Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

The Ravens don’t have the best record in the league, but statistically they have been the best team in the league by a wide margin. Their yards per play differential of +1.50 leads the league, with no other team better than +1.25 and only one other team better than +0.86, while their first down rate differential of +5.75% is significantly better than the second place team at 3.72%. Those metrics tend to be much more predictive going forward than win/loss records. 

The Bengals have been better than their record too, with a positive yards per play differential (+0.44) and a positive first down rate differential (+0.85%), despite a losing record, but statistically I still give the Ravens a nine point edge, given how much better the Ravens have been in both of those metrics. The Ravens have also done that despite facing a much tougher schedule. While both teams have faced each other and have faced the Commanders, Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs, the Bengals’ other games were against the Giants, Patriots, Panthers, and Eagles, who have a combined 12 wins, while the Ravens’ other games were against the Bills, Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Broncos, who have a combined 19 wins.

The Ravens also have a seven and a half point edge in my roster rankings, particularly with the Bengals expected to be without talented wide receiver Tee Higgins and starting left tackle Orlando Brown again this week. Given that and their massive statistical edge, my calculated line has the Ravens favored by 10.5 at home, so we’re getting good value with them. Significantly better teams also tend to cover the spread at home on a short week, even in divisional matchups, as divisional home favorites of 6 points or more are 25-16 ATS on Thursdays historically, as long as both teams are on short rest. I like the Ravens a lot this week.

Update: I don’t normally do this until I’ve had time to fully look at all of the games this week, but it’s unlikely I’ll like any games more than this one, so I am making this a rare Thursday Night Football Pick of the Week.

Injury Update: Orlando Brown may play, but the Bengals’ best interior defender BJ Hill is also highly questionable. For the Ravens, tight end Isaiah Likely is out, but interior defender Travis Jones is set to return. If both Brown and Hill play, that hurts the Ravens chances, but it’s very possible one or both miss this game and, even in a worst case scenario, I still like the Ravens a lot. If both play, my calculated line is Baltimore -9.5 and if both are out my line is Baltimore -11. If only one plays, my calculated line is Baltimore -10. Either way, we’re getting good line value with the Ravens in a good spot.

Baltimore Ravens 34 Cincinnati Bengals 21

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week