Quarterback

Two years ago, the Bears got the #1 pick, coming off of a 3-14 season and were faced with a choice. The Bears could have used the #1 pick on a new quarterback, which would have meant trading away Justin Fields, who they had traded a pair of first round picks to select 11th overall just two years prior and who didn’t seem like he had gotten a fair shot with a good roster yet, or they could have traded away the #1 pick for a huge return. The Bears opted for the latter, getting back a package that included a pair of first round picks, a pair of second round picks, and talented wide receiver DJ Moore from the Carolina Panthers, who then used the pick to select Bryce Young.

A year after that trade, going into the 2024 off-season, the Bears seemed like they had obviously made the correct choice. Justin Fields didn’t pan out, leading to the Bears still only going 7-10 in 2023, and Fields was eventually traded to the Steelers for a conditional late round pick, but Bryce Young fared even worse in his first season in Carolina, leading to the Panthers finishing just 2-15, the worst record in the league, which meant that the 2024 first round pick the Panthers gave the Bears in their trade the year before was #1 overall, giving the Bears the opportunity to select Caleb Williams, who looked like one of the best quarterback prospects of the last decade.

Williams also seemed to be stepping into a much better situation than most quarterbacks who are selected #1. The Bears’ record the previous year wasn’t good, but it was better than most teams who select #1 and, armed with multiple high draft picks from the Panthers and a significant amount of cap space due to their cheap, young core, the Bears had been aggressive in both the 2023 and 2024 off-seasons building out the rest of this roster. If Caleb Williams could be as good as advertised, the Bears seemed to have a clear path to contending quickly and for years to come.

Instead, the Bears actually took a step back in 2024, finishing with a 5-12 record. There are numerous reasons for the Bears’ disappointing season, but quarterback Caleb Williams has to be at the top of the list. Williams’ overall numbers don’t look that bad, as he completed 62.5% of his passes for an average of 6.30 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions (87.8 QB rating), while rushing for 6.04 YPC on 81 carries, but Williams also took 68 sacks on a team that had the most sacks allowed in the league. 

Normally, a lot of the blame for all of those sacks would fall on the offensive line, but the Bears’ offensive line actually ranked 9th in pass blocking grade on PFF. The bigger problem was Williams held the ball for too long and showed a lack of pocket presence. Williams had the 6th highest time in the pocket in the NFL at 3.04 seconds, but only ranked 18th in quarterback pressure rate at 35.3, so even though he held the ball for a long time, he wasn’t pressured at a high rate. He ranked 3rd in the NFL in sack rate on pressured snaps at 27.8% and led the NFL with 17 unnecessary sacks taken. Overall, despite decent passing numbers, Williams received just a 67.6 PFF grade, good for 32nd among 44 eligible quarterbacks. Making matters worse, Bryce Young made significant strides in his second season in Carolina, while the other quarterback who would have been in consideration for the #1 pick in 2023, CJ Stroud, led the Texans to their second straight division title and won a playoff game for the second season in a row.

Of course, it’s tough to know how much of Williams’ struggles last season was his fault or the fault of poor coaching. Going into last season, the Bears’ coaching staff seemed like their biggest weakness and it proved to be a big downfall. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired mid-season and replaced with Thomas Brown. A few weeks after that, head coach Matt Eberflus was fired and Brown became interim head coach, in addition to their offensive coordinator and play caller, a massive responsibility for a coach who entered last season as a passing game coordinator with just one year of previous offensive coordinator experience.

Fortunately, the Bears made a big splash this off-season, hiring former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their new head coach. Not only was Johnson the most sought after head coaching candidate of the last couple head coaching cycles, but he is also a very quarterback friendly head coach who has the potential to do great things for Williams’ development. Johnson isn’t guaranteed success, like many great coordinators before him who have failed as first time head coaches, and Williams needs to put in the work to develop as well, but I don’t think Williams could have asked for a better coaching staff situation going into a pivotal second season in the league and there is a great chance that he and this Bears offense take a huge step forward this season, after ranking 32nd in yards per play and 31st in first down rate last season.

Williams will be backed up by either Tyson Bagent, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has been their backup for the past two seasons, or Case Keenum, a journeyman veteran they signed this off-season to compete with Bagent for the backup role. Both look like underwhelming options. Bagent has exceeded expectations by being a backup in his first two years in the league after going undrafted, but he looked like one of the worst backup options in the league when on the field, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions (71.9 QB rating), which is why they brought in Keenum to potentially give them an alternative this off-season.

Keenum has had some great years as a backup and even as a starter in the NFL, making 66 starts in 13 seasons in the league and posting a 84.6 QB rating, but his QB rating is just 57.6 over the past three seasons and now he heads into his age 37 season, so he looks like he’s at the end of the line. If Bagent can hold off Keenum for the backup job, that will say negative more about Keenum than it will positive about Bagent and the same is true if Keenum comes in and takes the job. The Bears will obviously need Williams to stay healthy again all season, given the state of their backup quarterback situation, but if Williams does stay healthy again, he and this offense have enormous potential, given Williams’ talent and the new coaching staff he has.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bears’ offensive line wasn’t really the problem last season, but they did overhaul this group. The results of that overhaul could be a mixed bag, but one move that almost definitely helps this offense is signing center Drew Dalman, one of the best centers in the league, to replace Coleman Shelton, who was decent but unspectacular last season with a 66.4 PFF grade in 17 starts. Dalman has finished with PFF grades of 65.9, 82.3, and 78.8 over the past three seasons and is still very much in his prime, going into his age 27 season. He’s only a decent pass protector, but he is an incredible run blocker who should give the Bears’ ground game a big boost this season.

The Bears also made changes at both guard spots. They didn’t have bad guard play last season, as Teven Jenkins and Matt Pryor had PFF grades of 75.4 and 69.9 in 14 starts and 15 starts respectively as the primary starters, but the Bears didn’t necessarily downgrade the position either. At left guard, Jenkins wasn’t retained as a free agent because he has consistently had durability issues and he was replaced via trade for Joe Thuney who is highly accomplished, finishing above 70 on PFF in eight straight seasons, including a 79.9 PFF grade in 2024, and also highly durable, missing just two starts in nine seasons in the league. The one problem with Thuney is he is now heading into his age 33 season. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and unless he declines significantly this season, he should remain an above average starter.

Pryor, meanwhile, will be replaced by Jonah Jackson, who also came over in a trade, reuniting with his former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Jackson spent his first four seasons in Detroit from 2020-2023, making 57 starts. After struggling as a rookie with a 57.0 PFF grade, he seemed to turn a corner in his second and third seasons in the league with PFF grades of 69.3 and 66.1, before regressing to 59.7 in his contract year. 

Jackson still got a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal from the Rams last off-season, but he lasted two games at guard before getting hurt, then moved to center upon his return, struggled mightily in one start out of position, and then played well back at guard in a meaningless week 18 game, finishing the 2024 season with a 67.5 PFF grade over across just 266 snaps. Now going into 2025, it’s tough to know what to make of Jackson, now two years removed from his last full season as a starter in which he was above average, but he’s still theoretically in his prime in his age 28 season and should have bounce back potential, even if that’s far from a guarantee.

At tackle, the Bears return the same starters as a year ago. Right tackle Darnell Wright was probably their best offensive lineman last season. Selected 10th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft after their trade down with the Panthers, Wright had a decent 62.4 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie before breaking out with a 79.3 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2024. Wright is technically a one-year wonder and could regress somewhat in 2025, but he also has a massive ceiling and, still only going into his age 24 season, his best years could still be ahead of him. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward in 2025.

Left tackle Braxton Jones played pretty well, with a 77.4 PFF grade. He was only a 5th round pick in 2022, but has proven to be a steal, with PFF grades of 75.4 and 68.8 in his first two seasons in the league before continuing to play well last season. The one concern with him is he has missed 11 games over the past two seasons, but I wouldn’t necessarily call him an injury prone player. The Bears also added extra insurance this off-season with second round pick Ozzy Trapilo, who could potentially be viewed as the long-term starter if Jones isn’t retained as a free agent next off-season.

The Bears also used a high draft pick on a potential long-term starter at tackle in last year’s draft, taking Kiran Amegadjie in the third round. Amegadjie struggled as a rookie with a 40.3 PFF grade across 126 snaps and his long-term outlook doesn’t look as good as it did a year ago, which is probably why Trapilo was added as well, but he could still develop into a long-term starter. With Trapilo being drafted, the Bears may view Amegadjie as a guard long-term more than a tackle. If he sees action as an injury replacement in 2025, it is more likely to be inside than outside. The Bears likely have above average starters at least four of five offensive line spots, with right guard being the exception, and some recent high draft picks as reserves, so this offensive line looks like it should be a strength this season.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Bears’ running game was also underwhelming last season, ranking just 4.02 in YPC at 27th, even with Caleb Williams having success on the ground. Lead back D’Andre Swift averaged just 3.80 YPC across 253 carries. Their running game should get a boost from Drew Dalman being added on the offensive line, but many expected the Bears to use a high draft pick to address their running back group, potentially even moving up in the first round to take Ashton Jeanty, the top running back prospect in the draft class, because Ben Johnson’s offense relied heavily on the running game in Detroit, led by a talented duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

The Bears couldn’t get Jeanty, but they did have opportunities to upgrade their backfield and opted not to, only using a 7th round pick on Kyle Monangai, an effective collegiate back who probably lacks the athleticism to be effective at the NFL level. That leaves Swift as the clear lead back again. A second round pick in 2020, Swift averaged 4.62 YPC in his first three seasons in the league, but was limited to 364 carries in 40 games due to injuries. In 2023, Swift was traded to Philadelphia and had 229 carries in 16 games, taking them for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns (4.58 YPC), giving him an impressive 4.60 YPC over 593 carries in his four seasons in the league, but only 2.53 of that came after contact, benefitting significantly from great blocking both in Detroit and Philadelphia. 

