2024 NFL Season Previews

Denver Broncos 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Broncos

Quarterbacks

The Broncos won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, but they haven’t made the playoffs since, the second longest streak of missing the post-season in the league. The quarterback position has been a big part of the problem. Peyton Manning retired after that Super Bowl victory and the Broncos subsequently started eleven different quarterbacks over the next six seasons, none of whom had any sustained success. Fed up with their quarterback carousel, the Broncos made a splash move during the 2022 off-season, acquiring veteran Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seahawks in a trade that cost the Broncos two first round picks, two second round picks, and a trio of players.

The Broncos felt Wilson was the missing piece on a Super Bowl contending team, but instead Wilson ended up regressing mightily, completing just 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 30 starts, while going just 11-19, with no playoff appearances. Making matters worse, the Broncos gave Wilson a new 5-year, 242.5 million dollar deal when they acquired him. This off-season, the Broncos moved on from Wilson, despite owing him 39 million guaranteed, most of which they will still have to pay him, even after Wilson signed with the Steelers. Releasing Wilson this off-season ensures the Broncos won’t have to pay him in 2025, when he would have been guaranteed 37 million had he stayed on the roster in 2024, but the Broncos are still paying a big salary in 2024 to a player who isn’t even on their roster.

Still having to pay Wilson’s salary, the Broncos lacked the financial flexibility to add another starting caliber quarterback this off-season and were basically forced to choose between using a high draft pick on a cost-controlled young quarterback or starting a backup caliber quarterback like Jarrett Stidham, Wilson’s backup in 2023, who has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 pass attempts in five seasons in the league. The Broncos went with the former option, but the problem was five quarterbacks were drafted in the eleven picks before them in this year’s draft, forcing the Broncos to unsettle for Bo Nix, the 6th quarterback in this draft class. Nix was a productive college player, but doesn’t have elite physical traits and is already going into his age 24 season. Had there not been an early run on quarterbacks in this year’s draft, Nix could have easily been a second or third round pick.

Including the two first round picks they gave up for Wilson, the Broncos have now used their last three first round picks on quarterbacks, plus a pair of second round picks they gave up for Wilson. The Broncos were also missing their second round pick in this year’s draft from a trade for head coach Sean Payton, who disappointed in his first season in Denver. Wilson still getting paid most of his salary in 2024 also made it tough for the Broncos to build this team around the quarterback, after finishing just 24th in DVOA in 2023. The result is a roster that looks like one of the worst in the league. Unless Nix or Stidham can outperform expectations, the Broncos also have one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. The Broncos may be better set up for the future now as a result of ditching Wilson and drafting Nix, but, especially in the loaded AFC, the Broncos look like an extreme longshot to end their post-season drought in 2024.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

With limited financial flexibility, the Broncos moved on from wide receiver Jerry Jeudy this off-season, trading him to the Browns for just a pair of late round picks to get out of the 12.987 million they would have owed him this season. Jeudy never lived up to being selected in the first round in 2019, but he’ll still be missed, as he was only slightly behind the team leader in terms of receiving yards and yards per route run at the wide receiver position, with a 54/758/2 slash line and a 1.65 yards per route run average.

Courtland Sutton was the team leader at the wide receiver position with a 1.66 yards per route run average and a 59/777/10 slash line. Sutton seemingly had a breakout season in his second season in the league in 2019 with a 72/1112/6 slash line and a 2.08 yards per route run average, but he missed almost all of 2020 with injury and hasn’t been the same in three seasons since, averaging 794 yards per season, while totaling a 1.54 yards per route run average. Now going into his age 29 season, Sutton is unlikely to bounce back to his 2019 form and is an underwhelming #1 wide receiver, but he’s still a solid wide receiver overall.

To replace Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos will give more playing time to 2023 2nd round pick Marvin Mims and they also signed veteran Josh Reynolds to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal. Mims didn’t play much as a rookie (384 snaps), but he had a decent 1.54 yards per route run average and he has the upside to translate that to a larger role in his second season in the league in 2024, so he might not be much of a downgrade from Jeudy. Reynolds, meanwhile, is a mediocre veteran with an average of 1.31 yards per route run and 494 yards per season over the past three seasons, but he should be an upgrade over Brandon Johnson (343 snaps) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (428 snaps), who combined to average just 1.02 yards per route run last season.

Both Johnson and Humphrey will be reserves at best this season, if they even make the roster. Undrafted free agents in 2019 and 2022 respectively, they have averaged just 0.94 and 1.01 yards per route run respectively in their careers. Most likely the Broncos’ top reserves will be 4th round rookie Troy Franklin and veteran Tim Patrick, who is coming off of two straight seasons missed due to separate injuries. Tim Patrick has a career 1.48 yards per route run average and had slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 in his last two healthy seasons, but it’s unclear how effective he’ll be after two straight major injuries, especially since he’s going into his age 31 season now.

At tight end, Adam Trautman started for most of the season, but he struggled mightily as a receiver, with just a 22/204/3 slash line and a 0.59 yards per route run average. He’s been better than that in the past, but not much, with an average of 0.96 yards per route run and 82 catches in 60 games in four seasons in the league. Backup tight end Lucas Krull wasn’t much better, with an average of 0.73 yards per route run in the first significant action of the 2022 undrafted free agent’s career.

Fortunately, the Broncos are getting Greg Dulcich back from an injury plagued season and he’s a much better receiving option, as the 2022 3rd round pick had a 1.30 yards per route run average and a 33/411/2 slash line as a rookie, before being limited to 32 snaps last season. He should be the primary receiving tight end, with Trautman serving more as a blocker, an aspect of the game he’s much better in. This is still an underwhelming receiving corps though.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Broncos were also unable to keep center Lloyd Cushenberry this off-season, watching him signing with the Titans on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal after a 2023 season in which he made all 17 starts and finished with a 73.2 PFF grade. Not only is that a big loss, but the Broncos also didn’t really do anything to replace him. Instead, they will have a three way competition for the starting job between 2022 5th round pick Luke Wattenberg, who has played just 129 career snaps, 2023 7th round pick Alex Forsyth, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and veteran Sam Mustipher, their only off-season addition, who has mostly been underwhelming in 42 starts in five seasons in the league with the Bears and Ravens. 

By virtue of being the only one with experience, Mustipher is probably the favorite for the job, but it’s very possible that multiple of these players end up making starts as the Broncos try to find an answer at the position, an answer that probably isn’t on this roster. The rest of this offensive line stays the same from a year ago, but they’re unlikely to have the same health as they did a year ago, when those four combined to miss just one game, and they really lack depth behind them, which could easily get exposed this season when injuries strike. Also of concern is the fact that their tackles are both on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Garett Bolles going into his age 32 season and right tackle Mike McGlinchey going into his age 30 season. 

Neither tackle has shown signs of decline yet, but both could start declining in 2024. Bolles has finished with a PFF grade above 70 in all seven seasons in the league (99 starts), while McGlinchey has finished above 60 in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, so both are starting from a pretty high base point, but it would still noticeably hurt this offensive line if one or both wasn’t as good as a year ago. If either of them miss time in 2024, they would likely be replaced by either Quinn Bailey, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has played just 279 mediocre snaps in his career, or Matt Peart, a 2020 3rd round pick who has been middling at best in 7 career starts.

At guard, the Broncos have Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz on the left and right side respectively. Powers is only a marginal starter, making 53 starts in the past four seasons with PFF grades of 59.4, 66.3, 62.9, and 61.5, but Meinerz is one of the best guards in the league and arguably the Broncos’ best player overall. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Meinerz has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 67.4 PFF grade as a rookie to a 77.7 PFF grade in his second season to a 83.7 PFF grade last season. 

Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect Meinerz to continue playing at a high level in 2024, even if he might not quite match last season’s dominant performance. If either Powers or Meinerz misses time, the Broncos would probably turn to Calvin Throckmorton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who has made 27 starts over the past three seasons, but who has posted PFF grades of 42.4, 38.4, and 47.9 over those three seasons. The Broncos had an above average offensive line a year ago, but they lost center Lloyd Cushenberry, they probably won’t have the same health as they had a year ago, their tackles are on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is a big problem, so I would expect this offensive line to be significantly worse than it was a year ago, when they ranked 5th on PFF in pass block grade and 4th in run block grade.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Javonte Williams was the Broncos lead back last season and struggled mightily, with an average of 3.57 YPC on 217 carries. He was in his first year back from a torn ACL and the 2021 2nd round pick had averaged 4.43 YPC on 250 carries in the year and a half before his injury, so he has some bounce back potential in 2024, another year removed from that ACL tear. Williams also was useful as a receiver last season, with a 47/228/2 slash line and a 1.34 yards per route run average, in line with his career average of 1.24. However, there is still going to be an open competition for roles in this backfield, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Williams saw a smaller role in 2024.

Williams had a passing down role last season, but Samaje Perine was the primary passing down back and was more effective. Perine only had 53 carries, taking advantage of defenses expecting the pass to average 4.49 YPC on those carries, but he added a 50/455/0 slash line and averaged 2.09 yards per route run as a receiver. He only has a career 1.35 yards per route run average, so he probably won’t be as effective in that aspect again in 2024, but there’s a good chance he continues being the primary passing down back. He only has 454 carries in seven seasons in the league though (64.9 carries per season) and probably isn’t a realistic option for a bigger role as a runner.

Jaleel McLaughin flashed potential as a change of pace option last season, despite being an undrafted rookie, averaging 5.39 YPC on 76 carries, while adding a 31/160/2 slash line and 1.63 yards per route run as a receiver. He’s undersized (5-7 187) and unproven and probably not a real candidate for a big workload, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he saw more work as a runner and a pass catcher in year two. The Broncos also used a 5th round pick on Audric Estime and he could earn a role in this backfield even as a rookie. Most likely, Williams will remain the lead back, Perine the passing down back, McLaughlin the change of pace back, and Estime will be a deep reserve, but playing time is up for grabs in an unsettled position group, after averaging 4.01 YPC as a team last season (21st in the NFL), despite an offensive line was one of the best in the league in run blocking

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

With limited financial flexibility, their first round pick being spent on a quarterback, and no second round pick after the Sean Payton trade last off-season, the Broncos had very limited avenues to improve their defense this off-season, a big problem considering the Broncos finished last season 30th in defensive DVOA. In fact, in terms of snaps played, the Broncos brought back 8 of their top-12 on defense from a year ago and most of the players they didn’t retain were solid players who either weren’t adequately replaced or who were at least not upgraded on.

The exception is at the interior defender position, where the Broncos let go of Jonathan Harris, who had a 52.0 PFF grade on 529 snaps in 2023, and upgraded on him by acquiring veteran John Franklin-Myers from the Jets in a trade for a late round pick. Franklin-Myers was then given a restructured 2-year, 15 million dollar deal after being acquired. Franklin-Myers has lined up on the edge and on the interior throughout his career and has consistently gotten pressure regardless of where he’s lined up, totaling 17.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate over the past four seasons, while posting PFF grades of 71.5, 80.3, 82.6, and 70.4 on snap counts of 500, 717, 643, and 626 respectively. He’s not as good against the run and he probably won’t be as efficient of a pass rusher with the Broncos since he’ll be lining up primarily on the interior, where it’s tougher to get consistent pressure, but he should still be a very useful interior pass rusher and a big upgrade over Jonathan Harris.

Along with Franklin-Myers, Zach Allen and DJ Jones will also play significant roles at the interior defender spot. Allen and Jones were added as free agents in the 2023 off-season and 2022 off-season respectively on contracts worth 45.75 million over 3 years and 30 million over 3 years respectively. Allen lived up to his contract in his first season in Denver last season, with a 71.9 PFF grade on 913 snaps, his second straight above average season (72.7 grade on 660 snaps in 2022), after the 2019 3rd round pick struggled in his first three seasons in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons. Only in his age 27 season, Allen seems to have permanently turned a corner as a player and should remain an above average every down player. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 30 games over the past two seasons, but he’s also a capable run defender.

Jones, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disappointment in two years in Denver, with a 63.6 PFF grade on 558 snaps in 2022 and a 56.2 PFF grade on 568 snaps in 2023. He had a 73.7 PFF grade on 654 snaps in his final season in San Francisco in 2021, which is why he got that big contract from the Broncos, but he looks like a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, finishing below 70 on PFF in his other six seasons in the league and below 60 in three of those six seasons. He’s been a decent pass rusher in two seasons in Denver, with 4 sacks, 3 hits, and a 7.1% pressure rate in 31 games, but he’s consistently struggled against the run. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

Franklin-Myers, Allen, and Jones figure to play the vast majority of the snaps at the interior defender position for the Broncos in 2024, but if any of them get hurt, the Broncos would be in trouble because their depth is very suspect behind their top-3. Matt Henningsen is a 2022 6th round pick who has played 456 mediocre snaps in two seasons in the league. Malcolm Roach is a 2020 undrafted free agent who has played just 258 snaps per season in four seasons in the league and has mostly struggled, finishing below 50 on PFF in three of those four seasons. Angelo Blackson is going into his 10th season in the league, but has only once finished above 60 on PFF, way back in 2017, while averaging 374 snaps per season, and now he heads into his age 32 season and is unlikely to improve. Adding John Franklin-Myers improves this group and he and Zach Allen should be a solid duo together inside, but there are still concerns with this group overall.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Not much changes at the edge defender position, which is not a bad thing because their top-3 of Jonathon Cooper (836 snaps), Nik Bonitto (524 snaps), and Baron Browning (445 snaps) was pretty solid a year ago. The Broncos also add third round rookie Jonah Elliss to the mix. He might not play a big role as a rookie, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Ronnie Perkins, who had a 38.9 PFF grade in the first 149 snaps of his 3-year career in 2023.

Baron Browning played the fewest snaps of the Broncos top-3 in 2023, but he was the best of the bunch with a 74.5 PFF grade and only played so few snaps because he missed seven games. His absence was noticeable, as the Broncos were noticeably better on defense when he was on the field. He was at his best against the run, but also was a very effective pass rusher, with 4.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.2% pressure rate. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Browning wasn’t as good in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.9 and 55.3 on snap counts of 528 and 569 respectively, so he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only in his age 25 season, so he might have permanently turned a corner as a player and it’s possible he could be even better in his 4th season in the league in 2024.

Cooper and Bonitto were not as good against the run as Browning, but both were effective pass rushers, with Cooper totaling 8.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate and Bonitto totaling 8 sacks, 13 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. A 7th round pick in 2021, Cooper was not as good in his first two seasons in the league, with a combined 9.1% pressure rate, so it’s possible he regresses, but he’s also still relatively young in his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner. 

Bonitto, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and struggled with a 52.4 PFF grade on 357 snaps as a rookie, but he too is young in his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner. Browning, Cooper, Bonitto are all one-year wonders in terms of playing at the level they played at least season, but they’re also all pretty young and could continue playing at a similar level to a year ago and the Broncos added extra young depth with third round rookie Jonah Elliss. This is a solid position group overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In the linebacking corps, the big change is the Broncos lost Josey Jewell, who signed with the Panthers on a 3-year, 18.75 million, and replaced him with Cody Barton on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal, which should be a noticeable downgrade. While Jewell had a solid 67.2 PFF grade on 796 snaps last season, Barton had a 53.9 PFF grade on 844 snaps and has finished below 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league. Even in his best season in 2022, when he had a 63.7 PFF grade on 894 snaps, he still would have been a downgrade from how Jewell performed a year ago.

Barton will start next to Alex Singleton, who will remain in an every down role after playing 1,089 snaps in 2023. Singleton is a good run defender, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four straight seasons and above 70 on PFF in run defense grade in three straight seasons, but he struggles in pass coverage, finishing below 60 on PFF in coverage grade in three of the past four seasons, including 2023, when he had a 78.2 run defense grade, but a 42.9 pass defense grade, leading to an overall 61.2 grade. Now going into his age 31 season, Singleton could start to decline even as a run defender and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finished the season as a below average overall every down linebacker.

For depth behind their two every down linebackers, the Broncos have Jonas Griffith and Drew Sanders. Griffith, a 2020 undrafted free agent, flashed potential with a 69.1 PFF grade on 255 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021, but he fell to 52.9 on 336 snaps in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 with injury, so he’s a pretty underwhelming reserve option. Sanders, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but struggled mightily with a 37.2 PFF grade on 260 snaps as a rookie and is questionable for the start of the season after an off-season injury. Overall, this is a pretty underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Broncos lost a couple starters in the secondary, releasing safety Justin Simmons ahead of a 14.5 million dollar salary in 2024 and not re-signing cornerback Fabian Moreau as a free agent. To replace them, the Broncos signed safety Brandon Jones to a 3-year, 20 million dollar deal and cornerback Levi Wallace to a 1-year, 1.3 million dollar deal. Simmons had a 67.9 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, but he was heading into his age 31 season, so it’s understandable the Broncos moved on and signed a cheaper, younger replacement. 

Jones has only started 30 of the 54 games he’s played in four seasons in the league and he was mediocre in his first three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 60.8, 53.4, and 61.1, before having a mini breakout year with a 76.8 PFF grade on 464 snaps in 2023 (6 starts in 16 games). It’s unclear if he can translate that to a starting role in 2024 and I would expect him to at least regress somewhat in a bigger role, but he’s only in his age 26 season and is a former 3rd round pick, so he at least has upside.

Moreau, meanwhile, started the final 11 games of last season and had a decent 62.4 PFF grade. Wallace isn’t a downgrade from him, but he isn’t really an upgrade either. Wallace has started 63 of 76 games played over the past five seasons with mostly middling results, finishing with PFF grades of 68.6, 60.1, 66.5, 62.8, and 57.8 respectively. He’s still only in his age 29 season, so he could continue having similar results in 2024. 

Wallace will start outside opposite #1 cornerback Pat Surtain, with Ja’Quan McMillan on the slot in sub packages. Surtain, a first round pick in 2021, looked like one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2022, finishing with a 86.8 PFF grade, but he fell to a 69.0 grade in 2023, in line with his 66.1 grade as a rookie in 2021. Still only in his age 24 season, Surtain has a huge upside long-term and could easily bounce back and be one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2024 and beyond, but that’s not a guarantee. 

McMillan, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2023, but had a 68.4 PFF grade as a rookie on 669 snaps. It’s only been a year since he went completely undrafted, so it’s possible he could regress in 2024, but there’s also a good chance he remains a solid slot cornerback. Behind their top-3 cornerbacks, the Broncos have Riley Moss, a 2023 3rd round pick who played 25 snaps as a rookie, and Damari Mathis, a 2022 4th round pick who had a decent rookie year with a 65.6 PFF grade on 794 snaps, before regressing mightily to a 35.2 PFF grade on 440 snaps in 2023. Both Moss and Mathis have decent upside and should provide solid depth.

At safety, Jones will start opposite PJ Locke, who took over as the starter mid-season when Kareem Jackson was suspended, benched, and released. Locke had a solid 64.0 PFF grade 538 snaps last season, but the 2019 undrafted free agent is still very inexperienced, having played just 145 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season. It’s possible he could continue being a decent starter over the course of a full season, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he struggled with his expanded, season-long role.

The Broncos don’t have a choice but to start Locke because their other options are poor. Caden Sterns, a 2021 5th round pick, has played just 587 snaps in three seasons in the league, with just 2 snaps last season, while Delarrin Turner-Yell, a 2022 5th round pick, struggled mightily with a 40.9 PFF grade on 212 snaps in the first real defensive action of his career in 2023, after playing just one snap as a rookie. Both have theoretical upside, but both would almost definitely struggle if forced into a starting role by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This secondary has one top end talent in Patrick Surtain, but the rest of the group is pretty questionable.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Broncos spent their 2022 and 2023 first and second round picks on a quarterback who is no longer on the roster, but will still collect about 38 million from the Broncos in 2024. They also gave up a first round pick (originally acquired when they traded away Bradley Chubb) and a second round pick for head coach Sean Payton, who has yet to move the needle as a head coach. The Broncos then spent their first round pick in this year’s draft on a quarterback in Bo Nix who could have gone in the second round. The result is a roster that looks like one of the worst in the league and a quarterback who is highly unlikely to be able to overcome the limitations of the rest of this roster, especially in the loaded AFC.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in AFC West

New York Jets 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Jets

Quarterback

The Jets have by far the NFL’s longest playoff drought, not having made the post-season since the 2010 season, with every other team having made it since 2016 and all but four teams having made it since 2020. The quarterback position has been a huge part of the reason why. It’s not for lack of investment at the quarterback position though and, in fact, dating back to 2006, no team has spent more picks in the first two rounds on the quarterback position, taking six total, Kellen Clemens (2006), Mark Sanchez (2009), Geno Smith (2013), Christian Hackenburg (2016), Sam Darnold (2018), and Zach Wilson (2021). Remarkably, not a single one of those quarterbacks has panned out as a long-term starter for this team, even though three of them (Sanchez, Darnold, and Wilson) were selected in the top-5 picks overall.

Last off-season, the Jets made another big investment at the quarterback position, trading a second round pick to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers and giving him a 3-year, 112.5 million dollar contract. The season before, the Jets ranked 5th in defensive DVOA, but 26th in offensive DVOA and finished 7-10 as a result, so they were hoping Rodgers could elevate their offense significantly and be the missing piece on a contender. 

Instead, Rodgers tore his achilles four snaps into the season, ending his season and essentially ending the Jets’ season at the same time. The Jets again finished 7-10 in a season that was very similar to the one before, as they ranked 3rd in defensive DVOA, but 32nd in offensive DVOA. The Jets could have added a veteran backup behind Rodgers last off-season, or traded for one mid-season, but instead they opted to stick with Zach Wilson as a developmental option behind Rodgers and that proved to be a mistake once he was forced back into the starting lineup. 

A massive bust as the 2nd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Wilson completed 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions in 22 starts in his first two seasons in the league and things weren’t any different in 2023, as he completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 6.17 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 11 starts. Wilson was ultimately benched for third string Tim Boyle and then mid-season free agent signing Trevor Siemian, but neither of them were any better, combining to complete 58.3% of their passes for an average of 4.71 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

Rodgers returns healthy for the 2024 season and the Jets added a better backup plan in Tyrod Taylor, an experienced 13-year veteran, albeit one who is now in his age 35 season. In his career, he has a decent 88.3 QB rating in 57 career starts, including a 89.1 QB rating in 5 starts last season. However, there is a lot of concern about what version of Rodgers the Jets are going to get. Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past decade and a half, with a career 103.6 QB rating, and he won back-to-back MVPs as recently as 2020-2021, but he had a down year by his standards in 2022, posting the 2nd worst PFF grade of his 15 years as a starter (77.5) and the worst QB rating of those 15 seasons (91.1), before missing almost all of last season, and now is heading into his age 41 season and coming off a major injury.

That being said, Rodgers will obviously be a huge upgrade over what the Jets had at quarterback last season and the Jets have a lot of talent on the rest of this roster, so they won’t need Rodgers to be at his best for this team to be contenders. Given the uncertainty about what level Rodgers will play at, there is a wide range of outcomes for the Jets this season, but the Jets will almost definitely be better than they were a year ago and the ceiling for this team is being one of the best in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The quarterback position wasn’t the Jets only issue on offense last season, as their offensive line struggled mightily, finishing 30th on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 27th on PFF in team run blocking grade. With a narrow window as contenders, given the age of their starting quarterback, the Jets spent aggressively this off-season to try to surround Rodgers with enough talent to succeed and a big chunk of that investment was on the offensive line. 

Left tackle Tyron Smith was added on a heavily incentivized 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal, right tackle Morgan Moses and the remaining 1-year and 5.5 million on his contract were acquired for a mid round pick, and guard John Simpson was added on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Smith and Moses are going into their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, but they still played at a high level last season, they fit the Jets’ narrow contending window, and the Jets also planned for the future by using their first round pick on tackle Olu Fashanu. 

Smith has spent the previous 13 seasons with the Cowboys, who took him in the first round in the 2011 NFL Draft, and he’s been one of the best tackles in the league over that stretch, surpassing 70 on PFF in eleven of those seasons and surpassing 80 on PFF in eight of those seasons, including 2023, when he had a 83.8 PFF grade in 13 starts, despite his advanced age. Injuries have increasingly become a problem for him in recent years, as he’s missed 49 games in the past eight seasons, with at least three games missed in each of those seasons, and at his age he could start to decline significantly in the next year or two, but he’s starting from a high base point and it’s very possible he remains at least an above average starter for another year.

Moses hasn’t been quite as good as Smith, but he’s made 143 starts in the past nine seasons, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all nine seasons, including six seasons over 70, most recently 2023, when he had a 77.6 PFF grade in 14 starts for the Ravens. He’s also only missed three games due to injury in those nine seasons, though those three games did come last season. It’s also very possible he declines this season, but even if he does, he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. Even at their advanced ages, it wouldn’t be hard for Smith and Moses to be massive upgrades over what the Jets had at tackle last season, when all of the tackles who made a start for them finished below 60 on PFF except Alijah Vera-Tucker, who lasted five games before suffering a season ending injury.

With Smith and Moses locked into starting jobs at tackle, Vera-Tucker will move to guard, where he had a 66.8 PFF grade in 16 starts as a rookie in 2021, after being selected in the first round by the Jets in that year’s draft. In two seasons since that promising rookie year, Vera-Tucker has been hampered by injuries in a big way, missing 12 games total, but he has still shown his talent when on the field, with PFF grades of 71.8 and 71.7 respectively. Durability remains a concern for him, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and still has a lot of talent if he can stay on the field this time around.

The rookie Fashanu could also move to guard in the short-term, but most likely they’ll keep him as a reserve and start free agent acquisition John Simpson at the other guard spot, given the contract the Jets gave him. Simpson could prove to be a disappointment at that salary though. A 4th round pick by the Raiders in 2020, Simpson struggled in his first stint as a starter in 2021, posting a 52.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, and was subsequently benched for the 2022 season and then cut late that season. He then landed with the Ravens and surprisingly won a starting job, but continued struggling with a 56.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, his 4th straight season below 60 on PFF to begin his career. He figures to continue struggling in 2024 and could easily find himself benched for Fashanu before the season is over.

The only starter in the same spot as the end of last season on this offensive line is center Joe Tippmann, a 2023 2nd round pick who started the final 10 games of the season at center, after making 4 starts at guard earlier in the season. Compared to most of this offensive line last season, Tippmann wasn’t bad, posting a 61.0 PFF grade, and he could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Even if he doesn’t, I would expect him to remain at least a capable starter on a much improved starting five.

Along with Fashanu, the Jets also bring back Xavier Newman, Wes Schweitzer, Max Mitchell, Jake Hanson, Chris Glaser, and Carter Warren as reserve options, although all six of them struggled last season, with PFF grades of 48.3, 52.7, 49.3, 51.8, 45.5, and 46.9 respectively on snap counts of 280, 149, 474, 244, 83, and 401 respectively. Schweitzer is the only one of them with any history of success, mostly holding up decently in 62 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, but he now heads into his age 31 season. Schweitzer could be a decent reserve and is probably the best of the bunch, but only by default. 

Newman was a 2022 undrafted free agent who had only played 4 career offensive snaps prior to last season. Chris Glaser is also a 2022 undrafted free agent and last season is the only action of his career. Carter Warren was a 4th round pick in 2023 and could have some untapped upside, but has a long way to develop to even be a solid backup. Max Mitchell was a 4th round pick in 2022 and also struggled with a 55.5 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie, so he also has a long way to develop to even be a solid backup. Jake Hanson was a 6th round pick in 2021 and played just 75 snaps prior to last season. This Jets’ offensive line is much improved from a year ago and it’s unlikely more than one or two of the aforementioned players will see any significant action, but it’s at least worth noting their depth drops off significantly after the rookie Fashanu, who could end up in the starting lineup in the likely event that John Simpson struggles.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Another big weakness on this offense a year ago was their receiving corps, outside of top wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson was the only Jets wide receiver to surpass even 1 yard per route run last season and, while quarterback play was a big part of the problem, the receiving corps itself was also part of the problem. Along with their offensive line additions, the Jets also focused on improving this group this off-season, signing veteran Mike Williams to a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal and using a third round pick on Malachi Corley.

Williams is a similar short-term signing to Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. He isn’t as old, going into his age 30 season, but he is coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2023 season after just three games. Williams also missed four games due to injury the year before, but he had a career best 76/1146/9 slash line in 16 games in 2021 prior to that and he has averaged 1.99 yards per route run over the past three seasons when on the field and has a career average of 1.79 yards per route run, so the upside is there if he can stay healthy and doesn’t start to decline due to age. Those are both big ifs, but he should be a worthwhile signing for a Jets team that is all in on competing at the highest level in 2024.

Corley, meanwhile, will compete for the #3 receiver job with veteran holdover Allen Lazard. Lazard was signed to a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal to give Rodgers a familiar target from his Green Bay days, but that contract was always an overpay compared to what the rest of the league would have paid him, as he had only averaged 557 yards per season and 1.52 yards per route run in the previous four seasons with Rodgers, and Lazard proved to be basically useless to the Jets when Rodgers got hurt, finishing with a 23/311/1 slash line and a 0.68 yards per route run average. 

Lazard even lost playing time down the stretch last season to undrafted rookies Jason Brownlee and Xavier Gipson, who weren’t any better with yards per route run averages of 0.29 and 0.67 respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, Lazard has some bounce back potential now that his quarterback is healthy, but even at his best he’d only be a middling #3 receiver and it’s possible the rookie Corley outplays him in training camp and takes his job. Brownlee and Gipson remain as well, but it’s highly unlikely they’re anything more than depth receivers in this improved receiving corps.

