High Confidence Picks
Medium Confidence Picks
BUF 23 (+1.5) DEN 20 Upset Pick +105
Low Confidence Picks
2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game is in Denver rather than Buffalo, which matters somewhat, but not nearly enough for a 9.5-point line movement. It would also seem the Broncos are better this year than last year, going from 10-7 to 14-3, while the Bills are worse, going from 13-4 to 12-5. However, that might not be as true as it seems.
The Bills have fallen from a +157 point differential in 2024 to a +116 point differential this season, but, overall, their team is very similar to a year ago. Of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Broncos, at least 15 and up to 18 of 22 are expected to play in this game, depending on the final injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, actually had a better point differential last season (+114) compared to this season (+90), as the biggest reason for their improved record this season is that they went from 1-6 in one-score games to 9-2. Meanwhile, of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Bills, 16 of 22 are expected to play in this game.
Two of the six who won’t play for the Broncos this season that played last year are center Luke Wattenburg and safety Brandon Jones, who both got hurt down the stretch this season and could prove to be big absences in this game. Meanwhile, the Bills are relatively healthy. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed 5 games this season, right tackle Spencer Brown missed 3, interior defender Daquan Jones missed 5, and fellow interior defender Ed Oliver missed 15, but only Oliver is at risk of missing this game. At the very least, I like betting on the money line this week, as the Bills should be favored in this game, but I may end up betting on the spread as well, depending on the final injury report.
Update: Ed Oliver is playing, which is enough for me to increase this to a medium confidence bet.
Buffalo Bills 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5
Confidence: Medium
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick
Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6)
These two teams finished with similar records, with the Rams only winning one more game than the Bears, but statistically there is a big gap between these two teams. While the Bears mostly played close games, winning by more than one score in just 4 of their 12 wins and going 8-4 in one score games, the Rams won by multiple scores in 8 of their 13 and went just 5-5 in one score games. As a result of that, the Rams enter this game with a +175 point differential, including the first round of the playoffs, while the Bears have just a +30 point differential.
The difference between these two teams is even bigger than point differential shows though, as the Bears needed a league leading +20 turnover margin to get to that point differential, while the Rams have a more modest +12 turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams that had great turnover margins in the regular season tend to not be able to keep that up in the post-season. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season.
In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive, the Rams have a huge edge with a +5.49% first down rate differential, as opposed to -1.00% for the Bears, and a +0.95 yards per play differential, as opposed to -0.30 for the Bears. The Rams also played a tougher schedule, playing five games against remaining playoff teams, as opposed to just one for the Bears, and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Rams rank first and have about a 10-point edge over the 19th ranked Bears.
The Rams have been underwhelming compared to how they barely earlier this season in recent weeks, but they haven’t been fully healthy with left tackle Alaric Jackson (1 game missed), right guard Kevin Dotson (3 games missed), safety Quentin Lake (7 games missed), and wide receiver Davante Adams (3 games missed) all missing time in recent weeks, after the Rams had minimal injuries early in the season. However, all four of those players are expected to play this week, with only Dotson questionable, and, overall, the Rams are very healthy for this point in the season.
The Bears, on the other hand, continue to be plagued by injuries as they have been all season. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed), wide receiver Rome Odunze (5 games missed), and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed) and Kyler Gordon (14 games missed) all have returned in recent weeks from significant absences, but linebacker TJ Edwards and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo went down for the season in last week’s win over the Packers, injuries that will likely hurt them against a much tougher opponent this week.
This line does suggest the Rams are the significantly better team, favoring them by 4 points on the road, but I don’t think this line is high enough, especially when considering that the Rams have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, are 47-39 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but I will increase this bet if I get confirmation that Kevin Dotson will play and this line doesn’t move significantly.
Update: Dotson is playing. I am upgrading this to a high confidence pick.
Los Angeles Rams 34 Chicago Bears 24
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -4
Confidence: High
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick
San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
This is the third time these two divisional opponents have met this season. The 49ers opened the season with a 17-13 win in Seattle week 1, in which the 49ers won the first down rate battle by 0.73 and the yards per play battle by 5.51%. In week 18, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in San Francisco 13-3, in a game in which the Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 11.90% and the yards per play battle by 1.27. Common sense would suggest that the more recent of the two matchups between these teams holds more predictive value and it is true that when two teams that split the season series meet for a third time in the post-season the team who won the more recent matchup tends to win more often than not, but maybe not as often as you would think, as teams are just 14-9 in that spot and just 11-12 ATS.
That alone isn’t a reason to pick the 49ers to cover, but I think this spread is a little inflated based on the recent matchup between these two teams, with the Seahawks favored by 7 points, after being favored by 2.5 points week 18. This game is in Seattle rather than San Francisco, but that much of a little movement is more than just the location change. The 49ers won’t have George Kittle for this game and the Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, but the 49ers also get back left tackle Trent Williams, who is much better than Cross and more important to this offense than Kittle, and Kittle was not 100% in the previous matchup either. On top of that, the 49ers are likely to get back wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, though the loss of starting safety Ji’Ayir Brown does hurt them. Overall, I have this line calculated at Seattle -6, so we’re getting some line value with the 49ers, but not nearly enough for them to be worth betting.
Seattle Seahawks 20 San Francisco 49ers 14
Pick against the spread: San Francisco +7
Confidence: Low
Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3)
The Patriots enter this game with significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.36% vs. +1.93%) and yards per play differential (+1.10 vs. +0.48) compared to the Texans, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records. The Texans have faced a much tougher schedule, but, even when schedule is taken into account, the Patriots have about a 3-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential.
A big reason for that is schedule adjusted efficiency weights offensive performance higher than defensive performance, because offensive performance tends to be more consistent week-to-week. The Texans have a big edge on defense, about 5.5 points, but the Patriots have an even bigger edge on offense, about 7 points, and that tends to be more predictive of future winning. On top of that, the Texans have the biggest injury in this game, as their top wide receiver Nico Collins is expected to be out due to concussion, while the Patriots are close to fully healthy. Given all of that, this line is a little short, favoring the Patriots at home by only 3 points. My calculated line is Houston -5.5. There isn’t quite enough line value here for the Patriots to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.
New England Patriots 21 Houston Texans 16
Pick against the spread: New England -3
Confidence: Low
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