New York Jets (2-7) at New England Patriots (8-2)

There is a big discrepancy in these two teams’ records and this line, favoring the Patriots by 13, reflects that, but the Patriots have not been as good as their record suggests, while the Jets have not been as bad. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are more predictive than win/loss record, the Patriots rank 14th and 10th at +0.26% and +0.43 respectively. That’s despite having the easiest schedule in the league thus far. When strength of schedule and special teams are taken into account, the Patriots rank just 14th in overall efficiency and my roster rankings line up with that, as they rank 15th.

The Jets, meanwhile, have played a lot of close games, with only two losses by more than seven points, which is relevant considering this line is all the way up to 13. On top of that, the Jets have managed to keep most of their games close despite the fact that they have a league worst -10 turnover margin, in large part due to a league worst 21.05% fumble recovery rate, both of which are extremely volatile on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Jets rank 22nd (-2.05%) and 24th (-0.50) respectively. When strength of schedule and special teams are taken into account, the Jets rank 23rd in overall efficiency. 

The Jets traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams last week and now they are without top wide receiver Garrett Wilson due to injury, so my roster rankings have them ranked lower than the statistics do, as they rank 29th in my roster rankings, but we’re still getting significant line value with them at +13. This would be a bigger bet, but the Jets are not in a great spot, as teams are 12-23 ATS in their second game in five days after a bye, as long as their opponent is not in the same situation. Still, even with that trend taken into account, my calculated line is New England -9, so we’re getting enough line value with the Jets to bet on them at +13.

Early Locked Bets: BUF -5.5

On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, has fallen on hard times and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 15

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +13

Confidence: Medium