New England Patriots (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

Arguably the most difficult spot for a team to cover the spread is when they have to play on a short week after playing an overtime game the week before, which is the situation the Patriots find themselves in, losing in overtime to the Seahawks last week and now facing the Jets on the road in New York on Thursday Night Football. In total, teams are just 3-23 ATS on Thursday nights after an overtime game, losing against the spread by a whopping nine points on average. 

The line, which favors the Jets by 6, hasn’t taken that into account. In fact, despite that powerful trend coming into play, this line has dropped from a full touchdown a week ago on the early line down to 6 this week, which is a pretty meaningful shift considering about 1 in 10 games are decided by exactly a touchdown. Even if that trend weren’t taken into account, this line seems too short, as the Jets are at home and have a seven point edge in my roster rankings. 

The Jets’ results on the field this season haven’t looked great, but they traveled cross country for a night game in San Francisco against one of the best teams in the league week 1 and then played in an obvious trap game spot on the road week 2 against the Titans, in a game sandwiched in between their tough week 1 game and this divisional rivalry on a short week. The Jets might not have looked good last week, but they still won by a full touchdown, which covered the spread last week and would cover the spread again this week, and now they’re the one in the better spot with the Patriots likely to be exhausted after playing extra time last week. 

This is also probably the easiest game of the season for the Jets thus far regardless of the situation, as they are playing their first home game of the season and playing a team in the bottom third of the league. I don’t expect them to have too much trouble here. The Jets are worth a big bet as long as this line stays under a touchdown. Even if it moves to seven, the Jets are still bettable, albeit for a smaller amount.

New York Jets 24 New England Patriots 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -6

Confidence: High