Pick of the Week
LAR 34 (-8) ARZ 17
High Confidence Picks
GB 31 (-6.5) CHI 20
BUF 34 CIN 31 (+6.5)
TB 23 NO 20 (+8.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
IND 23 (-1.5) JAX 20
LAC 20 (+2.5) PHI 17 Upset Pick +120
Low Confidence Picks
MIN 24 (+1.5) WAS 23 Upset Pick +105
SEA 25 ATL 20 (+7)
DEN 20 LV 13 (+8.5)
MIA 24 NYJ 23 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
KC 21 (-3.5) HOU 16
CLE 14 (-3.5) TEN 9
BAL 22 PIT 17 (+6)
Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) at Detroit Lions (7-5)
The Cowboys started the season 3-5-1, but they have won their last three games since their bye week in impressive fashion, blowing out the Raiders and then pulling upsets over the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys have had an explosive offense all season, ranking 3rd in both yards per play and in first down rate on the season, while their defense, which was a huge problem before the bye, has been significantly better since adding Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson via trade and getting safety Donovan Wilson, safety Malik Hooker, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, and cornerback Shavon Revel back from injury.
Expecting the Cowboys’ big turnaround on defense, I have made the Cowboys my Pick of the Week in each of the past three weeks. Unfortunately, the secret is now out that they are much better than they were earlier in the season, so we aren’t getting as much line value with them as we used to, but I think there is still a little bit more value to be had with them. This week, they are 3-point underdogs in Detroit against a Lions team that is going in the opposite direction, losing 4 of their last 7 after a 4-1 start, in large part due to injuries, particularly tight end Sam LaPorta, guard Christian Mahogany, and safety Kerby Joseph, a trio of talented starters. The Lions could also be without top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, starting center Graham Glasgow, and fill-in guard Kayode Awosika this week, as all three are legitimately questionable.
That being said, I don’t think the Cowboys are quite worth betting, mostly due to the Lions’ history after a loss in the Dan Campbell era, as they are 22-10 ATS in that spot since he took over in 2021, outperforming the spread by an average of 3.9 points or game, including a 3-1 ATS record off of a loss this season. The Cowboys are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but that strong trend working against them is enough to deter me from betting on them.
Update: This line has increased to 3.5. That is probably due to optimism that Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing, but he will undoubtedly be limited if he does play and I already factored in him playing at less than 100% into my calculated line, so that doesn’t change anything for me. I am a lot more comfortable betting the Cowboys at +3.5 than +3 and if St. Brown happens to not play this line will look like a steal. I am putting a small play on the Cowboys for now and would increase it depending on final inactives and/or where this line ends up.
Detroit Lions 28 Dallas Cowboys 27
Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
DAL 26 (+3.5) KC 24 Upset Pick +140
High Confidence Picks
GB 24 (+3) DET 20 Upset Pick +125
Medium Confidence Picks
NA
Low Confidence Picks
IND 19 (-3) HOU 13
SF 24 CLE 20 (+5.5)
ATL 23 (-2.5) NYJ 20
BUF 23 PIT 21 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
SEA 21 (-11.5) MIN 9
MIA 28 NO 24 (+5.5)
JAX 26 TEN 20 (+6.5)
TB 24 ARZ 20 (+4.5)
DEN 26 (-5.5) WAS 20
New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2)
The Giants have a 2-10 record and the Patriots have a 10-2 record, but the Giants have five losses by one score, despite facing arguably the toughest schedule in the league, while the Patriots have six wins by one score, despite facing arguably the easiest schedule in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, I only have a 4.5-point gap between these two teams and these two teams are even closer than that suggests in their current state.
The Patriots have been relatively injury free this season, but will be without a pair of starting offensive linemen in Will Campbell and Jared Wilson as well as talented interior defender Milton Williams in this game, which is the most injuries they have had at any one point this season. Meanwhile the Giants have dealt with a lot of injuries this season and are relatively healthy this week, with quarterback Jaxson Dart, running back Tyrone Tracy, offensive tackles Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eleumunor, center John Michael Schmitz, safeties Jevon Holland and Tyler Nubin, and cornerbacks Paulson Adebo and Cor’Dale Flott all in the lineup after missing time earlier this season. My calculated line has the Patriots only favored by 3.5 points here at home, so we are getting great line value with the Giants as 7.5 point underdogs. This should be another close game for two teams that have played a lot of close games this season.
New England Patriots 23 New York Giants 20
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5
Confidence: High
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
This line, favoring the Chargers by 10 points, is too high. The Chargers’ offense has been significantly worse this season in games in which their top offensive lineman Joe Alt doesn’t play the whole game, scoring 19.9 points per game, as opposed to 26.8 when he does play. The Raiders have a terrible offense, but their defense has actually been pretty solid this season, ranking 12th in yards per play allowed and 7th yards per play allowed, so they should be able to hold the Chargers to a pretty low point total, which should allow the Raiders to keep this game close as big underdogs.
When these two teams met earlier this season, the Chargers only won 11, but that was with Alt, in a game in which the Raiders did not have stud tight end Brock Bowers at full strength. The Chargers were on the road in that game and now are at home, but that doesn’t really benefit them, as they are 35-34 (29-36 ATS) at home since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, as opposed to 39-36 (40-31 ATS) on the road. It is very likely there will be more Raiders fans in the crowd than Chargers fans. The Raiders are worth a big bet this week at +10 and are worth a bet at +9.5 as well.
