Houston Texans (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)

This line favors the Jets by 1.5 at home, suggesting these two teams are about even. That might be surprising, given that the Jets are 2-6 and the Texans are 6-2, but these two teams are much closer than that suggests. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss record, the Texans are at +0.57 and +2.16% respectively, while the Jets are at +0.41 and +0.66%. Five of the Texans’ six wins have come by one-score, while four of the Jets’ six losses have come by one-score, so if a couple things had gone differently these two teams could have very similar records. 

The Jets also enter this game as the healthier team, with the Texans most notably missing wide receivers Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, who are not just their two best wide receivers, but two of the better wide receivers in the league.  Given the injury situations of these two teams, my calculated line is very similar to the actual line, favoring the Jets by two. The Jets are also in a better spot at home on a short week. That benefit is minimized in divisional matchups or when the road team is the significantly better team, but non-divisional home favorites cover at a 59.8% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, which applies to the Jets in this game. That effect is more pronounced when the home team is big favorites, but home favorites of three or less still cover at a 56.2% rate. 

Also, if you’re worried about picking a 2-6 team as favorites against a 6-2 team, teams with winning percentages below 30% are actually 14-5 ATS as favorites against teams with winning percentages above 70% in week 5 or later over the past 35 seasons. There’s not quite enough for the Jets to be bettable this week, but they should be the right side and they’re a good contrarian play in pick ‘em leagues, with about 80% of people on the Texans because of their record.

New York Jets 26 Houston Texans 23

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -1.5

Confidence: Low