Garrett Wilson is still the obvious #1 receiver in this group, posting slash lines of 95/1042/3 and 83/1103/4 with a combined 1.69 yards per route run average in two seasons in the league, despite the quarterback play he’s had. Still only in his age 24 season, Wilson has a massive upside in year three if Rodgers can stay healthy and be even an average starting quarterback. He’ll probably see a smaller target share in a better receiving corps than he has over the past two seasons (147 targets in 2022, 168 targets in 2023), but he could easily make up for that with much improved efficiency. 

The Jets didn’t make any additions at the tight end position this off-season, so Tyler Conklin will remain the starter. He hasn’t been a bad starter, with slash lines of 61/593/3, 58/552/3, and 61/621/0 over the past three seasons respectively, with an average of 1.22 yards per route run over that stretch, but he’s more of a checkdown option than anything and will probably have a smaller target share in 2024 with better wide receivers around him, after finishing third on the team with 87 last season.

Conklin will continue to be backed up by Jeremy Ruckert, a 2022 3rd round pick who has shown very little through two seasons in the league, averaging 1.05 yards per route run and posting PFF grades of 56.1 and 57.5 over those two seasons. The Jets parted ways with veteran CJ Uzomah (240 snaps in 2023), so Ruckert will probably have a bigger role in 2024 than 2023 (313 snaps), but I don’t have high expectations from him aside from him being a decent backup option. This should be an improved receiving corps over last year, particularly with the addition of Mike Williams in free agency.

Grade; B

Running Backs

Along with Garrett Wilson, the other big playmaker on this Jets’ offense last season was running back Breece Hall. A 2022 2nd round pick, Hall’s impressive rookie season was ended by a torn ACL, after he rushed for 463 yards and 4 touchdowns on 80 carries (5.79 YPC) with a 19/218/1 slash line and 2.00 yards per route run in 7 games. In his first season back from the injury in 2023, Hall was eased back into action, splitting time with veteran Dalvin Cook early in the year, but he drastically outperformed Cook and took control of this backfield as the season went on, with Cook eventually being cut after he was unhappy with his role. 

While Cook finished the season with just 214 yards and no touchdowns on 67 carries (3.19 YPC) and a 15/78/0 slash line with 0.88 yards per route run in 15 games, Hall finished the season with 994 yards and 5 touchdowns on 223 carries (4.46 YPC) and a 76/591/4 slash line with 1.76 yards per route run. The Jets didn’t add a veteran backup to replace Breece Hall, only using 4th and 5th round picks on Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis instead, leaving the two rookies and 2023 5th round pick Israel Abanikanda (29 touches as a rookie) behind Hall on the depth chart, so Hall should be in for a big role in year three and he has a massive upside, another year removed from his injury, with much more talent around him than he had a year ago, particularly at quarterback and on the offensive line.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Jets’ defense has been dominant the past two seasons. It’s tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistent great on offense because defense tends to have more changes year-to-year, but the Jets have kept most of the same personnel for the past few seasons, with eight of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last season remaining on the roster and six of their top-10 in terms of snaps played from 2022 remaining on the roster. 

The position group that has seen the most changes has been the edge defender group, but that’s not really a bad thing. In 2022, their top edge defenders in terms of snaps played were veterans Carl Lawson (663 snaps) and John Franklin-Myers (643 snaps), 2022 1st round pick Jermaine Johnson (312 snaps), and 2022 4th round pick Michael Clemons (311 snaps) and they all played well, with PFF grades of 66.8, 82.6, 71.7, and 78.7 respectively. The Jets then added another first round pick, Will McDonald, to the mix the following off-season.

In 2023, Lawson, the worst of the bunch in 2022, was largely phased out, playing just 101 snaps in 6 games, while Jermaine Johnson and another young edge defender Bryce Huff played bigger roles, seeing 748 snaps and 481 snaps respectively. Both played well, with PFF grades of 83.0 and 79.7 respectively, while John Franklin-Myers and Michael Clemons also had solid seasons in similar roles to 2022, with PFF grades of 70.4 and 65.9 respectively on snap counts of 626 and 368 respectively. Will McDonald played sparingly in a deep role, but showed potential with a 71.6 PFF grade on 183 snaps.

This off-season, Huff signed with the Eagles on a 3-year, 51.1 million dollar deal and John Franklin-Myers was traded to the Broncos for a late round pick, saving the Jets his 13.9 million dollar salary. To replace them, the Jets traded a mid-round pick to the Eagles for Haason Reddick, who will make 15 million in the final year of his contract this season, and they figure to give more playing time in year two to Will McDonald. 

Reddick, McDonald, and Jermaine Johnson all figure to have significant roles, while Michael Clemons could see an expanded role as well, in what is still a very talented position group. McDonald is still unproven, but he has a high upside, while Clemons is at least a solid rotational player, particularly against the run, and Johnson is coming off of a breakout 2023 campaign and should continue playing at a high level for years to come, only going into his age 25 season.

Reddick is going into his age 30 season and could start declining in 2024, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off a little this season, he’s starting from a pretty high base point, so he should continue playing at a pretty high level. A first round pick by the Cardinals in 2017, Reddick’s career got off to a slow start, but over the past four seasons he has 50.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 66 games, while receiving overall grades of 72.8, 67.9, 81.1, and 75.2 respectively from PFF. Even with all of the changes in recent years, this should still be a talented position group in 2024.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Jets also have a high level player at the interior defender position, with Quinnen Williams being one of the best players in the league at that position. The 3rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Williams showed a lot of promise early in his career, but didn’t put it all together until the past two seasons, when he has excelled with PFF grades of 90.1 and 90.6, playing the run well and dominating as a pass rusher, with a combined 17.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Williams should continue playing at a high level in 2024.

The rest of this group is not nearly as good, however. Solomon Thomas (483 snaps) and Quinton Jefferson (468 snaps) were second and third on this team in snaps played and struggled with PFF grades of 37.0 and 52.8 respectively. Jefferson left as a free agent this off-season and was replaced with Javon Kinlaw, which is not necessarily an upgrade. A first round pick by the 49ers in 2020, Kinlaw has been a massive bust to this point in his career. Injuries have been part of the problem, as he’s missed 26 games in four seasons in the league, but he hasn’t played well when on the field either, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons, while averaging 32.5 snaps played per game. He’s a decent pass rusher, with a career 7.1% pressure rate, but is horrible against the run. Now in his age 27 season, there probably isn’t much untapped upside here, so he figures to continue struggling in his new home.

Solomon Thomas is also a former first round pick bust of the 49ers, going third overall in the 2017 NFL Draft and finishing below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, including five straight, and four straight seasons below 50. Like Kinlaw, he’s also better as a pass rusher than a run defender, but his career 7.0% pressure rate is pretty mediocre. In his age 29 season in 2024, I would expect him to continue struggling. The Jets also signed ex-Cardinal Leki Fotu in free agency this off-season, but he too has struggled throughout his career, finishing below 50 on PFF in all four seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020, on an average of 363 snaps per season. He too should continue struggling in 2024. The Jets have one of the best interior defenders in the league in Quinnen Williams, but this is a very top heavy group, as the rest of the bunch figure to struggle.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Jets also got great play out of starting linebackers CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams in 2023, as they finished with PFF grades of 82.9 and 81.1 respectively. Both had career best years though and it’s very possible neither one is as good again in 2024. For Williams, his dominant 2023 campaign came out of nowhere, as the 2019 3rd round pick had never finished above 60 on PFF in his four previous seasons. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at the same level, but it’s much more likely he regresses, at least somewhat, possibly a lot.

Mosley has a better history than Williams, exceeding 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including six seasons above 70, but he’s never been above 80 in any of his other seasons and he’s now heading into his age 32 season, so he’s highly unlikely to repeat the best season of his career for the second year in a row and it’s possible he could regress significantly, given his age. He and Williams will probably remain at least a solid starting duo, but it seems improbable that both would be as good as a year ago.

Behind Mosley and Williams, the Jets’ depth is pretty suspect. Jamien Sherwood (193 snaps), Sam Eguavoen (14 snaps), and Chazz Surratt (9 snaps) were the only other linebackers who played a snap for them last season and they return for 2024 as their top reserves. Sherwood was a 5th round pick in 2021, but has only played 357 snaps in three seasons in the league. He’s flashed potential in that limited action, but could easily struggle in a larger role. 

Eguavoen played 621 snaps as a rookie in 2019, but the former undrafted free agent struggled with a 50.2 PFF grade that season and has only played 314 snaps in four seasons in the league since then and now is heading into his age 31 season. Chazz Surratt, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick by the Vikings in 2021, but the 9 snaps he played last season were the first defensive snaps of his career. Mosley and Williams are a solid starting duo, but both are unlikely to be as good as a year ago and their depth behind them is suspect.

Grade: B+

Secondary

One of the few defensive players the Jets lost this off-season is safety Jordan Whitehead, who had a 68.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but the Jets have a ready made replacement in Chuck Clark. Clark was originally brought in last off-season to start next to Whitehead, but he tore his ACL before the season started and didn’t play a snap. He’s only in his age 29 season though and now more than a full year removed from his injury, he has a good chance to bounce back to his pre-injury form, when he had PFF grades of 72.9, 68.8, 66.2, and 66.0 in 61 starts in the previous four seasons. In Clark’s absence, Tony Adams was the other starter next to Whitehead and he played well enough to keep a starting job for another year, posting a 68.0 PFF grade in 15 starts. 

A 2022 undrafted free agent, Adams flashed potential with a 69.5 PFF grade on 118 snaps as a rookie and then was able to carry that into a larger role in 2023. He’s still pretty inexperienced and I don’t think we can completely forget that he went undrafted just yet, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he remained at least a decent starter for another season. Ashtyn Davis returns as the third safety and top reserve. He was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but he was mediocre as a starter early in his career and has played just 221 snaps over the past two seasons since. Already in his age 28 season, Davis probably doesn’t have any untapped upside, but he is at least a decent backup behind Chuck Clark and Tony Adams.

At cornerback is probably where the Jets are their strongest on defense, with a trio of highly talented cornerbacks. Sauce Gardner, the 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, is already one of the top cornerbacks in the league, receiving PFF grades of 87.9 and 88.6 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. Still only in his age 24 season, Gardner should remain one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

Fellow starting outside cornerback DJ Reed joined the Jets as a free agent in the same off-season Gardner was drafted and he has been a big part of their defensive success over the past two seasons, finishing with PFF grades of 72.5 and 77.9 respectively, after posting a 78.6 PFF grade in his final season in Seattle in 2021. Reed actually has five straight seasons above 70 on PFF, although the first two were in smaller roles, as the 2018 5th round pick took time to develop into a full-time starter. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Reed in 2024.

At the same time as Gardner and Reed were added, slot cornerback Michael Carter broke out between them. Only a 5th round pick in 2021, Carter struggled with a 53.7 PFF grade on 777 snaps as a rookie, but improved drastically in year two and has since had PFF grades of 73.5 and 80.4 on snap counts of 732 and 671 respectively. Still only in his age 25 season, Carter should continue being one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league in 2024 and beyond.

In addition to having a very talented top trio of cornerbacks, the Jets also added better depth this off-season. Last season, their top reserve was Brandin Echols and, while he only had to play 143 snaps in 2023, it’s possible one of their top-3 cornerbacks misses significant time with injury in 2024, in which case the Jets would have had to turn to a 2021 6th round pick who struggled mightily with a 45.0 PFF grade on 762 snaps as a rookie, in the only significant action of his career. He hasn’t been bad in a smaller role in two seasons since, but he would have been a very shaky injury replacement option, so the Jets added veteran Isaiah Oliver in free agency and he’ll be their 4th cornerback this season. 

A second round pick in 2018, Oliver never really panned out as a starter, with PFF grades of 56.8 and 58.8 on snap counts of 927 and 831 respectively in 2019 and 2020, but he’s been better on smaller snap counts since, with PFF grades of 72.6, 77.9, and 67.6 respectively over the past three seasons on snap counts of 161, 349, and 503. If forced into significant action in 2024, he could continue struggling, but he probably wouldn’t be as bad as Echols would have been and it’s possible his second stint as a starter could go better than the first, if needed. He’s an above average option as a #4 cornerback, behind arguably the top trio of cornerbacks in the league. The Jets aren’t as good at safety, but they’re not bad there either and, overall, this is a very good secondary.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Jets are going all in on 2024, which makes a lot of sense, given the age of their starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers and their lack of a long-term succession plan behind him. The 2024 season could be their only good chance at winning it all for a long-time. Whether or not they can ultimately reach that goal is strongly dependent on what version of Rodgers they get, now going into his age 41 season, coming off of a major injury, and three years removed from his last prime caliber season. The rest of this roster is good enough that, if Rodgers can somewhat resemble his prime self, they should be legitimate contenders to win it all, but that’s a big if.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East

Buffalo Bills 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Quarterback

A common team building strategy is to draft a young, cheap quarterback, surround him with talent while he’s young and cheap, even at the expense of future cap space, and then by the team the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback, hopefully the quarterback is good enough to succeed even with less help around him. It’s arguably the only way to build a consistent contending team, as the only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers.

The Bills have followed this blueprint since using the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft on Josh Allen. It took a couple years for the Bills to load up on talent around Allen and for Allen to develop into a top level quarterback, but in his third season in the league in 2020, Allen and the Bills broke out and since then the Bills have gone 48-18 with five playoff victories, with Allen completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions, while adding 2,470 yards and 36 touchdowns on 459 carries (5.38 YPC). Overall, he has ranked 5th, 6th, 1st and 1st among quarterbacks on PFF with grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, and 91.2 respectively. 

Unfortunately, despite all their success, Allen and the Bills haven’t reached the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl. Now with Allen going into his 7th season in the league and the 2nd season of his massive 6-year, 258 million dollar extension (10th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary), Allen’s cap hit will go over 11% of the cap for the first time and it will only go up from there, so the Bills had to move on from several players this off-season to improve their long-term cap situation. Allen is the kind of quarterback capable of at least keeping this team in contention even with a diminished roster around him, but things will only get harder from here for him.

Allen hasn’t missed any time with injury since his rookie season, despite a playing style that makes him more susceptible to injury. If Allen does happen to miss time this season, the Bills brought back veteran Mitch Trubisky, who backed Allen up in 2021, in between stints as a starter with the Bears from 2017-2020 and as a spot starter with the Steelers from 2022-2023. Trubisky has never lived up to his billing as the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he’s pretty good as far as backups go, completing 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.70 YPA, 72 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in 57 career starts. The Bills would obviously be in a lot of trouble if they lost Allen for an extended period of time, as Allen is a top-5 quarterback, but you could do a lot worse than turning to Trubisky in a worst case scenario.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

In 2023, the Bills finished 11-6, but were better than their record suggested, as they finished the season ranked 3rd in DVOA. After a 5-5 start, the Bills went 6-1 in their final 7 regular season games and came within a couple plays of beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the second round of the playoffs. That turnaround coincided with the Bills firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replacing him with former quarterbacks coach Joe Brady, but their improved success had more to do with the team doing better in close games than it did with the team actually playing better. In fact, the Bills offense actually got slightly worse as the season went on, after the coordinator switch. Overall on the season, the Bills averaged 5.71 yards per play and had a 33.45% first down rate, but if you more heavily weight their games later in the season, the Bills averages drop to 5.60 yards per play and a 32.97% first down rate. 

The biggest change when Brady took over was this offense became much more run heavy, going from averaging 38.9 pass attempts and 28.2 carries per game with Dorsey calling plays to 33.1 pass attempts and 36.8 carries per game with Brady. Part of that was giving more carries to their running backs, but Josh Allen’s carries also increased from 4.8 per game to 9.0 per game, as Dorsey preferred to keep Allen in the pocket more to help him avoid injury, while Brady used Allen more as a dual threat. 

Utilizing Allen as a runner is not a bad idea in of itself, but Allen’s passing effectiveness decreased down the stretch as well, going from a 70.3% completion percentage, 7.43 YPA average, and 19 touchdowns to 11 interceptions with Dorsey to a 60.7% completion percentage, 7.45 YPA average, and 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions with Brady and Brady’s scheme probably deserves some of the blame for that. Allen was also a less efficient runner down the stretch than he was early in the season, averaging 4.41 YPC, as opposed to 5.13 YPC with Dorsey as the offensive coordinator. Brady remains as the Bills’ offensive coordinator for the 2024 season, but that might not necessarily be a good thing, even if the team’s record misleadingly shows they were better with Brady calling plays in 2023.

That being said, a more run-heavy game plan might be for the best in 2024, given the personnel changes they made this off-season, as they traded away top wide receiver Stefon Diggs for a 2025 2nd round pick and let #2 wide receiver Gabe Davis leave on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal in free agency. The Diggs trade didn’t free up any immediate cap space for the Bills in 2024, but they were going to have to take a big dead cap hit whenever they moved on from him and, if Diggs continued on his current trajectory, this might have been the last off-season the Bills could have gotten anything significant for him via trade. 

Diggs still had a 107/1183/8 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 2023, but his production significantly decreased down the stretch, as he managed just a 47/422/1 slash line on 80 targets in his final 10 games including playoffs with a 1.30 yards per route run average. That largely coincides with the Bills’ offensive coordinator change and Joe Brady is probably partially to blame for that, but Diggs was also on the wrong side of 30, heading into his age 31 season in 2024, and it’s very possible he’s on the decline in a significant way. 

Davis, meanwhile, was decent with a 45/746/7 slash line and a 1.34 yards per route run average in 2023, but he’s not irreplaceable. To replace Diggs and Davis, the Bills signed veteran Curtis Samuel to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal, used a second round pick on Keon Coleman, and took fliers on additional veterans in Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Chase Claypool. The Bills will also probably give a bigger role to 2022 5th round pick Khalil Shakir, who took on a bigger role down the stretch last season, at the expense of Stefon Diggs. 

In fact, Shakir had basically the same level of production down the stretch last season as Diggs did, despite a smaller role. In the final 12 games of the season, including playoffs, Shakir had a 41/611/3 slash line on 48 targets with a 1.79 yards per route run average. It’s a small sample size for a player who was not highly drafted and who had previously averaged just 1.23 yards per route run in the first year and a half of his career, but Shakir comes into his third season in the league in 2024 with a lot of upside and could see a big target share. 

Coleman and Samuel are probably locked into big roles by virtue of the significant investments the Bills made in them this off-season, but Shakir figures to at least be a top-3 receiver on this team and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him lead this team in targets, given the Bills’ other options. Coleman has a lot of potential, but enters the league pretty raw and could see a lot of growing pains as a rookie, while Samuel is a decent receiver, but an unspectacular one and one without much upside, going into his age 28 season, having averaged 1.37 yards per route run and 483 yards per season in seven seasons in the league.

As for the veteran fliers the Bills added as depth options, none are likely to have a big impact. Mack Hollins has only exceeded 300 receiving yardage once in seven seasons in the league, has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, and is going into his age 31 season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is going into his age 30 season with a career average of 1.23 yards per route run and 526 yards per season in six seasons in the league. 

Chase Claypool was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and showed potential early in his career, with slash lines of 62/873/9 and 59/860/2 on an average of 1.84 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league, but he has averaged only 0.99 yards per route run over the past two seasons, with just 54 catches, only 8 of which came in 2023. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and is the only one of the trio of reserve options with any upside, but he’s still nothing more than a flier.

With concerns at the wide receiver position, the Bills figure to heavily use their two tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and spent most of his first four seasons in the league as a starter, averaging 718 snaps per season, but he was underwhelming, averaging 1.13 yards per route run and 445 yards per season, which led to the Bills selecting Kincaid in the first round in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Kincaid immediately was better than Knox had ever been, with a 73/673/2 slash line and a 1.46 yards per route run average as a rookie, and he out-snapped Knox 699-486. Now going into his second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kincaid take another step forward, but Knox is not a bad #2 tight end and, given the Bills’ wide receiver situation, the Bills figure to use both on the field at the same time frequently. The Bills’ lack a true #1 option, but there are at least some good options, as the Bills try to replace Stefon Diggs’ targets by committee.

Grade: B

Running Backs

In addition to Josh Allen running with the ball more often after Joe Brady took over, lead running back James Cook also saw an uptick in carries, averaging 17.0 carries per game in the final seven games of the regular season and their two playoff games, as opposed to 12.0 carries per game in the first 10 games of the season. It is worth noting that his efficiency dropped off though, like the rest of this offense, as he went from averaging 5.13 yards per carry to 4.33 yards per carry. A 2nd round pick in 2022, Cook flashed a lot of potential with a 5.70 YPC average on 89 rookie year carries, but it’s possible the 5-11 190 back wears down as he sees largely carry totals and would be best off as part of a tandem with a bigger power back. 

Unfortunately, the Bills don’t really have a good option for that role unless they get a surprising rookie season out of 4th round pick Ray Davis, who at least has the size to complement Cook at 5-8 220. Cook is also a good pass catcher, with a yards per route run average of 1.44 in his two seasons in the league. Even when this offense became more run heavy down the stretch last season, Cook saw his pass production increase, with a 28/249/3 slash line in 9 games with Joe Brady, as opposed to 24/222/1 in 10 games with Ken Dorsey. 

Cook figures to continue having a big passing game role, though it’s worth noting that the rookie Davis also has good receiving upside, with 62 catches in his final two collegiate seasons, and the Bills also have veteran Ty Johnson, who has played sparingly in his career, but has seen 74.4% of his career 1,158 snaps come on passing plays, with an average of 1.08 yards per route run (4.44 YPC on 238 career carries, against defenses that were mostly expecting the pass). All three backs could see action in passing situations this season, but Cook figures to remain the feature back, both as a runner and a pass catcher. He has a high upside, but might not be big enough to be a true feature back and their depth behind him is pretty suspect.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bills also parted ways with long-time center Mitch Morse this off-season, making him a cap casualty ahead of a 8.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2024, but he won’t be too hard to replace, after he posted a decent, but unspectacular 64.5 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. To replace him, expect the Bills to move left guard Connor McGovern inside. McGovern has only made one start at center in the NFL, but he played there extensively in college and should be able to make the position switch relatively easily. 

McGovern has been underwhelming in 46 career starts in five seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2019 and received a 58.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but his likely replacement at left guard, David Edwards, could be an upgrade on what Morse was at center so, in the aggregate, the Bills probably won’t miss Morse. Edwards hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2021, but he had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 respectively in 2020 and 2021 with the Rams, while making 31 starts in those two seasons combined. 

Edwards was limited to 230 snaps with the Rams in 2022 by injuries and only played 148 snaps as a reserve with the Bills in 2023, but he’s still only in his age 27 season and should be able to bounce back to being at least a decent starter in 2024. The rest of this offensive line will remain the same in 2024. At the other guard spot opposite Edwards, 2023 2nd round pick O’Cyrus Torrence will be the starter for the second straight season. He was underwhelming with a 56.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie in 2023, but he has a good chance to be better in year two, possibly a lot better. 

At tackle, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown remain, on the left and right side respectively. Dawkins has been their best offensive lineman for years and that should remain the case in 2024. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Dawkins has been a starter since his rookie season, making 106 starts in seven seasons, while never finishing worse than 69.9 on PFF, which came back in his second season in the league in 2018. In 2023, he finished with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. He’s going into his age 30 season in 2024 and could start to decline soon, but even if he does, he’s likely to remain an above average starter for at least another season.

Brown, on the other hand, is not as good. He did have a career best 68.1 PFF grade in a career high 17 starts in 2023, after the 2021 1st round pick had PFF grades of 62.6 and 51.4 in a combined 24 starts in his first two seasons in the league. Brown is only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue being a solid starter like he was last season, or possibly even better than last season, but he could also regress, given his inconsistent history.

The Bills also signed veteran right tackle La’El Collins in free agency this off-season, but he figures to be a reserve, despite his extensive history as a starter. Collins has made 86 starts in nine seasons in the league and has mostly been an above average starter, including PFF grades of 72.5, 86.4, and 82.0 in 2018, 2019, and 2021 (41 combined starts), but he missed all of 2020 with injury, fell to a 57.9 PFF grade in 2022 (15 starts), then again missed all of the 2023 season with injury, and now heads into his age 31 season with an extensive recent injury history and his last above average season coming three years ago. He’s an above average insurance policy to have and could be a solid starter if forced into action, but I wouldn’t consider him a legitimate threat to Spencer Brown’s starting job at right tackle.

On the interior, the Bills’ depth isn’t as good. They used a 5th round pick on Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, a collegiate center who could also play guard if needed, but he probably would struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. Will Clapp is their most experienced veteran option and he has the versatility to play both guard and center, but the 2018 7th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league (21 starts), including a 56.7 PF grade in a career high 11 starts for the Chargers in 2023. Either way, the Bills would likely be in trouble if one of their interior offensive line starters got hurt this season. This isn’t a bad offensive line overall though, with David Edwards essentially replacing veteran Mitch Morse, which should be at worst a lateral move, and they at least have a good swing tackle option in La’El Collins, even if their interior depth is a concern.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bills lost more on defense this off-season than they did on offense, with four of their top-9 in terms of snaps played last season now gone, among other more minor players. At the edge defender spot, the Bills lost Leonard Floyd, who had a 56.3 PFF grade on 576 snaps, as well as Shaq Lawson, who played a smaller role, with a 48.1 PFF grade on 322 snaps. In their absence, the Bills will probably give bigger roles to Greg Rousseau (585 snaps) and AJ Epenesa (388 snaps), who excelled in their limited roles last season with PFF grades of 85.6 and 80.3 respectively and pressure rates of 14.9% and 13.1% respectively.

Rousseau was a first round pick in 2021 and has shown a lot of promise in part-time roles through three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 70.2 and 83.6 on snap counts of 531 and 463 prior to last season and a combined 17 sacks, 26 hits, and 13.6% pressure rate in 46 career games. Still only in his age 24 season, Rousseau could be in for a huge 2024 season if he sees a significantly bigger snap count and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain highly effective in a part-time role.

Epenesa, on the other hand, was a second round pick in 2020 and had posted mostly mediocre grades on PFF prior to last season, finishing in the 50s and 60s with a combined 9.7% pressure rate, and he’s never played more than 388 snaps in a season in four seasons in the league, even including last year. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, but doesn’t have the same upside as Rousseau and could easily regress in 2024, especially if he has to play a bigger role and proves unable to hold up on a higher snap count.

The Bills will also be hoping for more out of Von Miller, who was limited to a 45.4 PFF grade and a 7.3% pressure rate in 2023 on a snap count of 257 in 12 games in an injury plagued season. Miller is one of the most accomplished edge defenders in the league over the past decade plus, exceeding 80 on PFF in 11 of 13 seasons in the league, including most recently a 85.8 PFF grade in 2022, albeit in an injury shortened season in which he played just 450 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season with a significant recent injury history and, even if he stays healthy and bounces back in 2024, his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point. Still, if he could even be a talented rotational player for the Bills this season, that would be a big boost over what he gave them a year ago.

The Bills did add some depth to this group this off-season, using a 5th round pick on Javon Solomon and signing veterans Dawuane Smoot and Casey Toohill. Solomon would probably struggle even in a rotational role as a rookie, while Toohill is an underwhelming 2020 7th round pick who has a career 7.4% pressure rate and who received a 52.1 PFF grade on 494 snaps in 2023, but Smoot at least has some potential. 

Smoot struggled mightily with a 42.4 PFF grade on 340 snaps in 2023, while managing just a 6.1% pressure rate, but he was coming off of a major injury and was a lot better in 2021 and 2022, with PFF grades of 68.1 and 70.3 respectively on snap counts of 675 and 445 respectively, while totaling 11 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 31 games. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Smoot has some bounce back potential as a rotational player if he’s healthy again. The Bills lost a couple rotational players in this group this off-season, but they both struggled, so they won’t be missed and, overall, this is still a talented group.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Bills also lost a couple rotational players at the interior defender spot from a year ago, with Jordan Phillips (391 snaps) and Tim Settle (380 snaps) no longer with the team, but they struggled with PFF grades of 35.8 and 58.2 respectively, so they probably won’t be missed. The replacements the Bills added, veteran journeymen Austin Johnson and DeShawn Williams and third round rookie DeWayne Carter are underwhelming options, but the Bills should at least get more out of DaQuan Jones, who was limited to 174 snaps in 86.0 games by injuries last season.

Jones excelled in his limited action, with a 86.0 PFF grade, playing the run well but also adding a 14.9% pressure rate. That was a little out of character for Jones, who has been a solid, but unspectacular player for most of his career, receiving grades in the 60s and 70s in eight straight seasons prior to last season, and Jones now heads into his age 33 season, so he’s highly unlikely to be as good over a full season this year as he was in limited action last year, but unless he drops off a cliff significantly, a possibility given his age, he should still be a welcome re-addition to this team. His run defense is probably his best attribute, but he also has decent pass rush numbers in his career, with 14.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 6.5% pressure rate in 139 career games. 

Jones will continue to start next to Ed Oliver, also a solid player, but kind of the opposite of Jones, with mediocre play against the run for most of his career, but also great pass rush production, with 24 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 78 games since going in the first round in 2019. His mediocre run defense has prevented him from exceeding a 71.5 PFF grade in five seasons in the league, but he’s still a useful starter for the Bills and, still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

Newcomers Johnson and Carter will compete to be the top reserve interior defender and both figure to have roles. Johnson is an 8-year veteran, but his career high PFF grade for a season is 66.9, which came on just 231 snaps in 2020. He’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of eight seasons in the league, including three straight seasons and the only two seasons in which he exceeded 400 snaps on the season. Last season, he had the worst season of his career with a 45.7 PFF grade on 641 snaps and now he heads into his age 30 season. He figures to continue struggling in 2024, even in a reserve role. 

