Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) at Detroit Lions (7-5)

The Cowboys started the season 3-5-1, but they have won their last three games since their bye week in impressive fashion, blowing out the Raiders and then pulling upsets over the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys have had an explosive offense all season, ranking 3rd in both yards per play and in first down rate on the season, while their defense, which was a huge problem before the bye, has been significantly better since adding Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson via trade and getting safety Donovan Wilson, safety Malik Hooker, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, and cornerback Shavon Revel back from injury.

Expecting the Cowboys’ big turnaround on defense, I have made the Cowboys my Pick of the Week in each of the past three weeks. Unfortunately, the secret is now out that they are much better than they were earlier in the season, so we aren’t getting as much line value with them as we used to, but I think there is still a little bit more value to be had with them. This week, they are 3-point underdogs in Detroit against a Lions team that is going in the opposite direction, losing 4 of their last 7 after a 4-1 start, in large part due to injuries, particularly tight end Sam LaPorta, guard Christian Mahogany, and safety Kerby Joseph, a trio of talented starters. The Lions could also be without top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, starting center Graham Glasgow, and fill-in guard Kayode Awosika this week, as all three are legitimately questionable.

That being said, I don’t think the Cowboys are quite worth betting, mostly due to the Lions’ history after a loss in the Dan Campbell era, as they are 22-10 ATS in that spot since he took over in 2021, outperforming the spread by an average of 3.9 points or game, including a 3-1 ATS record off of a loss this season. The Cowboys are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but that strong trend working against them is enough to deter me from betting on them.

Update: This line has increased to 3.5. That is probably due to optimism that Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing, but he will undoubtedly be limited if he does play and I already factored in him playing at less than 100% into my calculated line, so that doesn’t change anything for me. I am a lot more comfortable betting the Cowboys at +3.5 than +3 and if St. Brown happens to not play this line will look like a steal. I am putting a small play on the Cowboys for now and would increase it depending on final inactives and/or where this line ends up.

Detroit Lions 28 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium