was actually a down year for him, the worst season-long grade of his 7-year NFL career. It’s possible he was never fully healthy, after getting hurt in week 1 and missing the next five weeks. Baker has finished above 70 on PFF in four of his seven seasons in the league and, still only in his age 28 season, he could easily bounce back. He and Thompson are a solid safety duo.

Chachere had a solid season as the third safety last season, but that was a surprise, as the 2018 undrafted free agent had only played 129 snaps in his career prior to last season, so he could regress in 2024, as an unproven one-year wonder. The Cardinals didn’t bring back K’Von Wallace, but he struggled with a 57.3 PFF grade and he was replaced by 4th round pick Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, who should be a decent 4th safety, even as a rookie.

Cornerback was a big position of weakness for the Cardinals last season, as Marco Wilson (694 snaps), Antonio Hamilton (559 snaps), Starling Thomas (473 snaps), Kel’Tral Clark (464 snaps), and Garrett Williams (360 snaps) all played significant snaps and only Hamilton (64.7 PFF grade) finished above 60 on PFF. Hamilton is no longer with the team, nor is Wilson, leaving Thomas, Clark, and Williams as the top holdovers and all three were members of the 2023 draft class and are only going into their second seasons in the league.

The Cardinals then added three more cornerbacks from this year’s draft class, second round pick Max Melton, third round pick Elijah Jones, and seventh round pick Jaden Davis, making this a very young cornerback group, with the only veteran being free agent acquisition Sean Murphy-Bunting, who was signed to a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal. Murphy-Bunting and Melton are likely locked in as starters, but both are underwhelming options.

Melton profiles as a long-term starter, but could struggle through growing pains in year one, while Murphy-Bunting is a 2019 2nd round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, but the two exceptions were the two seasons where he’s played the most, with PFF grades of 55.9 and 57.6 on snap counts of 884 and 840 in 2020 and 2023 respectively. The third cornerback job is up for grabs, but Garrett Williams is probably the favorite, as a 2023 3rd round pick who wasn’t horrible with a 56.7 PFF grade in a limited role as a rookie and who has the upside to take a step forward in year two.

Elijah Jones is probably Williams’ biggest competition for the third cornerback job, but he could struggle through growing pains as a third round rookie. The Cardinals’ other cornerback options probably aren’t serious candidates for a significant role unless multiple players get hurt. Seventh round rookie Jaden Davis is probably too raw to play significant roles as a rookie, while Starling Thomas and Kel’Tral Clark struggled mightily as rookies in 2023, with PFF grades of 46.1 and 53.0 and neither were highly drafted, going undrafted and in the 6th round respectively. This cornerback group has upside and could be better than last year by default, but they are a weak group overall. The Cardinals do have a solid group of safeties, which is the strength of this defense, but overall their secondary is middling at best.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Cardinals were a much more competitive team down the stretch last season after Kyler Murray returned from injury and he should be healthier this season. The Cardinals also improved their roster around the quarterback this off-season and should have better health overall, after having the fifth most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season. They should take a significant step forward in terms of win total after winning just four games a year ago. However, this team still has a lot of holes, especially on defense, and, as a result, they’re probably still not a legitimate contender for a playoff berth in the NFC and they’re probably still the worst team in an overall tough NFC West.

Update: The Cardinals’ already weak defense lost BJ Ojulari for the season due to injury and will be without Darius Robinson for the start of the season with an injury of his own. Their offense should continue their solid play from down the stretch in 2023, but their defense will prevent them from winning a lot of games, especially against one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC West

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 15, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers

Quarterback

The Buccaneers went all-in on their three seasons with Tom Brady, aggressively borrowing against future cap space to keep as much talent around Brady as possible. The Buccaneers went 32-18 in the regular season in those three seasons, with five playoff wins and a Super Bowl victory, but when Brady retired last off-season, the Buccaneers were forced to go in a new direction. They could have continued being aggressive and continued borrowing against future cap space to keep payroll as high as possible, in an attempt to remain relevant, but instead they started a little bit of a teardown and rebuild process to try to improve their long-term cap situation.

The Buccaneers kept several key players, but moved on from others and, overall, looked noticeably worse than the year prior, even before considering that they no longer had Tom Brady under center. Without a high draft pick or significant cap space to use on a replacement for Brady, the Buccaneers took a chance on a reclamation project in Baker Mayfield on an incentivized 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and had him compete for the starting job with 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask, who entered the league with upside, but had only thrown nine passes in his first two seasons in the league and underwhelmed behind the scenes. Overall, their quarterback room looked like one of the worst in the league going into last season.

However, Mayfield surprised in a big way in his first season in Tampa Bay, completing 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while leading the Buccaneers to a 9-8 record, a division title, and a playoff victory. This off-season, the Buccaneers had a decision to make on Mayfield long-term and opted to keep him on a 3-year, 100 million dollar deal, a big raise over last season, but a necessary contract to keep him after his performance in 2023.

Mayfield’s history of inconsistency is still concerning though. He isn’t a complete one-year wonder, as the 94.6 QB rating he had last season was his third season over 90 in QB rating in six seasons in the league, but in his other three seasons, he has combined for 59.9% completion, 6.99 YPA, 49 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, a QB rating of just 80.2 in 40 starts. In addition to potential regression from Mayfield, another concern for the Buccaneers is that they were lucky to have the success they had a year ago. Not only did they play in the weakest division in football in 2023, a division that should be better this season with Kirk Cousins joining the Falcons, but they also had a -0.33 yards per play differential and a -2.75% first down rate differential.

The Buccaneers did win a playoff game, but they also got lucky with that, as they faced an Eagles team that was in complete freefall at the end of the season. If the Buccaneers want to make it back to the post-season in 2024, they will almost definitely have to be better than they were in 2023 and that doesn’t appear to be the case for this team. With Baker Mayfield’s new expensive contract and lingering cap issues from the Brady era, the Buccaneers didn’t have much financial flexibility this off-season to improve this roster. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, this team likely will in terms of win total and, if he does regress significantly, the Buccaneers will have a hard time being competitive, even in the weaker NFC.

Mayfield will continue being backed up by Kyle Trask, who still barely has any NFL experience, adding just one more pass attempt to his career total in 2023. He’s still only in his age 26 season and came into the league with a lot of upside, so he’s not a bad backup option, but there are also much better backups than him around the league. If he had to start in Mayfield’s absence for an extended period of time, he could easily struggle, which would make it hard for this Buccaneers’ team to consistently win games.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The strength of this offense last season was their top-2 wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who were one of three wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2023. That was actually the 4th time in the past five seasons that Evans and Godwin had both surpassed 1000 yards receiving in the same season, with the one exception being a season in which Godwin still had 840 yards receiving, despite being limited to 12 games by injuries.

Evans has actually surpassed 1000 yards receiving in all ten seasons of his career, shattering the previous record to start a career. Over those ten seasons, Evans has averaged a 76/1168/9 slash line per season, with 2.06 yards per route run, while missing just nine total games. Evans is now going into his age 31 season and will start to decline soon, possibly even this season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that, even if he does decline, he should remain an above average receiver and could possibly still surpass 1000 yards receiving for the 11th straight season. The Buccaneers kept him as a free agent this off-season on a 2-year, 41 million dollar deal.

Godwin is younger, still only going into his age 28 season, and, while he hasn’t been as good as Evans in his career, he still has an average of 1.94 yards per route run in seven seasons in the league and, if Evans declines noticeably this season, Godwin could easily end up as the Buccaneers’ de facto #1 receiver. Barring a massive decline from Evans, he and Godwin should remain one of the best wide receiver duos in the league again in 2024.

The rest of this receiving corps is still a big concern though, as the Buccaneers were unable to make significant upgrades to what was a very thin group a year ago. Running back Rachaad White was third on the team in receiving yardage with a 64/549/3 slash line and he only averaged 1.22 yards per route run. Tight end Cade Otton was fourth on the team with a 47/455/4 slash line, an underwhelming total considering he played 1,063 total snaps, most in the NFL by a tight end. He averaged just 0.80 yards per route run and 6.79 yards per target. Trey Palmer, their 3rd receiver, was fifth on the team with a 39/385/3 slash line and he averaged just 0.84 yards per route run and 5.66 yards per target. After Palmer, the Buccaneers didn’t have another pass catcher with at least 100 yards receiving.

White is an above average pass catcher for a running back, averaging 1.13 yards per route run as a rookie in 2022 and producing as a receiver in college as well, but it’s a concern when a running back is your third option in the passing game. Otton is a 2022 4th round pick who could theoretically be better in year three in 2024, but he has a long way to go to even be an average starting tight end, with just 0.82 yards per route run through two seasons in the league. He’ll continue being backed up by Ko Kieft, a 2022 6th round pick who has caught just 8 passes in two seasons in the league with 0.73 yards per route run.

Trey Palmer could remain the #3 receiver, but he’ll at least have some competition for his job, which is good because he was only a 6th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and doesn’t have a high upside. In this year’s draft, the Buccaneers used a third round pick on Jalen McMillan, who could have a big role in year one. He could struggle through growing pains, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Palmer, both in the short-term and in the long-term.

The Buccaneers also signed veteran Sterling Shepard in free agency. He has a decent 1.45 yards per route run average in his career, but he missed 34 of 66 possible games from 2019-2022, fell to 0.63 yards per route run and 2.59 yards per target in 2023, and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’d be a very underwhelming #3 receiver and isn’t even a lock to make the final roster. The Buccaneers have a great wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the rest of this receiving corps is a mess, which is a concern and would especially be a concern if either Evans or Godwin missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Buccaneers’ running game was also a big weakness last season, as they ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.44. Run blocking was a big part of the problem, as they ranked 29th on PFF in terms of team run blocking grade, but their running backs were part of the problem as well. Lead back Rachaad White averaged just 3.64 YPC with 6 touchdowns on 272 carries and had just 2.53 yards per carry after contact with just 39 broken tackles, giving him a below average elusive rating of 45.9. A 3rd round pick in 2022, White also only averaged 3.71 yards per carry with an elusive rating of 31.3 as a rookie. He’s only in his age 25 season and could take a step forward in year three, but his career is off to an underwhelming start.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers won’t have much choice but to give White a big role again, only adding 4th round rookie Bucky Irving to the mix this off-season. Irving is a good pass catcher and can provide a change of pace, so he will probably see a few touches per game as the backup in his rookie season, but I wouldn’t expect more than that from him. The Buccaneers also have incumbent backup Chase Edmonds, who was second among Buccaneers running backs with 49 carries last season, averaging 3.59 YPC, while averaging just 0.99 yards per route run.

Edmonds has averaged 4.38 YPC and 1.14 yards per route run in his career, but he’s never had more than 159 touches in a season, with an average of 101 touches per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 28 season, which is relatively old for a running back, and he has a largely redundant skill set to Irving, who is likely to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Aside from Irving and Edmonds, the Buccaneers’ only other running backs on the roster are 2023 undrafted free agent Sean Tucker, who turned 15 rookie year carries into just 23 yards, as well as 2024 undrafted free agents DJ Williams and Ramon Jefferson, who are long shots to make the roster, even in a thin position group. Overall, this is one of the worst running back groups in the league.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggled mightily in run blocking last season, but they were actually a solid offensive line in pass protection, ranking 10th in pass blocking grade on PFF. The strength of this line is the tackle position. Tristan Wirfs was one of the best left tackles in the league with a 81.1 PFF grade. It was his first season on the left side, but the 2020 1st round pick previously excelled at right tackle, with PFF grades of 81.8, 84.6, and 83.8 across his first three seasons in the league. Still only in his age 25 season, Wirfs should remain one of the best left tackles in the league for years to come and could possibly have further untapped upside.

In Wirfs’ old spot at right tackle, the Buccaneers got a breakout year from 2022 2nd round pick Luke Goedeke, who had a 72.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. Goedeke struggled mightily as a rookie, with a 43.7 PFF grade in 8 starts, but all of those starts except one came at guard and Goedeke seemed to be a lot more comfortable on the outside. It’s possible he regresses in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s permanently turned the corner and will remain an above average right tackle, with the upside to potentially be even better in 2024 and beyond. Wirfs and Goedeke will be backed up again by Justin Skule, who has only had to play 35 snaps over the past three seasons, but who made 12 starts in 2019 and 2020, with a 62.3 PFF grade across 545 snaps and a 45.4 PFF grade across 255 snaps respectively. He’s a middling swing tackle and the Buccaneers will obviously be hoping he remains on the bench for most of the season again.

While the Buccaneers’ tackles played well in 2023, the interior of this offensive line was a big weakness in 2023. Center should be a lot better in 2024, as the Buccaneers will be replacing Robert Hainsey, who had a 52.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, with first round pick Graham Barton, who figures to be a big upgrade right away. The Buccaneers will also be hoping for more out of a 2023 2nd round pick at right guard, Cody Mauch, who had a 44.7 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but has the upside to be better in year two. He has a long way to go to even be an average starter though and could easily continue struggling in 2024.

At left guard, the Buccaneers will likely continue getting poor play. Aaron Stinnie, who had a 56.6 PFF grade across 717 snaps, and Matt Feiler, who had a 54.7 PFF grade across 386 snaps, are no longer with the team, but their replacement options, veteran free agent additions Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta, are equally underwhelming options. Bredeson started 16 games for the Giants in 2023, but struggled mightily with a 42.1 PFF grade. The 2020 4th round pick has started 25 games in four seasons in the league, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons. Opeta, meanwhile, has just 10 starts in five seasons in the league, with 6 of them coming in 2023, when he had a 53.2 PFF grade.

Bredeson’s 1-year deal is worth a little more, 3 million vs. 1.375 million, so he should be considered the favorite for the job, but both players figure to struggle and it’s possible both players see starts as the Buccaneers try to find a solution at the position. The Buccaneers could also try Robert Hainsey at guard and he was better as a 17-game starter in 2022 (66.7 PFF grade) than he was in 2023 when he struggled, but he’s only ever played center at the professional level. The Buccaneers could also keep Hainsey at center and try the rookie Graham Barton at guard, but they seem to prefer him at center. Either way, the Buccaneers are likely to have at least one position of significant weakness upfront, possibly two if Cody Mauch can’t take a big step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

With limited financial flexibility this off-season, the Buccaneers decided to part ways with Shaq Barrett, ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024. Barrett was set to be in his age 32 season this season, so the decision to move on from him made some sense, but he was still coming off of a good season and will be missed. He only had 4.5 sacks, but added 7 hits and a 13.8% pressure rate, while playing at an above average level against the run, leading to him receiving an overall PFF grade of 75.3 across 651 snaps.

To replace Barrett, the Buccaneers used a second round pick on Chris Braswell and will probably give expanded roles to 2021 1st round pick Joe Tyron-Shoyinka and 2023 3rd round pick Yaya Diaby, who are both only going into their age 25 seasons and could have untapped upside. Diaby played 515 snaps as a rookie last season and had a decent 64.2 PFF grade, while Tyron-Shoyinka has received PFF grades of 51.5, 67.1, and 65.5 across an average of 620 snaps played per season through three seasons in the league. They’ll need to take a step forward to be anything more than decent starters in 2024, but both have to upside to do that. The rookie Braswell also has a high upside and, though he could have growing pains as a rookie, he could still be useful in a situational role.

The Buccaneers also bring back veteran Anthony Nelson, after he had a 60.2 PFF grade across 409 snaps last season. That’s largely in line with what the 2019 4th round pick has done in every season for his 5-year career to date, averaging 375 snaps per season and finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons. He only has a career 7.3% pressure rate, but he’s an above average run stopper who should be useful as a situational run stopper in base packages. Nelson, Diaby, Tyron-Shyonika, and Braswell should all have significant roles in a position group that has upside, but that could struggle to replace Shaq Barrett, their best edge defender a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Buccaneers’ bring back all of their key personnel from a year ago and they should all play similar roles. Vita Vea led the position group in 606 snaps and was by far the best of the bunch, with a 78.5 PFF grade. That was in line with his average season since entering the league as a first round pick in 2018, as he has averaged 536 snaps per season, while surpassing 70 on PFF in five of those six seasons. A solid run stuffer at 6-4 347, Vea is also a surprisingly good pass rusher for his size, with 23.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 79 career games. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Vea in 2024.

The rest of this group struggled a year ago, as Vea was their only interior defender who finished above 60 on PFF, but they do have a couple young players who could take a step forward in 2024. Calijah Kancey was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled mightily with a 46.6 PFF grade as a rookie. He was a decent interior pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but was horrendous against the run, which pushed his overall grade down.

Kancey will likely always be a much better pass rusher than run stopper, but he has the upside to be significantly better in both aspects this year in his second season in the league. Logan Hall, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2022. He struggled mightily as a rookie with a 35.3 PFF grade across 403 snaps and was only better by default in 2023, with a 54.2 PFF grade across 542 snaps, but he’s still only in his age 24 season and came into the league with a high upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward in his third season in the league and was at least a capable starter.

Veterans Greg Gaines and William Gholston remain as reserves, after playing 473 snaps and 244 snaps a year ago. Gaines had a 51.6 PFF grade, which was down from his previous two seasons as a starter with the Rams, when he had PFF grades of 67.9 and 59.1 across snap counts of 780 and 731 respectively. Still in his age 28 season, Gaines could bounce back in 2024, but he’ll likely remain a reserve regardless. Gholston, meanwhile, is going into his 12th season in the league and his age 33 season, so he’s probably getting to the end of his line, but he’s been a capable run stopper for most of his career and could remain a capable run stopper in a limited situational role for another season. This is the same group of interior defenders as a year ago, when they all struggled except Vita Vea, but they could get more positive contributions from their young players Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall in 2024.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Buccaneers didn’t retain Devin White in free agency this off-season, after five seasons as an every down linebacker in Tampa, but that isn’t a big loss because he struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade across 893 snaps in 14 games last season. The Buccaneers don’t have a good replacement for him though. In White’s old spot, it will either be KJ Britt, SirVocea Dennis, or JJ Russell, or possibly some combination of the three in a rotation. All three are highly inexperienced.

Dennis was a 5th round pick in 2023 and showed some promise as a rookie, but only across 101 snaps. Britt was a 5th round pick in 2021 and showed some promise on 160 snaps last season, but he has only played 234 total snaps in three seasons in the league. Russell went undrafted in 2022 and has played 117 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. There is some upside here, but it’s also very possible that all of them could struggle in an extended role.

