Pick of the Week
TB 28 (-3.5) DAL 20
High Confidence Picks
SEA 24 (+3) MIN 23 Upset Pick +135
Medium Confidence Picks
ATL 23 (-8.5) NYG 10
DET 27 (-6.5) CHI 17
Low Confidence Picks
SF 19 (+1.5) MIA 17 Upset Pick +105
IND 20 TEN 17 (+3.5)
JAX 17 (+2) LV 16 Upset Pick +110
LAR 31 (-3) NYJ 27
No Confidence Picks
ARZ 27 CAR 23 (+4.5)
BUF 31 NE 17 (+14.5)
CIN 27 (-9.5) CLE 17
PHI 24 (-3.5) WAS 19
GB 27 NO 13 (+14.5)
Houston Texans (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Early in the week, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs in this game, as the oddsmakers seemed to be preparing for a Patrick Mahomes absence due to the ankle injury he suffered in last week’s win over the Browns. I locked in a small bet on the money line (+120) at that point because I thought Mahomes had a chance to play, in which case we’d obviously be getting great value with the Chiefs, and, even if he didn’t play, I still thought the Chiefs had a better than 50/50 shot to win, for a number of reasons.
Mahomes is obviously a great quarterback who would be missed, but he hasn’t played up to his usual standard this season. The Chiefs also have a good backup in Carson Wentz and good teams tend to play well with backup quarterbacks to compensate for their quarterback’s absence. The Chiefs also still have a good defense that ranks 7th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed, while their offense ranks just 24th in yards per play and 13th in first down rate. On top of that, the Texans are an overrated team that has not played as well as their record, with seven of their nine victories coming by eight points or fewer. The Chiefs are also overrated with a lot of close victories, but Mahomes is a big part of why they are overrated and, without him, I don’t think they would be overrated.
However, it looks like Mahomes is going to play in this game after all and this line has shifted significantly to compensate, moving six points all the way to Kansas City -3.5. I don’t like the Chiefs nearly that much at that number, as that’s a huge line movement for one player, especially one that will likely be playing at less than 100%. My calculated line with Mahomes in the lineup is Kansas City -5, even before factoring in that he could be significantly limited by injury or suffer a setback and have to come out of the game. That line of -5 isn’t actually that different from -3.5, as games are rarely decided by 4 or 5 points. With that in mind, I actually like the Texans for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for a no confidence pick.
Kansas City Chiefs 20 Houston Texans 17
Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5
Confidence: None
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
The Steelers are typically a good bet as underdogs under Mike Tomlin, going 57-38 ATS since Tomlin’s first season in 2007. However, they do have a strong trend working against them in this spot, as teams are 44-61 ATS as underdogs in a same-season regular season divisional rematch against a team they already beat as underdogs earlier in the season, as it’s very tough to pull an upset against the same team twice in the same season. It’s a small sample size obviously, but the Steelers lost and failed to cover the only time they were in that situation under Mike Tomlin, even as good as they are as underdogs in general.
With that in mind, I think the Ravens are bettable as 6.5-point favorites this week. The Steelers have the better record, but the Ravens have significant advantages in first down rate differential (5.31% vs. -1.79%) and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. -0.14), which are much more predictive than win-loss records. In the Ravens’ loss to the Steelers earlier this season, the Ravens won the first down rate battle by 4.89% and the yards per play differential by 2.00, only losing by two because they lost the turnover battle by two and missed two field goals, which are both much less predictive than yards per play and first down rate. The Ravens also have a 7-point edge in my roster rankings.
It might seem weird to bet a big favorite against a team with a better record, but teams are 140-108 ATS all-time in week 11 or later as favorites of 3.5 or more against a team with a better record than them, as teams tend to be big favorites in that situation for a good reason. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but I wouldn’t worry about the Steelers having the better record when evaluating this game. This isn’t a big bet, but the Ravens are worth betting this week.
Baltimore Ravens 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5
Confidence: Medium
Denver Broncos (9-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
The Broncos got off to a slow start this season, losing their first two games of the season, games in which they lost the first down rate battle by a combined 6.98% and the yards per play battle by a combined 0.50. However, since then, they have won 9 of 12 games, while going 10-2 ATS. This is nothing new for Sean Payton coached teams, as Payton is 146-104-5 ATS in week 3 or later in his career, as opposed to 11-22-1 in weeks 1 and 2. That’s mostly from his time in New Orleans, but, in addition to this season, a similar thing happened last season in Payton’s first season in Denver, although it took a little bit longer, as they started 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS), before going 7-4 (6-5 ATS) the rest of the way.
With the Broncos’ improvement since early in the season, they have moved up to -0.02% in first down rate differential and +0.24 in yards per play differential on the season, despite how terribly they played in the first two weeks of the season. That’s actually slightly above their opponents this week, the Los Angeles Chargers, who are at a -0.28% first down rate differential and a -0.12 yards per play differential. When you add in that the Chargers lack a significant homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds that favor the road team, (26-34-3 ATS at home in Los Angeles since their first season in 2017), we get a little bit of line value with the Broncos at +2.5 when you look at it purely from a statistical standpoint.
However, my roster rankings have the Chargers with a 5-point edge, almost exclusively due to the Chargers massive advantage at the quarterback position with Justin Herbert (4th among quarterbacks on PFF) over Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix (24th among quarterbacks on PFF). Aside from the quarterback position, these two teams are pretty even, but the Chargers’ advantage at the game’s most important position can’t be ignored. The Chargers actually are one of the two teams to cover against the Broncos since week 2, doing so in a 7-point victory as 3-point favorites in week 6, in large part to Herbert (75.8 QBR) significantly outplaying Nix (53.4 QBR).
My calculated line when we look at roster rankings gives the Chargers a bigger advantage than my calculated line when we look at it from a statistical standpoint and my overall calculated line when taking everything into account is Chargers -3, so I am taking the Chargers for pick ‘em purposes, but there is too much conflicting analysis for me to confidently bet the Chargers, especially at home against a coach in Sean Payton who covers at a high rate outside of the first two weeks of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers 20 Denver Broncos 17
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5
Confidence: Low
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