Williams is also an aging veteran who has struggled for most of his career, going into his age 32 season and coming off of three straight seasons in which he has finished below 60 on PFF, with grades of 56.2, 55.4, and 50.0 on snap counts of 386, 598, and 443 respectively. Carter, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term starter, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Oliver and Jones are a solid starting duo, but the Bills’ depth is a concern at this position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, the Bills lost Tyrel Dodson, who played at a very high level last season, with a 89.5 PFF grade, albeit on just 550 snaps as an injury replacement for Matt Milano, a regular starter who played just 211 snaps in 5 games in 2023 before suffering a season ending injury. Milano returns healthy for the 2024 season and is an above average every down player when on the field, surpassing 70 on PFF in three straight seasons, but durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 25 games in 7 seasons in the league, missing time in every season except his rookie season. Milano is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury and the Bills don’t have a backup plan that is anywhere near as good as Dodson, with 2023 3rd round pick Dorian Williams, who was mediocre on 211 snaps as a rookie last season, as their top reserve.

Terrel Bernard returns as the other every down linebacker opposite Milano. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Bernard showed some promise while playing sparingly as a rookie (111 snaps), before having a solid season as a starter in 2023, with a 64.0 PFF grade on 999 snaps. Still only in his age 25 season, he should continue being at least a solid starter in 2024 and he has the upside to take a step forward and be even better in his third season in the league. Milano and Bernard are a solid linebacking duo, but the Bills’ depth could be a question mark if Dorian Williams doesn’t take a step forward in year two and, even if he does, the Bills will still likely miss Tyrel Dodson, who left as a free agent this off-season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group with the biggest changes on the Bills’ defense this off-season is safety, where the starting duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer was let go this off-season, after seven seasons together. Both still played pretty well last season, with PFF grades of 64.4 and 73.0 on snap counts of 796 and 987 respectively, but they were going into their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively in 2024 and Poyer was owed 5.75 million, so the Bills made him a cap casualty and didn’t re-sign Hyde as a free agent.

The Bills have options to replace them, but they all figure to be downgrades. They used a second round pick on Cole Bishop and added veterans Dee Delaney and Mike Edwards to a group that also has Taylor Rapp, another veteran who played 422 snaps as a reserve last season, but who previously was a starter with the Rams and who has 52 starts in five seasons in the league. Rapp struggled with a 56.4 PFF grade last season, but the 2019 2nd round pick previously had PFF grades over 60 in each of his first four seasons in the league, maxing out at 76.2 on 976 snaps as recently as 2022. Only in his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential and has a good chance to at least be an average starter.

I would expect Rapp to start alongside the rookie Bishop, but both Delaney and Edwards will be in the mix as well and could win the starting job if Bishop disappoints. Neither have ever been season long starters though, maxing out at 449 snaps and 814 snaps in a season in 6 seasons and 5 seasons in the league respectively. Delaney at least had a 63.4 PFF grade last season on his career high 449 snaps, but Edwards has finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Both would almost definitely be underwhelming starting options if forced into action, so the Bills will be hoping Bishop wins the job, but he could have growing pains as a rookie.

The Bills also moved on from veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White this off-season, rather than paying him 12.5 million in 2024, but he had been very injury prone in recent years and had just a 68.0 PFF grade in just 182 snaps in 4 games last season, so he won’t be missed that much. To replace him, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas mid-season last year and he will continue to start opposite Christian Benford, with Taron Johnson remaining as the slot cornerback in sub packages.

Johnson is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, exceeding 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a career best 80.4 PFF grade last season. Only in his age 28 season, he should continue playing well in 2024, though he might not repeat the best season of his career again and his previous career high PFF grade was 69.7. Douglas also played at a high level last season after being added via trade, with a 80.1 PFF grade on 503 snaps in 9 games. That was also a career best for him, but it wasn’t too out of character for him, as he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 as well. The 2017 3rd round pick was a late bloomer, but he’s still only in his age 29 season and should continue being an above average starter in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago.

Benford was just a 6th round pick in 2022 and struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade on 363 snaps as a rookie, but he broke out in a big way in 2023, with a 82.2 PFF grade on 824 snaps. He might not be quite as good again, but he played more than well enough to keep his starting job and he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, even if he regresses from his improbably good 2023 season. Finding Benford in the 6th round of that 2022 draft makes up for the fact that their first round pick that year, another cornerback Kaiir Elam, has been a big bust thus far, playing just 634 snaps in two seasons in the league, in part due to injuries (18 games missed), in part due to his struggles, as he’s received PFF grades of 56.7 and 58.8 thus far in two seasons in the league. 

Elam is only going into his age 23 season in 2024 still could develop into something useful long-term, but that’s far from a guarantee and he’ll start this season no higher than 4th on the depth chart, given how well the Bills top-3 cornerbacks played ahead of him a year ago. The Bills top cornerback trio of Douglas, Benford, and Johnson all might not be as good as a year ago and they lost their two solid starting safeties, but their cornerbacks should play at a relatively high level and their safeties at least aren’t bad.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bills probably aren’t as good overall as they were a year ago after some off-season losses, but they were one of the best teams in the league overall last season, finishing 3rd in overall DVOA, and they still have one of the top quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, who should continue keeping this team in contention. Whether or not they can finally get over the hump in the loaded AFC and make the Super Bowl over the likes of the Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens remains to be seen, but they should be considered on the short list of contenders in 2024.

Update: The Bills’ defense was dealt a big blow when they lost Matt Milano for most of the season due to injury. In a loaded AFC, that could leave them on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 10-7, 3rd in AFC East

New England Patriots 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Quarterback

The Patriots went 4-13 last season, tied for the second worst record in the league, but there were some reasons for optimism going into the off-season. While their offense struggled mightily, ranking 29th in DVOA, their defense was good, ranking 9th, and, as a result, many of their losses a year ago were close, with 8 of 13 decided by seven points or fewer. They also had the 3rd pick in this year’s draft, one of the best in terms of top quarterback talent in recent memory, they had among the most cap space in the league entering the off-season, and a they had significant amount of talent set to return from injury, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league a year ago.

However, things did not go nearly as well as they could have this off-season. They started the off-season by firing long-term head coach and GM Bill Belichick, who had increasingly had trouble winning in the post-Tom Brady era, going 29-38 in four seasons without the legendary quarterback, while not winning a single playoff game. Belichick deserves a lot of the blame for the Patriots’ inability to find the right quarterback or offensive coordinator to keep this offense at least competitive after the loss of Brady and, subsequently, after the loss of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Belichick also deserves a lot of the blame for some of the Patriots’ poor personnel decisions in recent years as the Patriots GM, particularly their drafts.

However, Belichick had proven to still be one of the best defensive minds in the game and it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots defense will be as good as it was a year ago without him. The Patriots did promote internally from that defense, making Jerod Mayo their new head coach, but Mayo is very young and inexperienced for a head coaching hire and never called plays or held the title defensive coordinator, so it’s fair to wonder if he can continue having the same success on that side of the ball without one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time leading the way, especially since defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance.

The Patriots also did very little in the way of adding new talent to this team this off-season, opting to use some of their cap space to lock in key members of last year’s team and saving the rest, so this roster still very much resembles the one built by Belichick as a GM. The Patriots still have about 46 million in cap space, most in the NFL, and have the 6th lowest average annual value in the league, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage. 

The Patriots should still be much healthier than a year ago and they did use their 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback Drake Maye, but Maye enters the league pretty raw and the Patriots haven’t really given him the talent around him that he needs to succeed. In fact, it’s very possible the Patriots sit Maye for at least a big chunk of his rookie season so he can sit and learn, rather than putting him in a tough situation and letting him potentially develop bad habits.

The Patriots brought back Jacoby Brissett, their former backup, to be the stopgap quarterback until they are ready to play Maye. in 48 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, Brissett hasn’t been bad, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 6.61 YPA, 51 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions (85.3 QB rating), and it wouldn’t be hard for either Brissett or Maye to be better than what the Patriots had at quarterback last year, when their ranked 30th in the league with a 73.8 QB rating, but Brissett isn’t the kind of quarterback who can elevate a poor supporting cast and it’s unlikely he finds much success this season. It’s ultimately very likely that the Patriots will have no choice but to throw Maye into the fire earlier than they’d like, with Brissett unlikely to win many games. Brissett is not a bad stopgap and Maye has a huge upside, but for 2024, this looks like a pretty weak quarterback situation, relative to the rest of the league.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

One group that should be healthier than a year ago in the Patriots’ receiving corps. This was already a weak group going into last season, but things went from bad to worse when they lost Kendrick Bourne, who had a 37/406/4 slash line and a 1.73 yards per route run average in 8 games, to a torn ACL. In Bourne’s absence, 6th round rookie DeMario Douglas took on a bigger role and did pretty well, posting a 39/418/0 slash line in a 9-game stretch and finishing the season with a 49/561/0 slash line and a 1.70 yards per route run average, but he also missed significant time with injuries. This season Bourne and Douglas both return, the former after re-signing on a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal this off-season, and both should play in three wide receiver sets with second round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk. 

The Patriots also used a 4th round pick on Javon Baker, signed veteran KJ Osborn in free agency, and have JuJu Smith-Schuster and TyQuan Thornton, who they have made big investments in recently, Smith-Schuster on a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal given last off-season and Thornton being added in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. However, I don’t have high expectations for any of those four players.

Osborn has been the #3 wide receiver with the Vikings for the past three seasons, but he’s been underwhelming, with a 1.11 yards per route run average, and he only signed for 1-year and 4 million this off-season. Baker is a rookie and not a highly drafted one. Thornton was highly drafted, but has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, averaging just 0.73 yards per route run and missing 12 games with injury. Smith-Schuster has a history of some success, exceeding 2 yards per route run in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has an average of just 1.40 yards per route run in five seasons since and even that is inflated by a 1.77 yards per route run average he had in 2022 with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football.

Even their top-3 of Bourne, Douglas, and Polk have their uncertainties. Obviously Polk is a rookie and could have some growing pains in year one, even if he enters the league with a lot of upside. Bourne is coming off of a major injury and, even if he bounces back to form, he’s still an underwhelming #1 option, with a 1.67 yards per route run average in the past four seasons combined. Douglas, meanwhile, was only a 6th round pick a year ago and, while he showed promise as a rookie, it was in a very limited sample size. This group has some options and should be better than a year ago, but they are pretty underwhelming overall.

With the issues they have at wide receiver, expect tight end Hunter Henry to be a big part of the offense again, after he finished third on the team in catches, second in receiving yards, and first in touchdowns last season. Still, that only translated to a 42/419/6 slash line, the worst receiving yardage total of his 8 seasons in the league, and a 1.13 yards per route run average, also a career worst. Quarterback play was part of the problem for Henry, as it was for all of these pass catcher, but he has a 1.27 yards per route run average over the past four seasons total and now heads into his age 30 season. 

The Patriots gave Henry a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal to stay as a free agent this off-season, making him the 14th highest paid tight end in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he could easily prove to not be worth that. Behind Henry, the Patriots signed another underwhelming veteran, Austin Hooper, on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar deal. In total, Hooper has averaged 1.22 yards per route run over the past four seasons, including 0.87 yards per route run last season, and he now heads into his age 30 season. Neither Henry nor Hooper are particularly good blockers either. Overall, this is a very underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Aside from the receiving corps, the Patriots’ offensive line was their biggest need coming into the off-season. The Patriots did re-sign Mike Onwenu on a well-deserved 3-year, 57 million dollar deal, after the 2020 6th round pick received PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, and 71.5 in the four seasons of his rookie deal, with his career worst year in 2023 becoming a lot better once the Patriots moved him to right tackle in week 7 (79.3 PFF grade from then on). However, the Patriots didn’t do anything to improve this group this off-season and it’s hard to see how they’ll be better than a year ago, when they ranked 12th on PFF in run blocking grade and 29th in pass blocking grade.

Left tackle Trent Brown was injury prone last season, limited to 579 snaps in 11 games, but he played well when on the field with a 80.2 PFF grade and he signed elsewhere as a free agent this off-season. In his place, the Patriots signed veteran Chukwuma Okorafor and used a third round pick on Caeden Walllace. Okorafor was a starter for the Steelers for three and a half seasons starting in 2020 (55 starts), but he posted mediocre grades of 57.5, 63.6, 61.2, and 60.4 and was eventually benched mid-season during the 2023 season and then subsequently cut this off-season. Okorafor also has mostly played at the easier right tackle spot, with just two career starts at left tackle, coming back in his rookie season in 2018, so he could really struggle on the blindside for the Patriots. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he ended up getting benched mid-season for the second straight year in favor of the rookie Wallace, but Wallace probably wouldn’t fare much better.

On the interior of the offensive line, the Patriots have center David Andrews, who is probably their second best offensive lineman behind Onwenu, right guard Sidy Sow, a 2023 4th round pick who was decent with a 64.4 PFF grade in 13 starts after Onwenu moved to right tackle last season, and left guard Cole Strange, a 2022 1st round pick who has been a disappointment thus far and who is also coming off of a significant knee injury that has him questionable for the start of the 2024 season.

Andrews has made 117 starts in eight healthy seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, with six seasons above 70, including a 71.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s going into his age 32 season now and could start declining. He’s starting from a pretty high base point, so even if he declines he could remain at least a solid starter, but any decline from him would be a concern for an offensive line that is already in rough shape. Strange, meanwhile, struggled with a 54.6 PFF grade on 982 snaps as a rookie before improving slightly with a 64.6 PFF grade on 564 snaps last season before getting hurt. If he wasn’t coming off of an injury, I would like his chances of taking a step forward in year three, but the injury throws a lot of uncertainty to the mix, as he could miss time to begin the year and/or not be 100% when he returns.

If Strange misses time, the Patriots replacement options are pretty underwhelming. Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi were 4th and 5th round picks in 2023, but Andrews played just 71 mediocre snaps as a rookie, while Mafi struggled mightily with a 32.3 PFF grade in 458 snaps. The Patriots also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Layden Robinson to give themselves some additional depth on the interior, but he also could struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. With Trent Brown gone and Cole Strange having injury uncertainty, this offensive line could be even worse than a year ago, when they were already an underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Another key offensive playmaker the Patriots lost to injury last season was running back Rhomandre Stevenson, who missed the final five games. He only averaged 3.97 YPC on 156 carries, but that was largely because of the lack of talent around him on offense and he was significantly more efficient than the Patriots’ other running back Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged just 3.49 YPC, leading the team with 184 carries because he stayed healthy all season. A 4th round pick in 2021, Stevenson still has a career 4.54 YPC average on 499 carries in three seasons in the league, despite his underwhelming average last season, and he also contributes in the passing game with a 1.17 yards per route run average and 121 catches in 41 career games. Still only in his age 26 season, Stevenson should be at least a solid all-around back again in 2024.

The Patriots also signed Antonio Gibson to replace Ezekiel Elliott as the #2 back. He only has a career 4.12 YPC average on 642 carries, but has mostly played on mediocre offenses in Washington and he also contributes in the passing game with a career 1.30 yards per route run average and 172 catches in 61 career games, so he’s an above average #2 back. Stevenson, who was on pace for 284 touches last season before getting hurt, will remain the lead back, but Gibson should have a significant role behind him. Depth behind Stevenson and Gibson is a concern because their third back is Kevin Harris, a 2022 6th round pick with just 37 career touches, but the Patriots at least have a solid top-2 at this position.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Patriots defense could have trouble repeating their solid play from a year ago without Bill Belichick at the helm, but there are some reasons for optimism with this group, as the Patriots also had significant injuries on this side of the ball and should be healthier in 2024. One of their biggest injury losses last season was top edge defender Matt Judon, who only played 184 snaps in 4 games due to injury and who had a 70.2 PFF grade with 4 sacks, 5 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. His absence was huge because the Patriots struggled to create pressure off the edge without him.

Anfernee Jennings led this group in snaps played with 677 and, while he was a strong run defender, he struggled mightily as a pass rusher with just 1.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 7.6% pressure rate. Deatrich Wise (615 snaps) also struggled as a pass rusher with 4.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate and didn’t even play the run well either, leading to him finishing the year with a 54.3 grade overall on PFF. Keion White (522 snaps) was mostly just a run stopper as well, finishing the season with 1 sack, 4 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate, while Josh Uche was an effective situational pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 6 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate, but only saw 331 snaps on the season because the Patriots didn’t trust his run defense.

Judon returns in 2024 to a group that is otherwise the same. Prior his injury plagued 2023, Judon had 58.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in 96 games over his previous six seasons, while only missing three games total, so the bounce back potential is high here, but it’s also worth noting that he’s going into his age 32 season and could decline in 2024. Even if he does, he should still be a welcome re-addition, but the Patriots might not be getting the best version of Judon at this point in his career. Wise also might have some bounce back potential, as he had 15 sacks, 29 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate in 63 games in his previous four seasons prior to last season, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days might be behind him. 

Jennings and White will likely remain in base package roles, with the former re-signing on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Jennings was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has just a 8.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s also exceeded 70 in run defense grade on PFF in every season in the league except 2021, when he missed the whole season due to injury. White, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2023 and could take a step forward in year two after posting a 64.2 overall grade as a rookie, but he’ll likely always remain a better run defender than pass rusher.

Uche also re-signed with the Patriots this off-season on an incentivized 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and will likely remain in a sub package role. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Uche has 18.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate in 51 career games, but he’s also never played more than 373 snaps in a season because of his struggles against the run. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. This group should be better in 2024 because of the return of Matt Judon and they have some decent situational players at this position aside from Judon, but Judon and arguably their second best all-around edge defender Deatrich Wise are both on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

With Judon missing most of last season, the Patriots were led in sacks by an interior defender, Christian Barmore, who had 8.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Barmore has been a good pass rusher throughout his career, exceeding 70 in pass rush grade on PFF in all three seasons in the league, while totaling 12.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 44 games, but last season was the first season he didn’t struggle against the run, going from a 45.8 PFF run defense grade and a 46.9 PFF run defense grade in 2021 and 2022 respectively to a 67.8 PFF run defense grade last season. 

As a result of that, Barmore had his best overall PFF grade at 83.8, up significantly from 63.5 and 68.6 in his first two seasons in the league. It’s possible he regresses as a run defender in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s turned a corner in that aspect of his game and, even if he hasn’t, he should remain a high level pass rusher at the very least. Still only going into his age 25 season, the Patriots wisely locked Barmore up long-term on a 4-year, 83 million dollar deal that makes him the 11th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

Davon Godchaux will remain the starter next to Barmore, but he’s not nearly as good of a player. Godchaux has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 4.4% pressure rate in seven seasons in the league, but that fell to an all-time low of 2.1% in 2023 and he wasn’t that good as a run defender either, unlike earlier in his career. As a result, he fell to an overall grade of 50.2 on 685 snaps on PFF, his second straight overall grade under 60 after posting a 53.1 PFF grade on 659 snaps in 2022. Now heading into his age 30 season, I would expect Godchaux to continue struggling in 2024.

The Patriots parted ways with veteran Lawrence Guy this off-season, which isn’t really a loss because he had a 45.5 PFF grade on 522 snaps last season, but the Patriots still don’t really have good depth at this position. They signed Armon Watts in free agency and he’s at least a solid situational pass rusher, with a career 7.2% pressure rate, but he’s not much of a run defender and, as a result, has played just 466 snaps per season over the past four seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. 

Daniel Ekuale returns after missing all but three games (53 snaps) due to injury last season, but he’s not a great depth option either, only exceeding 60 on PFF in two of six seasons in the league, while never playing more than 362 snaps in a season. To mask their lack of depth on the interior, expect the Patriots to use Keion White and Deatrich Wise, their two biggest edge defenders at 6-5 290 and 6-5 280 respectively, on the interior more frequently, something they did somewhat regularly in 2023. Christian Barmore is one of the best interior defenders in the league, especially as a pass rusher, but this is a very top heavy position group. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The biggest concern for this defense without Belichick is that the players who struggled elsewhere, but broke out with the Patriots will regress without Belichick’s guidance and scheme. A big example of that is top linebacker Jahlani Tavai. A 2nd round pick by the Lions in 2019, Tavai struggled in his first home, with PFF grades of 61.6 and 32.1 on snap counts of 597 and 624 respectively, before landing in New England, where he has posted PFF grades of 73.5 and 86.6 on snap counts of 570 and 838 over the past two seasons respectively. Going into his age 28 season, Tavai should theoretically be in his prime, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him regress in 2024 due to the coaching change, which would be a big blow to this defense, as he was arguably their best defensive player a year ago.

Jawhaun Bentley will remain the other every down linebacker next to Tavai. A 5th round pick in 2018, Bentley showed promise early in his career in limited action, before breaking out in a larger role over the past few seasons, with PFF grades of 68.2, 80.4, and 65.8 on snap counts of 693, 907, and 984 over the past three seasons respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. He might miss the leadership of his former head coach, but I wouldn’t consider him as strong a candidate to regress as Tavai. 

Mack Wilson excelled as the third linebacker with a 81.5 PFF grade on 305 snaps last season, but wasn’t brought back for 2024. In Wilson’s place, the Patriots signed Sione Takitaki, who should be a solid third linebacker, though not as good as Wilson was a year ago. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Takitaki has been a part-time player his whole career, maxing out at 563 snaps in a season, with an average of 377 snaps per season, but he’s always played pretty well, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with a 71.2 PFF grade on 435 snaps in 2020. 

In 2023, Takitaki played a career high in snaps and received a 68.6 PFF grade. He probably won’t play quite as much in New England unless there are injuries, but he should be a useful role player in base packages. This is a solid linebacking corps, but they might not get the high level play they got a year ago, with Mack Wilson gone and Bill Belichick no longer around to get the most out of Jahlani Tavai.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with Matt Judon, the other big injury loss on the Patriots’ defense last season was cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was only a rookie, but the first round pick entered the league with a ton of potential and had a 80.8 PFF grade across 209 snaps through four games before getting hurt. It’s a small sample size and I wouldn’t expect Gonzalez to keep that up over the course of a whole season, but he at least has the potential to and, even if he doesn’t, he should still be an above average starter.

Marcus Jones also missed most of last season with injury, limited to 44 snaps in two games, and he should be their primary slot cornerback in 2024 now that he’s healthy again. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Jones is still unproven, only playing 371 snaps as a rookie before barely playing last season, but he had a 67.6 grade as a rookie and a 64.2 grade last season, so he’s flashed at least some potential and is probably the Patriots best option on the slot.

Myles Bryant (852 snaps), JC Jackson (439 snaps), and Jack Jones (127 snaps) are all no longer with the team, but they mostly struggled last season, with PFF grades of 66.6, 35.4, and 46.6 respectively, so they won’t really be missed. They weren’t replaced, but the Patriots at least have Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones back healthy. Jonathan Jones (724 snaps) does return and he figures to remain a starter. He had a 76.5 PFF grade last season and has finished above 60 on PFF in his last five seasons, with three seasons over 70 and a career best 80.7 in 2020. Jones is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start declining soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he should remain at least a solid starting outside cornerback opposite Gonzalez, with Jones likely on the slot.

Their other slot options are Shaun Wade and Alex Austin, who return after decent seasons in limited roles in 2023, with PFF grades of 66.3 and 61.8 on snap counts of 348 and 211 respectively. Wade was a 5th round pick in 2021 and only played 29 snaps in two seasons prior to last season, so he’s a very unproven option, but he at least has some upside. Austin is in a similar situation as an unproven former late round pick, going in the 7th round in 2023. They’re pretty underwhelming depth options and will almost definitely remain behind Marcus Jones on the depth chart as long as he stays healthy.

To mask their lack of depth at cornerback, the Patriots could use three safeties together in sub packages frequently. Jalen Mills, their 3rd safety a year ago, is no longer with the team after playing 459 snaps, but he had a 59.1 PFF grade and the Patriots have 2023 3rd round pick Marte Mapu waiting in the wings, so Mills won’t really be missed. Mapu had a 50.0 PFF grade on 204 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to take a step forward in year two. He’s a versatile player who can play on the slot and at linebacker if needed.

Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger remain as the starters and both are also versatile. Dugger, a 2nd round pick in 2020, was re-signed to a 4-year, 58 million dollar deal this off-season after being transition tagged, making him the 7th highest paid safety in the league in terms of average annual value. Dugger isn’t quite worth that kind of money, but he’s a good, young player that the Patriots couldn’t afford to let leave, finishing above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league. Last season was actually the lowest PFF grade of his career, as he finished at 61.7, but he had a 78.4 PFF grade the year before and, only in his age 28 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2024.

Peppers, on the other hand, is coming off of a dominant season with a 87.3 PFF grade on 955 snaps, but, like Jahlani Tavai, he’s another player who could regress significantly without Belichick around. A first round pick in 2017, Peppers was underwhelming in his first two stops with the Browns and Giants, finishing in the 50s and 60s on PFF in all but one season, but he jumped to a 75.0 PFF grade in a part-time role (398) in his first season in New England in 2022 and then broke out even further as an every down player in 2023. 

Still only in his age 29 season, Peppers is theoretically still in his prime, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll regress without the head coach who got the most out of him over the past two seasons. This secondary has a lot of upside if Christian Gonzalez can reach his potential and Jabrill Peppers can avoid regressing, but their depth is also suspect and if Gonzalez doesn’t reach his potential and Peppers regresses, they will lack any true impact players.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The big off-season move the Patriots made was firing long-time head coach and GM Bill Belichick. Belichick’s defensive leadership would be missed, but letting go of him gave the Patriots an opportunity to enter a new era and, armed with the 3rd overall pick and significant cap space, the Patriots had the ammunition to improve in a hurry. Instead, they saved most of their cap space and what money they did spend they mostly spent re-signing players that Belichick had brought in. 

The Patriots did use the 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, but he enters the league pretty raw and doesn’t have the talent he needs around him to have success right away. The Patriots should still be healthier than a year ago and it would be hard for their quarterback situation to be as bad as it was a year ago, which could turn some of their close losses from a year ago into close wins, but, on the other hand, their defense could regress without Belichick’s leadership and, overall, this team doesn’t look anywhere near talented enough to compete even for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC.

Update: Continuing with their rebuild, the Patriots traded Matt Judon to the Falcons for a draft pick. They’ll also be without Christian Barmore for the start of the season for medical reasons. Add in the fact that they have one of the toughest schedules in the league and it’s hard to see the Patriots winning more than a few games.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in AFC East

Miami Dolphins 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Quarterbacks

Heading into the off-season before the 2019 season, the Dolphins had been stuck in mediocrity for over a decade and a half. They had won at least 6 games in all but 2 of their previous 17 seasons, but had only finished above .500 five times, never winning more than 11 games in a season, with just two playoff appearances and no playoff victories. To try to get out of that cycle, the Dolphins pursued an aggressive rebuilding strategy, trading away numerous veterans to try to tank for a high draft pick and a potential young franchise quarterback, and to accumulate future draft picks and cap space to surround that young franchise quarterback with as much talent as possible while he was still on his cheap rookie deal.

The strategy landed them their 5th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after a 5-11 season and they used that draft pick on Tua Tagovailoa, who they systematically loaded up on talent around over the next few off-seasons, using their draft picks to add more young talent in the draft and to trade for impact veterans, while also being aggressive in free agency. The Dolphins immediately jumped to 10-6 in 2020 and rattled off four consecutive seasons with records above .500, but they still couldn’t get over the hump, maxing out with a 11-6 season in 2023 and losing in the first round of both of their playoff appearances, pushing their playoff win drought to 23 seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL.

Last season was especially frustrating. They came out of the gates looking like one of the best teams in the league, starting 3-0 and 6-2, but went just 5-4 after that hot start. In terms of DVOA, the Dolphins were better than their final record, ranking 6th overall, but that didn’t matter when the post-season began. Many will blame their late season collapse on their schedule getting tougher and, in fact, they did finish just 1-6 against playoff qualifiers if you count their first round post-season loss to the Chiefs, with 5 of those 7 games coming in the second half of the season after their hot start, but they won their games against non-playoff qualifiers convincingly enough that it should have translated into more success against better opponents than they had. 

The bigger problem was they increasingly lost key players to injury down the stretch. They finished the season with the 12th most adjusted games lost to injury, which doesn’t sound bad, but those injuries were disproportionately to their key players and they disproportionately happened down the stretch, to the point where the Dolphins were basically a skeleton crew by season’s end and didn’t stand a chance on the road against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.

Making last season even more frustrating is the fact that their window is starting to close. Tagovailoa is no longer on the cheap part of his rookie contract, owed 23.171 million in 2024 and will be due an increase even from that on his eventual long-term extension, while the bill is starting to come due for many of the talented players the Dolphins surrounded Tagovailoa with over the years. The Dolphins’ aggressive rebuilding strategy made sense, but they had a limited window to go on a deep playoff run and it’s looking like that window is about to close, if it hasn’t already. Rather than continuing to load up on additional talent around the quarterback this off-season, the Dolphins had to part ways with several talented players.

I’ll get into the Dolphins’ off-season losses later, but probably the biggest problem with the Dolphins’ rebuilding strategy was their choice of quarterback, as Tagovailoa has not looked like the right quarterback to lead this team all the way. Tagovailoa struggled for most of his first two seasons in the league, completing a combined 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 21 starts, while repeatedly getting benched for veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Tagovailoa has been a lot more productive over the past two seasons, completing a combined 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.51 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions in 30 starts, but he missed four games with injury in 2022 and, while he stayed healthy in 2023, a lot of his statistical success can be attributed to the talent and scheme he’s had around him and he’s consistently underperformed in big games against tough opponents. Making matters worse for the Dolphins, a quarterback who could have had success with this roster, Justin Herbert, was available for the taking, going just one spot after Tagovailoa to the Chargers with the 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Now the Dolphins are in a tough spot with Tagovailoa. Starting over at the quarterback position would be tough, because the Dolphins don’t have an obvious path to finding a better quarterback, unless they blow it all up again, start completely over, and tried to tank and find another quarterback atop the draft. However, Tagovailoa also isn’t the kind of quarterback who deserves the kind of extension the Dolphins will likely have to give him to stay long-term. 