The Buccaneers did bring back Lavonte David as a free agent and he’s been an above average every down linebacker for them for a long-time, but he’s now going into his age 34 season. He still had a 73.4 PFF grade across 956 snaps in 15 games in 2023, his tenth finish over 70 in twelve seasons in the league, all with the Buccaneers. He’s also finished above 60 on PFF in every season in the league, with five seasons above 80. It’s possible he could avoid declining for another season, but at his age, the possibility of a significant decline is a real concern, especially since the rest of the Buccaneers’ linebacking corps is highly inexperienced. They need David to continue playing at a high level to elevate the rest of this position group.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Buccaneers also parted ways with long-time starting cornerback Carlton Davis this off-season. Davis is coming off of a down year with a 58.2 PFF grade across 715 snaps in 12 games and the Buccaneers saved 14.5 million and got a third round pick by trading him to the Lions, but they didn’t really replace him and will be relying on young cornerbacks taking on bigger roles in his absence. Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien, a 2022 5th round pick and a 2023 undrafted free agent, played 784 snaps and 718 snaps respectively last season and will likely see expanded roles in 2024, playing in three cornerback sets along with Jamel Dean, a long-time starter who played 711 snaps while starting all 13 games he played last season.

Izien flashed potential with a 66.8 PFF grade last season, but the fact that he went undrafted a year ago can’t be completely ignored at this point and it wouldn’t surprise me if he regressed in 2024, especially in an expanded role. McCollum, on the other hand, struggled last season with a 52.1 PFF grade, after a 46.3 PFF grade on 278 snaps as a rookie, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he never developed into even a capable starter. Dean, meanwhile, had a 68.3 PFF grade in 2023 and finished above 70 in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, he should continue playing at an above average level in 2024, although it’s worth noting he’s missed at least two games in every season in the league and will probably miss at least some time again in 2024.

The Buccaneers did add some veteran depth at the cornerback position this off-season, signing Tavierre Thomas and Bryce Hall, but it’s likely that neither are real candidates for a starting job. Thomas has PFF grades of 77.6, 70.0, and 72.2 over the past three seasons, but on snap counts of just 639, 409, and 352 and he’s never played more snaps than that in any season in the league. He could see a situational role as a slot specialist, but he doesn’t have much experience playing on the outside. Hall, meanwhile, is a 2020 5th round pick who saw significant action early in his career and was serviceable, with PFF grades of 59.9 and 63.2 on snap counts of 547 and 1,171, but he’s only seen 153 snaps as a reserve over the past two seasons combined. He could probably be a decent starter in a pinch, but he’ll likely remain a reserve to begin the season.

The Buccaneers’ best defensive player is probably safety Antoine Winfield, who excelled with a position leading 91.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023. That was the best season of his career, but the 2020 2nd round pick not a one-year wonder, with PFF grades of 86.1 and 77.8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and he’s only in his age 26 season, so he could easily continue being one of the top safeties in the league in 2024 and for years to come. The Buccaneers rightfully rewarded him with a 4-year, 84.1 million dollar contract this off-season after franchise tagging him, which makes him the highest paid defensive back in the league in terms of average annual salary.

At the other safety spot, free agent acquisition Jordan Whitehead figures to start, after signing for 9 million over 2 years this off-season. Ryan Neal (580 snaps) and Dee Delaney (449 snaps) split snaps opposite Winfield last season and they were an underwhelming duo, with Neal struggling (46.6 PFF grade) and Delaney being average (63.4 PFF grade). It wouldn’t be hard for Whitehead to be an upgrade, after starting all 64 games he’s played in the past four seasons with solid PFF grades of 66.3, 74.9, 66.1, and 68.2 respectively. The Buccaneers also added additional safety depth by drafting Tykee Smith in the 3rd round and he could have a situational role in obvious passing situations. The Buccaneers have some concerns at the cornerback position, but this is a pretty good secondary overall, led by dominant safety Antoine Winfield.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers were a surprising playoff qualifier a year ago, but they could easily take a big step back in terms of win total this season. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Buccaneers were a mediocre team a year ago, even before you take into account their weak schedule. This season, their schedule is tougher, their division is stronger, and their roster is about the same, if not worse than a year ago, especially if quarterback Baker Mayfield regresses, a strong possibility, considering his inconsistent history. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, it seems unlikely this team will qualify for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC South

Atlanta Falcons 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 15, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

The Falcons had a very stable quarterback situation from 2008-2021, with Matt Ryan consistently playing at an above average level, while only missing three total games due to injury across 14 seasons. The Falcons never quite got the supporting cast around him right, so they only made one Super Bowl in that span, which they lost, but that generally wasn’t Ryan’s fault. In fact, even in the season they made the Super Bowl they still had a below average defense, with the team being carried by Ryan in an MVP season.

The Falcons moved on from Ryan two off-seasons ago, trading him to the Colts for a third round pick, which proved to be a smart move, as Ryan went on to play one mediocre season in Indianapolis before retiring, but in the two seasons since losing Ryan, the Falcons have struggled to find an adequate replacement. In their first off-season without Ryan, the Falcons paired veteran journeyman Marcus Mariota with third round rookie Desmond Ridder. Mariota was mediocre while starting the first 13 games of the season and Ridder wasn’t any better when he took over as the starter for the final 4 games of the season.

The next off-season, the Falcons made Ridder their full-time starter, hoping for a second year leap from their young quarterback, and signed veteran Taylor Heinicke as the backup. That second year leap didn’t happen though and Ridder was benched on multiple occasions for Heinicke, who wasn’t much better. In total, the Falcons completed 61.7% of their passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions in 2023, good for a QB rating of 80.5 that ranked 27th in the NFL.

Fed up with mediocrity at the quarterback position and recognizing they were a quarterback away from being the favorite in the weak NFC South, which the Falcons had a shot at winning last season even with poor quarterback play, the Falcons made a big splash signing in free agency this off-season, poaching veteran Kirk Cousins away from the Vikings on a 4-year, 180 million dollar deal that makes him the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual value. The Falcons then traded away Desmond Ridder to the Cardinals in a move that got them more wide receiver depth.

Cousins has completed 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.64 YPA, 252 touchdowns, and 91 interceptions in 136 starts over the past nine seasons, which would be a substantial upgrade under center for the Falcons, but he comes with some risk, now going into his age 36 season and coming off of a 2023 season ended by a torn achilles. Even if Cousins doesn’t decline in 2024, the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid elite quarterback money is concerning.

The only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and still won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Cousins is just below that cap percentage threshold in year one of his contract, but he will almost definitely be above it for the remainder of his deal. Cousins is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league. Adding Cousins makes the Falcons the favorite to win the NFC South and they could even win a playoff game or two in the weak NFC, but it’s hard to imagine them competing at the highest level in Cousins’ tenure in Atlanta, and that’s even assuming he doesn’t decline, as an aging quarterback coming off of a significant injury.

In the draft, the Falcons made the very surprising decision to add another quarterback with their 8th overall pick, taking Michael Penix. In a vacuum, Penix was a good pick there, as he could develop into a franchise quarterback while he’s still on his cheap rookie deal, which would allow the Falcons to load up on talent around him and actually compete at the highest level for a Super Bowl, but when you pair his selection with the Cousins signing, the move is very strange.

Cousins is guaranteed 100 million over the next two seasons, so the Falcons don’t have a clear path to get Penix onto the field until the cheap part of his rookie deal is halfway over, at which point the Falcons will only have one season to evaluate Penix before deciding whether or not to pick up his expensive 5th year option. Penix is also pretty NFL ready as far as quarterback prospects go and, if the Falcons liked him, they could have known that he would be available to them with the 8th overall pick, or by trading up just a couple spots, so the expensive signing of Cousins was pretty unnecessary and the Falcons could have used that money elsewhere, like on defense, which they mostly neglected this off-season.

Additionally, if they liked Cousins enough to give him all that money, they could have used the 8th overall pick on defense, or traded down and gotten multiple defensive players, in an attempt to go all in with an aging veteran under center, rather than using a high draft pick on a player who is unlikely to make much of an impact over the next two seasons unless Cousins gets hurt or struggles so much that he is benched, in spite of his salary. The Falcons’ quarterback room is a lot better than it was a year ago and it’s a lot better than most team’s quarterback rooms, with two starting caliber options and Taylor Heinicke (84.2 QB rating in 29 career starts) still on the roster as an overqualified third quarterback, after taking a pay cut down to just 1.21 million, but from a team building and allocation of resources perspective, the Falcons’ quarterback decisions this off-season were strange.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Prior to selecting Penix in the first round in this year’s draft, the Falcons had used their last three first round picks on offensive skill position players, taking tight end Kyle Pitts 4th overall in 2021, wide receiver Drake London 8th overall in 2022, and running back Bijan Robinson 8th overall in 2023, but none of them have been able to reach their potential because of the Falcons’ quarterback situation and, subsequently, because of the run heavy nature of the Falcons’ offense over the past two seasons, with 1,081 rush attempts to 945 pass attempts combined in 2022 and 2023.

In 2024, Pitts and London will be the centerpieces of the Falcons’ upgraded passing game, while Robinson figures to have a big passing game role as well, as he’s a very talented pass catcher for a running back, finishing with a 58/487/4 slash line and 1.16 yards per route run as a rookie, when he was third on the team in targets with 86. Pitts came into the league as one of the best pass catching tight end prospects in NFL history and was the highest drafted tight end ever. He burst onto the scene as a rookie with a 68/1026/1 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average in 17 games in the final season of the Matt Ryan era, but, as the Falcons quarterback play has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, so has Pitts’ production, as he’s finished with slash lines of 28/356/2 in 10 games and 53/667/3 in 17 games in 2022 and 2023, with a yards per route run average of 1.51 over the past two seasons combined.

Now with a significantly upgraded quarterback room and still only in his age 24 season with a massive upside, Pitts should have plenty of bounce back potential and still has time to develop into one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league for years to come. Drake London also has a huge upside, after posting slash lines of 72/866/4 and 69/905/2 with a combined 1.96 yards per route run average in his first two seasons in the league. Still only in his age 23 season, with an improved quarterback room and a more pass heavy offense, London has a huge statistical upside in 2024.

The Falcons also made a significant financial investment in another wide receiver in free agency, signing ex-Bear Darnell Mooney to a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal. Mooney had a thousand yard year in 2021, with a 81/1055/4 slash line, but he wasn’t that efficient that season, averaging just 1.72 yards per route run and 7.54 yards per target and, in his other three seasons in the league, he only has 1.18 yards per route run and 6.99 yards per target, while averaging just 513 yards per season. Mooney never had good quarterback play with the Bears and, still only in his age 27 season, could have significant upside on a better offense in Atlanta, but the Falcons are guaranteeing him 27 million over the next two seasons, which is a lot of money to risk on the hope that Mooney will be significantly better in a better situation.

Behind Pitts, London, and Mooney, the rest of this receiving corps is thin and unsettled. Wide receivers Van Jefferson (356 snaps), Mack Hollins (343 snaps), and Scott Miller (267 snaps), as well as tight ends Jonnu Smith (653 snaps) and MyCole Pruitt (401 snaps) all played significant snaps last season and weren’t brought back for 2024. They weren’t a great group of supporting pass catchers, but Hollins and Pruitt averaged 1.56 and 1.75 yards per route run respectively in limited roles, Smith averaged 1.55 yards per route run and was third on the team in receiving yardage with a 50/582/3 slash line, and, while the Falcons made some additions to this receiving corps this off-season, they didn’t replace all of them and, as a result, have a pretty top-heavy group.

The third wide receiver job will likely either go to KhaDarel Hodge, a veteran who played 370 snaps for the Falcons last season, or Rondale Moore, a 2021 2nd round pick who the Falcons acquired from the Cardinals in exchange for Desmond Ridder. Hodge had just a 1.27 yards per route run average in a limited role last season and has a career 1.28 yards per route run average with 57 catches in 89 career games and a career high of 14 catches in a season, so Moore is probably the favorite for the job.

Moore is also a pretty underwhelming option though, as he hasn’t lived up to the potential he had when the Cardinals drafted him 49th overall three years ago, averaging just 1.17 yards per route run and 400 yards per season. He’s only in his age 24 season and could still have untapped upside, but, even still, he’s underwhelming as a #3 wide receiver. The Falcons also used a 6th round pick on wide receiver Casey Washington, who could work his way into a role as the season goes on, but he’s a pretty underwhelming option too.

At tight end, the Falcons signed ex-49ers backup tight end Charlie Woerner to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal and he’ll be the #2 tight end behind Pitts, but he has just a 0.55 yards per route run average in his career with 11 catches in 65 games and will mostly just be used as a solid blocker. Expect the Falcons to funnel targets to Pitts, London, Mooney, and the running back Robinson, in a top heavy receiving corps that has a high upside, but that also would be in significant trouble if any of their top pass catchers missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Falcons won’t run the ball as much this season as they did a year ago, when they ranked third in the NFL in team carries with 522, but that will probably come much more at the expense of Tyler Allgeier, who had 186 carries a year ago, than Bijan Robinson, who had 214, and Robinson also figures to be more productive in the passing game than he was a year ago, due to the Falcons improved quarterback situation and increased passing volume. Robinson had a 4.52 YPC average as a rookie and has the upside to become one of the top all-around backs in the league in his second season in 2024, now on a much better offense than a year ago.

Allgeier only averaged 3.67 YPC last season, down significantly from 4.93 YPC on 210 carries as a 5th round rookie in 2022, but that was mostly because he didn’t have as many big plays, going from 13 carries of 15+ yards in 2022, which went for 316 yards (30.5% of his total) to just 3 carries of 15+ yards in 2023, which went for 72 yards (10.5% of his total). In terms of carry success rate, Allgeier only dropped from 51.9% to 48.4%. Allgeier also has a decent 1.16 yards per route run average in his career. Robinson is the better back and figures to be a true feature back in 2024, but Allgeier is a good backup to have.

The Falcons won’t need much depth behind Robinson and Allgeier, but they did use a 6th round pick on Jase McClellan, who will give them an insurance policy if either Robinson or Allgeier miss significant time with injury. He would probably be underwhelming if forced into a significant role in year one, but he’s not a bad 3rd option to have, behind a talented top-two. Overall, this is one of the best running back rooms in the NFL.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Falcons’ offensive line has been the strength of this offense for the past few years and they bring back all five of their starters from a year ago, including three who have been starters for the Falcons for at least five straight seasons. Left guard Matthew Bergeron is the newest member of this offensive line and was also the Falcons’ worst offensive line starter a year ago, as the 2023 2nd round pick had a 59.1 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie last season. He has the upside to be significantly better in year two though and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he took a step forward and was at least a capable starter in 2024.

Center Drew Dalman is the second newest member of this offensive line. A 2021 4th round pick, Dalman was a backup as a rookie, but has started all 31 games he’s played in the two seasons since, jumping from a solid 65.9 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2022 to a 82.3 PFF grade in 2023, excelling as a run blocker. Dalman is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and could regress a little bit this season, but he’s also only going into his age 26 season and could have permanently turned a corner as a player. Even if he hasn’t, he has a good chance to remain an above average starter in 2024 and beyond.

The other three starters on this offensive line, left tackle Jake Matthews, right guard Chris Lindstrom, and right tackle Kaleb McGary are all former first round picks by the Falcons, Matthews going 6th in 2014 and Lindstrom and McGary going 14th and 31st respectively in 2019. Matthews has been highly consistent in his career, finishing above 70 in PFF in each of the past nine seasons in the league, starting with his second season in the league in 2015. His 71.2 PFF grade in 2023 was actually the worst since his rookie season and, now going into his age 32 season, it’s possible he’s on the decline, but he’s starting from a pretty high base point and has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter for another season.

Lindstrom is the best of the bunch, impressing early on in his career with PFF grades of 66.6 and 77.1 in his first two seasons in the league, before developing into one of the best guards in the league over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 83.7, 95.0, and 87.6. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, Lindstrom should remain one of the best guards in the league in 2024 and beyond. McGary, on the other hand, took a few years to develop, receiving mediocre grades of 53.0, 64.3, and 62.8 across his first three seasons in the league, actually getting benched on one occasion, but he took a big step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2022, finishing with a 86.6 PFF grade and didn’t take a big step back in 2023, with another impressive grade of 75.5. He seems to have permanently turned a corner as an above average starter and, still only in his age 29 season, he should have at least another prime season left in him.

The Falcons’ depth options remain the same as last year. Their best backup is tackle Storm Norton, who had a 68.3 PFF grade in three starts last season. Norton was a starter earlier in his career, making 15 starts in 2021, and he wasn’t bad with a 60.3 PFF grade, but he’s best off as a good swing tackle rather than a starter. At guard and center, the Falcons’ top reserves are less impressive, as backup center Ryan Neuzil is a 2021 undrafted free agent who was underwhelming with a 55.3 PFF grade in the first four starts of his career in 2023, when Dalman missed time with injury, while backup guard Kyle Hinton is a 2020 7th round pick who has played just 97 snaps in his career. Overall, the Falcons have an above average starting five on the offensive line with their biggest concern being depth.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons had defensive needs that they didn’t address this off-season, as their big free agent signing and their first round draft pick were both quarterbacks, leaving them little resources for the rest of the roster. The Falcons ranked 24th in defensive DVOA a year ago and there is reason to believe they’ve gotten worse on that side of the ball since then. One of those reasons is the loss of Calais Campbell, who had a 80.0 PFF grade on 712 snaps last season, excelling against the run and adding 6.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate, while splitting time between the edge and the interior in pass rush situations.

The Falcons also lost veteran edge defender Bud Dupree this off-season, although that isn’t as big of a loss, as he had a 56.0 PFF grade across 725 snaps, while pressuring the quarterback at just a 8.8% rate. To replace Dupree and Campbell’s edge snaps, the Falcons used a 3rd round pick on Bralen Trice, added veteran James Smith-Williams in free agency, and will probably give bigger snap counts to 2022 2nd round pick Arnold Ebiketie, 2023 3rd round pick Zach Harrison, and 2023 3rd round pick DeAngelo Malone, who saw snap counts of just 385, 343, and 3 respectively a year ago.

Ebiketie has the most upside of the aforementioned players. Not only was he the highest drafted of the bunch, but he has been pretty decent in limited action in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 61.4 across 901 total snaps, while totaling 8.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. Expect him to play a career high in snaps in 2024 and he could easily be at least a capable starter, with the upside for more. Harrison was also decent in his limited role as a rookie in 2023, with a 63.0 PFF overall grade, but he was much more effective against the run than as a pass rusher, with just a 7.9% pressure rate. He’ll also likely see an expanded role in 2024, but he could still primarily be a base package run stopper who comes off the field in obvious passing situations.

