2025 Week 18 NFL Picks

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Both of these teams finished the regular season significantly worse than their record would suggest in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, both of which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record. The Texans finished 14th at +0.58, while the Steelers finished 22nd at -1.65. Both teams benefited significantly from the turnover margin, with the Texans ranking 2nd at +17 and the Steelers ranking 4th at +12, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +10 or better have an even turnover margin in the post-season and, as a result, cover the spread at just a 46.7% rate, including 45.2% as favorites.

However, it seems to be only the Steelers that are viewed as not as good as their record by the public, as the Texans are favored by 3.5 points in Pittsburgh. With only about two points between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, we are getting great value with the Steelers at that number. The Steelers are also historically a great bet as home underdogs in the Mike Tomlin era, going 20-9-4 ATS and 18-15 straight up, outperforming the spread on average by 3.7 points, more than the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency. I think there is a good chance the Steelers pull the straight up upset at home and, even if they don’t, I like getting 3.5 points to play with, with about a quarter of games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: High

2025 Week 18 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

NE 34 (-10.5) MIA 13

High Confidence Picks

HOU 20 IND 16 (+10.5)

JAX 30 (-12.5) TEN 10

CIN 28 (-7.5) CLE 17

Medium Confidence Picks

BAL 19 PIT 17 (+4)

CHI 28 DET 27 (+4.5)

Low Confidence Picks

LAR 31 (-14) ARZ 15

PHI 24 (-3.5) WAS 17

KC 20 LV 17 (+4.5)

MIN 20 GB 10 (+12.5)

ATL 20 NO 17 (+4)

SEA 26 (-1) SF 24

DAL 31 (-3) NYG 27

DEN 27 (-14) LAC 10

No Confidence Picks

BUF 26 NYJ 14 (+12.5)

TB 23 CAR 20 (+3)

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

The Browns were my top pick last week as 4.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers, but that was because the Steelers were missing a lot of key personnel and were in the type of spot where they have historically struggled under head coach Mike Tomlin, going 7-24 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 or more after a win since his first season in 2007. Fortunately for the Steelers, the opposite is also true, as they are 9-2 ATS and straight up as home underdogs of 3.5 or more during that stretch, including 4-1 ATS after a loss.

The Steelers are also healthier this week. They are still without top wide receiver DK Metcalf and also lost talented tight end Darnell Washington last week, but they get back arguably their best offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo, stud edge defender TJ Watt, and cornerback James Pierre, who has been their best cornerback this season when in the lineup. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Steelers to bounce back with a more complete team in a better spot.

Baltimore Ravens 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)

I made a big bet on the Dolphins last week as 6-point home underdogs against the Buccaneers, but that was much more a bet against the Buccaneers, who have one win since week 8 and just two wins by more than three points all season, rather than on the Dolphins. The Dolphins won that game straight up, but they needed to win the turnover battle by three to do so, which is not consistent week-to-week. First down rate and yards per play are much more consistent and the Dolphins lost the first down rate battle (-8.23%) and yards per play battle (-0.51) to a Buccaneers team that ranks 20th and 28th in those metrics respectively. 

The Dolphins’ win last week also puts them in a bad spot, as teams tend to struggle after big home upset wins, covering at a 40.8% rate the week after winning as home underdogs of five points or more, including a 34.9% cover rate when they are underdogs of five or more again. Additionally, the Dolphins historically have struggled against good teams in the Mike McDaniel era, going 2-10 straight up and 3-9 ATS against teams that are .500 or better in week 11 or later. This season specifically, they are 6-2 straight up against teams with a losing record, but just 1-7 against teams that are .500 or better, with four double digit losses, three of which came on the road in their four road games against teams with a .500 or better record (8-8 Carolina is the one exception).

Making matters worse, the Dolphins will be without two of their best offensive playmakers, running back De’Von Achane and tight end Darren Waller, this week due to injury. Despite this, the Dolphins are only 10.5-point underdogs in New England this week, against a Patriots team that is one of the best in the league and that is getting healthier this week, with wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, left tackle Will Campbell, and defensive tackle Milton Williams all set to return. 

This line has crept up to 11 or 11.5 since I locked this in at 10.5 earlier this week, but I still like the Patriots a lot at that number. One potential concern is the Patriots pulling starters late if the Broncos are up big on the short-handed Chargers, which would eliminate the Patriots from contention for the #1 seed, but the Broncos have two double digit wins all year and play a lot of close games, so I am not really concerned about that. The Patriots are my top pick this week.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: New England -10.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to injury, but he will get tight end George Kittle back after he missed his sixth game of the season due to injury last week. As a result of their recent winning streak, the public seems to not understand why the Seahawks are favored by a point on the road in this game, betting on the 49ers heavily. The Seahawks are a big step up from the teams they have played on their winning streak though, as they rank 2nd in first down rate differential (+5.55%) and 1st in yards per play differential (+1.34). 

The 49ers, on the other hand, rank 7th in first down rate differential (2.35%) and 18th in yards per play differential (-0.07). Part of that is due to the injuries the 49ers have had this season and they are overall healthier than they have been, but my roster rankings still suggest the oddsmakers are right to favor the visitor in this game and, if anything, this line is a little short, with my calculated line at -2.5. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

I have had a lot of success betting against the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They started the season 5-1, but were never as good as their record suggested, with four of those five wins coming by three points or fewer. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 2-8 with only one ATS cover in their last ten games, including eight straight non-covers. They still are alive for a playoff spot, but only because they play in the weakest division in the NFL. 

Unfortunately, we’re not really getting good line value going against the Buccaneers anymore, as their record now largely lines up with where they rank in first down rate differential (20th at -0.91%) and yards per play differential (28th at -0.62). The Buccaneers are also starting to get healthier. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka are clearly playing at less than 100%, while starting cornerback Jamel Dean joins fellow starting cornerback Zyon McCollum on the sidelines this week, but left tackle Tristan Wirfs (5 games missed), right tackle Luke Goedeke (6 games missed), running back Bucky Irving (7 games missed), and wide receivers Mike Evans (9 games missed), Chris Godwin (8 games missed), and Jalen McMillan (13 games missed) have all returned from multigame absences.

On top of that, the Buccaneers’ opponents this week, the Carolina Panthers, have been much worse in yards per play differential (26th at -0.57) and first down rate differential (26th at -1.89%) than their record would suggest. As evidence of how the public perception of the Buccaneers have shifted in just the past two weeks, the Buccaneers were 3-point road favorites in Carolina two weeks ago, which translates to about 7-point home favorites, but this week in this rematch they are still just 3-point favorites at home. That line is right where I have it calculated, so we aren’t getting any value with either side. I am taking the Panthers for pick ‘em purposes only because they are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 straight up as underdogs off of a loss this season, but this is a small sample size and could prove to not mean anything, so this is a no confidence pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: None