Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) in Dublin

The Steelers are 2-1, but they have a negative point differential at -5, despite recovering all eight fumbles that have occurred in their three games. Recovering fumbles is a statistically random event and recovering eight in a row has a probability of about 0.4%. Like anything, there can be outliers, but the Steelers have actually been below 50% in terms of fumble recovery rate in three of the past four seasons, so there is no reason to expect this to continue. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive and predictable, the Steelers rank 30th and 29th respectively at -6.17% and -1.30 respectively. The Vikings, meanwhile, are positive in both of those metrics at +0.68 and +1.69% respectively. 

The Vikings are favored in this game, but only by 2.5 points. My calculated line has the Vikings favored by 6 in this neutral site game, so we’re getting a lot of line value with them. True 6-point favorites have about a 62.46% chance of covering as 2.5-point favorites. On top of that, favorites tend to cover in neutral site international games historically, going 37-21 ATS all-time, better teams tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances. Getting good line value with a team that is in a good spot as well makes for a strong betting situation, so I like the Vikings a lot this week. This is my Pick of the Week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week