In his first season in Chicago, that average after contact was similar at 2.46, but he had far less room to work with. Swift should benefit from the Bears’ run blocking and offense in general being better in 2025, but he’s an underwhelming lead back in general who is reliant on talent around him. He is at least a capable pass catcher though, finishing last season with a 42/386/0 slash line and 1.09 yards per route run, which are actually down from his career averages of a 55/419/2 slash line per 17 games and 1.27 yards per route run. 

Roschon Johnson will also likely remain the #2 back. His yards per carry average was even worse than Swift’s at 2.73 on 55 carries, but that was because he was almost exclusively used as a short yardage option and he actually had success in that role, with a 56.4% carry success rate. He also rushed for 6 touchdowns, the same amount as Swift, despite a much smaller carry total. Johnson also had a decent 4.35 yards per carry average on 81 carries as a 4th round rookie in 2023 when he was used in an expanded role.

Without a significant addition being made to this backfield this off-season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnson get a bigger role beyond just short yardage and cut into D’Andre Swift’s carry total this season. Johnson also showed himself to be a decent pass catcher as a rookie with a 1.10 yards per route run average, though that did fall to 0.76 in 2024. Overall, the Bears have an underwhelming backfield, but they should benefit from better run blocking on the offensive line and likely a better offense around them in general.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Bears didn’t use any high draft picks on their backfield, but they did add to their receiving corps, adding tight end Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick and using one of their two second round picks on wide receiver Luther Burden. They are the latest in a long line of pass catchers the Bears have recently used significant assets on. DJ Moore was acquired in the trade with Carolina where they gave away the first overall pick and the Bears reportedly asked for Moore in lieu of adding another first round pick in the deal. Between that and the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal they gave him last off-season, the Bears have a lot of resources committed to Moore, but he is worth it.

Moore led the team with a 98/966/6 slash line last season and that actually constituted a down year for him. His receiving yardage was the third lowest of his 7-year career, while his 1.44 yards per route run average was the worst in his career. He exceeded 1,100 receiving yards in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023, with a yards per route run average over two yards per route run in 2019, 2020, and 2023, and he posted career highs across the board with a 96/1364/8 slash line and 2.31 yards per route run in 2023. In total, he has averaged 1.91 yards per route run in his career, while averaging a 83/1123/5 slash line per 17 games and missing just two games total. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, the former first round pick will almost definitely bounce back with a new coaching staff and likely better quarterback play in 2025.

Rome Odunze, the 9th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, will be the #2 receiver. He had a disappointing season last year as well, managing just a 54/734/3 slash line on 1.18 yards per route run, but he also could be a lot better in 2025, as he still has a lot of talent. With Moore and Odunze likely locked into their roles, that leaves Burden to compete with veteran free agent addition Olamide Zaccheus for the #3 receiver job. Burden had first round talent and could prove to be a steal, while Zaccheus had a solid 45/506/3 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run average last season in a part-time role with the Commanders. 

Zaccheus only has averaged 1.28 yards per route run in his career and had a career best year in his sixth season in the league last season, so Burden should beat him out, but both could have roles. It wouldn’t be hard for either to be an upgrade on the departed Keenan Allen, who commanded 121 targets last season but was very inefficient on them, finishing with just a 70/744/7 slash line. His vacated targets will likely be split amongst Burden, Zaccheus, and Loveland, with Odunze also likely seeing a larger target share.

Loveland will likely be the starting tight end, but the Bears still have Cole Kmet, an experienced tight end on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal, so he should still have a role and will probably prevent Loveland from having a big target share as a rookie. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Kmet had a career year in 2023 with a 73/719/6 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run, but like most of this offense he had a disappointing 2024 and fell to a 47/474/4 slash line and 0.91 yards per route run, marking the lowest yards per route run average of his career and the lowest receiving total since his rookie season. 

Only going into his age 26 season, Kmet had obvious bounce back potential in 2025 before Loveland was drafted and he should still see a significant increase in efficiency this season, but his overall playing time and production upside are going to be significantly reduced by the addition of Loveland. He’s as good as any #2 tight end in the league though and should still have somewhat of a role. Overall, this looks like a deep and talented receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

It wasn’t just the Bears’ offense that was disappointing in 2024, as the defense underperformed expectations as well. In 2023, the Bears finished the season ranked 18th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed and were even better down the stretch after adding Montez Sweat in a deadline trade, but in 2024 they fell to 30th yards in per play allowed and 19th in first down rate allowed. Montez Sweat himself was a disappointment as well. 

After finishing the 2023 season with 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate, including 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 9 games with the Bears, Sweat had just 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 16 games in 2024, while falling to a 65.6 PFF grade across 616 snaps, the lowest PFF grade since his rookie season in 2019. Sweat is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, and had PFF grades of 79.7, 75.6, 86.4, and 74.8 in his four previous seasons prior to last season, so he has a good chance to bounce in 2025.

Sweat bouncing back is much needed because the rest of this position group has a lot of problems. DeMarcus Walker was underwhelming with a 64.7 PFF grade across 738 snaps last season and wasn’t retained this off-season, but his replacement Dayo Odeyingbo is not really an upgrade, despite being added on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal. Odeyingbo was a second round pick in 2021, but has not lived up to the billing, finishing with PFF grades of 61.4, 62.6, 56.9, and 66.1 across an average of 515 snaps per season, while totaling 16.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate in 61 games. 

Last season was the best of Odeyingbo’s career, as his career high PFF grade came across a career high 746 snaps and he’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he may have further untapped potential, but the Bears are betting on his potential more than anything and could easily disappoint and be an overpay. Making matters even worse, the Bears desperately lack depth behind Sweat and Odeyingbo. Darrell Taylor (374 snaps), Austin Booker (283 snaps), and Jacob Martin (222 snaps) were the Bears’ top reserves last season. Martin and Taylor had pressure rates of 13.5% and 13.8% in limited roles, but neither was retained this off-season, leaving only Booker, who had a 6.5% pressure rate. 

Booker is a 2024 5th round pick and could be better in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and he’ll almost definitely be counted on for a big role, as the Bears didn’t add any other reserve options this off-season, leaving Daniel Hardy, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 72 career snaps, and Dominique Robinson, a 2022 5th round pick with a career 4.8% pressure rate, as their other best reserve options. Even if Sweat bounces back and Odeyingbo continues developing, both of which are not guaranteed, this position group will still have significant concerns.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Bears did at least make significant additions at the interior defender position this off-season, signing Grady Jarrett to a 3-year, 42.75 million dollar deal and using a second round pick on Shemar Turner. Both have some upside, but both also have significant downside, for opposite reasons. While Turner is a rookie, and a particularly raw one at that, Jarrett is going into his age 32 season and his 11th season in the league. Jarrett already had a down year last season, falling to a 62.1 PFF grade across 744 snaps, after exceeding 70 on PFF in each of his previous seven seasons, and he could easily decline further again in 2025. Even if he doesn’t, it’s very likely his best days are behind him at this stage of his career.

Even with Jarrett and Turner being added, Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings will still have significant roles as well. Dexter, a 2023 2nd round pick, had a mini breakout season last year with a 70.3 PFF grade across 616 snaps, after receiving a 50.9 PFF grade across 433 snaps as a rookie. Dexter played well both against the run and as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate. He’s technically a one-year wonder and could regress somewhat in 2025, but he also could have permanently turned a corner and he could even develop further and have an even better season, still only in his age 24 season.

Andrew Billings wasn’t quite as good, but he still had a decent 62.5 PFF grade, his 5th straight healthy season above 60 on PFF, with his career best PFF grade of 76.4 coming in 2022 on 478 snaps. He did miss nine games due to injury and was limited to 297 snaps as a result, which is somewhat of a concern, as he also missed all but 72 snaps between 2020 and 2021 due to injury. Billings is also going into his age 30 season, so his age is becoming a concern as well. He could be a solid rotational player who stays healthy, but there is some concern that won’t happen.

Chris Williams (367 snaps), Byron Cowart (335 snaps), and Zacch Pickens (228 snaps) all saw somewhat significant snaps for the Bears at the interior defender position last season and all struggled with PFF grades of 45.5, 58.9, and 45.5 respectively. However, Cowart is no longer on the team and, with Jarrett and Turner being added, Pickens and Williams will play deep reserve roles this season at most, if they even make the final roster. 

Pickens at least may have some untapped upside, as he was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but he has shown nothing across 492 career snaps to suggest he was deserving of that pick, while Williams is a 2020 undrafted free agent who had only played 107 career snaps prior to last season and who is highly unlikely to ever develop into even a decent rotational player. The Bears’ interior defender position group is much better for Jarrett and Turner being added and Pickens and Williams not needing to play significant roles this season as a result, but this is still only a solid position group.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Bears made a big investment in their linebacking corps two off-seasons ago when they added Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards on deals worth 72 million over 4 years and 19.5 million over 3 years respectively. Edmunds was the higher paid of the two by far, but Edwards has been the better player, earning an extension worth 20 million over 2 years this off-season. Edwards finished with a 79.6 PFF grade across 1,042 snaps in his first season in Chicago, which shouldn’t have been a surprise, as he had PFF grades of 76.3 and 84.8 across snap counts of 684 and 1,040 respectively in his final two seasons in Philadelphia before signing with the Bears in free agency. 

