Washington Commanders (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

Both of these teams have great records and whoever wins this game will be in first place in the NFC East, but the Eagles have been the better of these two teams. While the Commanders have a solid +1.80% first down rate differential and a solid +0.54 yards per play differential, the Eagles have the significant edge in both metrics at +3.61% and +0.95 respectively, and those metrics tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record. 

The Eagles are also playing even better over the past few weeks, on both sides of the ball. While their defense has gotten better as the season has gone on under the leadership of legendary coordinator Vic Fangio, who has significantly improved this unit in his first year on the job, their offense has also gotten better as it has gotten healthier. Wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert, right tackle Lane Johnson, and left tackle Jordan Mailata are all key players who have missed time with injury this season and all are expected to play in this game together for the first time in a full game since week 1, with Mailata specifically making his return this week after a 4-week absence, a huge re-addition considering he is one of the best players in the league at his position.

With their offense at full strength and their defense getting better every week, the Eagles have a six point edge in my roster rankings and should be favored at home by at least a touchdown. This line is either 3 or 3.5 depending on the sportsbook so, either way, we’re getting significant line value with the Eagles, who are also in a good spot on a short week. Divisional home favorites of 6 points or more are 25-17 ATS on Thursdays historically, as long as both teams are on short rest. It’s hard for interior teams to play on the road on a short week against a superior opponent, even if the two teams are divisional rivals. The Eagles aren’t favored by that many, but they arguably should be, so the logic should apply here. 

The Eagles are also coming off of a blowout win last week and were able to take it easy in the second half, while the Commanders lost a close one to the Steelers, so the Eagles should be better rested going into this game. Teams are 12-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football after a game in which they led by double digits going into the fourth quarter when their opponents lost their previous game by three points or fewer, as long as both teams are on short rest. I locked this one in at 3 because I liked the Eagles a lot at that number, but they’re still bettable at 3.5 if you can’t get 3.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: High