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2024 NFL Wild Card Round Picks
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles won three more games than the Packers this season, but they were pretty similar in terms of yards per play differential (+0.97 for the Packers, +0.87 for the Eagles) and first down rate differential (+2.91% for the Eagles, +1.57% for the Packers), which are much more predictive than win/loss records. The Packers also faced a much tougher schedule than the Eagles, with an opponents winning percentage of .533, best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .453 for the Eagles, second worst among playoff qualifiers.
The Eagles did fare much better against other playoff qualifiers though, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread with a +29 point differential, as opposed to 2-5 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS for the Packers, who had a -15 point differential in those games. The Eagles are also in a much better injury situation. Not only are the Eagles only missing one week 1 starter, edge defender Brandon Graham, while the Packers are missing three, cornerback Jaire Alexander, wide receiver Christian Watson, and edge defender Preston Smith (trade), but the Eagles have also had more key players miss time this season who have since returned.
Both teams have been without their starting quarterback for about two and a half games, but the Eagles have also been without All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).
Meanwhile the Packers’ most notable injuries this season aside from the players who remain out are starting wide receiver Romeo Doubs (4 games), every down linebacker Quay Walker (4 games), and talented safety Evan Williams (5 games), which is a much less significant list. In their current injury situations, I have the Eagles favored at home by seven points on my calculated line, despite these two teams being pretty equal statistically, so we’re getting decent line value with the Eagles as only 4.5-point favorites. I don’t think there is quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes,
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Green Bay Packers 20
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5
Confidence: Low
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Washington Commanders (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
The Commanders finished the regular season two games better than the Buccaneers and are underdogs of three points in this game. The public is all over the underdog as a result of that, with about 80% of the action on the Commanders, but this line remains unchanged, as the oddsmakers want as much money on the underdog as possible, for good reason. While the records show the Commanders as the better team, the Buccaneers have the substantial edge in both first down rate differential (+4.33% vs. +2.08%) and yards per play differential (+0.75 vs. +0.31), which are far more predictive than win/loss records.
The Buccaneers have also faced a much tougher schedule. While the Commanders had an opponents’ winning percentage of .436, worst among playoff qualifiers and second worst in the NFL overall, the Buccaneers faced an average schedule at .502. The Buccaneers faced seven playoff qualifiers this season, as opposed to just five for the Commanders, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and the Buccaneers had much more success in those games, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS with a +26 point differential that was 5th best among playoff qualifiers, while the Commanders went just 1-4 straight up and against the spread, with a -30 point differential that was 4th worst among playoff qualifiers.
The Commanders are fully healthy in this game, not missing a single week one starter, but the Buccaneers have had more key injuries than the Commanders have had this season and are also in significantly better injury shape than they have been for most of the season. The Buccaneers are only without two week one starters, wide receiver Chris Godwin and safety Jordan Whitehead, who have missed 10 games and 5 games respectively this season. Key players who missed significant time and have since returned for the Buccaneers include talented slot cornerback Tykee Smith (4 games missed), top cornerback Jamel Dean (5 games missed), stud safety Antoine Winfield (8 games missed), team sack leader Calijah Kancey (5 games missed), top wide receiver Mike Evans (3 games missed), starting tight end Cade Otton (3 games missed), starting wide receiver Jalen McMillan (4 games missed), and starting right tackle Luke Goedeke (4 games missed).
For the Commanders, the most important players who have missed significant time are starting center Tyler Biadasz (2 games missed), starting right tackle Andrew Wylie (3 games missed), starting running back Brian Robinson (3 games missed), top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (6 games missed after being acquired via trade mid-season), and starting interior defender Jonathan Allen (9 games missed), which is significantly less than the Buccaneers, so I would say the Commanders are no more healthy relative to how they have been this season than the Buccaneers are.
Between that and the Buccaneers’ significant statistical edge and their significantly better play against fellow playoff qualifiers, I like the Buccaneers quite a bit at home as only 3-point favorites. If you are still concerned with betting on a team with a worse record as favorites against a team with a better record, teams are just 8-25 straight up and 13-20 ATS in that spot in the post-season all time. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Buccaneers, but it’s a reason not to be concerned betting on them, despite the Commanders having the better record and being underdogs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Washington Commanders 24
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -3
Confidence: High
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
When these two teams met back in week 8, it seemed unlikely that they would meet again in the post-season. The Vikings looked playoff bound at 5-1, but the Rams sat at just 2-4 going into that game. However, that game proved to be a turning point for the Rams, who pulled the upset and then proceeded to win eight of their next ten games overall to clinch the NFC West, before resting their starters for a meaningless week 18 games.
The main reason for the Rams’ improvement was their improved health, as that game against the Vikings was the first game back for their dynamic wide receiver duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who missed most of the early part of the season with injury. The Rams also proceeded to get even healthier down the stretch when their offensive line got healthy, with their expected starting five offensive linemen not playing together until week 13.
The Rams finished the season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), even excluding week 18, but if you look at just weeks 8-17, the Rams were -0.01 in yards per play differential and +1.78% in first down rate differential. If you look at just weeks 13-16, the four games in which they had their offensive line healthy, they had a +0.07 yards per play differential and a 3.29% first down rate differential and went 4-0, including an upset victory over the Bills, which is very relevant as the Rams will have their offensive line healthy for this game and no other significant injuries to speak of.
On the Vikings side, that loss to the Rams could have also been a turning point in their season in a bad way, as they lost stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw with a torn ACL in that game, by far the most notable injury they’ve had all season. However, the Rams mitigated the loss of Darrisaw somewhat by trading for Cam Robinson after that game, and they also got tight end TJ Hockenson back from a torn ACL the following week, which was a boost for this offense and also somewhat mitigated the loss of Darrisaw. As a result, the Vikings have actually gone 9-1 since losing to the Rams, with their one loss coming in week 18 in Detroit.
That being said, you could still argue this team isn’t as good as they were prior to week 8. Their statistical metrics are pretty similar, as the Vikings have a season-long first down rate differential of +2.72% and yards per play differential of +0.31, as compared to +3.07% and +0.14 since week 8. However, the Vikings have played a much easier schedule since week 8, beating just one playoff team over that stretch, a 2-point home victory over the Packers, relevant since they are 2.5-point road favorites in this game against the Rams. The Vikings have also played a much easier schedule overall this season than the Rams, who have an opponents’ winning percentage of .474, as compared to .505 for the Vikings.
Overall, the Rams look like the right side in this one. The Vikings have a significant statistical edge on the season, but that edge goes away when you take into account the Rams’ tougher schedule and better current injury situation. My roster rankings reflect that, giving the Vikings only a half-point edge over the Rams. However, with this line being under a field goal, it’s hard to justify betting on the Rams, especially since this will be essentially a neutral site game for them, with Los Angeles wildfires forcing this game to move to Arizona.
This being a neutral site game is not as big of a deal for the Rams as it would be for most teams, as they lack homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway, (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but it’s still worth noting, especially since the situation back home could prove to be a disruption and distraction for them. I am going to take the Rams for pick ‘em purposes, but I still lean slightly towards the Vikings winning this game straight up and, either way, I don’t think this game is worth betting.
Minnesota Vikings 24 Los Angeles Rams 23
Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5
Confidence: None
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills finished the regular season at 13-4, 13-3 if we don’t include a meaningless week 18 game in which they rested their starters, but, even if we ignore week 18, the Bills had just a first down rate differential of just +1.50% and a yards per play differential of +0.55 this season, which are more significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did lead the league with a +24 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent week-to-week, which is why first down rate and yards per play tend to be much more predictive than anything. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season, leading to them going 20-26 ATS, 22-24 straight up, 11-16 ATS as favorites, and 5-11 ATS with 7 straight up losses as favorites of 4 or more.
The Bills also faced a relatively easy schedule this season, facing just five playoff opponents, tied for the fewest among playoff qualifiers. Making matters worse, the Bills won just two of those games, with no wins by more than nine points, relevant considering this line is nine. The Broncos haven’t had much success against playoff qualifiers either, going 1-5 (excluding their week 18 win over a Chiefs team that was resting their starters), but they don’t need to win to cover this high spread and only one of their matchups against a playoff qualifier resulted in a loss by more than nine points. I wouldn’t make a big bet on the Broncos, but I expect this game to be relatively close.