DeAngelo Malone, on the other end, has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, playing 219 snaps and managing just a 8.2% pressure rate. He still could have some untapped upside, but is mostly only in the mix for a role based on where he was drafted and the Falcons’ lack of depth at the edge defender position. James Smith-Williams, meanwhile, has played 437 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but the 2020 7th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, while totaling just a career 7.2% pressure rate, and he is unlikely to have much, if any untapped upside left at this point. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see both of them play behind the rookie Bralen Trice, even if Trice is raw and could struggle in a significant rookie year role.

Veteran Lorenzo Carter remains and will probably continue to have a similar role as last season, when he played just 431 snaps. Carter has been a decent player throughout his career, with PFF grades over 60 in all six seasons in the league on an average of 559 snaps per season, including a 67.0 grade in 2023, but he’s also never finished above 70.7 for a season, which came back in 2019, and he’s a better run defender than pass rusher, with just 21.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in 83 career games. The Falcons have some young players with upside, but overall this looks like an underwhelming position group, one that could have benefited from a more significant investment in the off-season.

Grade: C+

Interior Defender

The biggest investment the Falcons made on defense this off-season was using their second round pick on interior defender Ruke Orhorhoro. He will help replace Calais Campbell’s interior snaps, as well as the snaps left behind by Albert Huggins, who won’t be missed after a 47.8 PFF grade across 317 snaps in 2023. Orhorhoro profiles as a future starter and should be a useful rotational player as a rookie. The Falcons should also get a healthier year out of Grady Jarrett, who was limited to 318 snaps in 8 games by injury in 2023.

Jarrett still had a 70.1 PFF grade in 2023 and he’s finished above 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including seven seasons above 70, and he’s totaled 34 sacks, 85 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 135 career games, while playing the run at an above average level as well. However, Jarrett is now going into his age 31 season, so he might not play at the same level in 2024 as he did in 2023. Jarrett has already seemed to decline from his prime, when he had four straight seasons above 80 on PFF from 2017-2020, before maxing out at 71.3 over the past three seasons, and he could decline further in 2024. He should play more snaps than a year ago, but he might not play at the same level.

David Onyemata is also getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, with an 83.3 PFF grade across 594 snaps in 2023, the 2nd highest PFF grade of his 8-year career, but it seems likely he won’t be quite as good again in 2024. He’s starting from a pretty high base point, exceeding 70 on PFF in five of the past seven seasons, playing the run well and totaling 27 sacks, 47 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate in 104 games over that stretch, but his age is becoming a big concern.

Onyemata, Jarrett, and Orhororo will be the Falcons’ top-3 interior defenders this season, but there is still room for deep reserve snaps behind them, which will likely to go Ta’Quon Graham, who played 364 snaps in 2023, and/or Brandon Dorius, another interior defender they drafted this year, selected in the 4th round. Graham, a 2021 5th round pick, has played 381 snaps per season in three seasons in the league and has mostly been unspectacular, playing the run decently, but managing just a 4.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Dorius, meanwhile, is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one. The Falcons have an accomplished interior defender duo of David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett and a relatively high draft pick in Ruke Orhorhoro behind them, but Onyemata and Jarrett are getting older and Orhorhoro is only a rookie, so there are still some concerns at this position.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The personnel remains the same in the linebacking corps, but the Falcons should get a healthier season out of Troy Andersen. Andersen started week 1 and week 3 last season and played 139 of a possible 147 snaps in those two games, with a game missed due to injury in between, but then he suffered a season-ending injury after week 3. He’s not a guarantee to get his every down job back in 2024 though, as backup Nate Landman significantly outplayed him in his absence, with a PFF grade of 72.0 across 809 snaps, especially excelling against the run. Landman went undrafted in 2022 and played just 22 snaps as a rookie, so his impressive 2023 season kind of came out of nowhere and there’s a chance he regresses in 2024 or cedes the job back to Andersen, but Landman should at least be a high level backup.

Andersen, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and came into the league with a lot more upside than Landman, but he struggled with a 40.2 PFF grade on 481 snaps as a part-time player in his rookie season and wasn’t much better in two games before getting hurt in 2023, receiving a 50.6 grade from PFF. He still has upside and could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but Landman still seems like the better option to start, even if he regresses from his surprisingly impressive 2023 campaign. Another option is the Falcons platoon the two linebackers, with Landman playing in base packages, maximizing his abilities against the run, and Andersen as a sub package linebacker who plays in obvious passing situations. However it shakes out, it seems unlikely that either one will be as good in 2024 as Landman was in 2023.

Kaden Elliss remains as the other starter, locked in after an impressive 2023 season in which he had a 75.4 PFF grade across 1,082 snaps, playing well in coverage, against the run, and as a blitzer. That was a career high in snaps for the 2019 7th round pick, but he had a 81.5 PFF grade across 632 snaps in 2022, so his impressive season in an every down role in 2023 didn’t come out of nowhere. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season and relatively proven at this point, Elliss should remain an above average every down player for at least one more season in 2024. The Falcons also used a 5th round pick on JD Bertrand to give themselves even more depth in an overall pretty talented linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback is another position of need the Falcons could have addressed this off-season, but didn’t. Top cornerback AJ Terrell had a 74.6 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and slot specialist Dee Alford also had a solid grade at 70.0, across 531 snaps, but he’s only an option on the slot and the other options the Falcons tried outside opposite Terrell all struggled last season, with Jeff Okudah, Clark Phillips, Mike Hughes, and Tre Flowers playing 596 snaps, 571 snaps, 333 snaps, and 200 snaps respectively and finishing with PFF grades in the 50s.

The Falcons only added Antonio Hamilton and Kevin King to the mix this off-season. Hamilton has had decent PFF grades of 65.4, 68.5, and 64.7 over the past three seasons, but only on snap counts of 313, 420, and 559 respectively, with the latter being a career high for the 8-year veteran, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he’s nothing more than a backup option, while King is a former 2nd round pick, but he hasn’t played in two full seasons due to injuries and, before that, missed 29 games in the previous five seasons, while finishing below 60 on PFF in three of those five seasons, so he’s nothing more than a flier who could easily fail to make the final roster.

Clark Phillips and Mike Hughes remain from last season and the former is probably the favorite to start outside opposite Terrell. Phillips wasn’t horrible last season, with a 59.0 PFF grade in a part-time role, while starting five of the seven games he played, and he was only a 4th round rookie, so he could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but he could also be further exposed in a much bigger role in 2024. Hughes, meanwhile, is a former 1st round pick bust of the Minnesota Vikings, who has played just 387 snaps per season in six seasons in the league with four teams, while finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seasons, including the previous two. He’d likely only be a starting option if Phillips struggles and, in that case, Hughes would likely also struggle in a starting role.

Dee Alford was impressive on the slot last season and also had a decent 64.8 PFF grade across 248 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2022, but he’s probably too small at 5-11 175 to hold up in a significant role outside, so he’ll remain a solid slot specialist at best, albeit still an inexperienced one. Fortunately, the Falcons do at least have one good outside cornerback in AJ Terrell, a 2020 1st round pick who has received PFF grades of 60.8, 82.6, 63.9, and 74.6 in four seasons in the league, while starting all 61 games played. Only in his age 26 season in 2024, he should remain an above average starter and could potentially have more untapped upside.

The Falcons’ best defensive player last season was probably safety Jessie Bates, who excelled with a 90.6 PFF grade, 2nd in the NFL among safeties. It wasn’t Bates’ first season as an elite safety, but he has been pretty inconsistent in his career, with PFF grades of 79.9, 90.1, 76.8, and 90.6 in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 respectively and grades of 61.2 and 56.1 in 2019 and 2021 respectively. He’s still only in his age 28 season and could repeat last season’s dominant performance, but he could also regress, perhaps significantly.

At the other safety spot, Richie Grant and DeMarcco Hellams will compete to start. A 2021 2nd round pick, Grant has started 32 games over the past two seasons, but he struggled with a 51.5 PFF grade in 2023 and lost his starting job late in the season to Hellams, even though Hellams was just a 7th round rookie. Hellams wasn’t bad in his limited action, with a 65.2 PFF grade across 370 snaps, but Grant was better in 2022 than he was in 2023, with a 64.9 PFF grade, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took his starting job back and bounced back in 2024. If Hellams wins the job, he could continue being a capable starter, but he could also struggle, because he’s inexperienced and a projection to a bigger role. This isn’t a bad secondary, with a pair of high level talents in AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates, but it’s a bit of a top-heavy group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Falcons significantly upgraded their quarterback room this off-season by adding Kirk Cousins and then Michael Penix behind him, which should unlock an offense that has a lot of talent around the quarterback. However, Cousins isn’t an elite quarterback and the Falcons still have too many holes, especially on defense, to be considered a true Super Bowl contender. They should be considered the favorite to win the weak NFC South and, in the weaker NFC, they have a good chance to win a playoff game or two, which is a lot more than they’ve accomplished in recent years, but they’re not on the short list of teams who could win it all.

Update: The Falcons upgraded their defense with the additions of Matt Judon and Justin Simmons. They’re still not a top contender, but they could win a lot of regular season games, given that they have probably the weakest schedule in the league.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC South

New Orleans Saints 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 15, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Quarterback

When long-time Saints quarterback and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, the Saints were left in a tough situation. They had consistently borrowed future cap space to keep as much talent around Brees as possible in his later years, leading to a league best 49-15 regular season record from 2017-2020, but just three playoff victories and no Super Bowl appearances. Without Brees, the Saints could have opted to blow it up, go through a couple tough years, and reset their cap for the future.

Instead, they opted to continue kicking the can down the road on their cap issues, in an attempt to remain relevant in the short-term, continuing to borrow future cap space. Now with three seasons in the books without Brees, that appears to have been the wrong choice. They haven’t been bad the past three seasons, but they haven’t been good either, combining for a 25-24 record with no playoff appearances and the future doesn’t look promising.

The Saints had the 3rd oldest roster in the league in 2023, currently have the 6th oldest roster in the league heading into 2024, and are projected to be almost 100 million dollars over the cap in 2025, which will get increasingly difficult to continue kicking down the road, severely limiting their ability to field a talented roster in the future, especially as their core continues to age. It hasn’t helped that their recent drafts have not been good, especially at the top. Of the seven players they selected in the top-50 from 2020-2023, just one of them, wide receiver Chris Olave, played significant snaps in 2023 and finished above average on PFF. As a result of that, the Saints don’t have much in the way of promising young talent on cheap rookie contracts.

The Saints’ middling performance over the past few years has also kept them out of position to take a potential franchise quarterback atop the draft. Their initial attempts to replace Brees with cheaper veterans like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Trevor Siemian failed and, without the ability to add draft a promising quarterback, the Saints instead gave a big contract to aging veteran Derek Carr, who heads into his age 33 season in 2024, the second season of a 4-year, 150 million dollar deal.

Carr is not a bad quarterback, completing 64.9% of his passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 242 touchdowns, and 107 interceptions in 159 starts in 10 seasons in the league, including 68.4% completion, 7.08 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s not the kind of quarterback that can elevate a middling roster and he’s not getting any younger either, so it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point. The Saints have a pair of young quarterbacks behind him on the depth chart, 2023 4th round pick Jake Haener, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2024 5th round pick Spencer Rattler, but neither was remotely a high draft pick and it remains to be seen if either of them can even develop into a quality backup, let alone a potential future starter. Overall, it looks like the Saints are set for another season of middling at best play in 2024, with no long-term direction.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One of the Saints’ high draft picks that hasn’t yet lived up to their draft slot in recent years is left tackle Trevor Penning, who has been limited to 541 snaps and six starts in two seasons since going 19th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, due to a combination of poor performance and injury. In fact, he’s been so underwhelming that the Saints are seemingly giving up on him already, using the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft on Taliese Fuaga. It wouldn’t be hard for Fuaga to be an upgrade on Andrus Peat, who had a 60.2 PFF grade as the Saints’ primary left tackle last season, before signing with the Raiders this off-season, but Fuaga is still just a rookie and could have growing pains in year one.

It’s possible Penning could still earn a starting job, either at left tackle, with Fuaga moving to guard, which he has the versatility to play, or Penning could potentially move to guard himself, to replace the now retired James Hurst, who had a 58.7 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Penning has a lot of talent and is still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s too soon to completely write him off, but it’s very possible he’d continue struggling even if he did win a starting job and it’s more likely the Saints view him as the swing tackle now, behind Fuaga and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk.

Ramczyk has been a talented starter for years, finishing above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, with five seasons over 80, but, like most of the Saints’ talented players, he’s getting up there in age, going into his age 30 season in 2024 and it’s possible he’s already started to decline, as his 73.5 PFF grade in 2023 was a career worst. He would be declining from a high base point and he’s not totally over the hill yet, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best days were behind him at this point or if he continued declining.

If Penning doesn’t start, the left guard job will likely go to 2023 4th round pick Nick Saldeveri, who played just 18 snaps as a rookie, or mediocre veteran Lucas Patrick, who is in his age 31 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, including a 50.5 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Both Saldeveri and Patrick would almost definitely struggle as starters in 2024 and it’s possible both of them, along with possibly Penning, all see starts as the Saints try to find an answer at the position, an answer that’s probably not on the roster.

Right guard Cesar Ruiz is another recent high draft pick that hasn’t really panned out. Ruiz has started 56 of the 62 games he’s played since the Saints selected him 24th overall in 2020, but he’s finished in the 50s on PFF in all four seasons, including a career worst 51.2 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Saints didn’t pick up his 5th year option for 2024, but they did extend him on a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal at the beginning of last season, which seems like an overpay, given that he’s the 17th highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could have untapped potential, but he also could continue struggling.

Center Erik McCoy is a highlight on this offensive line, as the 2019 2nd round pick has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (74 starts), including three seasons above 70. His 79.4 PFF grade in 2023 was a career best and he’s not necessarily going to be that good again in 2024, but he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he’s very much in the prime of his career, and he should remain at least an above average starter. The Saints have a couple bright spots on the offensive line in Erik McCoy and Ryan Ramczyk, but the latter is going into his 30s, and the rest of the group is underwhelming, with a rookie left tackle and likely below average starters at both guard positions.

Update: Ramczyk is not expected to play this season and may retire because of a nagging knee injury. This will hurt the Saints significantly and hurts their already underwhelming projection overall and on the offensive line, as Ramczyk was one of their best players and probably their best offensive lineman and now the Saints will have to start Trevor Penning in his absence.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receiver Chris Olave is the only high draft pick the Saints have made in the past few years that has panned out. Luckily, the 2022 #11 overall pick has panned out in a big way, with slash lines of 87/1123/5 and 72/1044/4 and a combined 2.23 yards per route run average over his first two seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 24 season, Olave’s best days could still be ahead of him and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2024 was his best season yet.

The Saints also found a steal in the 2022 draft with undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed flashed potential as a rookie with a 28/487/2 slash line and a 2.59 yards per route run average in a limited role. He wasn’t able to keep up that level of efficiency in a starting role in 2022, but he still had a solid season with a 46/719/5 slash line and a 1.67 yards per route run. He still only played 604 snaps last season, 40.3 snaps per game in 15 games, which was actually behind Michael Thomas, who averaged 49.0 snaps per game in 10 games. In five games when Thomas was out and Shaheed played, Shaheed averaged 42.8 snaps per game and had a 18/209/2 slash line, 61/711/7 over a 17-game season. With Thomas no longer with the team, Shaheed is likely to see a higher snap count and more receiving production in 2024.

Thomas only averaged 1.38 yards per route run last season with a 39/448/1 slash line, so he won’t be missed too much, but the Saints don’t have a good replacement for him. The third receiver job will likely go to 2023 6th round pick AT Perry, who had a 12/246/4 slash line and a 1.18 yards per route run average as a rookie, or Cedrick Wilson, a veteran who has been a mediocre reserve for most of his career, averaging 1.35 yards per route run and only surpassing 300 yards receiving once in six seasons in the league. Both are likely to be underwhelming options, even if they ultimately end up splitting snaps. The Saints also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Bub Means, who could work his way into a role down the stretch, though he would likely also struggle.

At tight end, Juwan Johnson (555 snaps), Foster Moreau (549 snaps), and Taysom Hill (425 snaps) all played roles last season and should play similar roles in 2023. Johnson was their primary receiving tight end, leading all Saints tight ends in catches, yards, and touchdowns. He only had a 37/368/4 slash line with a 1.19 yards per route run average though, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. He did have a better receiving year in 2022, with a 42/508/7 slash line and a 1.39 yards per route run average, so he could be better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but the 2020 undrafted free agent has been underwhelming for most of his career, with a career 1.17 yards per route run average. The undersized 6-4 231 pounder is also a poor blocker.

Tayson Hill also primarily played in passing situations, although he’s a unique player. Not only did he have a 33/291/2 slash line with a 1.30 yards per route run average as a receiver, but he also carried the ball 81 times for 401 yards and 4 touchdowns (4.95 YPC) and threw 11 passes, completing 6 of them for 83 yards and a touchdown. Hill should have a similar role in 2024. The ultimate hybrid player throughout his career, Hill has 76 catches, 398 carries, and 298 pass attempts in the past six seasons, while averaging 346 snaps per season. Hill is now going into his age 34 season, so his athleticism could start to decline, but he should still be a useful situational player.

Foster Moreau, meanwhile, is mostly a blocking specialist, finishing the 2023 season with just a 21/193/1 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average. Moreau has mostly been a blocking specialist in five seasons in the league, but he’s a mediocre all-around tight end, averaging 1.25 yards per route run and mostly receiving mediocre run blocking grades. The Saints have a good #1 receiver in Chris Olave and a promising #2 receiver in Rashid Shaheed, but this is a top heavy receiving corps, with underwhelming tight end options and a lack of wide receiver depth.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Feature back Alvin Kamara is used heavily in the passing game as well, as he had 86 targets, a 75/466/1 slash line, and a 1.73 yards per route run average in just 13 games last season. He’s had similar passing game usage throughout his career, averaging 91 targets and a 72/603/3 slash line per season in seven seasons in the league, with a career 1.96 yards per route run average. He also has 1,315 carries for 5,829 yards and 54 touchdowns (4.43 YPC) as a runner in his career.

That being said, Kamara averaged a career low 3.86 YPC on 180 carries last season though, along with a career low 2.51 yards per carry after contact, a career low 5.42 yards per target, and a career low 6.21 yards per catch, and now he heads into his age 29 season with 1,820 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to slow down significantly, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to have underwhelming averages. Like many of the Saints’ top players, Kamara is getting up there in age and could be past his prime.

The Saints used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on a potential future replacement for Kamara in Kendre Miller. Miller was 4th on the team in carries as a rookie with just 41, behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill, but Miller was limited to 8 games by injuries and, now healthier and in his second season in the league, he should see an expanded role, probably at the expense of Williams, who averaged just 2.89 YPC to Miller’s 3.80 YPC in 2023. Miller also flashed potential as a pass catcher with a 10/117/0 slash line and a 2.17 yards per route run average and he could have an expanded role as a receiver as well in 2024.

Jamaal Williams has been better in the past than he was last season, but his career average is just 3.88 YPC on 1,021 carries and he’s an underwhelming pass catcher, with a career average of 1.02 yards per route run. He has a solid 50.4% carry success rate in his career, but has managed just 21 carries over 15+ yards in his career, so he’s best as a short yardage specialist. He’s also going into his age 29 season now and his best days could be behind him. If it wasn’t for his 3.85 million dollar salary being guaranteed, the Saints likely would have moved on from him this off-season. This isn’t a bad backfield, but feature back Alvin Kamara seems to be slowing down, Jamaal Williams is just a short yardage specialist, and promising young running back Kendre Miller is still inexperienced.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints also have many aging key players on defense. Edge defender Cameron Jordan has been one of their best defensive players for years and is coming off of a solid 2023 season in which he had a 73.5 PFF grade on 770 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and his 2023 PFF grade was his lowest since 2014. In his prime from 2015-2021, Jordan exceeded 80 on PFF in all seven seasons, excelling against the run and adding 78 sacks, 80 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 112 games, but he hasn’t been the same player the past two seasons. His run defense has remained impressive, but he has managed just 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 33 games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline even further in 2024, both as a run stopper and a pass rusher, given his advanced age.

Fellow starter Carl Granderson is at least in his prime in his age 28 season, but he’s also a better run stopper than pass rusher. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a few years to develop, before posting a 80.4 PFF grade on 480 snaps in 2022 and a 74.1 PFF grade on 874 snaps in 2023, but he has totaled just 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 33 games over those two seasons. He would be best as a pure base package player who plays sparingly in obvious passing situations.

With Jordan aging and Granderson being a middling at best pass rusher, the Saints upgraded this position group with the one major free agent signing they could afford this off-season, bringing in Chase Young on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young is only in his age 25 season and was the #2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s consistently had durability problems, missing 24 games in four seasons in the league, while never once playing in every game, which is why his 5th year option was declined and he hit free agency this off-season.

Young has been effective when on the field, exceeding 70 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, playing the run at a high level and adding 16.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 43 games, and he has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy for a whole season and put it all together, but because he’s only on a one-year deal, his contract doesn’t have any long-term upside. Even if he plays well this season, it will be for a Saints team that is unlikely to go on a deep playoff run and then the Saints would have to pay a higher price to keep him long-term next off-season, one they’re highly unlikely to be able to afford, given their cap situation.

The Saints have attempted to find a long-term replacement for Jordan in the draft, using a 2021 1st round pick on Payton Turner and a 2023 2nd round pick on Isaiah Foskey, but both have been very underwhelming thus far in their careers. Turner has played just 340 snaps in three seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, while Foskey was unable to earn a role as a rookie, playing just 84 nondescript snaps. Foskey is still only going in his second season in the league and could take a step forward in year two and Turner may still have some theoretical upside as well, but Turner is running out of time to make good on that upside and both would need to take a big step forward to even be useful rotational players in 2024.

With Young being added to the mix this off-season, Turner and Foskey will compete for deep reserve roles with veteran Tanoh Kpassagnon, who was decently effective on a snap count of 406 in 2023, receiving a 67.7 PFF grade and totaling 3.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher. However, that was the first season of his 7-year veteran that he received a grade above 60 from PFF and exceeded 400 snaps played in the same season and he now heads into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wasn’t as effective in 2024 as he was last season. This is actually a pretty strong position group overall, but Cameron Jordan is aging, Chase Young is injury prone, Carl Granderson is much better against the run than as a pass rusher, and none of their depth options are guaranteed to be effective.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Another recent high draft pick that hasn’t panned out yet for the Saints is interior defender Bryan Bresee, a first round pick in 2023. Bresee was a solid pass rusher as a rookie with 4.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate, but he was horrendous against the run and, as a result, had an overall grade of 45.5 from PFF across 539 total snaps. Breese is still only going into his second season in the league and has plenty of time to make good on his upside, but he would need to take a big step forward against the run in 2024 to be a reliable starter.

Nathan Shepherd also struggled in 2023, with a 47.5 PFF grade on 593 snaps. That’s not a surprise, as that was a career high in snaps for the 6-year veteran. Shepherd has been better in the past in smaller roles, but the Saints don’t have much of a choice but to give him a big role again in 2024 and, on top of that, he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it would be a surprise if he didn’t continue struggling this season. He wasn’t a bad pass rusher with 3 sacks, 5 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate last season, but, like Bresee, he also struggled mightily against the run.

Khalen Saunders was the Saints’ best all-around interior defender by default last season, with a 61.6 PFF grade on 522 snaps, holding up decently against the run and adding a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. His 2023 performance wasn’t bad, but it’s concerning when he’s your best interior defender. A 3rd round pick in 2019 by the Chiefs, Saunders took a few years to develop, but he also had a 60.2 PFF grade on 421 snaps in 2022 and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he should continue being a capable all-around player in 2024.

Depth behind the Saints’ top-3 interior defenders is also a big concern. The Saints used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Khristian Boyd, but he would almost definitely struggle if he played a significant rookie year role. They also added veteran Kendal Vickers in free agency, but he’s played just 602 snaps in the past four seasons, while finishing below 50 on PFF in all four seasons. With more depth on the edge than the interior, the Saints will probably use three defensive ends together in sub packages frequently, with one of them lined up in the interior. Unless they get a breakout year from 2023 1st round Bryan Breese, expect the Saints’ interior defender group to be very underwhelming in 2024.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Top linebacker Demario Davis is also getting up there in age, going into his age 35 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, with a 89.6 PFF grade across 1,074 snaps in 2024, the second best season-long PFF grade of his career and his seventh straight season over 70, but he could decline significantly at any point even his advanced age and if it happens in 2024 that would be a big blow to this defense. Pete Werner was the Saints’ other every down linebacker in 2023, but he wasn’t nearly as good, with a 57.5 PFF grade across 919 snaps.

A 2021 2nd round pick, Werner showed promise in smaller roles in his first two seasons in the league, with a 79.9 PFF grade across 394 snaps as a rookie and a 64.7 PFF grade across 596 snaps in 2022, but he couldn’t translate that to a bigger role in 2023. He’s only going into his age 25 season though, so he could still have untapped upside and take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2024. With Demario Davis likely to regress at least somewhat, the Saints will need Werner to step up to compensate, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Saints signed Willie Gay to a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season to provide competition for Werner or to serve as the third linebacker in base packages if Werner keeps his job. A 3rd round pick in 2020, Gay has shown some promise in his career, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in two of four seasons in the league, while maxing out at 625 snaps in a season and averaging 484 snaps per season. He’s still only in his age 26 season and could have untapped upside, but he’s coming off of a 2023 season in which he had a 53.3 PFF grade across his career high in snaps, which is why he had to settle for a cheap one-year deal in free agency.

The Saints also drafted Jaylan Ford in the 5th round of this year’s draft to give them more depth and a potential long-term successor for Davis, but he’s unlikely to see many snaps as a rookie and would likely struggle if he did. Demario Davis significantly elevates an otherwise middling linebacking corps, with both Pete Werner and Willie Gay being underwhelming options, but Davis’ age is becoming a big concern and the Saints would be in trouble defensively if he declined significantly this season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Safety Tyrann Mathieu is another talented player the Saints have who is getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, his 11th straight season above 60 on PFF and his 7th season above 70, but that was the third best single season grade of his career and it would be a surprise if he was able to repeat that again in 2024, given his age. He should still remain at least an above average starter even if he does decline, but any noticeable decline from him would be a hit to this secondary and his age is becoming a significant concern.

Mathieu will start next to Jordan Howden, who was decent in 567 snaps (7 starts) in 2023, with a 67.0 PFF grade, despite being just a 5th round rookie. Marcus Maye was supposed to be their primary starter opposite Mathieu last season, but he was limited to 7 games by injuries and suspension and he was mediocre anyway, with a 57.6 PFF grade. With Maye gone, the only real competition Howden has for a starting job is Johnathan Abram, but Abram is probably not a real candidate to start.

Abram was a first round pick by the Raiders in 2019, but he’s been a major bust, finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 57.1 PFF grade in just 209 snaps last season. Now in his age 28 season, it’s unlikely Abram has any untapped upside, so he will remain a backup caliber player and a mediocre one at that. Howden is still a projection to being a season-long starter and it’s possible he regresses and shows why he wasn’t a high draft pick, but he’s the best option the Saints have opposite Mathieu.

At cornerback, Marshon Lattimore remains their de facto #1 cornerback. He’s relatively young for a core player on this team, only in his age 28 season, but he’s had a lot of injuries in his career, missing 25 games in seven seasons in the league, including 17 over the past two seasons combined, and those injuries might have permanently sapped his abilities somewhat. He finished above 70 on PFF in three of his first five seasons in the league, but he’s fallen to 64.7 and 67.4 over the past two seasons respectively. He’s young enough that he has bounce back potential in 2024 if he can stay healthy and if injuries haven’t permanently sapped his abilities, but those are big ifs, so it’s very possible he remains a decent, but unspectacular starter who is likely to miss significant time at some point.

Fortunately, Isaac Yiadom and Paulson Adebo had impressive seasons last year to make up for Lattimore’s injuries and regression. Yiadom had an 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps, while Adebo had a 78.6 PFF grade across 948 snaps. Yiadom is no longer with the team though, signing with the 49ers in free agency, while Adebo is a one-year wonder who could regress. Adebo was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and is only going into his age 25 season, so he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, but he struggled with PFF grades of 60.3 and 49.1 across snap counts of 851 and 814 respectively in his first two seasons in the league and, even if he doesn’t completely regress to that level, he might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

Lattimore and Adebo are likely locked into starting roles, leaving the third cornerback job to either Alontae Taylor or second round rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry. Taylor was a second round pick back in 2022, but he’s another recent high draft pick of the Saints who has yet to pan out, receiving PFF grades of 54.5 and 45.7 across snap counts of 663 and 950 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. He still has time to develop, but he has a long way to go to even be a decent third cornerback and the Saints seem to be getting impatient with him, taking McKinstry as a potential alternative. McKinstry could have growing pains as a rookie, but still might be the favorite for the #3 cornerback job. Given Lattimore’s injury history though, it’s likely both Taylor and McKinstry make starts at some point this season. Overall, this isn’t a bad secondary, but they have some concerns.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Saints have been a middling team over the past few seasons and this year they might not even be that good because they haven’t drafted well in recent years and, as a result, most of their top players are getting up there in age. Their schedule and division should also be tougher after facing one of the easiest schedules and playing in the weakest division in the league a year ago. They should have gone through a complete rebuild after Drew Brees retired, but instead they are stuck in NFL purgatory with no clear way to get any better long-term, given their lack of long-term financial flexibility. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Saints after I finish all of my previews.

Update: The Saints have a relatively easy schedule, but their roster got significantly weaker when they lost Ryan Ramczyk for the season with injury.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in NFC South

Carolina Panthers 2024 NFL Season Preview

June 20, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Panthers

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Panthers made an aggressive trade up from the 9th pick to the 1st pick in the draft to select quarterback Bryce Young. In the previous five seasons, the Panthers finished between 5 wins and 7 wins every season, while starting eight different quarterbacks, so they clearly needed a new direction at the position, but the Panthers paid a steep price to move up, giving away the 9th pick, the 61st pick, their 2024 1st round pick, their 2025 2nd round pick, and talented wide receiver DJ Moore.

Unfortunately, that decision backfired for the Panthers. Their offense missed DJ Moore in a big way and Bryce Young, with little help around him, struggled mightily as a rookie, completing just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 5.46 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on an offense that ranked last in yards per play and 29th in first down rate. The Panthers’ defense wasn’t bad, but their offensive struggles still led to the team finishing with the worst record in the league at 2-15, which meant that the first round pick the Panthers surrendered to the Bears ended up being 1st overall, allowing the Bears to select Caleb Williams, a much better quarterback prospect than Young.

That left the Panthers in the position of being the worst team in the league and not having the #1 pick to fix the situation. Instead, the Panthers spent significantly in free agency trying to improve their roster around Young, to hopefully get much better play out of Young in year two and beyond. In terms of average annual value of their roster, the Panthers shot up from 28th in 2023 to 11th in 2024 after their off-season spending spree. That normally correlates heavily with winning percentage, but the Panthers overpaid a lot of their free agents in a desperate attempt to improve their roster.

That being said, Young and this offense should be better in year two, if only by default. Much of the problem with the Panthers’ offense a year ago was not his fault and, if only by default, they are better around him on offense this season. Young also has a good chance to be better himself. He’ll continue being backed up by veteran Andy Dalton, who has a career 87.6 QB rating in 163 starts in 13 seasons in the league, including a 88.4 QB rating across 58 pass attempts when Young missed time with injury in 2023, but he’s now going into his age 37 season and is nothing more than a solid backup at this stage of his career, so Young figures to keep his job all season even if he continues struggling. The Panthers still have a long way to go to be competitive for a playoff spot, even in the weaker NFC, but they probably won’t be as bad as a year ago.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Panthers spent big at the guard position this off-season, signing ex-Dolphin Robert Hunt to a 5-year, 100 million dollar deal and ex-Seahawk Damien Lewis to a 4-year, 53 million dollar deal. Help at the guard position was much needed, as the Panthers somehow had nine different players start at the two guard spots in 2023 and all of them finished with PFF grades below 60, with all but four of them finishing with grades below 50. Hunt should be a big upgrade, having finished above 60 in all four seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2020 (55 starts), including PFF grades of 73.7 and 77.1 over the past two seasons respectively. He’s a little overpaid as the 3rd highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he should be a big boost for this offensive line.

Damien Lewis is not nearly as good of a player and was a bigger overpay. He did have PFF grades of 70.2 and 71.8 in 2020 and 2022 respectively, but he was inconsistent with PFF grades of 57.1 and 59.6 in 2021 and 2023 respectively. The 2020 3rd round pick could still be a solid starter if he bounces back and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what the Panthers had at the position a year ago, but the Panthers paid a lot more than they needed to for a player with as inconsistent of a resume as him.

The Panthers didn’t bring back center Bradley Bozeman as a free agent and had a decent 62.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but they have Austin Corbett as a replacement. Corbett was one of the guards who struggled last season, with a 47.9 PFF grade in 257 snaps (4 starts), but he was coming off of a torn ACL that he suffered at the end of the 2022 season and he has a lot of bounce back potential in 2024 if he’s past his injury. From 2020-2022, Corbett made 50 starts and received PFF grades of 70.9, 68.8, and 69.1 and he’s only in his age 29 season. He has more experience at guard than center, but can play both positions and is needed more at center than guard with Hunt and Lewis being added this off-season.

Four other players who made starts at guard last season are still on the roster and will compete for depth options. Chandler Zavala was a 4th round pick in 2023, but he had a 26.2 PFF grade on 374 snaps as a rookie and has a long way to go to even be a decent backup. Nash Jensen was an undrafted rookie who had a 34.7 PFF grade on 302 snaps and he’s also unlikely to even be a decent backup this season. Cade Mays, a 2022 6th round pick, was better with a 58.3 PFF grade on a career high 434 snaps and could be a decent backup, while Brady Christensen probably has the most upside of the bunch.

Christensen only played one game in 2023 due to injury, going down for the season with a season ending injury after week 1, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and wasn’t horrible in his first two seasons in the league with PFF grades of 61.6 and 57.3 on snap counts of 480 and 965 respectively. He’s only ever played tackle and guard, but could probably play center too if needed, so he’s a solid, versatile reserve option.

The Panthers also signed Yosh Nijman to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal this off-season and he has grades of 60.5, 63.2, 63.1, and 61.7 over the past four seasons, while making 22 starts as the Packers’ swing tackle. Tackle is actually a position of strength for the Panthers, as starters Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are both above average, so Nijman will remain a swing tackle, giving the Panthers above average depth at that position. He and Christensen will probably be the Panthers’ top reserves, giving them good depth upfront.

Taylor Moton was the Panthers’ best offensive lineman in 2023, with a 74.6 PFF grade in 17 starts. He’s been an above average starter for years, with PFF grades of 76.6, 76.2, 81.6, 77.5, and 69.3 in the five seasons prior to last season, while making all 99 possible starts in the past six seasons combined. He’s now in his age 30 season and could decline a little bit in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does decline, there’s a good chance he remains an above average starter, given that he’s starting from such a high base point.

Ikem Ekwonu, meanwhile, was the 6th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has PFF grades of 65.3 and 67.4 in the past two seasons, and could have his best season yet in 2024, given his sky high upside and the fact that he’s still only in his age 24 season. The Panthers overpaid for Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, but adding those two at guard and likely getting a healthier year out of Austin Corbett should make this offensive line much better than a year ago, when it was a big weakness, particularly on the interior.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Panthers’ receiving corps was a big problem last season as well. Adam Thielen surpassed 1000 yards receiving with a 103/1014/4 slash line, but he wasn’t that efficient, averaging just 1.59 yards per route run and 7.40 yards per target. Thielen was a better receiver in his prime, averaging 1.98 yards per route run from 2016-2021 with a 88/1124/9 slash line per 17 games, but he’s on the decline and he’s now going into his age 34 season, so he could easily continue declining further.

The rest of this receiving corps was even worse in 2023, with DJ Chark totaling a 35/525/5 slash line with 1.08 yards per route run, Jonathan Mingo totaling a 43/418/0 slash line with 0.78 yards per route run, and no other players surpassing 250 yards receiving. Quarterback play was part of the problem, but the receiving corps also needed significant upgrades this off-season, especially when you consider Adam Thielen’s age. To try to improve this group, the Panthers traded back up into the first round for Xavier Legette and traded for veteran Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers, taking on the remaining 1 year and 10 million left on his contract.