The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, as it’s very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win at the highest level if that quarterback is taking up a significant portion of the salary cap. If Tagovailoa couldn’t find playoff success with the amount of talent he’s had around him the past couple seasons, it’s unlikely he’ll find that success with a diminished supporting cast and that’s the reality the Dolphins are faced with if and when they ultimately end up paying their quarterback. 

Tagovailoa’s durability also still lingers as a problem. He stayed healthy last season, but has suffered numerous injuries dating back to his collegiate days, most notable a series of concussions that might legitimately have him a concussion or two away from having to either miss significant time or hang them up for good for his own safety. If Tagovailoa misses time in 2024, the Dolphins would turn to Mike White, a mediocre quarterback with a completion percentage of 62.6%, a YPA average of 7.09, and 9 touchdowns to 13 interceptions on 313 career passes since going in the 5th round in 2018.

White would be an obvious downgrade even if Tagovailoa is not an elite quarterback and if White had to start for an extended period of time in 2024, the Dolphins would likely find it difficult to even qualify for the post-season.  The one saving grace is Tagovailoa is only in his age 26 season and still theoretically could have untapped upside, but he’ll have to take his game to another level if this team is ever going to go on a deep playoff run with him under center. There are definitely worse quarterback rooms than this, but the Dolphins are in a very difficult spot from a team building standpoint and, even if they stay healthier than they did a year ago, it’s hard to see them being more successful, in the regular season or in the post-season, given the talented players they lost this off-season, unless Tagovailoa can take his game to another level.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One area where the Dolphins lost key players this off-season was on the offensive line, with Connor Williams and Robert Hunt both not being retained this off-season. Williams and Hunt were among the key players who missed time with injury last season, limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and 547 snaps in 10 games respectively, but they also had PFF grades of 86.5 and 77.1 respectively, so they will definitely be missed. The Dolphins at least somewhat replaced Williams through free agency, signing Aaron Brewer to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal to be their new starting center. 

Undrafted in 2020, Brewer became the Titans full-time starting center in his third season in the league in 2022 and struggled with a 59.9 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he took a step forward in his second season as a starter in 2023, finishing with a 71.6 PFF grade on 17 starts. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level and it’s possible he is unable to repeat that season, but he’s not a bad signing either, for the price the Dolphins got him at. He will almost definitely be a downgrade from Williams even if he doesn’t decline, but at least he should stay healthier than the injury prone Williams.

Hunt, on the other hand, was not replaced this off-season. Instead, the Dolphins will have a competition between Lester Cotton, Robert Jones, and Isaiah Wynn, who all saw starts at guard last season, as well as Jack Driscoll, a low-level free agent signing from the Eagles. Two of those four players will likely open the season as the starting guards and, given that they’re all underwhelming options, it’s likely that three or all four of them see action at some point this season as the Dolphins try to find a combination that works.

Cotton had the most starts of the bunch a year ago, making 8 starts, but that was out of character for him, as the 2019 undrafted free agent had previously played just 95 career snaps in four seasons in the league, and he predictably struggled when forced into a larger role in 2023, finishing with a 46.4 PFF grade. Wynn also struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade in 7 starts, before going down for the season with an injury. Wynn was a first round pick back in 2018, but injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career, costing him 47 games in 6 seasons in the league. He showed some potential early in his career, but injuries seem to have sapped that potential, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Now going into his age 29 season, his bounce back potential is limited, even if he can manage to stay on the field.

Robert Jones wasn’t bad last season, with a 60.9 PFF grade, but injuries also limited him to 418 snaps in 7 games. Undrafted in 2021, Jones also had a 62.0 PFF grade on 449 snaps in 2022, so he’s shown some potential, but he could struggle to hold up as a season-long starter and it’s unlikely he has a lot of upside, given that he wasn’t drafted. Driscoll, meanwhile, made 17 starts in four seasons with the Eagles after being drafted in the 4th round in 2020 and he had mixed results, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of his four seasons in the league and below 60 in his other two seasons. He would also likely struggle if forced into a season-long starting role. Overall, none of the Dolphins four guard options are promising, which is a big concern entering the season.

Making matters worse for the Dolphins on the offensive line, left tackle Terron Armstead is now going into his age 33 season. Armstead has consistently has issues with injuries, missing 59 games in 11 seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in all but one season, including 7 games missed in 2023, but he’s also always played at a pretty high level, exceeding 75 on PFF in ten straight seasons, with six seasons over 80, including a 80.9 PFF grade in 2023. Given his age, Armstead is likely to miss time again with injury at some point in 2024 and it’s very possible he declines noticeably. He’ll probably still remain at least a solid starter even if he does decline, but any drop off from him would be a big deal on an offensive line that already had lost significant talent from a year ago.

Because of Armstead’s age and injury history, the Dolphins used their second round pick on offensive tackle Patrick Paul to give them another insurance policy option. He’ll compete with Kendall Lamm, a veteran who had a 64.3 PFF grade on 613 snaps a year ago, for the swing tackle role. Lamm has been most decent in 37 starts in 9 seasons in the league, mostly as a backup, but he’s going into his age 32 season and doesn’t have a high upside, so Paul is probably the favorite for the top reserve tackle job, even as a rookie.

There are a couple other ways Paul could get on the field besides an injury, as the Dolphins could opt to try him at guard, or they could play him at right tackle and move Austin Jackson inside to guard where he has experience, but there’s no indication the Dolphins are considering doing either of those things and it’s possible Paul could struggle as a rookie if he ends up in a starting role. 

Jackson was a first round pick in 2020, but he was mostly a bust in the first three seasons of his career, with PFF grades of 52.5, 49.9, and 57.9 across 30 starts in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Jackson took a big step forward in year four, finishing with a 68.4 PFF grade in 16 starts, and was subsequently extended on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal after originally having his 5th year option declined. It’s possible he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and came into the league with a lot of talent, so it’s also very possible he’s permanently turned a corner and could remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more. Barring an unexpected move back to guard, Jackson is likely locked into as the starting right tackle. Even if he doesn’t regress though, this is overall a very underwhelming offensive line compared to a year ago.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Fortunately, the Dolphins kept all of their key skill position players this off-season, led by the wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league, Hill and Waddle both finished with PFF grades over 90 in 2023, at 93.7 and 90.7 respectively, and the Dolphins ran a huge portion of their offense through them, as they accounted for 48.6% of the Dolphins targets, 59.9% of their receiving yards, and 56.7% of their receiving touchdowns, all most in the NFL by a wide receiver duo.

For Hill, it was a career best year in terms of yardage (1,799), PFF grade, and yards per route run (3.82), which is even more impressive when you consider that he’s been in the league eight years and has exceeded 80 on PFF in all eight seasons, with 1,267 receiving yards per season and 2.61 yards per route run. Hill’s age is a bit of a concern, now going into his age 30 season, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he figures to remain one of the best wide receivers in the league regardless. The Dolphins paid a steep price to acquire Hill during the 2022 off-season, giving up first and second round picks and giving him a 3-year, 75 million dollar deal, but he has been well worth it, given how he has transformed this offense.

Waddle also transformed this offense when he was added as the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and he has gotten better in every season in the league. His yardage total in 2023 (72/1014/4) was actually the worst of his 3-year career, after slash lines of 104/1015/6 and 75/1356/8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but that was mostly because he missed three games with injury and didn’t run as many routes per game on a more balanced offense. In terms of yards per route run, Waddle had a career high with 2.64 (1.75 in 2021 and 2.59 in 2022) and the same was true of his PFF grade, after he had a 78.3 grade as a rookie and a 83.9 grade in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue playing at a high level in 2024, after the Dolphins wisely locked him up long-term on a 3-year, 84.75 million dollar extension this off-season.

With Hill and Waddle getting a huge chunk of the targets on this offense, there wasn’t much left over for anyone else, with tight end Durham Smythe ranking third on the team in catches, targets, and yards with just 35, 43, and 366 respectively. The Dolphins did add a couple pass catchers in free agency this off-season to give them some more options in the passing game, signing Odell Beckham to be the #3 receiver and tight end Jonnu Smith to compete with Smythe for the starting tight end job, but I wouldn’t expect huge roles for either of them as the Dolphins will continue to run their offense through Hill and Waddle.

Beckham used to be one of the best wide receivers in the league, exceeding 1000 yards in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2014-2019, with the exception being a season ended by injury after 4 games, but injuries have caught up to him in recent years, limiting him to 35 games in the past four seasons, with just a 50/690/5 slash line per 17 games. He still has a decent 1.60 yards per route run average over that 4-year span, but he now heads into his age 32 season and it’s likely he’ll miss more time with injury and/or regress further. 

It wouldn’t be hard for Beckham to be an upgrade over Cedrick Wilson, their nominal #3 receiver a year ago who had a 22/296/3 slash line and a 1.09 yards per route run average, but I don’t expect Beckham to be a big part of this offense unless Hill or Waddle get hurt, in which case he’d be a huge downgrade from either one. Braxton Berrios, meanwhile, remains as the #4 receiver, but he had just a 27/238/1 slash line and a 0.68 yards per route run average in 2023, so he’s not a big part of this offense either. In his career, Berrios has averaged 1.30 yards per route run, but just 0.76 yards per route run over the past two seasons.

Jonnu Smith, meanwhile, has a decent 1.61 yards per route run average over the past five seasons, but he’s been a part-time tight end for most of that time and has never exceeded 582 yards receiving in a season, something he’s unlikely to do in 2024, splitting time with Durham Smythe on an offense that doesn’t utilize the tight end spot much. I would expect him to outproduce Smythe though, as Smythe is more of a blocking specialist who has averaged just 1.00 yards per route run in his career, with a maximum of 366 yards receiving in a season in six seasons in the league. Beckham and Smith upgrade this offense slightly, but this receiving corps still will run through Hill and Waddle, who remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Dolphins also got great production from their top two running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane in 2023. Mostert led the team with 209 carries and averaged 4.84 YPC with 18 touchdowns in 15 games, while Achane averaged a ridiculous 7.77 YPC, but was limited to just 103 carries in 11 games. When both backs were healthy though, that carry split was a lot closer. Excluding two games where Achane played but was clearly not healthy and only had one carry, Achane and Mostert were healthy for seven games together and Mostert had 88 carries to 77 for Achane in those seven games.

In 2024, I would expect them to continue having a pretty even split as long as both are healthy and it’s very possible that Achane ends up as the top back. Not only did he significantly outproduce Mostert last season, but Achane was only a rookie last season, while Mostert is now going into his age 32 season. Achane is also a significantly better pass catcher, averaging 1.12 yards per route run last season, as opposed to 0.68 for Mostert, who has a career average of 0.88. Durability is a concern for Achane after an injury plagued rookie season, but Mostert has a significant history of injuries as well, missing 26 games over the past five seasons, and as a result he’s never had more carries in a season than the 209 carries he had last season, when he also missed a couple games with injury.

Regardless of the carry split, Achane and Mostert should both remain very effective running backs. Achane is highly unlikely to average anywhere close to what he averaged last season, especially in a larger role, partially because no one has that kind of average for an extended period of time, partially because the Dolphins’ offensive line won’t be as good this season, but he should still remain a highly effective back. Mostert, meanwhile, has a career 4.84 YPC average and, even if he doesn’t match that this season, given his age and the Dolphins’ offensive line situation, he should still remain an effective back. 

The Dolphins will be hoping both Achane and Mostert will be healthier than they were a year ago, but the Dolphins used a 4th round pick on Jaylen Wright to improve their depth at the position. Last season, Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed were their top backs behind Mostert and Achane and they averaged just 3.95 yards per carry with 0.97 yards per route run combined. Wilson does have a career 4.49 YPC average, but he has just 515 carries in six seasons in the league and has averaged just 0.85 yards per route run, while Ahmed has averaged just 3.64 YPC on 163 carries in four seasons in the league, with 1.00 yards per route run. There’s no guarantee that Jaylen Wright will be better than them as a rookie, but the Dolphins at least like his upside and there’s a chance he ends up as a long-term replacement for the aging Raheem Mostert. This remains a talented backfield and they could be deeper than a year ago if the rookie Jaylen Wright has an impact.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Dolphins’ defense is where the majority of their off-season losses were. Since last season, 5 of their top-9 and 9 of their top-17 in terms of snaps played on defense are no longer on the team. The player they lost who played the best last season is edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel, who had a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, totaling 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate and also excelling as a run defender and in coverage, before signing with the Vikings on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season. The Dolphins also lost Emmanuel Ogbah, though he played just 248 snaps in 14 games last season, contributing as a pass rusher with 5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate, but struggling mightily against the run and finishing with an overall 55.4 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed too much.

To try to replace the players they lost, the Dolphins signed veteran Shaq Barrett to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal and then used their first round pick on Chop Robinson. Both will have significant roles this season along with holdovers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips. Chubb excelled last season, finishing with a 88.8 PFF grade, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher with 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate, in his first full season in Miami after being acquired for a first round pick during the 2022 season, when the Dolphins also gave him a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension.

A first round pick in 2018 by the Broncos, Chubb had shown a lot of promise in his career prior to last season, especially as a pass rusher, with 28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games, but he missed 25 games with injury in those five seasons and consistently struggled against the run, leading to him maxing out with a 70.7 season-long PFF grade during those five seasons. Chubb is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him either regress somewhat after by far the best season of his career and/or miss more time with injury, after tearing his ACL late last season, making him a question mark for the start of the 2024 season.

Phillips also played well last season with a 79.8 PFF grade, but he was limited to 8 games by injuries and is questionable for the start of the 2024 season after an achilles tear. Even if he is ready for the start of the season, he might not be at his best in his first year back. That being said, even at less than his best, he’s a welcome re-addition. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2021, Phillips was underwhelming as a rookie, but he’s been much better the past two seasons, maxing out with a 87.7 PFF grade on 838 snaps in 2022 and totaling 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games, while also playing the run well. Still only in his age 25 season, he has a very bright future if he can get past his injury.

First round rookie Chop Robinson and veteran free agent acquisition Shaq Barrett give the Dolphins good depth at this position and will rotate with Chubb and Phillips frequently. Robinson could have growing pains as a rookie, but he has a high upside long-term and he should at least be a useful rotational player as a rookie. Barrett, meanwhile, is probably on the way down, going into his age 32 season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that he should continue playing at a relatively high level in a rotational role. 

Barrett finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, playing the run well and adding 51.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 107 games, despite going undrafted in 2014. He fell to a 68.3 PFF grade in an injury shortened season in 2022 (382 snaps), but bounced back pretty well with a 75.3 PFF grade in 2023, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Because of his age, he was still let go by the Buccaneers ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary this off-season, but he could be a great value for the Dolphins on a much cheaper deal. The Dolphins will miss Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb could regress after a career best year in 2023, but this is still a deep and talented position group, arguably deeper than a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins also lost a key player at the interior defender position this off-season, letting Christian Wilkins walk in free agency, despite a 2023 season in which he had a 74.9 PFF grade on 895 snaps, playing the run well and also contributing 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. The Dolphins wanted to keep Wilkins, but, given their financial situation, franchise tagging him was not realistic, nor was matching the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he ended up getting from the Raiders. The Dolphins also lost Raekwon Davis, though that isn’t as big of a loss, as he finished last season with a 58.8 PFF grade on 499 snaps. 

Unlike on the edge, the Dolphins did a pretty poor job of replacing the players they lost, with veteran free agent additions Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones, Teair Tart, and Jonathan Harris all being underwhelming options. Those four will all compete for rotational roles, along with holdover Da’Shawn Hand, who excelled in limited action last season and who could see an increase on the 199 snaps he played in 2023. Giving Hand more playing time is probably their best option because he’s shown a lot of promise in his career, but he’s also never exceeded 455 snaps played in six seasons in the league, averaging 202 snaps played per season, while missing 54 games total over that span due to injury, so he’s not the most reliable option and his impressive play in limited action might not translate to a larger role.

Of the newcomers, Teair Tart probably is the best. The 2020 undrafted free agent has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, but he at least showed some potential with a 73.1 PFF grade on 520 snaps in 2022, playing the run well and also contributing a 8.5% pressure rate. He regressed to a 54.0 PFF grade on 378 snaps in 2023 and was cut by the Titans mid-season, before landing with the Texans to finish the season, but unlike the rest of the Dolphins’ free agent acquisitions, Tart at least has had one good season in his career. That doesn’t mean he’ll have another one in 2024, but by default he’s better than the alternatives.

Neville Gallimore was a 3rd round pick by the Cowboys in 2020, but never lived up to his potential, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons on an average of 318 snaps, including a 57.8 PFF grade on 288 snaps in 2023. Benito Jones was an undrafted free agent in 2020, barely played early in his career, and then finished with PFF grades of 53.3 and 37.4 on snap counts of 309 and 566 respectively over the past two seasons. Jonathan Harris went undrafted in 2019, played just 361 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league, before struggling with a 52.0 PFF grade in by far the biggest snap count of his career in 2023, playing 529 snaps. All three figure to struggle if forced to play a significant role, which at least one of them likely will, and Teair Tart could also struggle if he doesn’t bounce back to his 2022 form.

The Dolphins at least still have Zach Sieler, who will be their top interior defender with Wilkins gone. A 7th round pick in 2018, Sieler took a couple years to develop, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 69.3, 84.9, 74.7, and 68.1 on snap counts of 532, 518, 874, and 857 respectively over the past four seasons, playing the run well and also totaling 19 sacks, 29 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate over that time period. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another above average season as an every down player from him in 2024. He elevates a position group that is in pretty rough shape aside from him.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Dolphins also let go of linebacker Jerome Baker this off-season, ahead of a 11.133 million dollar salary owed in 2024. He probably wasn’t quite worth that salary, but he had a 66.6 PFF grade across 713 snaps in 13 games last season, so he’s not a small loss. To replace him, the Dolphins signed a couple options, Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker, who come over on contracts worth 26.25 million over 3 years and 1.3775 million over 1 year respectively. Brooks was a first round pick by the Seahawks in 2020 and has averaged 979 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league and would be an underwhelming replacement for Baker.

Walker has more upside, having finished with PFF grades of 69.1, 82.7, and 71.1 over the past three seasons, but he’s also missed 23 games over those three seasons, while playing an average of just 425 snaps per season. Walker is only going into his age 29 season and has finished above 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent problem for him throughout his career, costing him 30 games total in seven seasons in the league, while costing him at least one game in all but two seasons. If he can stay healthy, he should be a solid starter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

It’s possible both Brooks and Walker have roles in this linebacking corps, but they’ll have to compete for roles in a group that, while it lacks a high level linebacker, still has pretty good depth even without Jerome Baker. David Long had a 68.9 PFF grade on 823 snaps last season, after PFF grades of 67.4 and 76.2 on snap counts of 740 and 829 over the two seasons prior to last season. He has issues in coverage and should probably see a smaller snap count this season because of that, but he is a great run defender and should at least have a base package role. 

The Dolphins also have Duke Riley, who had a 72.5 PFF grade on 394 snaps last season, though he’s never been that good before in a season and has finished below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, while averaging 317 snaps per season and maxing out at 571 snaps in a season. Riley is also now going into his age 30 season. He’s good depth, but could wind up as the odd man out in a deeper linebacking corps than a year ago. All four of their linebackers have their issues, Brooks having struggled throughout his career, Long struggling in coverage, Walker being injury prone, and Duke Riley being inconsistent and having never played an every down role, but the Dolphins at least have options in this position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Dolphins also lost some key players in the secondary. At safety, Brandon Jones (76.8 PFF grade on 464 snaps) and DeShon Elliott (72.6 PFF grade on 926 snaps) weren’t retained this off-season. The Dolphins signed Jordan Poyer to a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal to be the starter opposite holdover Jevon Holland and Poyer has been a consistent above average safety for years, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons and 70 on PFF on five straight seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and could decline. Even if Poyer doesn’t decline, the Bills lack depth behind him and Holland, with their top reserve options being Elijah Campbell, who has played just 207 snaps in six seasons in the league, and 6th round rookie Patrick McMorris, who would almost definitely struggle if forced into a big role in year one.

The Dolphins’ lack of safety depth could become a big problem, as not only is Poyer getting up there in age, but he’s also missed 6 games over the past three seasons, while Holland has also missed 6 games in three seasons in the league. Best case scenario, Poyer doesn’t regress and both stay healthy, in which case they’d be one of the better safety duos in the league, with Holland, who is only in his age 24 season, having received PFF grades of 84.7, 65.5, and 90.4 since going in the 2nd round in 2021. More likely, Poyer regresses somewhat and at least one of them misses time with injury and exposes their lack of depth. Even if Poyer regresses, he and Holland should still be a good safety duo, with Holland being one of the top safeties in the league, but their lack of depth is a concern.

At cornerback, the Dolphins let go of veteran Xavien Howard, who was owed 18.5 million in what would have been his age 31 season in 2024, as well as Eli Apple, but both struggled with PFF grades of 55.1 and 55.3 respectively on snap counts of 743 and 551 last season, so they won’t really be missed much, especially since the Dolphins made a great signing bringing in Kendall Fuller on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Fuller will start alongside Jalen Ramsey, with Kader Kohou on the slot, and the Dolphins also have 2023 2nd round pick Cam Smith waiting in the wings as good depth, after flashing potential as a rookie, albeit on just 22 defensive snaps.

Fuller should prove to be a bargain at the price the Dolphins got him at, as he’s surpassed 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons, including five seasons over 70, three of which have come in the past three seasons, when he has made 48 of a possible 51 starts and finished with PFF grades of 81.5, 76.6, and 83.1 respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue playing at least at an above average level and, if he plays like he has the past three seasons, he should be a significant upgrade, at a cheaper price, over the departed Xavien Howard, who had struggled through injuries in recent years.

The Dolphins also should get more out of Jalen Ramsey this season, after he was limited to 585 snaps in 10 games last season and probably wasn’t fully healthy even when he did play, finishing with a 66.4 PFF grade, his worst in eight seasons in the league. Ramsey is going into his age 30 season and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best years were behind him at this point, but even if he does decline, he’s starting from a high base point, having finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons prior to last season, including three seasons above 80, most recently a 84.5 grade in 2021 and a 86.4 grade in 2022. 

Even with Ramsey’s age being a minor concern, I would expect the Dolphins to get more out of him in 2024 than they did in 2023. Meanwhile, slot cornerback Kader Kohou has received PFF grades of 69.8 and 64.5 on snap counts of 895 and 937 respectively in two seasons in the league, despite going undrafted in 2022, and he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024. The Dolphins’ secondary looks like a well above average group, with their only real concern being their lack of depth at safety, behind a couple players who could be one of the top safety duos in the league when healthy, but who also have consistently missed time with injury in recent years.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Dolphins’ championship window is narrowing as it becomes increasingly harder for them to fit all of their talent under the cap, but this team was better than their 11-6 record last season in terms of DVOA, even with all of the injuries they had down the stretch last season, and, while they lost some talented players this off-season, they overall did a pretty good job of replacing them with cheaper alternatives. They’ll still probably need quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to take a step forward to be considered true contenders, especially in the loaded AFC, but Tagovailoa is young enough that that’s a possibility. Ultimately, I still have them outside of the top teams in the AFC, but this is still a talented team overall.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC East

Houston Texans 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

Going into last off-season, the Texans looked like they had the worst long-term outlook in the NFL. They had gone just 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons combined and, thanks to only having one first round pick and two top-50 picks from 2018-2021, they didn’t have a pipeline of young talent that made their future look significantly brighter than their present. Given that, it’s remarkable how the Texans have turned things around so quickly, finishing the 2023 season with a 10-7 record and a playoff victory and, now going into 2024, they look like one of the most promising young teams in the league.

The biggest reason for their turnaround was the selection of franchise quarterback CJ Stroud with the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, their reward for yet another terrible season in 2022 and the only real bright spot for their future rebuild. Stroud ended up having more help than it looked like he would going into the season, which I’ll get into later, but it’s not an exaggeration to say that he carried this team out of last place and into the playoffs, completing 63.9% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while posting a 82.8 PFF grade and going 9-6 as a starter, with two games missed due to injury. 

Stroud’s play was remarkable before even including the fact that he was a rookie, but when that’s taken into account, Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons of all-time for a quarterback. Development isn’t always linear and it’s possible Stroud isn’t quite as good again in 2024, but he also could take another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he seems destined to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league for years to come and a potential future MVP. Simply by nailing their quarterback decision, the Texans have completely turned their fortunes around and have set themselves up for future success for years to come.

In Stroud’s absence last season, backups Davis Mills and Case Keenum each made a start and were obvious downgrades, combining to complete 56.5% of their passes for an average of 5.04 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on the season. Both are still on the roster now, but with Stroud now established as a franchise quarterback, the Texans probably don’t need to keep three quarterbacks on their roster like they did for Stroud’s rookie year, so it’s very likely one of those two will end up getting the boot before the start of the season.

Mills was a 3rd round pick by the Texans in 2021 and struggled in two years as a starter on a talentless team, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, while posting PFF grades of 58.5 and 61.9 respectively and going just 5-19-1 in his 25 starts. However, he’s still young, going into his age 26 season, and could be a solid long-term backup for Stroud. Keenum, meanwhile, has made 66 starts in 12 seasons in the league and has a decent 84.6 QB rating in his career, but he’s now going into his age 36 season and could be at the end of his rope as an NFL player. Assuming one of the two gets cut this off-season, Keenum seems like the obvious choice, especially since the Texans can save 3 million by doing so. With an elite starter and a good backup situation, the Texans have a very enviable quarterback room.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Stroud ended up having more help last season than it appeared he would going into the season and the Texans’ receiving corps is the best example of that. Going into last season, the Texans didn’t have a single wide receiver who had exceeded 500 receiving yards in the previous season, but 3rd year player Nico Collins broke out with Stroud under center, while 3rd round rookie Tank Dell also contributed in a big way. 

Collins had shown promise before, with the 2021 3rd round pick averaging 1.68 yards per route run in limited action in 2022 despite being on a bad offense, but no one could have expected Collins to have the 2023 season he did, finishing with a 80/1297/8 slash line and 3.10 yards per route run (2nd in the league among wide receivers) in 15 games. Dell, meanwhile, entered last season with some promise, but also exceeded all expectations with a 47/709/1 slash line and 2.22 yards per route run in 11 games. Collins and Dell are still young, both in their age 25 season, and both missed time with injury last season, so we could see even more out of them in 2024. Even if they disappoint a little by last year’s standards, as still relatively unproven players, both should remain very useful passing game options for Stroud.

The Texans also took advantage of having a young franchise quarterback on a cheap rookie contract by trading away a 2025 2nd round pick to the Bills to acquire veteran Stefon Diggs, who they will pay 22.52 million this season, giving them another talented wide receiver and arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. Diggs had his 6th straight 1000+ yard season last year, with a 107/1183/8 slash line, but there was a reason he was available this off-season, as last season was arguably his worst of those 6 seasons, with his yards per route run average dipping to 1.99 and his yards per target dipping to 7.39, down from 2.23 and 8.72 over the past five seasons combined. 

Diggs also was especially disappointing down the stretch in 2023, managing just a 47/422/1 slash line in his final 10 games including playoffs with a 1.30 yards per route run average, and he now heads into his age 31 season, which is a very common time for elite wide receivers to decline significantly. Given that, he was a risky acquisition who could disappoint, but given the position the Texans are in with a limited window in which their franchise quarterback is very underpaid, it’s understandable why the Texans made that move. 

It also wouldn’t be hard for Diggs to be an upgrade over Robert Woods, who had a 40/426/1 slash line as the third receiver last season and averaged just 1.02 yards per route run. Having three great wide receiver options for Stroud to throw to could decrease the overall production for all three of them, with only so many targets to go around, but this has a great chance to be the best wide receiver trio in the league.

The Texans still have Woods and Noah Brown, who played well as an injury replacement last season and who is an excellent #4 wide receiver, and they still have tight end Dalton Schultz, who was also a useful weapon for them in 2023. Brown finished last season with a 33/567/2 slash line on just 55 targets and a 1.94 yards per route run average, which is a big step forward for a player who had previously averaged 1.21 yards per route run in six seasons in the league. 

Even if Woods regresses in 2024, he should still be one of the best #4 wide receivers in the league and the Texans are unlikely to need much out of him, barring significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Woods, meanwhile, is likely to be cut before the season starts to save 5 million. He was a high level wide receiver in his prime, averaging 1.86 yards per route run from 2016-2021, with two seasons over 1,000 yards, but he’s fallen to just 1.08 yards per route run over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 32 season. If he’s kept on the roster, it’ll be as a reserve and veteran leader, likely after taking a pay cut.

The Texans also still have John Metchie, who didn’t show much in his first season of action in 2023, with a 16/158/0 slash line and a 0.92 yards per route run average, but he’s a former 2022 2nd round pick who was in his first season back from cancer treatment in 2023, so he could easily still have untapped upside, now another year healthier. He also won’t have much of a role in 2024, but he’s great insurance to have as a #5 or #6 wide receiver. Schultz, meanwhile, had a 59/635/5 slash line with a 1.47 yards per route run average last season, in his first season in Houston after signing a 1-year, 6.25 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season. 

Extended on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal this off-season, Schultz will still remain a useful part of this receiving corps, even with Diggs being added, though his target share will probably come down at least a little bit. Prior to joining the Texans, Schultz was franchise tagged by the Cowboys after a 2021 season in which he had a 78/808/8 slash line and a 1.47 yards per route run average, a big jump from a 63/615/4 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run average the previous year. His production fell to 57/577/5 and 1.38 yards per route run on the franchise tag in 2022, which led to him settling for a one-year deal in Houston, but a knee injury cost him two games during that 2022 season and he wasn’t really healthy until week 7, from which point he had 1.56 yards per route run and a 46/497/5 slash line in 11 games, a 71/768/8 pace over 17 games, so it’s not a surprise he was able to bounce back in a healthier season in 2023.

