2024 Week 17 NFL Picks

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (8-7) at Chicago Bears (4-11)

The Bears started the season 4-2 across an easy schedule, but have since lost nine straight games and are statistically one of the worst teams in the league overall. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are more predictive than win/loss record, the Bears rank 30th at -3.82% and dead last at -1.23 respectively. They’re also pretty banged up right now, missing four week 1 starters due to injury, including left tackle Braxton Jones, left guard Teven Jenkins, who both went down in last week’s loss to the Lions.

The Seahawks aren’t a great team, but they are slightly above in first down rate differential (+0.55%) and yards per play differential (+0.05) and they are healthier overall, only missing two week 1 starters due to injury. Unfortunately, this line favors the visiting Seahawks by 3.5, which is the worst line to bet, with 3.5 point favorites covering at just a 47.8% rate, lower than any other single line. That’s because about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly 3, more than are decided by 4-6 points combined, meaning in terms of real probability, 3.5 is closer to 6.5 than 2.5. My calculated line is Seattle -6, so we’re still getting some line value with the Seahawks, but not as much as we would be if this line was -3.

The Seahawks are also in a bad spot, with a much tougher game against the Rams on deck, while the Bears are in a good spot in their second straight game as home dogs after a big loss. Teams cover at just a 45.5% rate as favorites when facing an opponent with a winning percentage under 35% when their next opponent will have a winning percentage more than 35% better than their current opponent. That should be slightly neutralized by the fact that the Seahawks probably have to win both of their final two games to make the post-season, but they still might not bring their best effort for this game. Meanwhile, home underdogs like the Bears cover at a 54.8% rate after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs the week before. I am still taking the Seahawks for pick ‘em purposes, but there isn’t nearly enough here for them to be bettable.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Houston Texans (9-6)

The Ravens are only one game better than the Texans in the standings, but they have a huge edge in point differential (+103 vs. +20), first down rate differential (+5.45% vs. +0.50%), and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. +0.16), which are all significantly more predictive than win/loss records. That’s despite the fact that the Ravens have faced a significantly tougher schedule than the Texans, with an opponent’s win percentage of .529, as opposed to .484 for the Texans. 

The Ravens are also much healthier than the Texans. The Ravens have been one of the least injured teams in the league this season, but they’re even healthier now than they have been, as they don’t have a single week one starter absent for this game. The Texans, on the other hand, are missing seven, including wide receiver Tank Dell, safety Jimmie Ward, and right guard Shaq Mason, a trio of key players who went down last week in the Texans’ loss to the Chiefs. In their current injury situations, the Ravens have a 11-point edge over the Texans, giving us a calculated line of Baltimore -9. This isn’t a big bet, but there’s enough line value with the Ravens at -5.5 for this to be worth betting.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

This line favors the visiting Chiefs by 3 points and typically the Steelers are a good bet as underdogs, going 57-39 ATS since Mike Tomlin’s first season in 2007, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs of three or fewer, as they tend to play and win a lot of close games (104-64 in one-score games under Mike Tomlin, the best record in the league over that time period). However, the Chiefs also have played and won a lot of close games this season, going 11-0 in one-score games, and, as a result of that, they have covered at a high rate unless they are big favorites, going 0-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or fewer and 7-3 ATS in their other games.

As a result of all their close victories, both teams are worse in first down rate differential and yards per play differential than their records suggest, as the Chiefs are +1.24% in first down rate differential and -0.15 in yards per play differential, while the Steelers are -2.20% in first down rate differential and -0.23 yards in per play differential. Both of those metrics are more predictive than win/loss record, although both teams have shown the ability to consistently win close games at a much higher rate than average.

Ultimately, this pick comes down to injuries. The Steelers have the advantage in that aspect, even though they’ll be without top cornerback Joey Porter after he got hurt in last week’s game, as they’ll get back top wide receiver George Pickens, talented safety DeShon Elliott, and starting cornerback Donte Jackson from absences of three games, two games, and one game respectively, while the Chiefs could be without stud interior defender Chris Jones for the first time this season, which would a huge absence. My calculated line with Jones out is Kansas City -1 and with him in it’s Kansas City -3. With Jones uncertain, I am going to take the Steelers for a no confidence pick at +3 for now and upgrade it to low confidence if Jones is out and the line doesn’t move.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: None