Edwards had a down year last year with only a 60.7 PFF grade across 1,054 snaps though, part of why the Bears’ defense disappointed, but he is still only going into his age 29 season and could easily bounce back in a big way in 2025. Edmunds, meanwhile, has had PFF grades of 56.6 and 59.2 over the past two seasons respectively, across snap counts of 876 and 1,055. He did have a 79.0 PFF grade across 760 snaps in his final season in Buffalo in 2022, but that was by far the best season of his 7-year career and has proven to be a fluke. He’s still only in his age 27 season and could bounce back a little bit in 2025, but it’s unlikely he will ever live up to his 2022 season and the big contract the Bears gave him as a result of that season.

The Bears used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Ruben Hyppolite and he could replace Edmunds as the starter if they decide to move on from him after the guaranteed money on his contract is finished next off-season, but in the meantime he will replace former backup Jack Sanborn, who had a decent 63.1 PFF grade across 235 snaps last season, before signing with the Cowboys this off-season. Other reserve options include Noah Sewell, who has flashed some potential in two seasons in the league since being a 2023 5th round pick, albeit on just 32 snaps, and Amen Ogbongbemiga, a career special teamer and former undrafted free agent who has played just 146 career snaps in four seasons in the league. It won’t take much for Hyppolite to be the top reserve even as a rookie in an overall solid, but unspectacular position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The strength of the Bears’ defense last season was their secondary, particularly their cornerback group, which was led by Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, who finished 10th and 12th respectively among cornerbacks with PFF grades of 76.2 and 76.0 respectively. For Johnson, this type of performance was expected and, in fact, it actually was a significant decline from 2023, when he led all cornerbacks with a 90.1 PFF grade, though that was the only season of his 5-year career in which he had played at that level, so that is likely somewhat of a fluke. Still, Johnson is one of the most talented cornerbacks in the league and is very much in his prime in his age 26 season, so I would expect him to continue playing at a high level, even if he doesn’t reach his 2023 peak again. 

For Gordon, his performance last season was somewhat of a surprise. The 2022 2nd round pick has always had the upside, but he had PFF grades of 49.8 and 65.6 in his first two seasons in the league, so 2024 was a significant improvement for him. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at that level or better, now going into his age 26 season, but he could also regress a little bit. He’s also only a slot cornerback, which limited him to 48.3 snaps per game last season, but, at his best, he’s one of the best pure slot cornerbacks in the league.

With Gordon playing in the slot, Tyrique Stevenson was the primary outside cornerback opposite Johnson last season, but he struggled with a 58.9 PFF grade across 810 snaps. Stevenson is a 2023 2nd round pick who has upside, but between last season and a 60.2 PFF grade across 830 snaps as a rookie, he hasn’t shown that upside yet. Stevenson also started ceding snaps down the stretch last season to Terrell Smith, who outplayed him significantly with a 78.5 PFF grade, albeit on just 207 snaps. Smith was just a 5th round pick in 2023, but he also showed potential with a 69.6 PFF grade across 377 snaps as a rookie and could ultimately be a better long-term option than Stevenson. Stevenson is probably the favorite for the #2 cornerback job in 2025, but he could be on a short leash and, at the very least, Smith is a good #4 cornerback option.

At safety, the Bears were led by Kevin Byard, who had a 72.8 PFF grade while making all 17 starts. That is nothing new for Byard, who has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of the past eight seasons, including three seasons over 80, while making all but 1 start during that time period. Byard is now heading into his age 32 season and could start declining soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, he has been remarkably durable throughout his career, and even if he does decline, he should remain a solid starter at the very least.

JaQuan Brisker began last season as the other starting safety and played decently with a 65.3 PFF grade across 5 starts, but then he suffered a season ending injury. Fortunately, the Bears actually didn’t experience any drop off without him, even though two different players made starts in his absence, with his original replacement Elijah Hicks also suffering a season ending injury after 356 snaps in 8 games and being replaced by Jonathan Owens, who played 429 snaps. In Brisker’s absence, Hicks and Owens received PFF grades of 71.8 and 66.5 respectively, so they were actually slight upgrades.

Brisker returns to the starting lineup in 2025 and will hopefully be healthier. The 2022 2nd round pick has played similarly to last season throughout his 3-year career, with PFF grades of 67.0 and 66.7 in 2022 and 2023, across 30 total starts. He’s still pretty young, going into his age 26 season, and could still have further untapped potential, but even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter. He will continue being backed up by Hicks and Owens. 

Owens had a 61.9 PFF grade across 774 snaps in 2023 with the Packers, though he also struggled with a 48.3 PFF grade across 970 snaps in 2022 with the Texans and he now heads into his age 30 season, but he’s still a good reserve option. Meanwhile, Hicks is a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 46.2 PFF grade across the first significant action of his career in 2023, when he played 487 snaps, but he isn’t a bad reserve option either. This looks likely to remain an above average secondary again in 2025.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Cairo Santos was an above average kicker last season, accumulating 2.84 points above average. That actually was a down year for him, as he has totaled 19.46 points above average over the past five seasons combined, good for 5th most among kickers during that span. Santos is going into his age 34 season in 2025, and last year could have been the beginning of a decline, but kickers can remain effective into their mid-30s, so there is a good chance he remains an above average kicker this season.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bears disappointed last year, drastically underperforming their talent level, in large part due to their poor coaching staff. Going into 2025, that coaching staff seems likely to be significantly improved, led by new Head Coach Ben Johnson, a highly accomplished coordinator and one of the most sought after head coaching hires of the past few off-seasons, as well as new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, whose past success as a coordinator has earned him two head coaching opportunities in his career. However, Johnson is still a first time head coach who isn’t guaranteed to be a success, the Bears were statistically even worse than their record last season, and they have one of the toughest schedules in the league, so it seems unlikely they will be a playoff team.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th in NFC North

Quarterback

The Bears have had a very interesting team building process over the past several seasons. A common strategy of teams is to draft a quarterback and then surround that quarterback with a lot of veteran talent while he is young and cheap. That strategy usually comes at the expense of future cap space and eventually the quarterback will need to get paid, but the hope is that by the time the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback that the quarterback will be good enough to keep the team competitive even with less around him and, if the quarterback isn’t good enough for that, then the team can rebuild from scratch and start the process over with a new quarterback once their financial situation is improved, likely a quarterback they select with a high draft pick after a down year with a reduced supporting cast.

In 2017, the Bears used the 2nd overall pick on quarterback Mitch Trubisky and got to work on loading up the rest of the roster, especially on defense, led by Khalil Mack, giving up pair of first round picks to acquire him during the 2018 off-season and then promptly making him the highest paid defensive player in the league. The strategy resulted in 12-4 finish in 2018, but the Bears lost in the first round of the playoffs and never found that same success again, finishing 8-8 in each of the next two seasons, as they slowly started to lose key players from their 2018 team and Trubisky did not progress as a quarterback to compensate.

The Bears let Trubisky go as a free agent following his 4th season in the league in 2020, declining his expensive 5th year option, and it seemed like a good time to start to rebuild, with an eye on improving their long-term cap situation and then taking another shot on a young quarterback. Instead, the Bears immediately took another shot on a young quarterback, trading away a future first round pick to move up from 20 to 11 in the 2021 NFL Draft and select Justin Fields. Fields showed promise as a rookie, but the Bears’ supporting cast was still aging and expensive and need in of a rebuild, leading to a 6-11 season. 

The Bears then started that rebuild in a big way the following off-season, shedding expensive, aging veterans and going with cheaper, younger supporting cast around Fields. Fields continued to show some promise in his second season in the league, but had one of the worst supporting casts in the league, leading to the Bears finishing with the worst record in the league at 3-14. That terrible season earned the Bears the #1 pick in the draft, which put the Bears at a crossroads. They could either use the #1 pick on another quarterback and give up on a young quarterback who hadn’t really gotten a fair shot in two years in the league, or they could trade away the pick and try to build around Fields for the future. 

The Bears opted for the second choice, trading the pick to Carolina for a pair of first round picks and a pair of second round picks, as well as wide receiver DJ Moore, giving Fields a #1 wide receiver that he desperately lacked. The Bears then used their new found cap space to sign free agents like linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards and guard Nate Davis, then used the 10th overall pick that they got from Carolina to get Fields some more offensive line help in Darnell Wright, and then in a mid-season trade they made use of their excess second round picks and favorable cap situation to acquire talented edge defender Montez Sweat from the Commanders, a pending free agent who the Bears kept on a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal.

The result was a much improved Bears team, especially down the stretch once Sweat was added to the defense, as the Bears finished 7-10, including a 5-3 record in their final 8 games. DVOA was even more favorable to them, as they finished the season 11th in weighted DVOA, which more heavily weighted their second half of the season improvement (22nd in season-long DVOA). However, Fields was still a mixed bag, promising, but not necessarily the long-term solution. Fields completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.92 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 5.30 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 124 carries, resulting in total stats through three seasons in the league of 60.3% completion, 6.97 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions, with 6.24 YPC and 14 rushing touchdowns on 356 carries.