Schultz will probably continue being backed up by Brevin Jordan and Teagan Quitoriano, though the Texans also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Cade Stover, who will also compete for a role. Jordan, a 2021 5th round pick, impressed in limited action last season with a 1.59 yards per route run average, while holding up as a blocker and playing 283 snaps total. That was a big step up from his first two seasons in the league, when he averaged just 1.06 yards per route run, but getting a new quarterback definitely helped him and he seemed to take a step forward himself, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue being a useful #2 tight end. 

Quitoriano, meanwhile, was mostly used as a blocker last season and played just 158 snaps total. A 2022 5th round pick, his career 0.98 yards per route run average isn’t terrible, but it came in very limited action and he’s a pretty mediocre blocker, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the rookie Stover at least beat him out for the #3 tight end job. This is a deep tight end group in arguably the best overall receiving corps in the league, led by a talented trio of wide receivers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs and a solid pass catching tight end in Dalton Schultz.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Texans also acquired running back Joe Mixon in a trade with the Bengals this off-season, giving up a 7th round pick and re-signing Mixon to a new 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal. Unlike the Diggs trade, that move isn’t a good use of resources, even for a team with financial flexibility as a result of having a cheap quarterback. Mixon has been a feature back for the Bengals for most of his career, but he hasn’t been that effective in the past few seasons, averaging just 3.99 YPC on 1,156 carries since 2019, and now he heads into his age 28 season with 1,854 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to start declining. His new contract makes him the 6th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and he’s not worth that much. 

Mixon will replace Devin Singletary, who averaged 4.16 YPC with 4 touchdowns on 216 carries last season and a 30/193/0 slash line with 0.65 yards per route run as a pass catcher, before signing with the Giants on a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Mixon is a better pass catcher, with a career 1.21 yards per route run average and an average 50/375/2 slash line per 17 games in his career, but the Texans still would have been better off just re-signing Singletary to a cheaper deal. 

Dameon Pierce remains as the #2 back. A 4th round pick in 2022, Pierce showed promise as a rookie, rushing for 939 yards and 4 touchdowns on 220 carries (4.27 YPC) in 13 games on an otherwise mediocre offense, but he struggled in his second season in the league on a much better offense and lost his starting job to Devin Singletary, leading to him finishing the season with just 416 yards and 2 touchdowns on 145 carries (2.87 YPC) in 14 games. Pierce has bounce back potential in 2024, but he’ll be the clear #2 back to Mixon and he’ll probably be exclusively an early down back, having averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in his two seasons in the league. Neither he nor Mixon give me a lot of confidence that this will be an efficient running game.

The Texans’ depth is lacking behind Mixon and Pierce too. Dare Ogunbowale is currently penciled in as the #3 back, but he has just 136 carries in seven seasons in the league, with a 3.36 YPC average, and now heads into his age 30 season. He could be pushed for the #3 job and a roster spot by 6th round rookie Jahwar Jordan, who is also underwhelming depth, even if he has more upside than Ogunbowale. This is an underwhelming group overall, despite the move to acquire Mixon.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Texans’ biggest weakness on offense last season was their offensive line, which entered the season as a position of concern and only got worse from there as injuries struck. The Texans were expecting to start left tackle Laremy Tunsil, left guard Kenyon Green, center Juice Scruggs, right guard Shaq Mason, and right tackle Tytus Howard last season, but that didn’t go according to plan at all. Howard and Scruggs didn’t make a single start in their expected spot, missing 10 games each and only seeing action at left guard, where Green missed the whole season with injury. Tunsil also missed three games, leaving Mason as their only starter to make all 17 starts. 

At center, Jarrett Patterson (7 starts) and Michael Dieter (10 starts) both saw starts, Patterson first and then Dieter after Patterson suffered a season ending injury, and both were underwhelming, with PFF grades of 60.4 and 57.1 respectively. Howard and Scruggs struggled at left guard, with PFF grades of 46.8 and 51.5 respectively, as did Kendrick Green (3 starts) who had a 58.9 PFF grade before suffering an injury of his own. At tackle, George Fant (13 starts) was the primary starter on the right side and wasn’t bad (63.5 PFF grade), while Charlie Heck and Josh Jones struggled mightily in limited action as injury reserves behind Tunsil and Fant, finishing with PFF grades of 48.3 and 49.1 respectively. Tunsil and Mason at least were above average starters, with PFF grades of 73.4 and 66.5 respectively, but they couldn’t save a unit that finished below average on PFF both in pass blocking and run blocking grade.

They should be healthier this season and better by default, but there is still reason to be concerned for this offensive line, which is still unsettled in several spots. George Fant is gone and was replaced by second round pick Blake Fisher. Fisher could start at right tackle, in which case Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs would likely start at left guard and center respectively, with Kenyon Green and Jarrett Patterson on the bench. Tytus Howard could start at right tackle, in which case Fisher would be a reserve and then either Kenyon Green would start at left guard, or Juice Scruggs, with Jarrett Patterson at center. The Texans essentially have five offensive linemen competing for three starting spots and all have concerns.

Patterson is most likely of the five to be a reserve. He wasn’t bad in limited action last season, but he wasn’t good either and the 2023 6th round pick still profiles as a reserve long-term. Kenyon Green was a first round pick in 2022, but his career has gone about as disastrously as possible through two seasons, as he struggled mightily with a 37.7 PFF grade on 823 snaps as a rookie, before missing all of last season with injury, so he’s not guaranteed a starting role. Scruggs is probably a heavy favorite for a starting role somewhere, as the 2023 2nd round pick has the upside to be better in year two, especially if he’s healthier. 

Howard will also likely start somewhere, despite struggling last season. A 1st round pick in 2019, Howard has been inconsistent in his career, missing 22 games with injury and finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, but he’s been better at right tackle than guard, most recently receiving a career best 67.9 PFF grade in 2022. Because Howard’s best spot is at right tackle, the Texans’ best offensive line probably has him there with Green and Scruggs at left guard and center respectively, but that would leave the rookie Fisher on the bench in favor of Green, who has been a massive bust to this point in his career. Expect the Texans to try multiple offensive line combinations throughout the season.

Tunsil and Mason are locked into starting roles at left tackle and right guard respectively and are the bright spots on this offensive line, though it’s worth noting they’re heading into their age 30 season and age 31 seasons respectively and could be on the decline. Mason seems to have already started to decline, as the 2015 4th round pick finished above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons from 2016-2021, with five seasons over 80, before falling to 68.9 and 66.5 over the past two seasons. 

Mason could continue declining further and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and could remain at least a solid starter for another season. Tunsil, meanwhile, has shown no signs of decline thus far and, even if he starts to do so in 2024, he should remain an above average left tackle, having finished above 70 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, including a career best 80.0 as recently as 2022. That 2022 season was also the only one of Tunsil’s career in which he didn’t miss time with injury and he’s missed 23 games total in eight seasons in the league, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him miss at least a little bit more time in 2024.

Along with whichever two offensive linemen don’t win starting spots at left guard, center, and right tackle, the Texans also bring back Kendrick Green and Charlie Heck as reserves. Green was a 3rd round pick by the Steelers in 2021 and started 15 games at center as a rookie, but struggled with a 52.4 PFF grade and subsequently was a healthy inactive for all 17 games in 2022, before being traded to the Texans as part of final cuts last off-season. Green saw action at guard in Houston in 2023 and, though his struggles in that limited action make him not a legitimate starting candidate, his versatility probably will keep him on the roster as a reserve. 

Heck, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020 (21 starts), but, with his rookie deal expired, he was re-signed to a one-year deal that guarantees him 650K this off-season, so he’s probably locked into a roster spot. The Texans’ offensive line should be healthier and better than it was last year by default, but they still have a lot of concerns upfront and this will likely remain a below average unit. If there is any unit that keeps this offense and all of its weapons from their potential, it will be this one.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to getting much more help from his receiving corps than most expected going into last season, CJ Stroud was also supported by a defense that exceeded most’s expectations. One big reason for that was rookie Will Anderson, who the Texans selected 3rd overall one pick after Stroud, trading up a future first round pick to move up and select him. It was a risky move, given that their first round pick could have been a high pick if the Texans continued to struggle like they did in recent years, but Anderson’s performed at a high level for a team that surprisingly ended up with a pick in the 20s. 

Anderson finished his rookie season with a 81.8 PFF grade on 629 snaps, playing well against the run and as a pass rusher, totaling 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate. As Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Anderson was the Defensive Rookie of the Year, giving the Texans impressive young building blocks on both sides of the ball. Like with Stroud, development is not always linear and there’s a chance he’s not as good again in 2024 as he was as a rookie, but he also could take another step forward and, long-term, he seems likely to be one of the best defensive players in the league for years to come.

The Texans also got a breakout year from Jonathan Greenard, a 2020 3rd round pick who had flashed promise in the past, but had struggled with injuries and hadn’t put it all together until last season, when he had a 78.2 PFF grade on 632 snaps in 15 games, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate. Greenard wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Texans did spend big to replace him, signing ex-Viking Danielle Hunter to a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal. Hunter is older than Greenard, going into his age 30 season, and could start to decline soon, but he’s also much more consistently proven than Greenard and, even if he does decline a little bit in 2024, he should be more than an adequate replacement for Greenard.

A 3rd round pick in 2015, Hunter has exceeded 70 on PFF in seven straight healthy seasons, dating back to his second season in the league, including three seasons over 80, while playing 51.7 snaps per game in 105 games. In total, Hunter has 81.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate over those 105 games, including 16.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 2023, when he had a 78.0 PFF grade on a career high 1,004 snaps. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2024, he should remain at least an above average edge defender opposite Will Anderson, with Anderson and Hunter being one of the best edge defender duos in the league.

The Texans also opted not to bring back veteran Jerry Hughes, who had a 67.7 PFF grade on 474 snaps as a rotational player last season, playing at his best as a pass rusher with a 10.9% pressure rate, but who was also going into his age 36 season in 2024, which is why he wasn’t brought back. Instead, the Texans will give a bigger role to Derek Barnett, a mid-season acquisition who excelled after being cut mid-season by the Eagles, with a 90.5 PFF grade on 220 snaps in 6 games in Houston, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 2.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate.

Barnett had never played at close to that level before, never surpassing 70 on PFF for a season, with a career 10.0% pressure rate, so he’s highly unlikely to continue playing at the level he played at in a limited sample size down the stretch last season, but he is a former 2017 first round pick who is only going into his age 28 season, so the talent is there and it wouldn’t surprise me if he had the best full season of his career in 2024 in a rotational reserve role behind Anderson and Hunter. The Texans could also give a bigger reserve role to 2023 4th round pick Dylan Horton, though he was underwhelming with a 55.9 PFF grade on 175 snaps and a 5.2% pressure rate as a rookie. Still, he has the upside to at least be useful in a deep rotational reserve role, behind a talented trio of edge defenders. This is a strong position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Texans also signed a pair of hybrid players in Denico Autry and Mario Edwards who could also see action on the edge this season, but primarily they will play inside and replace free agent departures Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who had solid seasons in 2023 with PFF grades of 64.2 and 62.7 respectively on snap counts of 596 and 698 respectively. The Texans also added Folorunso Fatuaski and Tim Settle in free agency this off-season, making this an almost completely revamped position group. Kurt Hinish (465 snaps) and Khalil Davis (420 snaps) return from last season, but will probably both play smaller roles as deep reserves.

Autry is the most accomplished of the bunch, exceeding a 60 grade on PFF in seven straight seasons, including three seasons over 70 and a career best 82.8 on 531 snaps as recently as 2022, while averaging 648 snaps per season and 44.5 snaps per game over that stretch and totaling 53.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate. However, he’s now going into his age 34 season, so his best days are probably behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he dropped off significantly in 2024. 

Autry still had a 61.7 PFF grade on 767 snaps last season, with 11.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate as a pass rusher, but his run defense declined significantly to 52.0, his worst run defense score since 2016. With the Texans, he will probably mostly be a sub package pass rusher, to try to minimize that he’s not as good against the run and to keep him fresh as he ages. Edwards is a similar player, but he doesn’t play as much, with an average of 332 snaps per season over the past seven seasons, with a maximum of 475 snaps in a season. In 114 career games, he has 21.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate, while mostly being a mediocre run stuffer. Now in his age 30 season, he could decline a little in 2024, but he should remain at least a decent situational player. 

Settle also has played sparingly throughout his career, playing an average of 293 snaps per season in his career, with a maximum of 380, since going in the 5th round back in 2018. A mediocre run stopper, Settle is at his best as a pass rusher, but he’s only decent in that aspect, with a 7.0% pressure rate. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024 in a rotational role. Fatusaki is kind of the opposite of Autry and Edwards, a solid run stuffer with just a career 5.8% pressure rate, and he figures to play a significant base package role, similar to the 463 snaps per season he played over the past five seasons. Going into his age 29 season, he should remain similar to the player he has been throughout his career.

Of the two holdovers, Khalil Davis was the better of the two last season, with a 61.7 PFF grade, as opposed to 40.0 for Kurt Hinish. Davis was a 6th round pick in 2020, but had only played 43 snaps in three seasons in the league prior to last season, so his decent 2023 season kind of came out of nowhere. He probably won’t play as much in 2024, but he could still be a decent deep reserve. Hinish, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who also struggled with a 49.5 PFF grade on 435 snaps as a rookie, before struggling last season. He won’t be guaranteed a roster spot in a remade position group this off-season. This is an underwhelming group, but they have some solid role players and they’re deeper than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

One big loss on this defense this off-season is top linebacker Blake Cashman, who came out of nowhere to have a 83.7 PFF grade on 655 snaps in 13 games last season, exceeding expectations arguably more than any player on this whole roster, which is saying something considering how much of a surprise it was that this team had the success they did last season. Cashman was a total one-year wonder and likely would have regressed at least somewhat, but it’s a surprise that the Texans didn’t try to match or outbid the 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal the Vikings signed him to, instead signing Azeez Al-Shahir to an even bigger 3-year, 34 million dollar deal.

Mostly a situational player earlier in his career with the 49ers, Al-Shahir received grades of 61.0, 64.8, and 67.8 on snap counts of 305, 730, and 313 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, only seeing an expanded snap count in 2021 because of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he continued his solid play into an every down role with the Titans on a 1-year deal last season, receiving a 64.7 PFF grade on 1,101 snaps. I would expect that to continue now with the Texans, but he should still be an obvious downgrade on what Cashman gave them last season and it’s weird they paid him more than Cashman got.

Veteran run stuffer Denzel Perryman is also gone, after playing 571 snaps and receiving a 59.9 overall grade from PFF last season, with a 79.8 run defense grade and a 43.2 coverage grade. The rest of this group is basically the same as last year, with Christian Harris (755 snaps) and Henry To’oTo’o (435 snaps) likely to take on bigger roles in Perryman’s absence. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Harris struggled mightily as a rookie with a 28.3 PFF grade on 755 snaps, but he was a lot better in year two, even if being a lot better only meant that he was a capable starter, with a 60.0 PFF grade. Now going into year three, he could regress a little bit, but he could also continue being a capable starter or even take another step forward. 

To’oTo’o, meanwhile, was a 5th round rookie in 2023 and struggled mightily with a 41.7 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two, but he could easily continue struggling and is only locked into a role due to a lack of a better option, with their other options being career special teamer Del’Shawn Phillips (243 defensive snaps in five seasons in the league, veteran Neville Hewitt (26 defensive snaps in the past two seasons), 2022 undrafted free agent Jake Hansen (248 defensive snaps in two seasons in the league), and 6th round rookie Jamal Hill. With the loss of Blake Cashman and, to a lesser extent, Denzel Perryman this off-season, this is now a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Will Anderson, the Texans have another young building block on their defense in cornerback Derek Stingley. The 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Stingley’s career got off to a pretty bad start as he struggled through an injury plagued rookie season, finishing with a 49.1 PFF grade on 599 snaps in 9 games, but he took a big step forward in year two, a big part of the reason for the Texans’ defensive improvement in 2023. Injuries were still a problem for him, as he missed six games, but when he was on the field he showed why the Texans drafted him so high, finishing with a 81.8 PFF grade on the season.

Durability has been an issue for him dating back to his collegiate days and many considered him a reach at 3 because of that, especially with Sauce Gardner still on the board, but Stingley has always had a huge upside and when healthy he should remain one of the best young cornerbacks in the league, still only in his age 23 season. If he can ever consistently put his durability issues behind him, he has the upside to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The rest of this cornerback group is a concern though. Steven Nelson (71.9 PFF grade on 1,087 snaps), Tavierre Thomas (72.2 PFF grade on 352 snaps), Shaq Griffin (66.3 PFF grade on 382 snaps), and Grayland Arnold (71.4 PFF grade on 143 snaps) are all no longer on the roster after playing above average last season and in their place the Texans used a 2nd round pick on Kamari Lassiter and took fliers on former top-10 pick busts Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson, giving them a much shakier cornerback room than the year before.

Okudah was the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but struggled mightily with a 42.5 PFF grade on 460 snaps in 9 games in an injury plagued rookie season, before tearing his achilles and missing all but 48 snaps in 2021. Okudah returned in 2022, but was only better by default, with a 59.4 PFF grade on 789 snaps, leading to him being traded to the Falcons for a late round pick, where he wasn’t any better, with a 50.5 PFF grade on 596 snaps. Still only in his age 25 season, Okudah might still have untapped upside, but is running out of time to even develop into a decent starting caliber cornerback and durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 29 games total in four seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in every season.

Henderson, meanwhile, went 9th in the 2020 NFL Draft, but lasted just over a year with the Jaguars, posting a 57.9 PFF grade on 474 snaps as a rookie and being traded early in his second season in the league to the Panthers for just a mid-round pick. With the Panthers, things didn’t get better and his rookie season is actually the best season of his career thus far, as he finished the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons with PFF grades of 50.7, 52.9, and 45.4 on snap counts of 390, 765, and 407, while missing 18 games total in four seasons in the league. Now in his age 26 season, Henderson does still have some theoretical upside, but like Okudah he is running out of time to develop into even a decent starting caliber player.

Okudah and Henderson were signed to 1-year deals worth just 4.75 million and 2 million respectively, but will likely have to see significant playing time in a thin position group, competing with the rookie Lassiter and veteran slot cornerback Desmond King for playing time. King had a 71.3 PFF grade on 311 snaps in 7 games last season after rejoining the team mid-season, after playing just 1 snap in a disappointing half season with the Steelers. King was with the Texans in 2021 and 2022 and has finished above 70 on PFF in five of seven seasons in the league, including a 73.2 grade on 916 snaps in 2022, but he’s not a realistic candidate to start outside, as he’s primarily a slot cornerback/safety, and he now heads into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline in 2024. Still, he should at least be useful as a versatile reserve/sub package player.

At safety, the Texans return Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward as starters for the second year in a row. A second round pick in 2022, Pitre has been underwhelming through two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 57.1 and 61.6, but he’s made 32 starts already, he was a little better in year two than year one, and he has the upside to make his third season in the league his best yet. Ward, meanwhile, is going into his 11th season in the league and has been an above average starter for most of his career, including four straight seasons over 70 on PFF from 2019-2022, but durability has been a consistent problem for him, causing him to miss 47 games in 10 seasons in the league, with at least 5 games missed in six of those seasons. Now Ward heads into his age 33 season and seemed to start to decline in 2023, finishing with a 68.4 PFF grade on 506 snaps in 10 games in yet another injury plagued season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Ward continued declining in 2024 and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him and he will likely miss more time with injury. 

DeAndre Houston-Carson struggled as the third safety and an injury fill-in when Ward was out last season, receiving a 57.2 PFF grade on 475 snaps. He wasn’t brought back this off-season, but the Texans don’t really have a better option. Veteran reserves MJ Stewart and Eric Murray remain, but Stewart hasn’t played more than 328 snaps in a season in six seasons in the league, while Murray has played just 294 snaps over the past two seasons combined, after posting grades of 53.9 and 50.9 on 941 snaps and 759 snaps respectively in 2020 and 2021, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season. The Texans used a 3rd round pick on safety Calen Bullock, who could be a future replacement for Jimmie Ward, but he also could struggle if forced into a significant role as a rookie. With less depth at cornerback and Jimmie Ward another year older, the Texans’ secondary probably won’t be as good as it was a year ago, but they’re not a bad group.

Grade: B

Conclusion

With a highly talented young quarterback on a cheap rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud, the Texans were aggressive this off-season in adding to this roster, to try to go all in and maximize their window of opportunity. However, their most notable move, the trade for Stefon Diggs, looks like an overrated move and this team still has significant concerns with their running game, offensive line, and defense, particularly in the secondary and in the linebacking corps. This should still be a playoff team in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect them to make the leap to a true Super Bowl contender like many are expecting from this team.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in AFC South

Tennessee Titans 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Quarterback

As recently as 2021, the Titans finished the season with a 12-5 record and the #1 seed in the AFC, but they were not nearly as good as their record, finishing 20th in DVOA, so it wasn’t too surprising that they fell to 7-10 in 2022 and 6-11 in 2023, especially given some of the key players they lost over those two off-seasons. Now going into 2024, the Titans are going in a different direction. Defensive minded Head Coach Mike Vrabel was fired this off-season and replaced with a young offensive mind in Brian Callahan, while 2023 2nd round pick Will Levis is officially the full-time starting quarterback with veteran Ryan Tannehill gone, after Levis made 9 starts down the stretch last season when Tannehill got injured and then subsequently benched. 

The Titans aren’t completely rebuilding, spending significant amounts of money this off-season to build around their young quarterback, which I will get more into later, but if this team is going to improve significantly from a year ago, they will need better play out of Levis, who was PFF’s 32nd ranked quarterback out of 45 eligible last season with a 63.7 overall grade, while completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

With Tannehill gone, the Titans signed veteran Mason Rudolph to backup Levis. He’s not a bad backup, but he’s also not a realistic starting option if Levis doesn’t progress. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Rudolph struggled in the only extended starting experience of his career in 2019, completing 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.24 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and, while he has been better since then, it has come in such a small sample size, as he has started just 5 games in four seasons since, completing 65.7% of his passes for an average of 7.54 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

The Titans also still have 2022 3rd round pick Malik Willis, who at one time seemed like a potential long-term replacement for Tannehill, but has failed to progress as a passer, completing 53.0% of his passes for an average of 5.30 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 66 career pass attempts. He is a great athlete who has added 144 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries (4.50 YPC) and, only in his age 25 season, he still could have untapped potential, but he will be no better than the third quarterback going into 2024, which means he isn’t necessarily guaranteed a roster spot. Overall, this is one of the most underwhelming quarterback rooms in the league, barring a big step forward from Will Levis in year two.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

In addition to parting ways with Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill this off-season, the Titans also let running back Derrick Henry, their long-time face of the franchise, walk in free agency this off-season. It wasn’t a financial decision, as Henry signed a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal with the Ravens, while the Titans spent similarly to add his replacement Tony Pollard on a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal, making him the 9th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary. Instead, it was a move that signals a change in philosophy, moving from an older, bigger back (6-3 245) to a younger, smaller (6-0 215) speedier back who can help in the passing game.

Even with Henry approaching 30 years old in 2023, he still rushed for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.17 YPC), down significantly from his prime, but still a lot to replace, especially since Henry ranked 3rd among running backs with a 90.1 overall PFF grade had a 3.32 yards per carry average after contact (12th among running backs) behind an offensive line that struggled in run blocking. Pollard, a 4th round pick in 2019 who is only in his age 27 season, averaged 5.13 YPC in his first four seasons in the league combined, but he never had more than 193 carries in a season in those four years and he couldn’t maintain that efficiency in a larger role in 2023, averaging 3.99 YPC on 252 carries. 

That might be partially due to Pollard coming off of a broken leg suffered late in 2022 and not being 100% for much of the 2023 season as a result, so he has bounce back potential in 2024, but he probably will see a smaller role than he did in 2023, and, even if he doesn’t, he’s unlikely to see as many touches as Henry did a year ago. He’ll also be running behind a worse offensive line than he had in Dallas, which could easily have a big effect on his efficiency. 

Pollard having fewer touches than Henry did a year ago likely means a bigger role for second year back Tyjae Spears, a 5-10 200 back who is also very different from Henry. A 3rd round pick in 2023, Spears flashed potential with a 4.53 YPC average across 100 carries as a rookie, albiet against defenses that were mostly expecting the pass, and could be ready for a bigger role in year two. Both Pollard and Spears will probably be used more in the passing game than Henry, who had just a 28/214/0 slash line last season. 

Pollard has 133 catches in the past three seasons while averaging 1.21 yards per route run for his career, while Spears had a 52/385/1 slash line as a rookie with a 1.27 yards per route run average. This is a completely reinvented backfield with Pollard replacing Henry and Spears likely having a bigger role, but they won’t necessarily be better than a year ago and both backs could struggle in terms of YPC if their offensive line doesn’t significantly improve in run blocking from a year ago.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

In addition to struggling in run blocking, the Titans’ offensive line also struggled in pass protection last season. This off-season, they lost center Aaron Brewer, who was the best of the bunch with a 71.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, but they replaced him with Lloyd Cushenberry on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal, which could be a lateral move, and they also upgraded the left tackle spot, letting Andre Dillard and his 51.0 PFF grade leave in free agency and then replacing him with 7th overall pick JC Latham, who figures to start day 1 and be a significant upgrade even as a rookie.

Latham is the second straight high draft pick the Titans have used trying to rebuild this offensive line, using the 11th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Peter Skoronski, who had a 61.6 PFF grade in 14 rookie year starts at left guard and could easily take a step forward in year two in 2024. The Titans also have 2021 2nd round pick Dillon Radunz, who struggled in limited action (404 snaps total) in his first two seasons in the league, but took a big step forward in 2023, finishing with a 67.2 PFF grade in 11 starts. He figures to be locked into the starting job at right tackle and, while he could regress, there’s a good chance he remains at least a capable starter.

Cushenberry is now the 4th highest paid center in the league on his new contract. If he plays as well as he did a year ago, when he was PFF’s 10th ranked center with a 73.2 grade, he should be worth that deal and an adequate replacement for Brewer, who was 11th among centers last season on PFF, but Cushenberry is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, finishing below 60 on PFF in two of his three seasons in the league prior to last season, with his previous career best being 64.2 in 2021. It’s possible the 2020 3rd round pick who is now in his age 27 season has permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at the same level, but he could also regress at least a little bit.

Fellow veteran Daniel Brunskill completes this offensive line at right guard, going into his second season with the Titans after signing a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Previously with the 49ers, where he received grades of 73.0, 61.7, 61.4, and 69.0 while making 42 starts in four seasons from 2019-2022, Brunskill received a 67.1 PFF grade in 14 starts in his first season in Tennessee in 2023. Age is becoming a concern, now in his age 30 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline and he could easily continue being at least a solid starter in 2024.

Depth is a concern for this group. Tackle Jaelyn Duncan, guard Andrew Rupcich, and tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere are the only reserves who saw significant action last season who are returning for this season and all three struggled with PFF grades of 32.9, 58.4, and 35.5. Duncan was a rookie and could be better in year two, but he was also only a 6th round pick and might not develop into even a decent reserve. Rupcich wasn’t terrible last season, but the 2022 undrafted free agent doesn’t have a high upside either and would be a very underwhelming starting option if forced into significant action by injury. 

Petit-Frere was at least somewhat highly drafted, taken in the 3rd round in 2022, but he struggled as a starter in 2022 (52.3 PFF grade in 16 starts) before struggling even more as a reserve in 2023, so his career is not off to a good start. The Titans did sign Saahdiq Charles from the Commanders in free agency this off-season, but the 2020 4th round pick was mediocre in 18 starts in four seasons in Washington, including a 55.5 PFF grade on 10 snaps in 2023. It’s very possible that all of these reserves would struggle if forced into significant action. Their starting five offensive linemen aren’t bad and, with JC Latham being added in the draft, they should be better than a year ago, but they also don’t have a great starting five and their depth is a big concern because injuries will almost definitely happen at some point.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The Titans also spent big to sign wide receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency, giving him a 4-year, 92 million dollar deal that makes him the 10th highest paid wide receiver in the league in terms of average annual salary. He will play opposite DeAndre Hopkins, their big wide receiver free agent signing from a year ago, joining the team on a 2-year, 26 million dollar deal. The Titans also signed another veteran Tyler Boyd this off-season to be the slot receiver between Hopkins and Ridley, signing him to a 1-year, 2.4 million dollar deal. 

Hopkins did well as the #1 receiver in 2023 in his first season in Tennessee, finishing with a 75/1057/7 slash line on 137 targets with a 2.09 yards per route run average, despite the Titans’ shaky quarterback play. Hopkins is now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, as his 2023 production was in line with his career production, as he had averaged 2.14 yards per route run in his previous nine seasons combined before 2023. There’s a good chance he starts to decline in 2024 though. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. That being said, barring a massive dropoff, Hopkins should continue being at least a solid #1 option.

The addition of Ridley should take some of the pressure off of Hopkins, as their top-3 wide receivers in 2023 after Hopkins were Chris Moore, with a 22/424/0 slash line and a 1.39 yards per route run average, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, with a 28/370/3 slash line and a 1.13 yards per route run average, and Treylon Burks, with a 16/221/0 slash line and a 0.83 yards per route run average. Ridley had a 76/1016/8 slash line with a 1.57 yards per route run average in 2023. His best year came in 2020, when he had a 90/1374/9 slash line and a 2.44 yards per route run average, but he benefited significantly from having Julio Jones opposite that season and then was limited to a 1.43 yards per route run average in 2021, before missing all of 2022 with a gambling suspension, and then not being as good as 2020 upon his return in 2023. Now going into his age 30 season in 2024, Ridley’s best days are probably behind him, but he should still be a good #2 opposite Hopkins.

