Buffalo Bills (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (1-0)

This game is one I don’t have a strong opinion on in terms of who is more likely to cover against the spread. The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points at home, suggesting the oddsmakers view these two teams as about even, which I think is accurate. Both teams won their first game of the season at home in close fashion last week, as the Dolphins won by 3 and the Bills won by 6, with both margins failing to cover the spread. 

The Bills had an easier matchup against the Cardinals, while the Dolphins played the Jaguars, but the Bills were more impressive in their victory, with a +7.59% first down rate differential and a +1.57 yards per play differential, as opposed to -5.83% and +0.81 respectively for the Dolphins. While the Bills game might not have been close if not for a Cardinals kickoff return touchdown and a -20.5% third down rate margin by the Bills, both of which won’t happen every week, the Dolphins might not have been able to come back and win if not for scoring an 80-yard touchdown, recovering a red zone fumble, and a posting +30% third down rate margin, three things which also won’t happen every week. 

These two teams are about even in my roster rankings as well. The Dolphins have significant advantages in the receiving corps, linebacking corps, and secondary, with the Bills notably missing their top linebacker Matt Milano and talented slot cornerback Taron Johnson due to injury, but the Bills have a significant advantage at quarterback, which is enough to cancel out the Dolphins three position group advantages. 

Ultimately, which team I pick here will come down to the status of Dolphins running back De’Von Achane, who is considered a gametime decision. If he’s out, the Bills would also have a significant advantage at running back, with the Dolphins already being without Raheem Mostert, their other talented running back. For now, I am picking the Dolphins because it seems like Achane is more likely than not to play after participating in Wednesday’s walkthrough and, if he plays, the most likely outcome of this game is a Dolphins victory by a field goal, which would cover this spread as long as it stays below three, but if Achane is out, I would flip this pick to Buffalo unless the line shifts significantly. Either way, I anticipate this being a no confidence pick.

Miami Dolphins 27 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: None