Denver Broncos (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

This game is a tough call. The Saints have been the slightly better team this season, possessing the edge in first down rate differential. The Broncos have the better defense, allowing a 27.50% first down rate and 4.44 yards per play, as opposed to 30.85% and 6.07 for the Saints, but the Saints have a better offense, with a 31.35% first down rate and 5.33 yards per play, as opposed to 25.28% and 4.69 for the Broncos, and offensive production tends to be much more predictive and consistent week-to-week. In my efficiency metric that weighs offensive performance higher than defensive performance, the Saints have a significant edge at -0.53 to -4.25.

However, that’s mostly because the Saints played so well in the first two games of the season, when they won both games by a combined 62 points, and they have declined significantly since then, losing their last four games, in large part due to injuries, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. In total, the Saints are missing starting quarterback Derek Carr, a trio of starting offensive linemen in Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, and Cesar Ruiz, their two best wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the versatile Taysom Hill, starting linebacker Pete Warner, and starting safety Will Harris. 

The Broncos are missing top cornerback Patrick Surtain, starting linebacker Alex Singleton, and starting wide receiver Josh Reynolds, while starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey and starting edge defender Baron Browning are questionable, but overall they are the much healthier team and, overall, possess a five point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we are getting a little bit of line value with the Broncos as 2.5-point road favorites, but the Saints are also in a better spot, as home underdogs cover the spread at a 56.7% rate after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs the previous week. I am taking the Saints for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Update: This line has shifted to 3, probably because McGlinchey and Browning are playing, but I already assumed they would, so that doesn’t change my projection at all. I like +3 a lot more than +2.5, so I am boosting this to a low confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 17 New Orleans Saints 16

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Low