Baltimore Ravens (2-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-6)

Both of these teams only have two wins, but they have very different rest of the season outlooks. While the Dolphins have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of yards per play differential (29th at -0.70) and first down rate differential (28th at -3.24%), the Ravens have been much better in those metrics than their record, ranking 14th in yards per play differential (+0.04) and 18th in first down rate differential (-0.64%), despite a much tougher schedule than the Dolphins. Those metrics are much more predictive of a team’s future success than a team’s win/loss record, so that bodes well for the Ravens going forward.

The Ravens are also much healthier now than they have been for most of the season, with quarterback Lamar Jackson, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, defensive tackle Travis Jones, edge defender Kyle Van Noy, linebacker Roquan Smith, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton all back from injuries that cost them time earlier in this season. With their team close to full strength and their schedule set to get much easier, the Ravens, one of the top teams in the AFC coming into the season, should be able to rip off a bunch of wins over the coming weeks to get themselves right back into the playoff picture.

Unfortunately, we’re not really getting any line value with the Ravens, as this line, favoring the Ravens by 7.5 points on the road, reflects the Ravens’ promising rest of season outlook. My calculated line is actually only Baltimore -7, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. The Dolphins are in a bad spot, as teams that win as underdogs of 6.5+ cover at just a 38.6% rate the following week as underdogs of 6.5+ the following week, but the Ravens aren’t in a good spot either, as they are playing two games in five days after previously having a bye. Teams in that spot cover at just a 30.3% rate, unless their opponent is also in the same situation, including just 2-10 ATS on the road in a non-divisional matchup. If I had to pick a side, I would take the Dolphins, but if this line was -7, I would take the Ravens. That’s how close this one is for me.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5

Confidence: None