Pick of the Week
ATL 24 (-3) PIT 16
High Confidence Picks
DET 33 (-4.5) LAR 24
Medium Confidence Picks
KC 26 (-3) BAL 20
PHI 27 (-2) GB 22
MIN 20 (-1.5) NYG 16
LAC 26 (-3) LV 20
SEA 31 (-5.5) DEN 23
TB 24 WAS 23 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
CHI 26 (-3.5) TEN 20
HOU 27 (-2.5) IND 23
MIA 30 JAX 27 (+3.5)
CLE 24 (-2.5) DAL 20
No Confidence Picks
NO 20 CAR 17 (+4)
BUF 30 ARZ 24 (+6.5)
CIN 24 NE 17 (+7.5)
SF 24 NYJ 20 (+4.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-0) in Brazil
The Eagles are favored in this game by 2 points, which might seem like a surprise, considering how these two teams finished last season. While the Packers won seven of their last ten regular season games after a 2-5 start and pulled off a first round upset in the post-season, the Eagles lost five of their last six regular season games after a 10-1 and were upset in the first round. The public seems to not understand why the Eagles are favored, as the majority of the action is on the underdog.
However, the Eagles are much better coached on both sides of the ball this season and hold the overall talent edge in this matchup, possessing significant advantages on the offensive and defensive lines and a slight advantage in the receiving corps, while the Packers only have a slight advantage in the linebacking corps (quarterback, running backs, and secondary are essentially a wash). Given that, this line is actually a little short, as the Eagles are talented enough to be favored by a full field goal in this matchup. On top of that, the better team normally covers in neutral site international games, with favorites going 34-18 ATS all-time. The public may be on the underdog, but it makes perfect sense to me why the Eagles are favored and, with the Eagles only needing to win by a field goal to cover, I like fading the public on this one and putting a small bet on the favorite.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Green Bay Packers 22
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2
Confidence: Medium
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
These two teams last met in the AFC Championship last January and, even though that wasn’t that long ago, a lot has changed since then. In that game, the Ravens were at home and favored by 3.5 points, suggesting they were a noticeably better team, with about 1 in 4 games decided by less than three points. That made sense if you looked at how both teams fared throughout the season, as the Ravens had a +5.56% first down rate differential and a +1.23 yards per play differential in the regular season, while the Chiefs were at +3.55% and +0.82 respectively.
However, the Chiefs hit their stride down the stretch last season, thanks to improved health from tight end Travis Kelce and the breakout of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, as well as improved play from quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their offensive line. That led to the Chiefs pulling the upset in Baltimore and going on to win their second straight Super Bowl in their next game.Now going into 2024, the Chiefs have a good chance to continue that high level of play, especially since they further upgraded their receiving corps with the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, though the latter will be out for this game.
Meanwhile, the Ravens suffered significant losses this off-season, losing a trio of offensive line starters, a trio of starters on defense, and talented defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, none of whom were adequately replaced. The Ravens’ addition of running back Derrick Henry gets a lot of hype, but Henry is going into his age 30 season and might not be a huge upgrade over departed running back Gus Edwards at this stage of his career, especially since Henry won’t have anywhere near the same caliber of offensive line in front of him as Edwards did last season.
The Chiefs are now the ones favored at home in this game, albeit only by 3 points, suggesting they are the slightly better, but not significantly better team. I think the line is a little low though, as the distance between these two teams is enough to justify the Chiefs being favored by 3.5-5.5 points. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as defending Super Bowl Champions playing at home in week 1, a spot in which teams are 12-6-1 ATS since 2005. The Chiefs flopped in this spot a year ago, losing by one at home to the Lions as 4.5-point favorites, but the Chiefs were without both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones in that one and were facing a Lions team that was better than most realized, going on to come within a couple plays of a Super Bowl appearance last season. The Chiefs should have better luck this time around and there is enough here to justify betting them as 3-point home favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs 26 Baltimore Ravens 20
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3
Confidence: Medium
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