Tyler Boyd’s best days are also probably behind him, also going into his age 30 season, but he should still at least be a solid #3 receiver on the slot, with the potential to be more if he can bounce back a little from a down 2023 season. Boyd had a 67/667/2 slash line with a 1.15 yards per route run average in 2023, both his lowest since 2017, as he had averaged 901 yards per season and 1.71 yards per route run in his previous five seasons prior to 2023. He’s not totally over the hill yet and could bounce back a little bit, but his best days are probably behind him.

The additions of Hopkins and Boyd push Treylon Burks at least into the #4 wide receiver role, despite being just two years removed from being a first round pick. Burks showed potential as a rookie in limited action, with a 1.75 yards per route run average, but he missed six games with injury and then missed another six games with injury in 2023 and was not nearly as good when on the field. He still has upside, but probably won’t get enough playing time to show it and could easily continue being inconsistent and injury prone. Westbrook-Ikhine also remains, but he won’t have a big role either, which is fitting for a player with a career 1.11 yards per route run and a career high of 476 yards in a season in four seasons in the league.

With the Titans lacking wide receiver depth last season, tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo was second on the team in targets (77), catches (54), and yardage (528), but I would expect his role to be scaled back slightly in 2024, given the wide receiver talent the Titans added in free agency. A 4th round pick in 2022, Okonkwo flashed a lot of potential as a rookie with a 32/450/3 slash line and a 2.61 yards per route run average, but he couldn’t translate that efficiency into a bigger role in 2023, with a 1.31 yards per route run average. Now going into his third season in the league, Okonkwo could be more efficient in 2024, but he’ll also probably have a smaller role.

Okonkwo was backed up by Trevon Wesco (423 snaps) last season, who was a decent blocker, but caught just one pass all season. Wesco is gone now, leaving either 2023 6th round pick Josh Whyle, who flashed some potential on 157 snaps as a rookie, or veteran free agent acquisition Nick Vannett, who has played just 562 snaps with a 0.93 yards per route run average over the past three seasons combined and now heads into his age 31 season. Whyle is probably the favorite for the #2 job, but he’s still pretty unproven, so their depth behind Okonkwo is questionable. This is a better receiving corps than a year ago, with Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd being added, but both are going into their age 30 season with their best days are probably behind them and it’s unclear if young quarterback Will Levis can make full use out of this group.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Comparably, the Titans’ defense was their better side of the ball in 2023, ranking 18th in defensive DVOA, as opposed to 25th in offensive DVOA. Their defense could miss former head coach Mike Vrabel, but talent wise they are probably better than a year ago. Their biggest loss this offseason is Denico Autry, a hybrid edge defender/interior defender who led the team with 11.5 sacks, while adding 5 sacks and a 10.6% pressure rate. Autry wasn’t nearly as good against the run and is now heading into his age 34 season, but he will be missed, especially since the Titans didn’t really do anything to replace him.

At least Harold Landry (840 snaps) and Arden Key (727 snaps) do return after playing big snap counts on the edge in 2023. Landry was second on the team with 10.5 sacks, also adding 10 hits and a 10.8% pressure rate, while finishing with a 64.6 PFF grade, in his first season back from missing all of 2022 with injury. Prior to his injury, Landry had similar seasons, receiving grades of 68.6, 64.0, and 63.0 from PFF on snap counts of 953, 1,050, and 981 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively, while totaling 26.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, solid play on high snap counts, possibly an even higher snap count given that Autry is gone and Landry is now another year removed from his injury.

Key, meanwhile, played a career high in snaps in 2023 and was not nearly as efficient as he was on snap counts of 375 and 475 in 2021 and 2022, when he totaled 13.7% pressure rate, as opposed to 6 sacks, 5 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 2023. With Autry gone, Key won’t have a choice but to continue playing a heavy snap count and he could continue struggling in that role. The Titans will also have to give a bigger snap count to Rashad Weaver, who played just 240 snaps in a reduced role in 2023, after playing 640 snaps in 2022. 

A 4th round pick in 2021, Weaver has just a 7.5% pressure rate for his career and, already in his age 27 season, it’s unlikely he has much untapped upside, so he should continue struggling in 2023, this time in a much bigger role. The rest of this position group consists of 2023 undrafted free agent Caleb Murphy (4 snaps as a rookie), 2023 undrafted free agent Thomas Rush (no snaps as a rookie), and 7th round rookie Jaylen Harrell, so this is a very thin group with Autry leaving and not being replaced. Outside of Harold Landry, who is more of a snap eater than an impact player, none of these players can be trusted to consistently play a big role.

Grade: C+

Interior Defenders

The Titans also didn’t bring back several interior defenders, but Teair Tart (350 snaps), Kyle Peko (342 snaps), Jaleel Johnson (270 snaps), and Naquan Jones (104 snaps) all struggled last season, with PFF grades of 57.1, 38.6, 54.0, and 45.9 respectively, so they won’t be missed, especially since the Titans probably upgraded with second round rookie T’Vondre Sweat and veteran free agent acquisition Sebastian Joseph-Day. 

The rookie Sweat could have some growing pains as a rookie, but the 6-4 366 pounder should be a big run stuffing nose tackle for them, while the 6-4 310 pound Joseph-Day is more well-rounded, showing decent run stopping ability in his career and totaling 11 sacks, 19 hits, and a 6.0% pressure rate in 71 career games, while playing snap counts of 702 and 604 over the past two seasons. He should continue playing a big role with his new team, but he’s more of a snap eater than an impact player.

Jeffery Simmons will continue being the Titans’ top interior defender, playing in base packages with Sweat and Joseph-Day and staying on the field in sub packages, where he’s a dominant interior pass rusher, with 26.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 68 career games, including 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 12 games in 2023. Simmons was not as good against the run in 2023 as he normally is, but prior to last season he was always an above average run stopper too, leading to him having four straight seasons over 70 on PFF, including two seasons over 80, before falling to 68.4 in overall grade in 2023 because of his issues against the run. 

A first round pick in 2019, Simmons fell to the Titans at 19 because he tore his ACL in the pre-draft process, as he could have been a top-10 or even top-5 pick if that had not happened. He was limited to 315 snaps in 9 games as a rookie because of his injury, but flashed his potential immediately and has missed just eight games in four seasons since, with five of those coming last season. Prior to last season, he had played snap counts of 841, 933, and 840 in the previous three seasons, only falling to 657 in 2023 because of the missed time due to injury. Still only in his age 27 season, Simmons is still in the prime of his career and has a good chance to bounce back as a run stuffer, while continuing being a dominant interior pass rusher. There’s also a good chance he stays healthier than he did last season.

Depth behind their top-3 interior defenders is a bit of an issue for the Titans, with Marlon Davidson and Keondre Coburn likely to be their top reserves, even though they were both added mid-season last season. Coburn was a 6th round pick by the Chiefs in 2023 and bounced around from the Chiefs to the Broncos before joining the Titans and receiving a 66.6 PFF grade across 98 snaps in 4 games down the stretch last season. Davidson, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick by the Falcons in 2020, but struggled across just 402 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, before missing all of 2022 with injury, winding up on the 49ers practice squad to start 2023, and then receiving a 59.2 PFF grade across 163 snaps in 5 games down the stretch for the Titans. Both are underwhelming reserve options, but the Titans at least have a solid top-3, led by Jeffery Simmons and, overall, this group should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Titans also lost top linebacker Azeez Al-Shahir in free agency, after he received a solid 64.7 grade from PFF in 2023 across 1,101 snaps. The Titans replaced him by signing Kenneth Murray, a former first round pick bust for the Chargers, to a 2-year, 15.5 million dollar deal, which should be a downgrade. Selected 23rd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, Murray has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, playing an average of 51.0 snaps per game in 59 games. Still only in his age 26 season, he could still have some untapped potential, but it’s more likely that he’ll be a noticeable downgrade from Al-Shahir. 

Jack Gibbens returns as the other starting linebacker. He had a solid 71.8 PFF grade in 2023, but he’s only a base package player, playing just 628 snaps and struggling in coverage in the rare occasions he played in sub packages. He’s also a 2022 undrafted free agent who is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023, playing 214 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and he could easily regress, given that he was not highly drafted. The Titans did add Cedric Gray in the 4th round of the draft and he probably will play at least a little bit of a rookie year role, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t make a significant positive impact as a rookie. With Murray likely to be a downgrade from Al-Shahir and Gibbens a candidate to regress, the arrow is pointing down with this group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Titans front seven has a lot of issues and could take a step back from a year ago, but this defense is still probably more talented overall than a year ago because of the big additions the Titans made in the secondary this off-season. Cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting (57.6 PFF grade on 840 snaps) and Kristian Fulton (46.4 PFF grade on 644 snaps) left as free agents this off-season and were replaced by L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, who didn’t come cheap, but should be obvious upgrades.

Sneed came over from the Kansas City Chiefs, who franchised tagged him and traded him for a 2025 3rd round pick to the Titans, who subsequently gave him a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar extension that makes him the 6th highest paid cornerback in the league in average annual salary. A 4th round pick in 2020, Snead flashed potential with a 72.9 PFF grade on 410 snaps as a rookie and then became a starter in year two, taking a year to adjust to the new role (64.1 PFF grade in 15 starts in 2021), but posting PFF grades of 76.1 and 71.1 over the past two seasons, while making a combined 33 starts. Still only in his age 27 season, he should remain at least an above average starter for at least a couple more years.

Awuzie, meanwhile, signed with the Titans on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal, after spending the previous three seasons with the Bengals and his first four seasons in the league prior to that with the Cowboys. Awuzie flashed potential early in his career in Dallas, receiving a 78.4 PFF grade in a limited role (309 snaps) as a second round rookie in 2017, regressing in a bigger role in 2018 with 64.8 grade on 886 snaps, and then holding up as a full season starter with a 72.2 PFF grade on 1,020 snaps in 2019, but he struggled through an injury plagued contract year in Dallas, missing 8 games and finishing with just a 52.0 PFF grade on 452 snaps, leading to him having to settle for a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal with the Bengals in free agency.

Awuzie bounced back in a big way with a career best 83.3 PFF grade in 14 starts (777 snaps) in his first season in Cincinnati in 2021 and was off to a solid 2022 campaign with a 69.9 PFF grade through 8 starts (471 snaps), but he suffered a torn ACL that ended his season and he did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2023, finishing with a 62.6 PFF grade and getting benched mid-season, starting just 10 of the 15 games he played, with 722 snaps played total. Durability has been a concern for much of his career, missing time in all but one for his seven seasons in the league, but he’s not totally over the hill yet in his age 29 season and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2024, another year removed from his ACL tear. He has a good chance to at least be a solid starter, with the upside for more.

Sneed and Awuzie will form a talented trio with top holdover Roger McCreary, a 2022 2nd round pick who was solid as a rookie with a 62.6 PFF grade on 1,164 snaps and then took a step forward in year two in 2023 with a 71.3 PFF grade on 934 snaps. Still only in his age 24 season with a high upside, McCreary has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter in 2024 and could easily take a step forward and make 2024 his best season yet. He and Sneed are probably the Titans best two cornerbacks and will be the nominal starters, but Awuzie figures to have a big role in sub packages as the 3rd cornerback as well, as part of a talented trio of cornerbacks.

The Titans also bring back Caleb Farley, Tre Avery, and Eric Garror as reserves. Farley was a first round pick in 2021, but injuries and poor play have led to him playing just 164 snaps in three seasons in the league, with none of those coming in 2023. Farley still has theoretical upside, but is already going into his age 26 season and has injury issues dating back to his collegiate days, so it’s very probable he never comes close to developing into what the Titans expected when they selected him in the first round. In his only two seasons of action, Farley had very disappointing PFF grades of 45.7 and 42.5 respectively on snap counts of 60 and 104 respectively.

Avery and Garror, meanwhile, are recent undrafted free agents, Avery in 2022 and Garror in 2023, but both played more just last season than Farley has in his entire career, with snap counts of 360 and 350 respectively. Both struggled through, with PFF grades of 44.2 and 59.7 respectively. Avery was better as a rookie, with a 63.7 PFF grade on 289 snaps, but that was in a limited sample size and he could continue struggling as a reserve in 2024. Unless Farley takes a big step forward in year four and stays healthy, the Titans’ depth behind their top-3 cornerbacks should be suspect.

At safety, Amani Hooker and Elijah Molden remain and will start. Hooker was a 4th round pick in 2019 and showed potential with PFF grades of 66.0 and 66.5 respectively on snap counts of 335 and 470 respectively in the first two seasons of his career, before breaking out with a 83.3 PFF grade as a starter in 2021. However, Hooker hasn’t been able to repeat that season since and it looks like a fluke, with Hooker receiving PFF grades of 63.3 and 67.5 respectively over the past two seasons, while consistently having issues with durability. Hooker also missed significant time with injury in his dominant 2021 season and, in total, has missed 17 games over the past three seasons. He’s only in his age 26 season and has some bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, but I wouldn’t expect him to bounce back all the way to his 2021 form and he’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point.

Molden, meanwhile, began last season as a reserve, but took over as the starter after veteran Kevin Byard (67.3 PFF grade on 389 snaps) was traded to the Eagles. In his first extended starting experience and a career high 700 snaps, Molden struggled with a 55.9 PFF grade. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Molden was decent as a rookie with a 64.1 PFF grade on 632 snaps as a reserve hybrid safety/slot cornerback, before missing almost all of the 2022 season due to injury (82 snaps), and struggling in 2023. 

Molden is still only in his age 25 season and could have some untapped potential, but he’s an underwhelming starting option going into his first full season as an every down starter. The Titans don’t have another choice though, with all of their reserves being recent undrafted free agents with minimal experience, which will also be a concern if and when Amani Hooker misses more time with injury. K’Von Wallace (75.9 PFF grade on 414 snaps) did very well as the third safety last season, but wasn’t retained this off-season. The Titans significantly upgraded their cornerback room this off-season and have one of the better cornerbacks trios in the league, but their safeties are shakier and their depth at both spots is questionable at best.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Titans added some talent on both sides of the ball this off-season, but they still look like they’re a long way away from competing even for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC, unless they get an unexpected breakout season from second year quarterback Will Levis. In fact, from a talent standpoint, this looks like one of the worst rosters in the AFC, even after some of their off-season moves, especially on defense, where they figure to miss Mike Vrabel’s leadership.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

The Colts surprisingly contended for a playoff spot in 2023, finishing 9-8 and ranking 20th in DVOA, a year after finishing 4-12-1 and dead last in the NFL in DVOA. Their offense was the biggest reason for their turnaround, as their defense actually fell from 13th in DVOA to 20th, while their offense went from dead last to 13th. The quarterback position was a huge problem for the Colts in 2022, ranking 29th in team QB rating at 79.2, leading to the Colts selecting quarterback Anthony Richardon with the 4th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but their turnaround last season was not as a result of Richardson.

In fact, Richardson was mediocre in just four starts before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Considered a raw prospect as a passer coming into the league, Richardson showed it in his limited action, with 59.5% completion, 6.87 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, though he did also show his athleticism as a runner, rushing for 126 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries (5.44 YPC). In Richardson’s absence, veteran Gardner Minshew was the starter and he provided some stability at the position, but ultimately was underwhelming and, to the extent he deserves credit for the Colts being better offensively last season, it’s only because he was better by default than what the Colts had at the position in 2022.

Minshew’s stats don’t look bad, as he completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but they’re not great either and he finished the season just 34th among 45 eligible quarterbacks on PFF with a 62.0 grade. Minshew wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by another veteran Joe Flacco. Flacco was better in 2023 than Minshew was, completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while receiving a 74.2 PFF grade, but that came in just 5 starts after being signed by the Browns mid-season. It was also his best PFF grade since 2014 and came after a 8-year stretch from 2015-2022 in which he completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 6.35 YPA, 84 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions. Now going into his age 39 season, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2024 if forced into action as he was in a small sample size in 2023.

The Colts will be hoping Flacco doesn’t have to see significant action and remains nothing more than an insurance option, with Richardson set to take back his starting job, now healthy going into his second season in the league. It’s tough to know what to expect from Richardson in 2024, given how raw he was entering the league and how little he played as a rookie. He has a huge upside, but also a huge potential downside, giving the Colts one of the biggest ranges of potential outcomes at the quarterback position of any team in the league. 

Richardson’s playing style also exposes him to more injury risk than most quarterbacks, so there’s a better than average chance that he misses more time. Because of all of that, the Colts are one of the most difficult teams in the league to predict in 2024. If Richardson can play up to his potential and stay healthy, this team has enough talent on both sides of the ball to be contenders, but it’s also possible that he’s a downgrade from Minshew and the Colts, who already weren’t quite as good as their record suggested last season, regress in terms of win total as a result. I’m going to grade the Colts’ quarterback room based on an average of the best case and worst case scenario, but the range of outcomes is huge here.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Regardless of how he plays, expect this offense to look different in 2024 than it did in 2023, when the Colts had a balanced approach with 574 passing attempts (18th in the NFL) and 479 rushing attempts (11th in the NFL). With Richardson taking off and running often, I would expect the Colts to be close to the top of the league in rushing attempts and close to the bottom of the league in pass attempts. That should overall have a negative effect on the production of this group of receivers.

Kept this off-season on a 3-year, 70 million dollar extension after being franchise tagged, Michael Pittman should remain the #1 option, as he has been for the past few years, leading the team in receiving in three straight years with slash lines of 88/1082/6, 99/925/4, and 109/1152/4, dating back to the 2020 2nd round pick’s second season in the league in 2021. Over that stretch, Pittman has averaged 1.79 yards per route run, despite less than stellar quarterback play. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect a similar average per route this season, possibly a little higher or a little lower depending on how Richardson turns out to be, but his overall receiving total will probably go down as the number of routes he runs likely decreases, barring a massive breakout as a passer by Richardson.

Josh Downs, a 2023 3rd round pick, finished second on this team in receiving yardage with a 68/771/2 slash line last season, despite playing significantly fewer snaps (1,090 vs. 788) and running significantly fewer routes (605 vs. 483) than Alec Pierce, who only totalled a 32/514/2 slash line, averaging just 0.85 yards per route run, as opposed to 1.60 for Downs. Now going into his second season in the league, I would expect Downs to take on a bigger role at Pierce’s expense, which could lead to Downs’ receiving yardage total increasing, even on a more run heavy offense.

Pierce, meanwhile, still has upside as a 2022 2nd round pick, but his career has not gotten off to a good start with a 1.02 yards per route run average. In addition to Downs likely seeing a bigger role in 2024, the Colts also used 2nd and 5th round picks in this year’s draft on Adonai Mitchell and Anthony Gould and especially Mitchell could eat into Pierce’s playing time even further. Likely to see a smaller target share on a more run heavy offense, Pierce could see a significant decrease in his receiving yardage total in 2024, even if he himself happens to take a step forward as a player. 

The Colts are not nearly as deep at the tight end position and, with a lot of promising young talent at the wide receiver position on an offense that will probably be more run heavy this season, expect the tight end position to not be a big part of this offense in 2024, probably even less so than 2023, when Colts tight ends saw just 119 of 546 targets go their way (21.8% target share), with none receiving more than 50. Those targets were split among four tight ends that all saw playing time, which doesn’t include Jelani Woods, a 2022 3rd round pick who flashed potential with a 25/312/3 slash line and a 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie, before missing all of 2023 with injury. 

In Woods’ absence, playing time went to Kylen Granson (496 snaps), Mo Alie-Cox (434 snaps), Andrew Ogletree (336 snaps), and Will Mallory (159 snaps), who all return in 2024 to compete for playing time with the now healthy Jelani Woods, who should at least be involved in the passing game, though he was mediocre as a blocker as a rookie. Mallory having the least playing time last season might make it seem like he’ll be the odd man out in the likely scenario that only four tight ends make the Colts’ final roster, but the 2023 5th round pick was actually the most efficient of the bunch in 2023 in a limited sample size, averaging 1.62 yards per route run while holding up decently as a blocker, so the Colts might want to keep the young tight end on their roster for another year to see how he develops.

Drew Ogletree (2022 6th round pick) and Kylen Granson (2021 4th round pick) are also both young players. Granson turned his position leading 50 targets into a 30/368/1 slash line and a decent 1.27 yards per route run average last season, in line with his career 1.26 yards per route run average. He probably will see fewer targets this season and he’s consistently struggled as a blocker in his career, but would seem to have a good shot to at least make the roster, if not see a significant snap total again. Ogletree, meanwhile, is much more likely to be the odd man out, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run last season, after not playing a snap as a rookie, and then getting into some trouble off the field this off-season. He was decent as a blocker last season, but that might not be enough to save his roster spot.

Mo Alie-Cox is the veteran of the bunch, going into his 8th season in the league and his age 31 season. He’s the best blocker of the bunch, which is useful given the type of offense this figures to be in 2024, but he’s averaged just 0.98 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined and his age is becoming a concern. The Colts can also save 5.92 million by cutting him this off-season, much more than they would save by cutting any of their other tight ends, so it’s possible the Colts move on and go with a complete youth movement at the tight end position. This is a very young receiving corps overall, but they at least have a lot of upside.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line was a big improvement from 2022 to 2023, ranking 23rd on PFF in pass blocking grade and 13th in run blocking grade in 2022, before ranking 6th in both pass blocking and run blocking grade in 2023, despite the fact that the personnel didn’t really change. The personnel remains largely the same in 2024 and their results figure to be closer to 2023 than 2022. Second year left tackle Bernhard Raimann was good as a rookie in 2022, but he was even better in 2023, finishing with a 82.7 PFF grade. Raimann was an old rookie and is already going into his age 27 season, which is why he fell to the third round, but he’s still in the prime of his career and should continue playing at a high level in 2024, even if it’s possible he might not be quite as good as he was a year ago. 

Center Ryan Kelly was also much better in 2023 than he was in 2022, jumping from a 64.3 PFF grade to a 77.2 PFF grade. In fact, his 2023 campaign was his highest PFF grade of his career, despite the fact that it was his 8th season in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, Kelly could start to decline soon and, even if he doesn’t drop off significantly, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again. He’s mostly been a solid starter in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven seasons and surpassing 70 in four seasons, but I wouldn’t expect him to continue playing at the level he played at in 2023.

Right tackle Braden Smith also had a career best PFF grade in 2023 with 83.3, but he also missed seven games with injury and he’s been close to that good in the past, exceeding 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Smith should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and, even if he isn’t as good as he was in 2023, he should more than make up for that by playing more games, which would be a big boost because his backup Blake Freeland had a 44.2 PFF grade across 701 snaps (nine starts, with two of those coming at left tackle when Raimann missed time). Aside from last season, Smith has only missed 10 games in his career, so he’s not that injury prone. 

The Colts also got better play at right guard. Not only did Will Fries improve slightly from a 58.4 PFF grade in 2022 to a 61.2 PFF grade in 2023, he also made more starts (17 vs. 9), which was a big boost because the Colts’ other starting right guards struggled mightily in 2022. Fries was only a 7th round pick in 2021 and has only been a marginal starter for one season, but he wasn’t that much worse in 2022 and has a good chance to continue being a marginal starter in 2024, only his age 26 season.

Left guard Quenton Nelson also was better in 2023 than 2022, improving from a 68.4 PFF grade to a 70.8 PFF grade, but that’s still a far cry from the player he was earlier in his career. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, receiving PFF grades of 79.7, 91.2, and 86.2 in his first three seasons in the league, but he missed four games with injury in his 4th season in the league in 2021 and hasn’t been the same player since then, with last year being his best season since his first three seasons. He’s still only in his age 28 season and could have some bounce back potential, but it’s also very possible his best days are already  behind him.

Depth was a big issue for this group a year ago, with their top reserve tackle Blake Freeland and their top reserve interior offensive lineman Wesley French (48.4 PFF grade on 270 snaps) both struggling mightily. To try to improve this, the Colts used a 3rd round pick on tackle Matt Goncalves and a 4th round pick on guard Tanor Bortolini. Freeland and French still remain, but there is a chance that the rookies beat them out for the top reserve jobs, particularly Goncalves as the swing tackle. 

Freeland is also a 2023 4th round pick who could have some untapped upside and be better in year two, though French is only a 2022 undrafted free agent who could easily never develop into even a decent backup. Relying on rookies and unproven players, the Colts’ depth is a concern on the offensive line, but they at least have a solid starting five, with only center Ryan Kelly likely to regress significantly from last season’s performance.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Colts’ running game was effective in 2023, even without Anthony Richardson for most of the season, as they finished 10th in team yards per carry with 4.30. The Colts’ offensive line had a lot to do with that, but their running backs weren’t bad either. Zach Moss led the team in carries (183) and rushing yards (794), surprising considering he was a career backup with 301 carries in three seasons in the league prior to last season, while their other back Jonathan Taylor is a former rushing champion who the Colts extended on a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal last season, making him the third highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

Moss out-producing Taylor happened because Taylor missed seven games with injury and was limited in terms of his effectiveness when he did play. He still was more effective than Moss on a per carry basis, with a 74.9 PFF grade (66.9 for Moss), a 4.38 YPC average (4.34 for Moss), and 3.12 yards per carry after contact (2.79 for Moss), and he scored 7 rushing touchdowns to Moss’ 5, but that was a far cry from what Taylor has done at his best. 

Taylor also was limited with injuries in 2022, rushing for 861 yards and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries (4.48 YPC) in 11 games and posting a 67.6 PFF grade, but he led the NFL in rushing in 2021, with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC) and a 87.1 PFF grade, and he also had an impressive season as a second round rookie in 2020, rushing for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) and posting a 83.9 PFF grade. 

Moss signed with the Bengals as a free agent this off-season, so this is entirely Jonathan Taylor’s backfield again, with only 2023 5th round pick Evan Hull (one carry as a rookie) remaining as a legitimate backup option. Durability remains a concern for Taylor, especially at a position with the most injury risk, but he’s still only in his age 25 season and has a lot of bounce back potential, especially with Richardson in the backfield with him to give this rushing offense another dimension. Running backs tend to have higher YPC averages when sharing the backfield with a mobile quarterback and that could benefit Taylor significantly if both he and Richardson can stay healthy.

The flip side of that is mobile quarterbacks don’t tend to throw to running backs often, as they can just take off and run with it themselves when there’s nothing open downfield, but pass catching has never been a big part of Taylor’s game anyway, with 123 catches in 53 career games and a career 1.03 yards per route run average. Taylor figures to play close to every down, with none of the Colts’ other running back options being legitimate pass catchers either, but I wouldn’t expect many targets to go his way. Still, the rushing upside is enormous for him, as a highly talented runner, sharing a backfield with a mobile quarterback, without a legitimate threat behind him for carries. If Taylor misses more time with injury, the Colts would be in trouble due to the lack of a legitimate backup option, but Taylor has as much upside as a runner as any running back in the league.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Without many pressing needs on offense, the Colts used their first round pick, 15th overall, on defense, the first team in this year’s draft to select a defensive player, in one of the most offense heavy first rounds of all time. It wasn’t surprising the Colts selected a defensive player, but the position was surprising, as the Colts took edge defender Laiatu Latu, rather than addressing what seemed to be more pressing needs elsewhere. The Colts ranked 5th in the NFL with 51 sacks last season and are just three years removed from using both first and second round picks on edge defenders, taking Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, who both saw significant roles last season (700 snaps and 623 snaps respectively), as did veterans Samson Ebukam (703 snaps) and Tyquan Lewis (437 snaps).

Paye and Odeyingbo had solid sack totals in 2023 with 8.5 and 8 respectively and the Colts picked up Paye’s 5th year option for 2025, but neither of them had good peripheral pass rush stats, with pressure rates of 6.8% and 7.9% respectively, in line with their career averages of 8.8% and 8.3% respectively. Paye excels as a run stopper, leading to a 74.3 PFF grade overall in 2023, after PFF grades of 69.5 and 69.7 in 2021 and 2022, despite his low pressure rate, which could be the biggest reason why his option was picked up, but Odeyingbo was not effective in that aspect either and has received grades of 61.4, 62.6, and 56.9 from PFF through three seasons in the league. 

With Latu coming in, both Paye and Odeyingbo will probably see smaller snap counts in 2024 and it seems unlikely that Odeyingbo will be extended ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2024. Odeyingbo also has good size at 6-6 286 and could play on the interior in pass rush situations more often this season, something he already did on occasion in 2023, as did the 6-3 267 pound Tyquan Lewis. Latu might not have a big rookie year role, but he at least adds even more depth to this group.

With Paye and Odeyingbo not having pressure rates that matched that sack totals in 2023, Samson Ebukam was their best edge defender, posting a 84.4 PFF grade, excelling against the run and adding 9.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. It was a surprising season for Ebukam, a 2017 4th round pick who had never exceeded a 69.1 PFF grade in six seasons in the league prior to last season, while totaling just 23.5 sacks, 27 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Still only in his age 29 season, Ebukam is still theoretically in his prime, but it seems unlikely he’ll have by far the best season of his career again in 2024. 

There’s still a good chance Ebukam plays at an above average level this season, but I would expect him to regress, possibly significantly. Tyquan Lewis also had an impressive season in 2023, albeit in a smaller, rotational role, posting an overall 73.7 PFF grade and excelling as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. For Lewis, it was also a career best year, in terms of snaps played, PFF grade, and pressure rate, as he had combined for 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in 48 career games prior to last season. 