On top of that, the Panthers struggled mightily in their first season with #1 overall pick Bryce Young, in large part due to the absence of DJ Moore, leading to the first round pick the Bears got from Carolina being #1 overall in 2024. The Bears traded down from #1 overall and kept Fields as their quarterback once, but with Fields still not improving drastically despite a better supporting cast and being another year older and another year closer to the end of his cheap rookie deal, as well a stronger quarterback class led by USC’s Caleb Williams, the Bears did not make the same decision this year, trading away Fields and selecting Williams #1 overall.

With Fields only having one cost controlled year left on his contract, the market for Fields was not strong this off-season, leading to the Bears settling for a conditional late round pick in 2025 from the Steelers in exchange for him. Given Bryce Young’s struggles in his first season in Carolina and the fact that the first round pick they acquired from the Panthers ended up being #1 overall, it’s easy to look at their decision to keep Fields another year and trade down as a success, but there’s an alternate reality where the Bears stayed put at #1 in 2023, traded away Fields for a higher return a year earlier, and used that #1 pick on CJ Stroud, who broke out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league immediately as a rookie, after falling to the Texans at #2.

Hindsight is 20/20 and obviously the Bears’ course of action was better than if they had selected Bryce Young #1, but Stroud was a legitimate candidate for the #1 pick and easily could have been the Bears’ choice had they stayed put. If Caleb Williams pans out, no one will remember the Bears could have had Stroud, but if Williams proves to be a bust or disappoints, the Bears’ decision to trade down from #1 pick in 2023 will not look like the slam dunk move it looks like now.

Of course, Williams is one of the best quarterback prospects of the decade and seems a lot more likely to be the answer for the Bears at quarterback than a disappointment. He also, unlike Fields, has more than enough talent around him to succeed, or at least to be properly evaluated from the start. In addition to the players the Bears added last year to improve this roster, the Bears used their accumulated draft picks and financial flexibility to improve their roster further this off-season. With an elite quarterback prospect under center, it’s not hard to see how the Bears could take a big step forward in 2024 and, in the weaker NFC, that could make them one of the top teams in the conference.

Williams doesn’t have a significant injury history, but if he does happen to miss time, he will be replaced by another young quarterback Tyson Bagent. Bagent went undrafted in 2023, but impressed through the off-season to earn the #2 quarterback job behind Fields as a rookie and then saw 4 starts when Fields missed time. He had some positive moments, but ultimately looked like an undrafted rookie, completing 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.01 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. It’s possible he could be better in year two, but he is an underwhelming backup option and would almost definitely be a big drop off from Williams, so the Bears’ hopes of being a playoff team in 2024 depend heavily on Williams staying healthy.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The biggest area the Bears improved this off-season was their receiving corps. DJ Moore was a legitimate #1 wide receiver in his first season in Chicago, finishing with a 96/1364/8 slash line, a 2.31 yards per route run average that ranked 14th in the league among wide receivers, and a 89.3 PFF grade that ranked 9th in the league among wide receivers, but the rest of this wide receiver group was very underwhelming, as Darnell Mooney finished 2nd on the team among wide receivers with a 31/414/1 slash line and a 0.89 yards per route run average, while receiving a 55.2 PFF grade that ranked 92nd out of 102 eligible wide receivers.

Mooney was allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season and the Bears used some of their cap space to acquire Keenan Allen from the Chargers and then used their own first round pick, 9th overall, on Washington’s Rome Odunze to give them a talented trio of cap catchers. Allen is going into his age 32 season and is owed 23.1 million in the final year of his contract, meaning he could just be an one-year expensive rental and could also disappoint if he declines due to his age, but he only cost the Bears a 4th round pick in terms of draft compensation, they had the financial flexibility to acquire him, and he hasn’t really shown signs of decline yet, finishing the 2023 season with a 108/1243/7 slash in only 13 games, the 5th season of over 1000 yards receiving in the past seven seasons for a player with a career 2.10 yards per route run average (2.36 in 2023). 

It’s possible Allen’s abilities suddenly fall off a cliff given his age and the position he plays. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. However, assuming Allen doesn’t completely drop off, he should be a welcome addition for this team, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past. Odunze, meanwhile, is only a rookie, but he profiles as a future #1 receiver and won’t need to be any higher than the third receiver as a rookie, barring injuries or a major decline from Allen, so he is more than qualified for his role. 

Moore should remain the #1 option, even with Allen and Odunze being added. Still only going into his age 27 season, Moore has surpassed 1100 yards receiving in 4 of the past 5 seasons, despite shaky quarterback play with the Panthers and last year with the Bears. Over that 5-year stretch, which dates back to the 2018 first round pick’s second second in the league, Moore has averaged 2.04 yards per route run and a 84/1198/6 slash line per 17 games, while missing just two games with injury over that stretch. 

Moore is also coming off of a career best year in turns of receiving yardage and PFF grade and, even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he’s clearly in the prime of his career and should remain one of the better wide receivers in the league. He’ll probably see his target share go down with Allen and Odunze being added, but the 136 targets he had last season were only 16th in the NFL and, even with a smaller target share, he could see a similar number of overall targets on what should be a more pass heavy offense than a year ago (27th in the NFL in pass attempts last season with 513). He also should benefit from having more talented receivers around him taking some of the coverage away from him, as well as from having a better quarterback throwing him the ball.

The Bears also bring back tight end Cole Kmet, who was the de facto #2 receiver on this team last season, finishing with a 73/719/6 slash line, 90 targets, and 1.69 yards per route run, all second on the team behind Moore. It was a career best year for Kmet, who ranked 8th among tight ends with a 73.7 PFF grade in 2023, after a 1.25 combined yards per route run average and PFF grades of 63.4 and 67.6 in 2021 and 2022, but the 2020 2nd round pick is also highly talented and only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to play at that level or even a higher level, even if his overall receiving numbers go down slightly with more mouths to feed at the wide receiver position. He’s more than qualified to be the 3rd or 4th option in a suddenly loaded receiving corps.

The Bears also added veteran tight end Gerald Everett this off-season on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Everett is going into his age 30 season and was an underwhelming starting option with the Seahawks and Chargers over the past three seasons, but he wasn’t a bad starter either, with a 1.29 yards per route run average and 35 starts in 46 games, and he’s more than qualified to be a solid backup and a good insurance policy in case of a Kmet injury. The Bears also brought back blocking specialist Marcedes Lewis. Lewis is going into his age 40 season and has only caught 10 passes over the past two seasons, but he’s still an above average blocker, with a PFF run blocking grade of 73.7 in 2023. He won’t have a big role behind Kmet and Everett, but could still be useful as a role player and veteran leder.

The one concern with their group is depth at wide receiver behind their top-3 options, as they lack a proven backup, but they at least have some recent draft picks with some upside, as Tyler Scott was a 4th round pick in 2023 and Velus Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2022. Both have shown nothing as professionals to this point in their young careers, with career averages of 0.65 yards per route run and 1.02 yards per route run respectively, but both are young and talented enough that I wouldn’t rule out one taking a step forward this season and being an adequate backup option. Overall, this is one of the most complete receiving corps in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Bears also signed running back D’Andre Swift this off-season and he also figures to have a significant role in the passing game. His 39/214/1 slash line and 0.77 yards per route run from 2023 look underwhelming, but he played in an Eagles offense that doesn’t target running backs much in the passing game. In the first three seasons of his career in Detroit, the 2020 2nd round pick averaged a 52/399/2 slash line per 17 games with a 1.53 yards per route run average. 

Swift also averaged 4.62 YPC as a runner in those three seasons in Detroit, but injuries limited him to just 364 carries in 40 games. In his first season in Philadelphia, Swift played all but one game and rushed for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.58 YPC) in the first season of his career as a healthy lead back. Swift’s history of injuries is still a concern and he benefited significantly last season from running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, which he won’t be bringing to Chicago with him, but he’s proven to be a solid every down back when healthy and he’s still only going into his age 25 season.

Still, it’s fair to question the need for the Bears to bring Swift in on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal (7th highest average annual value among running backs), even if they had the financial flexibility to do it. Khalil Herbert was their lead running back last season and had a solid 4.63 YPC average on 132 carries. The 2021 6th round pick has never truly carried the load and he has struggled in the passing game with a career 0.73 yards per route run average, but he also has an impressive 4.88 YPC average on 364 carries as a runner in three seasons in the league and at the very least is a solid tandem back. Herbert’s career 3.20 yards per carry after contact significantly exceeds Swift’s 2.53. Swift will work in tandem with Herbert and handle most of the passing game work, but he comes at a steep price for that role. The Bears could have just kept Dont’a Foreman as a tandem back on a much cheaper deal (signed with Cleveland for 1-year, 1.3 million), even though his 2.75 yards per carry after contact in 2023 exceeded Swift’s 2.42.

The Bears also have 2023 4th round pick Roschon Johnson who showed promise as a rookie and who likely would have been that tandem back with Herbert had Swift not been added. Johnson averaged 4.35 YPC on 81 carries as a rookie and also handled the majority of the passing game work, with a 29/209/0 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average. Swift upgrades what is now a suddenly deep backfield, but I’m not sure he improves this team enough to justify his salary, especially given his injury history.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Bears didn’t make any big additions on the offensive line this season, but this was already a solid group, one that had been remade significantly over the past few off-seasons. Left tackle Braxton Jones was only a 5th round pick in 2022, but has proven to be a steal, making 28 starts on the blindside in two seasons in the league and giving the Bears above average play, with PFF grades of 75.4 and 68.8 respectively. Still only in his age 25 season, it’s possible the best is yet to come from him and, even if it’s not, he should remain a solid blindside protector in 2024 and beyond.

On the other side, right tackle Darnell Wright was taken 10th overall in 2023 with one of the draft picks the Bears got in their trade with Carolina. He was unspectacular as a rookie with a 62.4 PFF grade in 17 starts, but is a very talented player who could easily take a big step forward in year two. Even if he doesn’t improve drastically, I would still expect him to be at least somewhat improved from a year ago, given the amount of promise he came into the league with.

Left guard Teven Jenkins is also a young player, going in the 2nd round in 2021. Jenkins missed most of his rookie season with injury and struggled mightily in the limited action he did see (160 snaps), but he improved drastically (80.7 PFF grade) when he moved from tackle to guard in his second season in the league in 2022, in part due to the position change, in part due to being healthier and more experienced. Jenkins was still limited to 576 snaps by injury in 2022, but he saw more playing time in 2023, with a 72.6 PFF grade on 731 snaps. He’s still yet to make it through a full season without getting hurt, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and has proven his talent. He’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this season, but he also figures to remain an above average starting guard when on the field.

Right guard Nate Davis came to the Bears as a free agent last off-season, signing a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. The ex-Titan had a rough first season in Chicago, missing 6 games and being limited in several others due to injury and personal off-the-field concerns, leading to a disappointing 52.9 PFF grade, but he’s only in his age 28 season and could easily bounce back in 2024. In his final three seasons in Tennessee, he made 42 of a possible 50 starts and had PFF grades of 69.7, 68.8, and 70.6, so if everything is right with him again, he should be at least a solid starting guard, which will be a boost for this offensive line. 

The only addition in this offensive line this off-season was at center, where the Bears surrendered a 5th round pick to the Bills to take on the final 2 years and 8 million of Ryan Bates’ contract. Bates is an underwhelming player, but he comes relatively cheap and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade at center, where Cody Whitehair (45.0 PFF grade) and Lucas Patrick (50.5 PFF grade) were both liabilities last season, making center their biggest position of weakness in 2023. Bates was a backup with the Bills last season, playing just 35 snaps, which is why he was available so inexpensively this off-season, but he made 19 starts in 2021 and 2022 combined (3 at center, 16 at guard) and received adequate grades of 64.3 and 61.8 respectively from PFF, so he should be a capable and versatile starting option, still only in his age 27 season.

The Bears also used a 3rd round pick on Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as the swing tackle over Larry Borom, who had a 48.0 PFF grade in six starts (411 snaps) in 2023. Borom himself could also be better than a year ago, as the 2021 5th round pick was adequate in 17 starts in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.7 respectively, before last year’s down season. Even if Borom keeps the swing tackle job, Amegadjie could still provide value in year one because he has experience at guard as well as tackle.

On the interior, Whitehair and Patrick are gone and Matt Pryor and Coleman Shelton were added as veteran reserve options. Pryor played just 42 snaps with the 49ers in 2023, but he saw snap counts of 776, 438, and 576 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively and had his ups and downs, with grades of 55.4, 76.5, and 44.9 respectively from PFF. Of his 24 career starts, 13 have come at tackle, with the other 11 at guard, so he gives the Bears some veteran versatiity at the very least. Shelton, meanwhile, made 2 starts, 13 starts, and 17 starts for the Rams over the past 3 seasons with mediocre, but not horrible results, with PFF grades of 57.7, 58.0, and 64.5 respectively. Shelton is also a versatile reserve option, with 28 starts at center and 4 starts at guard over the past three seasons. 

The Bears hope none of their reserves have to see significant action, but their depth isn’t bad and their starting five has a good chance to be a solid unit. They weren’t terrible a year ago (23rd in both team run blocking and team pass blocking grade on PFF), despite injuries (6 games missed by Davis, 5 games missed by Jenkins, 6 games missed by Jones), and they probably upgraded the center position this off-season, even if only by default, with the addition of Ryan Bates.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bears didn’t add nearly as much on defense this off-season as they did on offense, but their defense was the better side of the ball last season (22nd in offensive DVOA, 17th in defensive DVOA), especially after acquiring Montez Sweat from the Commanders mid-season. Sweat was only with the team for half a year, but lead the team with 6 sacks in 9 games, while also adding 8 hits and a 13.3% pressure rate. Including his time with the Commanders, Sweat finished last season with 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, a 12.4% pressure rate and a 74.8 overall grade from PFF. 

That’s nothing new for Sweat, as the 2019 1st round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons, while totaling 34.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 60 games over that stretch. Equally reliable as a run stopper as he is as a pass rusher, Sweat was a great addition to this defense, even at a steep price (a 2nd round pick via trade and a 4-year, 98 million dollar extension that makes him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league). Still only in his age 28 season, Sweat is unlikely to drop off in 2024 and having him for a full season will be a significant benefit to this defense.

The rest of this position group is a concern, however. With Sweat only being added mid-season, DeMarcus Walker led this group with 714 snaps played and was pretty underwhelming, totaling 3.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate, while struggling against the run and finishing with a 59.1 overall grade from PFF. Without any other major additions at the position this off-season, Walker figures to have a significant role opposite Sweat again in 2024 and he figures to continue struggling. Walker had never played more than 458 snaps in a season prior to last season and has just 23 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 83 games in seven seasons in the league. Now in his age 30 season, it’s highly unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to remain mediocre at best.

Rasheem Green (385 snaps) and Yannick Ngakoue (592 snaps) also struggled in significant roles last season and, while neither was retained this off-season, the Bears other edge defender options for 2024 aren’t any better. Dominique Robinson is their top returning reserve at the position and he was arguably the worst of the bunch, with a 35.3 PFF grade on 242 snaps and a pitiful 3.2% pressure rate. A 7th round pick in 2022, Robinson also struggled with a 5.3% pressure rate and a 45.9 PFF grade on 549 snaps as a rookie and, even if he happens to be better in year three, he still figures to be a liability in a significant reserve role.

Austin Booker and Jacob Martin were added to the mix this off-season, but not much should be expected out of either, with Booker being a 5th round rookie and Martin being a career journeyman reserve who was signed to a contract of just 1-year, 1.3 million. Martin played just 192 snaps for the Colts last season, his 3rd team in the past two seasons, and has only played more than 400 snaps in a season once in six seasons in the league, while consistently receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF. Montez Sweat was a much needed addition to this group mid-season last year and having him for the full season in 2024 will be a boost to this defense, but the rest of this group is still a big concern.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Not much changes at the interior defender spot for the Bears in 2024. Justin Jones (740 snaps), Andrew Billings (506 snaps), Gervin Dexter (433 snaps), and Zacch Pickens (264 snaps) all saw significant action at the position last season. None of them missed any time with injury last season, which is unlikely to happen again, and Jones, who led the group in snaps played last season, left this off-season and wasn’t replaced, but Jones struggled mightily with a 49.3 PFF grade, so his absence might be addition by subtraction and both Dexter and Pickens were rookies last season who could step up in bigger roles in year two in 2024. They were mediocre with PFF grades of 50.9 and 54.9 respectively as rookies, but they were also drafted in the second and third round respectively and have the upside to take a step forward in their second year in the NFL.

Billings was the best of the bunch in 2023, finishing with a 66.3 PFF grade. He’s normally been a solid starter when healthy in his career, posting grades of 71.1, 69.3, and 76.4 on snap counts of 632, 657, and 478 respectively, with injuries limiting him to 72 snaps total in 2020 and 2021. His injury history is somewhat concerning, but aside from that 2-year stretch, he’s only missed three games in his last four healthy seasons, so he’s not necessarily an injury prone player. Still only in his age 29 season, Billings should remain a solid starter in 2024, as long as he can avoid any unexpected major injuries. This group is still thin behind Billings and the two second year players, but they could still add decent depth at this point in the off-season and it’s not a bad position group, especially if one or both of the young players can take a step forward in year two.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Bears didn’t make any additions at the linebacker position this off-season, but they overhauled the group in a big way last off-season, giving big contracts to Tremaine Edmunds (4 years, 72 million) and TJ Edwards (3 years, 19.5 million) as part of their off-season spending spree. Edwards was the cheaper of the two, but was by far the better of the two in his first season in Chicago, ranking 14th among off ball linebackers with a 79.6 PFF grade on 1,042 snaps, while Edmunds disappointed with a 56.6 PFF grade on 876 snaps.

Despite the contracts they got, neither of those results was a surprise. Edwards was a steal in free agency, having received grades of 76.3 and 84.8 from PFF on snap counts of 684 and 1,040 respectively in his final two seasons in Philadelphia before joining the Bears. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a couple years to become a starter, but he always flashed potential dating back to his rookie season and has developed into one of the most consistently good off ball linebackers in the league.

Edmunds, meanwhile, had a dominant final season in Buffalo with a 79.0 PFF grade on 760 snaps, leading to the Bears giving the 2018 first round pick that massive contract, but he had been inconsistent throughout his time with the Bills, receiving grades lower than 60 from PFF in three of five seasons. He’s always produced impressive tackle totals, but aside from his contract season in Buffalo, he has also always consistently missed a lot of tackles and has consistently struggled in coverage. 

Still only going into his age 26 season, Edmunds does have some bounce back potential, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever be consistently good enough to justify a contract that makes him the 3rd highest paid off ball linebacker in the league in terms of average annual salary. Fortunately, the Bears have Edwards, who should remain one of the better players in the league at the position and a steal at his current salary. Together, Edwards and Edmunds are a linebacker duo that is better than most around the league.

