Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)

The Steelers are 4-1, but they have been pretty underwhelming so far this season. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-1.39%) and yards per play differential (-0.08), despite a below average schedule. Their turnover margin of +7 is 3rd best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have high week-to-week variance. Fumble margins in particular have very high week-to-week variance and the Steelers are a league leading +5 in that metric. That is despite the fact that they have only caused 2 more fumbles than they have committed, as they have recovered an unsustainably high 83.3% of fumbles in their games.

The Steelers’ schedule doesn’t get any harder this week, as the Bengals as one of the worst teams in the league, but this is also a spot in which the Steelers tend to disappoint, as they are 22-38 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more in the Mike Tomlin era, including 10-26 ATS after a win the previous week. Unfortunately, I don’t think we are getting enough line value with the Bengals at +5.5 for them to be worth betting, unless we get some good news on Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals’ best defensive player, who didn’t practice all week. If the line shifts significantly or he is able to play at close to 100%, I will update this pick.

Early bet locks: NO +5, DEN -7

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +5.5

Confidence: Low