Lewis was a second round pick in 2018, so he’s always had talent, but it also seems unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, now in his age 29 season. He’s also been injury prone throughout his career, playing more than 9 games in a season just twice in six seasons in the league. Lewis could remain a useful rotational player in 2024 and his versatility is valuable, but I would expect him to regress at least somewhat and probably miss more time with injury. This is a deep group with first round pick Laiatu Latu being added, but both Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis are unlikely to repeat last season’s performances, while Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo were not as good of pass rushers as their sack totals suggested in 2024.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a need this off-season for the Colts and one the Colts could have addressed in the first round of the draft (the Seahawks took Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy one pick after theirs). Instead, it looks like they will try to fill their need at this position by loading up at the edge defender position and playing Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis inside more often, which might not be the best solution, unless Latu turns out to be a much better pro than Byron Murphy long-term. 

The Colts have a good starting duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart at the interior defender spot, but both are getting up there in age, going into their age 30 and age 31 seasons respectively, and their depth behind them is suspect, even if Odeyingbo and Lewis see more action inside this season. That depth was exposed last season when Stewart was limited to 445 snaps in 11 games by suspension. Stewart still had a 76.2 PFF grade when he played, but their top reserves Taven Bryan (343 snaps), Eric Johnson (265 snaps), and Adetomiwa Adebawore (132 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 51.3, 30.5, and 27.5 respectively. 

Stewart has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, surpassing 70 twice, playing at his best against the run at 6-4 314 pounds, but also adding a decent 5.9% pressure rate over those five seasons and playing close to an every down role (40.0 snaps per game). His age is a concern and he may start to decline this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he remains at least a capable starter. Originally a free agent this off-season, the Colts gave him a significant contract to stay, re-signing him for 39 million over 3 years.

Buckner, meanwhile, has always been the better player, exceeding 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, with four seasons over 80, including three of the past four. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 61 sacks, 109 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 129 career games, but he also holds up against the run and averages 53.1 snaps per game for his career, while missing just two games in eight seasons in the league. Even if he starts to decline in 2024, he should continue playing at a high level, given how high of a base point he would be declining from.

The Colts signed Raekwon Davis in free agency this off-season to give them more depth, but he is a very underwhelming addition, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, struggling against the run and totaling just a 5.4% pressure rate in four seasons in the league, while averaging 511 snaps per season. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but he’s already going into his age 27 season, so he might not really have much untapped upside. Even as a reserve, he’s not a great option and he’s unlikely to live up to a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal the Colts gave him this off-season.

Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson, and Adetomiwa Adebawore all return as reserves and I wouldn’t expect much out of any of them. Bryan has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, on an average of 449 snaps per season. Johnson and Adebawore are at least young, going in the 5th round in 2022 and 4th round pick in 2023, but neither have shown anything as professionals yet, with Johnson also struggling as a rookie (47.4 PFF grade on 127 snaps) and it’s very possible they’ll never develop into even decent reserves. Buckner and Stewart remain a good starting duo, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 now and the Colts’ depth at this position is still a significant issue.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Just a couple years ago, the Colts’ top linebacker was Shaq Leonard, who was also one of the best linebackers in the league, but injuries sapped his abilities over the past couple seasons and he had just a 60.3 PFF grade on 454 snaps in 9 games in 2023, before being released mid-season when he was unhappy with his role. With Leonard playing a smaller role and then getting released, Zaire Franklin led this group with 1,090 snaps played in 2023, while EJ Speed played 730 snaps on the season and saw his playing time increase when Leonard was gone (373 snaps in his final six games), and Ronnie Harrison played 234 snaps in seven games after being signed from the practice squad mid-season to replace Leonard.

Franklin also played 1,136 snaps in 2022, but he has PFF grades of just 57.0 and 60.9 in those past two seasons, so he’s more of a snap eater than an impact player. A 2018 7th round pick, Franklin played sparingly in his first four seasons in the league (465 snaps) before becoming a starter and, now in his age 28 season, I would expect him to continue being a decent, but unspectacular every down player. Speed, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2019 and didn’t see a lot of playing time in his first four seasons before last season (497 snaps), but he flashed potential with a 78.4 PFF grade on 316 snaps in 2022 and had a decent 65.0 grade in his expanded role in 2023, struggling in coverage, but playing he run well. Speed has always played the run much better than the pass, which is a concern because he’ll probably continue having an expanded role in 2024 and have to cover more often, but he should at least be a decent starter overall.

Harrison will continue being the third linebacker, playing primarily in base packages, the same role as he had down the stretch last season. Originally a safety before changing positions last season, Harrison was mostly decent in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, but the 2018 3rd round pick had trouble staying consistently healthy, missing 15 games in those five seasons, with missed time in all five seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, still only in his age 27 season. This should remain a decent, but unspectacular linebacking corps this season.

Grade: B

Secondary

Cornerback was another big need position for the Colts that they could have addressed early in the draft. Instead, they didn’t address it until the 5th and 6th rounds, when they took Jaylin Simpson and Micah Abraham, who will only be deep reserves as rookies. Without significant additions to this group this off-season, the Colts will hope for better health at this position than a year ago, but even if they are healthier, they could still have issues. Kenny Moore, JuJu Brents, and Dallis Flowers started last season as the Colts’ top-3 cornerbacks, but Brents was limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and Flowers was limited to 304 snaps in 4 games.

Brents was a second round pick in 2023 and showed some promise with a 63.2 PFF grade in his injury-shortened rookie season, so he has the upside to take a step forward and become at least a solid starter in his second season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee, given that we have only seen a small sample size from him. Flowers, meanwhile, also had a decent 66.4 PFF grade in his limited action last season, but that’s an even smaller sample size and Flowers went undrafted in 2022 and struggled with a 49.5 PFF grade on 175 snaps as a rookie, so he’s highly unproven.

With Brents and Flowers missing time last season Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker played 788 snaps and 469 snaps respectively, but both struggled, with PFF grades of 56.8 and 51.8. That’s not surprising, given that Jones was a 7th round rookie, while Baker is a 2022 undrafted free agent who hadn’t played a defensive snap prior to last season. Both remain on the roster for now, but with Brents and Flowers expected to be healthier and Simpson and Abraham added late in the draft, neither Jones nor Baker are guaranteed a roster spot in 2024.

Fortunately, the Colts got a good season out of top cornerback Kenny Moore, as the veteran had a 77.4 PFF grade on 1,089 snaps in 16 games. Moore has a recent history of injuries and inconsistency though. In fact, his 2023 PFF grade was the highest of his seven seasons in the league. Moore has surpassed 70 on PFF three other times, but prior to last season, the most recent instance was in 2020, as he fell to a 66.6 PFF grade in 2021 and fell even further to 55.7 in an injury plagued 2022 season, when he was limited to 774 snaps in 12 games. Brought back on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, Moore could continue playing at a high level in 2024, still only in his age 29 season, but chances are he’ll regress a little bit.

At safety, the Colts re-signed 2020 3rd round pick Julian Blackmon to a 1-year, 3.7 million dollar deal after he had a career best 68.3 PFF grade last season. Blackmon has always had talent, exceeding 60 on PFF on all four seasons in the league, and he is still only going into his age 26 season, but injuries have been a problem for him for most of his career, as he’s missed 17 games in four seasons in the league, even missing two last season in the most impressive full season of his career. He could continue being a solid starter in 2024 and potentially has the upside to be even better, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury.

At the other safety spot, Rodney Thomas, who started most of last season, will compete with Nick Cross, who took over a bigger role down the stretch. Both were drafted in 2022, but they’re very different players. Thomas went in the 7th round and is already heading into his age 26 season, so he probably doesn’t have much untapped upside, and he’s struggled with PFF grades of 54.3 and 58.2 on snap counts of 720 and 962 in two seasons in the league. 

Cross, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and is only going into his age 23 season, so he could have a lot of untapped upside, and he flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade on 292 snaps last season, after struggling with a 56.5 PFF grade in limited action (122 snaps) as a rookie. Cross seems like the better starting option, but he’s still very unproven. Without any major additions to this group this off-season, the Colts figure to have an underwhelming secondary again in 2024.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Colts have a wide range of outcomes for the 2024 season because of the wide range of potential outcomes from their talented, but inexperienced starting quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Colts weren’t quite as good as their 9-8 record last season and aren’t really much better overall this season, so if Richardson isn’t better than Gardner Minshew was a year ago, or if he’s worse than Minshew was, the Colts won’t have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot. However, if Richardson can be an upgrade over Minshew, the Colts have enough talent on the rest of this roster than they should be able to take a step forward and be a playoff team. I would say odds are against them qualifying for the playoffs in the loaded AFC, but that is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

Update: The Colts’ chances of being playoff contenders in the loaded AFC took a big hit when they lost Samson Ebukam for the season with injury. Unless they get an unexpectedly big year from Anthony Richardson, I would expect the Colts to have a losing record.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars got the #1 pick in a draft with Trevor Lawrence, one of the best quarterback prospects of the past couple decades and a consensus choice for the #1 selection. It’s arguable that no team needed that more than the Jaguars, who not only had the worst record in the league the previous season at 1-15, but who also had won more than six games just once in the eleven seasons prior, with an average win total of 4.4 over that stretch.

Through three seasons in the league, Lawrence’s numbers don’t look like what you’d expect out of someone who entered the league with as much promise as he did, as he’s completed 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 58 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 85.0 that is 33rd out of 41 eligible quarterbacks over the past three seasons, behind quarterbacks such as Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones, and Taylor Heinicke. Because of that, some are even calling Lawrence a bust and saying that the Jaguars made a mistake selecting him. That doesn’t tell the whole story though.

Lawrence’s overall numbers are brought down by the fact that he struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, but that was a terrible team with a terrible coaching staff. In the past two seasons, Lawrence has been significantly better. In year two, he completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions (95.2 QB rating).

In year three, his production did take a step back, as did the Jaguars who missed the playoffs at 9-8 after making them and winning a playoff game the previous season. Lawrence completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (88.5 QB rating) in 2023, but he played through multiple injuries down the stretch and was a lot better earlier in the season, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while going 8-4 through 12 starts, before a late season collapse.

Between those first 12 games of last season before injuries got the best of him and his strong run in the second half of the 2022 season after things seemed to click for him, Lawrence completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.39 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (97.3 QB rating) in a 23-game stretch, including playoffs, while going 16-7 and leading the Jaguars to the second round of the post-season. If you look at his overall production over three seasons in the league, it’s underwhelming, but if you look at how he played over the past year and a half before injuries got the best of him late last season, you can see the potential for a quarterback who is still only going into his age 25 season in 2024.

WIth Lawrence extension-eligible now three years into his career, the Jaguars will have a decision to make on his long-term future. Lawrence has two years left on his rookie deal and could theoretically be franchised tagged twice after that, but Lawrence’s salary would jump significantly on his 5th year option in 2025 and then even higher if he were to be franchise tagged, so either way he is about to get a lot more expensive. 

If the Jaguars wait to extend Lawrence, they risk his price getting higher if he bounces back from injury and continues to develop and his price will also go up as more quarterbacks sign big long-term deals. They also risk upsetting their franchise quarterback if they make him wait too long for long-term security. Even now, Lawrence’s long-term extension would probably exceed the 53 million annually the Lions gave to Jared Goff and it will almost definitely only get higher the longer they wait. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, but Lawrence still has the upside to develop into that kind of quarterback. 

With Lawrence about to get a lot more expensive, the Jaguars seem to be trying to take full advantage of their window with Lawrence as a cheap quarterback and have been aggressive adding talent on both sides of the ball in free agency, leading to them ranking 10th in total average annual value of their roster, despite Lawrence still being relatively cheap. Average annual value tends to correlate heavily with a team’s winning percentage, which is a good sign for the Jaguars’ chances of being successful in 2024, especially since they were 8-4 last season before Lawrence’s injuries got the best of him. 

Lawrence only missed one game with his injuries last season, which is the only game he’s missed in his career, but if he happens to miss more time with injury, the Jaguars added Mac Jones to be his backup this off-season. Jones was also a first round pick in the same 2021 NFL Draft as Lawrence, going 15th overall to the Patriots, and he actually seemed like the better quarterback in year one, completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, but he has struggled mightily over the past two seasons, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.50 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions, leading to him being benched numerous times and ultimately being traded from the Patriots to the Jaguars for a late round pick. 

Jones is still only in his age 26 season though and much of his struggles in the past two seasons can be blamed on the poor scheme and lack of talent around him, so he’s a worthwhile reclamation project for the Jaguars and probably one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He’ll technically have to compete for the backup job with incumbent CJ Beathard, who has a career 82.1 QB rating in 13 starts in 7 seasons in the league, but Jones should be considered the heavy favorite for the job. The Jaguars have good depth behind a talented young starting quarterback who was having a strong year and a half stretch before late season injuries in 2023. This is one of the better quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The area the Jaguars have made the biggest investment in over the past few off-seasons is in the receiving corps. Two off-seasons ago, they signed wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to contracts worth 72 million over 4 years and 24 million over 3 years and tight end Evan Engram to a contract worth 9 million over 1 year. Last off-season, they franchise tagged and extended Evan Engram on a 3-year, 41.25 million dollar deal and traded for wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the final 1-year, 11.116 million left on his contract. This off-season, they let Ridley walk and released Zay Jones ahead of the final year and 7 million of his contract and then replaced them with free agent Gabe Davis on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal and first round pick Brian Thomas. Kirk, Davis, and Thomas will be their top-3 wide receivers this season, while Engram will continue having a big role as a pass catching tight end.

Kirk will probably be the de facto #1 receiver, as he has been for the past two seasons. In his first season in Jacksonville in 2022, Kirk had a 84/1108/8 slash line with a 1.79 yards per route run average and last season he was on pace for a 81/1115/4 slash line with a 2.07 yards per route run average before missing the final five games of the season with injury. Kirk was considered by many to be a big overpay when the Jaguars signed him, but he had a 77/982/5 slash line with a 1.81 yards per route run average in his final season in Arizona and he was a former 2nd round pick going into only his age 26 season, so the Jaguars saw potential in him and credit them for being right, with Kirk continuing to develop since joining the Jaguars. Now his contract, which only makes him the 21st highest paid wide receiver in terms of average annual salary, seems very reasonable. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Kirk in 2024.

With Kirk missing time with injury last season, Calvin Ridley led the team with a 76/1016/8 slash line, but he only averaged 1.57 yards per route run, so he won’t be too hard to replace, nor will Zay Jones, who averaged just 1.05 yards per route run average with just a 34/321/2 slash line in 9 games an injury plagued season. Gabe Davis is probably a slight downgrade from Ridley, with a 1.44 yards per route run average over the past three seasons in Buffalo with Josh Allen, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in 2024 and fill Ridley’s old role well. The rookie Brian Thomas, meanwhile, should be a significant upgrade over Jones so, in the aggregate, Davis and Thomas should be an upgrade on Ridley and Jones.

When the Jaguars originally signed Evan Engram, that signing was also questioned, as he had averaged just 1.36 yards per route run in five seasons with the Giants at that point in his career, with just a 0.89 yards per route run average in his final season before free agency, and he had missed 16 games with injury in those five seasons, while maxing out with a 64/722/6 slash line. However, Engram has taken a big step forward since joining a much better offense in Jacksonville, surpassing his career best slash line with the Giants in both seasons with the Jaguars, totaling a 73/766/4 slash line with a 1.46 yards per route run average in 2022, leading to the Jaguars franchise tagging him and giving him a big extension, and then totaling a 114/963/4 slash line with a 1.56 yards per route run average in 2023. Engram is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been the past two seasons, he should at least be a solid receiving tight end.

Depth is a bit of concern for the Jaguars outside of their top-3 wide receivers and their top tight end. Parker Washington and Tim Jones saw expanded action last season when injuries kept Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out of action, but Washington, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged just 0.75 yards per route run, while Tim Jones, a 2021 undrafted free agent, averaged just 0.45 yards per route run, in line with the 0.51 yards per route run he averaged in the only other experience of his career in 2022. Both are young, but neither entered the league with much upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if neither even developed into capable backups. The Jaguars signed veteran Devin Duvarney in free agency, but he’s more of a return specialist than a wide receiver, averaging just 0.91 yards per route run with a career best slash line of 37/407/3 in four seasons in the league.

At tight end, the Jaguars used a 2nd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Brenton Strange, but he didn’t show much as a rookie, playing just 307 snaps, mostly as a blocker, and averaging just 0.41 yards per route run. Strange actually was the 3rd tight end for most of last season, consistently playing behind Luke Farrell (412 snaps). Farrell was also mostly a blocker, but also added 1.36 yards per route run as a pass catcher. A 5th round pick in 2021, Farrell has only averaged 1.09 yards per route run for his career and probably doesn’t have much upside beyond being a decent blocker. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Strange took a step forward in year two and took over the #2 tight end job. Even if the Jaguars’ depth is suspect, they still have a good top-4 pass catching targets with Kirk, Engram, Davis, and Thomas.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

On the offensive line, the biggest addition the Jaguars have made in the past few off-seasons is right guard Brandon Scherff, who they signed to a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. Scherff is still the 8th highest paid guard in the league even as other guards have gotten big extensions in the past couple off-seasons, so it was a big commitment for the Jaguars. It was understandable why they did it, as Scherff had finished above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons of his career prior joining the Jaguars, but he had also missed 27 games in the past five seasons and was heading into his age 31 season in his first season in Jacksonville, so it was a risky signing.

Scherff has managed to stay healthy since joining the Jaguars, playing all 17 games in both seasons, but he hasn’t been the same player, receiving grades of 59.0 and 67.3 from PFF, the two worst single season grades of his career. Now going into his age 33 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline further. He still has a good chance to at least be a decent starter, but he’s still unlikely to live up to his big contract. 

Coming into last season, left guard and center were weaknesses for the Jaguars, but they addressed the left guard spot with a mid-season trade for Ezra Cleveland, who they then kept on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, and then they also added center Mitch Morse on a 2-year, 10.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Cleveland struggled in his first half season in Jacksonville, with a 46.0 PFF grade in five starts, but he had PFF grades of 66.2, 68.6, 73.5, and 73.8 in his first three and a half seasons in the league with the Vikings before being traded to Jacksonville, so he has some obvious bounce back potential, still only in his age 26 season, now going into his first full season with his new team.

Morse, meanwhile, has been a capable, if unspectacular starter for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league (126 starts), but only finishing above 70 twice, with the most recent instance coming all the way back in 2018. Morse is now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline, hence why he was relatively cheap in free agency, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be a big upgrade on Luke Fortner, who struggled mightily with a 44.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. Fortner, a 2022 3rd round pick who also struggled with a 49.6 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, will now be a backup, a role he’s better suited for, as will Tyler Shatley, a career backup (51 starts in 10 seasons in the league) in his age 33 season, who struggled with a 47.5 PFF grade in 6 starts at guard last season before Cleveland arrived.

At tackle, the Jaguars have left tackle Cam Robinson, a 2017 2nd round pick who is on a 3-year, 54 million dollar extension, and right tackle Anton Harrison, who was their first round choice in 2023. Robinson isn’t quite worth his salary, but he’s received grades in the 60s from PFF in each of the past four seasons, so he’s at least a capable starter. He missed eight games last season and was replaced by swing tackle Walker Little, a 2021 2nd round pick who was mediocre with a 58.8 PFF grade. 

Little was highly drafted, but has made just 17 nondescript starts in three seasons in the league and his presence didn’t prevent the Jaguars from selecting Harrison last year. Walker is at least a good reserve though and he has the versatility to play guard. Harrison, meanwhile, struggled with a 53.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but he entered the league very young and very raw, so he could easily take a step forward in year two, still only in his age 22 season. This offensive line isn’t as good as the Jaguars would like, given how much they’ve invested in this group in recent years, but they’re still at least a decent unit and they should be better than a year ago, with Cam Robinson likely healthier, Ezra Cleveland likely bouncing back from a down year, and Mitch Morse being added in free agency.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Along with Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars drafted Lawrence’s college teammate, running back Travis Etienne, in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Etienne missed his entire rookie season with injury, but has developed into a feature back in the past two seasons. He was a lot more efficient in year two than year three, rushing for 1,125 yards and 5 touchdowns on 220 carries (5.11 YPC) in 2022, as opposed to 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns on 267 carries (3.78 YPC) in 2023, but he actually finished with a better PFF grade in 2023 (77.0) than in 2022 (72.1), as his YPC after contact stayed about the same (3.08 in 2022, 2.87 in 2023), while his missed tackle rate increased and his receiving production went from 35/316/0 with 1.00 yards per route run in 2022 to 58/476/1 with 1.18 yards per route run in 2023. In 2024, he should have better run blocking and I would expect him to finish between his 2022 and 2023 averages in terms of YPC, while continuing to carry the load and play on all three downs.

The Jaguars used a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on running back Tank Bigsby to try to give Etienne more rest, but Etienne actually played more in 2023 than he did in 2022, as Bigsby struggled mightily as a rookie, averaging just 2.64 YPC on 50 carries. D’Ernest Johnson, the Jaguars’ other backup running back, also struggled with a 2.63 YPC on 41 carries. Bigsby has a good chance to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year two, but Etienne still figures to have a big role as the featured back. Johnson remains as well and his career 4.65 YPC average suggests he should be better in 2024 than 2023, although he only has 182 carries in 6 seasons in the league and wouldn’t be a candidate for a big workload even if Etienne got hurt. The Jaguars also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Keilan Robinson and he could earn playing time if both Bisgby and Johnson struggle. The Jaguars’ depth is still questionable, but they at least have options with potential and Etienne is still an above average feature back.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

On defense, the Jaguars’ biggest off-season addition was Arik Armstead, who they brought over from the 49ers on a 3-year, 43.5 million dollar deal. Armstead is now going into his age 31 season and injuries have been a concern for much of Armstead’s career, as he’s missed 31 games in nine seasons in the league since going in the 1st round in 2015, including 13 games missed over the past two seasons, but he’s mostly played at a high level when healthy, totaling 33.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 116 career games as a pass rusher, while also playing the run well and having the versatility to play outside on the edge from time to time. 

In total, Armstead has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of nine seasons in the league, including 2023, when he had a 81.9 PFF grade with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 12 games, despite his age. He could easily start declining this season and could also miss more time with injury, but even at less than his best and for less than 17 games, he should be an asset for this team and an upgrade over all of the Jaguars’ interior defenders last season, when Roy Robertson-Harris led the way with just a 62.3 PFF grade on 683 snaps. 

Robertson-Harris remains and should continue having a significant rotational role. Run defense is an issue for him and always has been, but he had 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate last season and has 17 sacks, 44 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 100 career games in eight seasons in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, he could start to decline in 2024 and, even at his best, he’s never been more than an average starter, but he should still at least be a useful rotational pass rusher on the interior.

The Jaguars are also hoping for more out of DaVon Hamilton. A 2020 3rd round pick, Hamilton struggled on snap counts of 408 and 443 in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 74.9 PFF grade on 610 snaps in his third season in the league in 2022, earning a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar extension as a result, only to be limited to 190 snaps in 8 games and a 36.2 PFF grade in 2023 because of injuries that plagued him all season. Only in his age 27 season, Hamilton has obvious bounce back potential if he’s past the injuries that plagued him last season. It’s worth noting he’s only a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but even if he isn’t quite that good again in 2024, he should still give the Jaguars a lot more than he gave them in 2023.

The Jaguars also used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson respectively. Smith should have a role based on where he was drafted, but Jefferson could have a hard time earning playing time in a suddenly deep position group. The Jaguars also bring back Adam Gotsis (427 snaps), Jeremiah Ledbetter (369 snaps), and Tyler Lacy (145 snaps) from last year’s group, with Folorunso Fatukasi (61.0 PFF grade on 415 snaps) being their only notable departure at the group this off-season. None of Gotsis, Ledbetter, and Lacy will be guaranteed a role though, in a much deeper position group than a year ago, highlighted by Armstead, Robertson-Harris, Hamilton, and the rookie Smith.

Gotsis is entering his 9th season in the league and has been an unspectacular rotational player throughout his career, receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF on an average of 413 snaps per season in eight seasons in the league, including a 61.0 PFF grade on 427 snaps in 2023, but now heading into his age 32 season, it’s fair to question how much longer he can even keep that up and he shouldn’t be considered a lock for the final roster going into 2024. Lacy, meanwhile, was a 2023 4th round pick who showed little in a very limited role in a relatively thin position group as a rookie, while Ledbetter played 369 snaps out of necessity (after playing just 82 snaps in the previous five seasons combined) and predictably struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade. Lacy might stay on the roster on upside alone, but neither he nor Ledbetter are roster locks either, in a much better position group than a year ago, with Armstead being added in free agency, Smith being added early in the draft, and DaVon Hamilton likely being healthier.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Jaguars also spent heavily this off-season to keep top edge defender Josh Allen, franchise tagging him and then giving him a 5-year, 141.25 million dollar deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual salary. It’s hard to argue he doesn’t deserve it. The 7th overall pick in 2019, Allen has never been bad and he’s seen his PFF grade increase in every season in the league since being drafted, from 68.4 on 634 snaps as a rookie to 89.5 on 880 snaps in 2023. In the past three seasons, he has exceeded 78 on PFF in every season while totaling 32 sacks, 45 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 50 games, including career highs with 17.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 17.5% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in the best season of his career in 2023.

Opposite Josh Allen, Travon Walker also had impressive pass rush snaps with 10 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate, while playing 869 snaps, but he benefited significantly from Josh Allen drawing double teams opposite him and he struggled mightily against the run, missing a position leading 15 tackles, leading to Walker receiving just a 53.9 overall grade from PFF. Walker was the 1st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and, even if that was a historically weak draft at the top, he still has a ton of upside, still only going into his age 24 season. He was also mediocre with a 60.3 PFF grade on 788 snaps as a rookie, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a big step forward in year three and, even if he doesn’t improve significantly, 2024 could still easily be the best season of his career.

Walker and Allen rarely came off the field in 2023 because of the Jaguars’ lack of depth at the position, with Dawaune Smoot (340 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (283 snaps) struggling mightily in limited action with PFF grades of 42.4 and 54.7 respectively, and things should be similar this season. Smoot and Chaisson are gone and wouldn’t really be missed if not for the fact that the Jaguars didn’t really replace them. Their most notable addition was Trevis Gipson. Gipson was a 5th round pick by the Bears in 2020 and was a decent rotational edge rusher with them in 2021 and 2022, playing 489 and 641 snaps respectively and totaling 10 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. However, Gipson struggled mightily against the run, leading to him being cut by the Bears going into 2023 and then playing just 76 snaps in his lone season in Tennessee. 

Gipson will have the opportunity for more playing time in Jacksonville and could go back to being a useful rotational pass rusher, only in his age 27 season, but he should also continue struggling against the run and is overall an underwhelming top reserve. The Jaguars also used a 7th round pick in this year’s draft on Myles Cole, who could be forced into a significant reserve role as a rookie, a role in which he will almost definitely struggle. Cole will compete for the 4th edge defender position with 2023 5th round pick Yasir Abdullah, who showed very little promise on 45 snaps as a rookie and who would likely struggle even in a rotational role. Josh Allen is one of the best edge defenders in the league and Travon Walker at least has a lot of upside, but the Jaguars still lack depth at a very top-heavy position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Things stay the same personnel wise for the Jaguars at linebacker, which is a good thing because Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd were one of the better linebacker duos in the league with PFF grades of 75.2 and 78.1 respectively. Both players had the best season of their careers, but Lloyd at least has a good chance to repeat his performance, as a 2022 1st round pick who is still only going into his third season in the league. Lloyd struggled with a 48.3 PFF grade on 925 snaps as a rookie, but he’s unlikely to regress back to rookie year form at this point and, even if he doesn’t match or exceed last season’s performance, he should at least remain an above average starter, with the upside for more.

Oluokun’s chances of repeating last season’s performance are not as good, as he had never exceeded a 69.6 PFF grade in five seasons in the league prior to last season, including two seasons below 60 on PFF in 2020 and 2021. Oluokun isn’t totally over the hill yet, going into his age 29 season, but odds are probably against him repeating his career best year. He’s always been at least a capable run stuffer and a tackle machine, but last season was the first season of his career where his coverage abilities matched his run defense and that might not continue in 2024.

The Jaguars rarely use more than two off ball linebackers on the field at once, so the Jaguars’ depth would only be a factor in case of injury. Chad Muma was the only other pure off ball linebacker to see action last season and 107 of the 146 snaps he played last season came in two games when Lloyd was out due. Muma was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but has mostly struggled on 432 career snaps, including a 38.1 PFF grade last season. 

Muma might still have some untapped upside and isn’t a bad backup option because of that, but he almost definitely would be a downgrade from Lloyd or Oluokun in case of injury. The Jaguars also have 2023 4th round pick Ventrell Miller, but he didn’t play a single defensive snap as a rookie and is a complete unknown at this point in his career. Lloyd and Oluokun should still remain a talented linebacker duo in 2024 even if they aren’t quite as good as they were a year ago and their linebacker depth at least has some upside, even if they are unproven.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with signing Arik Armstead, the Jaguars also signed safety Darnell Savage and cornerback Ronald Darby to contracts worth 21.75 million over 3 years and 8.5 million over 2 years respectively this off-season, but they are replacing Rayshawn Jenkins and Darious Williams respectively and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both were downgrades. Darby will almost definitely be a downgrade because Darious Williams excelled with a 79.5 PFF grade on 1,035 snaps last season and was the Jaguars’ best cornerback.

Darby has definitely had his moments, exceeding 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including five seasons over 70, but he’s also been incredibly injury prone, missing at least five games due to injury in five of the past seven seasons with 42 missed games total in his career. Now going into his age 30 season, his injury proneness is unlikely to change. He actually managed to play 16 games last season with the Ravens, but only played 442 snaps as a part-time cornerback and his 69.5 PFF grade was solid, but a far cry from what Darious Williams gave the Jaguars last season.