The Bears also have good depth at the linebacker position. Jack Sanborn went undrafted in 2022, but has shown potential in limited action in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 67.3 on snap counts of 330 and 412 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He’s best as a part-time player, primarily playing run defense in base packages, but he could also fill in for a few games as an every down linebacker as well. On top of that, 2023 5th round pick Noah Sewell flashed potential as a rookie, albeit on only 27 snaps. He’s inexperienced, but you could do a lot worse than him as a 4th linebacker who will probably only see significant action if there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this is an above average position group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Bears have some talented players on this defense like Montez Sweat and TJ Edwards, but their best defensive player in 2023 was cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who led all cornerbacks in the league with a 90.8 PFF grade, while allowing a ridiculous 33.3 QB rating on passes into his coverage and just 195 yards receiving allowed on 530 coverage snaps. Johnson had never had a season nearly that good before, as the 2020 2nd round pick received grades of 54.9, 64.2, and 62.9 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and the Bears rightfully locked him up long-term after his dominant 2023 campaign, giving him a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal that makes him the 7th highest paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He might not be quite as good again in 2024, in part because it’s really hard to be that good two years in a row and in part because he’s never been close to that good before, but I wouldn’t expect him to regress to his pre-2023 form and he’s obviously one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

The rest of the Bears’ cornerbacks aren’t nearly as good, but at least they have some promising young players with upside. Kyler Gordon was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and, after a disappointing rookie season in which he received a 49.8 PFF grade across 863 snaps, he took a big step forward in year two, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 646 snaps. Gordon might not necessarily be better in year three than he was in year two, but it’s unlikely he’ll regress back to his rookie year form and he could easily take another step forward. Tyrique Stevenson is also a recent second round pick, selected in 2023, and, unlike Gordon, he didn’t relly struggle as a rookie, with a 60.2 PFF grade across 830 snaps. He should remain at least a capable starting cornerback in 2024 and, like Gordon, also has the upside to take a step forward in 2024. 

Behind their top-3 on the depth chart, the Bears also have Terell Smith, who was only a 5th round pick in 2023, but who wasn’t bad with a 69.6 PFF grade across 377 snaps as a rookie. He could struggle if forced into a bigger role, but, barring injury, he won’t open the season any higher than 4th on the depth chart and he’s a promising prospect and good depth to have. #5 cornerback Jaylon Jones is also young and, while the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled with a 48.4 PFF grade on 466 snaps as a rookie, he was better with a 61.8 PFF grade on 148 snaps in year two. He also could struggle if forced into significant action again, but he would need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart for that to happen and you could do a lot worse than him as your 5th cornerback, especially given that he’s young and could continue improving.

The only big addition to this defense this off-season was safety Kevin Byard, who signed on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Byard is going into his age 31 season and his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he should still prove to be an upgrade at safety over departed veteran Eddie Jackson, who finished last season with a 58.6 PFF grade in 12 starts. Even at less than his prime form, Byard still had a 74.0 PFF grade last season and the fact that last season was his 2nd worst PFF grade of the past seven seasons is a testament to how consistently good Byard was in his prime, receiving a 90.2 PFF grade as recently as 2021. He is highly unlikely to be that good in 2024, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and, even if he continues declining, there’s a good chance he remains at least an above average starter. He’s also been very durable throughout his career, never once missing a game due to injury. He has a good chance to be a good value on a relatively inexpensive contract.

JaQuan Brisker remains as the other starting safety. Another young player in this secondary, Brisker was selected in the second round in 2022 and has been a solid starter thus far in his career, making 30 total starts in two seasons in the league and receiving grades from PFF of 67.0 and 66.7 respectively. Now in his third season in the league, he should continue at least being solid and he has the upside to take a step forward and have the best year of his career thus far.

The Bears also added veteran Jonathan Owens in free agency to give them a better third safety, after Elijah Hicks struggled with a 46.2 PFF grade on 487 snaps in that role in 2023. A relatively old player compared to much of this secondary in his age 29 season, Owens had mixed results as a starter with the Texans and Packers over the past two seasons, receiving a 48.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in 2022 and a 61.9 PFF grade on 774 snaps in 2023, but he’s not a bad third safety option. 

Hicks, meanwhile, will be the 4th safety and is not a bad fit for that role. Hicks was better on 168 snaps as a rookie, with a 63.2 PFF grade, and the 2022 7th round pick is still relatively young and could have some untapped upside. Top cornerback Jaylon Johnson might not be quite as good as he was a year ago, but the arrow is pointing up for the rest of this secondary, because of the potential of their young talent, as well as the upgrade that free agent addition Kevin Byard should provide over Eddie Jackson.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

If the Bears played as good all last season as they did down the stretch last season after their defense added Montez Sweat, they could have qualified for the post-season or at least come close in the weak NFC. This off-season, they added even more talent to this roster and almost definitely got a quarterback upgrade with Caleb Williams. With the NFC still being weak, I would expect this team to at least make the post-season, barring significant injuries, and if Williams can have a big rookie year, this team has enough talent around him to be contenders right away.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC North

Quarterback

Expectations were very low for the Bears last season, starting a rebuild that left them with by far the lowest combined average annual salary of any roster in the league, parting ways with numerous high-paid veterans last off-season, following mediocre finishes in 2019 (8-8), 2020 (8-8), and 2021 (6-11). The Bears surprised a lot of people with a 2-1 start in 2022, but went on to lose their last 11 games in a row after starting 3-3. Losing all those games will likely prove to be a good thing in the long run though, as the Bears earned the #1 pick for finishing with the worst record in the league, a huge asset for their rebuild, along with the league’s most cap space this off-season, after a year of minimal spending.

The #1 pick left the Bears with the choice between drafting one of the top quarterbacks, in a draft in which three quarterbacks ended up going in the first four picks, which would mean trading Justin Fields, the quarterback they selected 11th overall just two years ago, or trading the #1 pick and building around Fields as the quarterback of the future. The Bears chose the latter, sending the #1 pick to the Panthers for the 9th pick, the 61st pick, a 2024 first round pick, a 2025 second round pick, and talented young wide receiver DJ Moore.

Time will tell whether the Bears made the right move and it’s tough to evaluate their decision without knowing what kind of return Justin Fields would have brought in a trade, but the Bears’ decision makes sense as Fields is more of a proven commodity than any of the quarterbacks in this draft and likely still has untapped potential, only heading into his age 24 season. The downside with Fields compared to a rookie is he is two years into his rookie contract, meaning he’ll be due a hefty pay raise on a long-term extension within the next couple years, but the Bears have the cap space to afford that. 

Fields might not have the upside as a passer as some of the quarterbacks in this draft class and he has been inconsistent in that aspect of his game thus far in his career, completing 59.7% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, but he is a weapon as a runner, averaging 6.74 YPC with 10 touchdowns on 232 carries, and his inconsistent passing production has in large part been due to his lack of a supporting cast. With the Bears building around Fields this off-season, he has a good chance to take a leap forward as a passer in his third season in the league in 2023.

One area of concern is backup quarterback, with the Bears’ best options as of now being Nathan Peterman and PJ Walker, who have career QB ratings of 39.4 and 63.9 respectively. Fields’ playing style naturally leaves him more prone to injury and the Bears would be in big trouble if that happened without a capable option behind him. The Bears should address this position before training camp.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, a big part of the return from Carolina for the #1 pick was talented young receiver DJ Moore, who gives the Bears another big needed weapon in the receiving corps. The 24th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Panthers, Moore has been one of the best receivers in the league since entering the league, totaling the 11th most receiving yards in the league over the five years since he entered the league, despite regularly having mediocre quarterback play. 

Moore’s 63/888/7 slash line and 73.9 PFF rating in 2022 were his lowest since his rookie season, while his 1.74 yards per route run were the worst of his career, but those figures are all still above average, last season was arguably the worst quarterback play he’s ever had and, still only going into his age 26 season with minimal injury history (two games missed in five seasons), there’s no reason why Moore can’t bounce back now on a better offense in Chicago. His presence should be a big boost for this passing game.

Moore’s addition isn’t the only reason to be optimistic about this receiving corps either, as the Bears could also get a bounce back year from Darnell Mooney, who was limited to a 40/493/2 slash line in 12 games in an injury plagued 2022 season, but who also is just a season removed from a 81/1055/4 slash line as the Bears’ #1 receiver in Fields’ rookie season in 2021, and who is still only heading into his age 26 season and theoretically in the prime of his career. Despite a big drop off in receiving yards, Mooney wasn’t actually that much worse in 2022 than he was in 2021, with his PFF rating only dropping from 74.7 to 69.2 and his yards per route run only dropping from 1.72 to 1.58. 

Mooney isn’t as proven as Moore, with only one season of 1,000+ yards in three seasons in the league, and he likely won’t see the 140 targets he had in 2021 (11th most in the league), with Moore now in town, so he’s unlikely to be as productive overall as 2021, but he could easily be more efficient than he has been the past two seasons, with another talented receiver to take some of the coverage away from him. Moore will likely be the Bears’ de facto #1 receiver, but Mooney is a good #2 receiver to have as well.

The Bears also traded for another young receiver Chase Claypool at last year’s trade deadline. The Bears overpaid, giving up what ended up being the 32nd pick in the draft, for a receiver who did next to nothing in his 7 games with the Bears (14/140/0) and who only has one year left on his cost controlled rookie deal, but Claypool is still a talented receiver who should be able to give the Bears more than he did a year ago, now with a full off-season in the system under his belt. 

