Minnesota Vikings (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to pick the home team, as long as they are favored and as long as both teams are on short rest. With the exception of significantly superior teams, it is very tough for a team to go on the road on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 61.2% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest. 

Additionally, it is also very tough for teams to play at their best on a short week when they are playing two games in five days after previously having a bye, like the Vikings did in week 6. Teams in that spot cover at just a 35.3% rate, unless their opponent is also in the same situation, including just 2-9 ATS on the road in a non-divisional matchup. This isn’t a big play because we aren’t getting significant line value with the Chargers and, if this was a Sunday or a Monday game, I would have no interest in betting the Chargers, but the Chargers are worth a small bet in this spot.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3

Confidence: Medium