Savage has a better chance of adequately replacing Rayshawn Jenkins, who only had a 60.9 PFF grade across 1,099 snaps last season, but Savage has been inconsistent across his five seasons in the league. A first round pick in 2019 by the Packers, Savage showed his potential early in his career, with PFF grades of 67.1 and 75.3 respectively, but he fell to 58.5 and 47.5 in the next two seasons, leading to him getting benched late in the 2022 season. He got his starting job back for 2023 and was better with a 66.3 PFF grade, but missed seven games with injury and played just 558 snaps. He’s not as injury prone as Darby, but he’s missed time in four of five seasons in the league and has been inconsistent when on the field. He’s still only in his age 27 season and he has a lot of talent, but it’s tough to know what the Jaguars are going to get out of him.

The Jaguars also lost cornerback Tre Herndon this off-season, after he played well in limited action with a 70.8 PFF grade on 482 snaps last season, and they only replaced him with 3rd and 5th round picks Jarrian Jones and Deantre Prince, who both could easily struggle if forced into significant action in year one. The Jaguars also have Montaric Brown, a 2022 7th round pick who struggled mightily with a 51.3 PFF grade on 475 snaps in the first significant action of his career last season, mostly as an injury replacement. He’s unlikely to be the answer to replace Tre Herndon either. Their best option is probably Antonio Johnson, a 2023 5th round pick who flashed potential with a 73.8 grade on 172 snaps as a rookie, but he’s a projection to a larger role and could also be a downgrade from Herndon.

The Jaguars should at least get more out of Tyson Campbell, who was expected to be their top cornerback in 2023, but was limited to a 61.5 PFF grade on 589 snaps in 11 games due to injury. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell had a 62.7 PFF grade on 864 snaps as a rookie, before breaking out with a 82.1 PFF grade on 1,138 snaps in 2022. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but he’s still only going into his age 24 season, so, if he’s past his 2023 injuries, he could easily bounce back to his 2022 form, or at least close to it. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Jaguars might try to extend him before the season starts because his price would only go up if he bounced back this season.

The Jaguars might try to mask some of their lack of depth at cornerback by using three safeties more often in sub packages, with Darnell Savage having the versatility to play on the slot if needed. Andre Cisco returns as the other starter opposite free agent addition Darnell Savage. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential with a 67.9 PFF grade on 247 snaps as a rookie, before receiving 67.1 and 68.9 grades in 2022 and 2023 as a starter (30 starts). He should continue at least playing at that level in 2024 and, only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had the best year of his career yet this year.

Andrew Wingard remains as the 3rd safety and, as far as 3rd safeties go, he’s one of the better ones in the league. He’s only been a starter once in his career, receiving a 69.0 PFF grade on 930 snaps (15 starts) in 2021, but he’s excelled in a reserve role the past two seasons with a PFF grades of 76.2 and 79.4 on snap counts of 217 and 330 respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, Wingard could be in for an expanded role in 2024 in a pretty thin secondary. Top cornerback Tyson Campbell has a high upside and bounce back potential coming off of an injury plagued season, but the rest of this group is average at best.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars were 8-4 last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt and Lawrence was in the middle of an impressive stretch of about a season and a half or so. Assuming Lawrence can stay healthy this time around, the he and the Jaguars have a good chance to bounce back and their supporting cast on both sides of the ball is arguably better this year than it was last year when the Jaguars got off to that impressive start.

Update: The Jaguars should be better than a year ago, but the rest of the AFC is better too, so they could easily be on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC South

Detroit Lions 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

Three years ago, the Lions kicked off a multi-year rebuilding process by trading away long-time franchise quarterback Matt Stafford to the Rams. The Lions had compiled just a 14-33-1 record over the previous three seasons with no playoff victories in Stafford’s 12-year tenure with the team and, with Stafford heading into his age 33 season in 2021, he demanded a trade, a request the Lions were willing to oblige, in need of a different direction as a team. The Lions could have traded Stafford for a top-10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and tried to shorten the rebuilding process, but instead they took a pair of first round picks from the Rams in 2022 and 2023, a 2021 3rd round pick, and former Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who had fallen out of favor with his old team.

Goff is 6 years younger than Stafford, but he was expected to be a downgrade under center, the 51.8 million guaranteed he was owed in the next two seasons was actually more than the 43 million that Stafford’s contract was set to pay him over those two seasons and, ultimately, most viewed Goff as a stopgap solution under center, rather than a long-term solution. Goff completed 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 107 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions in 69 starts in five seasons with the Rams, who selected him #1 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, but the success he had was considered a product of the offensive system and talent he had around him with the Rams.

In Goff’s first season in Detroit, he predictably struggled on a team with much less talent around the quarterback and an inferior coaching staff, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of just 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for a Lions team that went just 3-13-1. However, the Lions got a new offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson for the 2022 season, which proved to be a huge upgrade, and they rapidly improved the rest of their roster, mostly through strong drafts. 

Their offense took a big step forward first, leading to the Lions improving to 9-8 in 2022, with Goff completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, and then the defense followed with a big step forward of their own in 2023, leading to the Lions finishing with a 12-5 record and making the NFC Championship, their first 12+ win season and their first NFC Championship appearance since 1991. Goff finished the 2023 season with a 67.3% completion percentage, 7.56 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on a team that finished 7th in total DVOA, 5th in offensive DVOA, and 13th in defensive DVOA.

In 2024, the Lions are mostly running it back. They brought back their top-7 and 14 of their top-16 in terms of offensive snaps played, as well as 10 of their top-14 in terms of defensive snaps played. However, their championship window might be smaller than most realize. Many of their talented young players will be up for extensions in the next couple off-seasons and it will be tough for the Lions to pay everyone, especially since they had to give quarterback Jared Goff a massive 4-year, 212 million dollar extension this off-season, making him the second highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract in 2024. 

Goff’s cap hit doesn’t explode right away, but it soon will and it will be tough for the Lions to keep the amount of talent around him that Goff will need for this team to be competitive at the highest level. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Goff is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league. The Lions should remain one of the best teams in the league in 2024, but if they can’t win it all this season, they might find their Super Bowl window will close faster than anticipated. 

Injuries have never been a big concern for Goff, as he’s missed just 4 games due to injury in 8 seasons in the league, but if he happens to miss time, the Lions would likely turn to Hendon Hooker, who was drafted in the 3rd round in the 2023 NFL Draft. Hooker has never thrown a regular season pass in his career, after missing most of his rookie season rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered in his final collegiate season, but Hooker could have been a second, or even a first round pick he had not suffered that injury and, if he makes a full recovery, he could easily develop into one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. That’s far from a guarantee and he would still probably be a noticeable downgrade from Goff if he was forced into action, but this is still a better backup quarterback situation than the majority of teams in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One of the key young additions the Lions have added in their recent drafts is Penei Sewell, who they drafted 7th overall in 2021. Sewell showed promise with a 77.0 PFF grade as a rookie, splitting time between right tackle and left tackle, filling in for an injured Taylor Decker, and then he broke out in years two and three, once becoming a full-time right tackle opposite Decker, receiving PFF grades of 80.6 and 90.7 respectively over the past two seasons. 

Still only in his age 24 season, it’s possible Sewell could continue getting even better going forward and, even if he doesn’t, he seems likely to be one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come. The Lions paid handsomely to keep him on a long-term extension this off-season, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary on a 4-year, 112 million dollar deal that was added on to the final two years of his rookie deal, but Sewell should prove to be well worth that contract and is the type of player you can’t let get away.

Taylor Decker will continue starting opposite Sewell at the left tackle spot. Also a former first round pick, back in 2016, Decker has manned that spot since his rookie year and has done well there, making 112 total starts in his career and finishing above 70 on PFF in seven of eight seasons, including six straight seasons and a 77.3 PFF grade in 2023. Decker now enters his age 30 season, but hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off a little, he should remain at least an above average starter. 

Center Frank Ragnow is also a former first round pick who plays at a high level, as the 2018 1st round pick has made 80 starts in six seasons in the league and has finished above 70 on PFF in five straight seasons, including three seasons over 80 and a career best 88.1 in 2023, good for 1st best among centers on PFF. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as his career best year from 2023.

The Lions weren’t quite as soon at guard last season, as compared to tackle and center, but they still got mostly solid play at those spots, with Graham Glasgow (15 starts), Jonah Jackson (12 starts), and Halapoulivaati Vaitai (3 starts) receiving grades of 75.1, 59.7, and 68.3 respectively from PFF. Jackson and Vaitai weren’t retained this off-season, but Glasgow was re-signed to a 3-year, 20 million dollar deal to start at one guard spot, while free agent signing Kevin Zeitler will start at the other, after signing for 6 million on a 1-year deal this off-season.

Glasgow has made 106 starts in eight seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2016 and has mostly been a solid starter, but last season was actually the best season of his career in terms of PFF grade and, now heading into his age 32 season, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career for the second straight season. He has finished above 60 on PFF in six of the last seven seasons, including four seasons over 70, so he could remain a solid starter even if he isn’t as good as he was a year ago, but he also had a 59.3 grade as recently as 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined significantly from a year ago, especially when you consider his age.

Zeitler’s age is also a concern, as he now heads into his age 34 season and just had the second worst full season grade of his 12-year career (181 starts) in 2023, but he still had a 69.3 PFF grade and, even if he does decline further, he could still be a solid starter for the Lions. In his prime, Zeitler was one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades over 70 in ten of his twelve seasons, including a 74.0 PFF grade as recently as 2022, and three seasons over 80, so even at less than his best, he should still be a worthwhile signing for the Lions, unless his abilities happen to completely fall off a cliff.

Depth is a concern for this group. Last year they had six starting caliber offensive linemen going into the season, but with Jackson and Vaitai both gone and only Zeitler being added, their depth is pretty suspect now. At guard Kayode Awosika (252 snaps) and Colby Sordal (253 snaps) both struggled in limited action last season. Sordal was only a 5th round rookie and could be better in year two, but he could still struggle even if he improves, while Awosika went undrafted in 2021 and has mostly struggled across 450 career snaps. At center, the Lions don’t have any reserves who were drafted in this year’s draft or who have ever played an offensive snap in the NFL, though they would probably slide Glasgow inside to center, where he has experience, and start either Awosika or Sordal in Glasgow’s spot at guard, in case of a Glasgow injury. Still, their lack of depth at both guard and center is a concern. 

Meanwhile at tackle, Dan Skipper will probably remain their swing tackle and he was decent on 101 snaps last season (66.9 PFF grade), but the 2017 undrafted free agent is already in his age 30 and has played just 546 career snaps (6 starts), with his career high 387 snaps coming in a 2022 campaign in which he received a 43.9 grade from PFF, so he’s a very underwhelming swing tackle option. The Lions did use a 4th round pick on Giovanni Manu to compete for the swing tackle job, but he would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time in case of injury. The Lions still have arguably the best starting five offensive line in the league, but their lack of depth can’t go unmentioned. 

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason for the Lions being able to quickly rebuild through the draft was the extra draft capital the Lions got from the Rams in the Stafford trade, including a pair of first round picks, but the Lions have also found steals outside of the first round, which has been more important to their quick rebuild. Probably the biggest of those steals was 2021 5th round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown immediately exceeded his draft slot with a 90/912/5 slash line and a 1.74 yards per route run average as a rookie and he’s only gotten better since then, with a 106/1161/6 slash line and a 2.40 yards per route run average in 2022 and a 119/1515/10 slash line and a 2.63 yards per route run average last season, when he also finished 7th among wide receivers on PFF with a 90.6 overall grade. 

Still only in his age 25 season, St. Brown is just now entering his prime and should be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. Going into the final year of his rookie deal in 2024, St. Brown wasn’t cheap to extend, receiving a 4-year, 120 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the third highest paid wide receiver in the league in average annual salary, but he should prove to be well worth that contract.

The Lions also found tight end Sam LaPorta in the second round of last year’s draft and he immediately broke out as one of the best tight ends in the league, ranking 5th among tight ends in receiving yardage with a 86/889/10 slash line, 6th in yards per route run with 1.76, and 5th among tight ends with a 76.5 overall grade from PFF. All that is even more impressive when you consider that tight ends, including some of the best in the league, almost always take at least a year to develop into useful pass catchers. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be even better in year two in 2024. With three years left of cheap team control, LaPorta should remain a very talented complementary pass catcher behind St. Brown for years to come.

Ironically, the one receiver the Lions did use a first round pick on, Jameson Williams, has not come close to living up to the billing yet. The Lions knew they wouldn’t get much out of Williams in year one when he took him 12th overall in 2022 just a few months removed from a torn ACL, but Williams played just 78 rookie year snaps and then missed another five games in 2023 due to suspension and injury and he didn’t play all that well even when on the field, managing just a 1.47 yards per route run average and a 24/354/2 slash line. Williams is still only in his age 23 season and had the talent to be a top-5 pick before his injury, so I wouldn’t give up on him taking a step forward, possibly even a big one, in year three, but he’s been a big disappointment thus far in his career, even with the caveat that the Lions knew he’d miss most of his rookie year when they drafted him.

Williams will at least get a lot of opportunity for playing time and targets in this receiving corps, as the Lions are very thin behind St. Brown and LaPorta, who should both continue getting huge target shares. Josh Reynolds was third on the team in receiving with a 40/608/5 slash line in 2023, but he wasn’t retained this off-season and the Lions didn’t do anything to replace him, instead banking on Williams taking a step forward. Behind St. Brown and Williams at wide receiver, the Lions’ two best options are probably Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Raymond was third among Lions receivers with a 35/489/1 slash line last season, and also had slash lines of 48/576/4 and 47/616/0 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but he’s never exceeded those receiving totals in eight years in the league and that’s unlikely to start in 2024, now his age 30 season. Peoples-Jones had a 61/839/3 slash line in 2022 for the Browns, but was not that efficient with a 1.46 yards per route run average and took a back seat in the passing game in Cleveland in 2023, before getting sent to Detroit in a mid-season trade and continuing to contribute very little, finishing the year with a 13/155/0 slash line and 0.60 yards per route run average between the two teams. Peoples-Jones is at least young, only in his age 25 season, but the 2020 6th round pick has averaged just 1.38 yards per route run for his career and doesn’t have the talent to develop into much more than he’s been throughout his career.

At tight end, the Lions retained top backup Brock Wright on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal, matching the contract the 2021 undrafted free agent received from the 49ers in restricted free agency this off-season. He has just 43 career catches and a 1.08 yards per route run average, so he won’t contribute much in the passing game, but he’s at least a solid blocker and you could do a lot worse than him as your #2 tight end. St. Brown and LaPorta highlight a very top heavy receiving corps, but Jameson Williams at least has upside as the 3rd receiving option, while Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones aren’t bad even if they’re underwhelming.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Lions also have used a first round pick on a running back recently, taking Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. It was a controversial decision because the Lions had just given a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal to veteran running back David Montgomery in free agency and because running backs taken in the first round are rarely worth it, but the Lions are a run heavy team that had enough opportunity for both Montgomery and Gibbs and they also had a lot of young talent on both sides of the field and could avoid to take a luxury position like running back.

Gibbs’ rookie season started off slow, as he had just 13.3 touches per game (9.8 carries, 3.5 catches) in his first 4 games, but he took over a bigger role when Montgomery missed 3 games with injury, averaging 22.7 touches (17.0 carries, 5.7 catches) in those 3 games and then he continued having a bigger role even after Montgomery returned, averaging 14.4 touches per game (11.7 carries, 2.7 catches) in the final 9 games of the season, while Montgomery averaged 15.0 touches per game (13.9 carries, 1.1 catches). If you look just at those final 9 games, Gibbs produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 200 carries for 1,031 yards and 15 touchdowns (5.15 YPC), with a 45/285/2 slash line as a receiver, while Montgomery produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 236 carries for 1190 yards and 13 touchdowns (5.04 YPC), with a 19/96/0 slash line as a receiver,

Montgomery only averaged 3.94 YPC on 915 carries in four seasons with the Bears before joining the Lions last season, but Montgomery was on some bad offenses with bad blocking in Chicago, so it’s not that surprising that he’s been significantly better in a better situation in Detroit, finishing his first season in Detroit with a 4.63 YPC average. However, Gibbs averaged 5.19 YPC on the season and is a much more talented running back. Going into 2024 and Gibbs’ second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gibbs get an even bigger share of the running back touches, but the Lions ranked 7th in the league in carries last season and should wind up around there again this season, so there will be plenty of opportunity for both running backs.

The area Gibbs struggled the most in as a rookie was in the passing game, ironic considering that was expected to be his biggest strength. His 52/316/1 slash line looks good, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and 4.45 yards per target, so he wasn’t that efficient with his opportunity. He has a good chance to be significantly more efficient in that aspect in year two though and he’s still the better of the Lions’ top-2 backs in the passing game, with Montgomery averaging 0.72 yards per route run and 4.88 yards per target a year ago and 1.00 yards per route run and 6.22 yards per target for his career. 

Behind Gibbs and Montgomery, the Lions have Craig Reynolds, who had 41 carries for 179 yards (4.37 YPC) and 5 catches for 47 yards last season, mostly as an injury replacement when Gibbs or Montgomery missed time. Reynolds only has 142 touches in five seasons in the league, with but all two of those coming in the past three seasons, but he has a decent 4.29 YPC average and is better than a lot of #3 backs. Still, the run heavy Lions decided to use a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Sione Vaki, who could end up beating out Reynolds for that #3 back job in a very deep running back group.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

After the Lions went 3-13-1 in the first year of their rebuild, they received the #2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and used it on edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who has been a big part of their improvement in recent years, proving to be more than worth where he was selected. As a rookie, Hutchinson finished with 9.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, while excelling against the run, and received a 80.7 PFF overall grade. In year two, Hutchinson got even better, finishing with 11.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate, while ranking 9th among edge defenders in overall PFF grade with 91.0, despite almost never coming off the field, playing 986 of a possible 1,090 defensive snaps, 90.5% and 3rd most in the league among edge defenders. Still only in his age 24 season, the sky’s the limit for Hutchinson, who should remain one of the top players at his position for years to come.

Aside from Hutchinson, the Lions didn’t have another edge defender play more than 400 snaps for them last season. Josh Paschal (399 snaps), Charles Harris (291 snaps), and Romeo Okwara (249 snaps) ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the team in snaps played among pure edge defenders, while John Cominsky (566 snaps) split time between the edge and the interior. The Lions are hoping that will change this season with the addition of Marcus Davenport in free agency on a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal.

Davenport was a first round pick in 2018 and has shown that level of talent when healthy, totaling a 12.9% pressure rate for his career, while finishing above 70 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. However, he’s also never played more than 533 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 32 games in six seasons in the league. Davenport is still only in his age 28 season and could be an above average starter for the Lions if healthy, something they lacked opposite Hutchinson a year ago, but he’s also likely to miss more time at some point, which is why he had to settle for a 1-year deal in free agency.

Harris and Okwara weren’t retained this off-season, but the Lions still have Josh Paschal and are expecting him to play a big role as a reserve. His 399 snaps last season came in just 12 games, with 5 games missed due to injury, and he was a 2nd round pick in 2022 who still has untapped potential. He hasn’t shown much as a pass rusher in two seasons in the league, totaling just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 22 games, but he’s at least been a solid run stuffer in limited action and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward as a pass rusher in year three, especially if he can stay healthier than he’s been (12 games missed in two seasons in the league).

The Lions are also hoping for more out of another third year edge defender, James Houston, who was limited to 31 snaps in two games due to injury last season. Houston was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and played just 140 snaps as a rookie, but he made the most of them, excelling as a situational pass rusher with 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 18.5% pressure rate, while receiving a 80.2 overall grade from PFF. It’s a very small sample size and Houston is still a relatively unproven player who was not a high draft pick, but, at the very least, the Lions should get more out of him in 2024 than they did in his injury plagued 2023 season. 

John Cominsky will also continue seeing some snaps on the edge like he did a year ago, but he’s mostly just a run stuffer as an edge defender, with a 7.7% pressure rate in 2023 and a 9.4% pressure rate for his career (57 games in five seasons). There are question marks in this group behind Hutchinson, but they at least have upside if Davenport can stay healthy and Paschal and Houston can progress in year three, and Hutchinson is one of the best players in the league at his position, so he elevates this group significantly by himself.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Lions have also drafted a talented interior defender in recent years, taking Alim McNeill in the 3rd round in the 2021 NFL Draft. McNeill took a couple years to develop into the player he was in 2023, but he still had solid grades of 60.1 and 69.8 from PFF on snap counts of 422 and 779 respectively in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 88.5 PFF grade on 559 snaps in 13 games last season, making him PFF’s 6th highest ranked interior defender.

McNeill totaled 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher last season and was equally good as a run stopper. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s also still only in his age 24 season and could easily continue being one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come and, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he could make up for it by being healthier than he was in 2023, when he missed four games.

The rest of this interior defender group was underwhelming a year ago, but the Lions hope they fixed that by signing DJ Reader from the Bengals to a 2-year, 22 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season. Reader has been one of the best run stopping interior defenders in the league in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in run defense grade in 6 of the past 7 seasons, with the exception being a a 2020 campaign in which he was limited to just 5 games by injury and still had a 69.3 PFF grade against the run. 

The big 6-3 335 pound Reader only has 9.5 sacks in 106 career games, but he’s a better pass rusher than that suggests, as he also has 38 hits and a 8.4% pressure rate in his career. Durability has been a concern for him in recent years, costing him 22 games in the past four seasons combined, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline, but he should still be a massive upgrade over Benito Jones, who had a 37.4 PFF grade on 566 snaps last season and was subsequently not retained as a free agent this off-season.

Behind McNeill and Reader, the Lions have John Cominsky, a hybrid player who I talked about in the edge defender section, as well as a pair of young players they are hoping for more out of this year, Levi Onwuzurike and Brodric Martin. Onwuzurike was a 2nd round pick in 2021, but disappointed with a 43.2 PFF grade on 396 snaps as a rookie and then missed the entire 2022 season due to injury, before being limited to 132 snaps in 10 games last season by more injuries. 

Onwuzurike did play significantly better than last season than he did as a rookie though, with a 68.1 PFF grade. Durability is still a concern, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a useful reserve/rotational player as long as he’s healthy, now in his fourth season in the league. Martin, meanwhile, spent his entire 2023 season as a healthy scratch, despite being a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. His career obviously isn’t off to a good start, but he came into the league with a lot of talent and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him develop into a useful reserve in 2024. At the very least, he’ll give them more by default than he did a year ago. With the addition of DJ Reader as a starter opposite Alim McNeill, this is a talented position group, even if their depth is unproven.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Lions used one of their two first round picks in last year’s draft to take linebacker Jack Campbell, which has not been one of their better selections. The value of taking Campbell, who many projected to only be a base package run stopper, in the first round was questioned from the start and those questions haven’t gone away after Campbell finished his rookie season with a 57.3 PFF grade on 637 snaps. Campbell played well against the run with a 75.9 run defense grade from PFF, but he struggled mightily in coverage with a 43.9 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two, but he’ll still probably be a liability in coverage and for a non-rush linebacker to be worth a first round pick in the modern NFL, they have to develop into a well-rounded player who is not a liability in any situation.

Campbell actually finished third among Lions linebackers in snaps played last season. Alex Anzalone led the way with 1,005 snaps. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Anzalone was a big durability concern early in his career in New Orleans, as he missed 26 of a possible 64 games in four seasons there, while maxing out at 525 snaps played in a season, and then in his first season in Detroit in 2021 he struggled mightily in by far the biggest snap count of his career, with a 35.4 PFF grade on 827 snaps, but he’s been better with PFF grades of 59.2 and 68.1 over the past two seasons, while surpassing 1,000 snaps played in both seasons and mostly avoiding injuries. Anzalone is now going into his age 30 season and could either start declining in 2024 or see his role decreased in favor of the second year Campbell, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Anzalone be a capable every down linebacker for the second straight season.

The Lions also have Derrick Barnes, another young linebacker who could see a bigger snap count in 2024. A 4th round pick in 2021, Barnes struggled mightily with a 30.1 PFF grade on 448 snaps as a rookie, but he improved significantly with a 62.3 PFF grade on 346 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022 and carried that over to a bigger role in 2023, with a 62.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps. He’s an unspectacular player and probably won’t ever be anything more than an average starter, but this is an unspectacular Lions’ linebacking corps overall, so Barnes could be deserving of more playing time.

The Lions also have another young linebacker, Malcolm Rodriguez. He was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but wasn’t bad in a big rookie year role, with a 62.8 PFF grade on 611 snaps. With Campbell being added and Barnes taking over a bigger role, Rodriguez was relegated to a nondescript 120 snaps in 12 games played as a reserve last season, but he could earn his way into more playing time in year three. Given the at least decent promise he showed as a rookie, he’s at least a good reserve option. This is an unspectacular group overall, but they at least have some young talent with promise.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Lions have done a great job rebuilding this roster quickly, but the cornerback position was a position of weakness last season, Only one of the five cornerbacks who played more than 100 snaps for the Lions finished with a PFF grade above 60 and that player was Brian Branch, another talented young player the Lions have, a 2023 second round pick who received a 78.1 PFF grade on 736 snaps as a rookie, but a part-time cornerback who could see more time at safety in 2024. 

This off-season, the Lions made improving the cornerback position a priority, trading a third round pick to the Buccaneers for Carlton Davis, who is owed 14.5 million in the final year of his contract in 2024, and then using 1st and 2nd round picks on Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw, a pair of cornerbacks who were both considered good values at their draft slot. The Lions also parted ways with three of the four cornerbacks who saw significant action for them last season and struggled, with only Kindle Vildor (57.6 PFF grade on 200 snaps) returning as a deep reserve who isn’t guaranteed a roster spot. Davis and Arnold are currently expected to start outside, but Rakestraw could see a role as well, especially if Branch plays more safety in 2024.

The veteran Davis will probably be the Lions’ de facto #1 cornerback while Arnold and Rakestraw develop. Davis has been a solid starter for most of his career, but he fell to a 58.2 PFF grade last season, after surpassing 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league, including a career best 70.4 in 2019. Davis is only going into his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also suffered a lot of injuries throughout his career, never playing more than 14 games in a season and missing 23 games total in six seasons in the league, so it’s possible that his injuries have caught up with him and made him age quicker, in which case it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling in 2024. Even if he bounces back, he’ll almost definitely miss more time at some point this season. Still, it wouldn’t be hard for him and the Lions’ two rookie cornerbacks to be an upgrade over what the Lions had at the position a year ago.

The Lions also signed veteran Amik Robertson in free agency and could get something out of Emmanuel Moseley, who is coming off of two injury plagued seasons. Robertson had a much easier path to playing time before Arnold and Rakestraw were drafted, but the 2-year, 9.25 million dollar deal the Lions gave him suggests they value him at least decently, so he could still earn a role even with the two rookies being added, especially if Branch plays more safety this season or if Carlton Davis misses more time with injury. Capable of being on the slot and outside, Robertson has received decent grades of 64.1 and 63.4 from PFF on snap counts of 677 and 674 over the past two seasons respectively and the 2020 4th round pick is only in his age 26 season.

Moseley might be the odd man out in a suddenly deep position group. He flashed potential early in his career in San Francisco with PFF grades of 70.0, 58.3, 68.7, and 70.9 respectively in his first four seasons of playing time, but he never played more than 602 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 22 games in those four seasons, including 12 games missed in his final season in San Francisco with a torn ACL. The Lions took a chance on him in free agency last off-season, only to see him tear his other ACL just two snaps into the season. Still only in his age 28 season, Moseley could have some bounce back potential if he’s healthy, but he’ll start the season at best as a deep reserve. It will likely be between him and Kindle Vildor, a 2020 5th round pick who has struggled throughout his career, for the last spot on the cornerback depth chart, a battle Moseley should be favored in.

The reason Brian Branch could play more safety in 2024 is because the Lions lost Tracy Walker (541 snaps) and CJ Gardner-Johnson (186 snaps) this off-season and didn’t replace them. The Lions still have Kerby Joseph (909 snaps) and Ifeatu Melifonwu (398 snaps) and both will compete for starting jobs, but Branch will probably see more action at this position as well. Kerby was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has made 29 starts in 32 games in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.0 and 57.7 respectively. He hasn’t been more than a capable starter in two years in the league and he took a step back in year two, but he’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward to have his best season yet in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, he should be considered the favorite to keep his starting job.

Melifonwu was also a 3rd round pick, back in 2021. He’s only played 738 snaps total in three seasons in the league, so he doesn’t have the experience that Joseph has, but he flashed a lot of potential with a 85.6 PFF grade in 6 starts as an injury replacement in 2023 and, even if Branch plays more safety this season, Melifonwu could still earn an expanded role in 2024. Melifonwu is a projection to a larger role and was mediocre in his first two seasons before showing his potential last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be at least a capable sub package player. The Lions’ secondary was a bit of a weakness last season, especially at cornerback, but this is a much deeper group than a year ago, even if they lack top end talent besides of Brian Branch.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Lions’ championship window might be closing soon, as it will be tough for them to keep all their talent under the cap long-term, but they are very much in the mix as contenders in 2023, with one of the best rosters in the league. Already one of the best teams in the league a year ago, the Lions are arguably better this season due to off-season additions like DJ Reader, Marcus Davenport, and Carlton Davis, among others. In terms of average annual value of their roster, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage, the Lions rank 4th, up from 23rd a year ago. That kind of spending isn’t sustainable long-term, but it should put them on the short list for Super Bowl contenders in 2024, especially since they play in the much weaker NFC.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC North