Dallas Cowboys (1-2) at New York Giants (1-2)

This line favored the visiting Dallas Cowboys by a full touchdown last week on the early line, but with the Giants pulling the upset in Cleveland as 6.5-point underdogs last week and the Cowboys losing to the Ravens in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score, this line has now shifted down to 5.5. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like that unless they involve an injury, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but I think this line is still too high, as the Cowboys probably aren’t good enough to be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.

My roster rankings have the Cowboys a half point below average and both DVOA and my efficiency rating have them as a well below average team, as they are 22nd in DVOA at -15.5% and 25th in efficiency rating at -4.30 (-0.76 yards per play differential, -3.43% first down rate differential). Both of those metrics are actually below the Giants, who rank 21st in DVOA at -15.2% and 23rd in efficiency rating at -3.70 (-0.51 yards per play differential, -1.50% first down rate differential). I still think the Cowboys are the better team because they’re more talented and those ratings are a small sample size, but they’re not so much better to justify them being favored by this many points on the road. My roster rankings have the Cowboys 4.5 points ahead of the Giants and, at most, they should only be favored by a field goal on the road.

The Cowboys are also in a tough spot with a much bigger game against the currently 3-0 Steelers on deck and favorites cover at just a 43.9% rate against teams with winning percentages of 33.3% or less when they next face an opponent with a winning percentage of 75% or more. The Giants aren’t in a good spot either because they just pulled a big upset and now are big underdogs again, with underdogs of 4 or more covering at just a 43.6% rate after winning straight up as underdogs of 4 or more the previous week, but the bad spots both teams are in should cancel out, leaving us with the aforementioned line value with the Giants. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Giants’ chances to keep this one close.

Dallas Cowboys 23 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +5.5

Confidence: Medium