Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are in a good spot as big divisional favorites on Thursday Night Football, as teams are 38-20 ATS as home favorites of 7.5+ in this spot as long as both teams are on short rest. On top of that, the Dolphins have a history of struggling on the road against good opponents, as they are 1-7 ATS against winning teams on the road over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Bills in the past week, with this line swinging from favoring the Bills by 8.5 on the early line to now favoring them by 11.5. My calculated line has the Bills favored by 10.5, which isn’t enough line value to consider picking the Dolphins in a bad spot, but it’s enough to convince me not to bet on the Bills. Buffalo is still my pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 34 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -11.5

Confidence: Low