Washington Commanders (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

The Packers are in a good spot this week. Non-divisional home favorites cover at a 60.7% rate on Thursday Night Football because it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless it is a divisional matchup between familiar opponents or unless the visitor is the superior team, neither of which are the case in this game. Unfortunately, the Packers enter this game very banged up, likely to be without top cornerback Nate Hobbs and a pair of starting offensive linemen in Aaron Banks and Zach Tom, the latter of whom is their best offensive lineman. None of those three have been ruled out, but Banks and Tom did not practice all week, while Hobbs did not play week 1 and has yet to practice in full since having off-season knee surgery.

My calculated line has the Packers favored by 3 in their current injury situation, but this line has remained at 3.5, despite the Packers likely absences, which is a big deal because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. If the Packers get some good injury news or this line drops to 3, I may increase the confidence of this pick, but for now this is a no confidence pick and, if both teams were on regular rest, I would be taking the Commanders +3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3 in some places so I am increasing this to a low confidence pick, but I would need at least Zach Tom to play for this line to be bettable.

Green Bay Packers 21 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Low