Legette should have a big role right away, likely as a starter, but he enters the league pretty raw, albeit with a huge upside. Diontae Johnson, meanwhile, is a solid wide receiver, but not a true #1 receiver, averaging 1.72 yards per route run, 6.83 yards per target, and 873 yards per season in five seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2019. They should both play in three wide receiver sets with Thielen, a trio that is unspectacular, but significantly better than what they had a year ago.

DJ Chark is no longer with the team, while Jonathan Mingo will now likely be the #4 receiver. He was a 2nd round pick in 2023 and has the upside to be significantly better in year two, so he’s not bad depth to have, but it’s possible he would continue struggling if forced back into a bigger role by injury and/or underperformance ahead of him on the depth chart. Terrance Marshall is also a recent 2nd round pick, but he has averaged just 0.94 yards per route run in three seasons in the league and couldn’t earn a significant role even in a thin receiving corps a year ago (334 snaps), so he’s nothing more than depth.

The Panthers gave playing time to four tight ends last season, Tommy Tremble (556 snaps), Hayden Hurst (318 snaps), Ian Thomas (218 snaps), and Stephen Sullivan (171 snaps), but they all struggled, with slash lines of 23/194/3, 18/184/1, 5/56/0, and 12/125/0 respectively on yards per route run averages of 0.78, 0.82, 0.73, and 0.98 respectively. All but Hurst remain and the only addition the Panthers made to this group this off-season was 4th round pick Ja’Tavion Sanders, so they should continue getting very little out of this group.

Tremble was a 3rd round pick in 2021, but has averaged just 0.71 yards per route run with 62 catches in 49 career games. Thomas is a 6-year veteran, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons, while averaging just 0.69 yards per route run. Stephen Sullivan is a 2020 7th round pick with 14 career catches. Unless the rookie Sanders surprises in a big way year one, I wouldn’t expect any of these players to contribute in any sort of significant way. This receiving corps should be better this year than a year ago, with the additions of Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson, but this group still has their problems and, overall, is underwhelming.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Last off-season, the Panthers gave a 4-year, 25.4 million dollar contract to former Eagles running back Miles Sanders, a contract that currently makes him the 12th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary. Sanders, a 2nd round pick in 2019, averaged 5.02 YPC on 739 carries in four seasons with the Eagles, but struggled mightily after going from a great offensive line on a talented offense in Philadelphia to a poor offensive line on a talentless offense in Carolina, dropping to just 3.34 YPC as a result.

Sanders struggled so much that lost his starting job to expected backup Chuba Hubbard, who ended up out-carrying him 238 to 129 on the season. Hubbard only had a 3.79 YPC average and has just a 3.92 YPC average on 505 carries in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in the 2021 NFL draft, but he was still significantly more effective than Sanders was and his underwhelming YPC average can largely be attributed to the issues around him on this offense.

Sanders remains on the roster because of a guaranteed 6.22 million dollar salary, but Hubbard should remain above him on the depth chart and Sanders will also likely be surpassed on the depth chart by Jonathon Brooks, who the Panthers selected in the 2nd round of this year’s draft.

Running back was a relatively minor need for the Panthers this off-season, but Brooks likely would have been a first round pick if not for a torn ACL suffered late in his final collegiate season and clearly the Panthers are comfortable with his recovery from that injury. He’ll probably be eased into action early in the season, but I would expect him to at least split carries with Hubbard by season’s end and it’s entirely possible he ends up as the lead back and the team leader in carries, even as a rookie being eased into action after injury.

Hubbard was actually 4th on this team in receiving yardage last season, but that’s not as impressive as it sounds, as he had just a 39/233/0 slash line with a 0.79 yards per route run average. Overall, his yards per route run average in his career is 0.99, making him a better pass catching option than Sanders, who has averaged just 0.85, including a 0.73 yards per route in 2023, when he finished with a 27/154/0 slash line. Hubbard will likely continue playing more passing down snaps than Sanders, but the rookie Brooks has the most passing down upside of any of their backs, after catching 25 passes for 286 yards in just 11 games in his final collegiate season. The Panthers have some options in the backfield, but this will likely remain an underwhelming group unless they get a big rookie year out of Jonathon Brooks, who is coming off a significant injury.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers spent a lot of money trying to build up their offensive supporting cast this off-season, but they traded away one of their best defensive player Brian Burns, receiving a second round pick for the talented edge defender, who the Giants gave a 5-year, 141 million dollar extension upon acquiring him, making him the third highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual salary.

The trade made some sense, as the Panthers are not close to competing even with Burns and needed to replenish draft capital after their trade up with the Bears for Bryce Young last off-season, but Burns is only going into his age 26 season and was the kind of player the Panthers should have built around, rather than using the money they saved by not paying him to overpay other team’s free agents. Burns finished the 2023 season with an overall 73.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate and totaled 46 sacks, 56 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 80 games in five seasons with the Panthers, who selected him in the first round in the 2019 NFL Draft.

The Panthers also did not bring back Yetur Gross-Matos, who had a decent 65.4 PFF grade across 465 snaps as the other starting edge defender last season, nor did they bring back Justin Houston or Marquis Haynes, who both were decent in smaller roles, with PFF grades of 61.2 and 71.9 respectively on snap counts of 177 and 142 respectively. In what is a completely revamped position group, the Panthers added free agents Jadeveon Clowney, DJ Wonnum, and K’Lavon Chaisson on deals worth 20 million over 2 years, 12.5 million over 2 years, and 2.5 million over 1 year respectively.

Clowney is the best of the bunch, playing the run well and getting to the quarterback at an impressive rate, exceeding 60 on PFF in overall grade in every season except his rookie season in 2024 and exceeding 70 in all but one of the past nine seasons, including a 85.7 PFF grade in 653 snaps last season. In total, he has 52.5 sacks, 80 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 122 games over those past nine seasons, including 9.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 2023.

However, Clowney is now going into his age 31 season and he’s always had durability problems, missing 37 games in 10 seasons in the league, while making it through the season without missing time just twice. He could start to decline this season and, even if he doesn’t, he’ll likely miss some time with injury and he also doesn’t really fit the rebuilding Panthers’ timeline to compete, so he was a bit of an odd signing, even if his presence does make the team better.

Wonnum and Chaisson, meanwhile, are both underwhelming players. Wonnum has developed into a decent run stopper, but he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with 23 sacks, 23 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate in 62 games in four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020, while finishing below 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in all four of those seasons. Chaisson, meanwhile, has finished below 60 overall on PFF in all four seasons in the league, while playing just 336 snaps per season. He is only still in the league because he was a first round pick in 2020 and is still only in his age 25 season. He might still have significant untapped upside and could theoretically take a step forward with his new team, but time is running out for him to develop into even a capable rotational player.

The Panthers’ top returning edge defenders from a year ago are DJ Johnson and Amare Barno, who played just 231 snaps and 189 snaps respectively. Johnson struggled in limited action last season, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league. I would expect him to see an expanded role in a revamped position group in 2024. Barno, meanwhile, was a 2022 6th round pick and has only played 240 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. He’ll likely be on the outside looking in for a role in 2024, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, and he’s not a lock for the final roster. This is an underwhelming group outside of the veteran Jadeveon Clowney, whose age and injury history are both significant concerns.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Panthers did keep one talented defensive lineman, locking up 2020 1st round pick Derrick Brown on a 4-year, 96 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. Brown is now the 4th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary and he only has 8 sacks in 66 career games, but he has added 37 hits and a 7.5% pressure rate, while excelling against the run, particularly over the past two seasons, when he has had overall PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 on snap counts of 870 and 938 respectively. Still only in his age 26 season, he should continue being one of the better interior defenders in the league for years to come and he could possibly even have further untapped upside.

The rest of the Panthers’ interior defender options are all also better against the run than they are as pass rushers, so this group doesn’t complement each other well. Shy Tuttle was second at the position in snaps played in 2023 with 547 and he has just a 3.5% pressure rate in his career, which fell to just 0.9% last season. He’s also only played 452 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, with a max of 557. The 2019 undrafted free agent is a solid run stuffer, but nothing more.

DeShawn Williams was a situational pass rusher for the Panthers last season and, while he only had a 7.5% pressure rate, he’ll still be missed in that aspect because the Panthers don’t have another situational pass rush option. Instead, Williams was replaced by A’Shawn Robinson, who has finished above 60 in run defense grade on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, but only has a 5.2% pressure rate in his career, including 3.6% last season with the Giants. Signing him to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal this off-season, the Panthers probably overpaid for a mostly redundant run stuffer.

Deep reserves Nick Thurman and LaBryan Ray are also better against the run than they are as pass rushers, but they aren’t particularly good run defenders either. Thurman, a 2018 undrafted free agent, has only played 505 snaps in his career, 368 of which came last season. He had a solid 65.4 PFF grade against the run last season, but had just a 2.3% pressure rate, and has a pressure rate of just 3.3% in his career. Ray, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who played the first 356 snaps of his career last season, finishing with a 54.6 PFF grade and a 2.2% pressure rate.

Both Thurman and/or Ray will probably have to play at least somewhat of a role again in 2024, with the Panthers only other deep reserve option being 6th round rookie Jaden Crumedy, who would also probably struggle. Derrick Brown is one of the best interior defenders in the league and Shy Tuttle and A’Shawn Robinson are good run defenders, but the Panthers lack depth in this position group, particularly when it comes to interior pass rushers.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Another key defensive player the Panthers didn’t bring back this off-season is linebacker Frankie Luvu. Luvu had a 80.0 PFF grade across 989 snaps in 2023, but the Panthers opted not to try to match or exceed the 3-year, 31 million dollar deal he signed with the Commanders this off-season and instead signed Josey Jewell from the Broncos on a 3-year, 18.75 million dollar deal. Jewell is a solid player who has PFF grades of 68.1, 71.7, 67.2 on an average of 877 snaps per season in his last three healthy seasons, but he’ll still probably be a downgrade from Luvu.

Fortunately, the Panthers do get Shaq Thompson back, after his 2023 season was ended by injury in week 2. Prior to last season, Thompson had missed just 13 games in 8 seasons in the league and finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of those eight seasons, with four seasons above 70, including PFF grades of 72.7 and 72.3 on snap counts of 796 and 1,089 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Thompson is now in his age 30 season and coming off of a serious injury, so he could decline a little bit, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain a solid every down player.

The Panthers also added Trevin Wallace in the third round of the draft to give themselves additional linebacker depth. They downgraded by going from Frankie Luvu to Josey Jewell, but it wouldn’t be hard for Thompson and Wallace to be better than Deion Jones and Kamu Grugier-Hill were as their top linebackers behind Luvu last season, when they had PFF grades of 66.3 and 48.6 respectively. This group doesn’t have the top level talent in Luvu that they had a year ago, but they should make up for that somewhat by being a deeper group.

Grade: B

Cornerback

Along with getting Shaq Thompson back from injury, the Panthers could also get a healthier season out of top cornerback Jaycee Horn, who had an impressive 84.1 PFF grade in 2023, but was limited to just 275 snaps in 6 games by injury. A first round pick in 2021, Horn has always had a huge upside and he had impressive grades of 67.8 and 71.4 in his first two seasons in the league as well, but injuries have consistently plagued him, limiting him to 142 snaps in 3 games as a rookie and 812 snaps in 13 games in his second season in the league in 2022, meaning he’s played in just 22 of a possible 51 games in three seasons in the league.

Horn is still only going into his age 24 season and the Panthers picked up his 5th year option for 2025 because of the upside he’s shown when healthy, but his impressive play has come in a pretty limited sample size thus far in his career and there’s a good chance he misses more time with injury in 2024 and beyond. He has a high ceiling and could put it all together in his 4th season in the league in 2024 if he can finally stay healthy, but he comes with a low floor as well.

The Panthers will need Horn to stay healthy because the rest of this position group is pretty thin. The Panthers didn’t bring back Donte Jackson (902 snaps) and CJ Henderson (407 snaps), who played significant roles a year ago. Henderson had just a 45.4 PFF grade, but Jackson was decent with a 64.3 PFF grade and the Panthers didn’t do much to replace them, only signing ex-Bill Dane Jackson to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal in free agency. Jackson, a 2020 7th round pick, only started 28 of the 52 games he played in four seasons in Buffalo and had mostly mediocre grades from PFF, finishing in the 50s or 60s in all four seasons, but the Panthers don’t have a choice but to make him an every down starter.

The Panthers do bring back veteran Troy Hill, who had a decent 61.3 PFF grade on 493 snaps in 2023, and he’ll probably have to be their 3rd cornerback by default, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and has started just 58 of the 113 games he’s played in nine seasons in the league, while posting middling PFF grades in the 60s in the past three seasons, on snap counts of 533, 703, and 493 respectively, a noticeable drop off from his prime. Given his age, he could decline further in 2024 and be a liability, especially in an expanded role.

Behind the top-3 of Horn, Jackson, and Hill, the Panthers’ best options are 5th round rookie Chau Smith-Wade, who would likely struggle in a significant rookie year role, 2023 undrafted free agent D’Shawn Jamison, who struggled with a 47.2 PFF grade on 107 snaps as a rookie, and Dicaprio Bootle, a 2021 undrafted free agent who has played just 221 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league. Depth is a big issue for the Panthers at cornerback, one that will be an even bigger issue if Horn suffers another significant injury. Horn’s upside if he stays healthy and puts it all together is the only positive thing this cornerback group has going for it.

The Panthers could try to mask some of their lack of depth at cornerback by using three safeties together frequently in sub packages, but their safety depth is only better than their cornerback depth by default. The starting duo of Jordan Fuller and Xavier Woods is at least solid though, with Fuller coming over from the Rams this off-season on a 1-year, 3.25 million dollar deal and Woods in the final year of a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal that he signed as a free agent two off-seasons ago.

Fuller, a 2020 6th round pick, received PFF grades of 63.6, 74.3, and 66.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, while starting all 45 games he played in those three seasons, with a lost season due to injury in 2022 in between. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue being a solid starter and he has a good chance to be an upgrade, even if only slightly, on the player he is replacing, Vonn Bell, who had a 63.9 PFF grade across 777 snaps in 2023.

Woods, meanwhile, is coming off of a career best 80.3 PFF grade in 14 starts (3 games missed due to injury). He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s not a complete one-year wonder, receiving PFF grades above 60 in all seven seasons in the league (94 starts in 106 games), including four seasons above 70. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect Woods to repeat his career best 2023 campaign, but he should remain at least a solid starter. Depth is the issue at the safety position. The Panthers signed veteran Nick Scott in free agency and he’s started 27 of the 50 games he’s played in the past three seasons, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in all three of those seasons, with grades of 47.5, 54.2, and 44.0 respectively.

Even with his experience, Scott won’t be guaranteed the top backup spot and will have to compete with 2023 5th round pick Jammie Robinson, who played 64 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and Sam Franklin, who has been a backup safety for the Panthers for the past four seasons, with mostly mediocre play across 781 snaps. Scott is probably the favorite for the #3 safety job and all three of their backup options would probably struggle if forced into significant action. The Panthers have a solid safety duo and a high upside #1 cornerback Jaycee Horn, but Horn comes with a lot of downside as well and the Panthers’ depth at both cornerback and safety is very suspect.

Grade: B

Conclusion

On offense, the Panthers improved their supporting cast and should get better play out of quarterback Bryce Young. On defense, they lost a pair of key players in Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu, but they replaced them with Jadeveon Clowney and Josey Jewell, who aren’t huge downgrades, and they could get healthier years out of both Jaycee Horn and Shaq Thompson, who are key contributors when healthy. However, this team was the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin a year ago and needed to improve significantly to even be respectable. They’ll be more competitive than a year ago, but it’s hard to see this team qualifying for the post-season, even in the weaker NFC.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC South

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 NFL Season Preview

June 18, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Quarterback

In the first five seasons of Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback from 2018-2022, the Chiefs finished in the top-3 in offensive DVOA in all five seasons. In 2023, the Chiefs fell to 8th in DVOA and Mahomes had the lowest QB rating of his career at 92.6, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, after completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in his first five seasons in the league (106.0 QB rating).

Despite that, the Chiefs still won the Super Bowl, their 2nd in a row and their 3rd in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. While their offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the past, their defense was the best it had been in Mahomes’ tenure, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, giving the Chiefs a well balanced team that was one of the best in the league in the regular season and that was capable of going all the way once the post-season began.

Mahomes wasn’t as good statistically as he had been in the past, but that wasn’t really his fault, nor was the Chiefs’ relative lack of offensive success. Mahomes has a 85.1 PFF grade, his 4th highest grade of his six seasons as a starter and his 6th straight season above 80, dating back to his first season as a starter in 2018. The problem was that Mahomes’ offensive supporting cast was the worst he’s had in his tenure as a starter, which I’ll get into later. With Mahomes still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Mahomes has only missed two games due to injury in his career, but if he were to miss time, the Chiefs would turn to Carson Wentz, who they added this off-season. Wentz would obviously be a big downgrade from Mahomes, as any backup quarterback would be, but he’s probably above average as far as backups go. He has plenty of experience, with 93 starts in 8 seasons in the league, and he has a decent 89.4 QB rating across those starts, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 153 touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. With Mahomes leading the way, this is one of, if not the best quarterback room in the NFL.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The biggest problem around Mahomes last season was his receiving corps. Of the Chiefs’ top-5 wide receivers in terms of snaps played, four of them finished in the bottom half of wide receivers on PFF. The one exception was rookie Rashee Rice, a 2023 2nd round pick. Rice’s overall receiving numbers (79/938/7) don’t look that great, but he was a part-time player earlier in the season. From week 6 on, he had a 62/765/5 slash line in 11 games, which extrapolates to 96/1182/7 over a 17-game stretch. He also averaged 2.39 yards per route run, 10th among eligible wide receivers, and he received a 85.0 PFF grade, 13th among eligible wide receivers.

Going into his second season in the league, Rice should have a lot of promise, but he’s facing an extended suspension for off-the-field issues from this off-season, which would be a big blow to this offense. Fortunately, the Chiefs did make improving their receiving corps a priority this off-season, signing Marquise Brown to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal in free agency and using their first round pick on Xavier Worthy. When Rice is on the field, Brown and Worthy will play in three wide receiver sets with him and, if he’s not available, they should help somewhat make up for Rice’s absence. It’s also possible that Rice’ suspension doesn’t start until the 2025 season, as the league lets the legal process play out.

