Los Angeles Rams (7-6) at San Francisco 49ers (6-7)

Both of these teams had impressive results last week. The Rams pulled the upset over the Bills, who are one of the best teams in the league, winning by a final score of 44-42. The 49ers faced a much easier opponent in the Chicago Bears, but blew them out convincingly, winning 38-13, while outgaining them by 4.29 yards per play and converting first downs at a 8.56% higher rate. Of those two results, the Rams’ looks much less fluky. Last week’s victory was the Rams’ sixth in eight games, including victories over the Rams and Seahawks, in addition to that win over the Bills. Meanwhile the 49ers’ win snapped a three game losing streak, including two straight losses by 25+ points, one of which came just one week prior against the same Bills team that the Rams defeated last week.

Injuries are the primary reason for these two teams generally heading in the opposite direction. Last week was only the Rams’ second game all season with their expected starting five offensive linemen all healthy at the same time, while their recent stretch of strong play largely coincides with the return of their two stud wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup in their week 8 victory over the Vikings. Overall, the Rams are one of the healthiest teams in the league right now, as none of the players who are expected to miss this game with injury being key players, with cornerback Cobie Durant, a decent starter, being their most notable absence. That kind of health simply was not the case for this team for most of the season.

For the 49ers, the situation is very different. Among others, the 49ers are most notably missing running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, and potentially defensive end Nick Bosa, all of whom were among the best players in the league at their respective positions during the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl last week. Bosa’s return would be big and it seems like the 49ers will get back linebacker Dre Greenlaw for the first time this season, but Bosa could be on the wrong side of questionable having gotten in just one limited practice this week after missing the past three games and it remains to be seen how much of an impact Greenlaw will make in his first game back from a torn achilles.

The 49ers have been the better team statistically this season, with a first down rate differential of +3.07% and a yards per play differential of +1.27, as opposed to 1.15% and -0.34 respectively for the Rams, but in their current injury situations, these two teams are about even in my roster rankings. Despite that, the 49ers are favored by a full field goal at home in this game, so we’re getting some line value with the Rams. It’s not enough for the Rams to be worth betting, but if Nick Bosa ends up missing his fourth straight game and the line doesn’t move, I would strongly consider a bet on the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: Low