Claypool has seen his PFF rating (75.5 to 67.2 to 61.8) and yards per route run (1.90 to 1.67 to 1.07) drop off in each of the past two seasons since a promising rookie season in 2020, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has the potential to be a useful receiver for the Bears. They still overpaid, giving up a premium pick for a player who will likely be their third receiver this year, but he should be more useful for the Bears than he was a year ago.

With Moore coming in, Mooney likely to be healthier, and Claypool likely to be more productive, the Bears likely won’t need big roles from veteran journeymen Equanimeous St. Brown (555 snaps in 2022) and Dante Pettis (523 snaps), who will now be reserves if they even make the final roster. The Bears also used a 4th round pick on Cincinnati’s Tyler Scott and could get more out of 2022 3rd round pick Velus Jones, who couldn’t crack a weak wide receiver group as a rookie (158 snaps played), but who has the upside to give the Bears more in year two.

The Bears also have a promising young tight end in Cole Kmet, who they selected in the 2nd round in 2020. Kmet had a mediocre rookie season, but has seen his yards per route run average increase to 1.23 in 2021 and 1.27 in 2022, both decent numbers for a tight end, especially when you consider that Kmet has played on a mediocre offense overall over the past few years. He’s also proven to be a solid blocker as well and, only going into his age 24 season, could easily have more untapped upside as a pass catcher and run blocker. He probably won’t be a huge part of the Bears’ offense this season with an improved receiving corps around him, but he still should be a useful player for this offense.

Kmet will likely be backed up by former Packer Robert Tonyan, who the Bears added in free agency this off-season. Undrafted in 2017, Tonyan came out of nowhere to have a 60/668/12 slash line with the Packers in 2020 (1.55 yards per route run), but he benefited significantly from playing with Aaron Rodgers and, even with Rodgers as his quarterback, Tonyan has averaged just 1.22 yards per route run in his career outside of that 2020 campaign. He’s a solid backup who can make some starts if needed, but he’s unlikely to ever come close to repeating what he did in 2020. Overall, this is a much improved receiving corps from a year ago, which should lead to more consistent passing performances from young quarterback Justin Fields.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Along with DJ Moore, the 9th overall pick was a big part of what the Bears received in return for the top pick. The Bears traded down one more time from 9 to 10, but ultimately settled on Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright, who will also fill a big need for the Bears, whose offensive line play has been as big of a problem for their offense as their receiving corps has been. Larry Borom (7 starts) and Riley Reiff (10 starts) were the Bears’ primary right tackles last season, but both were middling at best and, even if he has some rookie struggles, Wright has a much higher upside long-term. Reiff is no longer with the team, while Borom will likely be the primary swing tackle, which is a good role for him, after holding his own in 15 starts over the past two seasons since being selected in the 5th round by the Bears in 2021.

Wright will play the right side because left tackle Braxton Jones was one of the few bright spots on this mediocre offensive line, finishing with a 75.4 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, 20th best among offensive tackles, despite only being a 5th round rookie. Jones is still unproven and the fact that the whole league let him fall to the 5th round a year ago can’t be ignored yet, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wasn’t quite as good in his second year in the league, but he also could easily still have further untapped upside and could be as good or even better in his second season in the league. At the very least, he should be a solid starter, with the upside for more.

Another bright spot on this offensive line last season was guard Teven Jenkins, who finished with a 80.7 PFF rafting in 11 starts, actually making him PFF’s third highest graded guard. Jenkins was a second round pick by the Bears in 2021, but he missed most of his rookie year with injury and was so horrible in the limited action he did see that some felt he was already a bust and wondered if he would even make the Bears’ team in 2022. 

When Jenkins couldn’t earn a starting job at tackle in 2022, the Bears kicked him inside to guard and, from his first full game at guard in week 5, he seemed to be significantly more comfortable at his new position, a full year removed from his major injury. He’s still relatively unproven and his season ended with another injury, so durability is a concern for a player who has made just 13 starts in his first two seasons in the league combined, but he has the upside to develop into one of the better guards in the league long-term if he can stay healthy. The selection of Darnell Wright to bookend Braxton Jones long-term ensures that Jenkins will stay at guard, which is the best case scenario for him.

In addition to the big return they got for the #1 pick, the Bears also used their league leading amount of cap space to address some needs in free agency, including the offensive line, which should get a big boost from free agent acquisition Nate Davis, who comes over from the Titans on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. A third round pick in 2019, Davis struggled his rookie season, but has turned into a solid player with PFF grades of 71.1, 69.2, and 70.6 over the past three seasons respectively, with his 2022 grade ranking 16th in the league among guards. He’s not an elite guard, but he’s a solid starter with experience (54 career starts) and is still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, so his contract should prove to be a good value and he fills a need for the Bears’ upfront.

With Davis coming in and Jenkins staying at guard, the Bears will likely kick veteran Cody Whitehair inside to center, but he has experience at all three interior offensive line positions and he should be an upgrade over mediocre incumbent Sam Mustipher, who is no longer with the team. Whitehair’s age is becoming a concern, heading into his age 31 season, but he has been at least a solid starter in all seven seasons in the league (107 starts) and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued that into 2023. 

Whitehair should still be a better option than Lucas Patrick, who has the versatility to play all three interior positions and who has made 31 starts over the past three seasons, but who has been middling at best in those three seasons (PFF ratings of 64.8, 57.2, and 55.9 respectively) and who would be best as a versatile reserve rather than a starter. With Nate Davis and Darnell Wright being added to the starting lineup, the Bears have a noticeably better group upfront this year than a year ago and, with several players who were forced into starting roles last year now being reserves, their depth is a lot better as well. This is a solid group with the upside to be more, with most of their starters aside from Whitehair being relatively young.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Bears didn’t retain running back David Montgomery as a free agent this off-season, after he lead the team in carries in each of the past four seasons, but Montgomery was mediocre for most of his time as the starter in Chicago, averaging just 3.94 YPC on 915 carries over the past four seasons, and the Bears feel they have a better option in 2021 6th round pick Khalil Herbert, who has averaged 5.02 YPC on 232 carries as Montgomery’s backup over the past two seasons, including a 5.67 YPC on 129 carries in 2022 that dwarfed Montgomery’s 3.99 YPC on 201 carries.

The gap between Montgomery and Herbert is smaller when you look at carry success rate, with neither back doing a good job of keeping this offense on schedule, as Herbert ranked 34th out of 42 eligible backs with a 47% carry success rate and Montgomery ranking 39th with a 46% carry success rate, but, any way you look at it, Herbert was their most effective running back last season and Montgomery’s departure should open up a bigger role for him. He wasn’t as effective as his impressive YPC average last season would suggest and it’s unclear how he’ll handle a larger workload, but he has a good chance to be an upgrade over what Montgomery was last season.

The Bears also added a couple other backs this off-season to take some of the workload away from Herbert, signing veteran D’Onta Foreman to a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal in free agency and then using a 4th round pick on Texas’ Roschon Johnson. Foreman is a bigger back at 6-0 235 who can take some short yardage carries away from the 5-9 212 pound Herbert and, after an injury plagued start to his career, the 2017 3rd round pick has averaged 4.40 YPC on 336 carries over the past two seasons, with carry success rates of 50% and 52% respectively. He’s a good power complement to the smaller, speedier Herbert. 

Johnson, meanwhile, will likely be the #3 back as a rookie, but should still have a role in passing situations, where his upside intrigues the Bears. Neither Foreman (23 catches in 43 career games), nor Herbert (23 catches in 30 career games) are much use in passing situations, so many of those snaps will go to the rookie. Johnson could prove to be overwhelmed in that role in year one, so passing down back could be a position of weakness for the Bears in 2022, but this isn’t a bad backfield overall, with Herbert and Foreman both being solid early down options and Johnson at least possessing upside in passing situations.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

As bad as the Bears’ were on offense last season, their defense was even worse. While their offense ranked 25th in DVOA, their defense was dead last and by a pretty wide margin. Fortunately, defensive performance tends to be much less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and the Bears also added a significant amount of talent to their defense this off-season, making use of their league leading cap space. At the interior defender position, the Bears didn’t make any splash additions, but they didn’t have a single interior defender earn higher than a 49.2 grade from PFF last season so it won’t take much for the Bears to be better at this position in 2023.

Justin Jones (746 snaps), Armon Watts (531 snaps), Angelo Blackson (393 snaps), and Mike Pennel (363 snaps) were their top-4 interior defenders last season and only Jones remains for 2023. Jones also has a good chance to be better in 2023 than 2022, as his 45.8 PFF grade from 2022 was the worst of his career. Jones’ better years came on much lower snap counts than his 2022 snap count (his 527 snaps he played in 2020 were previously his career high), but the Bears probably won’t need as many snaps from him in a better position group in 2023. He’ll probably remain a mediocre option and he only has a PFF grade higher than 60 in one of his five seasons in the league, but he should be better than last year and he should play a smaller role as well.

To try to improve this position group, the Bears used second and third round picks on Florida’s Gervon Dexter and South Carolina’s Zacch Pickens respectively and added veteran Andrew Billings in free agency. Even as rookies, I would expect Dexter and Pickens to be upgrades over what the Bears had at the position last season, though it would not be a surprise at all to see both players go through growing pains in year one. Both have the upside to be solid starters long-term, but we might not see that from them this season.