Marquise Brown was a first round pick in 2019 by the Ravens and then was traded to the Cardinals for a first round pick following the 2021 season. Brown was better with the Ravens, averaging 1.69 yards per route run over his three seasons with the team, surpassing 1000 yards in 2021, before falling to 1.35 yards per route run with the Cardinals over the past two seasons, but he had much worse quarterback play in Arizona and is a good bet to bounce back now that he’s in Kansas City with Mahomes. He’s also only in his age 27 season, so he should be in the prime of his career. Worthy, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term #1 receiver and, even if he has growing pains as a rookie, he should be a useful contributor for them in a complementary role.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling wasn’t brought back this off-season, but he won’t be missed after a 2023 season in which he had just a 21/315/1 slash line, a 0.71 yards per route run average, and ranked 100th among 102 eligible wide receivers in PFF grade. The Chiefs did bring back the rest of their wide receivers from a year ago and, while none of them were good in significant roles last season, the Chiefs won’t need them for more than depth this season, though one would have to play significant snaps for a period of time if Rice misses time due to his suspension.

Skyy Moore has the most upside of their reserve options, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but he’s averaged just 1.08 yards per route run with slash lines of 22/250/0 and 21/244/1 in two seasons in the league. He’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but he’s still best as a reserve option. Kadarius Toney also has upside, as a 2021 1st round pick with a career 1.76 yards per route run average, but he’s been limited to snap counts of 302, 144, and 229 in three seasons in the league due to injuries and inconsistent performance and he was traded from the Giants to the Chiefs midway through his second season in the league for a 3rd round pick after they gave up on his upside. Still only in his age 25 season, the potential is there, but he’s also best as a reserve option.

Justin Watson is a veteran who was second among Chiefs wide receivers in receiving yardage last season, but he only had a 27/460/3 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average, both of which were actually career bests for the 6-year veteran. Now in his age 29 season, it’s highly unlikely the 2018 5th round pick has any untapped upside. The Chiefs also have Mecole Hardman, who returned to the team midway through the season after a very disappointing half season with the Jets. He has a decent 1.62 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league since being selected by the Chiefs in the 2nd round in 2019, but he only has 40 catches over the past two seasons and played just 124 snaps in 6 regular season games after returning to the team during last season. He’ll have to compete for a roster spot with the rest of the Chiefs reserve options.

The Chiefs also still have tight end Travis Kelce, who somewhat made up for the Chiefs’ lack of wide receiver depth, leading the team with a 93/984/5 slash line and averaging 1.92 yards per route run, second on the team behind Rashee Rice. That was a down year by Kelce’s standards though, as he had surpassed 1000 yards receiving in each of his previous seven seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run over that stretch. Now going into his age 35 season, age seems to be catching up with Kelce somewhat, but, barring a massive dropoff, the future Hall of Famer should remain one of the best tight ends in the league again in 2024.

Kelce will likely continue being backed up by Noah Gray, a 2021 5th round pick who has seen snap counts of 599 and 595 over the past two seasons, but he’s a mediocre player who has averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in his career and the Chiefs added Jared Wiley in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them another long-term option. Wiley will probably spend his rookie year as the third tight end, but could work his way into more playing time as the year goes on. The Chiefs added Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown to give themselves much needed depth in the receiving corps and Rashee Rice could have a big second season in the league if he is able to play the whole season, but his legal issues cloud his outlook, while tight end Travis Kelce could continue declining, given his age.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was part of the problem in 2023, particularly the tackle position. In 2022, the Chiefs had a solid tackle duo of Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie, but both left as free agents and the Chiefs replaced them with Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, who both struggled with PFF grades of 55.4 and 51.6 respectively. The left tackle Smith wasn’t brought back this off-season and will either be replaced by 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris, who was underwhelming in 55.6 snaps as a rookie, or by this year’s 2nd round pick Kingsley Suamataia. It’s possible neither one is an upgrade on Smith, but both at least have more upside.

Unfortunately, the Chiefs are stuck with Jawaan Taylor at right tackle, as he’s guaranteed 20 million in the 2nd year of a massive 4-year, 80 million dollar deal the Chiefs gave him last off-season. Taylor was never worth that kind of money, receiving grades of 63.7, 56.5, 60.4, and 58.7 in four seasons with the Jaguars, who made him a 2nd round pick in 2019, but last year was a career worst year for him, so he could be a little bit better in 2024, if only by default. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he got benched mid-season if he doesn’t turn it around though, despite his salary, either for whoever loses the left tackle battle, or for backup right tackle Lucas Niang, a 2021 3rd round pick who showed promise with a 64.6 grade across 524 snaps (9 starts) as a rookie, but who has since played just 69 mediocre snaps in the past two seasons.

The interior of this offensive line is still good though, as the trio of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith have been together for three seasons and have all been above average during that stretch. Humphrey and Smith were both draft picks in 2021, going in the 2nd round and 6th round respectively, while Thuney was added in free agency that off-season on a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal. Humphrey is actually coming off of a down year with a 78.2 PFF grade, as compared to 91.4 and 90.0 in his first two seasons in the league. He has a good chance to bounce back in 2024 though and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better centers in the league, still only in his age 25 season.

Smith isn’t quite as good, but he’s still had PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, and 72.2 over the past three seasons respectively and should continue playing around that level, or possibly even better, still only in his age 25 season in 2024. Thuney, meanwhile, has finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons, though he’s now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline. He should remain an above average starter even if he does decline, but his best days could be behind him at this point.

The trio of Humphrey, Smith, and Thuney have missed a combined three games over the past three seasons, none of which were last season, so depth hasn’t really been needed behind them, but the Chiefs would be in trouble if any of them missed an extended period of time, as their top interior reserve options are 5th round rookie Hunter Nourzad, 7th round rookie CJ Hanson, and 2022 undrafted free agent Mike Caliendo, who struggled mightily in the first 64 snaps of his career last season. The Chiefs should still have a strong interior of their offensive line, possibly even better than a year ago if Creed Humphrey can bounce back to his 2021-2022 form, but the tackle position is likely to remain a position of weakness, barring breakout seasons from young players, and depth is a concern.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

While the Chiefs’ wide receivers and offensive tackles were not as good in 2023 as they had been in the past, running back Isiah Pacheco took a step forward. His YPC average dropped from 4.88 in 2022, when he was a rookie, to 4.56 in 2023, but that was because his blocking wasn’t as good, as his yards after contact increased from 3.00 YPC to 3.04 YPC. He also saw a bigger workload, going from 170 carries to 205 carries, and he had much a higher broken tackle rate, with 37 broken tackles, as compared to just 20 in 2022. Overall, he went from a 74.6 PFF grade as a rookie to a 82.3 PFF grade in 2023.

Pacheco also saw a big increase in passing game work, going from a 13/130/0 slash line in 2022 to a 44/244/2 slash line in 2023, although his yards per route run average was still mediocre, going from 0.88 as a rookie to 0.91 last season. Passing down specialist Jerick McKinnon, who had a 25/192/4 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average last season, is no longer with the team, leaving Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the only back behind Pacheco and he’ll be a pure backup, rather than a passing down specialist, so Pacheco could see even more receiving production in 2024, though he’ll probably remain inefficient in that aspect.

Edwards-Helaire was a first round pick in 2020, but has mostly been a bust, with just a 4.18 YPC average and 12 touchdowns on 441 carries in four seasons in the league, including just 3.72 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 141 carries over the past two seasons since Pacheco took his starting job, but the Chiefs did opt to bring him back as a backup this off-season on a 1-year, 1.7 million dollar deal. He won’t see a big role unless Pacheco gets hurt, but he’s their only good backup option, so he should see at least a few touches per game. Behind him, the only other Chiefs running back who isn’t an undrafted free agent with no NFL carries is Keontay Ingram, who has averaged just 2.16 YPC on 62 carries in two seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2022. Pacheco is a solid starter and Edwards-Helaire isn’t a bad backup, but this is a thin backfield.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

A big reason for the Chiefs’ defensive success last season was a dominant season they got out of interior defender Chris Jones. Not only did Jones have 10.5 sacks of his own, while adding 21 sacks and a 15.6% pressure rate, ridiculous numbers for an interior pass rusher, but he also frequently drew double teams, allowing the Chiefs’ edge defenders to get frequent one-on-ones, which led to the Chiefs finishing 2nd in the NFL with 57 sacks in 2023. Jones wasn’t nearly as good against the run, but he still had an overall 84.1 PFF grade on 739 snaps.

Jones is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline, but, even if he drops off a little bit, he should remain one of the top interior defenders in the league, given that he’s starting from such a high base point. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Jones has exceeded a 70 PFF grade in all eight seasons in the league, including seven straight seasons above 80, while averaging 725 snaps per season in those seven seasons. In total, he has 75.5 sacks, 104 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 123 career games, with 67 sacks, 92 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 91 games in the past six seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he should continue playing at a high level and it’s possible he could avoid declining for at least another year.

The rest of the Chiefs’ interior defenders aren’t nearly as good though, as the other three interior defenders who saw significant action, Derrick Nnadi (500 snaps), Tershawn Wharton (401 snaps), and Matt Dickerson (190 snaps), all finished with grades below 60 on PFF. Wharton was at least a decent pass rusher, with a 6.7% pressure rate, but Nnadi had just a 3.8% pressure rate, Dickerson had just a 1.1% pressure rate, and none of the three played well against the run. All three of them remain on the roster in 2024 and should play similar roles.

Nnadi has been better against the run in the past, but he only has a 4.6% pressure rate in six seasons in the league and he has finished below 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons. At best, he’ll be a capable base package player, but he could easily continue struggling like he has in recent years. Wharton has always been a decent pass rusher, with a 7.0% pressure rate in four seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020, but he’s finished below 60 in run defense grade in all four seasons. He should remain a similar player in 2024, a decent, but unspectacular situational pass rusher who would likely struggle if forced into a bigger role. Matt Dickerson, meanwhile, is a 2018 undrafted free agent who has only played 566 mediocre snaps in six seasons in the league. Chris Jones elevates this group significantly by himself, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

To make up for their lack of depth on the interior, the Chiefs will likely use three defensive ends together frequently in sub packages, with one lined up on the interior, most likely either Mike Danna or Charles Omenihu, who both played in that capacity last season. George Karlaftis led Chiefs edge defenders with 755 snaps played and 10.5 sacks. He also had 5 hits and a 14.1% pressure rate, although he benefited significantly from Chris Jones drawing double teams on the interior and he also struggled against the run, so he finished with just a 64.0 PFF grade overall. A first round pick in 2022, Karlaftis struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 729 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to make his third season in the league in 2024 the best of his career thus far.

Danna was second among Chiefs edge defenders with 745 snaps played in 2023 and he had a solid 67.0 PFF grade. His pass rush productivity was underwhelming, but that’s because he lined up frequently on the interior, where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback from, and he still finished the season with 6.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.8% pressure rate, which isn’t bad considering the hybrid role he played in. A 2020 5th round pick, Danna also had a 67.4 PFF grade on 471 snaps in 2022, with 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, when he lined up almost exclusively on the edge. Danna also had a 61.8 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and a 61.7 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2021. He’s an unspectacular player, but he’s solid and he’s only in his age 27 season. The Chiefs kept him on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, a fair value for a useful contributor.

Charles Omenihu only played 403 snaps last season because he was limited to 11 games by suspension, but he might not play more than that in 2024, given that he is rehabbing a torn ACL suffered in the playoffs last season and might not be ready for the beginning of the season. When he returns, he’s mostly a pass rush specialist, finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all five seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all five seasons. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past three seasons, exceeding 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 11.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 43 games, despite seeing frequent action on the interior in sub packages.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah also will likely see a higher snap count in 2024, after the 2023 1st round pick only played 218 snaps as a rookie, with 61 of them coming in a meaningless week 18 game when the Chiefs’ seeding was already locked up. Anudike-Uzomah didn’t fare well in his limited action with a 52.1 PFF grade and a 7.4% pressure rate, but he has the upside to be a lot better in year two. Anudike-Uzomah seeing more action will likely come at the expense of Mike Danna’s and to a lesser extent George Karlaftis’ playing time, but when Omenihu returns all four players should rotate frequently and see significant snap counts. It’s an unspectacular group overall, but they have plenty of depth.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs lost linebacker Willie Gay in free agency this off-season, after he played 625 snaps last season, but he probably won’t be missed, for a few reasons. For one, Gay struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade in 2023. On top of that, the Chiefs also have good depth at the position, and they should get a healthier season out of Nick Bolton, who was limited to 441 snaps in 8 games last season. When Bolton is healthy, he’s their best linebacker. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Bolton flashed a lot of potential with a 69.2 PFF grade on 623 snaps as a rookie, then broke out with a 75.7 PFF grade on 1,118 snaps in an every down role in 2022, and before falling back to a 69.2 PFF grade in his injury plagued 2023 season. Still only in his age 24 season, Bolton has a lot of upside and should either bounce back in 2024 or possibly have the best season yet of his career.

Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal are the other two linebackers who will play significant snaps for the Chiefs in 2024. Tranquill had a 70.5 PFF grade across 579 snaps in 2023, playing in an every down capacity when Bolton was out. That was a career best year for him, but he also had a 66.5 PFF grade across 977 snaps with the Chargers in 2022 and he has finished above 60 on PFF in all four healthy seasons of his career, so he should be a capable every down linebacker at worst in 2024.

Chenal, meanwhile, is a run stopping specialist who has PFF grades of 66.0 and 76.5 across snap counts of 262 and 446 since going in the third round in 2022, with 370 snaps on run plays, as opposed to 338 snaps on pass plays. He should play a similar role as the third linebacker in 2023 and he should continue being an effective role player. This is an above average linebacking corps overall, with Bolton as a high upside every down player, Tranquill as a solid starter, and Leo Chenal as a useful role player.

Grade: B+

Secondary

If the Chiefs’ defense isn’t as good this season as it was a year ago, it will be because they lost talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who had a 71.1 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Chiefs franchise tagged Sneed, but realistically could afford to keep him given all of their other long-term financial commitments, so they ended up trading him for a 3rd round pick to the Titans, who extended him on a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid cornerback in the league.

The Chiefs will miss Sneed, but they have some promising options to replace him. Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams flashed potential in limited roles at cornerback last season, with a PFF grade on 66.1 snaps and a 73.0 PFF grade on 440 snaps and 321 snaps respectively, while 2023 4th round pick Chamarri Conner flashed potential with a 72.7 PFF grade on 305 snaps at safety last season and could play more cornerback in 2023. All have upside, but they all have downside as well, as Watson is a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 56.1 PFF grade on 604 snaps as a rookie, Williams is a 2022 4th round pick who was underwhelming with a 60.6 PFF grade on 437 snaps as a rookie, while Conner could struggle to make the position change.

Conner could also compete for a starting job at safety, where Bryan Cook and Justin Reid are penciled in as the starters, but could both be upgraded. Cook was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and was decent with a 64.3 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie and then received a 65.2 PFF grade as a starter in 2023, before his season was ended by injury after 593 snaps and 12 starts. Assuming he’s past his injury, Cook has the upside to have his best year yet in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee and it’s possible he remains only a marginal starter.

Justin Reid, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade in 16 starts (981 snaps) in 2023. He’s been better in the past, but he’s also been inconsistent for most of his career, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 in twice. He’s still only in his age 27 season and could be significantly better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but that’s not a guarantee. Both Reid and Cook have upside, but it’s also possible neither is better than they were a year ago, in which case they’d be an underwhelming starting duo.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have Trent McDuffie, who was actually their best cornerback a year ago, ranking 7th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 82.9 grade in 16 starts. A first round pick in 2022, McDuffie also had a 73.6 grade on 683 snaps as a rookie. Still only in his age 24 season in his third season in the league in 2024, McDuffie could still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t improve further this season, he should still remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He elevates a secondary that otherwise has upside, but a lot of downside and that should miss L’Jarius Sneed, possibly in a big way if their young cornerbacks can’t step up.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs’ offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the rest of the Patrick Mahomes era, as their offensive supporting cast was the worst of Mahomes’ career, but their defense was the best of Mahomes’ career and, overall, the Chiefs were still good enough to win their third Super Bowl in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. In 2024, their defense could take a step back, but their offensive supporting cast should be better and they still look like one of the best teams in the league and on the short list of contenders to win the Super Bowl, which would be the first three-peat in NFL history.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders 2024 NFL Season Preview

June 17, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

The Raiders were a mediocre team in 2023, finishing 8-9 with a -0.29 yards per play differential and a -1.46% first down rate differential. They did go 5-4 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who is now officially the head coach, but they weren’t that much better with Pierce, as their yards per play differential only improves to -0.20 when you weight their late season games higher and their first down rate differential only improves to -1.01%.

The biggest thing the Raiders needed to do this off-season to get out of mediocrity was to find a franchise quarterback. Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo began last season as the starter and was somewhat effective at moving the ball downfield, with a 65.1% completion percentage and a 7.13 YPA average, but he was also careless with the ball and had 7 interceptions to just 9 touchdowns in six starts. Garoppolo was replaced by 4th round rookie Aiden O’Connell, who took better care of the ball, with a 12/7 TD/INT ratio in 10 starts, but he had 62.1% completion percentage for an average of just 6.47 YPA and, ultimately, he still profiles as a long-term backup. Between the two quarterbacks, the Raiders had a team QB rating of just 80.1, 28th in the NFL.

Without many good veteran options available to them this off-season, the Raiders best path to a franchise quarterback was the draft, but unfortunately for them they had the 13th pick in a draft that saw six quarterbacks go in the top-12, leaving the Raiders without a good option. They did sign veteran Gardner Minshew to a 2-year, 25 million dollar deal and he should be better than what the Raiders had at the quarterback position a year ago, but he’s still a low end starting option, with 62.6% completion, 6.74 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions in 37 career starts, while finishing with grades of 70.5, 67.8, 61.7, 56.1, and 62.0 from PFF in five seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2019.

