2025 Week 16 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)

The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against the Giants and Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Commanders have played three games against the Giants and Raiders this season and are 3-0 in those three games, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota starting two of those three games. That suggests that, even with Mariota remaining under center, the Commanders are on a different level than the only two teams the Eagles have beaten by more than seven points this season. The Eagles’ two wins by more than seven points also came at home, while this game is in Washington. 

All of that suggests that we are getting some line value with the Commanders as 7-point home underdogs. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is enough for the Commanders to be worth betting, given that they will be playing without talented left tackle Laremy Tunsil in this game for the first time all season, which figures to be a massive loss for this offense. The Commanders are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is only a low confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Commanders 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)

A couple weeks ago, I bet on the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears and they covered, but a lot has changed in the past couple weeks. For one, while the Packers did cover in that game, it was closer than I would have liked, as the Packers needed a late game interception to seal a 7-point victory. The Bears then followed that game up by playing arguably their most impressive game of the season, dominating the Browns by a score of 31-3. The Browns are obviously not a tough opponent, but it was by far the biggest margin of victory that the Bears had in any of their games, as they previously had a lack of blowout victories, despite an overall relatively weak schedule. 

Meanwhile, the Packers lost in Denver last week and, more importantly, they had several key players suffer major injuries. Their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is out for the season, while 10 other players are listed questionable this week on their injury report. Most notably, their top running back Josh Jacobs, their best offensive lineman Zach Tom, and talented starting safety Evan Williams did not practice all week and are likely on the wrong side of questionable. 

The Bears are missing Luther Burden, who was their leading receiver in the first matchup, but they could be getting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds back from a 4-game absence and, even if they don’t, they obviously are in a much better injury position than the Packers are, relative to a couple weeks ago. Additionally, this game is obviously in Chicago, whereas the previous matchup was in Green Bay, where the Packers have a big advantage late in the season. In week 10 or later, the Packers are 22-11 ATS at home since head coach Matt LaFleur’s first season in 2019, but they do not have the same advantage on the road. 

None of this is to say I want to bet the Bears this week. The Packers still have significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.31% vs. -0.26%) and yards per play differential (+0.88 vs. -0.36). However, despite that, I would take them on this even line for pick ‘em purposes, given the current injury state of both teams. Depending on the final inactives and where this line ends up, I may change this pick, but, for now, the Bears are my pick.

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

Both of these teams are 11-3, but the Rams have a significant edge in first down rate differential, +7.71% vs +5.54%, which is much more predictive than win/loss record. The Seahawks have a slight edge in yards per play differential, +1.51 vs. +1.23, but first down rate differential is more predictive. The Rams have also faced a tougher schedule overall and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights first down rate differential higher than yards per play differential, the Rams have about a 4 point edge over the Seahawks.

The Rams are on the road in this game, but they have limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, have consistently outperformed the spread on the road since relocating in 2017, going 46-37 with a +1.4 per game differential against the spread. I like the Rams for at least a small bet in this game, with the Rams just needing to win to cover the spread. Depending on whether or not questionable players play (wide receiver Davante Adams and interior defender Braden Fiske for the Rams, and left tackle Charles Cross for the Seahawks), I would consider increasing this bet.

Update: Charles Cross has been ruled out for the Seahawks, which is a huge loss for their offense. Despite that, this line has shifted to +1.5. I like the money line more than the spread, but this is a high confidence pick either way. Davante Adams is likely to be out for the Rams, but I was being conservative with my original pick and factoring his absence into the equation and not Cross’ absence. I am also considering this for Pick of the Week.

Final Update: After further consideration of this weekend’s games, this is my Pick of the Week.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week