Pick of the Week
CLE 17 (+6.5) PIT 16 Upset Pick +225
High Confidence Picks
SEA 24 (PK) JAX 20
Medium Confidence Picks
LAR 24 BAL 20 (+7.5)
WAS 27 (-4.5) CHI 20
NE 24 NO 23 (+3.5)
IND 27 ARZ 21 (+8.5)
Low Confidence Picks
GB 27 (-14) CIN 10
KC 30 (-2.5) DET 27
LV 20 (-4) TEN 14
DAL 28 (-3) CAR 24
No Confidence Picks
LAC 24 MIA 20 (+4.5)
TB 27 SF 24 (+3.5)
BUF 31 ATL 27 (+4.5)
Denver Broncos (3-2) vs. New York Jets (0-5) in London
Normally the Broncos would be in a good spot in this game, as favorites tend to cover in international games, especially big favorites, with favorites of a touchdown or more going 9-2 ATS. However, the Broncos could be a little flat, facing a winless team after a big upset win in Philadelphia last week. Teams cover at just a 41.1% rate as favorites of 4 or more after an upset win as underdogs of 4 or more, while winless teams tend to be a good betting proposition, as teams 0-4 or worse cover at a 55.7% rate.
The Jets also haven’t been as bad as their record suggests in terms of yards per play differential (23rd at -0.43) and first down rate differential (16th at +0.31%), which are more predictive than win/loss records. Their biggest issue has been the turnover margin, in which they rank dead last at -8, but that tends to have high week-to-week variance. A big part of why they haven’t been so bad in yards per play differential and first down rate differential is their performance in garbage time, but that can’t be ignored when a line is a full touchdown.
The Jets have lost three of their five games by fewer than 7 points, including 2-point losses to a pair of decent or better teams in the Steelers and Buccaneers. On the other hand, the Broncos don’t normally take their foot off the gas when winning by multiple scores, ranking tied for 2nd in the NFL with 10 wins by 8 points or more over the past two seasons, so I am still comfortable picking them for pick ‘em purposes, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Jets made this one close and covered the spread, so I wouldn’t bet on the Broncos.
Week 6 Early Locked Bet: CLE +6.5
Denver Broncos 27 New York Jets 17
Pick against the spread: Denver -7
Confidence: Low
Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)
The Eagles are a tough team to be confident in either way. They are defending Super Bowl Champions and they are 4-1 despite one of the toughest schedules in the league, but they haven’t looked particularly good in any of their games. All five of their games have been decided by seven points or fewer and they rank 24th in first down rate differential (-2.01%) and 28th in yards per play differential (-0.92). Even with their tough schedule factored in, they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency.
However, my roster rankings suggest they should be a lot better than that (6th) and it’s worth noting that by far their easiest game of the season, even on the road, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this is when they end up breaking out, as the Giants are just 1-4 and rank 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency and in 26th my roster rankings. However, with this line favoring the Eagles by a full touchdown, we’re not getting any value with them and it’s tough to know what to expect from them, given the mismatch between their talent level and their statistical output, so this is a no confidence pick.
Update: The final inactive list is not good for the Eagles. Jalen Carter is out, while Jermaine Eluemunor is in, after both were listed as questionable. Despite this, this line is still at 7.5 in some places. I would rather pick the Giants +7.5 than Eagles -7, but it’s a no confidence pick either way.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5
Confidence: None
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