Billings, meanwhile, is just a situational run stuffer, managing only a 6.0% pressure rate for his career, but he didn’t break the bank on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal and, even just as a run stuffer, he should be an upgrade over what the Bears had a year ago. His 72.3 run defense grade from PFF in 2022 was a career high, but he also had grades of 68.8 and 68.4 in 2018 and 2019 respectively, which were his last two healthy seasons prior to last year, with most of 2020 and 2021 lost to injury. Durability remains a concern for Billings going forward, but he’s only in his age 28 season and should remain at least a solid run stuffer as long as he can stay on the field.

The Bears also signed DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green, who are hybrid players who can play both on the edge and on the interior of the Bears’ defensive line. On the interior, their primary role will likely be as situational pass rushers in sub packages and obvious passing situations. Walker was the bigger signing, coming over on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal while Green got 2.5 million on a one-year deal, and Walker will likely have the bigger impact as well. 

A second round pick in 2017, Walker’s career got off to a slow start, but he has proven to be a late bloomer over the past couple seasons, totaling 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate as a part-time player for the Texans and Titans and is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so I wouldn’t expect a sudden drop off from him. Walker leaves something to be desired against the run and has never played more than 458 snaps in a season so he’s a projection to a larger role, but he should be a useful situational pass rusher for them and his ability to play both inside and outside will be valuable as well.

Green, meanwhile, has played bigger snap counts in his career, averaging 581 snaps per season over the past four years, but he doesn’t have the same pass rush productivity (8.5% pressure rate over those four seasons) and isn’t much of a run defender either. In fact, his 62.4 PFF grade last season was the highest of his career, finishing below 60 in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. The 2018 3rd round pick is still only in his age 26 season and could theoretically have untapped upside, but he’ll likely have to play a big role again on this defense and I would expect him to continue being middling at best. The Bears’ interior defender group should be better in 2023 than it was in 2022, but that could largely be by default.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

While Walker and Green will see some action on the interior in passing situations, they will primarily be counted on for big roles on the edge. That’s because, like the interior defender position, the Bears didn’t have a single edge defender play a snap for them last season and earn even an average grade from PFF, but, unlike the interior defender position, the Bears didn’t add any other players of note this off-season, relying primarily on Walker and Green, as well as holdovers Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson, who finished last season 120th and 124th respectively among 129 eligible edge defenders on PFF, across snap counts of 649 and 541 respectively.

Gipson and Robinson are both recent 5th round picks (2020 and 2022 respectively) and both have the upside to be better this season than last season, but both are still underwhelming options and, even if they are better than a year ago, they could still have below average seasons. Gipson probably has the better chance to have a solid season, as he received a PFF grade of 70.4 on 489 snaps in 2021, but that’s his only above average season in three seasons in the league and it came on a much smaller snap count than the one that he handled last year and that he will likely see again in 2023, in once again an underwhelming position group. He’s a decent pass rusher with a career 10.0% pressure rate, but he has struggled mightily against the run throughout his career.

Robinson, meanwhile, could take a step forward in year two, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a solid rotation player, given where he was drafted and how much he struggled as a rookie, particularly as a pass rusher, managing just a 5.3% pressure rate. Walker and Green aren’t bad additions and could easily be better than what the Bears had at the edge defender position a year ago and Gipson and Robinson theoretically have untapped upside, but, even if they’re better at this position than a year ago, this still figures to be a position of weakness for the Bears in 2023.

Grade: C-

Linebackers

The position on defense where the Bears committed the most resources this off-season is the off ball linebacker position. Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards were signed to contracts worth 72 million over 4 years (4th highest average annual value among off ball linebackers) and 19.5 million over 3 years respectively and both figure to play close to every down for this team. Edmunds is the bigger name and has the most upside as a former first round pick only going into his age 25 who earned a PFF grade of 79.0 in 2022, but Edmunds is a one-year wonder in terms of earning the grade from PFF that he did, struggling mightily in coverage earlier in his career before breaking out with a 88.1 coverage grade in 2022.

Because of Edmunds past struggles and his bigger contract, Edwards is likely to prove to be the better value of the two signings, earning grades of 66.5, 76.3, and 84.8 from PFF over the past three seasons respectively and also still being relatively young like Edmunds, only going into his age 27 season. It’s possible that neither Edmunds nor Edwards is quite as good as a year ago, when they earned the 11th highest and 2nd highest grade respectively among off ball linebackers from PFF, both doing so across 1,000+ snaps each, but both should remain at least above average every down linebackers and both should be significant upgrades over the underwhelming linebacking corps the Bears had a year ago. 

The only off ball linebacker of note that the Bears brought back from last year’s team is Jack Sanborn. The Bears won’t have much need for a third linebacker with Edmunds and Edwards playing every down, but they do play a 4-3 defense, which means they’ll use a third linebacker in certain base packages and that role will likely fall to Sanborn, who flashed some potential on 330 snaps last season, despite being an undrafted rookie. He would probably be a big drop off from Edmunds or Edwards if he had to fill in as an every down injury replacement, but he should be able to hold his own in a situational role. His biggest competition for the third linebacker job will be veteran special teamer Dylan Cole and 5th round rookie Noah Sewell, both of whom would be underwhelming options. Led by every down players Edmunds and Edwards, this is a talented linebacking corps and their depth isn’t bad either.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Bears didn’t make any big additions in the secondary this off-season, but there is still reason to believe they can be better in this unit in 2023. For one, they have a pair of 2022 2nd round picks who could take a step forward in year two. Kyler Gordon improving would be the most impactful of the two, as the Bears are counting on him as a starting cornerback, but he struggled mightily in that role as a rookie, finishing 124th out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF across 14 starts (863 snaps). 

That’s definitely not a good start to his career and even if he is better in 2023 it could largely be by default, but a bad rookie year also doesn’t mean that Gordon can’t develop into an above average starter long-term, even if he doesn’t become that in his second season in the league. Safety JaQuan Brisker was the other rookie second round pick who started for the Bears in the secondary last season and he held up much better in year one than Gordon did, finishing with a solid 67.0 grade in 15 starts (954 snaps). He should at least be a solid starter again and has the upside for more in his second year in the league.

The Bears also could get a healthier year out of fellow starting safety Eddie Jackson, who was limited to 697 snaps in 12 games last season. Jackson was PFF’s 15th ranked safety last season before he got hurt and is one of their best players when healthy, so his return will be a welcome one, but he also has a history of inconsistency and might not be as good in 2023 as he was in 2022 before getting hurt. Jackson was also PFF’s #1 ranked safety in 2018, but, aside from that season and last season, he hasn’t had another season with 70 grade or higher from PFF and he’s finished below 60 twice in six seasons in the league. He’s still relatively young in his age 29 season, but his inconsistent history makes it tough to count on him being a high level starter again, even if he ends up playing more games than he did a year ago.

Jaylon Johnson is another starter who missed time in the Bears’ secondary last season, limited to 656 snaps in 11 games. A second round pick in 2020, Johnson was middling at best before going down last season (62.9 PFF rating) and his career best PFF rating in three seasons in the league is just 64.2 in 2021, but he could still have untapped upside, still only going into his age 24 season and, even if he doesn’t take a step forward this season, he should still be a welcome return given how much the Bears’ cornerbacks struggled in his absence last season, with Johnson being the only one who played significant snaps who even earned a middling grade from PFF.

The one addition the Bears did make to this group this off-season was using another second round pick on the unit, selecting Miami’s Tyrique Stevenson, which is another reason to expect better play out of the Bears’ secondary in 2023. Stevenson will likely have growing pains in year one, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Jaylon Jones (48.4 PFF rating across 466 snaps) or Kindle Vildor (59.4 PFF rating across 531 snaps), who will likely be reserves at best in 2023 with Stevenson being added and Johnson returning from injury. 

Stevenson figures to be the third cornerback, behind Johnson and Gordon, and the Bears added another cornerback in the 5th round (Minnesota’s Terell Smith) to give them additional depth at the position. Depth is still a concern at the cornerback position if one of their top-3 cornerbacks gets hurt, as it is at the safety position, where 2022 7th round pick Elijah Hicks (just 168 defensive snaps played as a rookie) and 2023 7th round pick Kendall Williamson are penciled in as the primary reserves, but, even with depth concerns and an overall young, inexperienced unit, it wouldn’t be hard for this group to be better than they were a year ago.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Bears finished with the worst record in the league last season, but that was largely by design, as the Bears’ primary goal last season was to accumulate cap space and draft capital that they could use to rebuild their team in 2023 and beyond. The Bears also probably weren’t the worst team in the league last season, despite their record, as 8 of their 14 losses came by one score or less and both the Texans and Colts finished with a lower DVOA than they did.

The Bears did a good job using their cap space and draft capital to rebuild this roster and are a much more talented team now than they were a year ago, with key additions that include wide receiver DJ Moore, first round offensive tackle Darnell Wright, guard Nate Davis, and off ball linebackers TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, all of whom should give them above average play at positions where they did not get that a year ago. 

The Bears might not be a playoff team in 2023, but considering how many of their losses were close a year ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Bears turned a significant amount of those losses into wins this season and, in a division that will likely see both the Packers and Vikings decline from a year ago, the Bears have a shot to go from worst to first and earn a surprise division title. I don’t know if I would predict that happening, but it’s definitely a possibility and, even if they don’t win the division, the Bears should still be able to compete for a wild card spot in an overall weak NFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC North