Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

The Buccaneers are 7-6, but they rank 27th in yards per play differential (-0.64) and 23rd in first down rate differential (-1.88%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their record is largely the result of going 5-0 in games decided by 3 points or fewer and they have just two wins by more than 3 points, which is relevant, with this line at 4.5. The Falcons are only 4-9 and might seem like the kind of team that the Buccaneers can beat by more than 5 points, but they have been much better than their record in yards per play differential, ranking 11th at +0.21, and first down rate play differential, ranking 14th at +0.31%. The Falcons are worth a bet and, if the line stays around the same and either left tackle Tristan Wirfs or wide receiver Mike Evans do not return for the Buccaneers, I would make this an even bigger bet.

Early Locked Bets: NO +3, CIN +3, LV +11.5

Update: Evans and Wirfs are playing, but Evans may be on a pitch count and the Buccaneers are also missing tight end Cade Otton and safety Tykee Smith. Despite that, this line has moved up to 6. I am upping this to a high confidence bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6

Confidence: High