Pick of the Week
CLE 20 (+4.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +160
High Confidence Picks
MIA 24 (+6) TB 23 Upset Pick +220
NE 26 NYJ 17 (+13.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
NO 22 (-2.5) TEN 17
JAX 27 IND 24 (+6)
BUF 27 (-1) PHI 24
NYG 23 (-1) LV 20
Low Confidence Picks
SF 31 (-3) CHI 26
GB 19 BAL 17 (+3.5)
LAR 31 ATL 24 (+8.5)
No Confidence Picks
LAC 17 HOU 16 (+1.5)
SEA 24 CAR 17 (+7.5)
CIN 34 (-7) ARZ 27
Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11)
The Cowboys have had the biggest disparity between their offensive and defensive performance of any team in the league. While their offense has been elite, ranking 4th in yards per play and 2nd in first down rate, their defense has been as bad as their offense has been good, ranking 30th in yards per play allowed and 32nd in first down rate allowed. Fortunately, offensive performance tends to be a lot more predictive than defensive performance, especially at this stage of the season.
The Commanders are also much better on offense than defense, ranking 15th in yards per play and 16th in first down rate, as opposed to 31st in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, but they will likely be down to their third string quarterback Josh Johnson, who is a big downgrade even from backup Marcus Mariota. Johnson is in his age 39 season, has not made a start since 2021, and recorded a 28.8 PFF grade across 9 attempts in relief of Mariota last week. While the Cowboys’ elite offense should be able to move the ball with ease against the Commanders’ terrible defense, the Commanders may be unable to move the ball even against the Cowboys’ terrible defense because of their quarterback situation.
The Cowboys also seem to have found their best offensive line combination, moving Tyler Smith, their best offensive lineman, to left tackle, the most important offensive line position and previously their biggest weakness. TJ Bass then replaced Smith at his previous spot of left guard, where he is a better option than Nate Thomas or Tyler Guyton were at left tackle. This even further boosts their elite offense. I think the Cowboys are significantly undervalued as 7-point road favorites, so they are worth a big bet this week. I am taking a risk locking in this pick before the Commanders’ quarterback is announced, but it seems pretty likely it won’t be Mariota and I don’t want to risk this line going up to 7.5, which it may if/when Mariota is announced as out. If you are reading this and Mariota happens to be starting for the Commanders, I would need the line to go down to 6.5 for the Cowboys to be worth betting.
Dallas Cowboys 34 Washington Commanders 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas -7
Confidence: High
Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
The Lions’ home loss to the Steelers last week was surprising, for a couple reasons. For one, the Lions were big home favorites, favored by a full touchdown. On top of that, the Lions were coming off of a loss the previous week and historically they have done very well off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, going 23-10 ATS prior to last week, including a whopping 15 straight wins following a loss, the longest such streak in NFL history.
As a result of last week’s loss, the Lions are again in that same spot this week and, despite the fact that they struggled in this spot last week, I still think betting the Lions off of a loss is a good bet, as they are still 23-11 ATS off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, outperforming the spread by an average of 3.4 points per game. The Lions also have an easier matchup this week, facing a 7-8 Vikings team that is starting third string quarterback Max Brosmer, with starter JJ McCarthy and backup Carson Wentz both injured.
An undrafted rookie, Brosmer was horrendous in his first career start earlier this year, completing 19 of 30 for 126 yards and 4 interceptions in a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks. Brosmer looked a little better in relief of an injured McCarthy last week against the Giants and, in terms of defensive performance, the Lions are closer to the Giants than the Seahawks, but Brosmer still has an overall 14.5 QBR and a 29.7 PFF grade on 47 pass attempts this season, worst among all quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts this season.
The Vikings beat the Lions in Detroit earlier this year, but that was with a healthy McCarthy and that win against puts the Vikings in a bad spot this week, as it is tough for a significantly inferior team to hang with a divisional opponent twice in the same season. Overall, divisional underdogs of 3.5 or more cover at just a 42.7% rate with a -1.3 margin in a same-season, regular season rematch against a team they previously beat as underdogs of 3.5 or more. The Lions are also better than their record would suggest, as they are just 1-5 in one score games, despite an 8-7 record. They have seven wins by more than seven points this season and I think, in a great spot against a third string quarterback, they will get their eighth this week. They are worth a significant bet.
Detroit Lions 28 Minnesota Vikings 17
Pick against the spread: Detroit -7
Confidence: High
Denver Broncos (11-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
The Chiefs have had a disastrous two-week stretch. First, they were eliminated from playoff contention in a loss to the Chargers and lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL. Then last week, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew suffered a season ending knee injury of his own in a game in which the Chiefs lost by 17 to arguably the worst team in the league in the Tennessee Titans. As a result, the Chiefs are now 13.5-point home underdogs against the Broncos, a week after being just 5.5-point home underdogs on the advance list and, despite that, the vast majority of the public money is still on the Broncos.
As crazy as it sounds, I actually think this has created a good betting spot. The Chiefs are very injury plagued, but they still have a fair amount of talented players healthy on this roster, particularly on defense. I think their poor performance last week was more the result of a lack of effort in a bad spot, off of a playoff elimination, against a last place team, four days before a nationally televised Christmas game against a division leader, rather than a complete lack of talent. I expect a much better effort this week in a much better spot.
The Broncos also don’t have a lot of big wins by big margins, winning by more than four points just five times and by more than eight points just two times, neither of which came on the road. In fact, their average margin of victory in four road wins is just 3.75 points. Bad teams like the Raiders (twice), Jets, Giants, Titans, and Commanders have all played the Broncos within 8 points this season and I like the Chiefs’ chances of at least keeping it within 13. This is a high confidence pick.
Denver Broncos 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13
Pick against the spread: Kansas City +13.5
Confidence: High
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