Los Angeles Chargers 17 Las Vegas Raiders 10
Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +10
Confidence: High
Los Angeles Rams (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)
The Rams are currently the slight Super Bowl favorite, but they actually may still be a little underrated, as I think they are clearly the best team in the league. They rank 3rd in yards per play differential (+1.05), 1st in first down rate differential (+6.22%) and 1st in my schedule adjusted efficiency rank. My roster rankings have them as even better than that, ranking them close to 3 full points above any other team in the league.
They are favored by 10 points on the road in Carolina, but this line should be even higher, especially considering the Panthers are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks, a starting safety, two of their top-3 linebackers, and a pair of starting offensive linemen due to injuries and suspension. My calculated line is Rams -13.5, giving us enough line value for the Rams to be worth betting at -10. This isn’t a big play, but the Rams are 8-3 ATS this season and I think there is still some line value with them. They should be able to get their 7th double digit victory of the season.
Update: Some -9.5s have showed up this morning. I would do a bigger bet at that number.
Los Angeles Rams 27 Carolina Panthers 13
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -9.5
Confidence: High
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Detroit Lions (7-4)
The Lions managed to come back and beat the Giants in overtime last week, but now they are in a very tough spot, as teams are just 7-25 ATS all-time on Thursdays after playing in an overtime game the previous week. That trend is powerful enough that betting against teams in that spot is almost an auto-bet, unless there is a good reason not to. In this case, there is not, as we would be getting some line value with the Packers as 3-point road underdogs even without that trend being taken into account.
This line suggests that the Lions are a slightly better team to the Packers, but they trail the Packers significantly in first down rate differential (+4.53% vs. +2.36%), while only leading the Packers slightly in yards per play differential (+1.02 vs. +0.93). The Packers are also the healthier team, while the Lions are missing key players like tight end Sam LaPorta, safety Kerby Joseph, and guard Christian Mahogany. I like them a lot as field goal underdogs and would bet them at +2.5 as well.
Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +125
Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3
Confidence: High
Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
This is probably the most confusing line of the week. In other cases when my calculated line is very different from the actual line, I can understand why, but in this case I genuinely don’t understand it. The Eagles have just one win by more than a touchdown this season and it came against a 2-win Giants team. Despite that, the Eagles are favored by a touchdown in this game against the 8-3 Bears.
The Bears are not as good as their record, going 6-1 in one-score games, but the same can be said of the Eagles. The Bears rank 24th in first down rate differential (-1.92%) and 20th in yards per play differential (-0.36), but the Eagles rank just 19th (-1.24%) and 16th (-0.20) respectively in those two metrics. The Eagles have had the harder schedule, but are only about a point better than the Bears in my schedule adjusted efficiency.
My roster rankings also only have these two teams about a point apart. The Eagles are better since getting Nolan Smith back from injury and since adding Jaelen Phillips via trade, but the Bears seem likely to get their top cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back from injury. Even if they don’t, the Bears are still worth a big bet at +7 since this figures to be yet another close game for two teams that have played a lot of close games.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 20
Pick against the spread: Chicago +7
Confidence: High
Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
The Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back from an extended absence in this game and there is a good chance he is the healthier of these two quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson has played at far less than his usual level since returning from a hamstring injury four weeks ago. In addition to his hamstring injury, Jackson is apparently also dealing with knee and ankle injuries. His lack of health is most apparent in his rushing production, as he has averaged just 17.7 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, down significantly from the 58.5 yards per start he averaged in his career prior to the last four weeks.
The Bengals have a lot of issues and, even with Burrow returning and Jackson playing at less than 100%, we aren’t getting a ton of line value with the Bengals, who I have calculated as 6.5-point underdogs, but Burrow has historically done great as significant underdogs, going 14-3 ATS as 3.5+ underdogs in his career, making him close to an auto-bet in this situation. That trend is even more significant than that suggests because, of those three ATS losses, two came in his rookie year and one came in a game in which he got hurt in the second quarter. Barring a reaggravation of his foot injury, he should be able to keep this game close and it’s very possible that his counterpart on the other side is more likely to leave this game early due to injury.
Baltimore Ravens 30 Cincinnati Bengals 27
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +7
Confidence: High
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
The Cowboys have been my Pick of the Week the past two weeks and I like them a lot again this week. The conventional thinking is that they have a great offense and a terrible defense and, in fact, they do rank 3rd in my schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in my schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. However, offensive efficiency is more predictive on a season long basis than defensive efficiency and, on top of that, the Cowboys’ defense has gotten a lot better in recent weeks.
Since their week 9 bye, the Cowboys have gotten safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, cornerback Shavon Revel, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown back from injury, while adding defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson via trade. That’s legitimately six starters that they have now that they didn’t for most or all of the first half of the season and that makes their defense a lot better than it was, particularly the addition of Williams, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The Cowboys also have great special teams and, overall, have a top-10 roster, which is not how they are being talked about, even after a blowout win in Las Vegas and an upset win over the Eagles.
The Cowboys’ schedule gets even harder this week with the Chiefs coming to town, but the Cowboys aren’t far behind the Chiefs in my roster rankings and could still keep this one close or even pull another upset, as 3.5-point home favorites, especially since the Chiefs are in a terrible spot, playing on Thursday after playing in an overtime game the previous week. Teams are just 7-25 ATS in this spot all-time, as it is very tough to play on a short turnaround after a long game. The Cowboys are my Pick of the Week again this week.
Dallas Cowboys 26 Kansas City Chiefs 24 Upset Pick +140
Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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