O’Connell remains as the backup and would likely continue being mediocre if forced into significant action again in 2024, a scenario that would only happen if Minshew missed extended time or happened to struggle mightily. O’Connell could be a little better in year two, but he doesn’t have great physical tools or a high upside, so it’s unlikely he ever develops into more than a solid backup. Overall, the Raiders have one of the most underwhelming quarterback rooms in the league, even if they should be marginally better than a year ago.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

With no quarterback available that was worth taking with the 13th pick, the Raiders instead used that selection on tight end Brock Bowers. It was a bit of a surprise because the Raiders had just used a second round on Michael Mayer in the 2023 NFL Draft, but Mayer had an underwhelming rookie season, with a 27/304/2 slash line and a 1.11 yards per route run average in a part-time role, and both he and Bowers have the versatility to line up in different spots and they will probably see the field at the same time with regularity.

The Raiders two tight ends should help mask their lack of depth at wide receiver, where they have a talented duo of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but didn’t have another wide receiver with more than 331 receiving yards last season. Adams had a 79.1 PFF grade, a 103/1144/8 slash line, and a 1.97 yards per route run average, but his PFF grade was actually his lowest since 2016, his receiving yardage total was just lowest since 2019, and his yards per route run average was his lowest since 2017.

One of the best receivers in the league in his prime, Adams averaged a 122/1568/14 slash line per 17 games with a 2.52 yards per route run average from 2018-2022, but he seems to be starting to decline now and is going into his age 32 season in 2024, which is more of a concern than you might think. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span.

Even if Adams continues declining, he should still be an above average receiver, but his best days are probably behind him at this point. Meyers doesn’t have the high end talent that Adams has, but he’s been a consistent #2 caliber receiver for the past few seasons, averaging 1.77 yards per route run and 801 receiving yards per season over the past four seasons. Still in his prime, going into his age 28 season, Meyers should continue playing at a similar level in 2024.

Tre Tucker was third on the team in receiving yardage with just a 19/331/2 slash line last season, but he actually had a decent 1.48 yards per route run average, splitting time as the #3 receiver with veteran Hunter Renfrow who had just a 25/255/0 slash line and a 0.98 yards per route run average. Renfrow is gone, which could free up more playing time for Tucker, a 2023 3rd round pick who is going into his second season in the league, but the Raiders did add a pair of veterans in free agency, Michael Gallup and Jalen Guyton, and they figure to use their two tight ends together frequently, which limits Tucker’s receiving upside.

Gallup is the better of the two veteran options, but he hasn’t been the same since a torn ACL that he suffered at the end of the 2021 season. Gallup surpassed 800 yards receiving in back-to-back years in 2019 and 2020 and is only in his age 28 season, so he could theoretically have bounce back potential, but he hasn’t surpassed 500 receiving yards in any of his past three seasons, while averaging just 1.13 yards per route run, so it’s unlikely he ever regains his old form.

Guyton, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in five seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2019 and he has caught just 12 passes over the past two seasons combined, so he probably won’t be anything more than a deep reserve. Adams and Meyers still figure to be the clear #1 and #2 options, even though Adams’ age is becoming a concern, but the Raiders should have better depth than a year ago, with Tre Tucker going into his second season in the league, Brock Bowers being added in the draft and Michael Gallup likely at least being an upgrade on Hunter Renfrow.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Raiders let their long-time feature back Josh Jacobs walk in free agency this off-season, with Jacobs signing an expensive 4-year, 48 million dollar deal with the Packers, but part of the reason the Raiders let him leave is because they have a good internal replacement option in Zamir White. Jacobs was better than the 3.45 YPC average on 233 carries that he had last season would suggest, as he had a solid 45.9% carry success rate, but that was still a down year for Jacobs, and White was better than Jacobs in both metrics, averaging 4.34 YPC and a 51.0% carry success rate. White also had 3.21 yards per carry after contact, as opposed to just 2.35 for Jacobs. White did that in a much smaller sample size, with just 104 carries on the season, after just 17 carries as a 4th round rookie in 2022, but he has a lot of potential and should at least be an adequate replacement for what Jacobs did in a down year in 2023.

The Raiders added veteran Alexander Mattison to give them insurance behind White, but he’s been underwhelming in his career and he’ll probably be a clear #2 back. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Mattison has averaged just 4.06 YPC on 584 career carries, including just 3.82 YPC over the past three seasons combined, and he also has a carry success rate of just 43.7% for his career. Additionally, Mattison has averaged just 0.90 yards per route run in his career, so he’s probably not a candidate for a big passing down role.

White had a decent 1.09 yards per route run average in 2023, but he’s still a downgrade from Jacobs in that aspect, as Jacobs averaged 1.24 yards per route run. White will see some passing down work as the lead back, but I wouldn’t expect him to be that productive in that aspect of the game. The Raiders do have passing down specialist Ameer Adbullah, who will likely see a significant situational role. Abdullah is going into his age 31 season and isn’t a real candidate for significant carries, with just 102 carries over the past six seasons combined and a career 3.93 YPC average, but he does have 82 catches over the past three seasons combined and a career 1.24 yards per route run average and, with neither White nor Mattison being great receiver, expect Abdullah to be utilized situationally.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Raiders’ offensive line was above average in 2024, ranking 12th in pass blocking grade on PFF and 14th in run blocking grade, but they could take a little bit of a step back in 2024. The Raiders lost a pair of offensive line starters this off-season, both of whom had above average seasons in 2023, left guard Greg Van Roten, who had a 75.3 PFF grade in 17 starts, and right tackle Jermaine Eleumanor, who had a 68.7 PFF grade in 14 starts. To replace them, the Raiders will start second round rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson at left guard and will promote 2022 7th round pick Thayer Munford to the right tackle job, after he impressed as the swing tackle over the past two seasons, posting PFF grades of 63.2 and 64.1 respectively across 14 total starts.

Powers-Johnson has a lot of upside, but will almost definitely be a downgrade from Van Roten as a rookie, while Munford could be an adequate replacement for Eleumanor, but he’s a projection to a larger role and promoting him to the starting lineup thins out the Raiders’ offensive line depth considerably. To try to replenish offensive line depth, the Raiders used a 3rd round pick on DJ Glaze and signed veterans Cody Whitehair and Andrus Peat in free agency, but it’s unlikely that any will be as good of reserves as Munford has been over the past two seasons.

Whitehair and Peat have plenty of experience, starting 118 games over 8 seasons in the league and 102 games over 9 seasons in the league respectively, Whitehair at guard and center and Peat at tackle and guard. Whitehair finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first 7 seasons in the league, but he fell to a 45.0 PFF grade in 2023 and now is going into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, while Peat has finished below 60 on PFF in four the past six seasons and now heads into his age 31 season. They’re not bad reserve options and neither is the rookie Glaze, but none of them are as good of reserves as Thuyer was before being promoted.

The rest of this offensive line stays the same from a year ago, with Kolton Miller at left tackle, Andre James at center, and Dylan Parham at right guard. All three are at least capable starters, but Parham is the least impressive of the bunch, with PFF grades of 61.9 and 60.4 in two seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2022, while making all 34 starts. He’s still young and could have untapped upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see 2024 be the best season of his career yet, but James and Miller still look like better players.

James is coming off of a strong 2023 season, with a 74.6 PFF grade, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, so he could regress somewhat in 2024. Undrafted in 2019, James became a starter in 2021 and received PFF grades of 64.1 and 62.8 in his first two seasons as a starter, so even if he does regress, he should at least be a capable starter. He’s also only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter in 2024, but it’s more likely that he’s unable to repeat the best season of his career.

Kolton Miller is clearly the best of the bunch. A first round pick in 2018, Miller took a couple years to develop, but he’s finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons and above 80 in three straight seasons. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. He significantly elevates an offensive line that could otherwise be underwhelming, with Jackson Powers-Johnson being a rookie, Andre James a candidate to regress, Dylan Parham only being a capable, but unspectacular starter thus far in his career, and Thayer Munford never being a full-season starter before.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Raiders’ defense was their better side of the ball last season, ranking 8th in DVOA, but they also had next to no injuries on this side of the ball, which is unlikely to happen again. If injuries knock out any of their key players for an extended period of time in 2024, it could be tough for them to repeat last season’s performance. The most important player to stay healthy is edge defender Maxx Crosby, who is one of the best defensive players in the league and a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Fortunately, Crosby is also one of the most durable players in the league, never missing a game in five seasons in the league, despite playing 57.2 snaps per game, including 59.6 snaps per game over the past four seasons, and 63.6 snaps per game over the past two seasons. In 2022, Crosby ranked 1st in the NFL among edge defenders with 1,082 snaps played and in 2023 he again ranked 1st among edge defenders with 1,080. He also remains effective despite his snap counts, receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.1, and 92.1 over the past three seasons respectively, dominating against the run and as a pass rusher. In total, he has 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 49 games over those three seasons. Still only in his age 27 season, I wouldn’t expect anything to change in 2024, barring an unexpected injury.

The Raiders also got a great season out of Malcolm Koonce on the other side of Crosby, as he had a 81.3 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate, despite only being a part-time player (501 total snaps played). Koonce was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and always had potential, but injuries and underwhelming performance limited him to just 116 snaps in his first two seasons before his surprising breakout season in 2023. Koonce is a one-year wonder and could easily regress or miss more time with injury in 2024, but he’s also only in his age 26 season and has always had talent, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue playing at an above average level, even if he isn’t as good as a year ago.

The Raiders could give Koonce an expanded role in 2024, but that might make it more likely that he regresses and his role will largely be dependent on what the Raiders do with Tyree Wilson, who they selected 7th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Wilson had a tough rookie year, missing valuable time in the off-season with injury, falling behind Koonce on the depth chart, and then performing poorly with a 47.1 PFF grade on 493 snaps, struggling against the run and adding just 3.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

Wilson has the upside to be a lot better in year two though and he also has the size (6-6 275) to play inside, so, with Koonce breaking out opposite Crosby, the Raiders could line Wilson up inside more often in pass rushing situations in 2024 if they feel that would get their best players on the field. Wilson will still see some action on the edge though, as the Raiders don’t have much depth behind him, Koonce, and Crosby.

Janarius Robinson and Elerson Smith are the only other edge defenders on the roster who aren’t former undrafted free agents with no NFL experience and Robinson has played just 78 snaps in three seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, while Elerson Smith was also a 4th round pick in 2021 and has played just 121 career snaps, none of which came last season. Maxx Crosby elevates this group significantly by himself, while Malcolm Koonce and Tyree Wilson are young players with upside, Koonce coming off of a breakout season in 2023 and Wilson going 7th overall in last year’s draft, but the Raiders’ lack of depth behind those three hurts their overall grade at this position a little bit.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

One reason the Raiders could have as good of a defensive season as they had last year, even with injuries likely to strike more than they did a year ago, is the addition of interior defender Christian Wilkins, who they added on a 4-year, 110 million dollar deal this off-season. It’s a steep price to pay, with Wilkins now being the second highest paid interior defender in the league, but he could be worth it. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2019, Wilkins finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in Miami, including three straight seasons over 70, culminating with a 2023 season in which he had a career best year as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate.

Wilkins had never been that good as a pass rusher before, but he does have 20.5 sacks, 33 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 81 career games, while also playing the run at an above average level. He’s also a durable every down player, missing just two games due to injury in his career, while averaging 48.7 snaps per game and 790 snaps per season. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, Wilkins should play at a similar level in 2024. Even if he doesn’t match his career best pass rush season from 2023, he should still be an above average every down interior defender.

Wilkins should be an upgrade on Jerry Tillery (67.7 PFF grade on 504 snaps) and Bilal Nichols (51.6 PFF grade on 616 snaps), who weren’t retained this off-season. The Raiders did bring back Adam Butler and John Jenkins from last season and they’ll probably get more interior snaps from Tyree Wilson, as well as more snaps out of Byron Young, a 2023 3rd round pick who struggled on 99 snaps as a rookie, but who has the upside to be a lot better in year two in 2024.

Butler and Jenkins were decent last season, with PFF grades of 526 and 595 on snap counts of 60.1 and 61.2. Butler has been mediocre most of his career though, finishing below 60 on PFF in his other six seasons in the league, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so he’s unlikely to get any better and will probably be mediocre at best. Jenkins, meanwhile, is a career role player who has never played more than the 595 snaps he played last season, playing an average of 315 snaps per season, and now he’s heading into his age 35 season. I would expect both to be underwhelming in 2024. The addition of Christian Wilkins elevates this group, but the rest of this group is pretty mediocre.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Raiders linebacking corps remains the same from a year ago, but there is some potential for regression from top linebacker Robert Spillane, who broke out with a 77.0 PFF grade on 1,100 snaps in 2023. Prior to last season, Spillane, a 2018 undrafted free agent, had never played more than 588 snaps in a season as a part-time linebacker specializing in stopping the run. In 2023, Spillane’s run defense was still by far his best attribute and he actually struggled in coverage a little bit with a 58.9 coverage grade, but his run defense more than made up for it and he played an every down role. Spillane should be an every down player again in 2024, but it’s fair to question whether he can repeat the by far best season of his career again, after previously never exceeding a 66.3 overall grade on PFF in any of his other five seasons in the league.

Divine Deablo also remains in a significant role, after playing 771 snaps a year ago, but he wasn’t nearly as good, finishing with a 60.6 PFF grade. A 2021 3rd round pick, Deablo has been decent, but unspectacular throughout his career, with a 63.2 PFF grade on 297 snaps as a rookie and a 58.4 PFF grade on 463 snaps in his 2nd season in the league in 2022. Now going into his 4th season in the league and his age 26 season, it’s possible he still has some untapped potential and has his best season yet in 2024, but it’s unlikely he’ll be more than a solid starter even if he does take a step forward.

Luke Masterson also returns as the top reserve, after flashing a lot of potential with a 86.9 PFF grade on 182 snaps last season, although that comes after the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled mightily with a 30.8 PFF grade on 344 snaps as a rookie. Going into his 3rd season in the league in 2024, Masterson’s NFL experience is still a small sample size and it remains to be seen what kind of player he would be if forced into significant action for an extended period of time, but most likely he won’t continue the level of play he had in very limited action last season. The Raiders also used a 5th round pick on Tommy Eichenberg to give themselves additional depth, but he most likely will be behind Masterson in the pecking order. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but, in the likely scenario that Robert Spillane regresses, it will be an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Raiders’ cornerback room has undergone significant changes in the past year. Going into last season, their top-3 cornerbacks were Nate Hobbs, Marcus Peters, and Amik Robertson. Peters was cut mid-season, despite receiving a 68.8 PFF grade across 732 snaps, because the Raiders were out of contention and didn’t want him to hit salary escalators in his contract. Peters was replaced by Jack Jones, who was claimed off waivers from the Patriots, with whom he had a falling out with the coaching staff. Robertson then left as a free agent this off-season and was not really replaced, after a 2023 season in which he was decent with a 63.4 PFF grade on 674 snaps.

Nate Hobbs is the one constant, but one constant with him is injuries, as the 2021 5th round pick has missed 11 games in three seasons in the league, while never playing all 17 games in a season. He’s been missed when he’s been on the field, as he’s mostly been an above average starter throughout his career, with PFF grades of 79.1, 60.9, and 69.0. He’s still only going into his age 25 season and has the upside to have a great season in 2024 if he can finally stay healthy, but more likely he’ll miss at least some time with injury at some point.

Jack Jones also has a lot of upside, as the 2022 4th round pick has received PFF grades of 74.7 and 71.6 in his two seasons in the league, but he’s also only played 905 snaps across the two seasons, due to injuries, off-the-field problems, and problems with his coaches. He could develop into an above average starter long-term if he can stay on the field and stay out of trouble, but he’s also a projection to a season-long role and comes with a lot of concerns.

With Robertson gone, the third cornerback job will likely either go to 2023 4th round pick Jakorian Bennett or veteran Brandon Facyson to start the season. Facyson is much more experienced, with 17 starts in 75 games in six seasons in the league, but he’s going into his age 30 season now and he’s mostly struggled throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of the past four seasons, and, as a result of that, he actually played behind the rookie Bennett a year ago, seeing just 44 snaps to Bennett’s 361.

Bennett struggled mightily in his limited action though, receiving a 42.4 PFF grade, and, while he has the upside to be better in year two, he hasn’t shown anything that would suggest he’s deserving of a bigger role and he will likely struggle in that role, assuming he continues being ahead of the veteran Facyson on the depth chart. The Raiders also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on cornerback Decamerion Richardson and he could see a significant role at some point as a rookie, but he is pretty raw and would almost definitely struggle in that role.

While there have been a lot of changes at cornerback, things remain pretty much the same at the safety spot, with Tre’von Moehrig and Marcus Epps remaining the starters. Moehrig was a 2nd round pick in 2021, has made 47 starts in three seasons in the league, and has shown a lot of potential, but he’s also been pretty inconsistent, with PFF grades of 72.5, 54.1, and 70.2 across the three seasons respectively. Only going into his age 25 season, Moehrig still has a lot of upside long-term if he can improve his consistency and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that happened and he had another above average season in 2024, but he could also regress, which would hurt this secondary.

Epps, meanwhile, is a 5-year veteran who has been a full-time starter over the past two seasons, but he’s been pretty mediocre, with PFF grades of 56.6 and 65.4 respectively. The 2019 6th round pick showed a lot of promise in smaller roles earlier in his career, but he hasn’t been able to carry that over to bigger roles and it would surprise me if he was more than a decent starter in 2024. The Raiders also lack depth behind Moehrig and Epps, as their top two reserves a year ago were Isaiah Pola-Mao, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has played 211 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, and Chris Smith, a 2023 5th round pick who played just 22 snaps as a rookie. Both would likely struggle if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This secondary is a young group with potential, with Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones, and Tre’von Moehrig all potentially being above average starters, but they come with a lot of downside as well and the rest of the group is very underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Raiders were a mediocre team a year ago. This year, they should have a slight upgrade at the quarterback position, but they still have one of the worst quarterback rooms in the league and their roster around the quarterback isn’t good enough to compensate. They’re also unlikely to have as few injuries as they did a year ago, when they had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. Overall, it should be tough for this team to qualify for the post-season in the loaded AFC, where they are one of the worst overall teams.

Prediction: 4-13, 3rd in AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers 2024 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

The Chargers transitioned perfectly at the quarterback position, going from 14 years of a future Hall of Fame quarterback Philip Rivers as their starter (2006-2019) to Justin Herbert, the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, who looks like he’s on a similar career track. The Chargers never made a Super Bowl with Rivers though, due to a variety of issues around the quarterback. The Chargers always had stars on both sides of the ball during Rivers’ career, but they struggled with injuries, a lack of depth when injuries struck, and coaching. Now four years into Herbert’s career, the Chargers have had similar issues, leading to Herbert going just 30-32 through four seasons with no playoff wins.