Buffalo Bills 25 Denver Broncos 20
Pick against the spread: Denver +9
Confidence: Medium
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)
The Texans are arguably the worst team in the playoffs. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also arguably the most injury plagued playoff qualifier, missing five above average week one starters, defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, and guard Shaq Mason.
Making matters worse, all of those except Diggs are relatively recent injuries, going down since week 12, and the Texans have a first down rate differential of -3.17% and a yards per play differential of -0.44 over that stretch. On top of that, the Texans are just 1-5 this season against playoff qualifiers with a -66 point differential in those games, both of which are worst or tied for worst among playoff qualifiers. That one win came all the way back in week 5, when they were a much healthier team.
The Chargers aren’t an overly impressive team, but they have an advantage over the Texans in every aspect. They went just 2-5 against playoff qualifiers with a point differential of -35, which is very underwhelming, but better than the Texans. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Chargers finished the season at +1.12% and +0.10, both better than the Texans’ season-long marks. The Chargers do have some injuries, but none are as significant as any of the five key players the Texans are missing.
The Chargers also have mostly gotten better as the season has gone on, dating back to Justin Herbert returning to full health from an early season leg injury. Herbert had a PFF grade of 55.4 through the first five games of the season, but that has jumped to 94.3 in the twelve games since, best in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks over that stretch. As a team, the Chargers have a first down rate differential of +1.69% and a yards per play differential of +0.28 over that stretch. With the current injury state these two teams are in, the Chargers have a 5-point edge over the Texans in my roster rankings.
The Texans are at home in this game, but the Chargers don’t have much homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway. Since moving there in 2017, the Chargers are 27-34-3 ATS at home with an average point differential of +1.2, as opposed to 39-26-4 ATS on the road with an average point differential of +1.8. Between that and the Chargers’ significant edge in my roster rankings, we are getting some line value with the Chargers as 2.5-point favorites. There isn’t quite enough here for the Chargers to be bettable, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.
Los Angeles Chargers 24 Houston Texans 19
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5
Confidence: Low
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
The Ravens finished the regular season first in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential by a wide margin, with their yards per play differential of +1.66 being significantly better than the second best team at +0.99 and their first down rate differential of +6.36% being significantly better than the second best team at +4.70%. Their offense led the way with a 6.85 yards per play average (2nd best in the league was 6.24) and a 36.22% first down rate (2nd best in the league was 35.90%), but their defense has also been especially good in recent weeks, since making a switch at safety from Marcus Williams to Ar’Darius Washington in week 11.
Since week 11, their defense ranks first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense hasn’t been quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens have a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% since week 11, both best in the league.
That is despite the fact that the Ravens played playoff qualifiers in five of seven games over that stretch. In fact, no playoff qualifier played more other playoff qualifiers this season than the Ravens who played ten. In those ten games, they went 7-3 both straight up and against the spread, with a point differential of +112, best among playoff qualifiers against other playoff qualifiers by a wide margin, with the Chiefs being second at +42 (excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos). The Ravens’ point differential against playoff qualifiers was powered by five wins over other playoff qualifiers by at least 10 points, very relevant considering this line is 9.5.
The Steelers, on the other hand, were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. They did go 4-3 against other playoff qualifiers, but with a point differential of -30, including double digit losses in each of their last three games against playoff qualifiers. The Steelers also finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of -0.35 and a first down rate differential of -2.23%, both worst among playoff qualifiers. This line might seem high at 9.5, but with that big of a gap between these two teams, this line seems more than warranted. Additionally, big favorites like this tend to cover at a high rate in the first round of the playoffs, with favorites of 9.5 or more going 11-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as favorites of exactly 9.5. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but if this big line scares you, that is definitely worth noting.
The Ravens do have one thing working against them that prevents this from being a bigger bet and that is the injury to #1 receiver Zay Flowers. The Ravens have been one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season and, while Flowers is the only key player they are missing for this game, it is still a big absence, particularly when you consider they haven’t dealt with many significant injuries this season.
The Steelers also have one key player absent, guard James Daniels, but he has been out since week 4 and, unlike the Ravens, the Steelers have had many significant injuries this season, as key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) all missed time with injury this season and have since returned. I’m still betting on the Ravens at -9.5, but Flowers’ absence is enough to keep this at a smaller bet and I don’t think I would bet the Ravens at -10.
Baltimore Ravens 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13
Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9.5
Confidence: Medium
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