Pick of the Week
DET 30 (-10) CHI 13
High Confidence Picks
WAS 27 (-5.5) TEN 17
JAX 24 (+3.5) HOU 23 Upset Pick +160
Medium Confidence Picks
DAL 17 NYG 16 (+4)
MIN 23 ARZ 21 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
GB 24 (-3) MIA 19
BAL 24 (-2.5) PHI 20
NE 20 (+2.5) IND 19 Upset Pick +115
ATL 21 (+1.5) LAC 20 Upset Pick +105
SEA 24 (+1.5) NYJ 23 Upset Pick +110
DEN 20 (-5.5) CLE 13
No Confidence Picks
KC 24 LV 12 (+13.5)
TB 27 (-6.5) CAR 20
CIN 23 (-2.5) PIT 20
BUF 24 SF 19 (+6)
LAR 26 (-2.5) NO 23
Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (10-1)
The Bears are healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks, particularly on the offensive line, where tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright and guard Teven Jenkins have missed time recently, and on defense, where edge defenders Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor and cornerback Kyler Gordon have missed time recently. They’re a significantly better team as a result of their improved health and almost pulled the upset over the Vikings last week, losing in overtime.
Unfortunately, that overtime loss puts them in a near impossible spot on a short week, as teams have a horrific track record of covering the spread on a short week after an overtime game, going just 3-24 ATS all-time. The Bears would have been in a tough spot anyway, even if they didn’t play overtime last week, as big divisional home favorites tend to cover on a short week, going 21-13 ATS as favorites of 7+ on Thursday as long as both teams are on short rest.
This line is -10 and, as big as that line is, it arguably should be bigger, as the Lions are probably the best team in the league and have a massive edge in first down rate differential (+5.80% vs. -2.03%) and yards per play differential (+0.89 vs. -1.14), as well as a 9-point edge in my roster rankings, even with the Bears’ improved health and the Lions missing left tackle Taylor Decker and cornerback Carlton Davis this week. Between the good spot and the line value, the Lions are a great play this week. I don’t normally like to make my Pick of the Week on Thursday, but I don’t see another game that I like this much, so the Lions are my Pick of the Week this week.
Detroit Lions 30 Chicago Bears 13
Pick against the spread: Detroit -10
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
This game is a tough call from an against the spread perspective, with the Chiefs favored by 13.5 points. On one hand, the Chiefs are 10-1, but haven’t blown out many teams, with just two wins by more than 7 points, one win by more than 10 points, and no wins that would cover this spread. Because of that, a good rule of thumb is to bet them when they’re underdogs or small-to-medium favorites and go against them as big favorites. They are 5-2 ATS this season as long as they aren’t favored by more than six points, but just 0-4 ATS when favorites of more than six. The Chiefs also could be in a look ahead spot here with a much tougher game against the Chargers on deck, as favorites of 7+ cover the spread at just a 44.3% rate as when their next opponent has a better winning percentage than their current opponent by a margin of more than 40%.
On the other hand, the Raiders in their current state are arguably the worst team in the league and this game against them in Kansas City is arguably the Chiefs’ easiest game of the season. The Chiefs have also largely underachieved this season and have the talent to make this game a blowout if they bring their best effort, which they could even in a bad spot, given Patrick Mahomes’ comments about being frustrated with his team’s lack of blowouts, and given that this is a nationally televised game. Even with the Chargers on deck, the Chiefs may want to make a statement in front of the whole country by blowing out a terrible Raiders team. I am still taking the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes because I think the argument for them covering is stronger than the argument for the Chiefs covering, but I don’t have any confidence in this pick.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 Las Vegas Raiders 12
Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +13.5
Confidence: None
Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
The Packers are in a good spot here as a non-divisional home favorite on a Thursday. It’s very tough for teams to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar non-divisional opponent, unless they are significantly better than that opponent, and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites are 50-33 ATS on Thursdays as long as both teams are on short rest. This is also the type of situation that Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel, and the Dolphins have struggled in recently. Tagovailoa is 0-7 in his career when the temperature is less than 40, 3-10 under Mike McDaniel (5-8 ATS) against teams with winning percentages over 50%, and 3-8 in primetime games under Mike McDaniel (3-8 ATS). The Packers, meanwhile, are 23-8 (19-12 ATS) in week 12 or later since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach in 2020, including 14-4 (12-6 ATS) at home.
Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Packers. The Packers have the edge in first down rate differential (+1.00% vs. +0.02%) and yards per play differential (+0.84 vs. -0.09), but the Packers aren’t as good as you would expect in those metrics, given their 8-3 record, and the Dolphins have been playing a lot better since getting Tagovailoa back from injury. In fact, my roster rankings give the Dolphins a 2-point edge, factoring in the Packers missing cornerback Jaire Alexander and wide receiver Romeo Doubs, so it’s hard to justify betting on the Packers as 3-point favorites, even in a great spot. I would still take the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, but I don’t think they’re bettable.
Green Bay Packers 24 Miami Dolphins 19
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3
Confidence: Low
New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
The Cowboys pulled the huge upset in Washington last weekend, but I’m not sure they can bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. Teams tend to fall back to earth after big upsets like that, covering the spread at just a 42.7% rate the week after an upset as underdogs or 10 points or more. The Giants, meanwhile, were embarrassed by the Buccaneers last week and will probably bring a better effort than a Cowboys team that arguably won their Super Bowl last week.
The Cowboys have also been a much worse home team than road team this season, going 4-2 on the road, including wins over likely playoff qualifiers in the Commanders and Steelers, but losing every home game by an average of 23.6 points. On top of that, the Giants might be the better of these two teams, possessing the significant edge in first down rate differential (-0.83% vs. -3.46%) and only slightly trailing in yards per play differential (-1.05 vs. -0.96). Meanwhile, my roster rankings give the Giants a 1-point edge, given all of the Cowboys injuries, most notably the absence of starting quarterback Dak Prescott and talented guard Zach Martin. Between the bad spot the Cowboys are in, their struggles at home, and the fact that the Giants might be the better team, it’s hard to justify the Cowboys being favored by four points in this game, so I like the Giants enough for a small bet this week.
Dallas Cowboys 17 New York Giants 16
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4
Confidence: Medium
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