Herbert hasn’t been the problem, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, while receiving PFF grades of 79.9, 90.0, 78.6, and 85.5, but they haven’t had the right supporting cast around him, nor have they had the right coach. Anthony Lynn was fired after Herbert’s rookie year and his replacement Brandon Staley was fired late last season, meaning the Chargers are going onto their third head coach of Herbert’s brief career, but fortunately they landed a great one in Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in his first stint as an NFL head coach with the 49ers from 2011-2014 and who has a career 147-52 record at the collegiate level with a National Championship, consistently getting the most out of his players at every stop.

Harbaugh is the right man for the job, but it could be a couple years before he gets this team in contention. Not only is this team coming off of an underwhelming 5-12 season, but the Chargers had salary cap issues this off-season and had to part ways with several key players, while not having a lot of financial flexibility to replace them. Herbert is coming off of the worst statistical career of his career, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, but it wasn’t really his fault because the Chargers had a lot of issues around him on offense and he still finished 9th among quarterbacks in the league in terms of PFF grade.

Herbert also missed four games with injury last season and was replaced by Easton Stick, who lost all of those games, while completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.49 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Stick was a 5th round pick in 2019, but last season was the first action of his career. Without much financial flexibility this off-season, the Chargers brought Stick back as the backup for another year. You could do worse than him as a backup, but you could also do a lot better and if Herbert misses more time with injury, the Chargers would be in a lot of trouble. The Chargers will obviously be hoping that doesn’t happen, because Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Chargers’ receiving corps was an issue last season. Going into the season, it didn’t look like an issue because they had veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who were just two years removed from being one of the few wide receiver duos in the league to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2021, and they added 2023 first round pick Quentin Johnston to the mix as well. Williams and Allen played well when healthy, with yards per route run averages of 2.33 and 2.36, but Williams went down for the season after 3 games, while Allen missed 4 games of his own. On top of that, Quentin Johnston struggled as a rookie, finishing with just a 38/431/2 slash line and a 0.88 yards per route run average, despite plenty of opportunity.

Things are not looking better for this group in 2024. To get out of their tough cap situation, Allen and Williams were both let go this off-season, Allen in a trade for a 4th round pick and Williams as a cap casualty, owed 23.1 million and 20 million respectively going into their age 32 and age 30 seasons respectively. To replace them, the Chargers will need more out of Quentin Johnston in his second season in the league and they will also be hoping for significant contributions from top holdover Joshua Palmer, second round rookie Ladd McConkey, and veteran free agent acquisition DJ Chark.

Johnston has a lot of talent and could be significantly better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee. Palmer is their top returning receiver with a 38/581/2 slash line and a 1.71 yards per route run average, but the 2021 3rd round pick has never been a full-time starter and he only has a career 1.36 yards per route run average. McConkey has upside, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Chark is experienced, but has just a 1.39 yards per route run average in his 6-year career and he’s missed 30 games with injury in those 6 seasons. The Chargers also have 2023 5th round pick Derius Davis, who might have some upside, but he played just 149 snaps as a rookie and averaged just 0.90 yards per route run. Overall, it’s a pretty underwhelming group.

The Chargers can’t expect much out of their tight ends either. Gerald Everett wasn’t great as their starting tight end last season, with a 51/411/3 slash line and a 1.26 yards per route run average, but he’s no longer with the team and the tight ends the Chargers added to replace him, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, both look like downgrades. Dissly has averaged just 1.23 yards per route run and 251 yards per season over the past four seasons, while Hurst has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, was even worse in 2023, when he had a 18/184/1 slash line with a 0.82 yards per route run, and is now going into his age 31 season.

The Chargers still have Donald Parham, who had a 27/285/4 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average as the #2 tight end last season, but that was a career high in yardage for the career backup and he only has a career 1.32 yards per route run average, even in a limited role. This looks like one of the worst overall receiving corps in the league, even worse than a year ago, when they at least had Keenan Allen for most of the season before he got hurt.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

With the Chargers’ receiving corps being the way it is, their best path to improving on offense this season is to have a better running game and offensive line. In 2023, the Chargers ranked 27th in the NFL with 3.81 YPC, while their offensive line ranked dead last in PFF run blocking grade, though they at least ranked 13th in pass blocking grade. To improve their offensive line, the Chargers used the 5th overall pick on Joe Alt, who will instantly slot in at right tackle, and signed center Bradley Bozeman to a 1-year, 1.125 million dollar deal in free agency.

Alt should immediately be an upgrade over incumbent Trey Pipkins, who was marginal with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Pipkins has mostly been a marginal starter throughout his career (41 starts in five seasons in the league) and is best suited to be a swing tackle, which he will be now. Bozeman, meanwhile, should be a steal on a cheap 1-year deal, having finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons (76 starts). He’s going into his age 30 season now, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Will Clapp, who had a 56.7 PFF grade in 11 starts at center last season and who is no longer with the Chargers.

Guard was also a position of weakness in 2023 and, without any additions being made this off-season, the Chargers will instead be hoping for better play out of their incumbent starters, Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer. It’s very possible the Chargers get that, though both would probably still be underwhelming even in a best case scenario. Johnson has the most upside, as he was a first round pick in 2022, and he had a decent rookie year with a 64.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, before falling to a 57.6 grade in 2023. There’s a good chance he at least bounces back to his rookie year form in 2024 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his third season in the league be his best yet.

Salyer, on the other hand, was just a 6th round pick in 2022. He surprised as a rookie with a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts at left tackle as an injury replacement, but he couldn’t keep up that level of play in a new spot at right guard in 2023, finishing with a 54.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. Now going into his third season in the league in 2024, Salyer has bounce back potential, but it’s worth noting that he wasn’t highly drafted and that he’s playing a different position than where he originally found some success, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling.

The Chargers will need better play out of Johnson and Salyer in 2024 because their only other options on the interior of their offensive line are Brenden James, a 2021 5th round pick who has played just 264 mediocre snaps in his career, and Jordan McFadden, a 2023 5th round pick, who struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 163 snaps as a rookie last season. Both are underwhelming options even as interior reserves, which is what they will be, barring injuries.

The Chargers best offensive lineman by far last season was left tackle Rashawn Slater, who had a 76.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, excelling in pass protection, with just 3 sacks and 7 hits allowed all season. A first round pick in 2021, Slater also excelled as a rookie with a 83.6 PFF grade, with a season mostly lost due to injury in 2022 in between (175 snaps played). Still only in his age 25 season, Slater should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and could potentially get even better, now in his fourth season in the league. The offensive line should be better with the additions of Joe Alt and Bradley Bozeman, as well as potential bounce back seasons from their guards Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer, but there are still some reasons to be concerned about this group.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another move the Chargers made this off-season towards trying to improve their running game was hiring offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who is one of the best running game offensive coordinators in the league. Roman has had a lot of success with mobile quarterbacks, getting career best years out of Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson over the past decade or so, starting as an NFL coordinator with Harbaugh and the 49ers. Justin Herbert isn’t the same kind of athlete those quarterbacks are, but he’s a good runner for a quarterback, with 4.07 YPC on 224 carries in four seasons in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he reached a new career high in carries, while becoming more efficient, with Roman now calling the shots.

The Chargers also overhauled their running back room this off-season, bringing in a couple backs from Roman’s last stop in Baltimore, Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. The Chargers’ run blocking was a big problem last season, but the running backs themselves were also a big part of the issue and, as such, the Chargers let their top two backs, Austin Ekeler (3.51 YPC on 179 carries) and Joshua Kelly (3.79 YPC on 107 carries) leave this off-season, replacing them with Edwards and Dobbins.

Edwards and Dobbins were teammates for the past four seasons in Baltimore, but weren’t active in the same game that often because of injuries, with Dobbins missing all but 9 games over the past three seasons, first tearing his ACL in 2021 and then tearing his achilles in 2023, and Edwards being limited to 26 games over that time period, also tearing his ACL around the same time as Dobbins did in 2021. Dobbins has shown plenty of potential in his career since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2020, averaging 5.76 YPC on 234 carries in 24 games, but it’s unclear if he’ll have the same level of explosiveness after two major injuries cost him most of the past three seasons. Dobbins also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson, who is the primary focus of opponents’ run defenses.

Edwards has a career 4.86 YPC average on 699 carries in 6 seasons in the league, but he also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson anymore. In the 24 games Dobbins has played in his career, Edwards has averaged 9.17 carries per game, as opposed to 9.75 carries per game for Dobbins and I would expect a similar split in 2024, though Edwards will probably end up leading the team in carries because he’s less likely to miss time with injury than Dobbins, never having any injury issues in his career aside from the torn ACL that cost him about a season and a half from 2021-2022.

Both backs are good fits for the scheme and, with the Chargers’ run blocking likely being a lot better this season, both backs should be significantly more effective on the ground than Ekeler and Kelley were a year ago. Neither Edwards nor Dobbins contribute much in the passing game, with career averages of 0.78 yards per route run and 0.59 yards per route run respectively, but Greg Roman’s offense doesn’t usually target running backs out of the backfield much anyway.

If either Edwards or Dobbins misses more time with injury, the other would likely take on a much bigger role, with their backup being either 6th round rookie Kimani Vidal or 2022 4th round pick Isaiah Spiller, who has a career 2.49 YPC average on 55 carries. Both would be underwhelming options. This overhauled backfield isn’t a bad group and they should be more effective than the Chargers’ running backs a year ago, but they aren’t a great backfield either, lacking high end talent.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Chargers’ defense was also a problem a year ago and probably their biggest weakness was the interior defender position. Austin Johnson (641 snaps), Sebastian Joseph-Day (560 snaps), Morgan Fox (437 snaps), Nick Williams (399 snaps), Scott Matlock (266 snaps), and Otito Ogbonnia (223 snaps) all saw significant action at the interior defender spot for the Chargers last season and all finished with grades below 60 on PFF, some well below 60. Johnson, Joseph-Day, and Williams, who had grades of 45.7, 59.7, and 59.7, are no longer with the team, but the Chargers didn’t do much to replace them and this still figures to be a position of weakness in 2024.

Fox, Ogbonnia, and Matlock all figure to have significant roles and free agent addition Poona Ford and 4th round rookie Justin Eboigbe likely will as well. Ford was a good cheap signing on a 1-year, 1.79 million dollar deal. He only played 151 snaps in a deep position group with the Bills last season, but he finished above 60 on PFF in 4 of the previous 5 seasons with the Seahawks prior to joining the Bills, on an average of 570 snaps played per season. He’s at his best against the run, but isn’t a bad pass rusher, with 8.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 84 career games. He figures to at least have a base package role with the Chargers and could perform well in that capacity.

Morgan Fox is at least a useful interior pass rusher. He finished with an overall 58.0 PFF grade last season because of his issues against the run, but he did add 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s largely been the case for him throughout his career, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF as a run defender in six straight seasons, but has added 24 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate in 99 games. He should remain a similar player in 2024, though it’s a slight concern that he’s now going into his age 30 season.

The rest of this group should be mediocre at best, though they are young, so they at least have theoretical upside. The rookie Eboigbe could be a useful player long-term, but it would be a surprise if he contributed in a significant way in year one. Matlock was rookie last season, but he was only a 6th round pick and, even if he’s better in year two, he could still struggle, as he had a terrible 36.8 PFF grade last season. Ogbonnia was just a 5th round pick in 2022 and hasn’t shown much of anything in two years in the league, with PFF grades of 43.2 and 50.4 across 361 total snaps. It’s possible one takes a big step forward this season, but most likely they’ll all struggle. Even if they’re marginally better than a year ago, this should still be a weak position group.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position was supposed to be a big strength for the Chargers last season, with a dominant duo of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Mack held up his end of the bargain, dominating with a 91.8 PFF grade on 934 snaps, playing the run at a high level and adding 17 sacks, 12 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate, but Bosa was limited to just 320 snaps in 9 games due to injury. Bosa still played at a pretty high level when on the field, with a PFF grade, 6.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate, but he wasn’t at his best, after exceeding 80 on PFF in 6 of the previous 7 seasons.

Bosa should bounce back in 2024 if he’s healthy, only going into his age 29 season, but he’s had injury issues for years, missing 38 games in eight seasons in the league, including 20 games over the past two seasons, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he missed more time this season. He should still give them more than he gave them a year ago, which would be a boost for this defense. Unfortunately, there’s a good chance Mack doesn’t give them as much as he did a year ago, now going into his age 33 season.

In fact, Mack looked like he was declining going into last season, receiving PFF grades of 73.0 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, while totaling 14 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 24 games, after finishing above 85 on PFF in the previous seven seasons, with 70.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 110 games in those seven seasons. Mack bounced back to his prime form in 2023, but he could easily regress significantly again in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

With Bosa missing significant time last season, the Chargers’ expected third edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu had to play 852 snaps and he did pretty well, finishing with a 71.0 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2023, Tuipulotu could be even better in year two, but he’ll probably play a smaller role, unless Mack or Bosa miss extended time with injury. The Chargers also added veteran Bud Dupree in free agency to give them additional depth.

Dupree is a 9-year veteran who has started 99 of the 119 games he’s played in his career, while averaging 48.0 snaps per game and 634 snaps per season, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’s best off in a reserve role. With Mack, Bosa, and Tuipulotu ahead of him on the depth chart, Dupree won’t play that many snaps in 2024, barring injury, which is a better role for him. This is a deep and talented edge defender group overall.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Eric Kendricks (847 snaps) and Kenneth Murray (968 snaps) were the Chargers top-2 linebackers a year ago and both are no longer with the team. Kendricks had a 72.3 PFF grade last season and was only let go because the Chargers had a tough cap situation and he was owed 6.5 million in what would have been his age 32 season in 2024. Murray, on the other hand, only had a 52.9 PFF grade, so he wouldn’t be missed too much, if not for the fact that the Chargers didn’t really replace him or Kendricks adequately.

Added to the mix this off-season were Denzel Perryman, a free agent coming over on a cheap 1-year, 2.3 million dollar deal, and Junior Colson, a 3rd round rookie. The Chargers also could give bigger roles to 2023 3rd round pick Daiyan Henley, who played just 54 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Niemann, a 2021 6th round pick who has played just 322 snaps in three seasons in the league, 247 of which came last season. Perryman is by far the most experienced of the bunch, going into his 10th season in the league.

Perryman has been a good run defender throughout his career, but he’s also consistently struggled in coverage and, as a result, only has played 38.8 snaps per game in his career. He’s also missed 39 games with injury in 9 seasons in the league and is now going into his age 32 season. He would be best as a pure base package run defender, but, given the state of this linebacking corps, he’ll probably have to play a bigger role, unless the young linebackers exceed expectations. This is an overall underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback was a problem for the Chargers’ defense last season as only one of their top-4 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played finished above 60 on PFF. That one cornerback was Asante Samuel, a 2021 2nd round pick who broke out with a 73.9 PFF grade on 1,111 snaps in 2023, after improving from a 56.4 PFF grade on 693 snaps as a rookie to a 63.6 PFF grade on 971 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022. Samuel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he’s also highly talented and only going into his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being an above average starter or even if he got better in 2024, now his 4th season in the league.

The Chargers didn’t retain Michael Davis, who struggled with a 56.5 PFF grade on 886 snaps in 15 games as the other starting cornerback in 2023, but his replacement, ex-Titan Kristian Fulton, isn’t necessarily going to be any better. Fulton was a 2nd round pick in 2020, but he was inconsistent throughout his four years in Tennessee, maxing out with a 66.1 PFF grade in 2021, missing 25 games due to injury, and finishing below 60 on PFF twice, including a career worst 46.4 PFF grade on 644 snaps in 12 games (11 starts) in 2023. Fulton is still relatively young in his age 26 season and was not a bad flier on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar contract, but time is running out for him to develop into even a consistently average starting cornerback.

Ja’Sir Taylor remains as the likely 3rd cornerback, despite finishing with a 56.2 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2023, in the first extended action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. It’s possible he could be better in his third season in the league in 2024, but he didn’t come into the league with a high upside and he’s really only likely to be their 3rd cornerback again because of the lack of a better option, with the Chargers other cornerback options being 2022 7th round pick Deane Leonard, who had a 57.3 PFF grade on 222 snaps in the first real action of his career in 2023, as well as rookies Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still, a pair of 5th round picks who would both almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie.

At safety, the Chargers finally got a healthy season out of Derwin James, after he had missed 32 games in the previous four seasons combined, not making it through a full season without missing time since his rookie season in 2018. However, James was not nearly the same player in 2023 as he had been in the past, finishing with a 60.1 PFF grade after surpassing 75 in each of his previous seasons in the league. James remained a great run defender, but had a lot of struggles in coverage. It’s possible his injuries have permanently sapped his abilities, but he’s also only going into his age 28 season, so he could have a lot of bounce back potential if he can regain his past form and continue avoiding injuries. Those are big ifs though.

Fortunately, a breakout season by the Chargers other safety Alohi Gilman made up for James disappointing. Gilman’s breakout season kind of came out of nowhere, as he was a 6th round pick in 2020, never played more than 474 snaps in a season prior to 2023, and had finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 86.1 PFF grade across 928 snaps in 2023. The market didn’t seem to buy that Gilman would continue playing at that level, leading to him re-signing with the Chargers for just 10.125 million over 2 years to this off-season, and it’s very possible he regresses at least somewhat in 2024, as he is the definition of a one-year wonder, but at least his regression could be offset by better play from Derwin James.

Dean Marlowe was the Chargers’ top reserve safety a year ago, with a 60.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season, so that role will likely go to JT Woods. Woods was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and came into the league with a lot of potential, but he’s only played 91 snaps in two seasons in the league thus far. He’s unproven, but he could still have upside and isn’t a bad option as a top reserve. The Chargers still have issues at the cornerback position, but their secondary isn’t that bad overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers finally seem to have found the right head coach and, with quarterback Justin Herbert already in place, the Chargers have the all important head coach/quarterback combo correct. Unfortunately, the rest of this roster isn’t in great shape, after a 5-12 finish in 2023 and an off-season of salary cap problems, and it may take a couple years for Harbaugh to fully build the kind of team he wants to build. I would still expect this team to finish with a better record in 2024 than they had in 2023, but it will be tough for them to make the playoffs in the loaded AFC.

Update: I still don’t have the Chargers as a playoff team, but they have one of the weakest schedules in the conference, which helps their chances.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC West

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